a. Synoptic History
A tropical wave crossed Dakar,
Senegal on 26 June, accompanied by a few clusters of deep convection and a well defined
low-level circulation as indicated by soundings from that site. As soon as
the wave moved over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, it lost most of
the convection and remained as a westward-moving weak synoptic
feature for about two weeks. The wave crossed Central America
during the 6th and 7th of July. On the 8th, a broad low-level
circulation began to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. It took
three more days for the thunderstorms and the circulation to
consolidate. It became a tropical depression
near 0600 UTC 12 July, about 850 n mi south-southwest of the southern tip of
Baja California.
Once the convection clustered near the center,
the depression intensified rapidly and became a hurricane
by 1200 UTC 13 July. Enrique moved between west-northwest and northwest around the
periphery of a high pressure system. During that period, Enrique
experienced some fluctuations in intensity. The eye became an
intermittent feature and these fluctuations were represented by the
increasing and decreasing of both objective and subjective Dvorak
T-numbers. It is estimated that the peak intensity of 100 knots
and a minimum pressure of 960 mb occurred at 1800 UTC 14 July.
Thereafter, the outflow became asymmetric and a weakening process
began. It is estimated that Enrique was dissipating by 1800 UTC 16
July, when it became a swirl of low clouds moving over cool waters.
Enrique's track is shown in Fig. 1 (23K GIF).
Table 1 is a listing, at
six-hourly intervals, of the best-track position,
estimated minimum central pressure and maximum 1-minute surface wind speed.
b. Meteorological Statistics
The best track pressure and wind curves as a function of time
are shown in Figs. 2 (23K GIF) and
3 (20K GIF) and are based on satellite intensity estimates from the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB),
the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)
and the Air Force Global Weather Center (AFGWC).
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
There are no reports of casualties or damage associated with Enrique.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
The average official forecast error (11 forecasts) at 24 hours
was 69 n mi and reached 183 n mi at 72 hours (3 forecasts). These
numbers are very close to the long-term mean average errors of 71
and 194 n mi, respectively.
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