000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201017
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THAT PERIOD. A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH NEARS THE
STATE. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE NATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUED MILD WEATHER PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL SEE PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH THIN
CLOUDS THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO FLOW BACK TOWARD THE STATE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC BASED LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MOISTURE PULLED UP AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WARM WITH
SNOW LEVELS RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET.
EVEN THEN IT IS LIKELY TO BE A RAIN SNOW MIX AT THOSE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO FRIDAY AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSITS THE REGION. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE WEAKENED
THE TROUGH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH MAY LIMIT RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY SO.
AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY A WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS PART OF AN
ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR ABOVE NORMAL TREND. THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A LONG WAVE PATTERN CHANGE THAT BRINGS A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE STATE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...
SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL POSSIBLY PART OF THE
MIX. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MAY CHANGE THIS LONG RANGE FORECAST
SCENARIO YET AGAIN SO WILL KEEP FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK MORE CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 19/0000Z-20/0000Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...VARIABLE MID/HI CLDS AT TIMES ABV 12KFT
AGL ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC WINDS GNLY UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEK. A SURGE OF MOISTURE BY LATE WEDNESDAY WILL RAISE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ON THURSDAY...TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NMEX FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN TO THE AREA
STARTING IN THE GILA WILDERNESS EARLY THURSDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THURS INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A WARM SYSTEM
WITH SNOW LEVELS 9K TO 12K FT MSL SO ANY SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHEST SUMMITS ONLY. IN ADDITION BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY BREEZY THROUGH AS A ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 67 36 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA TX 63 33 68 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 67 34 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 65 32 68 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 48 22 53 33 47 / 0 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 31 67 40 64 / 0 0 0 10 20
SILVER CITY 58 29 61 38 55 / 0 0 0 10 30
DEMING 65 33 67 42 64 / 0 0 0 10 20
LORDSBURG 65 34 66 42 62 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192143
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
242 PM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE BORDERLAND DRY WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...GIVING US A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
DOWN TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE BISECTS THIS
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS WILL MORE OR LESS BE THE LINE OF
DEMARCATION FOR PARTLY CLOUDY V.S. CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM TO THIS LINE FROM THE SOUTH. DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS OR DISAPPEARS TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST
IN RESPONSE TO PACIFIC TROUGH NEARING THE WEST COAST. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER US ALONG WITH THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. GFS
PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...HENCE ONLY MENTIONED
SLIGHT CHANCE FAR WEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT HIGHER POPS INTO
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING 12Z-00Z THURSDAY THE BEST WINDOW
FOR RAIN WITH STRONG PVA AND RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET OVER AREA.
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE END OF PRECIP
AND CLEARING SKIES. AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE WARM AS MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE TROPICAL IN NATURE. GFS SHOWS SNOW LEVELS LIKELY
REMAINING AROUND 9000-10000 FT...THOUGH I DID LOWER IT TO 8000 FT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER AREA FRIDAY FOR CLEARING SKIES. EASTERN
PACIFIC LONG WAVE RIDGE REBUILDS AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
GRADUALLY ERODES WESTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THIS RIDGE. GFS SHOWS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THIS TROUGH FINALLY REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF AREA WITH JUST
WINDS A CONCERN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 19/0000Z-20/0000Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SCT-BKN MID/HI CLDS AT TIMES ABV 10KFT AGL
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SFC WINDS GNLY UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK
WITH ADEQUATE OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. LOOK FOR A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN BY THURSDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN NMEX FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN TO THE AREA STARTING IN THE GILA WILDERNESS
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THURS INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A WARM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS 9K
TO 12K FT MSL SO ANY SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST SUMMITS
ONLY. IN ADDITION BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL
FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN THE MDT TO HIGH RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 37 67 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 35 64 36 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 66 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 63 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 51 25 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 63 34 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 28 60 32 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 10
DEMING 33 65 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 34 64 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/LUNDEEN
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191014
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
314 AM MST MON JAN 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BRING WARM DRY
WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN DRY SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONVERGING THROUGH FRIDAY AND SHOWING PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO. FOR
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH
EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUATION OF
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FLOWING AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT MOST AS LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY.
SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WEST COAST AND
SPREAD EAST WITH UPPER WAVE IN SOUTHERLY BRANCH MOVING
ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY AND ADVANCING ACROSS NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RATHER STRONG DYNAMIC
LIFT VIA DIFFERENTIAL PVA IN CONJUNCTION WITH 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. BACKING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
RAIN WITH SNOW LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET. DEVELOPMENT
OF LEE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LIKELY TO
INDUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS WELL.
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA LATE THURSDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW AND
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGING A RETURN TO
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY MORE
UNCERTAIN AS GFS MOVES DEEP UPPER LOW INTO WEST COAST WHILE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL GO FOR
DRY OUTLOOK AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BRING
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUS THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH
VENTILATION GENERALLY POOR DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER
15 MPH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL GENERATE STRONGER WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH WEST WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH. THUS THE VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE DUE TO
HIGHER WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCING LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. DESPITE INCREASE IN WINDS RED
FLAG CONDITIONS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY AS HUMIDITIES
WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 68 36 68 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 66 34 65 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 34 67 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 65 33 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 23 52 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 32 64 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 61 27 61 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
DEMING 67 32 66 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 65 33 65 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 182201
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
301 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. A
WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE NATION. LOCALLY..THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAY TIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A
NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC BASED TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR THIS EVENT SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAYBE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS OF 8000 FEET OR
HIGHER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LATER FRIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL NEXT WEEKEND THAT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 19/0000Z-20/0000Z...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...SCT-BKN MID/HI CLDS AT TIMES ABV 10KFT AGL
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MINOR BACKDOOR FRONT AGAIN FROM THE
NORTH AFT 06Z WITH NO SIG WX. WINDS NE GNLY UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MINOR BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WX. TEMPS WILL CONT
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH ADEQUATE OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. LOOK
FOR A CHANGE IN OUR STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN AROUND MIDWEEK AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NMEX FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF WETTING RANGE TO THE AREA STARTING
IN THE GILA WILDERNESS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURS INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD
BE A WARM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS 11K TO 12K FT MSL SO ANY SNOW
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST SUMMITS ONLY. IN ADDITION BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN THE
MDT TO HIGH RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 33 68 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 30 66 33 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 30 68 33 66 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 65 32 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 19 52 22 51 21 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 28 64 31 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 22 61 26 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 27 67 31 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 65 32 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/20
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 181049
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
349 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND CAUSE GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS BRING A RETURN OF DRIER WEATHER WEATHER ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH AXIS EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST NEXT TWO
DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING CONTINUED MILD DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO MAY STILL CAUSE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY.
MODELS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCONSISTENCIES AFTER
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATEST GFS AND ECMWF. FOR CONTINUITY WILL
BASE LATER PERIODS MORE ON THE GFS SOLUTION. THUS BELIEVE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH IN SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL ENTER CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY. APPROACH OF SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BACKING AND MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ATTENDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
CWA. IN ADDITION DYNAMIC LIFT WILL INCREASE AS SYSTEM ADVANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH REGION LOCATED IN LEFT FRONT
QUAD OF 100 KT JET BY EARLY THURSDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW LIMITED TO HIGHER
MOUNTAINS DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. DEVELOPMENT OF LEE CYCLONE OVER
HIGH PLAINS ALSO SHOULD BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY.
ONCE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY A ZONAL FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN MORE
SEASONABLY MILD DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ABOVE 15,000 FEET AGL POSSIBLE
OVER SOME AREAS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE DANGERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS WARM DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER COLORADO WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THUS CONDITIONS MAY
APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POOR
VENTILATION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IMPROVING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 64 34 66 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 63 32 65 34 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 64 32 67 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 31 64 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 52 21 53 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 30 63 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 25 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 62 30 66 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 32 64 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/99
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172256
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
356 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MIDWEEK...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND RAIN IN FAR
WEST TEXAS STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE TAP FROM LARGE POOL OF COLDER AIR IN CANADA WHICH
HAS LED TO A PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.A....WILL DIMINISH AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE UPSTREAM WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO A RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING WITH BREAKDOWN OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE
WEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BREAK TO OUR WEATHER WITH CHANCES
FOR A FEW VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAKE A MORE WEST TO EAST TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA. THUS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...AROUND
8000 FEET EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS LATEST SOLUTION TRENDS WEAKEN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. WE MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES...AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING RAMPS UP AND WE SEE SOME MIX-DOWN OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT
WITH APPROACH OF JETSTREAM. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OR
HIGH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...SO
WILL LEAVE EVALUATIONS OF EXTENDED PERIODS FOR REVIEW BY LATER
SHIFTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...MINOR BACK-DOOR FROPA AFTER 06Z WITH SFC
WINDS NE 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 KTS WEST SLOPES/PASSES BECOMING
EAST 5-10 KTS AFT 18Z. LGT OCNL MDT TURBC W SLOPES 06Z-18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINOR BACK-DOOR FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THIS SATURDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WX. TEMPS WILL CONT
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH ADEQUATE OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. LONGER
RANGE FORECASTS HINT OF A CHANGE IN OUR STAGNANT WX PATTERN AFTER
MIDWEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO BRING
BREEZIER WEST WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
BY WED NIGHT INTO THURS NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE AROUND
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 33 62 34 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 31 61 32 65 33 / 10 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 32 62 32 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 29 59 31 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 20 50 21 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 60 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 26 56 25 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 30 60 30 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 31 62 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
22/20
| 
