000
FXUS64 KTSA 201718
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1118 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.AVIATION...
CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MVFR/VFR RANGE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
000
FXUS64 KTSA 201619
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SENT EARLIER TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD
TRENDS AND TO MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK HOWEVER FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE REQUIRED SHOULD THICKER CLOUD COVER PERSIST OVER A
LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 29 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 43 23 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 25 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 44 22 59 21 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 36 21 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 33 22 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 42 25 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 38 25 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
F10 46 26 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 27 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22
000
FXUS64 KTSA 201105
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE
THIS MORNING. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 16-18Z.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200918
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURGE OF COLDER AIR CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO WARM TO NEAR THE MAV PROJECTED HIGHS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
COLD START LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS WINDS DECOUPLE WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WEAK WIND SHIFT
LINE WILL TRY PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT
SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE BY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL IMPACT.
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY
AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS WITH VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS ADVECTING EASTWARD.
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY INTO THE EARLIER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER INCREASES. GFS IS LIKELY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. ECMWF HAS
PERFORMED BETTER WITH COLD SHALLOW AIR-MASSES AND THEREFORE HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...KEEPING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF FA WITH
THE COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF UPPER FEATURES/PRECIP...SO
STAY TUNED AS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE REFINED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 29 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 43 23 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 25 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 44 22 59 21 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 36 21 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 33 22 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 42 25 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 38 25 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
F10 46 26 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 27 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12
000
FXUS64 KTSA 200331
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCUMULUS HAS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WELL INTO TUESDAY AND MAY BUILD BACK TO THE WEST SOME
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE
HIGHLY VARIABLE DEPENDING ON WIND/CLOUDS AT ANY PARTICULAR POINT.
SOME PLACES HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW THE FORECAST MINIMUMS ALREADY
WHILE OTHER PLACES WILL LIKELY NEVER GET AS COLD AS FORECAST. HAVE
ADJUSTED MINIMUMS TONIGHT TO TRY TO BEST MATCH CURRENT AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN FURTHER TO THE
WEST...MODEL TEMPERATURE PROGS DO NOT SUPPORT THE GOING HIGHS IN
MOST PLACES. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUMS TUESDAY MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NEW 00Z NAM MOS AS A RESULT. TUESDAY NIGHT IS ANOTHER ONE OF OUR
INFAMOUS SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TYPE OF NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALWAYS
FALL WELL BELOW THE GFS MOS ON THESE TYPES OF NIGHTS IN THE COLD
SEASON AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS
TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM MOS MINIMUMS HAVE BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL ON
THESE TYPES OF NIGHTS SO HAVE LOWERED MINIMUMS TUESDAY NIGHT TO
THOSE VALUES.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PROGS FROM THE MODELS INDICATE RH`S AROUND 10 PERCENT...ABOUT AS
LOW AS THEY GO THIS FAR EAST. THUS HAVE DROPPED SKY COVER TO NEAR
ZERO THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE ALSO EDGED TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY AS IT WILL CERTAINLY BE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE READINGS WILL NEED TO RAISED
EVEN FURTHER WITH LATER ISSUANCES.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 28 43 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 27 43 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 28 48 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 23 42 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 25 35 18 57 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 23 34 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 42 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 25 37 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
F10 26 46 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 31 50 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KTSA 192114
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WITH TROUGH
OVER THE EAST WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY DURING THE WEEK TO
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT
STAYED WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR SHORT TERM AND
MAINLY ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WEAKENS...A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE APPEARS VERY LIMITED FOR
THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT LOW CHANCES OF RAIN WILL HAVE
ONLY LOW AMOUNTS AS WELL.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ANOTHER LOW POSSIBILITY OF RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 32 50 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 27 47 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 29 50 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 30 47 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 25 39 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 23 37 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 48 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 26 42 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
F10 30 49 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 32 51 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
000
FXUS64 KTSA 191054
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
454 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING... THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 31 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 48 27 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 52 29 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 50 30 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 41 25 38 23 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 38 23 36 24 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 47 28 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 44 26 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
F10 50 30 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 55 32 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 190928
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
...EXTENDING SW INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEHIND FRONT...BEFORE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. LOW
CLOUDS FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO AREA
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AT 850 MB.
IN THE EXTENDED TRENDED TOWARD THE FASTER/COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH NEXT COLD FRONT. ECMWF MAY BE TOO FAST WITH
SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEREFORE BLENDED WITH
THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEAR FAIRLY MINIMAL
WITH FROPA FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTH AND EAST
OF FA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 49 31 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 47 27 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 51 29 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 49 30 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 25 38 23 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 37 23 36 24 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 46 28 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 43 26 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
F10 49 30 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 54 32 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12
000
FXUS64 KTSA 190523
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1123 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY AT KXNA AND KFYV MONDAY MORNING AND
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON AT MOST OTHER TAF SITES FOR A FEW
HOURS MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH AN INCREASE IN
NORTH WINDS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WIND UNLIKELY TO GO CALM OR L&V OVERNIGHT
SO RAISED MIN TEMPS 5 PLUS DEGREES. ALSO RAISED
GRID SURFACE WIND A BIT. GW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES IN THE 05-10Z
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KXNA AND KFYV. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY CONTINUES WITH
OCCASIONAL COLD PUSHES SLIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS MEANS INCREASED FIRE BEHAVIOR THREAT WILL
CONTINUE BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A SPLIT FLOW AND MODELS
STARTING TO COME TOGETHER WITH THIS BUT STILL BIG
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTHS AND TIMING. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR SHORT RANGE AND ECMWF FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS.
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE FLOW WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF POPS UNTIL SATURDAY. SYSTEMS
MOVEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT
BELIEVE IT MAY BE STILL TOO FAST WITH MODELS BREAKING
THE WESTERN RIDGE DOWN TOO QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. BUT NO BIG ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
SWINGS LIKE LAST WEEK THOUGH.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 190346
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
946 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WIND UNLIKELY TO GO CALM OR L&V OVERNIGHT
SO RAISED MIN TEMPS 5 PLUS DEGREES. ALSO RAISED
GRID SURFACE WIND A BIT. GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES IN THE 05-10Z
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KXNA AND KFYV. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY CONTINUES WITH
OCCASIONAL COLD PUSHES SLIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS MEANS INCREASED FIRE BEHAVIOR THREAT WILL
CONTINUE BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A SPLIT FLOW AND MODELS
STARTING TO COME TOGETHER WITH THIS BUT STILL BIG
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTHS AND TIMING. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR SHORT RANGE AND ECMWF FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS.
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE FLOW WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF POPS UNTIL SATURDAY. SYSTEMS
MOVEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT
BELIEVE IT MAY BE STILL TOO FAST WITH MODELS BREAKING
THE WESTERN RIDGE DOWN TOO QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. BUT NO BIG ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
SWINGS LIKE LAST WEEK THOUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 35 52 33 49 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 33 50 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 36 54 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 34 50 29 46 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 30 43 26 41 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 39 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 34 50 30 46 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 31 44 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
F10 36 53 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 39 57 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
000
FXUS64 KTSA 182337
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES IN THE 05-10Z
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT KXNA AND KFYV. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY CONTINUES WITH
OCCASIONAL COLD PUSHES SLIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS MEANS INCREASED FIRE BEHAVIOR THREAT WILL
CONTINUE BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A SPLIT FLOW AND MODELS
STARTING TO COME TOGETHER WITH THIS BUT STILL BIG
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTHS AND TIMING. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR SHORT RANGE AND ECMWF FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS.
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE FLOW WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF POPS UNTIL SATURDAY. SYSTEMS
MOVEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT
BELIEVE IT MAY BE STILL TOO FAST WITH MODELS BREAKING
THE WESTERN RIDGE DOWN TOO QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. BUT NO BIG ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
SWINGS LIKE LAST WEEK THOUGH.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 182110
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE COUNTRY CONTINUES WITH
OCCASIONAL COLD PUSHES SLIDING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. AIR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND EXPECT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS MEANS INCREASED FIRE BEHAVIOR THREAT WILL
CONTINUE BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS OVER THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO A SPLIT FLOW AND MODELS
STARTING TO COME TOGETHER WITH THIS BUT STILL BIG
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTHS AND TIMING. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR SHORT RANGE AND ECMWF FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS.
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE FLOW WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF POPS UNTIL SATURDAY. SYSTEMS
MOVEMENT LOOKS LIKE IT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT
BELIEVE IT MAY BE STILL TOO FAST WITH MODELS BREAKING
THE WESTERN RIDGE DOWN TOO QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. BUT NO BIG ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
SWINGS LIKE LAST WEEK THOUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 34 52 33 49 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 32 50 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 33 54 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 29 50 29 46 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 27 43 26 41 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 27 39 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 32 50 30 46 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 28 44 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
F10 32 53 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 33 57 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....15
000
FXUS64 KTSA 181715
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1115 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN
SPEED AND BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING FROM
THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FYV AND
XNA...WHERE SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU WITH MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...22
000
FXUS64 KTSA 181544
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
944 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY FAIRLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO
ADJUST SKY COVER AND DEW POINTS TO CURRENT TRENDS. 12Z OUN RAOB
AND MESONET OBS SHOWING A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH ADVECTION OF THE DRIER SURFACE
AIR AND MIXING OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS...THIS
DECREASE IN DEW POINTS BRINGS PARTS OF THE AREA CLOSE TO RED FLAG
CRITERIA. WILL UPDATE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
DATA...BUT NO PLANS TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED PRODUCTS ON THEIR WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....15
000
FXUS64 KTSA 181051
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
451 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180944
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
344 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MILD/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE DANGER THREAT...
HOWEVER RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK...A SERIES OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR-MASSES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. NEXT COOL
FRONT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING/
STRONGER SHOT ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS LIMITED. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS ECMWF HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 58 35 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 57 33 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 60 34 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 59 32 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 52 28 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 48 28 39 23 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 56 33 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 53 29 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
F10 58 34 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 63 38 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....12
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180514
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATER TOMORROW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
000
FXUS64 KTSA 180256
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
856 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES PROBLEMATIC OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKY
AND VERY DRY AIR...OFFSET BY A LIGHT WESTERLY
WIND AT SOME PLACES AND NOT OTHERS. 02Z KTUL
TEMP 47 WITH A 5 KNOT WIND...KRVS CALM AND 38.
TRIED TO HIT THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD & APPLIED
COOL CORRECTION TO NORMAL COLD SPOTS. OVERALL
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST
ON TRACK...NO CHANGES. GW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS 25 TO 35KT LAYER OF WINDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WIND SHIFT LINE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM. COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER NOT
THE FRIGID AIR THAT WE SAW A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONCERN ON SUNDAY. EVEN WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...THE AIR WILL BE DRIER
SO AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL KEEP THE SPREAD INDEX VALUES
ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY. FINE FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND
THE DRYING MODERATE WIND ALONG WITH AMPLE SUN WOULD PROMOTE
EASY IGNITION AND QUICK SPREADING.
HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF FOR EARLY PERIODS AND
ECMWF FOR BEYOND DAY THREE. HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSFORM
INTO A SPLIT FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT BUT A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SO ONLY
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 58 35 49 27 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 60 33 50 24 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 62 32 52 26 / 0 0 10 0
BVO 58 28 49 24 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 54 27 43 23 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 53 30 41 23 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 56 33 49 25 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 53 29 44 24 / 0 0 10 0
F10 59 34 51 26 / 0 0 10 0
HHW 63 35 55 30 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
000
FXUS64 KTSA 172313
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER TAPS 25 TO 35KT LAYER OF WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WIND SHIFT LINE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM. COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER NOT
THE FRIGID AIR THAT WE SAW A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONCERN ON SUNDAY. EVEN WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...THE AIR WILL BE DRIER
SO AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL KEEP THE SPREAD INDEX VALUES
ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY. FINE FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND
THE DRYING MODERATE WIND ALONG WITH AMPLE SUN WOULD PROMOTE
EASY IGNITION AND QUICK SPREADING.
HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF FOR EARLY PERIODS AND
ECMWF FOR BEYOND DAY THREE. HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSFORM
INTO A SPLIT FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT BUT A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SO ONLY
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS.
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
000
FXUS64 KTSA 172100
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WIND SHIFT LINE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM. COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER NOT
THE FRIGID AIR THAT WE SAW A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONCERN ON SUNDAY. EVEN WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...THE AIR WILL BE DRIER
SO AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL KEEP THE SPREAD INDEX VALUES
ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY. FINE FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND
THE DRYING MODERATE WIND ALONG WITH AMPLE SUN WOULD PROMOTE
EASY IGNITION AND QUICK SPREADING.
HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF NAM/ECMWF FOR EARLY PERIODS AND
ECMWF FOR BEYOND DAY THREE. HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSFORM
INTO A SPLIT FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT BUT A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SO ONLY
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT
TEMPERATURES UNLIKELY TO ALLOW ANY ACCUMULATION. BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHERN MOST SECTIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
AVIATION...
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST AND FINALLY THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL
DROP OFF TONIGHT AND BACK TO THE WEST AGAIN...BEFORE INCREASING TO
10 TO 12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FSM...WHERE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY.
ECMWF BASIC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 30 49 27 43 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 30 50 24 46 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 29 52 26 47 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 25 49 24 42 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 24 43 23 37 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 27 41 23 34 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 29 49 25 44 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 26 44 24 38 / 0 10 0 0
F10 30 51 26 47 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 33 55 30 48 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....15
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