Title: Integrating Prevention and Control of Invasive Species:
Lessons from Hawaii
Principal Investigator: James Roumasset
Affiliation: University of Hawaii, University Sponsored Programs
Office, Honolulu, HI
Award: $200,000
The objective of this research is to inform Federal and State level
decision makers with respect to allocating scarce resources between
exclusion and control strategies for different types of pests. The
project will employ a dynamic optimal control methodology to examine
exclusion and control strategies for three representative pests:
an established invader, a potentially explosive invader not yet
introduced, and an eradicable or controllable invader. Prior to
introduction, the methodology minimizes the expected costs of prevention
expenditures, which are dependent on the expected outcomes of a
successful introduction. Optimal control after initial introduction
of a species can take the form of maintenance of a steady-state
pest population, periodic episodes of attempted eradication, or
no control.
Title: Integrating Economics and Biology for Bioeconomic
Risk Assessment/Management of Invasive Species in Agriculture
Principal Investigator: Jason Shogren
Affiliation: University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY
Award: $185,000
This interdisciplinary project will extend the development and
application of bioeconomic modeling frameworks to integrate economic
and biological feedbacks to improve risk assessments for and policy
responses to invasive species that affect U.S. agriculture. The
modeling frameworks include bioeconomic endogenous risk stochastic
dynamic programming, optimal control/STELLA modeling, and computable
general equilibrium ecosystems models. The applicability of research
results to general USDA invasive species policy will be demonstrated
by assessing the potential for using biological agents to control
leafy spurge and purple loosestrife.
Title: Comparing Cost, Risk and Benefit Tradeoffs Under
Uncertainty: Cheatgrass Case Study
Principal Investigator: Dennis M. King
Affiliation: University of Maryland, Cambridge, MD,
Award: $87,500
Many agricultural weeds are well studied but most of the potential
new weed invaders have not been characterized in terms of their
possible impact or reversibility. This project will develop methods
to help overcome these gaps in our knowledge and to illustrate practical
and credible components of decision support tools to help justify
and prioritize regional responses to invasive plants on agricultural
and natural lands. The project will examine the role of human alteration
of landscapes in invasive species diffusion and assess the potential
for spatial (GIS) databases to be used in an analysis of economic
impacts of invasions and the irreversibility of invasions. The empirical
application will be to cheatgrass but the methods use to develop
maps and cost surfaces will be broadly applicable across a range
of potential invaders and thus have relevance to USDA invasive species
policy generally.
Title: The Feasibility of Indemnification and Check-off
Funded Programs to Manage Invasive Species Risks in Agriculture
Principal Investigator: Barry K. Goodwin
Affiliation: North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Award: $158,000
This project will evaluate economic issues associated with the
design and operation of voluntary insurance and mandatory check-off
programs that provide assistance for agricultural producers’
management of risks associated with invasive species. The project
will also include statistical modeling of the risk associated with
three case studies with the objective of pricing insurance or determining
optimal check-off contribution rates. The case studies to be examined
are karnal bunt, Asiatic citrus canker, and Canadian thistle
Title: Commodity Programs, Distorted Markets and Economic Consequences
of Invasive Species Policies
Principal Investigator: Daniel A. Sumner
Affiliation: University of California, Davis, CA
Award: $75,000
This project will examine the economic implications of invasive
species policy within the context of trade and agricultural policies,
such as commodity programs and crop insurance. Such analyses could
be useful to USDA policy makers in developing overall priorities
and response strategies for invasive species. The analytical framework
will emphasize welfare analysis, trade, and modeling how agricultural
programs influence markets. An important contribution of the research
will be applying concepts from the literature on the economics of
R&D to the problem of invasive species. The framework will be
demonstrated by application to four invasive pests of particular
interest to U.S. agriculture - citrus canker, foot and mouth disease,
karnal bunt, and rice blast.
Title: Biology and Economics of Invasive Species: Spatial and Temporal
Interactions
Principal Investigator: Colin A. Carter
Affiliation: University of California, Davis, CA
Award: $145,000
This project will examine the spatial and temporal linkages between
agricultural markets and invasive species infestations using greenhouse
whitefly infestations of California strawberries as a case study.
The objectives are to construct a general bioeconomic model of invasive
species that can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies,
to conduct a sensitivity analysis regarding the effects of key variables,
to assess management alternatives specific to whitefly infestations
in California strawberries, and to summarize findings in a way that
is useful to policymakers.
Title: Economics of Managing Infectious Wildlife Disease
When Livestock Are at Risk
Principal Investigator: Richard D. Horan
Affiliation: Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI
Award: $129,000
This project focuses on the economic issues associated with trying
to control an invasive species, in the form of a wildlife transmitted
disease, that puts U.S. livestock production at risk. The modeling
framework accounts for the biological and economic factors that
jointly determine how invasive species, wildlife and livestock ecosystems,
and human economic activities interact. The empirical application
examines economic tradeoffs associated with bovine tuberculosis
(TB) control options on and off the farm, and compares and contrasts
social incentives with private (i.e., farmer and hunter) incentives
for investing in TB control options and making decisions that affect
disease transmission risk. The project also links spatial aspects
of bovine TB with agricultural sector research. Finally, the idea
that human activities affect disease spread parameters is an important
element easily overlooked in epidemiological and biological modeling.
Hence, this research could have widespread applications in regulatory
impact analyses by providing a formal means to examine the economic
(non biological) factors that can affect spread of disease.
Title: Randomly Introduced Biological Invasions: The Economics of
Prevention and Control
Principal Investigator: Lars J. Olson
Affiliation: University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Award: $119,000
This project addresses key invasive species policy issues concerning
the tradeoffs between prevention, control, and eradication efforts.
It will employ a dynamic optimization framework that includes ecological
conditions, potential economic damages, and the costs of prevention
and control. In addition, the project will include consideration
of when it makes sense to do nothing, and how to factor in the possible
re-invasion of a damaging species. These are important issues confronting
USDA, and successful completion of the project will inform development
and implementation of invasive species policies and regulations.
Title: Design of Systems Approaches to Invasive Pest Risk Management
Principal Investigator: David Orden
Affiliation: Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Blacksburg, VA,
Award: $108,000
The objective of this research is to formulate an evaluation methodology
for regulations that adopt a "systems approach" to reducing
invasive pest risks associated with imports. A systems approach
consists of a sequential series of measures that are designed to
progressively reduce the risk of infestation. A pest-risk probability
model will be developed to determine the overall reduction in the
probability of pest infestation for each system as well as the marginal
risk reduction for each step within each system. Using the results
from the pest-risk probability model, the potential impacts on production,
consumption, trade, and producer and consumer welfare for each alternative
system will be determined using a spatial partial equilibrium model.
The goal of this research is develop a means for determining regulations
that achieve appropriate levels of risk protection and expected
economic benefits.
Title: Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International
Trade of Forest Products
Principal Investigator: Jeffrey P. Prestemon
Affiliation: USDA Forest Service, Southern Research station, Asheville,
NC
Award: $101,981
This research will focus on the economic effects of a variety of
trade regulations aimed at preventing the accidental importation
of invasive species that could damage US forest resources. The work
builds on an existing model, the Global Forest Product Model, which
is a spatial partial equilibrium model that makes projections of
forest product quantities produced, consumed, and traded for multiple
countries and commodities. This operational partial equilibrium
model would be extended to incorporate bilateral trade flows and
incorporate cost of compliance estimates of various import protocols.
The research will consider the losses incurred by producer and consumers
due to timber inventory reductions and supply shifts caused by invasive
species in the absence of regulation, as well as the full economic
effects of phytosanitary regulations that protect forest resources
but restrict trade.
Title: Tradeoffs and Resource Allocation Effects for Alternative
Invasive Species Management Policies
Principal Investigator: Thomas I. Wahl
Affiliation: Washington State University, Pullman, WA
Award: $100,000
This project examines the tradeoffs between the benefits of trade
and the economic risks from the establishment of an invasive species.
The analysis will address the economic consequences of alternative
response strategies including prevention and/or control activities
carried out in foreign countries, at U.S. ports of entry, and within
the United States. The modeling framework includes both biological
and economic components and distinguishes between risk assessment
and risk management. More specifically, the project will develop
a dynamic economic framework that integrates population dynamics,
production functions, inventory updating, consumer demand, and market
clearing conditions that allow for international trade.
Title: Controlling Exotic Species Introductions: Trade Related
Policies and Exposure
Principal Investigator: Christopher J. Costello
Affiliation: University of California, Santa Barbara, CA
Award; $68,000
This project's awardees will develop theoretical and empirical
models to analyze the physical and economic tradeoffs and complementarities
between various ex-ante policy tools, such as trade bans, port inspections,
and pre-export certifications, to mitigate the risks associated
with invasive species that are introduced via international trade.
Both the general equilibrium and partial equilibrium aspects of
trade will be examined. The research will review how U.S. exposure
to harmful exotic pests varies with the ecological characteristics
of its trade partners and the economic structure of the industries
producing traded goods. This information will be synthesized into
a series of coupled models, which will help identify optimal policies
to control the damages from exotic species introductions.
|