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March 12, 1997
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-324) March 11, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on April 14, 1997.
WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
March 11, 1997
UNITED STATES: Above average February rainfall extended from the Southwest across the Great Plains winter wheat areas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and much of the Southeast. The moisture was beneficial for winter wheat. Inundating rainfall and snowmelt from unusually mild weather flooded the Ohio, Tennessee and middle Mississippi River basins. Wetness continued into early March, but recent drier weather allowed rivers to slowly recede. Ample moisture is delaying early crop planting in the South, except in Florida. A deep snowpack persists in the upper Midwest while a series of early-March storms hit the Northwest.
SOUTH AMERICA: A February drying trend continued into early March, stressing second-crop soybeans in portions of central Argentina. Timely rain is needed to maintain favorable soybean yield prospects. In southern Brazil, near to above normal February rainfall favored reproductive to filling soybeans.
EUROPE: Above-normal precipitation and unusually mild weather in February in England, northern France, and Germany prompt early greening of winter grains and favor early spring fieldwork. Recent mild weather in eastern Europe prompts early greening of winter grains. In Spain, dry weather since early February lowers soil moisture needed for winter grain development and spring crop planting.
FSU-WESTERN: Overwintering conditions continued mostly favorable for winter grains in Russia and most of Ukraine. Mild weather since February 21 diminishes snow cover in the west and south about 4 weeks earlier than usual, allowing early season fieldwork.
NORTHWEST AFRICA: Drought in Algeria and Tunisia reduces yield prospects for winter grains. In Morocco, although abundant moisture during the fall and early winter favored winter grain germination and early plant development, dry weather since late January has depleted soil moisture reserves and increased stress on crops entering the heading stage.
SOUTH AFRICA: Dry, locally hot weather stressed immature corn during the first half of February. Crops generally ranged from reproductive to filling. Although most corn experienced some stress, the earliest planted crops had already progressed through the most critical stages of development. In March, unseasonably heavy rain stabilized immature crops and increased soil moisture for winter wheat, typically planted in May.
EASTERN ASIA: Unseasonably warm late-February and early-March weather caused winter wheat to break dormancy. Above normal February and early-March rainfall favored greening wheat. Early double-crop rice transplanting began in early March.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Near to slightly below normal February rainfall aided filling main-season rice in Java. Above normal showers caused some local flooding in peninsular Malaysia. Near to above normal February rainfall slowed second-season crop harvesting in the eastern Philippines.
AUSTRALIA: Untimely, locally heavy rain has plagued eastern Australia's main summer crop zones, keeping maturing cotton and sorghum unfavorably wet. However, the moisture has been beneficial for pastures and for increasing long term moisture reserves in major winter grain areas.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
UNITED STATES: Severe winter conditions stressed livestock in the northern Plains. Record snow depths were reported in the Dakotas and Minnesota, while Arctic air and blustery winds produced dangerously low wind chills. A blast of Arctic air also penetrated into Florida on January 18-20, causing damage to citrus in central Florida and winter vegetables in the south. Some beneficial precipitation fell recently in the southern Great Plains, boosting topsoil moisture for dormant winter grains.
SOUTH AMERICA: Early February showers alleviated January dryness across Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Near- to above-normal rainfall favored soybeans elsewhere in southern Brazil. In central Argentina, abundant January rainfall favored soybeans and corn in Buenos Aires. However, rain is needed to reverse a recent drying trend in southern Santa Fe.
EUROPE: Overwintering conditions were mostly favorable for winter grains. Although well-below-normal precipitation in northern and eastern Europe had little impact on dormant winter grains, the dryness limited moisture recharge. Continued wet weather in Spain boosted reservoir and soil moisture levels, and benefited pastures and winter wheat. However, locally heavy rain in southern Spain reportedly caused some flooding and crop damage
FSU-WESTERN: Overwintering conditions were mostly favorable for winter grains in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltics. Although a period of bitter cold in early February threatened winter grains in Ukraine and Russia, a variable snow cover protected crops from widespread damage.
NORTHWEST AFRICA: Rain in Morocco benefited winter grains in the vegetative stage. Although recent rain in Algeria and Tunisia eased long-term moisture deficits, additional rain will be needed in upcoming weeks to prevent significant declines in crop yield potential.
SOUTH AFRICA: Dry pockets have developed in the corn belt over the past few weeks, notably in the east and the far west. Unfavorable warmth, especially in the west, enhanced evaporative losses and caused some crop stress. Recent rain in western and northern corn areas stabilized conditions, but crops are advancing through reproduction and need additional moisture to sustain the expected yield potential.
EASTERN ASIA: Seasonably cool weather kept winter wheat dormant across the North China Plain. Above normal January rainfall favored winter grains and oilseeds and boosted irrigation supplies for summer crops.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In Java, irrigation supplies remained favorable for main-season rice. Much-below-normal January rainfall reduced moisture for plantation crops across peninsular Malaysia. Rains returned to the region in early February. Rainfall was near normal across the Philippines.
AUSTRALIA: In late January and early February, periods of very heavy rain (100-200 mm) in the main sorghum and cotton areas greatly increased moisture reserves but caused some flooding. Drier and warmer weather was needed for a return to normal growing conditions. In the southeast, widespread, locally heavy rain brought some relief from an early February heat wave, especially in pasture and grazing areas.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1996/97
March 1997
WHEAT
---------1996/97--------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Estimate Change Change 1995/96
MMT MMT (Percent) (Percent)
World 581.5 +0.4 +0 +8
Production is estimated higher this month due to an increase
in the total foreign category.
United States 62.1 NC NC +5
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign
519.4 +0.4 +0 +9
Production is estimated higher this month as increases in
Australia, Chile, and Uruguay more than offset a slight decrease
in the European Union.
Australia 23.5 +0.4 +2 +38
Production is estimated at a record level based on an
ABARE report that increased yield.
Chile 1.5 +0.1 +10 +39
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in
area and record yield.
Uruguay 0.6 +0.1 +26 +50
Production is estimated higher due to record yield.
European Union99.3 -0.2 -0 +15
Production is estimated lower as a decline in Italy's
output more than offset slight increases in France,
Germany, and Netherlands.
COARSE GRAINS
World 887.7 -0.6 -0 +11
Production is estimated lower due to a decline in the
total foreign category.
United States
267.6 NC NC +28
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign
620.2 -0.6 -0 +5
Production is estimated lower mainly due to decreases in
India and South Africa which more than offset increases in
the European Union, Argentina, and Australia.
India 32.3 -1.4 -4 +9
Production is estimated lower for corn, sorghum, and millet
due to decreases in area.
South Africa 9.1 -1.0 -10 -17
Production is forecast lower as periods of hot, dry weather
in parts of the Maize Triangle reduced yield potential.
Yugoslavia 9.0 -0.2 -2 -2
Production is estimated lower due to reduced yield in Serbia.
European Union
104.0 +1.2 +1 +18
Production is estimated higher mainly due to increases in
corn output for Italy, Germany, and France.
Argentina 17.9 +0.4 +2 +27
Production is forecast higher as plantings of sorghum for
grain were higher than expected.
Australia 9.1 +0.2 +2 -3
Production is forecast higher due to an ABARE report
increasing sorghum, barley, and oat output.
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
World 374.9 -2.4 -1 +1
Production is estimated lower due to a decline in the total
foreign category.
United States
5.6 NC NC -1
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign
369.3 -2.4 -1 +1
Production is estimated lower mainly due to decreases in
Burma, India, and Thailand.
Burma 9.3 -1.1 -11 -7
Production is estimated lower based on field travel and
official sources indicating that the wet-season rice had reduced
yield due to input, weather, and pest problems.
India 80.0 -1.0 -1 +1
Production is estimated lower as harvest results indicate
reduced yield.
Thailand 13.9 -0.5 -3 -3
Production is estimated lower based on field travel from
the U.S. agricultural counselor's office in Bangkok and reports
that dryness in the Northeast, excessive rainfall during flowering,
and flooding in the Central Plains reduced yield for the
main-season crop.
Philippines 7.5 +0.2 +3 +3
Production is estimated at a record due to an increase in
area and improved yield performance.
OILSEEDS
World 259.1 +1.8 +1 +1
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total foreign
category.
United States 74.9 NC NC +8
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign
184.2 +1.8 +1 -2
Production is estimated higher due to increases for China,
Brazil, India, and Paraguay which more than offset a decline for
South Africa.
China 39.7 +0.7 +2 -8
Production is estimated higher based on increased estimates
for rapeseed area and yield as well as an increase in soybean
yield. The estimate for sunflowerseed output was lowered due
to a reduction in yield.
Brazil 27.7 +0.5 +2 +13
Production is estimated higher based on improved soybean
yields in the CenterWest despite indications of less area in
the Center South.
India 25.1 +0.4 +2 +1
Production is estimated higher due to increased area and
yield for rapeseed and an upward revision of cottonseed area.
Paraguay 2.9 +0.2 +7 +8
Production is estimated higher due to favorable weather which
increased soybean yield.
South Africa 0.8 -0.2 -16 -31
Production is estimated lower based on a National Crop Estimating
Committee report indicating lower sunflower and peanut area which
more than offset increased soybean area.
PALM OIL
World 16.6 +0.0 +0 +6
Production is changed only fractionally this month due to
a slight increase for Guatemala which more than offset a
lower estimate for Colombia.
COTTON
---------1996/97--------- Change
Current Monthly Monthly From
Country Estimate Change Change 1995/96
MBALES MBALES (Percent) (Percent)
World Total 86.3 +0.1 +0 -6
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the total
foreign category.
United States 19.0 NC NC +6
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 67.4 +0.1 +0 -9
Production is forecast slightly higher due to increases in India
and Pakistan which more than offset reductions in Greece
and Australia.
India 12.5 +0.2 +2 -1
Production is forecast higher due to upward revisions in
area and yield.
Pakistan 7.0 +0.2 +3 -15
Production is forecast higher due to improved yield. Insect
infestations last fall had a less-than-expected effect on yield.
Greece 1.4 -0.1 -8 -32
Production is forecast lower based upon data from the Hellenic
Cotton Board.
Australia 2.5 -0.1 -4 +30
Production is forecast lower due to cool temperatures and rainy
conditions during early February throughout the main cotton
producing areas.
WHEAT : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Feb. 12 Mar. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 524.580 536.924 581.039 581.459
Area MIL. HA 215.191 219.550 229.972 229.753
Yield MT/HA 2.438 2.446 2.527 2.531
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 63.167 59.400 62.099 62.099
Area MIL. HA 24.998 24.664 25.435 25.435
Yield MT/HA 2.527 2.408 2.441 2.441
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 461.413 477.524 518.940 519.360
Area MIL. HA 190.193 194.886 204.537 204.318
Yield MT/HA 2.426 2.450 2.537 2.542
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.300 9.200 15.500 15.500
Area MIL. HA 5.100 4.781 6.700 6.700
Yield MT/HA 2.216 1.924 2.313 2.313
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 8.903 16.975 23.100 23.500
Area MIL. HA 8.003 9.721 11.100 11.000
Yield MT/HA 1.112 1.746 2.081 2.136
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 23.122 25.037 30.500 30.500
Area MIL. HA 10.838 11.141 12.650 12.650
Yield MT/HA 2.133 2.247 2.411 2.411
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 84.541 86.168 99.460 99.305
Area MIL. HA 15.786 16.153 17.030 16.905
Yield MT/HA 5.355 5.334 5.840 5.874
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 59.904 58.923 62.950 62.950
Area MIL. HA 42.218 45.310 47.310 47.310
Yield MT/HA 1.419 1.300 1.331 1.331
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 33.962 34.990 26.470 26.470
Area MIL. HA 10.072 9.710 8.730 8.730
Yield MT/HA 3.372 3.604 3.032 3.032
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 99.300 102.215 109.000 109.000
Area MIL. HA 28.981 28.860 29.500 29.500
Yield MT/HA 3.426 3.542 3.695 3.695
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 59.840 65.470 62.620 62.620
Area MIL. HA 25.100 25.600 25.100 25.100
Yield MT/HA 2.384 2.557 2.495 2.495
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 15.212 17.002 16.907 16.907
Area MIL. HA 8.034 8.170 8.376 8.376
Yield MT/HA 1.893 2.081 2.019 2.019
TURKEY
Production MIL. MT 14.700 15.500 16.500 16.500
Area MIL. HA 8.600 8.550 8.450 8.450
Yield MT/HA 1.709 1.813 1.953 1.953
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 4.151 3.460 3.200 3.200
Area MIL. HA 0.965 0.870 0.800 0.800
Yield MT/HA 4.302 3.977 4.000 4.000
OTHER W. EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.805 0.946 0.921 0.921
Area MIL. HA 0.171 0.166 0.163 0.163
Yield MT/HA 4.708 5.699 5.650 5.650
==================================================================
Mar. 11,1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
CORN : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Feb. 12 Mar. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 561.085 515.446 576.043 575.630
Area MIL. HA 134.917 134.135 139.569 139.586
Yield MT/HA 4.159 3.843 4.127 4.124
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 256.621 187.305 236.064 236.064
Area MIL. HA 29.496 26.303 29.602 29.602
Yield MT/HA 8.700 7.121 7.975 7.975
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 304.464 328.141 339.979 339.566
Area MIL. HA 105.421 107.832 109.967 109.984
Yield MT/HA 2.888 3.043 3.092 3.087
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.360 11.100 14.500 14.500
Area MIL. HA 2.550 2.700 3.300 3.300
Yield MT/HA 4.455 4.111 4.394 4.394
SOUTH AFRICA
Production MIL. MT 4.845 10.200 9.500 8.500
Area MIL. HA 2.952 3.300 3.400 3.400
Yield MT/HA 1.641 3.091 2.794 2.500
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 3.800 3.700 4.000 4.000
Area MIL. HA 1.200 1.140 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 3.167 3.246 3.333 3.333
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 22.716 25.371 25.570 25.355
Area MIL. HA 7.068 6.949 7.085 7.080
Yield MT/HA 3.214 3.651 3.609 3.581
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 28.298 28.960 33.830 34.782
Area MIL. HA 3.717 3.691 4.051 4.105
Yield MT/HA 7.613 7.846 8.351 8.473
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 4.032 6.990 4.505 4.505
Area MIL. HA 1.880 2.465 2.097 2.097
Yield MT/HA 2.145 2.836 2.148 2.148
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 17.005 17.780 19.000 19.000
Area MIL. HA 8.022 7.800 8.200 8.200
Yield MT/HA 2.120 2.279 2.317 2.317
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 99.280 112.000 117.000 117.000
Area MIL. HA 21.152 22.767 23.500 23.500
Yield MT/HA 4.694 4.919 4.979 4.979
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 37.440 32.480 34.000 34.000
Area MIL. HA 14.189 13.767 14.000 14.000
Yield MT/HA 2.639 2.359 2.429 2.429
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 4.534 4.324 4.300 4.300
Area MIL. HA 2.967 2.760 2.700 2.700
Yield MT/HA 1.528 1.567 1.593 1.593
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 6.100 6.000 6.600 6.600
Area MIL. HA 3.652 3.531 3.550 3.550
Yield MT/HA 1.670 1.699 1.859 1.859
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 7.043 7.271 7.200 7.200
Area MIL. HA 0.955 1.003 1.040 1.040
Yield MT/HA 7.375 7.249 6.923 6.923
==================================================================
Mar. 11,1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Feb. 12 Mar. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 137.780 124.753 132.811 133.984
Area MIL. HA 62.207 61.334 63.237 63.038
Yield MT/HA 2.215 2.034 2.100 2.125
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 68.493 59.243 64.837 64.837
Area MIL. HA 24.629 24.938 25.661 25.661
Yield MT/HA 2.781 2.376 2.527 2.527
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 69.287 65.510 67.974 69.147
Area MIL. HA 37.578 36.396 37.576 37.377
Yield MT/HA 1.844 1.800 1.809 1.850
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 12.650 12.640 13.500 13.500
Area MIL. HA 5.700 5.980 6.200 6.200
Yield MT/HA 2.219 2.114 2.177 2.177
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 25.900 23.700 26.500 27.000
Area MIL. HA 11.680 10.950 12.000 11.800
Yield MT/HA 2.217 2.164 2.208 2.288
PARAGUAY
Production MIL. MT 2.200 2.400 2.500 2.700
Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.100 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 2.000 2.182 2.083 2.250
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 16.000 13.500 12.500 13.000
Area MIL. HA 9.222 8.127 7.500 7.500
Yield MT/HA 1.735 1.661 1.667 1.733
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 1.680 1.560 1.550 1.550
Area MIL. HA 1.477 1.390 1.400 1.400
Yield MT/HA 1.137 1.122 1.107 1.107
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.256 0.303 0.352 0.345
Area MIL. HA 0.164 0.178 0.214 0.213
Yield MT/HA 1.561 1.702 1.645 1.620
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 1.029 0.939 1.070 1.070
Area MIL. HA 0.352 0.291 0.314 0.314
Yield MT/HA 2.923 3.227 3.408 3.408
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 2.251 2.293 2.170 2.170
Area MIL. HA 0.820 0.824 0.860 0.860
Yield MT/HA 2.745 2.783 2.523 2.523
==================================================================
Mar. 11,1997 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD
COTTON : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Feb. 12 Mar. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. BALES 85.520 92.174 86.212 86.337
Area MIL. HA 32.149 35.878 33.440 33.805
Yield KG/HA 579 559 561 556
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. BALES 19.662 17.900 18.951 18.951
Area MIL. HA 5.391 6.478 5.193 5.193
Yield KG/HA 794 602 795 795
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. BALES 65.858 74.274 67.261 67.386
Area MIL. HA 26.758 29.400 28.247 28.612
Yield KG/HA 536 550 518 513
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. BALES 1.539 1.929 2.600 2.500
Area MIL. HA 0.222 0.304 0.390 0.390
Yield KG/HA 1,509 1,382 1,452 1,396
CENTRAL AMERICA
Production MIL. BALES 0.052 0.065 0.047 0.047
Area MIL. HA 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.013
Yield KG/HA 666 745 787 787
EGYPT
Production MIL. BALES 1.170 1.088 1.600 1.600
Area MIL. HA 0.305 0.306 0.387 0.387
Yield KG/HA 835 774 900 900
MEXICO
Production MIL. BALES 0.458 0.860 1.100 1.150
Area MIL. HA 0.146 0.242 0.300 0.300
Yield KG/HA 683 774 798 835
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. BALES 6.250 8.200 6.800 7.000
Area MIL. HA 2.650 3.048 3.200 3.200
Yield KG/HA 514 586 463 476
SUDAN
Production MIL. BALES 0.400 0.490 0.450 0.450
Area MIL. HA 0.174 0.220 0.230 0.230
Yield KG/HA 501 485 426 426
TURKEY
Production MIL. BALES 2.886 3.911 3.650 3.650
Area MIL. HA 0.582 0.757 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 1,080 1,125 1,060 1,060
FSU-12
Production MIL. BALES 8.778 8.260 6.570 6.570
Area MIL. HA 2.707 2.573 2.545 2.545
Yield KG/HA 706 699 562 562
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. BALES 1.608 1.930 1.900 1.900
Area MIL. HA 0.700 0.960 0.900 0.900
Yield KG/HA 500 438 460 460
BRAZIL
Production MIL. BALES 2.526 1.791 1.400 1.400
Area MIL. HA 1.220 1.130 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 451 345 406 406
CHINA
Production MIL. BALES 19.900 21.900 17.500 17.500
Area MIL. HA 5.530 5.422 4.800 4.800
Yield KG/HA 784 879 794 794
INDIA
Production MIL. BALES 10.814 12.649 12.300 12.500
Area MIL. HA 7.861 9.063 8.500 8.865
Yield KG/HA 300 304 315 307
==================================================================
Mar. 11,1997 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD
RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Feb. 12 Mar. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 365.281 370.756 377.259 374.874
Area MIL. HA 148.088 148.580 148.495 148.734
Yield MT/HA 2.467 2.495 2.541 2.520
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 6.648 5.631 5.595 5.595
Area MIL. HA 1.342 1.252 1.133 1.133
Yield MT/HA 4.954 4.498 4.938 4.938
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 358.633 365.125 371.664 369.279
Area MIL. HA 146.746 147.328 147.362 147.601
Yield MT/HA 2.444 2.478 2.522 2.502
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 3.447 3.936 4.260 4.260
Area MIL. HA 2.107 2.162 2.230 2.230
Yield MT/HA 1.636 1.821 1.910 1.910
BURMA
Production MIL. MT 9.280 10.000 10.440 9.300
Area MIL. HA 5.517 5.700 5.700 5.700
Yield MT/HA 1.682 1.754 1.832 1.632
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 14.124 14.400 14.400 13.900
Area MIL. HA 9.196 9.250 9.200 9.200
Yield MT/HA 1.536 1.557 1.565 1.511
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 123.151 129.650 132.000 132.000
Area MIL. HA 30.171 30.700 30.700 30.700
Yield MT/HA 4.082 4.223 4.300 4.300
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 32.333 32.700 33.500 33.500
Area MIL. HA 11.439 11.400 11.600 11.600
Yield MT/HA 2.827 2.868 2.888 2.888
REP. OF KOREA
Production MIL. MT 5.060 4.694 5.320 5.320
Area MIL. HA 1.102 1.056 1.050 1.050
Yield MT/HA 4.592 4.445 5.067 5.067
JAPAN
Production MIL. MT 10.903 9.781 9.413 9.413
Area MIL. HA 2.212 2.118 1.977 1.977
Yield MT/HA 4.929 4.618 4.761 4.761
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 7.402 6.834 6.200 6.200
Area MIL. HA 4.242 3.880 3.700 3.700
Yield MT/HA 1.745 1.761 1.676 1.676
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 0.813 0.680 1.040 1.050
Area MIL. HA 0.128 0.149 0.165 0.165
Yield MT/HA 6.352 4.564 6.303 6.364
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 6.809 7.263 7.300 7.500
Area MIL. HA 3.668 3.924 3.950 4.000
Yield MT/HA 1.856 1.851 1.848 1.875
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 81.160 79.460 81.000 80.000
Area MIL. HA 42.500 42.300 42.500 42.700
Yield MT/HA 1.910 1.878 1.906 1.874
BANGLADESH
Production MIL. MT 16.833 17.687 18.500 18.500
Area MIL. HA 9.922 9.941 10.000 10.000
Yield MT/HA 1.697 1.779 1.850 1.850
==================================================================
Mar. 11,1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
The estimate for 1996/97 world centrifugal sugar production has been revised to 124.0 million tons (raw value). This is 1 percent below the preliminary forecast released in November 1996 (WAP 11-96), but 1 percent higher than the previous record of 122.5 million tons set in 1995/96. Sugar produced from sugarcane is forecast at 86.9 million tons, up marginally from 1995/96. Sugar processed from sugarbeets is estimated at 37.1 million tons, up 4 percent from last season.
The 1996/97 estimate for India, the world's largest sugar producer, is 15.6 million tons, down 8 percent from the November forecast and down 15 percent from last season's record outturn of 18.3 million. Other major-producing countries with downward revisions in production since November include: Thailand and Pakistan, each down 200,000 tons to 6.3 and 2.6 million, respectively; Russia, down 150,000 tons to 1.75 million; and Ukraine and South Africa, each down 100,000 tons to 2.9 and 2.6 million, respectively.
Partially offsetting the sharp decline in India, the European Union's (EU-15) sugar forecast for 1996/97 has been raised 3 percent since November and 4 percent from last season. Sugar output in Brazil has been increased to an all-time high of 14.65 million tons, up 1 percent from November and 7 percent above the previous record last season. Sugar production in the Central-South and North-Northeast regions of Brazil is forecast at 11.2 and 3.5 million tons, respectively. Other major-producing countries with upward revisions in production since the November forecast include: Poland, up 246,000 tons to 2.4 million; United States, up 95,000 tons to 6.6 million; and Mexico up 100,000 tons to 4.7 million.
World Cocoa Bean Production will not be published at this time. The next scheduled release is October 1997.
WORLD CENTRIFUGAL SUGAR PRODUCTION
(1,000 Metric tons)
1994/95 1995/96 As of As of
11/96 3/97
Western Hemisphere
Argentina 1,180 1,590 1,320 1,380
Brazil 12,500 13,700 14,500 14,650
Colombia 2,071 2,002 2,030 2,030
Cuba 3,300 4,450 4,600 4,600
Guatemala 1,333 1,334 1,440 1,440
Mexico 4,556 4,660 4,600 4,700
United State 7,191 6,686 6,468 6,563
European Union 16,533 17,005 17,244 17,724
France 4,363 4,601 4,400 4,560
Germany 3,991 4,150 4,550 4,550
Italy 1,622 1,621 1,460 1,560
Netherlands 1,050 1,085 1,100 1,120
Spain 1,214 1,195 1,200 1,250
United Kingd 1,373 1,330 1,500 1,500
Eastern Europe
Poland 1,492 1,714 2,200 2,446
FSU
Russia 1,655 2,060 1,900 1,750
Ukraine 3,600 3,800 3,000 2,900
Africa
Egypt 1,088 1,109 1,250 1,250
South Africa 1,770 1,769 2,500 2,400
Middle East
Turkey 1,678 1,375 2,000 2,000
Asia
China 5,900 6,750 7,000 7,000
India 3/ 16,410 18,270 17,000 15,600
Indonesia 2,450 2,100 2,450 2,450
Pakistan 3,212 2,643 2,800 2,600
Philippines 1,647 1,787 1,850 1,800
Thailand 5,448 6,300 6,500 6,300
Oceania
Australia 5,196 5,136 5,600 5,600
Others 15,552 16,214 16,737 16,771
WORLD 115,762 122,454 124,989 123,954
1/ Includes Puerto Rico.
2/ Total EU sugar production excludes French overseas departments.
3/ The EC now includes Austria, Finland, and Sweden which became members January 1, 1995.
4/ Includes khandsari sugar in thousands of tons (raw value equivalent)as follows: 1994/95 - 720; 1995/96 - 620; 1996/97 - 620.
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