000
FXUS64 KLUB 201723
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 21/12Z. NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BACK TO THE W/SW OVERNIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH DEEP NLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD IN THE NLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
EARLY TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AS WELL.
PROGGED THICKNESSES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS SUGGEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AND HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED MET NUMBERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS. NORTH WINDS TODAY SHOULD BACK TWD W/SW TONIGHT. COOL DOWN
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD BE COUNTERACTED SOME BY
THESE 10KT DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
DE-AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW 0
DEGREES...INDUCING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...A MORE
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE BRUNT OF
THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA VERSUS THE ECMWF KEEPING IT MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES UNMENTIONABLE
ATTM...AS IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 28 71 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 61 31 73 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 62 31 74 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 64 30 73 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 64 31 72 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 66 29 74 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 31 74 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 63 32 73 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 35 76 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 35 77 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KLUB 201221
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21/12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH DEEP NLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD IN THE NLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
EARLY TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AS WELL.
PROGGED THICKNESSES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS SUGGEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AND HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED MET NUMBERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS. NORTH WINDS TODAY SHOULD BACK TWD W/SW TONIGHT. COOL DOWN
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD BE COUNTERACTED SOME BY
THESE 10KT DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
DE-AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW 0
DEGREES...INDUCING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...A MORE
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE BRUNT OF
THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA VERSUS THE ECMWF KEEPING IT MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES UNMENTIONABLE
ATTM...AS IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 28 71 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 61 31 73 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 62 31 74 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 64 30 73 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 64 31 72 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 66 29 74 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 31 74 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 63 32 73 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 35 76 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 35 77 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/29/07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200919
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH DEEP NLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD IN THE NLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA
EARLY TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AS WELL.
PROGGED THICKNESSES AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS SUGGEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AND HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED MET NUMBERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HIGHS. NORTH WINDS TODAY SHOULD BACK TWD W/SW TONIGHT. COOL DOWN
EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR SHOULD BE COUNTERACTED SOME BY
THESE 10KT DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THUS FAVOR SLIGHTLY WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
DE-AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW 0
DEGREES...INDUCING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER...A MORE
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE BRUNT OF
THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA VERSUS THE ECMWF KEEPING IT MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES UNMENTIONABLE
ATTM...AS IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 28 71 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 61 31 73 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 62 31 74 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 64 30 73 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 64 31 72 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 66 29 74 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 31 74 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 63 32 73 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 35 76 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 35 77 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/29
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200527 AAB
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER
SUNSET BUT REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING WITH
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. FIRE WEATHER HAS BEEN THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TUE DESPITE POOR DEWPOINT RECOVERY. A
SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST WILL HELP DRIVE
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PNHDL AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE DO EXPECT LOWS TO DROP NEAR THE COOLER MET VALUES.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY ON TUE WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHERLY BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON MON.
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN ABRUPT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE EARLY ON ALL THE WHILE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
APPROACHES WEST TX BY THURSDAY. VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER
OF 15 TO 19 DEG C OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WED AND
THUR AS THE REMNANTS OF THE U/A RIDGE TRANSLATE THROUGH...SO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CONTINUE LOOK ON TRACK. SOME CONCERN ABOUT JUST
HOW WARM THURSDAY WILL BE...BUT HAVE KEPT HIGHS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW CONSIDERING DEGREE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE. CHALLENGE HEREAFTER INVOLVES MODEL
DIFFICULTY WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. ECMWF HAD BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT AS OF THE 12Z RUN IT HAS
DECELERATED THE FRONT AND IS NOW A BIT SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS.
NOT QUITE BUYING THIS SUDDEN CHANGE SO HAVE KEPT A SIMILAR FROPA
TIMING FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED ALL THE WHILE TRENDING FRI TEMPS A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. CP AIRMASS ERODES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHALLOW TROF
DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN REGARD TO THE TILT
OF THIS TROF AND THE SUBSEQUENT EXTENT OF COOL AIR IN ITS ADVANCE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN REMAIN VERY POOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 27 62 27 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 27 63 29 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 28 64 29 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 27 65 29 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 29 64 30 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 30 63 30 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 29 65 30 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 31 63 34 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 32 65 35 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 33 63 35 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 192331 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER
SUNSET BUT REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW. CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING WITH
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. FIRE WEATHER HAS BEEN THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TUE DESPITE POOR DEWPOINT RECOVERY. A
SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST WILL HELP DRIVE
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PNHDL AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE DO EXPECT LOWS TO DROP NEAR THE COOLER MET VALUES.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY ON TUE WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHERLY BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON MON.
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN ABRUPT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE EARLY ON ALL THE WHILE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
APPROACHES WEST TX BY THURSDAY. VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER
OF 15 TO 19 DEG C OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WED AND
THUR AS THE REMNANTS OF THE U/A RIDGE TRANSLATE THROUGH...SO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CONTINUE LOOK ON TRACK. SOME CONCERN ABOUT JUST
HOW WARM THURSDAY WILL BE...BUT HAVE KEPT HIGHS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW CONSIDERING DEGREE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE. CHALLENGE HEREAFTER INVOLVES MODEL
DIFFICULTY WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. ECMWF HAD BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT AS OF THE 12Z RUN IT HAS
DECELERATED THE FRONT AND IS NOW A BIT SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS.
NOT QUITE BUYING THIS SUDDEN CHANGE SO HAVE KEPT A SIMILAR FROPA
TIMING FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED ALL THE WHILE TRENDING FRI TEMPS A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. CP AIRMASS ERODES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHALLOW TROF
DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN REGARD TO THE TILT
OF THIS TROF AND THE SUBSEQUENT EXTENT OF COOL AIR IN ITS ADVANCE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN REMAIN VERY POOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 27 62 27 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 27 63 29 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 28 64 29 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 27 65 29 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 29 64 30 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 30 63 30 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 29 65 30 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 31 63 34 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 32 65 35 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 33 63 35 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 192122
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS IN THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING WITH
CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. FIRE WEATHER HAS BEEN THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TUE DESPITE POOR DEWPOINT RECOVERY. A
SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST WILL HELP DRIVE
COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE PNHDL AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WITH THE VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE DO EXPECT LOWS TO DROP NEAR THE COOLER MET VALUES.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUNNY ON TUE WITH READINGS SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHERLY BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN ON MON.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO FEATURE AN ABRUPT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE EARLY ON ALL THE WHILE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE
APPROACHES WEST TX BY THURSDAY. VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER
OF 15 TO 19 DEG C OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WED AND
THUR AS THE REMNANTS OF THE U/A RIDGE TRANSLATE THROUGH...SO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CONTINUE LOOK ON TRACK. SOME CONCERN ABOUT JUST
HOW WARM THURSDAY WILL BE...BUT HAVE KEPT HIGHS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
FOR NOW CONSIDERING DEGREE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE. CHALLENGE HEREAFTER INVOLVES MODEL
DIFFICULTY WITH A POLAR COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY. ECMWF HAD BEEN
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT AS OF THE 12Z RUN IT HAS
DECELERATED THE FRONT AND IS NOW A BIT SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS.
NOT QUITE BUYING THIS SUDDEN CHANGE SO HAVE KEPT A SIMILAR FROPA
TIMING FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED ALL THE WHILE TRENDING FRI TEMPS A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. CP AIRMASS ERODES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHALLOW TROF
DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS DIFFER IN REGARD TO THE TILT
OF THIS TROF AND THE SUBSEQUENT EXTENT OF COOL AIR IN ITS ADVANCE
SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN REMAIN VERY POOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 29 63 30 74 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 29 64 29 72 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 29 65 30 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 30 66 32 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 29 65 33 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 27 65 34 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 31 66 33 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 34 64 32 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 35 66 33 78 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 35 64 34 78 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24/93
000
FXUS64 KLUB 191720
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS
WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THEN RELAX
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
UPDATE...
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH 40-50KT ON AREA PROFILERS AT H8 ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OK. WINDS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AS YOU GO WEST INTO NM
HOWEVER. STRONG JET SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INITIALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF SOME DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS GRADIENT REAMAINS WEEK AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH. STILL SPEEDS TODAY SHOULD BE IN 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE AT THE 20FT LEVEL DURING PEAK HEATING. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WAS
VERY POOR AND RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOCAL
CASE STUDIES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE STARTS WITH THE EXTREME
RH AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS DESPITE LOWER END WINDS. ANOTHER THING
TO CONSIDER IS RECENT TRENDS WHICH HAVE LARGELY BEEN ABSENT OF
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS GIVEN CURRENT FUEL STATE. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL RED FLAG WARNING
BUT DO EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS TO REACH CRITERIA FOR A WHILE.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK WHERE
WINDS COULD BE STRONGEST HOWEVER LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS SO NO ONE IS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN...PROVIDING FOR
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT THEREFORE CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE VALID. HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE 20-FOOT
LEVEL SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS...BUT IF THEY DO REACH
CRITERIA LEVELS...CONFIDENCE FOR THREE HOUR SUSTAINED WINDS IS LOW.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY SIGNS OF FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO EDGE EWD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES AND CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS.
BRIEF COOLDOWN TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT BUT TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS FINALLY BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION TO AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN CALIF COAST. SOLUTION
FAVORS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION FAVORS DRY FCST AND
POSSIBLY A BIT WINDY DEPENDING UPON WHAT LATITUDE THE TROUGH
EXITS.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ECMWF
QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS SOLUTION. PREFER ECMWF ATTM GIVEN COLD
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS. HAVE THUS UNDERCUT MEX NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 69 29 63 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 68 29 64 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 69 29 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 71 30 66 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 71 29 65 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 71 27 65 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 72 31 66 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 70 34 64 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 71 35 66 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 35 64 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KLUB 191609
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1009 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONG WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH 40-50KT ON AREA PROFILERS AT H8 ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OK. WINDS DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY AS YOU GO WEST INTO NM
HOWEVER. STRONG JET SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INITIALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF SOME DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS GRADIENT REAMAINS WEEK AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH. STILL SPEEDS TODAY SHOULD BE IN 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE AT THE 20FT LEVEL DURING PEAK HEATING. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WAS
VERY POOR AND RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOCAL
CASE STUDIES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE STARTS WITH THE EXTREME
RH AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS DESPITE LOWER END WINDS. ANOTHER THING
TO CONSIDER IS RECENT TRENDS WHICH HAVE LARGELY BEEN ABSENT OF
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS GIVEN CURRENT FUEL STATE. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL RED FLAG WARNING
BUT DO EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS TO REACH CRITERIA FOR A WHILE.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF LUBBOCK WHERE
WINDS COULD BE STRONGEST HOWEVER LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS SO NO ONE IS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN...PROVIDING FOR
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT THEREFORE CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE VALID. HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE 20-FOOT
LEVEL SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS...BUT IF THEY DO REACH
CRITERIA LEVELS...CONFIDENCE FOR THREE HOUR SUSTAINED WINDS IS LOW.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY SIGNS OF FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO EDGE EWD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES AND CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS.
BRIEF COOLDOWN TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT BUT TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS FINALLY BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION TO AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN CALIF COAST. SOLUTION
FAVORS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION FAVORS DRY FCST AND
POSSIBLY A BIT WINDY DEPENDING UPON WHAT LATITUDE THE TROUGH
EXITS.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ECMWF
QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS SOLUTION. PREFER ECMWF ATTM GIVEN COLD
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS. HAVE THUS UNDERCUT MEX NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 69 29 63 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 68 29 64 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 69 29 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 71 30 66 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 71 29 65 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 71 27 65 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 72 31 66 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 70 34 64 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 71 35 66 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 35 64 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KLUB 191120
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS
PERSIST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS THE
AMPLIFIED PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN...PROVIDING FOR
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT THEREFORE CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE VALID. HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE 20-FOOT
LEVEL SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS...BUT IF THEY DO REACH
CRITERIA LEVELS...CONFIDENCE FOR THREE HOUR SUSTAINED WINDS IS LOW.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY SIGNS OF FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO EDGE EWD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES AND CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS.
BRIEF COOLDOWN TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT BUT TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS FINALLY BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION TO AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN CALIF COAST. SOLUTION
FAVORS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION FAVORS DRY FCST AND
POSSIBLY A BIT WINDY DEPENDING UPON WHAT LATITUDE THE TROUGH
EXITS.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ECMWF
QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS SOLUTION. PREFER ECMWF ATTM GIVEN COLD
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS. HAVE THUS UNDERCUT MEX NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 69 29 63 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 68 29 64 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 69 29 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 71 30 66 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 71 30 65 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 71 27 65 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 72 31 66 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 70 34 64 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 71 35 66 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 35 64 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190916
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN...PROVIDING FOR
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A BIT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT THEREFORE CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE VALID. HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE 20-FOOT
LEVEL SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS...BUT IF THEY DO REACH
CRITERIA LEVELS...CONFIDENCE FOR THREE HOUR SUSTAINED WINDS IS LOW.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY SIGNS OF FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE TO EDGE EWD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES AND CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS.
BRIEF COOLDOWN TUESDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT BUT TEMPS SHOULD
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS FINALLY BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION TO AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SRN CALIF COAST. SOLUTION
FAVORS A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IN THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION FAVORS DRY FCST AND
POSSIBLY A BIT WINDY DEPENDING UPON WHAT LATITUDE THE TROUGH
EXITS.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ECMWF
QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN GFS SOLUTION. PREFER ECMWF ATTM GIVEN COLD
SOURCE REGION OF THE AIR MASS. HAVE THUS UNDERCUT MEX NUMBERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 69 29 63 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 68 29 64 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 69 29 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 71 30 66 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 71 29 65 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 71 27 65 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 72 31 66 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 70 34 64 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 71 35 66 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 35 64 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 190531
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON
AFTN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY DRY WEATHER AS
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE EAST.
AS THE RIDGE MAKES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO STAY UP MORE
THAN THIS MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK
AGAIN WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ENOUGH OFF THE CAPROCK TO GO ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. JDV
LONG TERM...
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SLIDES OVER THE REGION WITH WED AND
THUR LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS THIS WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE
HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM
FOR THUR NITE THRU FRI. ECMWF HAS CHANGED THE TRACK TO FURTHER
NORTH AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS OPPOSED TO
THE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND CLOSED LOW. GFS REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE
WITH A SIMILAR OPENING OF THE WAVE BUT CARRIES IT OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS. WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST
FOR THUR NITE THROUGH FRI NITE UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM
DECIDES TO DEVELOP.
JORDAN
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS MUCH UNDER
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG. BELIEVE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION AND WE COULD SEE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER THE REGION.
THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES TOWARDS FAVORABLE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. JDV/JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 26 69 28 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 31 67 27 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 30 69 28 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 29 71 26 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 31 72 29 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 29 71 29 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 31 72 28 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 36 69 34 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 34 71 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 36 71 31 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/21
000
FXUS64 KLUB 182137
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY DRY WEATHER AS
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE EAST.
AS THE RIDGE MAKES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO STAY UP MORE
THAN THIS MORNING. HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK
AGAIN WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ENOUGH OFF THE CAPROCK TO GO ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE. JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED REMAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SLIDES OVER THE REGION WITH WED AND
THUR LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS THIS WEEK. MODELS STILL ARE
HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM
FOR THUR NITE THRU FRI. ECMWF HAS CHANGED THE TRACK TO FURTHER
NORTH AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS OPPOSED TO
THE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND CLOSED LOW. GFS REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE
WITH A SIMILAR OPENING OF THE WAVE BUT CARRIES IT OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS. WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST
FOR THUR NITE THROUGH FRI NITE UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM
DECIDES TO DEVELOP.
JORDAN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS MUCH UNDER
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG. BELIEVE THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION AND WE COULD SEE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER THE REGION.
THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES TOWARDS FAVORABLE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. JDV/JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 25 68 28 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 29 67 27 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 27 69 28 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 27 70 26 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 28 71 29 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 27 70 29 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 29 71 28 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 31 70 34 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 31 73 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 32 71 31 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/14
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181740
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KCDS BUT SHOULD REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009/
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM /AND CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH/ ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST IN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT...UPPER AND LOWER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIGRATION AND
BREAKING DOWN OF REX BLOCK RIDGE OVER WRN CONUS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
LOOK GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED HEIGHT...THICKNESS AND LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP
PROGS. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EJECTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM
THE ERN PACIFIC AND HOW IT AFFECTS BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE. TEND
TO THINK GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FAST WHILE ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW AND TOO STRONG WITH THE WAVE.
MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT OPERATIONAL RUN WITH NO SUPPORT
FOR ECMWF. INHERITED FCST AND GFS NOT TOO FAR OFF AND THUS HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES ATTM. WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY NEXT
COUPLE OF RUNS BEGIN TO SHOW BETTER CONTINUITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 25 68 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 63 29 67 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 64 27 69 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 67 27 70 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 28 71 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 67 27 70 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 68 29 71 28 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 70 31 70 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 68 31 73 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 69 32 71 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181120
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. IF CLOUD
COVER WERE TO OCCUR...FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREDOMINATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 25 66 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 63 29 66 26 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 63 27 67 27 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 67 27 68 27 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 67 28 69 28 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 67 27 68 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 68 29 68 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 31 68 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 68 31 71 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 69 31 71 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 180843
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
243 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM /AND CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH/ ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST IN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT...UPPER AND LOWER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MIGRATION AND
BREAKING DOWN OF REX BLOCK RIDGE OVER WRN CONUS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
LOOK GOOD GIVEN EXPECTED HEIGHT...THICKNESS AND LOW/MID LEVEL TEMP
PROGS. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EJECTION OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM
THE ERN PACIFIC AND HOW IT AFFECTS BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE. TEND
TO THINK GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FAST WHILE ECMWF SEEMS TOO SLOW AND TOO STRONG WITH THE WAVE.
MAJORITY OF GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT OPERATIONAL RUN WITH NO SUPPORT
FOR ECMWF. INHERITED FCST AND GFS NOT TOO FAR OFF AND THUS HAVE
MADE FEW CHANGES ATTM. WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH COOLER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOPEFULLY NEXT
COUPLE OF RUNS BEGIN TO SHOW BETTER CONTINUITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 25 68 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 63 29 67 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 64 27 69 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 67 27 70 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 28 71 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 67 27 70 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 68 29 71 28 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 70 31 70 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 68 31 73 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 69 32 71 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 180526
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KCDS
AND KLBB. LIGHT WINDS HAVE BACKED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WILL
GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE/NO CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BROUGHT BRIEF WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. INCREASED DEW POINTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEING USHERED IN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS
IS EXPECTED TO DROP EVEN MORE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP NEAR READINGS SEEN THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA. THIS RIDGE IS BEGINNING ITS SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST
TODAY. FOR TOMORROW...850-700 MB WINDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECT BREEZIEST CONDITIONS TO BE OFF THE
CAPROCK. A QUICK WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE NORTHWEST-
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL SEE A
WARMING DOWNSLOPING WIND. THE WEAKEST EFFECT ON DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE
THE MOST NORTHERLY COMPONENT. ELSEWHERE...A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE WIND COULD SIGNIFICANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
JDV
LONG TERM...
OVERALL FCST THROUGH THURSDAY REMAINS THE SAME...RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE OVER THE REGION WITH THURSDAY PROBABLY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...12Z RUNS DEVELOPED
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS. GFS HAD THE
BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED AND IS NOW
BRINGING A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY FRIDAY. IF
THE CLOSED LOW SCENARIO DOES IN FACT DEVELOP...WE WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO ADD POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME
GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE GET PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY AS THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AND THE GFS REMAINS
MORE PROGRESSIVE.
IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO BOTH MODELS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WITH A CLOSED LOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SUCH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...NLY FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD PULL A PRETTY GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN
A GLANCING BLOW WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
ECMWF...FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 63 25 66 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 24 63 29 66 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 25 63 27 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 24 67 27 68 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 25 67 27 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 26 67 27 68 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 25 68 29 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 30 68 31 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 31 68 31 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 33 69 31 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20
000
FXUS64 KLUB 180021
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KCDS AND
KLBB TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIAL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEFORE 06Z. LITTLE/NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BROUGHT BRIEF WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. INCREASED DEW POINTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEING USHERED IN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS
IS EXPECTED TO DROP EVEN MORE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP NEAR READINGS SEEN THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA. THIS RIDGE IS BEGINNING ITS SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST
TODAY. FOR TOMORROW...850-700 MB WINDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECT BREEZIEST CONDITIONS TO BE OFF THE
CAPROCK. A QUICK WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE NORTHWEST-
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL SEE A
WARMING DOWNSLOPING WIND. THE WEAKEST EFFECT ON DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE
THE MOST NORTHERLY COMPONENT. ELSEWHERE...A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE WIND COULD SIGNIFICANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
JDV
LONG TERM...
OVERALL FCST THROUGH THURSDAY REMAINS THE SAME...RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE OVER THE REGION WITH THURSDAY PROBABLY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...12Z RUNS DEVELOPED
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS. GFS HAD THE
BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED AND IS NOW
BRINGING A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY FRIDAY. IF
THE CLOSED LOW SCENARIO DOES IN FACT DEVELOP...WE WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO ADD POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME
GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE GET PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY AS THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AND THE GFS REMAINS
MORE PROGRESSIVE.
IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO BOTH MODELS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WITH A CLOSED LOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SUCH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...NLY FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD PULL A PRETTY GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN
A GLANCING BLOW WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
ECMWF...FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 21 63 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 60 24 63 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 62 25 63 27 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 63 24 67 27 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 64 25 67 27 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 64 26 67 27 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 25 68 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 63 30 68 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 66 31 68 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 66 33 69 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20/99/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 172141
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BROUGHT BRIEF WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. INCREASED DEW POINTS THIS MORNING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEING USHERED IN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS
IS EXPECTED TO DROP EVEN MORE BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP NEAR READINGS SEEN THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA. THIS RIDGE IS BEGINNING ITS SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST
TODAY. FOR TOMORROW...850-700 MB WINDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...SO EXPECT BREEZIEST CONDITIONS TO BE OFF THE
CAPROCK. A QUICK WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE NORTHWEST-
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TOMORROW...MOST LOCATIONS WILL STILL SEE A
WARMING DOWNSLOPING WIND. THE WEAKEST EFFECT ON DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS WILL HAVE
THE MOST NORTHERLY COMPONENT. ELSEWHERE...A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE WIND COULD SIGNIFICANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
JDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
OVERALL FCST THROUGH THURSDAY REMAINS THE SAME...RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN AND SLIDE OVER THE REGION WITH THURSDAY PROBABLY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...12Z RUNS DEVELOPED
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS. GFS HAD THE
BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WHILE THE ECMWF CHANGED AND IS NOW
BRINGING A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY FRIDAY. IF
THE CLOSED LOW SCENARIO DOES IN FACT DEVELOP...WE WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO ADD POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME
GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE GET PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY AS THIS IS THE
FIRST RUN THAT THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AND THE GFS REMAINS
MORE PROGRESSIVE.
IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO BOTH MODELS BUT
THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WITH A CLOSED LOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SUCH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...NLY FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD PULL A PRETTY GOOD SLUG OF COLD AIR
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN
A GLANCING BLOW WITH TEMPS A BIT COOLER...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
ECMWF...FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 63 25 66 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 24 63 29 66 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 25 63 27 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 24 67 27 68 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 25 67 27 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 26 67 27 68 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 25 68 29 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 30 68 31 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 31 68 31 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 33 69 31 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/14
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