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2-21-08

Media Release

After 19 Years at Helm of Oregon Climate Service, George Taylor to Retire

CORVALLIS, Ore. – For much of the past two decades, George Taylor has pored over satellite images, barometer readings, sea temperature reports, wind charts, temperature gauges and just about every climate-related source of information possible so he could help Oregon farmers, fishermen, skiers, and “just plain folks” know what to expect from the weather.

On May 1, he is officially retiring from his post as manager of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University.

“The time has come for a different challenge,” said Taylor, 60. “I depart with fond memories of my interactions with colleagues and with those outside the university. I’ll stay active in meteorology through independent consulting and pursue other opportunities, but I am comfortable leaving at this time.”

Though he is excited about pursuing consulting opportunities, Taylor said he will miss the daily interactions with Oregonians from every walk of life. “I saw my role as taking a complicated subject and simplifying it for everyday folks so they can make better decisions,” he said.

Oregonians, Taylor pointed out, are particularly fascinated by the weather. When a national grassroots organization called the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network expanded into Oregon, making it the 27th state to join, they enlisted Taylor to jump-start the process of finding a few volunteers. Within two months, more than 500 new observers had signed up to collect and report precipitation measurements around the state.

“The organizers were blown away,” Taylor said. “That more than doubled the previous number of weather observations we had in the state. But Oregonians love their weather.”

They also let Taylor know when one of his annual fall and winter forecasts falls short of the mark.

“I’ve had a couple of spectacular failures,” Taylor said with a laugh. “In two of the last 10 years, we’ve had extremely dry winters that caught everyone by surprise. For some reason, we couldn’t see the signals in advance. No one else did, either, but still you like to get things right.”

Taylor’s forecasts are right often enough that he is sought by an intriguing cross-section of agencies, organizations and individuals who want to make better-informed decisions based on what the weather may be at a given time. Taylor said he has had literally dozens of calls from the Oregon Film and Video Office over the years, usually to work with a producer to identify the perfect location for a scene.

“I remember one producer wanted to film a shot in a town located in a relatively flat location with snow on the ground in April,” Taylor said. “That’s not as easy as you might think. After a bit of research, I recommended Odell Lake – and it worked out.”

Wheat farmers routinely call him to get an idea of what kind winter to expect so they’ll know how much fertilizer to use in late summer.

“It’s gratifying, and also humbling, to help people make decisions that have such an impact on their livelihood,” Taylor said. “I asked one farmer after a meeting, ‘What if I’m right only 70 percent of the time?’ and he said that it was better than what he had now. So I asked what he’d do if my success rate dropped to 60 percent. Same answer.

“Then I said, what if I’m only right 50 percent of the time, and he pulled a quarter out of his pocket, flipped it in the air, and growled, ‘I’ve already got that.’”

Technological advances have made short-term climate forecasting much more accurate than in the past, Taylor said, though there are still surprises. The intensity of the flooding in western Oregon during November of 2006 was one such reminder that nature still has an unpredictable side. Another came in February of 2007, when a savage windstorm hit Eugene, Lebanon and the Sweet Home area.

“I remember looking at satellite data that afternoon and sitting upright and thinking, ‘Wow! Where did that come from?’” Taylor said. “Sometimes the conditions change so quickly you get caught short.”

The biggest change in his 19 years as manager of the Oregon Climate Service has been the Internet. The OCS was an early force online and had a site up and running as early as 1994. Today, the Oregon Climate Service site (http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu) – which is replete with weather and climate forecasts, observations, publications, links and other resources – logs an astounding 3.5 million hits every month.

Mark Abbott, dean of the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at OSU, said Taylor has played an enormous role in educating Oregonians on what factors influence their local weather and climate conditions.

“The data that the Oregon Climate Service provides to Oregonians is first rate,” Abbott said, “and George Taylor has been the driving force behind it.”

Abbott said the Oregon Climate Service will continue to function after Taylor’s retirement and will be managed by Cadee Hale, who has worked as Taylor’s assistant for several years.

Though Taylor is retiring from OSU, he said he plans to stay busy. He increasingly is being sought as an expert witness and consultant for “probable maximum precipitation,” or PMP scenarios, through which local decision-makers must gauge the flood potential for their nearby river system. There are implications for everything from dam and bridge safety to health concerns, he pointed out.

“This is beyond the 100-year flood estimates,” Taylor said. “Probable maximum precipitation is critically important because the consequences of a dam or bridge failure are so severe, as we learned in the Minnesota bridge collapse. The PMP guidelines are done when a new dam is built, which isn’t often, or when an established dam is re-licensed. It is an area of work I enjoy very much.”

Though he is entering a new chapter in his life, Taylor said he hopes Oregonians will still contact him with unusual weather observations and tips through his e-mail at George Taylor.

“I never get tired of hearing from people about the weather.”

About the OSU College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences: COAS is internationally recognized for its faculty, research and facilities, including state-of-the-art computing infrastructure to support real-time ocean/atmosphere observation and prediction. The college is a leader in the study of the Earth as an integrated system, providing scientific understanding to address complex environmental challenges.