Tropical Storm BORIS

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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
 
BORIS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION YIELDING NO CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UNCHANGED AT 45
KT.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INCREASE OVER
THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ADDITIONALLY...BORIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS. 
SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BORIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
3-4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
BEFORE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. 
 
BORIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE BUILDS WESTWARD.  SUCH A STRAIGHT FORWARD PATTERN WOULD
NORMALLY RESULT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS. 
HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A NEW CYCLONE COULD
FORM EAST OF BORIS IN 2-3 DAYS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE STEERING.  IN
FACT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL SHOW BORIS OR ITS REMNANTS
LOOPING BACK TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST BEYOND 72 HOURS. 
CONVERSELY...THE UKMET...HWRF...AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN A
WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER OF THESE
TWO SCENARIOS AND MAINTAINS A WESTWARD...ALBEIT SLOW...MOTION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 15.0N 115.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.1N 116.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 15.2N 118.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.3N 119.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.4N 121.4W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 15.5N 124.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 15.5N 127.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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