Tropical Storm ELIDA

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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG BURSTING PATTERN NEAR
THE CENTER OF ELIDA WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. 
OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVERNIGHT...
WITH INCREASING OUTFLOW NOTED.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE UNCHANGED...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55
KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO ALLOW ONLY SLOW
INTENSIFICATION...AND THAT GENERAL IDEA IS REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.  SSTS BEGIN TO COOL BELOW 80F AFTER 36 HR...SO
A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.  

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL DATA SUGGEST ELIDA CONTINUES MOVING TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...ABOUT 290/13.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITSELF TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  A WESTWARD TURN APPEARS LIKELY AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AND THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.9N 106.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 111.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N 119.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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