Tropical Storm BORIS

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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008
 
BORIS APPEARS TO FINALLY BE GIVING IN TO THE COLDER WATERS OVER
WHICH IT IS MOVING.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LAGGING BEHIND TO THE SOUTH.  A
QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 0226Z SHOWED THAT MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS WERE
STILL NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT SINCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SINCE THEN.  CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE
COOLER WATERS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND
BORIS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 17.3N 128.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 129.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 17.4N 130.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 17.1N 131.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.7N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 14.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER KNABB
 
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