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Capitol Comment
by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison
The Next Step in Iraq
March 9, 2007
America and its allies have fought valiantly for four years to establish a stable democracy among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds in Iraq. It has proven to be a task not achievable in a short period.
President Bush and the American people realize that a new approach is necessary. As the president's plan is implemented, I believe it is important to look beyond the immediate goal of stopping the violence. Thinking about the next step is not premature – it is essential. If the heroic warriors whom we have deployed to Iraq in defense of America are able to contain the murderous mix of terrorists, criminals, insurgents, jihadists and militia, we must seize that hard-won opportunity and move forward with a new initiative that utilizes existing authority in the Iraqi constitution.
Such a plan would create at least three separate, semiautonomous regions in which local law enforcement, commerce, security and education would be managed by local authorities. A limited central government would be responsible for ensuring an equitable division of oil revenue, conducting foreign policy and protecting national security. In fact, the Iraqi Cabinet has recently approved a draft of new legislation that would allow the distribution of oil revenue to individual regions based on population.
Henry Kissinger, in a recent appearance before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, said: "I'm sympathetic to an outcome that permits large regional autonomy. In fact, I think it is very likely that this will emerge out of the conflict that we are now witnessing."
The report of the Iraq Study Group, while not endorsing such a plan, noted that devolution into three semiautonomous regions is a "possible consequence" of continued instability and outlined a potential U.S. response if "events were to move irreversibly in this direction."
My Senate colleague Joseph Biden has spoken in favor of the semiautonomous region concept, although he has linked it to a withdrawal of almost all U.S. forces by the end of this year, a move that I believe would lead inevitably to renewed bloodshed and chaos.
Our efforts in the Balkans a little over a decade ago are instructive. The Dayton Peace Accords not only ended a war that cost 200,000 lives in ethnic strife, it also created the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina within which two semiautonomous regions were established – one with a Muslim majority, the other Serb dominated – both with broad powers of governance and operating under a central government with limited authority.
Last fall, the Iraqi parliament approved a law establishing the mechanism to create semi-independent regions. Kurdistan, in the north, is recognized specifically in the constitution as a self-governing region. The south is predominately Shiite. The majority of Sunnis are in the central and western parts of the country, intermixed with Shiites. Smaller subregions should be an option here.
An international peacekeeping force would need to be utilized. Much as the long-term success in Bosnia has depended on the involvement of peacekeeping efforts by NATO and the European Union, long-term success in Iraq will require the involvement of many nations. Regional neighbors with a large stake in a peaceful outcome could make a major contribution to a successful transition in Iraq.
The first, and most important, step in extending an initial period of stability is to recognize the cultural and sectarian divisions that have existed for 14 centuries. It is clear that loyalty to region, tribe, sect and religion will take precedence over loyalty to a central government for many years to come.
Why not accept that as fact and propose a plan that does not attempt to change the culture but instead acknowledges it?
Such a plan would secure a loosely confederated nation, create the alliances needed to maintain it and achieve success in Iraq – a country strong and stable enough to be a good neighbor, not a terrorist breeding ground.
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