EMC MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION STATS

The plots of bias and RMS error (RMSE) statistics are labeled in an abbreviated form. STAT refers to the statistic type, which is either SL1L2 or VL1L2---terms referring to a set of means over the indicated region consisting of forecast and corresponding observed values, their squares and products. When the statistic type is VL1L2, the vector bias and RMSE are computed from a set of such means for the components of the wind. PARAM indicates the parameter: T is temperature; RH is relative humidity, VWND is the horizontal vector wind, and Z is geopotential height. FHOUR indicates the forecast hour. V_ANL indicates the observational data source or verifying anlysis. V_ANL=ADPUPA indicates that the data source is the rawinsonde data. V_ANL=ANYSFC means that surface data from a variety of sources was used for the verification. V_RGN indicates the verification region by an NCEP or AWIPS grid number (grid 236 is a subset of grid 212). For surface data, the subset region is given by a three-character name following a slash after the grid number. LEVEL denotes the isobaric level of verification or indicates verification at the "surface" (SFC). The verifying hour and minute are denoted by VHHMM. Note that the verifying hour along with the forecast hour determines the cycle time (model initial time) being verified.

The forecast values are interpolated from the grid whose number is indicated following the slash after the model name in the trace label key above each plot. If multiple grid numbers are indicated, then any one of those grids may have been used. The interpolation is a bilinear interpolation to the latitude and longitude of the observation.

Changes to the EMC Forecast Verification System are described in the FVS change log

Statistics for the last 30 days ending yesterday are displayed as follows:

Tropospheric Statistics vs all raobs over CONUS inside grid #236 and over Alaska/Western Canada inside grid #216

VARIABLE	FIRST GUESS	00-H FCST	06-H FCST	12-H FCST	18-H FCST	24-H FCST	30-H FCST	36-H FCST	42-H FCST	48-H FCST	54-H FCST	60-H FCST	72-H FCST	84-H FCST	Loop
500 mb Height BIAS and RMSE	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z
850 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z
700 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z
700 mb RH BIAS and RMSE	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z
300 mb Temperature BIAS and RMSE	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z
250 mb Wind Speed BIAS and Vector Wind RMSE	VALID 00Z VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z	CONUS VALID 00Z CONUS VALID 12Z ALASKA VALID 00Z ALASKA VALID 12Z

Surface Statistics

Surface Wind Vector BIAS and RMSE

For all models, the forecast 10-m wind is verified directly against the observed values. All available surface observations are used for the verification over the regions shown in the map below. The three-character names of the regions shown on the map appear in the first column of the table of links (*) to the figures. The tables directly follow the map.

REGION	VALID 00Z	VALID 12Z	VALID 00Z (loop)	VALID 12Z (loop)
GMC (Gulf of Mexico Coast)	*	*	*	*
SEC (Southeast Coast)	*	*	*	*
NEC (Northeast Coast)	*	*	*	*
APL (Appalachian Mountains)	*	*	*	*
LMV (Lower Mississippi Valley)	*	*	*	*
MDW (Midwest)	*	*	*	*
SPL (Southern Plains)	*	*	*	*
NPL (Northern Plains)	*	*	*	*
SWD (Southwest Desert)	*	*	*	*
GRB (Great Basin)	*	*	*	*
SMT (Southern Mountains)	*	*	*	*
NMT (Northern Mountains)	*	*	*	*
NWC (Northwest Coast)	*	*	*	*
SWC (Southwest Coast)	*	*	*	*
NAK (Northern Alaska)	*	*	*	*
SAK (Southern Alaska)	*	*	*	*

2-m (Shelter) Temperature BIAS and RMSE

The forecast 2-m temperature is verified directly against the observed values. All available surface observations are used for the verification over the regions shown in the map below. The three-character names of the regions shown on the map appear in the first column of the table of links (*) to the figures.

REGION	VALID 00Z	VALID 12Z	VALID 00Z (loop)	VALID 12Z (loop)
GMC (Gulf of Mexico Coast)	*	*	*	*
SEC (Southeast Coast)	*	*	*	*
NEC (Northeast Coast)	*	*	*	*
APL (Appalachian Mountains)	*	*	*	*
LMV (Lower Mississippi Valley)	*	*	*	*
MDW (Midwest)	*	*	*	*
SPL (Southern Plains)	*	*	*	*
NPL (Northern Plains)	*	*	*	*
SWD (Southwest Desert)	*	*	*	*
GRB (Great Basin)	*	*	*	*
SMT (Southern Mountains)	*	*	*	*
NMT (Northern Mountains)	*	*	*	*
NWC (Northwest Coast)	*	*	*	*
SWC (Southwest Coast)	*	*	*	*
NAK (Northern Alaska)	*	*	*	*
SAK (Southern Alaska)	*	*	*	*

2-m (Shelter) Dew Point Temperature BIAS and RMSE (CONUS: NAM,RUC only at 00,06,12-h, NAM only at 24-84 h); (ALASKA, NAM only)

The forecast 2-m dew point temperature is verified directly against the observed values. All available surface observations are used for the verification over the regions shown in the map below. The three-character names of the regions shown on the map appear in the first column of the table of links (*) to the figures.

REGION	VALID 00Z	VALID 12Z	VALID 00Z (loop)	VALID 12Z (loop)
GMC (Gulf of Mexico Coast)	*	*	*	*
SEC (Southeast Coast)	*	*	*	*
NEC (Northeast Coast)	*	*	*	*
APL (Appalachian Mountains)	*	*	*	*
LMV (Lower Mississippi Valley)	*	*	*	*
MDW (Midwest)	*	*	*	*
SPL (Southern Plains)	*	*	*	*
NPL (Northern Plains)	*	*	*	*
SWD (Southwest Desert)	*	*	*	*
GRB (Great Basin)	*	*	*	*
SMT (Southern Mountains)	*	*	*	*
NMT (Northern Mountains)	*	*	*	*
NWC (Northwest Coast)	*	*	*	*
SWC (Southwest Coast)	*	*	*	*
NAK (Northern Alaska)	*	*	*	*
SAK (Southern Alaska)	*	*	*	*