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January 1997
This reports includes the weather briefs, production briefs, and commodity feature articles from the full World Agricultural Production circular, with the exception of some of the statistical tables and charts. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield, and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data;numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-322) January 10, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880. We plan to issue PART 2 of this circular every month, normally 5 working days AFTER the release of Part 1. The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on Febvruary 13, 1997.
WEATHER BRIEFS
ARGENTINA: MOISTURE ADEQUATE IN ALL GROWING AREAS
During November 1996, near- to slightly above-normal rainfall favored winter wheat and summer crops in central Argentina. During the first week of December, showers in central Argentina favored germinating-to- vegetative corn, soybeans, and sunflowers. Isolated heavier showers caused some flooding and possible wheat lodging in northern La Pampa. The moisture slowed winter wheat maturation and harvesting except in southern Buenos Aires, where wheat was still filling. The following week, December 8 - 14, saw widespread moderate showers fall again across La Pampa and Buenos Aires. The heavier rainfall and cool weather slowed winter wheat maturation and harvesting and possibly caused quality damage in some wheat, especially across the northern portions of this region. The moisture benefited vegetative summer crops throughout the area and late-filling winter wheat in southern Buenos Aires. Moderate to heavy rain fell across northern Argentina, increasing moisture supplies for cotton but causing some local flooding. During December 15 - 21, intermittent showers favored summer crop development in central Argentina, but this moisture caused some delays in winter wheat harvesting. Dry and warm weather favored winter wheat harvesting in central Argentina during the week of December 22 - 28. The warm weather also aided soybean and corn development. Later that week, light to moderate rain slowed wheat harvesting but increased soil moisture for summer crops. Moderate showers also fell that week in northern Argentina, increasing moisture supplies for cotton. During December 29, 1996 through January 4, 1997, warm weather across central Argentina aided winter wheat harvesting and summer crop development. Occasional light to moderate showers fell across Buenos Aires, maintaining soil moisture for vegetative-to- reproductive corn and vegetative soybeans. Periods of dryness between the showers allowed winter wheat harvesting to progress in Buenos Aires. However, southern Santa Fe and Cordoba received little or no rain, where the warm weather increased evapotranspiration rates. During January 5-11, widespread showers eased dryness across these regions. As of the end of December, about 70 percent of the winter wheat crop had been harvested.
EUROPE: BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES PREVAILED DURING DECEMBER
December 1996 was highlighted by wet weather in the south of Europe and abnormally cold weather in the north. During December 1 - 7, moderate rains favored winter grains in southern France, northern Spain, and Italy. Light to moderate showers also replenished soil moisture reserves in Romania, Bulgaria, and eastern Yugoslavia. Winter grains in Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Solvakia, and Hungary were dormant. Unusually cold weather developed across northern Europe, from the United Kingdom to Poland during the week of December 8 - 14. Also during that week, moderate to heavy rain continued across Spain, southern France, and Italy. The heavy rainfall in northern Italy and southeast France caused severe localized flooding. During December 15 - 21, unseasonably cold weather continued in northern Europe. Minimum temperatures ranged from -8 to -12 degrees Celsius. Snow cover provided some protection for winter grains from these extreme temperatures. Spain, southern France, and northern Italy again saw moderate to heavy rainfall. During December 22 - 28, unseasonable cold continued to dominate large portions of eastern and northern Europe. Low temperatures that week reached -15 to -25 degrees C from eastern Germany eastward through Poland southward to Romania. Moderate rain fell that week across southeastern Europe. Bitterly cold weather continued for the fourth week across northern Europe during the week of December 29, 1996, through January 4, 1997. Minimum temperatures ranged from -15 to -20 degrees C in the west, while temperatures in eastern Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland ranged from -20 to -27 degrees. Variable snow cover in eastern Germany and central Poland created the potential for some crop damage, especially to winter oilseeds and barley which are less resistant to extreme cold than winter wheat or rye. That week, near to below-freezing temperatures plunged as far south as northern citrus areas of Italy and Greece; temperatures did not fall low enough to cause significant damage to fruit or trees. Temperatures in citrus areas in Spain remained above freezing.
NORTHWESTERN AFRICA: MOROCCO IS FAVORABLY WET, WHILE ALGERIA AND TUNISIA ARE DRY
December 1996 was highlighted by wet weather in Morocco and unfavorably dry weather in Algeria and Tunisia. During the week of December 1 - 7, soaking rain in Morocco provided highly beneficial moisture for emerging winter grains. Farther east, only light, scattered showers fell in Algeria and Tunisia. Winter grain planting, which is usually well underway by December 1, was progressing slowly this year in Algeria and Tunisia due to unfavorable dryness. Generous rains continued in Morocco during the week of December 8 - 14. Light to moderate rains covered southern Morocco's growing area, while moderate to heavy rain fell in the north. Rains in Algeria and Tunisia that week were limited to widely scattered showers, usually 10 millimeters or less.
During December 15 - 21, wet weather continued to provide abundant-to-excessive moisture for winter grains in Morocco. Heavy rain in the north likely caused some late-season planting delays and created the potential for localized flooding. Portions of Algeria and Tunisia received light rain, but for the most part precipitation accumulations since the beginning of the growing season continued to trend well below normal. Moderate to heavy rain continued in Morocco during the week of December 22 - 28. Northern and western Morocco saw the heaviest rainfall that week. Moderate showers, the highest seen this season, fell across coastal northern Algeria and Tunisia during this week. Crops in western Algeria received light and somewhat scattered rainfall. December ended and January began with this same rainfall trend. Heavy rain in Morocco, during December 29, 1996 through January 4, 1997 kept soils waterlogged, causing further delays in late-season winter grain planting and increasing the potential for some flooding. Light rain fell that week in western Algeria; however, dry weather prevailed over central and eastern Algeria and Tunisia. Rain is needed soon to avert significant declines in crop production.
PRODUCTION BRIEF
FORMER SOVIET UNION: WEATHER AND CROP DEVELOPMENTS
In December, above-normal precipitation fell in the southern and western Ukraine, the North Caucasus Region in Russia, Belarus, and the Baltics, increasing moisture reserves. Precipitation was below normal in northeastern Ukraine and the remainder of Russia. Following a prolonged period of unusually mild weather, temperatures in late-December fell sharply in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and the Baltics. The lowest temperatures occurred during the period December 24, 1996 through January 4, 1997, ranging from -20 to -36 degrees Celsius in most areas. The exceptions were in southern Ukraine and the western North Caucasus region in Russia, where temperatures ranged from -10 to -20 degrees Celsius. In most areas, snow accompanied the bitter cold, providing some protection from the extreme cold. However, snow cover was thin and patchy in a band that stretched across northern Ukraine eastward into Russia (northern tip of North Caucasus and central Volga Valley), leaving winter grains vulnerable to potential freeze damage. Since January 5, light snow accompanied a moderation in temperatures in most areas, improving overwintering conditions for crops; however, temperatures remained below normal.
FEATURE COMMODITY ARTICLES
WORLD RICE CROP OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97
World rice production for 1996/97 is forecast at a record 376.8 million tons (milled-basis), up 6.0 million or 2 percent from 1995/96. Harvested area is estimated at 148.4 million hectares, down marginally from last season. Yield continues to trend higher and for 1996/97 and is estimated at a record 3.76 tons per hectare (paddy basis). Larger production in China and India is the primary reason for the record crop. Refer to Table 10, Rice Area, Yield, and Production for 1996/97 country detail.
United States: Rice production in the United States is estimated at 5.6 million tons, down nearly 1percent from a year ago. Harvested area is down 10 percent from 1995/96, but a record yield of 6.86 tons per hectare buoyed output. The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri) had a banner crop year in 1996/97, according to USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Ideal weather prevailed during the entire growing season. Plantings were completed on time, spring rains were timely, and there was little evidence of insect or disease problems. In California, yields declined from the previous season due to late plantings, disease and rice blanking ; however, more area was harvested. In Texas, rice crops enjoyed good growing conditions and virtually no disease or insect problems.
China: Rice production for 1996/97 is estimated at a record 132.0 million tons, up 2.4 million or 2 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated to be similar to 1995/96 at 30.7 million hectares, and rice yields are estimated at a record 6.14 tons per hectare. China produces three rice crops; early rice is planted in April and harvested in July; single-crop rice is planted in May and harvested in September; and late double-cropped rice is planted in June and harvested in October. Excessive rainfall caused flooding and some damage to the early-rice and single-rice crops in southern and central China, but these losses were mainly along the waterways and were offset by higher yields in other areas. The early-rice crop reached an estimated 30.8 million tons, up 1.26 million or 4 percent from last year. Flooding delayed the planting of late rice in the Yangtze River Basin, but the weather was generally favorable for crop development and estimated yields are slightly higher than last year.
India: Rice production for 1996/97 is estimated at a bumper level of 81.0 million tons, up 1.5 million or 2 percent from 1995/96. Harvested area is estimated slightly higher than last season at 42.5 million hectares as land suitable for irrigation continues to expand. Rice area and yield are dependent on monsoon performance, with only 45 percent of total area being irrigated and about 85 to 90 percent of the crop planted at some point during the monsoon. The monsoon was generally favorable this season; however, excessive rainfall caused by consecutive typhoons hitting the eastern coast in October reduced production potential. In addition, the state of Orissa had some dry periods which caused a reduction in yield potential.
Bangladesh: Rice production for 1996/97 is projected at 18.0 million tons, slightly higher than last year. A favorable monsoon improved yield to a bumper 2.71 tons per hectare. (Only 28 percent of total rice area is irrigated, making rice particularly dependent on monsoon rainfall.) Supplies of fertilizer and other inputs have been adequate this season. Favorably dry December weather has aided the planting of the Boro crop and harvesting of the Aman crop. Yield is reportedly good for the Aman crop which was planted in May/July and harvested on November/December.
Pakistan: Rice production this year is projected a record 4.3 million tons, up 8 percent from 1995/96. The increase is attributed to favorable weather during the growing season, an early start of the monsoon in Punjab, timely water availability, and normal rains in Sindh Province. Minor pest problems were reported in some areas, but these fields received timely applications of pesticides. In addition, this record crop was achieved by a 5-percent increase in yield and a 3-percent rise in area. Nearly all rice is irrigated, drawing on both surface and groundwater resources. The harvest is virtually complete.
Thailand: Rice production for 1996/97 is estimated at 14.4 million tons, virtually unchanged from last season. Harvested area is estimated at 9.2 million hectares, near the 1995/96 level. A dry spell at seeding delayed planting of the main crop, but heavy rains later in the season maintained yield potential near last season's level. Floods in the lower-north and central plains caused minimal crop losses but may have affected crop quality. The second-season irrigated crop, which is currently being planted and accounts for about 18 percent of the total, has sufficient water to produce an above-average harvest.
Burma: Rice output for 1996/97 in Burma is estimated at 10.4 million tons, up 4 percent from 1995/96. A favorable monsoon maintained area at last season's level and boosted the estimated yield to another record. The wet-season crop comprises about 80 percent of total production. The second crop is mostly irrigated and comprises about 20 percent of the total rice area, while 10 percent of the main crop is irrigated. Input shortages, such as fertilizers, continue to constrain yield although the government is still pushing expansion of irrigation resources.
Indonesia: Rice production for 1996/97 is projected at 33.5 million tons, up over 2 percent from 1995/96. The Government is continuing to open new rice area, especially in central Kalimantan. Harvested area is up 200,000 hectares from last year to 11.6 million hectares. Favorable weather, new rice varieties, and improved farming methods have contributed to record yield prospects for 1996/97, estimated at 4.44 tons per hectare. About 55 percent of the total crop is harvested on Java and nearly 25 percent on Sumatra. Planting of the 1996/97 crop began last fall.
Vietnam: Production from Vietnam's three rice crops for 1996/97 is estimated at 17.0 million tons, down 3 percent from in 1995/96. Harvested area is projected to decline to 6.9 million hectares, down 4 percent from 1995/96. Heavy flooding in the Mekong River Delta earlier this season reduced quality and quantity, while lingering floods have delayed planting schedules and may force producers to use short- season varieties for the next two crop seasons. In addition, the Red River provinces of Thai Binh and Thanh Hoa suffered damage from excessive rainfall this fall. Because of the market demand for high quality rice, farmers are expected to plant higher quality, lower yielding varieties this season which could mitigate yield growth seen in recent years.
Japan: Rice production for 1996/97 is estimated at 9.4 million tons, down 0.4 million or 4 percent from last season. Area decreased slightly to 2.0 million hectares as producers responded to the Government's program to reduce area. Japan's growing season was favorable and yield is estimated at 6.56 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last season's level, but 3 percent below the record set in 1994/95.
Brazil: Rice production for 1996/97 is estimated at 6.2 million tons, down 9 percent from last season due to a change in government policies that reduced credit to producers. The Bank of Brazil reportedly is being more selective about extending credit because many farmers have been unable to payoff outstanding loans. Producers in Rio Grande do Sul are affected most since they irrigate rice, which has higher input requirements, thus higher costs. Yield is estimated lower this season at 2.46 tons per hectare due to the reduction in input use, especially in the high-yielding irrigated areas. (Slightly more than half the rice produced and a quarter of the area is affected by the credit problem.) Planting in the Center-South region is nearly complete and the weather has been favorable.
Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, Phone: (202) 720-1572, E-Mail: rocke@fas.usda.gov
PROCESSING TOMATO PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
The revised 1996 production estimate for processing tomatoes in 11 major producing countries is 21.89 million tons, down slightly from the June estimate (WAP 06-96) of 22.07, but up 2 percent from 1995. The downturn from the June estimate reflects significant downward revisions in the United States and Brazil, which were partially offset by increases in Italy and Spain.
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
United States: Processing tomato production in 1996 is estimated at 10.28 million tons, down 6 percent from the June forecast, but up slightly from 1995 due to higher yields. The downturn from the June estimate was precipitated by hot weather in July and August in northern California which induced maturity and reduced crop quality. The estimate for 1996 includes the actual amount of tomatoes processed in California as reported by the California Board of Tomato Processors, plus adjustments for uncontracted production in California and production in other states. The official USDA estimate from the National Agricultural Statistics Service will be available on January 17, 1997.
Mexico: Production of processing tomatoes in 1996 is estimated at 140,000 tons, down 49 percent from 1995 because of diminished water availability due to drought. Additionally, 2,200 hectares of tomatoes planted for processing were harvested for fresh consumption, driven by the attractive tomato export market in the United States.
Early-season assessments of the 1997 crop, to be harvested in the spring, indicate output will rise to 200,000 tons, up 43 percent from 1996, but substantially below the initial November forecast (WAP 11-96) of 245,000 tons. The production upturn in 1997 is based on an increase in the forecast for harvested area--from 3,800 hectares in 1996 to 5,500 hectares in 1997. However, the area harvested for processing will depend upon the demand for fresh tomatoes domestically and in the United States and Canada.
Brazil: Processing tomato production for 1996 is estimated at 680,000 tons, down 27 percent from 1995. The significant decline is due to the combined effects of higher prices for table tomatoes--which led producers to shift supplies of processing tomatoes to fresh market sale--and disease problems in some regions which reduced yields. The preliminary forecast for 1997 is 1.0 million tons, an increase of 47 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast to increase to 21,145 hectares in 1997, up from 15,513 in 1996 because of additional plantings in the states of Goias and Minas Gerais precipitated by increased investment and the close proximity to processing facilities.
Most production of processing tomatoes is done on a contract basis. In the states of Bahia, Pernambuco, and Sao Paulo, the contract price is negotiated by an "agro-industry committee" based on the estimated costs of production made by IEA (Sao Paulo Institute of Agricultural Economics) plus some margin for profit. An agro-industry committee does not exist in the states of Goias and Minas Gerais, so prices are negotiated on a company-by-company basis. Indications are that prices for the 1997 crop will be in the general range of those in 1996--US$61/ton in Bahia and Pernambuco and US$71/ton in Sao Paulo. The average farmgate price paid to producers in Goias and Minas Gerais is estimated to be around US$76/ton in 1997. Under the typical contract, companies provide seeds and other inputs as well as extension and technical assistance to growers.
Chile: Processing tomato production in 1996 is estimated at 1.0 million tons, up 11 percent from 1995 because of a 10-percent increase in harvested area resulting from favorable export prices relative to other crops and the planting of improved, higher-yielding varieties. However, output of processing tomatoes in 1997 is forecast to decline 11 percent because of severe drought which is affecting all tomato-growing areas from Region IV through Region VII. Total planted area is forecast to decline 11 percent in 1997, to 11,700 hectares, from 13,450 in 1996. A lower-quality product is also a possibility since it is undetermined how much water will be available for planting.
MEDITERRANEAN AREA
European Union: The 1996 harvest of processing tomatoes in the major producing countries of the European Union (EU) is estimated at 7.75 million tons, up 16 percent from 1995 because of significantly larger crops in Italy and Spain. The EU's 1996 minimum grower prices for processing tomatoes, in ECU terms, were unchanged from 1995 at 9.549 ECU per 100 kilograms for tomatoes to be processed into paste, juice, or non-whole products; 15.807 ECU per 100 kilograms for whole San Marzano variety tomatoes; and 12.161 for whole Roma variety tomatoes and tomatoes for producing flakes.
In October 1996, the EU reformed the Common Organization of the Market (COM) for Fruits and Vegetables. The new COM favors groups of producers rather than individual producers because all the contracts currently entered into with individual processors will have to be signed by producers' groups beginning in the year 2002. For tomatoes, the new COM modified the production quota for processing tomatoes for 1997 and 1998. The total EU production quota will rise from 6.561 million tons in 1996 to 6.836 million in 1997 and 1998, expanding the quota for tomatoes for paste production and reducing the quota for whole tomatoes for canning. After the 1998/99 year, production quotas will vary and will be recalculated according to historical references of the three previous years. The total EU quota will remain the same, while each EU member state quota will vary according to whether or not they fulfilled their quota during the reference years. Minimum grower prices for 1997 have not been set under the reformed COM.
Italy: Processing tomato production in 1996 is estimated at 4.15 million tons, up 17 percent from the June estimate (WAP 06-96), and up 20 percent from the 1995 volume of 3.45 million. The production upturn since June reflects larger-than-estimated planted and harvested areas and ample rainfall during the growing season. The production quota for Italy was increased to 3.47 million tons beginning in 1997, from the 1996 quota of 3.30 million.
Spain: Production of processing tomatoes for 1996 is estimated at 1.26 million tons, up 28 percent from the June estimate and up 39 percent from 1995. Despite a 10-percent decline in harvested area from last year, favorable weather, including abundant rainfall, contributed to significantly higher yields. The severe drought that affected most parts of Spain during the past 5 years is over. In general, tomatoes were not affected by the drought as much as other less profitable crops because farmers allocated available water resources to tomatoes.
Greece: The 1996 production estimate for processing tomatoes in Greece is 1.15 million tons, down 4 percent from both the June forecast and the 1995 estimate. The current 1996 estimate is lower because of excessive rainfall, which reduced yields.
Portugal: Output of processing tomatoes in 1996 is estimated at an all-time high of 905,000 tons, up 7 percent from the June estimate and up 9 percent from 1995. The previous record of 865,000 tons was set in 1994. Despite early-season concerns about the heavy rains and cold weather that delayed planting of the 1996 crop, yields are considered very good. Crop quality and coloration are also reportedly above average.
The 1996 crop year was marked by ongoing changes at the farm level. The traditional small-scale "seareiros" continue to be displaced by larger farms. An estimated 3,000 hectares of tomato area now consist of large-scale farms with direct-seeding technologies, drip irrigation systems, and mechanical harvesting capabilities. The proportion of large farms is expected to increase in the future because of the need to attain economies of scale.
France: Production of processing tomatoes in 1996 is estimated at 290,000 tons, unchanged from the June forecast, but up 4 percent from 1995. The production quota for 1997 was reduced 6 percent for France, to 369,608 tons. The majority of the reduction came from the quota for whole tomatoes for canning, which France has not traditionally utilized.
Turkey: The revised estimate for Turkey's 1996 processing tomato crop is 1.8 million tons, up 6 percent from the preliminary forecast in June, but down 12 percent from 1995 due to large carry-over stocks. The upturn since June reflects increased plantings by farmers without contracts in expectation of higher returns from tomatoes than from competing crops, including cotton and sugarbeets. A significant portion of these tomatoes were utilized by small processors. Although the tomato crop was planted about two weeks late due to cool, wet spring weather, improved weather later in the season extended harvesting through the end of October.
Kelly Kirby Strzelecki, Horticulture Chairperson, Phone: (202) 720-6791 E-mail: strzelecki@fas.usda.gov
AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
Avocado production in seven major producing countries in 1996/97 is estimated at 1.14 million tons, down 9 percent from 1995/96. A 20-percent decline in Mexico's production is expected to be partially offset by increases in the Dominican Republic, Chile, Israel, the United States, and South Africa.
Mexico: The 1996/97 crop (harvested August 1996 through July 1997) is forecast at 635,000 tons, down 20 percent from the revised 1995/96 estimate because of excessive rainfall, hail, and low temperatures during the flowering season of the Michoacan crop. The inclement weather caused early fruit drop, lower yields, and smaller-sized fruit.
The area planted to avocados in 1996/97 is forecast at 93,000 hectares, virtually unchanged from last season; harvested area is forecast up slightly, to 90,100 hectares. Harvested area is likely to remain stable over the next few years because the state of Michoacan, which accounts for approximately 85 percent of Mexico's annual avocado output, has run out of land suitable for avocado cultivation. However, given the significant number of new trees planted in the late-1980's and early-1990's, total production is expected to expand approximately 30 percent between 1998 and the year 2000 as trees reach full maturity.
Farmgate prices for export-quality fruit are averaging 60 to 70 percent above last season, well above the 26 percent rate of inflation. The average farmgate price for 1996/97 is estimated at about 1,200 pesos per ton (US$156 per ton) for the peak season (November through April). During the off season (May through September), growers may receive over 2,500 pesos per ton (US$325 per ton). Growers have succeeded in commanding superior prices this season because of the short crop and skillful price negotiations.
United States: Avocado production in the United States for 1995/96 is estimated at 168,100 tons, up 5 percent from 1994/95. A 5-percent increase in yield boosted output in 1995/96, despite a slight decline in bearing area. Preliminary assessments for 1996/97 indicate production of approximately 173,000 tons--up 3 percent from 1995/96. However, strong winds in December and the threat of January frosts may temper the initial 1996/97 projection of a 2-percent increase in the California crop.
Avocados are harvested year-round in California, which accounts for approximately 89 percent of total U.S. production. The main harvest in Florida runs from July through February. The official 1996/97 estimate of total U.S. avocado production will be available from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in July 1997.
Vominican Republic: Avocado production in 1996/97 (June/May) is forecast at 97,940 tons, up 31 percent from 1995/96 because of improved weather and an increase in bearing area. Of total output, export production is estimated to comprise about 15,000 tons. Continued growth in the industry is expected as global awareness and demand for avocados expands.
Production of avocados occurs nearly year-round (June through April) in the Dominican Republic, but the main harvest period runs from early-November through late-December. Although there are 18 grafted varieties of avocados cultivated in the Dominican Republic, the varieties most popularly grown for export include Simmonds, Popenoe, Semil No. 34 and No.43, Melendez, Hass, Hall, Booth, Lula, and Choquette.
Israel: Avocado production for 1996/97 (October/September) is forecast at 85,000 tons, up 9 percent from the revised 1995/96 estimate of 78,100 because of favorable weather. However, declining profitability and water scarcity are likely to keep output below the 100,000-ton mark for the foreseeable future.
The area planted to avocados is estimated at about 8,000 hectares. Because of high production costs and water shortages, some plantings in marginal areas have been uprooted over the past several years. Production by the year 2000 is projected to stabilize at approximately 90,000 tons, of which approximately 70 percent will be exported.
Chile: Avocado production for the 1996/97 season (January-December 1997) is forecast at an all-time high of 59,400 tons, up from 51,200 in 1995/96. The previous record was set during the 1995/96 season as a result of near-perfect weather throughout most of the growing season. A further increase is forecast in 1996/97 as a large number of orchards reach bearing age. Production is projected to surpass 90,000 tons by the year 2000, with the Hass variety comprising approximately 70,000 tons of the total.
The area planted to avocados in 1996/97 is forecast at 13,610 hectares, up 6 percent from last season; harvested area is forecast at 6,880 hectares, up 13 percent from 1995/96. The increase in plantings reflects the stimulus provided by high producer prices during the past few years and a favorable export climate. Harvested area should continue to expand over the next five years as previously planted trees mature.
Avocados are harvested year-round in Chile, but the principal harvest period extends from September through December. Approximately 95 percent of all commercial avocado trees are planted in the central part of the country--from Region IV through Region VI, including the Metropolitan Region. Most of the expansion in the industry can be attributed to increased plantings of the Hass variety, which comprises over 55 percent of Chile's total avocado area.
South Africa: The 1996/97 (November/October) avocado crop is estimated at a record 57,000 tons, up 8 percent from 1995/96. Rains during the later part of 1995 significantly improved production in 1995/96 and alleviated irrigation water shortages experienced prior to the 1995/96 season. Dams are currently full, which means that water supplies are guaranteed for the next few years.
The South African avocado industry is in an active growth mode. As of the 1995/96 season, 30 percent of the area planted to avocados had not yet come into production and 48 percent had not yet reached full production. Consequently, output is projected to increase over the next few years, even if the rate of new plantings slows.
Avocados are harvested year-round in South Africa, depending upon the variety, with most of the crop harvested from July through October. The Fuerte and Hass varieties normally account for about 75 percent of the South African crop; the remainder is comprised of the Ryan, Edranol, and Pinkerton varieties. Approximately 11,050 hectares are planted to avocados in South Africa, mainly in the Eastern Transvaal.
Spain: Avocado production in 1996/97 (July/June) is forecast at 34,000 tons, 15 percent below last year's output of 40,000 because of an off-year in the bearing cycle and lingering drought damage sustained by orchards during the past few years. The area planted to avocados is forecast at 8,500 hectares, down slightly from 1995/96; harvested area is forecast up slightly, to 8,000 hectares.
Although avocados are harvested October through June, the bulk of the crop is taken off between November and January. Spain's avocado industry is concentrated in Andalucia (mainly in the provinces of Granada and Malaga), which accounts for about 90 percent of the total area under cultivation. The balance of the crop is produced in the Canary Islands and, to a lesser extent, in the Levant. The total area devoted to avocado production will likely remain stable over the long term, vacillating in sync with the availability of irrigation water supplies.
AVOCADO PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons)
1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1/
Mexico 709.0 799.0 790.0 635.0
United States 130.4 159.9 168.1 173.0 2/
Dominican Republic 40.0 48.0 74.8 97.9
Israel 49.0 57.8 78.1 85.0
Chile 50.0 48.0 51.2 59.4
South Africa 52.2 48.2 53.0 57.0
Spain 51.7 35.1 40.0 34.0
Total 1,082.3 1,196.0 1,255.2 1,141.3
1/ Forecast.
2/ The official, survey-based 1996/97 estimate of U.S. avocado production will be available from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) in July 1997. The estimate in the table above is derived from a preliminary estimate for California provided by the California Avocado Commission and FAS estimates for Florida and Hawaii.
Kelly Kirby Strzelecki, Horticulture Chairperson, Phone: (202) 720-6791, E-mail: strzelecki@fas.usda.gov
DAIRY PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
World milk production for 1997 in selected countries is forecast at 386.86 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996. Production increases are projected for most countries other than the European Union and Russia.
Milk cow numbers continued trending downward in 1996, to 133.93 million head, but rising output-per-cow due to genetic improvements maintained milk production at a relatively stable level. The beginning 1997 milk cow inventory, at 133.38 million head, is down slightly from 1996, but the upward trend in milk yield continued, boosting total milk production.
Cheese production in the selected countries during 1997 is forecast at 12.09 million tons, up 2 percent from 1996. In a majority of the producing countries, output is projected to remain stable or show a modest increase due to expanding milk supplies and rising demand.
Butter production in the selected countries during 1997 is forecast at 5.30 million tons, up marginally from 1996 largely due to increased production in Argentina, Brazil, Germany, India, Japan, and Oceania.
Nonfat dry milk production for 1997 is forecast at 2.99 million tons, down 2 percent from 1996. The downturn is due to reductions forecast for the United States and the European Union.
In contrast, production of whole milk powder is forecast up 4 percent from 1996, to 2.29 million tons, mainly because of increases in Argentina, Brazil, China, and Oceania. The upturn reflects strong demand and expanding productive capacity in these countries.
Arthur Hausamann, Agricultural Economist, Phone: (202) 720-8883, E-mail: hausamann@fas.usda.gov
COW MILK PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/ 1997 2/
Canada 7,633 7,500 7,750 7,920 8,000 7,930
Mexico 10,700 10,720 11,010 11,120 11,450 11,500
United States 68,440 68,303 69,701 70,599 70,100 70,675
NORTH AMERICA 86,773 86,523 88,461 89,639 89,550 90,105
Argentina 7,000 7,400 7,800 8,500 8,900 9,500
Brazil 15,538 16,250 16,700 18,375 19,845 21,432
Chile 1,590 1,700 1,844 1,950 2,030 2,190
Peru 620 630 641 665 721 780
Venezuela 1,575 1,655 1,359 1,300 1,300 1,350
SOUTH AMERICA 26,323 27,635 28,344 30,790 32,796 35,252
Austria 3,254 3,237 3,245 3,116 3,053 2,991
Belgium-Luxembourg
3,775 3,612 3,607 3,645 3,560 3,508
Denmark 4,605 4,661 4,641 4,673 4,650 4,625
Finland 2,467 2,494 2,510 2,473 2,446 2,423
France 25,315 25,049 25,322 25,491 25,420 25,430
Germany 28,106 28,080 27,866 28,621 28,900 28,600
Greece 690 75 750 690 695 680
Ireland 5,588 5,529 5,598 5,655 5,690 5,617
Italy 11,300 10,400 10,365 10,500 10,300 10,000
Netherlands 10,901 10,953 10,964 11,294 11,180 11,202
Portugal 1,490 1,453 1,485 1,680 1,730 1,780
Spain 6,000 6,130 5,900 6,000 5,900 5,900
Sweden 3,200 3,287 3,357 3,250 3,240 3,230
United Kingdom 14,428 14,645 14,920 14,700 14,600 14,550
EUROPEAN UNION 121,119 120,282 120,530 121,788 121,354 120,536
Switzerland 3,873 3,862 3,887 3,913 3,883 3,883
OTHER WESTERN EUROPE
3,873 3,862 3,887 3,913 3,883 3,883
Poland 13,060 12,650 11,822 11,420 11,550 11,800
Romania 4,346 4,585 5,215 5,885 5,985 6,030
EASTERN EUROPE 17,406 17,235 17,037 17,305 17,535 17,830
Russia 46,776 46,300 42,800 39,300 35,200 32,500
Ukraine 19,114 18,377 18,138 17,181 16,700 16,500
FORMER SOVIET UNION
65,890 64,677 60,938 56,481 51,900 49,000
China 5,031 4,990 5,288 5,764 6,200 6,700
India 3/ 29,400 30,600 31,000 32,500 33,500 34,500
Japan 8,581 8,627 8,388 8,382 8,650 8,700
ASIA 43,012 44,217 44,676 46,646 48,350 49,900
Australia 4/ 6,918 7,530 8,300 8,433 8,957 9,352
New Zealand 5/ 8,603 8,735 9,719 9,684 10,405 11,000
OCEANIA 15,521 16,265 18,019 18,117 19,362 20,352
TOTAL 379,917 380,696 381,892 384,679 384,730 386,858
1/ Preliminary.
2/ Forecast.
3/ Year beginning April 1 of the year shown.
4/ Year ending June 30 of the year shown.
5/ Year ending May 31 of the year shown.
January 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, USDA
MILK COW NUMBERS IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Head)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/ 1997 2/
Canada 1,297 1,263 1,267 1,276 1,279 1,280
Mexico 6,470 6,480 6,480 6,440 6,440 6,500
United States 9,688 9,589 9,500 9,461 9,360 9,255
NORTH AMERICA 17,455 17,332 17,247 17,177 17,079 17,035
Argentina 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,350 2,300 2,400
Brazil 17,800 18,000 17,500 17,500 17,200 17,220
Chile 700 740 760 770 778 782
Peru 550 553 563 580 600 610
Venezuela 1,181 1,267 1,150 1,100 1,100 1,150
SOUTH AMERICA 22,331 22,760 22,273 22,300 21,978 22,162
Austria 841 818 804 747 710 689
Belgium-Luxembourg 849 792 754 720 680 668
Denmark 746 708 699 703 712 705
Finland 427 423 415 413 399 395
France 4,968 4,674 4,615 4,754 4,672 4,630
Germany 5,365 5,365 5,301 5,273 5,229 5,170
Greece 235 233 230 210 205 200
Ireland 1,293 1,262 1,274 1,269 1,267 1,275
Italy 2,535 2,317 2,287 2,167 2,100 2,030
Netherlands 1,739 1,747 1,698 1,709 1,700 1,695
Portugal 404 381 375 368 366 364
Spain 1,600 1,360 1,379 1,351 1,213 1,200
Sweden 490 490 490 475 470 465
United Kingdom 2,287 2,279 2,318 2,268 2,202 2,160
EUROPEAN UNION 23,779 22,849 22,639 22,427 21,925 21,646
Switzerland 768 753 761 759 755 752
OTHER WESTERN EUROPE 768 753 761 759 755 752
Poland 4,363 4,111 3,866 3,715 3,555 3,600
Romania 1,710 1,530 1,780 1,778 1,800 1,810
EASTERN EUROPE 6,073 5,641 5,646 5,493 5,355 5,410
Russia 20,600 20,243 19,800 18,400 17,400 16,100
Ukraine 8,263 8,057 8,078 7,818 7,529 7,425
FORMER SOVIET UNION
28,863 28,300 27,878 26,218 24,929 23,525
China 1,542 1,715 1,885 2,138 2,400 2,600
India 3/ 31,000 31,000 31,500 33,000 33,500 34,000
Japan 1,081 1,084 1,052 1,034 1,035 1,040
ASIA 33,623 33,799 34,437 36,172 36,935 37,640
Australia 4/ 1,652 1,760 1,762 1,786 1,822 1,924
New Zealand 5/ 2,642 2,723 2,808 2,994 3,153 3,260
OCEANIA 4,294 4,483 4,570 4,780 4,975 5,184
TOTAL 137,186 135,917 135,451 135,326 133,931 133,379
1/ Preliminary.
2/ Forecast.
3/ Year beginning April 1 of the year shown.
4/ Year ending June 30 of the year shown.
5/ Year ending May 31 of the year shown.
January 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division,FAS, USDA
BUTTER PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/ 1997 2/
Canada 86 83 88 93 100 95
Mexico 28 22 22 22 22 20
United States 619 596 588 572 530 515
NORTH AMERICA 733 701 698 687 652 630
Argentina 37 36 43 51 55 65
Brazil 65 65 60 65 70 75
SOUTH AMERICA 102 101 103 116 125 140
Austria 43 43 42 42 45 46
Belgium-Luxembourg 75 73 73 91 89 91
Denmark 62 59 59 54 56 55
Finland 56 54 54 53 53 53
France 454 444 444 455 475 470
Germany 474 480 461 486 475 490
Greece 7 7 6 6 5 5
Ireland 142 135 136 150 154 150
Italy 76 73 77 81 81 81
Netherlands 191 184 159 132 125 123
Portugal 16 17 17 19 21 23
Spain 29 25 19 25 22 20
Sweden 37 39 32 34 34 34
United Kingdom 127 152 154 126 125 124
EUROPEAN UNION 1,789 1,785 1,733 1,754 1,760 1,765
Switzerland 38 38 41 42 41 40
OTHER WESTERN EUROPE 38 38 41 42 41 40
Poland 180 180 160 163 165 160
Romania 20 14 13 16 17 17
EASTERN EUROPE 200 194 173 179 182 177
Russia 762 732 488 419 350 350
Ukraine 303 312 254 219 200 190
FORMER SOVIET UNION
1,065 1,044 742 638 550 540
Egypt 4 5 7 6 7 8
NORTH AFRICA 4 5 7 6 7 8
India 3/ 1,060 1,110 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,450
Japan 95 108 80 80 86 91
ASIA 1,155 1,218 1,280 1,380 1,486 1,541
Australia 4/ 116 131 147 138 153 159
New Zealand 5/ 268 276 297 301 285 300
OCEANIA 384 407 444 439 438 459
TOTAL 5,470 5,493 5,221 5,241 5,241 5,300
1/ Preliminary.
2/ Forecast.
3/ Year beginning April 1 of the year shown.
4/ Year ending June 30 of the year shown.
5/ Year ending May 31 of the year shown.
January 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, USDA
CHEESE PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/ 1997 2/
Canada 262 271 282 277 275 275
Mexico 390 395 410 400 405 400
United States 2,943 2,961 3,054 3,122 3,255 3,340
NORTH AMERICA 3,595 3,627 3,746 3,799 3,935 4,015
Argentina 310 350 385 370 370 400
Brazil 296 310 330 360 390 415
Venezuela 70 72 74 76 77 76
SOUTH AMERICA 676 732 789 806 837 891
Austria 84 84 84 79 78 78
Belgium-Luxembourg 51 54 56 54 58 60
Denmark 290 321 286 309 290 295
Finland 76 77 80 83 83 83
France 1,489 1,509 1,541 1,576 1,585 1,590
Germany 783 821 855 880 910 915
Greece 200 203 202 200 195 190
Ireland 95 94 92 80 90 90
Italy 890 885 913 942 945 945
Netherlands 634 637 648 680 688 695
Portugal 65 65 69 70 71 72
Spain 154 162 160 165 160 160
Sweden 117 126 133 130 134 132
United Kingdom 324 331 326 353 355 345
EUROPEAN UNION 5,252 5,369 5,445 5,601 5,642 5,650
Switzerland 141 138 137 132 138 135
OTHER WESTERN EUROPE 141 138 137 132 138 135
Poland 101 113 129 123 130 135
Romania 95 90 91 90 92 95
EASTERN EUROPE 196 203 220 213 222 230
Russia 299 313 285 217 200 205
Ukraine 113 102 105 72 85 82
FORMER SOVIET UNION 412 415 390 289 285 287
Egypt 290 300 305 310 315 317
NORTH AFRICA 290 300 305 310 315 317
Japan 30 32 30 30 30 30
ASIA 30 32 30 30 30 30
Australia 3/ 197 211 234 241 268 278
New Zealand 4/ 142 145 192 197 236 260
OCEANIA 339 356 426 438 504 538
TOTAL 10,931 11,172 11,488 11,618 11,908 12,093
1/ Preliminary.
2/ Forecast.
3/ Year ending June 30 of the year shown.
4/ Year ending May 31 of the year shown.
January 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, USDA
NONFAT DRY MILK PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/ 1997 2/
Canada 55 52 59 71 75 70
Mexico 12 18 20 30 30 30
United States 396 433 558 560 480 420
NORTH AMERICA 463 503 637 661 585 520
Argentina 25 22 27 37 42 55
Brazil 55 50 45 60 64 73
Chile 4 5 6 6 6 6
Venezuela 3 3 3 3 3 4
SOUTH AMERICA 87 80 81 106 115 138
Austria 28 25 23 20 18 17
Belgium-Luxembourg 54 52 50 52 50 48
Denmark 13 20 21 18 28 24
Finland 15 14 15 13 11 10
France 359 346 347 356 375 380
Germany 395 427 374 399 390 380
Ireland 131 139 135 119 126 120
Netherlands 50 58 38 32 28 26
Portugal 12 10 10 12 13 14
Spain 23 15 13 20 18 16
Sweden 30 37 34 30 30 30
United Kingdom 102 125 128 116 118 105
EUROPEAN UNION 1,212 1,268 1,188 1,187 1,205 1,170
Switzerland 26 25 28 29 30 29
OTHER WESTERN EUROPE 26 25 28 29 30 29
Poland 139 156 112 128 121 125
EASTERN EUROPE 139 156 112 128 121 125
Russia 247 230 210 190 180 180
Ukraine 59 53 40 35 30 30
FORMER SOVIET UNION 306 283 250 225 210 210
China 34 30 34 35 37 40
India 3/ 65 75 95 100 105 110
Japan 206 222 184 190 202 210
ASIA 305 327 313 325 344 360
Australia 4/ 160 179 221 210 229 235
New Zealand 5/ 162 150 168 178 196 198
OCEANIA 322 329 389 388 425 433
TOTAL 2,860 2,971 2,998 3,049 3,035 2,985
1/ Preliminary.
2/ Forecast.
3/ Year beginning April 1 of the year shown.
4/ Year ending June 30 of the year shown.
5/ Year ending May 31 of the year shown.
January 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, USDA
WHOLE MILK POWDER PRODUCTION IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
(1,000 Metric tons)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1/ 1997 2/
Canada 11 10 8 5 10 9
United States 76 70 76 78 59 63
NORTH AMERICA 87 80 84 83 69 72
Argentina 78 81 102 146 166 190
Brazil 170 160 175 200 220 240
Chile 47 51 54 61 61 62
Peru 1 1 3 3 4 4
Venezuela 67 72 63 60 52 45
SOUTH AMERICA 363 365 397 470 503 541
Belgium-Luxembourg 40 50 66 73 80 85
Denmark 103 103 114 109 105 105
France 183 210 212 216 205 205
Germany 224 202 202 221 195 195
Ireland 29 32 36 34 34 35
Netherlands 130 143 135 122 120 121
Portugal 7 7 7 6 6 5
Spain 17 17 18 18 17 17
United Kingdom 84 71 83 90 86 84
EUROPEAN UNION 817 835 873 889 848 852
China 306 265 265 317 333 350
ASIA 306 265 265 317 333 350
Australia 4/ 67 80 93 104 113 118
New Zealand 5/ 274 308 333 342 326 355
OCEANIA 341 388 426 446 439 473
TOTAL 1,914 1,933 2,045 2,271 2,247 2,343
1/ Preliminary.
2/ Forecast.
3/ Year beginning April 1 of the year shown.
4/ Year ending June 30 of the year shown.
5/ Year ending May 31 of the year shown.
January 1997 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS/USDA
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