000
FXUS64 KSHV 201708
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE TODAY AS NORTH WINDS ACROSS AREA AS
60KT NNW FLOW AT 700 MB MIXES DOWNWARD...WITH LOSS OF MORNING
INVERSION. MIXING EFFECT DUE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS...AND SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH COOLER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM...WILL LIMIT WARMING. ALSO...
STRATOCU DECKS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL
SINK INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH LA...IF NOT NE TX. FOR THESE REASONS...
SHOULD ONLY SEE ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES OF ADDIONAL WARMING. LOWERED
HIGHS MORESO IN EXTREME NORTH SECTIONS. TWEAKED SKY CONDIONS AND
LATE AFTN WIND SPEEDS...AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE AREA...SPREADING VFR CIGS OF 4 TO 5 KFT WITH SOME MVFR ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CLOUDS LOOK TO BREAK UP A BIT MORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BROKEN CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO PERSIST TIL SUNDOWN. THEN...EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING
BY 21/00Z WITH SKC OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF 3 TO 5 STATUTE MILES AROUND 21/12Z OVER THE
EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA AND TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF WESTERN LOUISIANA.
SFC WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY WITH NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 20/14Z TO 20/22Z.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT AND VAR AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER AREA. EXPECT S/SW
RETURN FLOW DURING WED P.M. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 49 30 61 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 48 28 57 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 44 24 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 47 29 58 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 24 59 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 51 30 64 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 50 29 64 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 55 30 66 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 200954
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA. WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...EXPECTING SURFACE HEATING
TO GENERATE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS AS THIS DRY AIR MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION. ACCORDINGLY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT 8 AM CST THROUGH 4 PM CST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
ALONG WITH WINDS...ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 5000 FOOT
CEILING MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECTING
THIS DECK TO BREAK UP BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS MAY SET
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MONROE AND EL DORADO.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING AREAWIDE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO RETURN
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS...ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...THE FIRST OF A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE FOCUSED EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...BEING ON THE TAIL END OF THE
SYSTEM...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
AFTER THIS AS THE GFS...AS WELL AS OTHER LONG RANGE
MODELS...BLANKET THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS WITH CONVECTIVE RAIN
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER..THERE IS STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT
A VIGOROUS HIGH WILL CLEAR OUT ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
SOUTH TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL BE PROVIDING MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. INITIAL CEILINGS AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT WITH BRIEF
APPEARANCE OF MVFR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KTXK AND KELD
TERMINALS DURING PERIOD FROM 20/13Z TO 20/16Z. CLOUDS LOOK TO
BREAK UP DURING THE DAY WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BROKEN ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING BY 21/00Z WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NEAR 21/12Z OF 3 TO 5
STATUTE MILES OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA AND BORDERING TOLEDO
BEND LAKE REGION OF WESTERN LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 20/14Z
TO 20/22Z. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 53 30 61 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 48 28 57 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 49 24 61 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 29 58 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 24 59 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 54 30 64 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 53 29 64 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 57 30 66 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
05/06
000
FXUS64 KSHV 200348
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
948 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
S ACROSS IA AND MO...WHICH IS DRIVING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT S
INTO NE OK AND NRN AR. 11-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATING
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONTAL BNDRY CONTINUING TO
SURGE SSE ACROSS ERN OK/NW AR THIS EVENING...WITH THE SHORT TERM
PROGS SPILLING THIS POST FRONTAL CU FIELD S INTO SE OK/SW AR
OVERNIGHT. CU FIELD MAY SCATTER OUT SOME LATE...BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. CU FIELD MAY ALSO FILL IN ACROSS N LA AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...BEFORE ERODING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS DEPARTS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
WHILE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING...THEY
MAY BEGIN TO PICK UP BEFORE DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND FRONT. THUS...COLD
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A RESULT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH AREAS OF SW AR/NCNTRL LA NOT LIKELY RISING OUT OF
THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH CU FIELD. BUT WILL ALLOW THE MID
SHIFT TO ADJUST THESE TEMPS DOWNWARD WITH THE NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FORECAST MINS BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATE.
DID MAKE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS THOUGH GIVEN 3Z TRENDS.
ZONE UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER
SOME 850MB MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING THIS MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NW AR. A CONTINUOUS PATTERN SHOULD HAVE THESE CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. FROM 12Z TO 15Z
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE OBSERVED AT TXK AND ELD...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AROUND
15Z AT MOST AREA TERMINALS. /11/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 35 54 30 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 31 50 28 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 27 49 26 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 34 52 32 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 29 47 26 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 36 54 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 33 54 32 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 36 57 32 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/11
000
FXUS64 KSHV 192030
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY...BREEZY AFTERNOON ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT/S COLD
FRONT...W/HIGHS TOPPING OUT AOA NORMAL. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST GOOD DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET...BUT BY ISSUANCE TIME...WINDS
SHOULD BE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...WE/LL NOT
EXTEND IT. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER ID...RESULTING IN NEAR-MERIDIONAL FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE FOUR-STATE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. FOR THE ARKLATEX...THIS MEANS DRY
CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS...TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...RETURN FLOW GINS UP IN RESPONSE TO
LEESIDE TROUGHING OVER THE FRONT RANGE...MOISTENING UP THE PBL
THURSDAY...W/PWATS ON GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASING TO OVER AN
INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME...NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING TEXAS ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN WELL BEFORE THIS FEATURE ARRIVES...BUT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SHRA
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. TROUGH IS A LITTLE MORE SHEARED ON THE GFS
THAN 24 HRS AGO...AND ALMOST NONEXISTENT ON THE ECMWF BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE FOUR-STATE AREA. ALSO...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED IN THE ECMWF. THUS...ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES THRU. SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW RESUMES AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS
DIGGING SE FROM BC...W/ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHRA AGAIN...AND AGAIN MONDAY AS A SECOND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FOR TEMPS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TEMP
PROGS CORRELATE WELL W/GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT CU DECK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY ELD/MLU
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS IF ANY WOULD BE BRIEF NEAR 4-5K.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING WITH A STEADY
4-8KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHORT TERM PROGS ARE INDICATING THAT
MOISTURE IN THE 4-5K LAYER WILL RESULT IN VFR CEILINGS APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THUS
HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY AROUND 4K BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AT TXK/ELD
WITH THESE CEILINGS GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SHV/MLU
TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN BEYOND
15Z TUESDAY. /13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 34 54 30 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 31 50 28 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 27 49 26 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 34 52 32 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 31 47 26 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 38 54 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 34 54 32 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 36 57 32 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
13/44
000
FXUS64 KSHV 190950
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
CURRENT UPSTREAM WIND OBSERVATIONS WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
REGION WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DIMINISHMENT.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND FREEZING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE GFS SEEMS TO WANT
TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS MORE AGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT
THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND HAS SHOWN MUCH
MORE STABILITY IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT
THERE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AS A RESULT. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL
RANGE FROM 8 KFT TO 13 KFT FOR TODAY AND THEN MAY SEE CEILINGS
AROUND 5 KFT AFTER 20/06Z TO 20/12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY WILL PRODUCE MAINLY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 20 TO 25
KNOTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TODAY NEAR 19/22 TO 19/23Z. WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE 4 TO 8 KNOTS...THEN PICK UP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AFTER 20/14Z TO NEAR THE SAME 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO NEAR 25 TO 28 KNOTS. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 58 34 53 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 55 30 49 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 52 27 48 22 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 55 33 49 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 55 27 48 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 60 34 55 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 60 33 53 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 63 35 57 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
05/06
000
FXUS64 KSHV 190510 CCA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
941 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FCST TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS AREA...WITH LITTLE
CHANGES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 MPH...
WILL MAINTAIN FROM DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONG NW FLOW AT MID LVLS.
IN FACT...WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK.
DESPITE EXTREMELY DRY AIR ON 0Z SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY ALSO DRIFT SOUTHWARD IN NW FLOW.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT
DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AREAWIDE./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. /11/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 40 59 35 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 39 57 34 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 30 53 31 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 37 55 33 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 37 53 32 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 41 61 36 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 39 60 36 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 42 63 36 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 190341
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
941 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FCST TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS. DEWPOINTS FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS AREA...WITH LITTLE
CHANGES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 MPH...
WILL MAINTAIN FROM DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONG NW FLOW AT MID LVLS.
IN FACT...WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK.
DESPITE EXTREMELY DRY AIR ON 0Z SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY ALSO DRIFT SOUTHWARD IN NW FLOW.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT
DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AREAWIDE./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY IN A VERY DRY MODIFIED
POLAR AIRMASS. VIII.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 40 59 35 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 39 57 34 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 30 53 31 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 37 55 33 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 37 53 32 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 41 61 36 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 39 60 36 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 42 63 36 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 182030
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
12Z KSHV RAOB SHOWS A VERY DRY AND SCOURED AMS IN THE WAKE OF LAST
NIGHT/S COLD FRONT...W/A SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR DUE
OVERNIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TO THE WEST...A
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS BUILDING...AND WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY
FORECAST THRU MIDWEEK...AND ALLOW A GRADUAL WARMUP TO THE UPPER 60S
BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE MEANDERS EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...RETURN FLOW RESUMES AS SFC TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL BEGIN FLATTENING THE
RIDGE...LEADING TO SW FLOW ALOFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO TEXAS.
CLOSER TO HOME...ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 290K SFC WILL
COMMENCE...W/THE GFS MOISTENING UP THE PBL SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...AND CARRYING ON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THRU THE FOUR-STATE AREA AND
DROPS A COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION. PATTERN THEN STAYS WET INTO THE
WEEKEND UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. SUNDAY
MORNING BEARS WATCHING FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES...W/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SITTING ON THE FENCE FOR -FZRA. ECMWF SOUNDINGS HAVE THE
TEMPS...BUT NOT THE MOISTURE.
FOR TEMPS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TEMP PROGS LINE UP REASONABLY WELL
W/GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY IN A VERY DRY MODIFIED
POLAR AIRMASS. VIII.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 40 59 35 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 39 57 34 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 30 53 31 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 37 55 33 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 37 53 32 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 41 61 36 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 39 60 36 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 42 63 36 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
08/44
000
FXUS64 KSHV 181518
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
918 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FA TO THE SE...W/12Z
KSHV RAOB SHOWING A VERY DRY AMS IN ITS WAKE. ABUNDANT INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW A QUICK RECOVERY ON TEMPS...AND WE/LL BUMP
UP THE GRIDS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SUNDAY MORNING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO SCOUR SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP E TX AND NE LA
AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. VIII.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 68 35 61 35 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 66 35 58 33 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 63 30 57 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 64 36 58 35 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 63 32 53 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 68 38 61 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 69 35 61 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 73 38 65 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
08/44
000
FXUS64 KSHV 180950
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
350 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG A LINE FROM MONROE TO LUFKIN CONTINUING
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING BRINGING CLEAR SKIES BEHIND IT.
FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS TODAY...DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH.
ASIDE FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGING SOME CLOUDS TO THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S FARTHER SOUTH.
THE FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY LATER IN THE WEEK REGARDING A FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONT. THE
GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DRIES EVERYTHING
OUT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH QPF VALUES AS HIGH
AS A THIRD OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...I`VE CHOSEN TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN BOTH SOLUTIONS AND
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF LOWER QPF TOTALS.
&&
.AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS/CEILINGS STRETCHED
FROM NEAR KLFK TO KMLU WITH HEIGHTS NEAR 35 HND TO 45 HND FEET AND
STEADILY ERODING. THE COLD FRONT ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR
STATE REGION WAS ALSO LOCATED NEAR THIS LINE FROM KLFK TO KMLU.
EXPECT VFR WITH TAF ISSUANCE AT 18/12Z WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. BY 18/15Z THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18/17Z TO 18/21Z...THEN FALLING
OFF TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
AGAIN BY 19/15Z MONDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH 10 TO 16 KNOTS AND
HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO MID DAY. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 63 35 61 35 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 61 35 58 33 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEQ 58 30 57 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 59 36 58 35 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 58 32 53 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 65 38 61 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 65 35 61 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 67 38 65 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/06
000
FXUS64 KSHV 180327
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR FT SMITH AR TO
DALLAS TX. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT DEW POINTS DROP
OFF QUITE A BIT INTO THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA...KNOCKING AT THE DOOR
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WITH
FROPA...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. FORECASTED MINS ARE NEAR
GUIDANCE...SO WILL LET TEMPS RIDE THE CURRENT TREND. NO UPDATE
NEEDED THIS EVENING.
ELEVEN
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW VFR CIG PREDOMINATE IN ADVANCE OF A DRY FRONT JUST THRU A FWD-FSM
LINE...NEARING SE OK. BRIEF MVFR CIGS PSBL. POSTFRONTAL SKIES SKC. SW
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT BECMG NORTH 10-20 KTS SUNDAY./VII/
&&
.PREVIOUS POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 43 65 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 43 62 37 58 36 / 20 0 0 0 0
DEQ 33 61 29 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 37 62 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 38 61 34 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 42 68 42 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 41 68 40 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 46 69 40 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/07
000
FXUS64 KSHV 172030
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
230 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A STEP OUTSIDE SHOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN SLOW
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW BINOVC WERE
NOTED...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO AOA NORMAL...AND AIDED BY WAA IN
SW SFC FLOW. MEANWHILE...JUST TO THE NW...A WEAK FRONT WAS MOVING
SE THRU OK...AND WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD
USHER IN SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER N CENTRAL LA...BEFORE
MOVING SE SUNDAY MORNING. FRONT LOOKS WEAK...AND SHOULDN/T HAVE
MUCH EFFECT ON SUNDAY/S TEMPS...W/EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...DRY...NW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS THE FRONT AS
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK...ALLOWING TEMPS EACH DAY
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE EXTENDED. RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF THE
PAC NW...W/AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DUE INTO SE OK BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
FRIDAY. FRIDAY ALSO MARKS THE DAY WHEN KSHV BEGINS TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE PIT FOR THE WINTER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST AS CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...SOME MVFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA
WITH DRY NW FLOW. VIII.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 43 65 37 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
MLU 43 62 37 58 36 / 20 0 0 0 0
DEQ 33 61 29 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 37 62 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ELD 38 61 34 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
TYR 42 68 42 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
GGG 41 68 40 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
LFK 46 69 40 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
08/44
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