Spatially Analyzing and Displaying Historical Avalanche Data Using GIS

Many ski areas and mountain highways in the U.S. have extensive historical records of avalanche activity.  However, these data are only useful for operational avalanche forecasters if they can be quickly searched and if the data can be displayed appropriately.

The Forest Service National Avalanche Center worked with Chris McCollister, who was then a graduate student in the Department of Earth Sciences at Montana State University, to investigate techniques for searching historical databases and displaying avalanche data.   This work is formed the basis for Chris' MS thesis.  As a first step, Chris used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to overlay topographic data, an orthophoto, and a digitized avalanche path map for Jackson Hole Ski Area in Wyoming. The digitized avalanche map was created by Bob Comey, lead avalanche forecaster for Jackson Hole Mountain Resort.

The map above was created from a digital orthophoto overlaid with a 3 m digital elevation model. The lines represent size 2, 3, and 4 (red lines) avalanches, and a size 5 (purple line) avalanche for Laramie Bowl.

Once a map was created for the entire ski area, Chris linked the map to a sophisticated database program he wrote, GeoWAX (Geographic Weather and Avalanche eXplorer). The purpose of GeoWAX is to allow the avalanche forecaster to interact with their data. They can pick target values for a day (i.e., 12 inches of snow with moderate northwest winds) and create a probability map for all the avalanche paths in the ski area based on their historical data. This tool will be used operationally by the Jackson Hole Ski Area starting in the 2003/04 season.

This is the GeoWAX interface. The map at the upper left shows all the avalanche paths and their probabilities of avalanching under this weather scenario. The rose diagram at the upper right shows the probability of avalanching for various aspect/elevation combinations for the entire mountain.

Chris finished his thesis in 2004 and currently works as an avalanche forecaster for the Bridger Teton National Forest Avalanche Center. His recent summers have been spent working on an infrasonic avalanche detection project.

Chris's papers and thesis:

McCollister, C., K. Birkeland, K. Hansen, R. Aspinall, R. Comey. 2003. Exploring multi-scale spatial patterns in historical avalanche data, Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, Wyoming. Cold Reg. Sci. Tech. 37(3), 299-313. [Abstract] [Article]

McCollister, C.M. 2004. Geographic knowledge discovery techniques for exploring historical weather and avalanche data. M.S. Thesis, Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University. 106 pp. [PDF (2.8 MB)]

McCollister, C., K. Birkeland, K. Hansen, R. Aspinall, R. Comey. 2002. A probabilistic technique for exploring multi-scale spatial patterns in historical avalanche data by combining GIS and meteorological nearest neighbors with an example from the Jackson Hole Ski Area, Wyoming. Proceedings of the 2002 International Snow Science Workshop, Penticton, BC, Canada, 109-116. [Article (2 MB)]