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   You are at NWS Houston/Galveston » "Storm Signals" Newsletter » Vol. 56, Fall 2000

STORM SIGNALS
Fall 2000, Vol. 56



CONTENTS

DuPont Logo
This edition of Storm Signals was printed by E. I. Dupont De Nemours & Company, La Porte, Texas, as a service to the citizens of Southeast Texas and The Upper Texas Coastal area.



Record Heat Grips Southeast Texas For Much of the Summer
sun logo
By Charles Roeseler

The summer of 2000 will be remembered as one of the hottest ever recorded. The summer started out with temperatures averaging near climatological normals despite below normal rainfall values. The heat began building in July and didn't stop until reaching a crescendo in early September. Houston, College Station and Galveston all established new all-time high temperature records in early September.

A strong and persistent upper level ridge of high pressure remained over the southern plains for months. Sinking air associated with this feature would warm and dry as it descended toward the surface. Dry air tends to heat much faster during daylight hours and cool faster during the night. Temperature and rainfall data from College Station (CLL), Houston (IAH), and Galveston (GLS) support this argument. Here is the temperature and rainfall data for the sites mentioned above:

Houston Intercontinental Airport
Avg
High
Normal
High
Avg
Low
Normal
Low
Daily
Avg
Temp
Departure
Rain Rain
Departure
June 90.4°F 90.1°F 72.3°F 70.6°F 81.4°F +1.0°F 3.29" -1.67"
July 97.7°F 92.7°F 72.7°F 72.4°F 85.2°F +2.6°F 0.64" -2.96"
Aug 97.4°F 92.5°F 72.2°F 72.0°F 84.8°F +2.5°F 2.11" -1.38"
Sept 92.1°F 88.4°F 66.6°F 67.9°F 79.4°F +1.2°F 4.34" -0.55"

College Station - Easterwood Field
Avg
High
Normal
High
Avg
Low
Normal
Low
Daily
Avg
Temp
Departure
Rain Rain
Departure
June 90.2°F 90.3°F 72.1°F 71.0°F 81.2°F +0.5°F 2.53" -1.15"
July 99.7°F 93.8°F 72.0°F 73.4°F 85.9°F +2.3°F T -2.29"
Aug 101.3°F 94.8°F 71.7°F 73.2°F 86.5°F +2.5°F 0.22" -2.20"
Sept 95.2°F 88.4°F 66.6°F 68.7°F 80.9°F +2.3°F 1.50" -3.37"

Galveston - Scholes Field
Avg
High
Normal
High
Avg
Low
Normal
Low
Daily
Avg
Temp
Departure
Rain Rain
Departure
June 87.9°F 85.0°F 78.6°F 77.2°F 83.3°F +2.2°F 1.11" -3.33"
July 90.5°F 87.3°F 78.8°F 79.2°F 84.7°F +1.4°F 0.95" -3.01"
Aug 91.5°F 87.7°F 79.3°F 79.2°F 85.4°F +1.9°F 1.26" -3.21"
Sept 87.8°F 84.5°F 73.9°F 75.4°F 80.9°F +0.9°F 6.28" +0.35"

In human terms, the summer of 2000 heat wave was rather costly. Thirty-eight residents across the area lost their lives due to heat stress and other heat related ailments. This is more than tornadoes, hurricanes, high winds, lightning and flooding have caused in Southeast Texas in the last five years combined. Economic costs are still being calculated but there is no doubt these costs will be unusually high.

In terms that can be quantified meteorologically, the summer was HOT!!! The temperature in College Station reached or exceeded 100 degrees 48 times which ties for the fourth most 100 degree days in recorded weather history. Only 1917 (58 days), 1998 (51 days), 1913 (49 days) and 1925 (48 days) had more 100 degree days than 2000. Houston had twenty days this summer in which the temperature climbed to or exceeded 100 degrees which is the third highest total in the last 60 years. Only 1980 (32 days) and 1998 (24 days) had more days reach or exceed 100 degrees. Even Galveston sweltered in the summer heat. Galveston has only reached 100 degrees three times since 1875. The temperature reached 100 degrees three times this summer. In other words, what took Galveston 125 years of weather history to accumulate was equaled in just one summer (in actuality...one week). The last time the 100 degree threshold was breached in Galveston was back in 1939. The temperature had never exceeded the 100 degree barrier in September until this year.

This heatwave reached its peak during a nine day period beginning August 28th and ending September 5th. Numerous high temperature records were established during this period. All three climate stations for Southeast Texas established daily, monthly and all-time high temperature records on the 4th and 5th of September. The all-time high temperature record for College Station is now 112 degrees and was established on September 4th. This breaks the previous record of 110 degrees which occurred on July 11th 1917. Houston also established a new all-time high temperature record on the 4th as the mercury soared to 109 degrees. This breaks the old record of 107 degrees which occurred on August 23rd 1980. Starting on August 30th, the Houston area endured seven consecutive days in which the high temperature exceeded 104 degrees. A heatwave of this magnitude is unprecedented and will likely be chronicled for its economic, climatological and human impact. Galveston recorded its warmest all-time temperature on September 5th. The high temperature soared to 104 degrees which bested its previous all-time record high temperature of 101 degrees (July 16th 1932). The 104 degree high temperature recorded on the 5th broke the previous daily temperature record by ten degrees!! The temperature in Galveston had never reached 100 degrees in September prior to this year.

The historical importance of this heatwave can not be overstated. The areal coverage, duration and breadth of this heat event will make the 2000 heatwave and drought one of epic proportions and historical significance.

This hot summer has contributed to the annual temperature being one of the warmest on record. The average temperature at College Station (through September) has been 73.2 degrees. This is the third warmest Jan-Sep period in recorded weather history. Only 1911 (74.4 degrees) and 1925 (73.5 degrees) were warmer. A similar fate befell Houston as the average temperature was 73.5 degrees which ties for fourth place in recorded history. Only the years of 1911 (74.3 degrees), 1927 (73.7 degrees) and 1954 (73.6 degrees) were warmer. The average temperature in Galveston for the Jan-Sep period was 74.9 degrees which is the warmest average temperature in recorded history breaking the record of 74.5 degrees which was set just last year. In fact, five of the ten warmest years in Galveston have occurred since 1990.

The long range outlook from the Climate Prediction Center offers a glimmer of hope for more tolerable conditions. Temperatures in November are expected to be near normal with temperatures warming to above normal levels for December and January. Looking even further ahead, temperatures are forecast to remain above the 30 year climatological average. Precipitation is forecast to be near normal in November and then increase to above normal levels in December and January. Precipitation should remain above normal into March and then return to near normal levels for the remainder of 2001. In hindsight, the 1999 temperature and precipitation forecast for the summer of 2000 were both predicted to be near normal. In actuality, temperatures were well above normal and rainfall totals were well below normal. Time will act as judge and jury as we await our climatological verdict.




Skywarn 2001
SKYWARN logo
By Gene Hafele

Year 2000 overall was a very quiet severe weather year. On March 10th a tornado was on the ground for 21 miles in Burleson County and was classified as an F-3 tornado. On May 2nd NOAA's P-3 Hurricane Hunter's aircraft was damaged by thunderstorm winds at Galveston Scholes Field. On May 19th a major flash flood event occurred in Liberty with over 19 inches of rain recorded. This heavy rain along with large hail, damaging winds and at least one small tornado did over 10 million dollars worth of damage. The big weather story for year 2000 was the Heat Wave where 38 lives were lost due to excessive heat.

What is in store for 2001? La Nina is gone and no El Nino is on the way. We are looking at a winter and spring that will not be dominated by a climate controlling event such as La Nina or El Nino. What does this mean for our potential for severe weather? With the absence of a climate controlling influence it is believed we could see large changes in our weather patterns over a short period of time. We might experience an outbreak of very cold weather followed by unseasonably warm weather. This pattern could happen several times during the upcoming winter and spring seasons. This large change in temperatures over relatively short periods of time will lead to the potential for more severe weather as these different air masses collide across the United States.

Due to the fact that our last two severe weather seasons have been relatively quiet the trained spotters across southeast Texas have had very few real time events to practice their trained skills. With the likelihood of above average severe weather this season additional training of our Skywarn spotters would be a good investment to be prepared for the upcoming season.

What is Skywarn? Skywarn is a program sponsored by your National Weather Service Office in conjunction with your local Emergency Management Organizations. It is a group of trained volunteers that watch the skies during severe weather and relay reports back to the local Emergency Management Official, the local law enforcement agency, and/or the National Weather Service. These volunteers provide valuable information to their local community and to the National Weather Service which helps improve the warning program, thus possibly saving lives and property in the community.

The Skywarn program helps individuals identify the varying types of thunderstorms and what type of severe weather to expect from each type of thunderstorm. But of more importance, you will learn what valuable information should be passed on to the National Weather Service and/or your Emergency Management Office and also what method to use to get that information relayed. You will learn about the NWS operations and how we disseminate information to your community.

The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service will be conducting Skywarn classes during the months of January, February, and March to help the Skywarn spotters be prepared for the 2001 Spring Severe Weather Season. Training sessions last 2-3 hours and can be scheduled during the day, in the evening or even on Saturday to best meet you or your group's schedule.

If your group or community is interested in sponsoring a Skywarn Program in early 2001, please make your reservations now. Call Gene Hafele at 281-337-5074 x223. Regardless of past history, Mother Nature can always throw a curve. We must be prepared for any severe weather outbreak.




2000 Hurricane Season
hurricane logo
By Josh Lichter

The Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season got off to a slow start with the formation of only two tropical depressions in June. Through the first of August, we still had not seen our first tropical storm. Finally, Alberto formed on the morning of August 4th. Through the end of October, we have had named storms all the way through Nadine. So far, there have been 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 of the 8 hurricanes have reached major hurricane status of category 3 or higher. In an average year, we see 9 named storms and 6 hurricanes, with 2 of the hurricanes reaching category 3 or higher intensity. The following summaries were obtained from the National Hurricane Center's monthly tropical weather summaries. Complete storm information (including all advisories) can be accessed through the National Hurricane Center's storm archive homepage.

JUNE - A tropical storm or hurricane forms in June on an average of once every other year (based on records since 1886). This year, there were two tropical depressions - neither of which reached tropical storm strength. Tropical Depression One formed on the 7th in the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and dissipated on the 8th in the same area. Tropical Depression Two formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on about the 23rd just west of the coast of Africa. It moved westward for a couple of days and dissipated on the 25th in the central tropical Atlantic.

JULY - There was no tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during July. This is somewhat below average in that there is no activity during July about 30 percent of the time. That is...a tropical storm or hurricane forms in July, on average, about seven times every ten years (based on records since 1886).

AUGUST - In an average August, there are three tropical storms of which two reach hurricane status. Activity this month was a little bit above average with two hurricanes (Alberto and Debby) and two tropical storms (Beryl and Chris). In addition, Tropical Depression Four also formed this month.

Alberto became the third longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin and the longest lived cyclone to form in August. It formed in the eastern tropical Atlantic just off the African Coast on the 3rd and strengthened to a tropical storm the next day. Alberto moved westward to west-northwestward for the next several days, becoming a hurricane for the first time late on the 5th. It turned northwestward on the 8th, weakening to a tropical storm the next day. It regained hurricane strength on the 9th and reached its peak intensity of 125 mph on the 12th. During this period, Alberto began a large, week-long clockwise loop between Bermuda and the Azores. During the loop, it again weakened into a tropical storm and then again returned to hurricane status. Alberto finally became extratropical on the 23rd while heading north-northeast about 780 miles south-southwest of Reykjavik, Iceland.

Tropical Depression Four formed about 400 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida on the afternoon of the 8th. The depression was very small and only produced isolated convection near the center. The system headed westward toward the coast of Florida but turned northeastward about 70 miles east of Cape Canaveral. The depression dissipated on the 11th as it began to merge with a frontal trough over the western Atlantic.

Beryl formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on the afternoon of the 13th. Aircraft reconnaissance indicated that Beryl reached tropical storm strength on the morning of the 14th. The circulation envelope of Beryl was very large with multiple centers which preventing intensification. The storm moved westward slowly and made landfall in northeast Mexico around midnight on the 15th. One death was reported in northeast Mexico associated with flooding. Damage estimates are not yet available.

Chris developed as a depression in the western Atlantic about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on the 17th. The depression briefly reached tropical storm status early in the morning on the 18th. However, Chris weakened rapidly as the vertical wind shear increased and it dissipated on the 19th.

Debby formed on the 18th about 1100 miles east of the Windward Islands and strengthened into a tropical storm early the next day. The storm moved west-northwestward and became a hurricane early on the 21st centered about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and reached its peak intensity of 85 mph that day. Debby moved westward toward the northeast Caribbean Sea, but turned back toward the west-northwest and passed over the northernmost Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands early on the 22nd. The eye of the hurricane passed 30 to 40 miles north of the northern coast of Puerto Rico later on the 22nd. While Debby turned back toward the west and approached the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, vertical wind shear increased and the system weakened to a tropical storm. While Debby tracked westward near the northern coast of Hispaniola, the combination of shear and possibly the rugged terrain of that island further weakened the storm. After Debby crossed the Windward Passage and moved just south of the south coast of eastern Cuba on the 24th, it dissipated. There were no direct deaths attributed to Debby. Heavy rainfall caused some damage in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, but estimates are not available at this time.

SEPTEMBER - The tropical cyclone activity in September was considerably above average with seven tropical storms of which five reached hurricane status. Hurricanes Isaac and Keith were major hurricanes. The last time that seven storms formed in September was 1988. The last time that five hurricanes formed in September was 1998. On average, about three or four tropical storms form in September of which two reach hurricane status.

Ernesto formed about 840 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on the 1st and strengthened into a tropical storm on the 2nd. Strong vertical wind shear weakened the storm and Ernesto deteriorated into a tropical wave on the 3rd.

Tropical Depression Nine formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico on the 8th about 95 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. It moved slowly northward but quickly dissipated early on the 9th before making landfall. However, the depression produced heavy rainfall over east Texas and Louisiana as the remnants moved ashore.

Florence developed about 380 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on the 11th. Air Force reconnaissance indicated that it reached tropical storm strength the next day. The storm briefly attained hurricane status on the 12th before weakening to a tropical storm the next day. Florence moved little for three days, then traveled northeastward quickly and regained hurricane status on the 15th. The hurricane threatened Bermuda and brought tropical storm force winds to the island. Florence merged with an extratropical cyclone south of Newfoundland on the 17th.

Gordon was the first U.S. landfalling tropical storm of the season. It formed near the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula on the 14th. It drifted northward into the Gulf of Mexico and developing into a tropical storm the next day. Gordon moved northeastward and intensified steadily, becoming a minimal hurricane with peak winds of 75 mph on the 19th about 300 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida. Vertical wind shear weakened Gordon to tropical storm intensity before it made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with maximum winds of 65 mph on the evening of the 17th. The storm dumped heavy rain in the southeast U.S. as it continued northeastward with a few tornadoes reported across central and south Florida. Gordon began to merge with a cold front over the southeast U.S. and became extratropical on the 18th. 19 deaths were reported in Guatemala due to flooding. Damage estimates are not available at this time.

The tropical depression that spawned Helene formed about 470 miles east of the Leeward Islands on the 15th. The depression weakened into a strong tropical wave the next day before it reached the Caribbean. However, the northeastern Leeward Islands reported heavy rain and gusty winds as the wave moved westward across the Caribbean on the 17th. A tropical depression formed on the 19th about 60 miles northeast of Grand Cayman Island. The weak depression moved northwest and Air Force reconnaissance on the 22nd indicated that a tropical storm had formed. Helene accelerated toward the north and reached a maximum intensity of 65 mph later that day over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the storm weakened before landfall and Helene moved inland near Fort Walton Beach, Florida on the morning of the 23rd with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Flooding was reported across the Florida panhandle and Georgia with 8 to 10 inches of rain recorded in the Tallahassee area. The storm weakened to a depression soon and moved northeast into Georgia while dissipating. There were no direct deaths associated with Helene. Damage figures are not available at this time.

Isaac was the second major hurricane of the season, developing about 225 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands on the 21st. The depression strengthened into a tropical storm the next day as it moved toward the west-northwest. Isaac rapidly became a hurricane on the 23rd and strengthened further into a major hurricane later that evening. The storm remained a powerful hurricane as it began to turn more toward the northwest, reaching a maximum intensity of 140 mph on the 28th. The hurricane recurved out to sea well east of Bermuda and was declared extratropical on October 1st.

Joyce formed about 570 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on the 25th. It became a tropical storm later that day as it moved to the west. Satellite estimates indicated that Joyce became a hurricane on the 27th with a peak intensity of 90 mph. The storm turned west-southwest and weakened to a tropical storm on the 29th. Joyce moved through the southern Windward islands as a minimal tropical storm and entered the southeastern Caribbean Sea on October 1st. Joyce continued to weaken as she interacted with the islands and Venezuela, was downgraded to a tropical depression on the 2nd, and was declared dissipated later in the day.

Keith developed about 60 miles northeast of Cape a Dios, Honduras on the 28th. Aircraft reconnaissance on the 29th indicated that the depression had become a tropical storm as it moved slowly northwest. Keith rapidly intensified during the day on the 30th into a category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds and made landfall in Belize. Torrential rains across Belize and Nicaragua killed a dozen people. Keith weakened as he marched across the Yucatan Peninsula, but strengthened again after emerging back over warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Keith made its final landfall on October 5th on Mexico's Gulf coast near Tampico and was declared dissipated on the 6th after the Mexican mountains tore the system apart.

OCTOBER - Tropical cyclone activity in October was above average. Long term averages for October are one tropical storm and one hurricane forming during the month. This year, we had two tropical storms and one hurricane.

In early October, Leslie developed off the northeast coast of Florida after dumping flooding rains across the southern part of the state. A circulation center began to organize on the 4th and the system was declared a subtropical depression on the 4th. The system gained more tropical characteristics and became a tropical storm on the 5th. Leslie maintained minimal tropical storm strength through her short life as she moved to the northeast to between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda. Strong shear weakened Leslie to a tropical depression on the 6th, and she became extratropical on the 7th. Advisories ended that same day when a cold front absorbed the system.

The system that became Michael began as a large non-tropical area of low pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda around the 14th of October. Thunderstorms began to organize and gale force winds developed around the center of the system on the 15th, but the system remained non-tropical. The National Hurricane Center mentioned that the nearly stationary system could become a tropical storm if it gained tropical characteristics, and the system was upgraded to a tropical storm on the morning of the 17th after gaining the characteristics. When an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reached the system that afternoon, the crew found out that Michael had strengthened into a hurricane. Michael began drifting to the north northeast toward Newfoundland, and eventually intensified into a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph. Luckily, Michael weakened before striking Newfoundland as winds got down to 85 mph. Michael was still able to knock down power lines, disrupt ferry service and damage homes while making landfall late on the 19th. The hurricane quickly became an extratropical system after landfall and will go down as one of the strongest and latest hurricanes to move across the Canadian Maritimes.

Nadine formed in a similar manner as Michael as a non-tropical low pressure system attaining tropical characteristics in the Atlantic Ocean. Nadine first formed as a depression on the 19th about 450 miles southeast of Bermuda. She attained tropical storm status on the 20th while located around 475 miles east of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Nadine continued to move to the northeast at 15 to 20 mph while winds strengthened to 60 mph. Nadine never became a hurricane and was no threat to land before becoming extratropical on the 21st.

Summary Table of
Named storms through October 31st
Name Dates Wind (mph) Deaths U.S.
Damage
Alberto (H) Aug 4 - 23 125 0 -
Beryl (TS) Aug 14 - 15 50 1 -
Chris (TS) Aug 17 - 19 40 0 -
Debby (H) Aug 20 - 24 85 0 -
Ernesto (TS) Sep 1 - 3 40 0 -
Florence (H) Sep 11 - 17 80 2 -
Gordon (H) Sep 15 - 18 75 19 *
Helene (TS) Sep 15 - 22 65 0 *
Isaac (H) Sep 21 - Oct 1 140 0 -
Joyce (H) Sep 25 - Oct 2 90 0 -
Keith (H) Sep 28 - Oct 6 140 17 *
Leslie (TS) Oct 4 - Oct 7 40 0 -
Michael (H) Oct 17 - 19 100 0 -
Nadine (TS) Oct 19 - 22 50 0 -
* indicates data is still being calculated and is subject to change
H = hurricane, TS = tropical storm




Storm Ready logo
Is Your Community or County Storm Ready?
By Gene Hafele

Many laws and regulations help local emergency managers deal with hazardous material spills, search and rescue operations, and medical crises but there are few guidelines dealing with hazardous weather operations.

Recognizing this need, the National Weather Service designed StormReady to help cities, counties, and towns implement procedures to reduce the potential for disastrous, weather-related consequences. Ninety percent of all presidentially declared disasters are weather related. Through the StormReady program, NOAA's National Weather Service gives communities the skills and education needed to survive severe weather - before and during the event. StormReady helps community leaders and emergency managers strengthen their local hazardous weather operations.

StormReady Does Not Mean Storm Proof!
StormReady communities are better prepared to save lives from the onslaught of severe weather through better planning, education and awareness. Communities have fewer fatalities and property damage if they plan before dangerous weather arrives. No community is storm proof, but StormReady can help communities save lives.

How Can My Community Become StormReady?
The entire community - from the mayor and the emergency managers, to business leaders and civic groups - can take the lead in becoming StormReady. The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service forecast office will work with communities to complete an application and review process. To be recognized as StormReady, a community must:
  • Establish a 24-hour warning point and emergency operations center,
  • Have more than one way to receive severe weather warnings and forecasts and to alert the public,
  • Create a system that monitors local weather conditions,
  • Promote the importance of public readiness through community seminars, and
  • Develop a formal hazardous weather plan, which includes training severe weather spotters and holding emergency exercises.
How Can I Learn More About StormReady?
For more information about StormReady, visit the StormReady Website, or contact Gene Hafele, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office at 281-337-5074 x223 or email at gene.hafele@noaa.gov.




airplane logo
Aviation Terminal Weather Forecasts
By Robert Van Hoven

Our National Weather Service Forecast Office routinely issues weather forecasts tailored specifically for designated airports. The forecasts are referred to as terminal or aerodome forecasts. The singular acronym is TAF. These are issued for the following four airports in southeast Texas: Bush Intercontinental, Hobby Airport, Easterwood Field at College Station, and Scholes Field at Galveston. Users of terminal forecasts include commercial airlines, general aviation, civilian and military customers.

A TAF for a certain airport is a concise statement of expected meteorological conditions significant to aviation. The forecast is normally for a 24 hour period and includes surface wind, visibility, weather and clouds (or vertical visibility into a surface based obscuration like fog). Significant changes to the aforementioned elements are included in the forecast.

How important are these forecasts and how do they relate to you? As an aircraft passenger, you are probably most concerned about the safety of your flight. Rest assured that the pilot of the aircraft you are flying on is required to have a thorough weather briefing. Key elements of the briefing include terminal weather forecasts for the destination airport and an alternate (if necessary).

Our aviation forecasters normally issue terminal weather forecasts (TAFS) every 6 hours and may amend a TAF if conditions deteriorate or improve faster that expected. Critical to aviation users are prevailing visibilities, cloud ceilings (base of cloud cover), significant change(s) in wind velocity, and thunderstorms at or near the airport.

As you can see, the terminal weather forecast is quite an important product to the aviation community. Accuracy in the forecast timing of changing elements like cloud ceilings and visibilities facilitates the smooth flow of air traffic through our National Airspace System. Wind shifts resulting from frontal passages or outflow boundaries from thunderstorms may render a runway unusable for a certain period. Knowledge of impending weather changes help Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) managers plan accordingly to alleviate air traffic congestion.

Our aviation terminal forecasts along with other aviation weather information can be found on our homepage via the Aviation Weather Center's homepage.




NWS logo
Expanded Forecasts Now Available from NWS
By Brian Kyle

On September 1st, 2000, NWS Houston/Galveston started producing detailed public and marine forecasts out to 48-60 hours. A number of computer models that meteorologists use to produce forecasts on a daily basis continue showing better accuracy out in time. We now have enough confidence in some of these models to produce fairly accurate expanded forecast products.

The public forecasts are now available out to a full week. This encompasses a 48-60 hour detailed portion of the forecast along with a basic overview out to day 7. Detailed forecasts out to 48 hours are produced for morning issuances and out to 60 hours for afternoon/evening issuance times. This includes forecasts for high/low temperatures, wind direction/speed and chances for precipitation. Previously, these details were produced only for the first 36 hours. The extended portion has been expanded to cover up to day 7. Previously, our forecasts ended on day 5. Here is an example of the public forecast.

The marine forecasts still go out to day 5, however the detailed portion was extended out to 48-60 hours depending on issuance time (same as public forecasts). The detailed portion includes wind direction/speed, sea height, and any significant weather expected. Like the public forecasts, these only used to go out to 36 hours. Here is an example of the marine forecast.

Hopefully, these improvements will allow our users to make any outdoor plans/decisions earlier than they have ever done before. Looking ahead in the next 4 years, look for even more detailed forecasts from the NWS as new and improved computer models become available.




winter logo
Southeast Texas Climate Outlook Winter 2000-2001
By Matt Moreland

The outlook for winter 2000-2001 is for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across southeast Texas. Although temperatures are forecast to be above normal, this winter is expected to be considerably cooler than the last 2 winters, which were both much warmer than normal. Most of the winters during the last decade have been warmer than normal, mainly due to the influence of the El Nino or La Nina phenomenona in the central Pacific Ocean. This winter, the U.S. will be dominated by a neutral pattern, hence the expectation for a cooler winter. The prospects for above normal rainfall this winter season are encouraging, given that southeast Texas remains in a severe drought according to the latest Palmer Drought Index data.

Winters during most of the early and mid 1990s were strongly influenced by the El Nino phenomenon. During El Nino, ocean waters in the central Pacific are warmer than normal, leading to a stronger than normal southern branch of the jet stream. This part of the jet stream controls most of the winter weather over the southern half of the U.S. With this jet energy being stronger than normal, storm systems occur more frequently than in an average winter over the southern states. Winter weather is dominated by more storminess and more cloud cover than normal. Daytime temperatures may average slightly below normal during an El Ninoinfluenced winter, but nighttime temperatures average well above normal leading to above normal temperatures overall. Intrusions of arctic air are less frequent than normal during an El Nino winter thanks to the strength of the southern branch of the jet stream.

The last two winters were influenced by the La Nina phenomenon. During La Nina, ocean waters in the central Pacific are cooler than normal, which leads to a weaker than normal southern branch of the jet stream. With this jet energy being weaker than normal, storm systems occur less frequently than in a normal winter over the southern states, and weather during the winter months is dominated by less cloud cover and less precipitation than normal, leading to warmer than normal temperatures. Temperatures during the November to March period of 1998-1999 and 1999-2000 averaged 4 to 4.5 degrees above normal, with temperatures during January and February of both winters averaging 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Thanks to the abundant sunshine, the winter of 1999-2000 had a record number of days with high temperatures of 70 degrees or higher. Temperatures reached 80 degrees or higher on many occasions.

Precipitation during a La Nina winter usually averages well below normal. Precipitation during the winter of 1998-1999 averaged above normal, mainly due to extremely wet weather in November 1998. Monthly rainfall, however, quickly dropped well below normalby the first 3 months of 1999. The winter of 1999-2000 was much drier than normal, worsening severe drought conditions that have persisted into October 2000.

Below are some statistics regarding weather conditions in southeast Texas over the last 2 winters and their comparison to the 30-year average.

Temperatures November through March for the last two winters at...

Houston Intercontinental Airport
Month 1998-
1999
1999-
2000
30 YEAR
AVERAGE
NOV 64.3 62.2 61.0
DEC 55.1 53.7 53.5
JAN 57.1 56.4 50.4
FEB 57.1 56.4 50.4
MAR 63.7 66.4 60.6
AVG 60.3 60.1 56.0

Galveston Scholes Field
Month 1998-
1999
1999-
2000
30 YEAR
AVERAGE
NOV 67.3 66.4 64.2
DEC 57.9 58.1 56.4
JAN 58.7 58.9 52.7
FEB 63.5 62.6 55.2
MAR 65.2 68.0 61.7
AVG 62.5 62.8 58.0

College Station
Month 1998-
1999
1999-
2000
30 YEAR
AVERAGE
NOV 62.2 61.7 59.8
DEC 51.8 52.4 51.4
JAN 54.2 54.1 48.6
FEB 61.4 60.4 52.4
MAR 61.4 64.5 60.4
AVG 58.2 58.6 54.5


Precipitation November through March for the last two winters at...

Houston Intercontinental Airport
Month 1998-
1999
1999-
2000
30 YEAR
AVERAGE
NOV 10.21 1.53 3.79
DEC 4.05 2.20 3.45
JAN 2.12 1.25 3.29
FEB 0.80 2.32 2.96
MAR 3.44 1.35 2.92
AVG 20.62 8.65 16.41

Galveston Scholes Field
Month 1998-
1999
1999-
2000
30 YEAR
AVERAGE
NOV 2.66 1.59 3.37
DEC 3.69 5.81 3.50
JAN 2.22 1.74 3.26
FEB 1.14 1.71 2.26
MAR 1.85 1.92 2.23
AVG 11.56 12.77 14.62

College Station
Month 1998-
1999
1999-
2000
30 YEAR
AVERAGE
NOV 6.53 1.09 3.37
DEC 4.81 1.54 3.50
JAN 0.95 3.14 2.65
FEB 0.14 0.91 2.62
MAR 4.13 2.57 2.58
AVG 16.56 9.25 14.72





Fire icon
Texas Wildfires 2000
By Richard Hitchens

The dry, hot summer of 2000 left its mark on southeast Texas in many ways. The lack of rain and above normal temperatures severely dried out grasses, trees and other vegetation, making them ripe for burning.

Outdoor burn bans were widespread across southeast Texas this summer. Lightning ignited a number of fires this summer, including one in Burleson County on September 5th that burned down two houses. High winds, low humidity levels and atmospheric instability caused fires to spread rapidly. Human activity could also contribute to wildfire ignition. Because vegetation was so dry, a carelessly tossed cigarette or cinders from burning debris could quickly turn into a large wildfire.

Wildfire activity peaked in late August and early September as temperatures soared to 100 degrees or higher over a large portion of southeast Texas. The airmass was not only hot, but dry. Afternoon relative humidity levels dropped below 20 percent, a threshold that will cause fires to burn more severely and spread more rapidly. Wildfires were especially problematic across parts of Montgomery, Liberty and Chambers Counties. A housing development near New Caney was threatened the first week in September, and evacuations were recommended. With an east to northeast wind flow in place, smoke from these fires eventually worked its way into heavily populated sections of metro Houston. During the morning of September 6th, residents of the city awoke to the smell of smoke. Many of them dialed 911, fearing a nearby fire. So many called, in fact, that the system became overloaded and shut down.

So far this year, around 200,000 acres of land have been affected by wildfires in the state of Texas. The largest fire in southeast Texas, in Chambers County south of Anahuac, burned about 12,000 acres. The height of the flames, at the fire's peak, reached as high as 175 feet.

This year, and in years past, fires have sometimes started in strange ways. A fire this summer near Conroe was started by a hot streetlight that fell off the side of a building and into a nearby grassy area. In 1998, a wildfire in a rural area west of Fort Worth was started by a man throwing a lit cigarette out of his truck. The cigarette landed in the back of his truck, where an old mattress was being hauled. The mattress, unbeknownst to the driver, caught fire. Small pieces of the burning mattress flew from the truck and onto the dry grass along the highway, causing it to begin to burn. Before it was brought under control, the fire had spread to several hundred acres. Because of the mattress being the cause of ignition, the fire was labeled by fire fighting officials as the "Beautyrest Fire".

The National Weather Service issues forecasts specifically tailored for fire managers and fire fighters. The Houston/Galveston office sends out a fire weather forecast twice a day, 365 days a year. It is available on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/HGX/FWFHGX. Wind information, relative humidity forecasts and a precipitation outlook are among the parameters that are forecast and are of high importance to fire management officials.

Fires are sometimes started on purpose by local, federal and state officials for land management activities. This is called a "prescribed burn". Locally, wildlife preserves use fire to keep some species of plants in check that interfere with the natural feeding and breeding habits of animals they are trying to maintain. The endangered Attwater Prairie Chicken needs large stretches of low grass flatland to thrive. Fire provides a quick and inexpensive way to keep unwanted taller grasses, brush and small trees under control. It is also less harmful to the environment than chemicals and returns nutrients to the soil. North winds are favored by fire management officials near the coast because smoke from the fires is carried out over the Gulf of Mexico rather than into populated areas.




Snowman icon
Winter Safety in Southeast Texas

Winter weather, although rare in southeast Texas, does occasionally occur. Although winter weather can occur at anytime during the winter and early spring months, January is the month our area is most likely to observe snow, sleet or freezing rain. The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service would like to review some safety information to help you and your family prepare for the upcoming winter season.
  • Limit travel during periods of winter weather. Elevated roadways and bridges are especially vulnerable to ice and snow accumulations. Recent studies indicate that 70% of winter deaths from ice and snow occur in automobiles.
  • Stock up on groceries, gas, and other necessities before the onset of winter precipitation.
  • Have flash lights and extra batteries on hand in case of possible power outages.
  • Wear protective clothing and dress in layers. Wind will make the air feel much colder.
  • Be alert to the signs of hypothermia: uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, drowsiness, and slurred speech. If these signs occur, immediately seek medical attention.
  • Carry a winter storm survival kit. This kit should include blankets, a first aid kit, extra clothes and a flashlight.
  • If you must travel, allow extra time to reach your destination. Ice or snow-covered roadways are treacherous.
  • Leave plenty of space between you and other vehicles. Stopping distances must be greatly increased with ice or snow-covered roads.
It is very important for you to stay informed about the possibility of winter weather in your area. This can be done by tuning into NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio or your local television station. For more information concerning winter weather in southeast Texas, please contact the Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office. Additional safety information can be found on the world wide web at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/wntrstm.htm




Lightning Myths and Facts

MYTH: The rubber soles of shoes or rubber tires on a car will protect you from being struck by lightning.

FACT: Rubber-soled shoes and rubber tires provide NO protection from lightning. However, the steel frame of a hard-topped vehicle provides increased protection if you are not touching metal. Although you may be injured if lightning strikes your car, you are much safer inside a vehicle than outside.


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