(Jan 12, 2009)

China’s 2008/09 milled rice production is estimated at 135.1 million tons (193.0 million tonspaddy or rough basis), up 4.2 million from last month and up 4.9 million or 4 percent from lastyear. This is the largest crop since 1999/00. Area is estimated at 29.2 million hectares, up 1percent from last year. The estimated yield of 6.61 tons per hectare (rough) is up 3 percent fromlast year’s record yield. The revision from last month is based on provincial harvest data andreports from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and other Chinese sources that indicate higher grainyield and production. In December, the Ministry of Agriculture stated that China’s total grainproduction reached a record 528.5 million tons, up about 27 million tons from last year. Paddyrice historically accounts for 36 to 38 percent of China’s total grain outputChina produces three separate rice crops. Early rice and late rice (usually grown as a doublecrop) are grown in central and southern China and together account for about 36 percent of totalrice production, while middle/single crop rice (mainly japonica) is grown in northeast and centralChina and accounts for about 64 percent of total output. The Chinese government estimated the2008/09 early-rice crop at 32.5 million tons, up about 1.0 million from last year, with higheryields offsetting slightly lower area. Middle-crop production was expected to increase in2008/09 due to higher planted area, particularly in Heilongjiang, and generally favorableweather. Although typhoons and heavy rainfall caused localized crop damage in parts of theYangtze River basin, the impact on the rice crop was insignificant. Late-rice planting proceeded'smoothly and initial growing conditions were good. Unusually heavy rain in late October'slowed late rice development and caused quality problems in parts of southern China, but thereturn of dry weather in November aided maturation and harvest. (For more information,contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

China’s 2008/09 corn production is estimated at a record 165.5 million tons, up 5.5 million or 3percent from last month and up 9 percent from last year. Corn area is estimated at 29.4 millionhectares, down slightly from last year. The estimated yield of 5.63 tons per hectare is up 9percent from last year and exceeds the previous record of 5.33 tons per hectare set in 2006/07.The revision is based on provincial harvest data and reports from China’s Ministry of Agricultureand other Chinese sources, which indicated higher corn yield and production in 2008/09. Duringthe 2008 growing season, China’s major corn-producing provinces experienced abundantmoisture, seasonable temperatures, a general absence of drought, and only minor flood damage,resulting in excellent yields overall. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

Brazil’s corn production for 2008/09 is forecast at 51.5 million tons, down 2.0 million from last month, and down 7.1 million or 12 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at14.2 million hectares, no change from last month but down 0.5 million or 3 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.63 tons per hectare, which is above the 5-year average yield of 3.48 tons per hectare but below the 10-year trend yield of 3.87 tons per hectare. The national corn yield was decreased this month due to high temperatures and dryness in southern Brazil when the main-season crop was in the critical pollination and early grain-filling stages. The drought started in mid-November, continued though December, and was most severe in the state of Parana. Total corn area will depend on safrinha (winter) corn area which farmers will begin planting this month immediately after the early soybean harvest. Last year, safrinha area was 5.1 million hectares or 34 percent of total corn area, while this year’s safrinha area is currently forecast at 4.9 million hectares or 4.5 percent less than last year. Some industry forecasters expect that safrinha area could drop even lower due to high domestic supplies from last year’s bumper crop, low domestic corn prices, tight credit, higher climatic risks with the safrinha crop, and higher input and transport costs in central Brazil where most of the safrinha corn is grown. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at 202-690-0134.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

India's 2008/09 cotton production is estimated at 23.0 million bales, down 1.0 million or 4percent from last month, and down 1.6 million or 7 percent from last year. Area is estimated at9.35 million hectares, down 0.2 million or 2 percent from last year, and yield is estimated at 536kilograms per hectare, down 4 percent from last year. According to the FAS Office ofAgricultural Affairs in New Delhi, this season’s planted area decreased compared to last seasonbecause of delayed planting and a shift to other crops. In parts of central and southern India,planting was delayed due to insufficient July rainfall. The delays resulted in a relatively shorterplanting window. Additionally, farmers in some parts of the country, including Gujarat andMaharashtra, decided to plant short-season, early-maturing cotton varieties instead. In general,'such varieties are lower yielding than full-season varieties. In the mainly irrigated northerngrowing states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, planted area is estimated down 17 percent ona year-to-year basis due chiefly to a shift from cotton to other crops such as coarse grains.Harvesting continues to progress very well, facilitated by mild, dry weather conditions.However, market arrivals are slow compared to the same period last year. Cotton Corporation ofIndia reports that cumulative cotton arrivals through January 3, 2009 are estimated at 9.98million US bales, down 21 percent compared to 12.7 during the same period last year. Thedecline in arrivals is significantly larger in the major cotton producing states of Gujarat,Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at 202-720-1071.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2008/09 at 16.5 million tons, down 1.5million or 8 percent from last month and down 4.35 million or 21 percent from last year. Area isestimated at 2.50 million hectares, down 0.07 million from last month and down 0.76 millionfrom last year. Yield is forecast at 6.60 tons per hectare, compared to the record high 8.04 tonsper hectare in 2006/07 and the five-year average of 6.96 tons per hectare.Dry conditions and high temperatures have lowered yield and production expectations,particularly in the states of Entre Rios, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. Rain was less than25 percent of normal during December, making this the worst drought in 70 years. Thecontinued dryness and the lateness of the planting window have reduced sown area. As ofDecember 31, only 91 percent of the corn area had been planted.Lower commodity prices and the high cost of production will cut profits this year. Fertilizer useon the corn crop was limited, and the current extreme drought has further discouraged farmersfrom finishing planting all of the originally expected corn area. With half the crop already in thelate vegetative to early silking stages or beyond, the multiple bouts of dryness that have hit cornwill produce mixed yields. Highly variable development will complicate crop management andharvest. (For more information, contact Denise McWilliams at 202-720-0107.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Argentine soybean production for 2008/09 at 49.50 million tons, down 1.0million or 2 percent from last month. Area is estimated at 18.0 million hectares, a 1 percentdecrease from last month’s 18.2 million hectares. Yield is forecast at 2.75 tons per hectare,down 1 percent from last month and below the record high of 2.99 tons per hectare in 2006/07and the 5-year average of 2.70 tons per hectare.Hot, dry weather affected much of Argentina’s agricultural areas during December, with manyareas receiving only 25 percent or less of average precipitation for the month. Temperatureswere generally above 30 degrees Celsius across the soybean growing regions, and temperaturesexceeded 35 degrees in northeast Argentina, parts of Corrientes, the major part of Entre Rios,extreme northern Buenos Aires and throughout Santa Fe. Rapid soil moisture evaporationfurther aggravated the drought situation, which will become critical if significant rains do notarrive by the second half of January. This has been the worst drought in 70 years in the centralfarming belt. Dryness has delayed planting by about one week compared to last year.Continued planting is questionable due to the lateness of the season, high production costs, lowcommodity prices, and severe drought. (For more information, contact Denise McWilliams at202-720-0107.)

(Jan 12, 2009)

The USDA forecasts Paraguay’s soybean production for 2008/09 at 5.60 million tons, down 14percent from last month’s 6.50 million tons. Area is estimated at 2.45 million hectares, down 2percent from last month’s 2.5 million hectares. Yield is forecast at 2.29 tons per hectare, a 12percent decrease from last month’s 2.6 tons per hectare and below the record high 2.9 tons perhectare in 2002/03.Hot, dry weather affected Paraguay’s soybean producing areas during December, with someareas receiving less than 25 percent of average precipitation for the month. High temperaturesfurther depleted soil moisture supplies and reduced production prospects. Dry weather is'stressing the soybean crop as it enters the blooming and pod-setting stages. Planting wascompleted in late December under extremely dry conditions and some fields may have to bereplanted or abandoned.Some soybean cropland in Paraguay may also be lost this year due to land exchange agreementsthat have been enacted in response to recent raids on farms by protesting indigenous groups.Through negotiations, a first agreement was reached between the Coordinating Committee forthe Defense of Sovereignty and Agrarian Reform and a group of Brazilian landowners inParaguay to sell 22,000 hectares back to the Paraguayan state, which will be funded throughrevenues from the Paraguayan-Brazilian Itaipu hydroelectric dam. This land is expected in turnto be distributed to indigenous farmers and retired from soybean production. Production fromthis land is uncertain during the 2008/09 season. (For more information, contact DeniseMcWilliams at 202-720-0107.)

(Dec 15, 2008)

The Middle East suffered a severe region-wide drought last year (2008/09 MY), with substantial crop losses reported from western Turkey and Israel through eastern Iran. In most areas the exceedingly dry weather pattern lasted from planting time in September through harvest in June, resulting in one of the worst agricultural droughts in recent decades. Total regional wheat production declined approximately 7.4 million tons or 19 percent. The only countries to escape significant year-to-year reductions in grain output were Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Saudi Arabia’s wheat crop declined modestly owing to planned reductions in sown area (not drought), whereas Turkey experienced an even more severe drought in 2007/08 and had crop yields actually recover slightly in 2008/09.

(Dec 11, 2008)

The USDA forecasts Argentine sunflowerseed production for 2008/09 at 3.80 million tons, down 0.60 million tons from the October estimate. Area is estimated at 2.20 million hectares, a 12 percent decrease from the previous estimate of 2.50 million hectares. Yield is forecast at 1.73 tons per hectare, compared to the record high 2.11 tons per hectare in 1994/1995 and the fiveyear average of 1.73 tons per hectare. Hot, dry weather affected much of the Argentine sunflower producing areas during November and reduced planted area. Rainfall was insufficient in southern Buenos Aires, Cordoba, and parts of Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Chaco, and other northern sunflower-producing provinces. The dry weather delayed planting: only 24 and 44 percent, respectively, of the intended planted areas of Tandil and Tres Arroyos in southern Buenos Aires had been sown through November, compared to 57 and 54 percent at the same time last year. Price decreases in sunflowerseed and sunflower oil contributed to a decrease in crush from last year’s crop and further discouraged farmers from finishing this year’s late plantings. Frost affected some emerged sunflowers near Gral Viamonte, Junin, Chacabuco and Chivilcoy, and the damaged areas are now expected to be replanted to soybeans. High costs for weed and insect control, fertilizer, and land preparation also shifted late sunflower planting into more cheaplygrown soybeans this year. (For more information, contact Denise McWilliams at 202 720-0107.)

(Dec 11, 2008)

The USDA forecasts Argentine soybean production for 2008/09 at 50.5 million tons, unchanged from last month. Area is estimated at 18.2 million hectares, up 1 percent from last month. Yield is forecast at 2.77 tons per hectare, compared to the record high of 2.99 tons per hectare in 2006/07 and the five-year average of 2.70 tons per hectare. Hot, dry weather affected much of the Argentine agricultural producing areas during November. Recent rainfall brought muchneeded moisture that has energized planting activities for soybeans. Soybeans will be planted in sunflower and corn areas that were severely damaged by drought, frost and hail. Decreased prices for sunflowerseed, sunflower oil and corn led to reduced planted area as the optimum planting windows closed, thus allowing more soybeans to be planted. Some wheat area was also harvested earlier than expected or was grazed due to drought conditions, prompting land preparation and soybean planting as first-crop beans. Lower input costs including less need for fertilizer for soybeans and the ability to shift to earlier soy varieties will allow more first and second crop beans to be planted. (For more information, contact Denise McWilliams at 202 720-0107.)

(Dec 11, 2008)

The USDA estimates Canadian canola production for 2008/09 at a record 12.6 million tons, up 32 percent from last year and up 21 percent from the October forecast. The increase is due chiefly to above-average yields in Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Optimum weather throughout the growing season boosted yields to 1.94 tons per hectare, up 27 percent from a year ago. Farmers harvested 6.5 million hectares of canola in 2008/09 compared to 6.2 million hectares in 2007/08. (For more information, contact Arnella Trent at 202-720-0881.)

(Dec 11, 2008)

Afghanistan suffered a severe drought last year which decimated its 2008/09 winter grain crop and caused an acute food and feed-grain shortage throughout much of the country. Wheat production is estimated by USDA to have fallen 55 percent from the previous year, while barley production is estimated to have declined 67 percent. This major shortfall in grain production was exacerbated by disruptions in regional grain trade (export bans) and increasing conflict in major transport corridors along the Pakistani border.

(Nov 25, 2008)

The crop travel was conducted in Victoria, New South Wales, and southern Queensland (Figure 1). We covered a total of roughly 1300 miles starting from Melbourne in Victoria, through the southern part of the Australian wheat belt to Mildura in north-west Victoria. We continued through Hillston, Wagga Wagga, to Canberra in New South Wales (Figure 2). We also travelled to southern Queensland, from Brisbane to Toowoomba and Darby.

(Nov 25, 2008)

USDA Office of Global Analysis (OGA) of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) performed a mid-season crop assessment and spatial model validation survey in Ethiopia from October 8-17, 2008, with personnel from USAID FEWS-NET project, the United Nation's Word Food Program (WFP), and the European Commission Monitoring of Agriculture with Remote Sensing (MARS) program of the Joint Research Centre (JRC). This was the first known crop assessment tour between personnel from USDA/FAS, FEWS-NET, WFP and MARS.

(Nov 19, 2008)

Current conditions and early prospects for 2009/10 winter grains in Ukraine are reasonably good as planting nears completion. Sown area has surpassed the Ministry of Agriculture's target despite rain-related planting delays in mid-September, and planting is reportedly ahead of last year's pace. Weather and soil-moisture conditions are generally favorable despite recent dryness.