000
FXUS64 KMRX 201525
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1025 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TRACKING OVER
THE AREA. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE ADVISORY AREA EARLY
TODAY SO WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY GOING AS IS. CURRENT POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND THE
REST OF THE FORECAST ALSO APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE ZONE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THIS
MORNING IN THE NW TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH DEFINITELY SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SMOKY AND NRN MOUNTAINS OF E TN.
CALLED TO CHECK WITH CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NC...WITH JUST
FLURRIES THERE. AREA RADARS ALSO SHOW WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST FLURRIES DROPPING SOUTH FROM ERN KY TOWARD SW VA AND THE NRN
PLATEAU.
LATEST SPECIAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS TAKEN BY UNCA STUDENTS FROM THE
ETSU CAMPUS IN JOHNSON CITY TN...SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE THAN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST...STILL SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
620 MBS. TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF THAT LAYER WAS A CHILLY -20
DEGREES CELSIUS. FORECAST LAPSE RATES FOR TODAY ARE INDICATED TO BE
GREATER THAN 9 DEGS C PER KM...SO SOME INSTABILITY SUGGESTED EVEN
THOUGH MODEL DATA WOULD OFFER LESS THAN 30 J/KG AVAILABLE CAPE.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SMOKY AND NRN MTNS THROUGH 3PM EST TODAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS FOR POP AND WEATHER FIT NICELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
SO LITTLE CHANGES MADE. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SEEM QUITE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN CHILLY CURRENT TEMPS AT 08Z AND PATCHY SNOW COVER
...I CHOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE COLDER NAM
THAN THE GFS MOS. CLOUDS WILL VARY IN AMOUNT TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE
AN OVERALL DECREASE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A CHILLY SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR TONIGHT...IF WINDS STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH OR BETTER. WILL PASS
THIS DECISION OFF TO NEXT SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAJOR DEAMPLIFICATION OF
UPPER AIR FLOW IN THE OFFING AS PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE
TROUGH PULLS EASTWARD AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE RELAXES. THIS RESULTS
IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
PORTEND MODERATION IN TEMPS AS THIS PROCESS EVOLVES. RELATIVELY
MINOR SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIODS BRACKETING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM APPROACHES BY
MONDAY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 20 41 23 55 / 20 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 16 36 22 50 / 20 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 31 17 37 21 51 / 20 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 13 32 17 47 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH/TG/LCM
000
FXUS64 KMRX 201141
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
640 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...APPEARS THAT TRI AND TYS MAY BE IN THE PATH OF STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...WITH AN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER CURRENTLY LOWERING VSBY INTO IFR CATEGORY AT
TYS. DON`T EXPECT VSBY TO BE REDUCED TO 2 MILES OR LESS VERY LONG.
OVERALL...CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR TO AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR CHA AND TYS THIS EVENING...
BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY STAY BROKEN LONGER AT TRI...BUT MOST LIKELY VFR.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 200850
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THIS
MORNING IN THE NW TO N LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH DEFINITELY SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SMOKY AND NRN MOUTAINS OF E TN.
CALLED TO CHECK WITH CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NC...WITH JUST
FLURRIES THERE. AREA RADARS ALSO SHOW WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE AT
LEAST FLURRIES DROPPING SOUTH FROM ERN KY TOWARD SW VA AND THE NRN
PLATEAU.
LATEST SPECIAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS TAKEN BY UNCA STUDENTS FROM THE
ETSU CAMPUS IN JOHNSON CITY TN...SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE THAN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST...STILL SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
620 MBS. TEMPERATURE AT THE TOP OF THAT LAYER WAS A CHILLY -20
DEGREES CELSIUS. FORECAST LAPSE RATES FOR TODAY ARE INDICATED TO BE
GREATER THAN 9 DEGS C PER KM...SO SOME INSTABILITY SUGGESTED EVEN
THOUGH MODEL DATA WOULD OFFER LESS THAN 30 J/KG AVAILABLE CAPE.
GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...OPTED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SMOKY AND NRN MTNS THROUGH 3PM EST TODAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS FOR POP AND WEATHER FIT NICELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
SO LITTLE CHANGES MADE. SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SEEM QUITE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...GIVEN CHILLY CURRENT TEMPS AT 08Z AND PATCHY SNOW COVER
...I CHOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE COLDER NAM
THAN THE GFS MOS. CLOUDS WILL VARY IN AMOUNT TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE
AN OVERALL DECREASE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A CHILLY SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR TONIGHT...IF WINDS STAY UP AROUND 10 MPH OR BETTER. WILL PASS
THIS DECISION OFF TO NEXT SHIFT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAJOR DEAMPLIFICATION OF
UPPER AIR FLOW IN THE OFFING AS PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE
TROUGH PULLS EASTWARD AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE RELAXES. THIS RESULTS
IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION
PORTEND MODERATION IN TEMPS AS THIS PROCESS EVOLVES. RELATIVELY
MINOR SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION IN THE LATE FRIDAY TO EARLY
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIODS BRACKETING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM APPROACHES BY
MONDAY. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 20 41 23 55 / 20 0 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 16 36 22 50 / 20 0 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 31 17 37 21 51 / 20 0 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 28 13 32 17 47 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG/LCM
000
FXUS64 KMRX 200540
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1240 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO SMOKY
MTNS...BUT KEPT A FLURRY MENTION FOR TRI WITH OVERCAST VFR CEILING
HOLDING AROUND 3500 FEET. TYS HAS TEMPORARILY LOST A CEILING...BUT
LOW CLOUD DECK MAY DRIFT BACK OVERNIGHT AT TIMES (VFR THOUGH).
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS IN GENERAL FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH A COLD
N OR NW SURFACE WIND OF 15 KTS OR LESS...DIMINISHING BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 200015
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
715 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...MAIN BAND OF SNOW SLOWLY SLIDING EAST AND SHOULD HAVE
EXITED THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOP AND EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
FAVORED AREAS THROUGH 09Z. THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED ZONE
PACKAGE TO REFLECT EXTENDED ADVISORY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 34 21 41 23 / 30 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 22 33 18 36 22 / 30 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 21 32 18 37 21 / 30 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 20 27 15 32 17 / 40 30 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 192321
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
621 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
TIMING OF THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW ON RADAR BRINGS AN END TO THE SNOW
AROUND 02Z AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD BRING VIS AND CIGS TO VFR.
SATELLTIE INDICATES SOME CLEARING UPSTREAM...SO BROKEN MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 12 KTS FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST CARTER...
NORTHWEST GREENE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...
UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMRX 192106
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
356 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA...ITS BEGINNING TO EXIT THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ALMOST OVER...SO
WILL CANCEL THE WWA FOR THE PLATEAU AND LET THE ONE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ANOTHER CLIPPER FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AND THE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW AGAIN...WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
.LONG TERM....(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY TUE
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GAINS CONTROL. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY FURTHER OUT AS MODEL
AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOT GREAT. 12Z GFS BETTER
AGREES WITH ECMWF THAN PREVIOUS RUN...SO WILL GENERALLY USE A BLEND
WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR FRI THROUGH SAT...THEN DRY SUN. NEXT
SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH MON FOR SOME PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE
LIQUID BOTH SYSTEMS. LATER PART OF PERIOD WILL UNDERCUT 00Z GFS MOS
MOST SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND...GOING CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE
NUMBERS. FIRST PART OF PERIOD WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO 12Z GFS MOS
NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 34 21 41 23 / 30 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 22 33 18 36 22 / 30 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 21 32 18 37 21 / 30 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 20 27 15 32 17 / 40 30 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HAWKINS...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST
GREENE...SULLIVAN...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...WASHINGTON...WISE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: SCOTT.
&&
$$
GH/LDW
000
FXUS64 KMRX 192056
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
356 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE
AREA...ITS BEGINNING TO EXIT THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS
FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THINK THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ALMOST OVER...SO
WILL CANCEL THE WWA FOR THE PLATEAU AND LET THE ONE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS EXPIRE AT 7 PM. ANOTHER CLIPPER FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AND THE THE MOUNTAINS
FOR TUESDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW AGAIN...WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
.LONG TERM....(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY TUE
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GAINS CONTROL. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY FURTHER OUT AS MODEL
AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY NOT GREAT. 12Z GFS BETTER
AGREES WITH ECMWF THAN PREVIOUS RUN...SO WILL GENERALLY USE A BLEND
WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS ENSEMBLE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR FRI THROUGH SAT...THEN DRY SUN. NEXT
SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH MON FOR SOME PRECIP...SO WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO BE
LIQUID BOTH SYSTEMS. LATER PART OF PERIOD WILL UNDERCUT 00Z GFS MOS
MOST SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND...GOING CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE
NUMBERS. FIRST PART OF PERIOD WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO 12Z GFS MOS
NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 34 21 41 23 / 30 20 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 22 33 18 36 22 / 30 20 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 21 32 18 37 21 / 30 20 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 20 27 15 32 17 / 40 30 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HAWKINS...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST
GREENE...SULLIVAN...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...WASHINGTON...WISE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: SCOTT.
&&
$$
GH/LDW
000
FXUS64 KMRX 191758
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1258 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING RAIN/SNOW AND IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT
8-12KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...
GRAINGER...HANCOCK...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST CARTER...
NORTHWEST GREENE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...
UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KMRX 191137
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
636 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...MAIN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN JUST SKIRTING TRI TAF
SITE...SO CEILINGS THERE HAD ONLY FALLEN INTO UPPER END OF MVFR.
LATEST 09Z UNCA SOUNDING FROM ETSU (JOHNSON CITY) CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR TRI VICINITY...AND MAY SEE CEILINGS AND/OR
VBSYS LOWER THERE INTO IFR BRIEFLY LATER TODAY...THEN STAY IN MVFR
RANGE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY FOR CHA AND TYS...ALTHO
BETTER LIFT REACHES SRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO
CHA CEILING/VSBY MAY DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER AT CHA ABOVE 32 DEGREES BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.
THUS...COULD SEE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AT BOTH CHA AND TYS DURING
DAYTIME HOURS...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALL SITES FOR
THIS EVENING.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...
GRAINGER...HANCOCK...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST CARTER...
NORTHWEST GREENE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...
UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 190943
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
443 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WINTRY WEATHER EVENT SHAPING UP...
BUT AS USUAL NOT EXACTLY AS THOUGHT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW
FINALLY REACHING SW VA TO TRI VICINITY...BUT REALLY JUST A DUSTING
SO FAR IN WISE COUNTY VA. TRI VSBY (9SM) SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION THERE. 19/06Z SOUNDING TAKEN BY UNCA STUDENTS FROM ETSU
CAMPUS IN JOHNSON CITY TN...DOES SHOW A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR SNOW
WITH MOISTURE FROM SURFACE TO 680 MBS...AND TOP OF SATURATED LAYER
AT -18 DEGS CELSIUS TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.
SATELLITE PICS AND 19/00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY
THIS MORNING SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NRN AREAS...IN LINE
WITH AREA RADARS. HOWEVER...BEST FORCING/LIFT AFTER THIS MORNING
APPEARS TO SHIFT ACROSS SE TN/SW NC/NRN GA WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AS WELL...SO THESE CHANGES DEFINITELY
LOWER MY CONFIDENCE IN GETTING ANY MORE THAN ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER MUCH CONSIDERATION...FELT IT WAS MOST PRUDENT TO LOWER SNOW
AMOUNTS IN GENERAL...RAISE POPS ACROSS SE TN AND SW NC TONIGHT...
AND STICK WITH PREVIOUS AREAL LAYOUT AND TIMING OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR NOW. DAY SHIFT SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST CONSIDER
DROPPING ADVISORIES FOR NRN PLATEAU AND POSSIBLY SW VA WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE...7PM EST ENDING TIME SHOULD WORK WELL.
FINAL ITEM WAS MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. I UNDERCUT MOS BUT NOT AS MUCH
AS YESTERDAY...GIVEN BEST MOS PERFORMANCE SUNDAY AFTER SEVERAL POOR
DAYS IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. MOS MINS TONIGHT WERE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID...SO NUDGED MINS UP A FEW DEGREES
FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO TN VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. BEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION STARTS SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA AT 12Z AND SHIFTS EAST
INTO NC DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AS TODAY AND BEST
LIFT OCCURS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS AREA AND FLOW FROM THE NORTH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY COLD. WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH DECREASING
CHANCES FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AS FOLLOWING QPF GUIDANCE WHICH PRODUCES ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEY AND EXPECT
AN INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS. WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH STARTS SHIFTING EAST. SURFACE HIGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS IN FOR CLEARING SKIES. SOME CLOUDS NE AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEAST ON EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. HIGHS THERE ONLY NEAR FREEZING. ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MUCH WARMER AS TEMPERATURES RECOVERED TO THE 50S.
BEST CHANCE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FROM NW SETTLES IN BEHIND
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 25 34 21 43 / 40 20 20 10 10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 41 22 33 18 40 / 40 30 20 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 21 33 18 39 / 30 30 20 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 20 27 15 35 / 70 30 30 20 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...
GRAINGER...HANCOCK...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST CARTER...
NORTHWEST GREENE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...
UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
TG/TD
000
FXUS64 KMRX 190541
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1240 AM EST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...AWAITING THE ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW...WITH LIGHT
SNOW ONLY AFFECTING TRI AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR CHA AND TYS FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HOURS...BUT TRI
SHOULD QUICKLY DROP INTO MVFR CEILING AND VSBY...WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT MAY BE LESS
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...GIVEN QUICK LOOK AT 19/00Z MODEL DATA AND
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR. THUS...CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOOK TO
IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...
CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HANCOCK...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST
CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...
SULLIVAN...UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...
WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 190258
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
958 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...A RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORT
WAVE EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER EXPECTED TO SLIDE IN
LATE TONIGHT. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY FREEZING LEVELS WILL
REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. OVERALL...SHOULD SEE
THE INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP EXIT LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIP CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP...AS
A SYSTEM WITH WITH DECENT LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHES IN TOWARD
MORNING...WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW. EXPECT SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY MORNING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL ON TRACK IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE
TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 37 23 34 21 / 50 30 20 10 10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 31 35 19 33 19 / 50 40 30 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 30 34 20 33 19 / 60 30 30 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 31 18 27 16 / 60 70 30 20 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...
CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HANCOCK...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST
CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...
SULLIVAN...UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...
WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 182336
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
636 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST ONE IS CROSSING THE TRI AREA
NOW...SO WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR -SN AND MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THAT CIGS AT TRI WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT. TYS AND CHA
SHOULD STAY WITH VFR BROKEN-OVERCAST. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...LIKELY BRINGING -SN TO ALL SITES.
WILL KEEP VIS/CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH GIVEN SOME
STEEP TEMPERATURES LAPSE RATES AT TRI...SOME HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS
COULD LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN QUICK WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...
HANCOCK...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST
GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...WASHINGTON
TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMRX 182052
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
345 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EVIDENCED BY STRONG WAA THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. CLOUDS
WILL MARCH BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. UPSTREAM CLOUD TOPS IN THE
GOOD SNOW GROWTH REGION. FREEZING LEVEL WILL FALL TO NEAR THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MRX CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL
WILL BEGIN BEFORE THEN AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON
SURFACE TEMPS. VERY GOOD UPPER LIFT MOVES ACROSS N PART OF MRX CWA
AROUND 19/12Z. MODERATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXING RATIOS FAVOR
MODERATE SNOWFALL EARLY MONDAY. PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE TRADITIONAL
NW UPSLOPE EVENT BY MON AFTN. THIS PATTERN WITH ITS CAA PERSISTS
INTO TUE WITH SHOULD RESULT IN HEFTY SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES
OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. THE SPEED OF THE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATION. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
WITH DECENT MOISTURE INDICATED WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE FRONT LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...WITH STILL
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON ITS LOCATION AND TIMING...WILL KEEP ONLY 20 POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STAYED NEAR
MEX/HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 37 23 34 21 / 50 30 20 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 35 19 33 19 / 50 40 30 20 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 30 34 20 33 19 / 60 30 30 20 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 31 18 27 16 / 60 70 30 20 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...CAMPBELL...
CLAIBORNE...GRAINGER...HANCOCK...MORGAN...SCOTT TN...UNION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST
CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...
SULLIVAN...UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...
WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
SON/GH
000
FXUS64 KMRX 181751 RRA
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1251 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BRINGING SNOW. CHA SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TONIGHT...BUT TYS AND TRI
SHOULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
8-12KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HANCOCK...JOHNSON...
NORTHWEST CARTER...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...
WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 181751
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1250 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WORKING NE INTO THE AREA. WILL LOWER POPS...CARRY MAINLY RAIN AND
ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HANCOCK...JOHNSON...
NORTHWEST CARTER...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...
WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
SON
000
FXUS64 KMRX 181452
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
952 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...AREA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING. ADVISORY
FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST. ADVISORY FOR SNOW REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND MAY BE EXPANDED AFTER REVIEWING LATER MODEL
RUNS. LOWERED ALREADY BELOW GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BEFORE
NEXT ROUND MOVES IN FROM NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 44 30 37 23 34 / 30 20 20 20 30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 27 35 19 33 / 30 50 30 30 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 42 26 34 20 33 / 30 50 30 30 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 26 31 18 27 / 30 50 50 30 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HANCOCK...JOHNSON...
NORTHWEST CARTER...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...
WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
SON
000
FXUS64 KMRX 181139
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
638 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT AT TRI THIS MORNING
...BUT SURFACE TEMP HAS SLOWLY WARMED OVERNIGHT. LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS MORE...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR.
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT CHA AND SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALSO
AT TYS FOR REST OF THE MORNING...WITH MVFR DUE MOSTLY TO CEILING.
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS OCCUR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HANCOCK...JOHNSON...
NORTHWEST CARTER...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...
HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...
MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH
SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST
GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...
SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...
UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...
WASHINGTON...WISE.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 180948
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
448 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN EARLY TODAY
IS PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...ACROSS MUCH OF
NE TN AND SWRN VA. TEMPTED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY BEYOND 10 AM EST
...BUT SURFACE TEMPS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO RISE SLOWLY OVER PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND PRECIPITATION (PCPN) WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
MODELS SHOWING A DECREASE AFTER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN A MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT
OBSERVATIONS AND INCOMING CALLS INDICATE MOSTLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE. PREFERRED TO STAY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID
(COOLER THAN MOS) FOR TODAY...AS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM GIVEN
CLOUDS AND PCPN.
FOR TONIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX...PLUS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED NAM-WRF MODEL IN LINE WITH WWD
GRAPHICS FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION BY 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY IN OUR
FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA/NE TN/SMOKY MTNS.
FOR ADVISORIES...WILL CONTINUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 15Z
TODAY...THEN FOLLOW IT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7PM EST
SUNDAY THROUGH 7AM EST MONDAY. WILL GIVE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO A CHANCE
TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN AREA OR EXTEND IN TIME AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE BEHIND
TODAYS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
AREAS AND SW VA WITH AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A COUPLE
MORE INCHES EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVING SOUTH FROM
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AROUND COLD LOW WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION
AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE COLD AIRMASS AND BRING EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL END TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AND
BE MUCH WARMER BY THURSDAY. NEW SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN INTO REGION
FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND IT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FRIDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 30 37 23 34 / 40 20 20 20 30
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 41 27 35 19 33 / 40 50 30 30 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 26 34 20 33 / 40 50 30 30 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 26 31 18 27 / 40 50 50 30 40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HANCOCK...JOHNSON...
NORTHWEST CARTER...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...
HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...
MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH
SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST
GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...
SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...
UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...
WASHINGTON...WISE.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
TG/TD
000
FXUS64 KMRX 180543
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1242 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS
ACROSS THE REGION...AS LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WERE FALLING INTO
SURFACE TEMPS BELOW ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTIONS WERE CHA AND
TYS ABOVE 32 DEGREES.
VFR CEILINGS TO START OUT AT CHA AND TYS...BUT MAY FALL JUST INTO
MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. TRI GETTING
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH MAY
DROP INTO IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER TODAY...BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS AND
LOWERING CEILINGS OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
000
FXUS64 KMRX 180344
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1044 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.DISCUSSION...WILL SEE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...
POSSIBLIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE AREA THROUGH 15Z. ADDITIONALLY...AN
850MB JET PUSHING THROUGH...GENERATING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ALL LOOKS GOOD IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL UPDATE
FOR ADVISORY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 42 26 36 23 / 50 40 20 20 20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 30 41 25 35 20 / 50 40 40 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 29 41 25 35 19 / 50 40 40 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 25 38 24 31 17 / 50 40 50 30 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BLOUNT SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...
HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...LOUDON...
MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...NORTH
SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST
GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT TN...
SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...
UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
MJB
000
FXUS64 KMRX 172323
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
623 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN JUST ABOVE MVFR...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER A
BIT MORE AFTER SUNSET. WILL BRING IN PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS AT
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF LIGHT PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES...MAINLY FLURRIES OF DRIZZLE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT
TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM LESS THAN 10 KTS AT THE SURFACE TO AROUND
40 KTS ABOUT 2 KFT...BUT SINCE THE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED WILL BE
GRADUAL THROUGH THAT LAYER...WILL LEAVE LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
000
FXUS64 KMRX 172032
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
325 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...STACKED LOW PRESSURE
WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD TROF WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE EAST U.S.. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL
DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT
AND WARM SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. BULK OF MOISTURE BELOW FAVORED SNOW GROWTH
REGION. PCPN TYPE WILL MORPH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. APPEARS LIGHT RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE DOMINATE MOST AREAS. TOMORROW PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN
SUN NGT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SNOW INTO MONDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS N 2/3 OF MRX CWA. GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER
FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. THE SPEED OF THE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATION. BEST ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH DECENT
MOISTURE INDICATED WILL BUMP UP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND
KEEP ONLY 20 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 33 42 26 36 23 / 50 40 20 20 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 41 25 35 20 / 50 40 40 20 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 29 41 25 35 19 / 50 40 40 20 30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 25 38 24 31 17 / 50 40 50 30 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SON/GH
000
FXUS64 KMRX 171940
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
239 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FRONT WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 18-20KTS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
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