WORKING HYPOTHESES
- Numerical modelers can learn to incorporate more operational relevance
in their research efforts if they work closely with forecasters in an experimental
forecasting exercise.
- Operational forecasters can make more skillful interpretations of numerical
model output if they work with numerical modelers in an experimental forecasting
exercise.
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
- Research perspective: To identify targets of opportunity for modifying operational and experimental
forecast models through interactions between forecasters and modelers.
- Operational perspective: To evaluate a RUC-based surface objective analysis technique and multiple
hail-size forecasting algorithms.
RESULTS
- Model vertical structures (output soundings) and measures of simulated
thunderstorm intensity were identified as scientific issues of relevance
and mutual interest, motivating further collaborative research that culminated
in formal publications in 2002 and 2003, respectively.
- RUC-based realtime mesoscale environmental analysis techniques were
validated and refined.
- Identified numerous weaknesses in traditional hail-size forecasting
algorithms.
PAYOFF
- RUC-based realtime mesoscale environmental analysis techniques were
subsequently adopted for operational use.
- Identification of weaknesses in hail-size forecasting algorithms
lead to testing of the Brimelow hail model, which was adopted into
operations in Spring 2003.
RELATED PUBLICATIONS
Baldwin, M. E., J. S. Kain, and M. P. Kay, 2002: Properties of the convection
scheme in NCEP's Eta model that affect forecast sounding interpretation. Wea.
Forecasting, 17, 1063-1079.
Jewell, R. E., and J. C. Brimelow, 2004: Evaluation of an Alberta Hail
Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings in the United States. Preprints,
AMS 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA,
Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, P9.5
Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, and S. J. Weiss, 2003: Parameterized updraft mass
flux as a predictor of convective intensity. Wea. Forecasting, 18 ,
106-116.
Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, S. J. Weiss, and M. P. Kay, 2002: The impact of
parameterized shallow convection on pre-deep-convective sounding structures
in the Eta model. Preprints, 15th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction,
San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 135-138.
Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, P. R. Janish, and S. J. Weiss, 2001: Utilizing
the Eta model with two different convective parameterizations to predict convective
initiation and evolution at the SPC. Preprints, Ninth Conference on Mesoscale
Processes, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, 91-95.
2000 SPC/NSSL Spring
Experiment OPERATIONS
SUMMARIES of previous SPC/NSSL Spring Experiments:
2007200520042003200220012000