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This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-322) January 10, 1997.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on February 13, 1997.
WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1996/97--
January 1997
------------1996/97------------- CHANGE
CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM
COUNTRY ESTIMATES CHANGE CHANGE 1995/96
(MMT) (MMT) (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
WHEAT
World 579.1 -0.5 -0 +8
Production is estimated lower this month due to a decline
in the total foreign category.
United States 62.1 NC NC +5
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 517.0 -0.5 -0 +8
Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in Ukraine
which more than offset an increase in the European Union.
Ukraine 13.5 -1.0 -7 -17
Production is estimated lower based on preliminary official
data reporting lower yield.
European Union 99.3 +0.3 +0 +15
Production is estimated higher due to increases in area
and yield for France.
COARSE GRAINS
World 884.7 -0.8 -0 +11
Production is estimated lower as a decrease in the
total foreign category more than offset an increase in
the United States.
United States 267.6 +0.3 +0 +28
Production is estimated higher as an increase in corn output
more than offset a decline in sorghum.
Total Foreign 617.1 -1.0 -0 +5
Production is estimated lower mainly due to a decrease in
Ukraine which more than offset an increase in Yugoslavia.
Ukraine 8.4 -1.5 -15 -46
Production is estimated lower based on preliminary official
data indicating reduced yields for barley, oats, and corn;
however, rye is revised higher.
Yugoslavia 9.2 +0.5 +6 +1
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in corn yield.
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
World 376.8 +0 +0 +2
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in the
total foreign category that more than offset a decline in
the United States.
United States 5.6 -0.1 -2 -1
Production is estimated lower due to a decrease in harvested
area. However, yield is estimated at a record.
Total Foreign 371.2 +0.1 +0 +2
Production is forecast higher due to increases in Pakistan
and Thailand; however, output in Vietnam is revised lower.
Pakistan 4.3 +0.5 +12 +8
Production is estimated at a record due to an increase
in area and a favorable growing season.
Thailand 14.4 +0.2 +1 NC
Production is estimated higher based on harvest results from
the main-season crop indicating higher yield.
Vietnam 17.0 -0.5 -3 -3
Production is estimated lower due to flood damage that
reduced area.
OILSEEDS
World 255.3 +0 +0 -0
Production is forecast slightly higher based on increased
output in the total foreign category which more than offset
a decrease in the United States.
United States 74.9 -0.3 -0 +8
Production is estimated lower due to reduced soybean yield.
Total Foreign 180.4 +0.3 +0 -3
Production is forecast slightly higher primarily due to
an upward revision in the sunflowerseed estimate for Russia.
Oilseeds in the European Union and Eastern Europe are revised down
slightly.
Russia 3.3 +0.3 +10 -29
Production is estimated higher based on harvest reports
indicating improved sunflowerseed yield.
PALM OIL
World 16.4 NC NC +5
No change this month. Production is forecast at a record,
up 0.7 million tons from last year.
ON ------------1996/97------------- CHANGE
CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM
COUNTRY ESTIMATES CHANGE CHANGE 1995/96
(MMT) (MMT) (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
United States 19.0 +0.2 +1 +6
Production is estimated higher due to increases in area
and yield.
Total Foreign 67.4 +0.2 +0 -9
Production is estimated higher primarily due to increases in
Sudan and Iran.
Sudan 0.6 +0.1 +18 +33
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in area
which more than offset a decline in yield.
Iran 0.7 +0.1 +18 +3
Production is estimated higher resulting from an increase in area.
WHEAT : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Dec. 12 Jan. 10
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 524.750 536.894 579.589 579.086
Area MIL. HA 215.191 219.735 229.998 230.028
Yield MT/HA 2.439 2.443 2.520 2.517
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 63.167 59.400 62.099 62.099
Area MIL. HA 24.998 24.664 25.435 25.435
Yield MT/HA 2.527 2.408 2.441 2.441
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 461.583 477.494 517.490 516.987
Area MIL. HA 190.193 195.071 204.563 204.593
Yield MT/HA 2.427 2.448 2.530 2.527
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.300 9.200 15.500 15.500
Area MIL. HA 5.100 4.781 6.600 6.600
Yield MT/HA 2.216 1.924 2.348 2.348
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 8.903 16.975 21.500 21.500
Area MIL. HA 8.003 9.721 11.100 11.100
Yield MT/HA 1.112 1.746 1.937 1.937
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 23.122 25.037 30.500 30.500
Area MIL. HA 10.838 11.253 12.650 12.650
Yield MT/HA 2.133 2.225 2.411 2.411
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 84.541 86.157 99.020 99.320
Area MIL. HA 15.786 16.127 17.060 17.090
Yield MT/HA 5.355 5.342 5.804 5.812
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 59.904 58.923 64.160 63.350
Area MIL. HA 42.218 45.310 47.300 47.310
Yield MT/HA 1.419 1.300 1.356 1.339
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 33.962 34.990 26.360 26.360
Area MIL. HA 10.072 9.710 8.730 8.730
Yield MT/HA 3.372 3.604 3.019 3.019
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 99.300 102.215 109.000 109.000
Area MIL. HA 28.981 28.860 29.500 29.500
Yield MT/HA 3.426 3.542 3.695 3.695
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 59.840 65.470 62.620 62.620
Area MIL. HA 25.100 25.600 25.100 25.100
Yield MT/HA 2.384 2.557 2.495 2.495
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 15.212 17.002 16.907 16.907
Area MIL. HA 8.034 8.170 8.376 8.376
Yield MT/HA 1.893 2.081 2.019 2.019
TURKEY
Production MIL. MT 14.700 15.500 16.500 16.500
Area MIL. HA 8.600 8.550 8.450 8.450
Yield MT/HA 1.709 1.813 1.953 1.953
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 4.151 3.460 3.200 3.200
Area MIL. HA 0.965 0.870 0.800 0.800
Yield MT/HA 4.302 3.977 4.000 4.000
OTHER W. EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.805 0.946 0.975 0.921
Area MIL. HA 0.171 0.166 0.173 0.163
Yield MT/HA 4.708 5.699 5.636 5.650
==================================================================
Jan. 10,1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
CORN : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Dec. 12 Jan. 10
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 560.225 514.069 572.614 573.154
Area MIL. HA 134.335 133.471 139.438 139.280
Yield MT/HA 4.170 3.852 4.107 4.115
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 256.621 187.305 235.349 236.064
Area MIL. HA 29.496 26.303 29.651 29.602
Yield MT/HA 8.700 7.121 7.937 7.975
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 303.604 326.764 337.265 337.090
Area MIL. HA 104.839 107.168 109.787 109.678
Yield MT/HA 2.896 3.049 3.072 3.073
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.100 10.700 13.500 13.500
Area MIL. HA 2.500 2.600 3.200 3.200
Yield MT/HA 4.440 4.115 4.219 4.219
SOUTH AFRICA
Production MIL. MT 4.845 10.200 9.500 9.500
Area MIL. HA 2.952 3.300 3.400 3.400
Yield MT/HA 1.641 3.091 2.794 2.794
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 3.800 3.700 4.000 4.000
Area MIL. HA 1.200 1.140 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 3.167 3.246 3.333 3.333
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 22.716 25.371 24.970 25.470
Area MIL. HA 7.068 6.949 7.085 7.085
Yield MT/HA 3.214 3.651 3.524 3.595
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 28.298 28.952 34.030 34.030
Area MIL. HA 3.717 3.690 4.111 4.051
Yield MT/HA 7.613 7.846 8.278 8.400
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 4.032 6.990 4.085 3.405
Area MIL. HA 1.880 2.465 2.097 2.097
Yield MT/HA 2.145 2.836 1.948 1.624
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 17.005 16.000 17.500 17.500
Area MIL. HA 8.022 7.000 7.500 7.500
Yield MT/HA 2.120 2.286 2.333 2.333
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 99.280 112.000 117.000 117.000
Area MIL. HA 21.152 22.767 23.500 23.500
Yield MT/HA 4.694 4.919 4.979 4.979
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 37.440 32.480 34.000 34.000
Area MIL. HA 14.189 13.767 14.000 14.000
Yield MT/HA 2.639 2.359 2.429 2.429
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 4.534 4.300 4.300 4.300
Area MIL. HA 2.967 2.760 2.700 2.700
Yield MT/HA 1.528 1.558 1.593 1.593
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 5.500 6.200 6.000 6.000
Area MIL. HA 3.109 3.652 3.500 3.500
Yield MT/HA 1.769 1.698 1.714 1.714
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 7.043 7.271 7.200 7.200
Area MIL. HA 0.955 1.003 1.040 1.040
Yield MT/HA 7.375 7.249 6.923 6.923
==================================================================
Jan. 10,1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Dec. 12 Jan. 10
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 137.783 124.387 132.581 132.010
Area MIL. HA 62.207 61.351 63.263 63.236
Yield MT/HA 2.215 2.027 2.096 2.088
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 68.493 59.243 65.388 64.837
Area MIL. HA 24.629 24.938 25.673 25.661
Yield MT/HA 2.781 2.376 2.547 2.527
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 69.290 65.144 67.193 67.173
Area MIL. HA 37.578 36.413 37.590 37.575
Yield MT/HA 1.844 1.789 1.788 1.788
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 12.650 12.640 13.000 13.000
Area MIL. HA 5.700 5.980 6.000 6.000
Yield MT/HA 2.219 2.114 2.167 2.167
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 25.900 23.400 26.000 26.000
Area MIL. HA 11.680 10.950 12.200 12.200
Yield MT/HA 2.217 2.137 2.131 2.131
PARAGUAY
Production MIL. MT 2.200 2.300 2.500 2.500
Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.100 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 2.000 2.091 2.083 2.083
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 16.000 13.500 12.500 12.500
Area MIL. HA 9.222 8.127 7.500 7.500
Yield MT/HA 1.735 1.661 1.667 1.667
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 1.680 1.560 1.550 1.550
Area MIL. HA 1.477 1.390 1.400 1.400
Yield MT/HA 1.137 1.122 1.107 1.107
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.256 0.303 0.352 0.352
Area MIL. HA 0.164 0.178 0.214 0.214
Yield MT/HA 1.561 1.702 1.645 1.645
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 1.032 0.939 1.090 1.070
Area MIL. HA 0.352 0.291 0.329 0.314
Yield MT/HA 2.932 3.227 3.313 3.408
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 2.251 2.293 2.170 2.170
Area MIL. HA 0.820 0.824 0.860 0.860
Yield MT/HA 2.745 2.783 2.523 2.523
==================================================================
Jan. 10,1997 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD
COTTON : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Dec. 12 Jan. 10
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. BALES 85.520 91.822 85.934 86.367
Area MIL. HA 32.149 35.429 33.324 33.535
Yield KG/HA 579 564 561 561
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. BALES 19.662 17.900 18.738 18.951
Area MIL. HA 5.391 6.478 5.172 5.193
Yield KG/HA 794 602 789 795
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. BALES 65.858 73.922 67.196 67.416
Area MIL. HA 26.758 28.951 28.152 28.342
Yield KG/HA 536 556 520 518
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. BALES 1.539 1.929 2.600 2.600
Area MIL. HA 0.222 0.304 0.390 0.390
Yield KG/HA 1,509 1,382 1,452 1,452
CENTRAL AMERICA
Production MIL. BALES 0.052 0.065 0.047 0.047
Area MIL. HA 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.013
Yield KG/HA 666 745 787 787
EGYPT
Production MIL. BALES 1.170 1.088 1.680 1.680
Area MIL. HA 0.305 0.306 0.387 0.387
Yield KG/HA 835 774 945 945
MEXICO
Production MIL. BALES 0.458 0.860 1.100 1.100
Area MIL. HA 0.146 0.242 0.300 0.300
Yield KG/HA 683 774 798 798
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. BALES 6.250 8.200 6.800 6.800
Area MIL. HA 2.650 3.048 3.200 3.200
Yield KG/HA 514 586 463 463
SUDAN
Production MIL. BALES 0.400 0.490 0.550 0.650
Area MIL. HA 0.174 0.220 0.240 0.350
Yield KG/HA 501 485 499 404
TURKEY
Production MIL. BALES 2.886 3.845 3.500 3.500
Area MIL. HA 0.582 0.741 0.714 0.714
Yield KG/HA 1,080 1,130 1,067 1,067
FSU-12
Production MIL. BALES 8.778 8.260 6.570 6.570
Area MIL. HA 2.707 2.573 2.545 2.545
Yield KG/HA 706 699 562 562
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. BALES 1.608 1.800 1.950 1.950
Area MIL. HA 0.700 0.940 0.900 0.900
Yield KG/HA 500 417 472 472
BRAZIL
Production MIL. BALES 2.526 1.791 1.400 1.400
Area MIL. HA 1.220 1.130 0.750 0.750
Yield KG/HA 451 345 406 406
CHINA
Production MIL. BALES 19.900 21.900 17.500 17.500
Area MIL. HA 5.530 5.422 4.800 4.800
Yield KG/HA 784 879 794 794
INDIA
Production MIL. BALES 10.814 12.493 12.300 12.300
Area MIL. HA 7.861 8.650 8.500 8.500
Yield KG/HA 300 314 315 315
==================================================================
Jan. 10,1997 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD
RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Dec. 12 Jan. 10
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 365.356 370.860 376.774 376.836
Area MIL. HA 148.090 148.621 148.487 148.420
Yield MT/HA 2.467 2.495 2.537 2.539
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 6.648 5.631 5.682 5.595
Area MIL. HA 1.342 1.252 1.177 1.133
Yield MT/HA 4.954 4.498 4.828 4.938
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 358.708 365.229 371.092 371.241
Area MIL. HA 146.748 147.369 147.310 147.287
Yield MT/HA 2.444 2.478 2.519 2.521
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 3.447 3.936 3.800 4.260
Area MIL. HA 2.107 2.162 2.000 2.230
Yield MT/HA 1.636 1.821 1.900 1.910
BURMA
Production MIL. MT 9.280 10.000 10.440 10.440
Area MIL. HA 5.517 5.700 5.700 5.700
Yield MT/HA 1.682 1.754 1.832 1.832
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 14.124 14.400 14.200 14.400
Area MIL. HA 9.196 9.250 9.200 9.200
Yield MT/HA 1.536 1.557 1.543 1.565
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 123.151 129.650 132.000 132.000
Area MIL. HA 30.171 30.700 30.700 30.700
Yield MT/HA 4.082 4.223 4.300 4.300
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 32.333 32.700 33.500 33.500
Area MIL. HA 11.439 11.400 11.600 11.600
Yield MT/HA 2.827 2.868 2.888 2.888
REP. OF KOREA
Production MIL. MT 5.060 4.694 5.320 5.320
Area MIL. HA 1.102 1.056 1.050 1.050
Yield MT/HA 4.592 4.445 5.067 5.067
JAPAN
Production MIL. MT 10.903 9.781 9.400 9.400
Area MIL. HA 2.212 2.118 1.967 1.967
Yield MT/HA 4.929 4.618 4.779 4.779
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 7.402 6.834 6.200 6.200
Area MIL. HA 4.242 3.880 3.700 3.700
Yield MT/HA 1.745 1.761 1.676 1.676
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 0.813 0.680 1.040 1.040
Area MIL. HA 0.128 0.149 0.165 0.165
Yield MT/HA 6.352 4.564 6.303 6.303
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 6.809 7.263 7.300 7.300
Area MIL. HA 3.668 3.924 3.950 3.950
Yield MT/HA 1.856 1.851 1.848 1.848
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 81.160 79.460 81.000 81.000
Area MIL. HA 42.500 42.300 42.500 42.500
Yield MT/HA 1.910 1.878 1.906 1.906
BANGLADESH
Production MIL. MT 16.833 17.687 18.000 18.000
Area MIL. HA 9.922 9.950 9.950 9.950
Yield MT/HA 1.697 1.778 1.809 1.809
==================================================================
Jan. 10,1997 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
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