This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-326) May 12, 1997. The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on June 13, 1997. WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS May 12, 1997 UNITED STATES: Favorably drier weather in the upper Midwest aided the slow recession of floodwaters throughout the drainage basins. Spring wheat planting is lagging well behind average due to the excessive wetness and cool weather. Corn planting advanced rapidly in the Midwest, with favorable weather conditions in late April and early May. Winter wheat development resumed after the damaging freeze in mid-April from western Kansas to central Texas. Recent drier weather in eastern Texas improved rice planting conditions following earlier delays. Cool, wet weather in the Northwest slowed early spring growth. CANADA: Persistent cold in the Prairies precludes significant early spring grain and oilseed planting. Flooding continues in the Red River Valley, with some level of planting delays imminent. SOUTH AMERICA: Near to above normal April rainfall eased dryness in central Argenina, stablizing soybean yields and increasing topsoil moisture for upcoming winter wheat planting. In southern Brazil, below normal April rainfall promoted rapid soybean harvesting. However, in portions of Argentina and southern Brazil, more rain is needed for winter wheat planting. EUROPE: Persistent dryness hurt non-irrigated winter grains in Portugal and southern Spain and limited moisture for winter grain development and newly emerging spring-sown crops in England, France, the Benelux countries, and northern Italy. Cool, wet weather in southeastern Europe in April slowed winter grain development and spring grain planting. Sub-freezing temperatures on April 18 may have damaged flowering orchards, vines, and vegetable crops in southern France and Italy. Increasing precipitation since April 20 in western Europe and northern Italy eased prolonged dryness, improving growing conditions for crops. FSU-WESTERN: Near- to above-normal precipitation in April over Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics benefited winter grains and increased topsoil moisture for spring grain planting. In Russia and Ukraine, spring grain planting is progressing ahead of last year's pace, but corn and sunflower planting lags last year. NORTHWEST AFRICA: Widespread rain from April 18-22, 1997 in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia arrived too late to signifcantly improve yield propsects for drought-stricken winter grain crops. Periodic hot weather since April 28 hastened maturity in winter grains in Morocco, parts of Algeria, and Tunisia. MIDDLE EAST: Warmer, somewhat drier weather since mid-April enhances crop growth in Iran. The dryness extends into eastern Syria, although temperatures generally remain below normal. Cool, showery weather over Turkey maintains unfavorable conditions for winter wheat development and cotton emrgence. SOUTH AFRICA: April showers were unfavorable for maturing corn but increased moisture for winter wheat establishment. Cool, dry weather over the past few weeks has aided corn drydown. Moisture reserves are generally favorable for winter wheat planting, except for a few dry locations in Western Cape. EASTERN ASIA: Adequate moisture exists for vegetative to reproductive winter wheat across the North China Plains. Persistent April showers slowed early rice development across southern China, but sunnier weather in early May, favored growth. Topsoil are somehwat dry for spring wheat planting in Manchuria. SOUTHEAST ASIA: Below normal rainfall continued in April across the Philippines, reducing moisture supplies for main-season crops. Showers slowed main-season rice harvesting across Java. In Thailand, near to above normal April rainfall slowed second-crop rice harvesting but increased moisture supplies for the upcoming main-season rice crop. AUSTRALIA: Recent showers in the southeastern winter grain belt have increased topsoil moisture for germination. However, soaking rain are required to adequately recharge subsoil moisture reserves following a protracted dry spell. Farther north, sorghum and cotton harvesting progressed, as did early barley and wheat planting. Topsoils have dried out in winter grain areas of east-central Australia but subsoil moisture reserves are generally favorable from the wet summer. In the west, scattered, light rain maintains generally favorable winter planting conditions, but more rain would be welcomed for proper establishment. (More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility UNITED STATES: Paralyzing spring storms produced heavy snow and blizzard conditions across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, already inundated by significant snowmelt runoff into the river drainage basins. Beneficial rain fell over most hard red winter wheat areas in early April, but bitter cold air poured into the Great Plains breaking low temperature records and threatening jointing wheat in southern crop areas. Wet weather slowed fieldwork progress in eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley, while dry weather favored planting progress in the Southeast. SOUTH AMERICA: Below-normal rainfall continued throughout most of March, reducing soybean yields in Argentina. The dryness, however, favored corn and sunflower harvesting. In southern Brazil, below-normal March rainfall favored soybean maturation and harvesting. However, dryness late in the month stressed late-filling soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul. EUROPE: Persistent dryness in Spain and Portugal lowered crop prospects for nonirrigated winter grains and limited topsoil moisture for spring-sown crops. Well-below-normal precipitation in March in France and the United Kingdom limited moisture for winter grain development but allowed rapid spring grain planting. Mild weather and periodic showers in Germany favored winter grain development and caused only minor planting delays. In eastern Europe, although near- to above-normal precipitation in March provided adequate moisture for winter grains which resumed spring tillering, it slowed spring grain planting, especially in southern areas. FSU-WESTERN: Cold, wet weather during the second half of March prevented further greening of winter grains in Ukraine and kept winter grains dormant in Russia. Furthermore, the cold wet conditions halted early season fieldwork. In early April, a warming trend accomapnied several days of dryness, allowing a resumption in early season fieldwork and prompting further greening of winter grains. NORTHWEST AFRICA: Drought continued to reduce yield prospects for winter grains in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. Recent showers helped stabilize conditions for drought-stressed crops. SOUTH AFRICA: Frequent, locally heavy showers, accompanied by below-normal temperatures, kept filling to maturing corn unfavorably wet throughout March. Patchy frost in early April likely causes no significant corn damage. Coastal showers since late March preclude early sugarcane harvests. Winter wheat planting (April to June) prospects are favorable in Orange Free State and environs due to recent wetness. More rain is needed in western crop areas of Western Cape for wheat germination. EASTERN ASIA: Near- to above-normal March rainfall covered most of China, aiding winter grains and boosting irrigation supplies. Only portions of Manchuria and the Yangtze Valley received below normal rainfall. SOUTHEAST ASIA: Below normal March rainfall favored main-season rice harvesting in Java. Rain during late-March and early-April favored rainfed second-crop rice in northern and central Thailand, but slowed harvesting in the east. Below normal March rainfall prevailed across peninsular Malaysia and most of the Philippines, reducing moisture supplies. AUSTRALIA: Heavy late-March showers along Queensland's coast increase moisture for sugarcane but reportedly cause local flooding and damage. The rain affects only fringe cotton and sorghum areas as dryness over the bulk of interior summer cropland favors maturation. Beneficial rain improves pre-planting moisture levels in winter grain areas of Western Australia but the southeast was dry. (More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility. PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1997/98 May 1997 WHEAT -----------1996/97------------- Change Current Monthly Monthly From Country Forecast Change Change 1995/96 MMT MMT (Percent) (Percent) World 578.4 NA NA -0 Production is forecast lower due to reduced output in both the United States and the total foreign category. United States 61.6 NA NA -1 Production is forecast lower due to a decline in harvested area. Total Foreign 516.9 NA NA -0 Production is forecast lower due mainly to reductions in Australia, Canada, Argentina, and Northwest Africa. Algeria 0.8 NA NA -64 Production is forecast lower due to drought which reduced area and yield potential. Morocco 2.5 NA NA -58 Production is forecast lower due to an excessively wet fall that reduced area and an extended dry growing season that lowered yield prospects. Tunisia 0.9 NA NA -55 Production is forecast lower due to unfavorably dry weather that reduced area and yield prospects. Brazil 2.5 NA NA -22 Production is forecast lower due to a reduction in area based on weaker domestic prices. Wheat planting has commenced under dry conditions. Australia 18.5 NA NA -21 Production is forecast lower based on a return to average yield, a reduction from last season's record. Area remains unchanged from 1996/97. Canada 26.0 NA NA -15 Production is forecast lower due to a normal rotation into canola and favorable canola prices. Yield is forecast to be near-average. Some planting in Manitoba will be delayed due to recent flooding. Argentina 14.0 NA NA -12 Production is forecast lower. Area is forecast down from last year's near-record level. Fertilizer use is expected to be high again this season. Iran 10.5 NA NA -5 Production is forecast lower due to reduced area and yield caused by pockets of dry weather and below-normal temperatures. Pakistan 16.0 NA NA -5 Production is forecast lower due to reduced area and yield. Dry weather at the initial stages of crop development, declining use of inputs, and excessive rainfall near harvest reduced yield potential. European Union 97.9 NA NA -1 Production is forecast lower as yield is expected to retract from its 1996/97 record level. Harvested area is forecast at a record, up 3 percent from 1996/97. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are forecast to have large crops, while Spain's crop is suffering from drought. Turkey 16.0 NA NA NC Production is forecast unchanged from last season; however, harvested area is slightly higher. Ukraine 17.5 NA NA +30 Production is forecast higher as area and yield are estimated above last season's level. Currently, winter wheat is in good condition. Eastern Europe 33.2 NA NA +27 Production is forecast higher due to increased harvested area and yield. Wheat output in Poland and Albania is forecast nearly unchanged from 1996/97, while output in Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary is projected above last season. Saudi Arabia 1.5 NA NA +25 Production is forecast up resulting from the Government's increase in the production quota to rebuild stocks. Kazakstan 8.5 NA NA +10 Production is forecast higher. Yields are projected to rebound from last season's drought reduced level. Mexico 3.4 NA NA +6 Production is forecast higher due to increased area in the irrigated northwestern wheat-growing region. China 114.0 NA NA +5 Production is forecast at a record due to increases in yield and area. Weather has been ideal for the winter crop, and conditions are generally favorable for spring wheat plantings. Egypt 5.9 NA NA +3 Production is forecast above last year's crop as irrigation supplies were adequate this season. India 64.5 NA NA +3 Production is forecast at a bumper level due to increased area and yield. Harvest activity has started. Russia 35.0 NA NA +0 Production is forecast at virtually the same level as 1996/97 due to a decrease in area, but increase in yield. Below-normal levels of winterkill have been reported. COARSE GRAINS World 898.9 NA NA -0 Production is forecast down marginally as a decrease in the total foreign category more than offset an increase in the United States. United States 278.4 NA NA +4 Production is forecast higher as increases in corn, oats, and rye more than offset decreases in barley and sorghum. Total Foreign 620.5 NA NA -2 Production is lower due mainly to reductions in China, Argentina, and Canada. Iran 2.8 NA NA -12 Production is forecast lower due to decline in barley area and yield. Argentina 15.8 NA NA -11 Production is forecast lower as corn area and yield are projected to decline. Input use is expected to be strong. Australia 8.6 NA NA -6 Production is forecast lower as yields are forecast to return to average levels. Barley output is projected lower, while sorghum is higher. Canada 26.8 NA NA -5 Production is forecast down from 1996/97. According to a Statistics Canada report, barley, rye, and oat areas are lower due to an increase in canola area. Corn area is projected higher than last season. China 135.2 NA NA -4 Production is forecast below the 1996/97 record level. Corn output is forecast lower due to a reduction in area. Kazakstan 3.1 NA NA -3 Production is forecast below last season's level as barley area continues to decline. Russia 30.9 NA NA -3 Production is forecast lower as oat and rye area continue to decrease. Corn and barley output are forecast higher. European Union 102.0 NA NA -2 Production is forecast down from 1996/97. Harvested area is forecast up 2 percent from 1996/97; however, yield is projected below last season's record level. Corn output is forecast at a record level due primarily to continued bumper crops in Italy and France. Barley production is forecast lower mainly due to drought in Spain. Thailand 4.2 NA NA NC Production is forecast unchanged from 1996/97. Ukraine 13.3 NA NA +40 Production is forecast sharply higher than last year's drought-reduced season. Harvested area for barley is lower, but higher for corn. Turkey 10.3 NA NA +4 Production is forecast up from 1996/97 due to an increase in corn area. Barley production prospects are unchanged from last season. South Africa 9.2 NA NA +4 Production is forecast higher. Corn output is raised slightly due to increased yield, while area is projected to decline. Eastern Europe 50.8 NA NA +2 Production is forecast to be larger than last season. Barley production is forecast up from 1996/97 in Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, and Romania. Corn production is forecast to decline in Hungary and Romania. Mexico 26.0 NA NA +2 Production is forecast up from 1996/97. Average yield is forecast for corn, while area is forecast to increase slightly. RICE (MILLED BASIS) RICE (MILLED BASIS) FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World production is forecast at 377.3 million tons, virtually unchanged from 1996/97. Foreign production for 1997/98 is forecast at 372.0 million tons, up 0.2 million or less than 1 percent from 1996/97. Rice production in the United States is forecast at 5.3 million tons, down 0.3 million or 5 percent from 1996/97. OILSEEDS OILSEEDS FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World oilseed production is forecast at 273.0 million tons, up 15.2 million or 6 percent from 1996/97. Foreign production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 192.2 million tons, up 9.2 million or 5 percent from last year. Total oilseed production in the United States is forecast at 80.8 million tons, up 5.9 million or 8 percent from last year. COTTON COTTON FORECAST FOR 1997/98: World cotton production is forecast at 87.5 million bales, down 0.4 million or less than 1 percent from 1996/97. Total foreign production is forecast at 69.0 million bales, nearly the same as 1996/97. U.S. production is forecast at 18.5 million bales, down 0.4 million or 2 percent from 1996/97. PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1996/97 WHEAT -----------1996/97------------- Change Current Monthly Monthly From Country Forecast Change Change 1995/96 MMT MMT (Percent) (Percent) World 581.2 -0.3 -0 +8 Production for 1996/97 is estimated lower due to a decline in total foreign output. United States 62.1 NC NC +5 No change this month. Total Foreign 519.1 -0.3 -0 +8 Production is estimated lower as declines in the EU-15 and Iran more than offset an increase in Argentina. COARSE GRAINS World 899.9 +3.7 +0 +13 Production for the 1996/97 crop is estimated higher this month due to an increase in the total foreign category. United States 267.6 NC NC +28 No change this month. Total Foreign 632.4 +3.7 +1 +7 Production is estimated higher for China and India which more than offset declines for the EU-15, South Africa, and Chile. RICE (MILLED BASIS) World 377.4 +0.5 +0 +2 Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign category. United States 5.6 NC NC -1 No change this month. Total Foreign 371.8 +0.5 +0 +2 Production is estimated higher due to an increase in India. India 80.5 +0.5 +1 +1 Production is estimated at higher based on preliminary estimates from the major producing states. OILSEEDS World 257.8 -1.7 -0 +0 Production is estimated lower due to reductions in both the United States and the total foreign category. United States 74.8 -0.1 -0 +8 Production is estimated lower due to a reduction in cottonseed yield. Total Foreign 183.0 -1.5 -1 -2 Production is forecast lower mainly due to downward revisions for soybean and sunflowerseed estimates in South America. Argentina 18.6 -1.2 -6 -4 Production is estimated lower based on reduced soybean, sunflowerseed, and peanut yields. Extended dryness in southern Santa Fe and Cordoba lowered yield prospects. Brazil 27.2 -0.5 -2 +11 Production is estimated lower due to dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul which reduced soybean yields. Near- average yields are projected for the other soybean growing regions. Bolivia 1.0 -0.2 -0 +1 Production is estimated lower resulting from dry conditions which reduced yield expectations to slightly below average. Production is still projected to be a record. Paraguay 2.8 -0.1 -4 +4 Production is estimated lower due to dry conditions which reduced soybean yield. China 40.9 +0.5 +1 -5 Production is estimated higher based on an increase in soybean area. Government sources indicate that harvested soybean area is above earlier expectations. PALM OIL World 16.7 NC NC +6 No change this month. Production is forecast at a record. COTTON -----------1996/97------------- Change Current Monthly Monthly From Country Forecast Change Change 1995/96 MBALES MBALES (Percent) (Percent) World 88.0 -0.2 -0 -5 Production is forecast lower due to declines in the United States and the total foreign category. United States 19.9 -0 -0 +6 Production is estimated lower due to a reduction in yield. Total Foreign 69.0 -0.2 -0 -7 Production is forecast lower due to reductions in Argentina and Paraguay which more than offset an increase in Australia. Argentina 1.7 -0.2 -11 -12 Production is forecast lower due to dry spells in January and March which reduced yield potential. Australia 2.6 +0.1 +4 +35 Production is forecast higher resulting from improved yield prospects as pre-harvest and harvest weather has been excellent. WHEAT : World Production Estimates 1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1997/98 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | May 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. MT 538.392 581.242 578.436 Area MIL. HA 219.631 230.816 227.973 Yield MT/HA 2.451 2.518 2.537 UNITED STATES Production MIL. MT 59.400 62.099 61.547 Area MIL. HA 24.664 25.435 24.685 Yield MT/HA 2.408 2.441 2.493 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. MT 478.992 519.143 516.889 Area MIL. HA 194.967 205.381 203.288 Yield MT/HA 2.457 2.528 2.543 ARGENTINA Production MIL. MT 9.200 15.900 14.000 Area MIL. HA 4.781 6.900 6.300 Yield MT/HA 1.924 2.304 2.222 AUSTRALIA Production MIL. MT 16.975 23.500 18.500 Area MIL. HA 9.721 11.000 11.000 Yield MT/HA 1.746 2.136 1.682 CANADA Production MIL. MT 25.037 30.500 26.000 Area MIL. HA 11.141 12.650 11.700 Yield MT/HA 2.247 2.411 2.222 EU-15 Production MIL. MT 86.161 99.003 97.850 Area MIL. HA 16.161 16.784 17.275 Yield MT/HA 5.331 5.899 5.664 FSU-12 Production MIL. MT 59.320 62.970 68.170 Area MIL. HA 45.358 48.155 47.605 Yield MT/HA 1.308 1.308 1.432 EASTERN EUROPE Production MIL. MT 34.970 26.219 33.200 Area MIL. HA 9.710 8.701 9.610 Yield MT/HA 3.601 3.013 3.455 CHINA Production MIL. MT 102.215 109.000 114.000 Area MIL. HA 28.860 29.500 30.000 Yield MT/HA 3.542 3.695 3.800 INDIA Production MIL. MT 65.470 62.620 64.500 Area MIL. HA 25.600 25.100 25.400 Yield MT/HA 2.557 2.495 2.539 PAKISTAN Production MIL. MT 17.002 16.907 16.000 Area MIL. HA 8.170 8.376 8.100 Yield MT/HA 2.081 2.019 1.975 TURKEY Production MIL. MT 15.500 16.000 16.000 Area MIL. HA 8.550 8.450 8.500 Yield MT/HA 1.813 1.893 1.882 MEXICO Production MIL. MT 3.460 3.200 3.400 Area MIL. HA 0.870 0.800 0.850 Yield MT/HA 3.977 4.000 4.000 OTHER W. EUROPE Production MIL. MT 0.946 0.921 0.925 Area MIL. HA 0.166 0.163 0.160 Yield MT/HA 5.699 5.650 5.781 ================================================================== May 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD CORN : World Production Estimates 1995/96 - 1996/97 and Forecast 1997/98 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1997/98 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1995/96 | 1996/97 | May 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. MT 515.833 588.794 598.495 Area MIL. HA 134.369 140.971 141.701 Yield MT/HA 3.839 4.177 4.224 UNITED STATES Production MIL. MT 187.305 236.064 249.948 Area MIL. HA 26.303 29.602 30.401 Yield MT/HA 7.121 7.975 8.222 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. MT 328.528 352.730 348.547 Area MIL. HA 108.066 111.369 111.300 Yield MT/HA 3.040 3.167 3.132 ARGENTINA Production MIL. MT 11.100 14.500 13.000 Area MIL. HA 2.700 3.300 3.000 Yield MT/HA 4.111 4.394 4.333 SOUTH AFRICA Production MIL. MT 10.200 8.300 8.500 Area MIL. HA 3.300 3.360 3.200 Yield MT/HA 3.091 2.470 2.656 THAILAND Production MIL. MT 3.700 4.000 4.000 Area MIL. HA 1.140 1.200 1.150 Yield MT/HA 3.246 3.333 3.478 EASTERN EUROPE Production MIL. MT 25.371 25.705 24.800 Area MIL. HA 6.949 7.033 6.825 Yield MT/HA 3.651 3.655 3.634 EU-15 Production MIL. MT 29.113 34.586 34.725 Area MIL. HA 3.730 4.080 4.160 Yield MT/HA 7.805 8.477 8.347 FSU-12 Production MIL. MT 7.010 4.535 7.335 Area MIL. HA 2.465 2.097 2.753 Yield MT/HA 2.844 2.163 2.664 MEXICO Production MIL. MT 17.780 19.000 19.500 Area MIL. HA 7.800 8.200 8.500 Yield MT/HA 2.279 2.317 2.294 CHINA Production MIL. MT 112.000 127.000 122.000 Area MIL. HA 22.767 24.300 23.500 Yield MT/HA 4.919 5.226 5.191 BRAZIL Production MIL. MT 32.480 37.000 35.000 Area MIL. HA 13.767 14.200 14.000 Yield MT/HA 2.359 2.606 2.500 PHILIPPINES Production MIL. MT 4.324 4.250 4.200 Area MIL. HA 2.760 2.730 2.700 Yield MT/HA 1.567 1.557 1.556 INDONESIA Production MIL. MT 6.000 6.600 6.800 Area MIL. HA 3.531 3.550 3.580 Yield MT/HA 1.699 1.859 1.899 CANADA Production MIL. MT 7.271 7.200 8.000 Area MIL. HA 1.003 1.040 1.125 Yield MT/HA 7.249 6.923 7.111 ================================================================== May 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates 1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Apr. 11 May 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. MT 137.630 124.548 133.690 132.520 Area MIL. HA 62.207 61.294 63.000 63.200 Yield MT/HA 2.212 2.032 2.122 2.097 UNITED STATES Production MIL. MT 68.493 59.243 64.837 64.837 Area MIL. HA 24.629 24.938 25.661 25.661 Yield MT/HA 2.781 2.376 2.527 2.527 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. MT 69.137 65.305 68.853 67.683 Area MIL. HA 37.578 36.356 37.339 37.539 Yield MT/HA 1.840 1.796 1.844 1.803 ARGENTINA Production MIL. MT 12.500 12.430 13.250 12.400 Area MIL. HA 5.700 5.980 6.200 6.200 Yield MT/HA 2.193 2.079 2.137 2.000 BRAZIL Production MIL. MT 25.900 23.700 27.000 26.500 Area MIL. HA 11.680 10.950 11.800 11.800 Yield MT/HA 2.217 2.164 2.288 2.246 PARAGUAY Production MIL. MT 2.200 2.400 2.700 2.600 Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.100 1.200 1.200 Yield MT/HA 2.000 2.182 2.250 2.167 CHINA Production MIL. MT 16.000 13.500 13.000 13.500 Area MIL. HA 9.222 8.127 7.500 7.800 Yield MT/HA 1.735 1.661 1.733 1.731 INDONESIA Production MIL. MT 1.680 1.560 1.550 1.500 Area MIL. HA 1.477 1.346 1.400 1.300 Yield MT/HA 1.137 1.159 1.107 1.154 EASTERN EUROPE Production MIL. MT 0.256 0.304 0.358 0.363 Area MIL. HA 0.164 0.179 0.216 0.216 Yield MT/HA 1.561 1.698 1.657 1.681 EU-15 Production MIL. MT 1.029 0.939 1.075 1.075 Area MIL. HA 0.352 0.291 0.317 0.317 Yield MT/HA 2.923 3.227 3.391 3.391 CANADA Production MIL. MT 2.251 2.293 2.170 2.170 Area MIL. HA 0.820 0.824 0.860 0.860 Yield MT/HA 2.745 2.783 2.523 2.523 ================================================================== May 12, 1997 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD COTTON : World Production Estimates 1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Apr. 11 May 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. BALES 85.520 92.174 88.122 87.945 Area MIL. HA 32.149 35.878 33.775 33.694 Yield KG/HA 579 559 568 568 UNITED STATES Production MIL. BALES 19.662 17.900 18.951 18.942 Area MIL. HA 5.391 6.478 5.193 5.208 Yield KG/HA 794 602 795 792 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. BALES 65.858 74.274 69.171 69.003 Area MIL. HA 26.758 29.400 28.582 28.486 Yield KG/HA 536 550 527 527 AUSTRALIA Production MIL. BALES 1.539 1.929 2.500 2.600 Area MIL. HA 0.222 0.304 0.390 0.390 Yield KG/HA 1,509 1,382 1,396 1,452 CENTRAL AMERICA Production MIL. BALES 0.052 0.065 0.047 0.029 Area MIL. HA 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.011 Yield KG/HA 666 745 787 574 EGYPT Production MIL. BALES 1.170 1.088 1.600 1.600 Area MIL. HA 0.305 0.306 0.387 0.387 Yield KG/HA 835 774 900 900 MEXICO Production MIL. BALES 0.458 0.860 1.150 1.150 Area MIL. HA 0.146 0.242 0.300 0.300 Yield KG/HA 683 774 835 835 PAKISTAN Production MIL. BALES 6.250 8.200 7.100 7.100 Area MIL. HA 2.650 3.048 3.200 3.200 Yield KG/HA 514 586 483 483 SUDAN Production MIL. BALES 0.400 0.490 0.450 0.450 Area MIL. HA 0.174 0.220 0.230 0.230 Yield KG/HA 501 485 426 426 TURKEY Production MIL. BALES 2.886 3.911 3.650 3.650 Area MIL. HA 0.582 0.757 0.750 0.750 Yield KG/HA 1,080 1,125 1,060 1,060 FSU-12 Production MIL. BALES 8.778 8.260 6.500 6.500 Area MIL. HA 2.707 2.573 2.545 2.545 Yield KG/HA 706 699 556 556 ARGENTINA Production MIL. BALES 1.608 1.930 1.900 1.700 Area MIL. HA 0.700 0.960 0.900 0.900 Yield KG/HA 500 438 460 411 BRAZIL Production MIL. BALES 2.526 1.791 1.400 1.400 Area MIL. HA 1.220 1.130 0.750 0.750 Yield KG/HA 451 345 406 406 CHINA Production MIL. BALES 19.900 21.900 19.300 19.300 Area MIL. HA 5.530 5.422 4.800 4.800 Yield KG/HA 784 879 875 875 INDIA Production MIL. BALES 10.814 12.649 12.500 12.500 Area MIL. HA 7.861 9.063 8.865 8.865 Yield KG/HA 300 304 307 307 ================================================================== May 12, 1997 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates 1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97 Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers ------------------------------------------------------------------ | | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Apr. 11 May 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ WORLD Production MIL. MT 364.897 371.450 376.913 377.378 Area MIL. HA 147.996 148.464 148.789 148.647 Yield MT/HA 2.466 2.502 2.533 2.539 UNITED STATES Production MIL. MT 6.648 5.631 5.595 5.595 Area MIL. HA 1.342 1.252 1.133 1.133 Yield MT/HA 4.954 4.498 4.938 4.938 TOTAL FOREIGN Production MIL. MT 358.249 365.819 371.318 371.783 Area MIL. HA 146.654 147.212 147.656 147.514 Yield MT/HA 2.443 2.485 2.515 2.520 PAKISTAN Production MIL. MT 3.447 3.936 4.260 4.260 Area MIL. HA 2.107 2.162 2.230 2.230 Yield MT/HA 1.636 1.821 1.910 1.910 BURMA Production MIL. MT 9.280 9.860 9.300 9.300 Area MIL. HA 5.517 5.666 5.700 5.600 Yield MT/HA 1.682 1.740 1.632 1.661 THAILAND Production MIL. MT 14.124 14.388 13.900 13.900 Area MIL. HA 9.196 9.032 9.200 9.200 Yield MT/HA 1.536 1.593 1.511 1.511 CHINA Production MIL. MT 123.151 129.650 133.700 133.700 Area MIL. HA 30.171 30.745 30.700 30.700 Yield MT/HA 4.082 4.217 4.355 4.355 INDONESIA Production MIL. MT 32.333 32.800 33.500 33.500 Area MIL. HA 11.439 11.390 11.600 11.600 Yield MT/HA 2.827 2.880 2.888 2.888 REP. OF KOREA Production MIL. MT 5.060 4.694 5.320 5.320 Area MIL. HA 1.102 1.056 1.050 1.050 Yield MT/HA 4.592 4.445 5.067 5.067 JAPAN Production MIL. MT 10.903 9.781 9.413 9.413 Area MIL. HA 2.212 2.118 1.977 1.977 Yield MT/HA 4.929 4.618 4.761 4.761 BRAZIL Production MIL. MT 7.402 6.834 6.200 6.200 Area MIL. HA 4.242 3.880 3.700 3.700 Yield MT/HA 1.745 1.761 1.676 1.676 AUSTRALIA Production MIL. MT 0.813 0.680 1.050 1.050 Area MIL. HA 0.128 0.149 0.165 0.165 Yield MT/HA 6.352 4.564 6.364 6.364 PHILIPPINES Production MIL. MT 6.809 7.263 7.500 7.500 Area MIL. HA 3.668 3.924 4.000 4.000 Yield MT/HA 1.856 1.851 1.875 1.875 INDIA Production MIL. MT 81.160 79.460 80.000 80.500 Area MIL. HA 42.500 42.300 42.700 42.700 Yield MT/HA 1.910 1.878 1.874 1.885 BANGLADESH Production MIL. MT 16.833 17.687 18.500 18.500 Area MIL. HA 9.922 9.941 10.000 10.000 Yield MT/HA 1.697 1.779 1.850 1.850 ================================================================== May 12, 1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD WORLD CENTRIFUGAL SUGAR PRODUCTION The preliminary 1997/98 forecast for world centrifugal sugar production is a record 122.4 million tons (raw value), virtually unchanged from the revised 1996/97 estimate of 122.3 million. Sugar produced from sugarcane is forecast at 86.0 million tons, up 1 percent from last year. Sugar processed from sugarbeets is forecast at 36.4 million tons, down 3 percent from last season and 11 percent less than the record 41.1 million produced in 1990/91. European Union (EU-15): The European Union's 1997/98 sugar production forecast of 17.4 million tons is down 4 percent from last season. All major sugar-producing member states are projecting lower sugar output in 1997/98 except Italy, where production is forecast to remain stable at 1.6 million tons. The European Union accounts for 48 percent of the world's production of beet sugar. Brazil: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at an all-time high of 14.8 million tons, up marginally from last season because of record cane production and favorable weather. Brazil remains the world's single largest producer of centrifugal sugar. India: Sugar production for 1997/98 is projected at 13.6 million tons, down 7 percent from last season due to a 6-percent reduction in the volume of cane cut specifically for centrifugal sugar and slightly lower yields. Sugarcane and sugar production are projected to continue trending downward as ongoing delays in producer payments causes growers to increasingly shift away from cane production and use fewer inputs. These developments, coupled with expanding production of alternative sweeteners, has resulted in a 25-percent reduction in centrifugal sugar production since the record outturn of 18.2 million tons in 1995/96. China: Sugar production in China for 1997/98 is forecast at 7.2 million tons, up 1 percent from last season based on projections of increased production of both beet and cane sugar. Approximately 80 percent of China's sugar production comes from sugarcane. Sugarcane area is forecast to increase slightly in 1997/98 due to continued expansion in Guangxi and Yunnan Provinces. Thailand: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 6.4 million tons, up 2 percent from 1996/97. The increase reflects continuing expansion of the area planted to cane in the northeast part of the country where farmers are increasingly switching from cassava to sugarcane. Australia: The sugar production forecast for 1997/98 indicates a record outturn of 5.6 million tons, up 3 percent from last season due to an increase in land assignments. Harvested area in 1997/98 is expected to exceed the 1996/97 area by 10,000 hectares for a total of 412,000. Mexico: Sugar production for 1997/98 is forecast at an all-time high of 4.8 million tons, 2 percent greater than the previous record of 4.7 million set in 1996/97. Although cane area is essentially unchanged from last year, cane yields are expected to be higher due to exceptionally favorable weather. The current projection pegs the average yield at 73.7 tons per hectare for the 1997/98 crop, up from 69.9 tons per hectare in 1996/97. The 1996/97 estimate for world sugar production has been revised to 122.3 million tons, down 1.7 million from the March 1997 estimate of 124.0 million. The reduction is mainly due to decreases in the following countries: India, down 914,000 tons to 14.7 million; Indonesia, down 355,000 tons to 2.1 million; Pakistan, down 230,000 tons, to 2.4 million; and Cuba, down 200,000 tons to 4.4 million. WORLD CENTRIFUGAL SUGAR PRODUCTION (1,000 Metric tons) 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 Western Hemisphere Argentina 1,180 1,590 1,380 1,640 Brazil 12,500 13,700 14,650 14,800 Colombia 2,071 2,002 2,044 2,045 Cuba 3,300 4,450 4,400 4,500 Guatemala 1,333 1,334 1,442 1,520 Mexico 4,556 4,660 4,670 4,770 United State 7,194 6,686 6,532 6,804 European Union 16,533 16,971 18,013 17,350 France 4,363 4,564 4,594 4,534 Germany 3,991 4,159 4,558 4,331 Italy 1,622 1,621 1,561 1,565 Netherlands 1,050 1,074 1,125 1,087 Spain 1,214 1,193 1,332 1,205 United Kingd 1,373 1,322 1,608 1,441 Eastern Europe Poland 1,492 1,714 2,497 1,900 FSU Russia 1,655 2,060 1,750 1,800 Ukraine 3,600 3,800 2,900 2,850 Africa Egypt 1,088 1,092 1,184 1,225 South Africa 1,770 1,769 2,408 2,500 Middle East Turkey 1,678 1,375 2,025 2,200 Asia China 5,900 6,686 7,085 7,175 India 3/ 16,410 18,225 14,686 13,650 Indonesia 2,450 2,090 2,095 2,150 Pakistan 3,212 2,643 2,370 2,960 Philippines 1,647 1,787 1,800 1,800 Thailand 5,448 6,223 6,255 6,360 Oceania Australia 5,196 5,049 5,491 5,650 Others 15,552 16,429 16,603 16,707 WORLD 115,765 122,335 122,280 122,356 1/ Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Total EU sugar production excludes French overseas departments. 3/ Includes khandsari sugar in thousands of tons (raw value equivalent) as follows: 1994/95 - 740; 1995/96 - 620; 1996/97 - 770; 1997/98 - 800. May 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS,USDA
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