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National Drought Summary -- January 13, 2009

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Plains
Dry conditions continue to plague Texas and Oklahoma.  This week D0 was brought out to cover all of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles that was previously in the no drought category.  This also extended into eastern New Mexico where precipitation in 2008 was 68-76 percent of normal.  In west central Texas, many rangeland and farm reports indicate worsening conditions, and 1-category changes were made in this region.  The north and central Texas regions were degraded 1 category as well to D1, primarily west of I-35.  Burn restrictions or bans are in place in 95 Texas counties, as well as most of those in south central Oklahoma.  In Oklahoma, precipitation deficits over the last 90 days, and little measurable precipitation of any type during that period, justified further degradation in south central Oklahoma and the panhandle. 

The Southeast
Significant precipitation in the last 7 days improved drought conditions throughout the region, leaving the Appalachian mountains in D1 or better.  Reductions in D1 were made in Tennessee, Virginia, and Georgia.  A reduction of D3 was made in South Carolina and Georgia, as well as 1-category improvements in the surrounding areas.  Substantial long-term dryness remains.  D0 was also spread to the far southwest of Alabama.

The West
A dry, quiet weather pattern settled in the West this week, but snowpack remaining from recent storms brought many improvements in the Rocky Mountain region.  Montana was improved from D1 to D0 in the far northwest, and a previously large area of D0 is now in no drought, primarily due to snowpack and precipitation for the water year thus far (October 1-present).  Some reduction in D0 extent was also made in the eastern part of the state.  Colorado Rockies have also received normal to above normal snowpack and precipitation for the water year thus far, enough to remove D0 from this region.  The Front Range and plains remain in D0 or D1.  In the far west, low streamflow and precipitation this season in the Salinas River justified an extension of D2 over this area south of Monterey Bay.  

The Midwest and Northeast
Further improvements were made this week in Kentucky, West Virginia and areas east of here due to significant precipitation in this region in the last few months.  This rainfall did not benefit southern Ohio as much, so D1 lingers there.  Long-term dryness remains, however, since the severe drought of 2007, so D0 was kept in Kentucky.  Some reduction of the extent of D0 in Pennsylvania is also depicted this week.  No other changes were made in the Great Lakes region.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico
No changes were made this week.

Looking Ahead:
In the next 6-10 days, warm and dry conditions are forecast for the southwest region around Arizona and New Mexico.  The high pressure currently over the western states will gradually weaken.  Below normal temperatures are expected in the Pacific Northwest and east of the Mississippi.  An area of wetter than normal conditions is forecast in the northern Rockies.  In Alaska, above normal precipitation is forecast over the Aleutians and western part of the state, along with above normal temperatures, which could help alleviate current D0 there.  Below normal precipitation could occur along the Canadian border.  Looking further, in the 8-14 day range, below normal temperatures are forecast throughout the lower 48 states as Arctic air is forecast to dip down.  Southeast and northern Alaska are expected to be warmer than average for this time of year with a strong ridge over the state.  Precipitation could be above normal from the northern Rockies to the western Appalachian region with a more active storm track, and below normal along the west coast, southern tier, eastern seaboard and southern Alaska.

Author: Laura Edwards, Western Regional Climate Center

D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.

Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought

Drought or Dryness Types
A ... Agricultural
H ... Hydrological

Updated January 14, 2009