000
FXUS64 KLZK 201613
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1013 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONT WORKING SWD ACRS THE FA THIS MRNG. MOST FCST SITES
REPORTING VFR CONDS...WITH MVFR CIGS NOTED OVR NRN AR ATTM. COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES THRU MID MRNG AT KHRO AND KBPK...BUT LTL IMPACT
ON VSBYS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP DURG THE AFTN
HRS AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY...AND IT WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BECOME ZONAL FLOW BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES SQUEEZED OUT OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. A DRY
RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY
MORNING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
TEND TO HOLD CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS CONT TO INDC A GENERAL ZONAL UPR FLOW ACRS THE REGION THRU
THE PD. STAYED CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS
FCST. FNTL SYS WL BE DEPARTING THE FA AT THE START OF THE PD. THE
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST OVR THE WEEKEND.
NELY SFC FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS AT BLW NORMAL LVLS. BY SUN NGT/MON...A
NEW UPR LVL SYS WL APCH FM THE W. MOISTURE WL SURGE NWD OVER THE SFC
BNDRY TO OUR S TO PRODUCE INCRSG CHCS OF PRECIP. KEPT CHC POPS GOING
FOR NOW AS SYSTEM IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK OUT. SFC TEMPS WL BCM COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVR PARTS OF NRN AR EARLY MON MRNG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 35 22 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 25 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 33 22 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 25 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 42 24 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 44 25 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 44 23 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 33 19 53 28 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 35 24 53 31 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 43 24 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 39 23 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 39 24 55 31 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 41 26 54 33 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 201134
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
534 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONT WORKING SWD ACRS THE FA THIS MRNG. MOST FCST SITES
REPORTING VFR CONDS...WITH MVFR CIGS NOTED OVR NRN AR ATTM. COULD
SEE A FEW FLURRIES THRU MID MRNG AT KHRO AND KBPK...BUT LTL IMPACT
ON VSBYS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BREAK UP DURG THE AFTN
HRS AS DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION...WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY...AND IT WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BECOME ZONAL FLOW BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES SQUEEZED OUT OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. A DRY
RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY
MORNING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
TEND TO HOLD CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS CONT TO INDC A GENERAL ZONAL UPR FLOW ACRS THE REGION THRU
THE PD. STAYED CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS
FCST. FNTL SYS WL BE DEPARTING THE FA AT THE START OF THE PD. THE
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST OVR THE WEEKEND.
NELY SFC FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS AT BLW NORMAL LVLS. BY SUN NGT/MON...A
NEW UPR LVL SYS WL APCH FM THE W. MOISTURE WL SURGE NWD OVER THE SFC
BNDRY TO OUR S TO PRODUCE INCRSG CHCS OF PRECIP. KEPT CHC POPS GOING
FOR NOW AS SYSTEM IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK OUT. SFC TEMPS WL BCM COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVR PARTS OF NRN AR EARLY MON MRNG.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLZK 200916
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
316 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY...AND IT WILL
LEAVE BEHIND A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BECOME ZONAL FLOW BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST FLATTENS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES SQUEEZED OUT OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. A DRY
RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NEXT...A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY
MORNING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
TEND TO HOLD CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TAKE OVER FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS CONT TO INDC A GENERAL ZONAL UPR FLOW ACRS THE REGION THRU
THE PD. STAYED CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS
FCST. FNTL SYS WL BE DEPARTING THE FA AT THE START OF THE PD. THE
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST OVR THE WEEKEND.
NELY SFC FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS AT BLW NORMAL LVLS. BY SUN NGT/MON...A
NEW UPR LVL SYS WL APCH FM THE W. MOISTURE WL SURGE NWD OVER THE SFC
BNDRY TO OUR S TO PRODUCE INCRSG CHCS OF PRECIP. KEPT CHC POPS GOING
FOR NOW AS SYSTEM IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK OUT. SFC TEMPS WL BCM COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVR PARTS OF NRN AR EARLY MON MRNG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 35 22 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 25 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 33 22 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 25 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 42 24 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 44 25 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 44 23 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 33 19 53 28 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 35 24 53 31 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 43 24 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 39 23 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 39 24 55 31 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 41 26 54 33 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32 / LONG TERM...44
000
FXUS64 KLZK 200528
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1128 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL DRIVE A WEAK BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE STATE. EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH CEILINGS
UNDER 3500 FEET OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE AND SPREADING
OVER SOUTHWARD. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN THEY
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA LOW
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AREA OF
LIFT...INDICATED WELL BY MID LEVEL Q-VECTORS...WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND MODERATELY FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES UNDER A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIVES OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. INCLUDED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE WITH A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 192340
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. AN AREA
OF MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. THE DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A STRAY FLURRY AT KBPK BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
INCLUDE IN THE KBPK TERMINAL. THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA LOW
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AREA OF
LIFT...INDICATED WELL BY MID LEVEL Q-VECTORS...WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND MODERATELY FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES UNDER A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIVES OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. INCLUDED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE WITH A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 25 39 23 54 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 31 46 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 23 37 23 58 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 29 45 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 29 44 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 31 44 27 57 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 45 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 23 37 21 56 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 26 39 25 53 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 30 44 27 57 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 25 42 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 27 41 25 55 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 29 42 27 55 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 192058
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA LOW
CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORT WAVE IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AREA OF
LIFT...INDICATED WELL BY MID LEVEL Q-VECTORS...WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND MODERATELY FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES UNDER A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIVES OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BUT WITH
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT AND SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. INCLUDED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE WITH A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 23 39 23 54 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 27 46 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 21 37 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 27 45 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 27 44 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 28 44 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 27 45 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 22 37 21 56 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 24 39 25 53 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 27 44 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 24 42 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 25 41 25 55 / 10 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 27 42 27 55 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 191746
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1146 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTED
TO 29 KTS ALONG THE FRONT BUT TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DECREASING SOME CLOUD COVER. A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS WILL
BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA AT 10K TO 15K FT. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA STRONGER TUESDAY AND
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A LITTLE EASTWARD...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO NEAR TERM FORECASTS...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THESE UPDATES ARE MOST REFLECTED IN NEAR TERM
FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS.
55
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
ON TOP OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 3 THSD FEET. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM MISSOURI. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS DO GET SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DRY SURFACE FRONT
CROSSING THE STATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
OUR NEXT CDFNT WAS DROPPING SWD THRU NRN AR EARLY THIS MRNG. COMBO
OF CLOUDS AND SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FNT HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FNTL BNDRY WL CONT SWD AND EXIT SRN AR LATER THIS MRNG. DECENT
CAA NOTED BEHIND THE FNT...SO EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE STEADY OR
EVEN SLOLY FALLING TEMPS LATER TODAY. LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS
WORKING INTO NRN AR ATTM AND WL CONT WORKING SWD THIS MRNG. MODELS
INDC THAT CLOUDS WL TEND TO SCT OUT BY AFTN...BUT WL LEAN ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR MUCH OF DAY ACRS THE FA.
GUSTY WINDS WL FOLLOW FROPA...BUT FCST SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RMN BLW
LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE SWD INTO THE FA LATE TNGT AND EARLY
TUE...WITH CLOUDS INCRSG ONCE AGAIN. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
PRODUCED OVR NERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT S OF THE REGION BY WED...ALLOWING SWLY SFC
FLOW TO INCRS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW A MODERATING TREND TO COMMENCE.
LTL IF ANY GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...SO DRY CONDS WL
CONT THRU THE END OF THE PD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE 500 MB FLOW WILL START WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN...THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
ZONAL FASHION. THE SURFACE SOLUTION WILL SEE A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY...MOIST FLOW DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
THEN...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW THEN WILL LINGER
NEAR THE GULF COAST...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT
WILL TEND TO GIVE ISOLATED TO SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN AN OVERRUNNING
SITUATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY INCLUDES POPS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...BUT I WILL LEAVE THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED DRY UNTIL
MORE CERTAINTY IN THE PLACING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTS IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THEN...ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TREND IN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 42 25 37 24 / 10 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 53 29 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 38 22 37 23 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 29 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 29 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 30 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 29 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 38 25 37 21 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 42 27 37 25 / 10 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 48 29 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 44 26 42 24 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 27 40 25 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 46 29 42 28 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 191613
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1013 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO NEAR TERM FORECASTS...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THESE UPDATES ARE MOST REFLECTED IN NEAR TERM
FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
ON TOP OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 3 THSD FEET. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM MISSOURI. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS DO GET SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DRY SURFACE FRONT
CROSSING THE STATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
OUR NEXT CDFNT WAS DROPPING SWD THRU NRN AR EARLY THIS MRNG. COMBO
OF CLOUDS AND SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FNT HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FNTL BNDRY WL CONT SWD AND EXIT SRN AR LATER THIS MRNG. DECENT
CAA NOTED BEHIND THE FNT...SO EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE STEADY OR
EVEN SLOLY FALLING TEMPS LATER TODAY. LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS
WORKING INTO NRN AR ATTM AND WL CONT WORKING SWD THIS MRNG. MODELS
INDC THAT CLOUDS WL TEND TO SCT OUT BY AFTN...BUT WL LEAN ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR MUCH OF DAY ACRS THE FA.
GUSTY WINDS WL FOLLOW FROPA...BUT FCST SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RMN BLW
LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE SWD INTO THE FA LATE TNGT AND EARLY
TUE...WITH CLOUDS INCRSG ONCE AGAIN. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
PRODUCED OVR NERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT S OF THE REGION BY WED...ALLOWING SWLY SFC
FLOW TO INCRS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW A MODERATING TREND TO COMMENCE.
LTL IF ANY GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...SO DRY CONDS WL
CONT THRU THE END OF THE PD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE 500 MB FLOW WILL START WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN...THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
ZONAL FASHION. THE SURFACE SOLUTION WILL SEE A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY...MOIST FLOW DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
THEN...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW THEN WILL LINGER
NEAR THE GULF COAST...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT
WILL TEND TO GIVE ISOLATED TO SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN AN OVERRUNNING
SITUATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY INCLUDES POPS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...BUT I WILL LEAVE THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED DRY UNTIL
MORE CERTAINTY IN THE PLACING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTS IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THEN...ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TREND IN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 42 25 37 24 / 10 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 53 29 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 38 22 37 23 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 29 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 29 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 30 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 29 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 38 25 37 21 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 42 27 37 25 / 10 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 48 29 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 44 26 42 24 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 27 40 25 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 46 29 42 28 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
000
FXUS64 KLZK 191123
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
523 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
ON TOP OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 3 THSD FEET. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM MISSOURI. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS DO GET SOMEWHAT
GUSTY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DRY SURFACE FRONT
CROSSING THE STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
OUR NEXT CDFNT WAS DROPPING SWD THRU NRN AR EARLY THIS MRNG. COMBO
OF CLOUDS AND SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FNT HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FNTL BNDRY WL CONT SWD AND EXIT SRN AR LATER THIS MRNG. DECENT
CAA NOTED BEHIND THE FNT...SO EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE STEADY OR
EVEN SLOLY FALLING TEMPS LATER TODAY. LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS
WORKING INTO NRN AR ATTM AND WL CONT WORKING SWD THIS MRNG. MODELS
INDC THAT CLOUDS WL TEND TO SCT OUT BY AFTN...BUT WL LEAN ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR MUCH OF DAY ACRS THE FA.
GUSTY WINDS WL FOLLOW FROPA...BUT FCST SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RMN BLW
LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE SWD INTO THE FA LATE TNGT AND EARLY
TUE...WITH CLOUDS INCRSG ONCE AGAIN. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
PRODUCED OVR NERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT S OF THE REGION BY WED...ALLOWING SWLY SFC
FLOW TO INCRS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW A MODERATING TREND TO COMMENCE.
LTL IF ANY GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...SO DRY CONDS WL
CONT THRU THE END OF THE PD.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE 500 MB FLOW WILL START WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN...THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
ZONAL FASHION. THE SURFACE SOLUTION WILL SEE A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY...MOIST FLOW DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
THEN...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW THEN WILL LINGER
NEAR THE GULF COAST...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT
WILL TEND TO GIVE ISOLATED TO SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN AN OVERRUNNING
SITUATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY INCLUDES POPS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...BUT I WILL LEAVE THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED DRY UNTIL
MORE CERTAINTY IN THE PLACING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTS IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THEN...ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TREND IN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 41 25 37 24 / 10 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 53 29 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 38 22 37 23 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 29 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 29 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 30 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 29 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 38 25 37 21 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 42 27 37 25 / 10 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 48 29 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 44 26 42 24 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 27 40 25 / 10 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 46 29 42 28 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...32
000
FXUS64 KLZK 190956
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
OUR NEXT CDFNT WAS DROPPING SWD THRU NRN AR EARLY THIS MRNG. COMBO
OF CLOUDS AND SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FNT HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FNTL BNDRY WL CONT SWD AND EXIT SRN AR LATER THIS MRNG. DECENT
CAA NOTED BEHIND THE FNT...SO EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE STEADY OR
EVEN SLOLY FALLING TEMPS LATER TODAY. LEADING EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS
WORKING INTO NRN AR ATTM AND WL CONT WORKING SWD THIS MRNG. MODELS
INDC THAT CLOUDS WL TEND TO SCT OUT BY AFTN...BUT WL LEAN ON THE
PESSIMISTIC SIDE AND KEEP CLOUDS IN FOR MUCH OF DAY ACRS THE FA.
GUSTY WINDS WL FOLLOW FROPA...BUT FCST SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RMN BLW
LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA.
ANOTHER UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE SWD INTO THE FA LATE TNGT AND EARLY
TUE...WITH CLOUDS INCRSG ONCE AGAIN. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES
PRODUCED OVR NERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL.
SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT S OF THE REGION BY WED...ALLOWING SWLY SFC
FLOW TO INCRS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW A MODERATING TREND TO COMMENCE.
LTL IF ANY GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...SO DRY CONDS WL
CONT THRU THE END OF THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE 500 MB FLOW WILL START WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN...THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN
ZONAL FASHION. THE SURFACE SOLUTION WILL SEE A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY...MOIST FLOW DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
THEN...A BACK DOOR TYPE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH BY 12Z SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE LOW THEN WILL LINGER
NEAR THE GULF COAST...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW THAT
WILL TEND TO GIVE ISOLATED TO SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN AN OVERRUNNING
SITUATION. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY INCLUDES POPS THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...BUT I WILL LEAVE THE LAST DAY OF THE EXTENDED DRY UNTIL
MORE CERTAINTY IN THE PLACING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTS IN
ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THEN...ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TREND IN TEMPS.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...32
000
FXUS64 KLZK 190526
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1126 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND ONLY A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ONLY A WIND SHIFT WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH NO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED.
OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO
THE SKY AND WIND GRIDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE U.S. A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING A STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL SHUNT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 30 40 27 40 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 36 54 32 50 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 27 39 24 38 / 0 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 33 49 30 47 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 33 47 30 45 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 36 49 32 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 32 49 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 28 38 24 39 / 10 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 32 40 27 41 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 36 48 32 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 45 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 32 44 28 42 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 34 46 31 44 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 190226 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
826 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ONLY A WIND SHIFT WILL BE NOTED...AS WELL AS MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH NO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED.
OVERALL...ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO
THE SKY AND WIND GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE U.S. A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING A STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL SHUNT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 182328
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
528 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ONLY
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE U.S. A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING A STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL SHUNT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 30 40 27 40 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 36 54 32 50 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 27 39 24 38 / 0 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 34 49 30 47 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 34 47 30 45 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 49 32 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 33 49 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 28 38 24 39 / 10 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 31 40 27 41 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 36 48 32 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 45 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 33 44 28 42 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 35 46 31 44 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 182100
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
259 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE U.S. A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE
NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT COOLER ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL BRING A STORM SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL SHUNT MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 30 40 27 40 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 36 54 32 50 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 27 39 24 38 / 0 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 34 49 30 47 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 34 47 30 45 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 49 32 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 33 49 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 28 38 24 39 / 10 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 31 40 27 41 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 36 48 32 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 45 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 33 44 28 42 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 35 46 31 44 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46
000
FXUS64 KLZK 181911
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
111 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING RAPIDLY. DECIDED TO SEND AN UPDATE TO
INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
UPDATE...
WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE STATE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED
MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING A MID LEVEL PATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH. IT WILL BE DRY...AND IT WILL REINFORCE THE COOL
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE EXPERIENCED JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY BOUNDARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER CDFNT WAS EXITING THE SE CORNER OF THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLR AS DRIER AIR CONTD TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
SHELTERED LOCATIONS HAD FALLEN INTO THE 20S...WITH 30S AND 40S
COMMON ELSEWHERE.
LTL IN THE WAY OF CAA NOTED BEHIND THIS LATEST FROPA...SO MOST
LOCATIONS WL SEE HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE ON SAT. SFC WINDS WL
ACTUALLY BCM MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CDFNT APCHG
FM THE N. ANOTHER SEWD MOVG IMPULSE WL BRING SOME MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS TO NERN AR THIS MRNG.
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING THE NEXT BNDRY INTO NRN AR ARND
MIDNIGHT TNGT...AND OUT OF SRN AR MON MRNG. COLDER AIR WL WORK INTO
THE AREA BEHIND FROPA...WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING FELT OVR NRN AND
ERN AR MON AND MON NGT. ANOTHER UPR IMPULSE WL DROP SWD AND BRING A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES TO NERN AR MON NGT.
THE LARGE UPR TROF OVR THE ERN STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD
STARTING TUE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WL BEGIN TO MODIFY OVR THE FA.
DRIER AIR WL ALSO RMN IN PLACE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK RIDGE AT 500 MB AT THE START WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME BASICALLY ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE PUSHED OFF SHORE BY THE TROF
ALOFT. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST...INDUCING
MOIST FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COOLER AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
THE BRIEF TIME FOR MOISTURE TO RECOVER...THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE
ONLY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY AND DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 59 30 40 27 / 0 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 65 36 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 54 27 39 23 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 34 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 35 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 65 36 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 63 34 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 29 38 25 / 0 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 58 31 40 28 / 0 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 65 36 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 29 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 60 33 44 29 / 0 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 64 35 46 31 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 181656
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1056 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...
WEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE STATE. ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED
MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING A MID LEVEL PATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH. IT WILL BE DRY...AND IT WILL REINFORCE THE COOL
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE EXPERIENCED JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY BOUNDARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER CDFNT WAS EXITING THE SE CORNER OF THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLR AS DRIER AIR CONTD TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
SHELTERED LOCATIONS HAD FALLEN INTO THE 20S...WITH 30S AND 40S
COMMON ELSEWHERE.
LTL IN THE WAY OF CAA NOTED BEHIND THIS LATEST FROPA...SO MOST
LOCATIONS WL SEE HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE ON SAT. SFC WINDS WL
ACTUALLY BCM MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CDFNT APCHG
FM THE N. ANOTHER SEWD MOVG IMPULSE WL BRING SOME MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS TO NERN AR THIS MRNG.
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING THE NEXT BNDRY INTO NRN AR ARND
MIDNIGHT TNGT...AND OUT OF SRN AR MON MRNG. COLDER AIR WL WORK INTO
THE AREA BEHIND FROPA...WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING FELT OVR NRN AND
ERN AR MON AND MON NGT. ANOTHER UPR IMPULSE WL DROP SWD AND BRING A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES TO NERN AR MON NGT.
THE LARGE UPR TROF OVR THE ERN STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD
STARTING TUE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WL BEGIN TO MODIFY OVR THE FA.
DRIER AIR WL ALSO RMN IN PLACE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK RIDGE AT 500 MB AT THE START WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME BASICALLY ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE PUSHED OFF SHORE BY THE TROF
ALOFT. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST...INDUCING
MOIST FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COOLER AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
THE BRIEF TIME FOR MOISTURE TO RECOVER...THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE
ONLY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY AND DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 51 30 40 27 / 0 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 60 36 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 50 27 39 23 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 34 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 56 35 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 59 36 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 59 34 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 29 38 25 / 0 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 52 31 40 28 / 0 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 57 36 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 55 29 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 54 33 44 29 / 0 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 56 35 46 31 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 181122
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
522 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING A MID LEVEL PATCH OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH. IT WILL BE DRY...AND IT WILL REINFORCE THE COOL
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE EXPERIENCED JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRY BOUNDARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER CDFNT WAS EXITING THE SE CORNER OF THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLR AS DRIER AIR CONTD TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
SHELTERED LOCATIONS HAD FALLEN INTO THE 20S...WITH 30S AND 40S
COMMON ELSEWHERE.
LTL IN THE WAY OF CAA NOTED BEHIND THIS LATEST FROPA...SO MOST
LOCATIONS WL SEE HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE ON SAT. SFC WINDS WL
ACTUALLY BCM MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CDFNT APCHG
FM THE N. ANOTHER SEWD MOVG IMPULSE WL BRING SOME MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS TO NERN AR THIS MRNG.
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING THE NEXT BNDRY INTO NRN AR ARND
MIDNIGHT TNGT...AND OUT OF SRN AR MON MRNG. COLDER AIR WL WORK INTO
THE AREA BEHIND FROPA...WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING FELT OVR NRN AND
ERN AR MON AND MON NGT. ANOTHER UPR IMPULSE WL DROP SWD AND BRING A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES TO NERN AR MON NGT.
THE LARGE UPR TROF OVR THE ERN STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD
STARTING TUE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WL BEGIN TO MODIFY OVR THE FA.
DRIER AIR WL ALSO RMN IN PLACE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK RIDGE AT 500 MB AT THE START WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME BASICALLY ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE PUSHED OFF SHORE BY THE TROF
ALOFT. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST...INDUCING
MOIST FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COOLER AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
THE BRIEF TIME FOR MOISTURE TO RECOVER...THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE
ONLY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY AND DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 50 30 40 27 / 0 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 59 36 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 49 27 39 23 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 34 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 56 35 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 58 36 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 57 34 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 29 38 25 / 0 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 51 31 40 28 / 0 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 56 36 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 55 29 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 54 33 44 29 / 0 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 54 35 46 31 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...32
000
FXUS64 KLZK 180947
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER CDFNT WAS EXITING THE SE CORNER OF THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLR AS DRIER AIR CONTD TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
SHELTERED LOCATIONS HAD FALLEN INTO THE 20S...WITH 30S AND 40S
COMMON ELSEWHERE.
LTL IN THE WAY OF CAA NOTED BEHIND THIS LATEST FROPA...SO MOST
LOCATIONS WL SEE HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE ON SAT. SFC WINDS WL
ACTUALLY BCM MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTN AHEAD OF ANOTHER CDFNT APCHG
FM THE N. ANOTHER SEWD MOVG IMPULSE WL BRING SOME MID/HIGH LVL
CLOUDS TO NERN AR THIS MRNG.
PERSISTENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING THE NEXT BNDRY INTO NRN AR ARND
MIDNIGHT TNGT...AND OUT OF SRN AR MON MRNG. COLDER AIR WL WORK INTO
THE AREA BEHIND FROPA...WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING FELT OVR NRN AND
ERN AR MON AND MON NGT. ANOTHER UPR IMPULSE WL DROP SWD AND BRING A
SMALL CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES TO NERN AR MON NGT.
THE LARGE UPR TROF OVR THE ERN STATES FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD
STARTING TUE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WL BEGIN TO MODIFY OVR THE FA.
DRIER AIR WL ALSO RMN IN PLACE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK RIDGE AT 500 MB AT THE START WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THEN...THE FLOW
WILL BECOME BASICALLY ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE PUSHED OFF SHORE BY THE TROF
ALOFT. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST...INDUCING
MOIST FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE OUT OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND COOLER AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
THE BRIEF TIME FOR MOISTURE TO RECOVER...THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE
ONLY MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
ON THURSDAY AND DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...32
000
FXUS64 KLZK 180513
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1113 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
MID DECK OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THINK THAT THE MISSOURI CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. SOUTHERN CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OVERNIGHT...AND PICK UP DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AS UPPER TROF CROSSES THE
AREA...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY BISECTING
THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE LACKING...WILL PULL REMOVE ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REMOVAL OF POPS
AND ALSO FOR CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND A PEEK AT
THE NEW NAM. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED, FORECAST PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST AND NORTH...AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AERA. VFR
CONIDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES IT TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS BECOME WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
AIRMASS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE CURRENT AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES THROUGH
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PATCHES OF
CLOUDS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AROUND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL SPREAD CLOUDS/INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE LONG TERM
BEGINS...BUT READINGS WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS TEMPORARILY
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. READINGS WILL MODIFY ONCE AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 32 47 30 41 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 41 58 34 52 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 30 43 28 40 / 10 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 37 56 33 48 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 37 53 32 46 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 40 55 35 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 37 55 33 48 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 31 43 29 39 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 34 48 31 42 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 39 54 34 48 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 32 51 29 44 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 35 49 31 44 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 37 51 33 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 180252
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
852 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY BISECTING
THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUING TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE LACKING...WILL PULL REMOVE ALL
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REMOVAL OF POPS
AND ALSO FOR CLOUD COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND A PEEK AT
THE NEW NAM. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED, FORECAST PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST AND NORTH...AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AERA. VFR
CONIDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES IT TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS BECOME WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
AIRMASS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE CURRENT AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES THROUGH
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PATCHES OF
CLOUDS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AROUND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL SPREAD CLOUDS/INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE LONG TERM
BEGINS...BUT READINGS WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS TEMPORARILY
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. READINGS WILL MODIFY ONCE AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 32 47 30 41 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 41 58 34 52 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 30 43 28 40 / 10 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 37 56 33 48 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 37 53 32 46 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 40 55 35 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 37 55 33 48 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 31 43 29 39 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 34 48 31 42 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 39 54 34 48 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 32 51 29 44 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 35 49 31 44 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 37 51 33 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 172331
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
531 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST AND NORTH...AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AERA. VFR
CONIDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES IT TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS BECOME WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
AIRMASS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE CURRENT AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES THROUGH
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PATCHES OF
CLOUDS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AROUND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL SPREAD CLOUDS/INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE LONG TERM
BEGINS...BUT READINGS WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS TEMPORARILY
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. READINGS WILL MODIFY ONCE AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 172049
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES IT TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS BECOME WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE
AIRMASS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE CURRENT AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BRING WEAK SHORT WAVES THROUGH
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO PATCHES OF
CLOUDS IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON MONDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AROUND THE FRONT...WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL SPREAD CLOUDS/INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST AS THE LONG TERM
BEGINS...BUT READINGS WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS TEMPORARILY
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. READINGS WILL MODIFY ONCE AGAIN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 31 47 29 41 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 38 58 32 52 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 29 43 26 40 / 0 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 34 56 31 48 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 35 53 30 46 / 10 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 38 55 33 50 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 34 55 31 48 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 29 43 27 39 / 0 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 32 48 29 42 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 37 54 32 48 / 20 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 30 51 27 44 / 10 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 33 49 29 44 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 35 51 31 45 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46
000
FXUS64 KLZK 172012 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY KPBF/KLLQ. OTHERWISE...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST
AREAS.
BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30
MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
THE NORTH. HARRISON HAS WARMED TO 48 DEGREES ALREADY THIS MORNING.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WAS LOCATED E OF THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH LGT
S/SELY WINDS NOTED OVR THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS BEGAN
FORMING FRI EVENING AND EXPANDED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MRNG.
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RMN STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
S/SWLY FLOW WL INCRS ACRS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF A FAST MOVG
CDFNT THAT WL MOVE THRU THE FA TNGT AND EARLY SUN. MODELS INDC THAT
THE LOW CLOUDS SHLD SCT OUT THIS AFTN. LOW LVL RH RETURN AHEAD THE
FNT STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT CONTD WL LOW CHC POPS OVR SERN AR
LATER TNGT WITH FROPA.
LTL CHG IN AIRMASS NOTED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY...
SO HIGHS ON SUN SHLD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S READINGS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WL BRING ANOTHER CDFNT SWD THRU THE FA SUN NGT/EARLY MON. COLDER AIR
WL FOLLOW THIS BNDRY WITH A RETURN TO BLW NORMAL TEMPS. LACK OF SIG
MOISTURE WL KEEP PRECIP CHCS NIL. AIRMASS WL BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PD.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE AND FLATTEN QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY. NEXT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND APPROACH THE STATE THURSDAY...WITH ITS EFFECTS AT THE
SURFACE STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL A HIGH OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
DRY AIR IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING 12Z FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. REINFORCING COOL AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMALS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 49 30 48 27 / 0 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 52 38 59 29 / 0 20 10 0
HARRISON AR 52 29 42 24 / 0 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 34 56 30 / 0 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 50 36 53 29 / 0 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 51 38 55 32 / 0 30 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 52 34 56 29 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 52 29 44 25 / 0 0 10 10
NEWPORT AR 48 32 49 28 / 0 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 51 37 54 30 / 0 20 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 51 28 52 24 / 0 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 49 32 50 26 / 0 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 49 35 51 29 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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