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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EST THU DEC 18 2008
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR JANUARY 2009
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 20.41 INCHES (58 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.08 INCHES (46 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.44 INCHES (28 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 96.99 INCHES (84 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FOR JANUARY 2009.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR HAWAII FOR JANUARY 2009.
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| TEMPERATURE | | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | HILO | B40 | 71.6 | 0.5 | | A40 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 11.0 | | KAHULUI | EC | 71.9 | 0.6 | | A40 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | | HONOLULU | EC | 72.9 | 0.6 | | A40 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 3.5 | | LIHUE | A40 | 71.7 | 0.6 | | A40 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 4.8 |
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR JFM 2009 TO JFM 2010 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CONTINUED IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS - EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES HAVE COOLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN THE WEST OF THE DATE LINE. THE SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES BECAME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE AS BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT THERMOCLINE DEPTH EXPANDED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS EXPANDED AND STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED NEAR INDONESIA AND SUPPRESSED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM DURING NOVEMBER REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS - BUT EXHIBITED SEVERAL ATMOSPHERIC CHARACTERISTICS TYPICAL OF WEAK LA NIÑA CONDITIONS. A MAJORITY OF THE SST FORECASTS INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF 2009. SEVERAL MODELS - INCLUDING THE NOAA CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) - SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF LA NIÑA DURING DECEMBER 2008 - MARCH 2009. OVERALL BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT TRENDS - ENSO-NEUTRAL OR LA NIÑA CONDITIONS ARE EQUALLY LIKELY THROUGH EARLY 2009.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND KAHULUI FROM MAM TO MJJ 2009 - HONOLULU FROM FMA TO MJJ 2009 - AND LIHUE FROM JFM TO MJJ 2009. MODELS ALSO PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM JFM TO AMJ 2009. |
| HILO | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JFM 2009 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | | A40 | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 72.1 | 0.4 | | A40 | 29.5 | 35.9 | 43.1 | | MAM 2009 | A40 | 72.8 | 0.5 | | A40 | 28.3 | 34.9 | 42.6 | | AMJ 2009 | A40 | 73.9 | 0.4 | | A40 | 22.0 | 26.8 | 32.2 | | MJJ 2009 | A40 | 75.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.1 | 23.1 | 27.8 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 75.9 | 0.4 | | EC | 19.5 | 24.2 | 29.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 76.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 22.2 | 27.1 | 32.7 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 76.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.4 | 27.0 | 31.0 | | SON 2009 | EC | 75.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.8 | 31.7 | 38.4 | | OND 2009 | EC | 74.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 26.1 | 33.1 | 41.3 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 72.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 25.5 | 32.9 | 41.7 | | DJF 2009 | EC | 72.0 | 0.4 | | EC | 20.1 | 27.2 | 35.9 | | JFM 2010 | EC | 71.8 | 0.4 | | EC | 23.9 | 30.9 | 39.4 |
| KAHULUI | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JFM 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.5 | | A40 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | | FMA 2009 | EC | 73.2 | 0.5 | | A40 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 8.1 | | MAM 2009 | A40 | 74.4 | 0.6 | | A40 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.8 | | AMJ 2009 | A40 | 75.8 | 0.6 | | A40 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | | MJJ 2009 | A40 | 77.3 | 0.6 | | EC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.5 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 78.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 79.1 | 0.5 | | EC | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 78.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | | SON 2009 | EC | 77.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | | OND 2009 | EC | 75.9 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2009 | EC | 72.5 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.8 | 9.0 | 11.7 | | JFM 2010 | EC | 72.4 | 0.5 | | EC | 6.0 | 8.1 | 10.6 |
| HONOLULU | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JFM 2009 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | A40 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 | | FMA 2009 | A40 | 74.5 | 0.4 | | A40 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | | MAM 2009 | A40 | 76.0 | 0.4 | | A40 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 4.3 | | AMJ 2009 | A40 | 77.7 | 0.4 | | A40 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 | | MJJ 2009 | A40 | 79.3 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 80.7 | 0.4 | | EC | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 81.2 | 0.4 | | EC | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 81.0 | 0.5 | | EC | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.8 | | SON 2009 | EC | 79.6 | 0.5 | | EC | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.9 | | OND 2009 | EC | 77.3 | 0.5 | | EC | 4.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.8 | 0.5 | | EC | 5.7 | 7.8 | 10.4 | | DJF 2009 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 5.0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | | JFM 2010 | EC | 73.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.1 | 5.8 | 8.0 |
| LIHUE | | TEMPERATURE | PRECIPITATION | | FCST | AVE | LIM | | FCST | BLW | MEDIAN | ABV | | JFM 2009 | A40 | 72.4 | 0.4 | | A40 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 | | FMA 2009 | A40 | 73.1 | 0.4 | | A40 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 12.0 | | MAM 2009 | A40 | 74.4 | 0.4 | | A40 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.4 | | AMJ 2009 | A40 | 75.9 | 0.4 | | A40 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | | MJJ 2009 | A40 | 77.5 | 0.4 | | EC | 4.6 | 6.2 | 8.0 | | JJA 2009 | EC | 78.8 | 0.3 | | EC | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.6 | | JAS 2009 | EC | 79.3 | 0.3 | | EC | 5.1 | 6.2 | 7.4 | | ASO 2009 | EC | 79.0 | 0.3 | | EC | 6.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | | SON 2009 | EC | 77.7 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | | OND 2009 | EC | 75.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 10.7 | 13.3 | 16.2 | | NDJ 2009 | EC | 73.6 | 0.3 | | EC | 9.8 | 12.5 | 15.8 | | DJF 2009 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.6 | 11.4 | 14.7 | | JFM 2010 | EC | 72.4 | 0.4 | | EC | 8.0 | 10.8 | 14.1 |
FORECASTER: LUKE HE NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JAN 15, 2009
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