000
FXUS64 KOHX 200936
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
336 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...A COLD AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ON TAP WITH A FEW
FLURRIES EXPECTED. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON TO THE EAST BY WED AS
THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
SOUTH FLOW ALSO RETURNS ON WED AS WE BEGIN TO WARM THINGS UP. NEAR
40 ON WED AND 50S ON THU AND FRI.
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRI WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING ACCORDINGLY. THINK PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY LIQUID BUT MAY MIX
WITH SNOW ON SAT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE DAY. FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON SAT NGT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS ON SUN.
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AT TRACKING THIS LOW FURTHER NORTH
AND FASTER ON MON. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT CONFINED TO THE TX GULF
COAST ON MON AND THEN MOVES THE LOW NEWD ON TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 31 20 40 28 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 31 19 41 26 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 26 15 34 24 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 33 20 41 27 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 34 20 41 25 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 32 20 41 27 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 200209
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
810 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE MID STATE HAVE BEEN SNOW FREE FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ON RADAR HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALOFT...BOTH OVER THE
PLATEAU AND WESTERN TN. GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS IS MID
LEVEL OVER WESTERN TN...THOSE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES HAVE
LITTLE CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. ACROSS THE PLATEAU...DEW
POINT SPREADS HAVE RISEN CONSIDERABLY...SO THAT ACTIVITY MAY HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND AS WELL.
BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL.
BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THIS IS THE AREA THAT COULD PRODUCE THE SNOW
FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT. IT IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH WHEREBY
THE AXIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MID STATE AROUND 09-12Z.
FOR THE FCST...THE ATM IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS REALLY DRY NOW SO I
WILL ONLY INCLUDE SNOW FLURRIES FOR WEST OF THE PLATEAU FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE PLATEAU...WILL KEEP THE 20-30 POPS IN FOR
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH AND I WILL WORD THE PRECIP AS A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
OTW...CONSIDERING LOWERING TEMPS 1 CAT FOR SOME OF THE AREA. HEIGHT
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO GET EVEN COLDER FROM 06Z TO
12Z.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KOHX 192033
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
232 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...(THRU WED NITE)
CURRENT...SW- ABOUT TO EXIT SE SECTIONS. SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN
PLACE N AND W SECTIONS...BUT SEE CLOUDS STREAMING BACK IN FROM
MO...PROBABLY HERE BY 00Z. TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING ALL DAY...AND
NOW IN 25 TO 30 DEG RANGE.
ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TONITE BUT WILL NOT BE CLOSE ENUF TO CWA
TO WARRANT MORE THAN 20-30 POPS...WITH HIEST POPS NW. FLURRIES TUE
EXCEPT CHANCE MENTIONED E WITH VORT MAX DROPPING S ON BACK SIDE OF
H5 TROF.
BY WED H5 HEIGHTS WILL BE ON RISE AND WITH SW SURFACE FLOW A WARM-UP
WILL COMMENCE.
.LONG TERM...
NEXT FRONT ON FRI LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CKV AND BNA BY 00Z SAT.
GFS NOW IN LINE PUSHING FRONT THRU INSTEAD OF HANGING IT UP...WITH
STRONGER HI PRES CNTR DIVING SE FROM SASKATCHEWAN. DRY AND COLD
FOR THE WEEKEND. WAVE FROM TX MOVES TOWARD NE AR BY 00Z TUE...AND
RW- MENTIONED FOR MON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 23 30 20 41 / 20 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 22 30 19 41 / 30 10 0 0
CROSSVILLE 19 25 15 36 / 20 20 0 0
COLUMBIA 24 31 20 42 / 20 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 25 33 20 42 / 20 10 0 0
WAVERLY 22 30 20 42 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/MAG
000
FXUS64 KOHX 190915
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH TEMPS NOT
GETTING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT
OF SNOW. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOCAL WRF DOES
SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A
BIT MORE OVER SRN IL/SW KY LATE TONIGHT MOVING SEWD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
ANY POSSIBILITY OF SNOW TAPER OFF TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ON
TO THE EAST AND THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVES EWD ALONG
THE GULF COAST. WINDS TURN TO THE SW ON WED AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. TROUGH LOSES MUCH OF ITS DEFINITION
WED NGT WITH SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI.
THEN...AS THEY SAY...THE PLOT THICKENS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS DIVERGE A BIT FOR DAYS 5-7. THE GFS PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON A
LOW OVER THE LOWER PLAINS WHILE THE EUROPEAN SIMPLY FORMS A SFC
TROUGH AND PUSHES THE SFC RIDGE FURTHER SEWD ACROSS THE MID MISS VALLEY
THAN THE GFS DOES. THUS THE EUROPEAN HAS COLDER TEMPS OVER THE
AREA FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 36 23 31 21 / 30 20 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 22 31 20 / 20 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 33 19 26 15 / 50 20 20 0
COLUMBIA 37 24 32 21 / 20 20 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 38 25 34 21 / 20 20 10 0
WAVERLY 36 22 31 21 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 190120
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
721 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NOT SEEING ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS OF YET ACROSS THE MID STATE.
THE PAH AND LMK RADARS HOWEVER...ARE SHOWING SOME PATCHY LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACROSS KY AND SOUTHERN IL.
OVERNIGHT...STILL EXPECTING AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO BRING A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WILL REWORD THE FORECAST HOWEVER...TO
INDICATE THAT THE CHANCE OF SHOW SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
OTW...00Z SOUNDINGS AND 00Z SFC TEMPS LEANED MORE TOWARD RAIN
SHOWERS. BUT THE 06Z PROGS CLEARLY INDICATED THAT THE THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIP TYPE.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL ADJUST PRECIP TIMING AND CHANGE SCATTERED POPS
TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN OR SLIGHTLY LOWER
THE CURRENT POPS.
AS FOR TEMPS...WINDS AND ACCUM POTENTIAL...THE CURRENT FCST STILL
LOOKS ACCEPTABLE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KOHX 182039
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
239 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...(THRU TUE NITE)
CURRENT...PARTLY TO AT TIMES CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING UP INTO
THE 45 TO 50 DEG RANGE FOR MOST PART. LITE PRECIP MOVING SE OVER
KY HAS NOT MOVED INTO TN YET BUT COULD CLIP NE CORNER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
CWA WILL BE AFFECTED BY 2 CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS TONITE AND MON NITE
AS DEEP H5 TROF CARVES OUT OVER ERN CONUS AND S/WVS MOVE SE ON
BACK SIDE. N AND E SECTIONS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW AND STRONGER
OF 2 TONITE...WITH POSSIBLE 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATION NE
TONITE AND MON MORNING. THIS IS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BNA
AREA COULD GET DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH.
FLURRIES POSSIBLE TUE AS COLD PATTERN CONTINUES. SW FLOW DEVELOPS
LATE TUE NITE.
.LONG TERM...
A WARM-UP BEGINS WED AS H5 HEIGHTS ON THE RISE. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM FRI POSES A PROBLEM...WITH EURO MODEL CONTINUING TO PUSH
FRONT THRU WHIL GFS HANGS IT UP NEAR TN BORDER. WENT WITH HPC AND
EURO FOR NOW...WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND FRONT INTO WEEKEND.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/MAG
000
FXUS64 KOHX 181641
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1045 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS AND REMOVE POPS W AND S.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MAG
000
FXUS64 KOHX 181002
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
402 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WITH A BIT OF
PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. A CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE MIXED RAIN-SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE A TEMPORARY CLEARING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST... BUT
FURTHER NORTHWEST SGFNT CLOUD COVER OVER MO/IL IS PUSHING SEWD
TOWARD THE MIDSTATE. THERE MAY BE SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS MORNING
BUT THINK THIS WILL MOSTLY DISAPPEAR BY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE WENT
A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPS.
A CHANCE OF PRECIP CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES DROP INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN US.
THE COLDER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS AS SNOW. ONLY
PROBLEM IS THAT THE VORT CENTER THAT SWEEPS BY MON NGT COMES
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MIDSTATE...AND THAT COULD CAUSE SNOW AMOUNTS
TO VARY SGFNTLY.
THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TAKES HOLD ON TUE NGT THROUGH THU WITH
LITTLE OR NO SGFNT WX. WITH DECENT SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE ABOVE NORMAL AREA FOR WED-FRI.
THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN SEEM TO STILL DISAGREE ON THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A DISTINCT AND STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE MOVE EWD
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WAVE FORMS A FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW THAT
MOVES NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES ON THU
AND FRI. THE EUORPEAN HAS NO SUCH SFC LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 40 28 33 21 / 30 30 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 40 25 31 21 / 20 30 0 20
CROSSVILLE 35 23 28 16 / 40 40 20 30
COLUMBIA 42 29 35 23 / 30 20 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 44 30 36 25 / 20 20 0 20
WAVERLY 41 27 33 22 / 20 20 0 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KOHX 180341
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
941 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING. WILL PUT OUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN
THE COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES. AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE BUT ICE ACCUMULATION OF NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA WILL RISE BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH
12Z. COLDER AIR OFF OF THE SFC MAY ARRIVE LATE AS WELL...SO A
CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.
&&
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KOHX 180253
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUM HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN COOKEVILLE.
WILL UPDATE THE PLATEAU ZONES AND MENTION THE FREEZING DRIZZLE. NO
NEED FOR AN ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY.
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KOHX 180200
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
800 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RIGHT NOW...NO PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID STATE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE MID STATE.
NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN IL THROUGH AR. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPING LIGHT SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF THIS BOUNDARY. NO PRECIP YET BUT WILL ELECT TO CONTINUE WITH THE
30 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD.
THERMAL VERTICAL PROFILES SUGGEST A LT RAIN AND LT SNOW MIXTURE. BY
12Z HOWEVER...850H TEMPS REACH INTO THE -4 TO -6C RANGE. THAT WOULD
THEN SUPPORT MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.
EARLIER MODELS WERE ALL FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP BY
12Z...BUT NO DEVELOPMENT YET. HOWEVER...SFC RH VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE MID STATE AND AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS
LATER TONIGHT...THE ONSET OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP MAY BEGIN.
HOWEVER...LATEST 00Z DATA IS COMING IN LINE IN TERMS OF A LESSER
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL EMPHASIZE "LATE" IN TERMS OF THE POP CHANCES.
WILL REDUCE POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS GIVEN THE
00Z DATA AND THE LACK OF PRECIP UPSTREAM. WILL ALSO MODIFY THE
WORDING FOR TEMPS AREA WIDE.
$$
21
000
FXUS64 KOHX 172028
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
228 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...(THRU MON NITE)
CURRENT...A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD DAY...WITH TEMPS AT 2 PM RANGING
FROM A CHILLY 25 AT CSV...TO 42 AT CKV WHERE HAS BEEN MOST SUNSHINE.
CLOUDY NITE TONITE AND WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG SO NOT MUCH DROP
IN TEMPS EXPECTED. WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS GRTLKS TONITE AND
SUN MORNING DRAGGING A CDFNT ACROSS CWA DURING SAME PERIOD...REACHING
BNA AROUND 12Z AND CSV BY 15Z. WAA PRECIP AHEAD OF FRONT. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
WILL BE LOW ENUF FOR MENTION OF SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LITE
AND RAIN MIXED IN.
SECONDARY FRONT COMES DOWN SUN NITE AND A CHANCE OF LITE
SNOW...MAINLY N AND E. SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING BY MON NITE.
.LONG TERM...
DRY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUE AND BEYOND...WITH A WARM-UP
BEGINNING WED AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE. FRONT APPROACHES THU NITE AND
MOVES ACROSS FRI. AGAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LITE AND A SLITE CHANCE
FOR SNOW FRI NITE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 34 39 26 33 / 30 20 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 31 37 23 31 / 30 10 20 10
CROSSVILLE 28 37 22 29 / 30 30 30 10
COLUMBIA 34 41 27 35 / 30 20 20 0
LAWRENCEBURG 34 41 28 36 / 30 10 20 0
WAVERLY 32 39 24 34 / 30 10 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/MAG
000
FXUS64 KOHX 171752
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1150 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL WAIT FOR NOON TEMPS TO SEE HOW MUCH TO LOWER MAXS FOR TODAY.
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING SOME IN W PORTIONS BUT NEW DECK ALREADY MOVING
IN FROM SW SO NOT MUCH SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MAG
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