000
FXUS64 KBMX 201519
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
918 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.UPDATE...MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
DID A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHERN HALF
PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THEY WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND WON`T
AMOUNT TO MUCH OTHER THAN PRETTY TO LOOK AT. OTHER THAN THAT...NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
10/ARM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW
OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HANDLE WITH
NOWCASTS AS ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE VERY BRIEF. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH READINGS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL SECTIONS TODAY AS SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPPER FEATURES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND 20 TO 25 DEGREES SOUTH.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S AND THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
A NICE WARM UP ON FRIDAY BUT ALSO TRANSPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGH SATURDAY UPPER 40S NORTH
TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WILL NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S AND THEN 55 TO 65 ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 35
TO 45.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TCL WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TODAY. EXPECT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY AT ALL SITES. SPEEDS
WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25...HIGHEST NEAR MGM
AND TOI. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AREA WIDE BEFORE 06Z.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL SECTIONS TODAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 201136
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
545 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW
OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HANDLE WITH
NOWCASTS AS ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE VERY BRIEF. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH READINGS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL SECTIONS TODAY AS SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPPER FEATURES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND 20 TO 25 DEGREES SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S AND THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
A NICE WARM UP ON FRIDAY BUT ALSO TRANSPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGH SATURDAY UPPER 40S NORTH
TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WILL NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S AND THEN 55 TO 65 ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 35
TO 45.
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT TCL WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TODAY. EXPECT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY AT ALL SITES. SPEEDS
WILL BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25...HIGHEST NEAR MGM
AND TOI. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AREA WIDE BEFORE 06Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 36 21 47 27 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 36 19 47 26 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 39 20 47 29 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 40 22 51 31 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
CALERA 39 21 48 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 41 19 48 28 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 44 23 50 29 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
TROY 44 21 50 28 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL SECTIONS TODAY.
&&
$$
50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200849
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
245 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW
OVER MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HANDLE WITH
NOWCASTS AS ANYTHING THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE VERY BRIEF. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH READINGS
WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL SECTIONS TODAY AS SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. UPPER FEATURES WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND 20 TO 25 DEGREES SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS
EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S AND THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
A NICE WARM UP ON FRIDAY BUT ALSO TRANSPORT ENOUGH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. HIGH SATURDAY UPPER 40S NORTH
TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BUT WILL NEED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY IN THE 50S AND THEN 55 TO 65 ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS 35
TO 45.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS GUSTY...AND THAT WILL LEAVE LOW IMPACT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF CUMULUS LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...
WITH MAXIMUM COVERAGE RANGING FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
NORTH...TO 40 PERCENT OR LESS IN THE SOUTH. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AND ANY CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET.
/61/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 36 21 47 27 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 36 19 47 26 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 39 20 47 29 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 40 22 51 31 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
CALERA 39 21 48 29 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 41 19 48 28 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 44 23 50 29 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
TROY 44 21 50 28 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL SECTIONS TODAY.
&&
$$
50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200536
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1136 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT KEEPING THOSE GUSTY WINDS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY LOSE SOME OF THEIR GUSTINESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
THAT TIME. BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE AND
ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH NORTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS HUGGING THE GEORGIA STATELINE AND EXPECTED
THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA...WITH NO
RETURNS OR REPORTS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CONTROL. LIKEWISE...SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE ALSO FALLEN. MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS AT ALL LOCATIONS...
BUT LOWS STILL EXPECTED GENERALLY FROM 24 TO 30 AREAWIDE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN
THIS AFTERNOON. REALLY DO NOT THINK SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE FALLING ON
A LARGE SCALE AND GROUND CONDITIONS ARE RATHER DRY. AT THIS TIME...
WILL NOT ADD MENTION FOR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
75/LINHARES
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ROUGHLY
FROM ALEXANDER CITY TO MONTGOMERY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. SEEING LIGHT SNOW REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CLOUD MASS STARTING TO DIMINISH...AND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT ONLY
BRIEF FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. EXPECT WINDS TO
WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S. WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
TOMORROW...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO OUR WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS...TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
AREAWIDE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...EXPECT THE AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY
AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO 50S AND MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
14
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS GUSTY...AND THAT WILL LEAVE LOW IMPACT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF CUMULUS LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...
WITH MAXIMUM COVERAGE RANGING FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
NORTH...TO 40 PERCENT OR LESS IN THE SOUTH. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AND ANY CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3000
FEET.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200407
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...TONIGHT DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT KEEPING THOSE GUSTY WINDS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY LOSE SOME OF THEIR GUSTINESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
THAT TIME. BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE AND
ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH NORTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS HUGGING THE GEORGIA STATELINE AND EXPECTED
THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED INTO GEORGIA...WITH NO
RETURNS OR REPORTS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CONTROL. LIKEWISE...SURFACE DEW POINTS
HAVE ALSO FALLEN. MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS AT ALL LOCATIONS...
BUT LOWS STILL EXPECTED GENERALLY FROM 24 TO 30 AREAWIDE.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN
THIS AFTERNOON. REALLY DO NOT THINK SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE FALLING ON
A LARGE SCALE AND GROUND CONDITIONS ARE RATHER DRY. AT THIS TIME...
WILL NOT ADD MENTION FOR TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
75/LINHARES
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ROUGHLY
FROM ALEXANDER CITY TO MONTGOMERY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. SEEING LIGHT SNOW REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CLOUD MASS STARTING TO DIMINISH...AND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT ONLY
BRIEF FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. EXPECT WINDS TO
WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S. WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
TOMORROW...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO OUR WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS...TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
AREAWIDE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...EXPECT THE AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY
AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO 50S AND MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
14
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES MOVING ACROSS BHM...EET...AND ANB AREAS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVING ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 HEADING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 02Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
GUSTY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS A LOT LIKE WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
THROUGH AND SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO ALABAMA. COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER DECK OF STRATO-CU (BASED
AROUND 3000 OR 4000 FEET) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 200004
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
604 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ROUGHLY
FROM ALEXANDER CITY TO MONTGOMERY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. SEEING LIGHT SNOW REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CLOUD MASS STARTING TO DIMINISH...AND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT ONLY
BRIEF FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. EXPECT WINDS TO
WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S. WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
TOMORROW...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO OUR WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS...TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
AREAWIDE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...EXPECT THE AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY
AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO 50S AND MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
14
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FIRST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED
PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES MOVING ACROSS BHM...EET...AND ANB AREAS. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVING ALONG AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CLEARING WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 HEADING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 02Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
GUSTY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS A LOT LIKE WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
THROUGH AND SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO ALABAMA. COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER DECK OF STRATO-CU (BASED
AROUND 3000 OR 4000 FEET) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE...IF
ANY...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 192121
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
321 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...ROUGHLY
FROM ALEXANDER CITY TO MONTGOMERY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. SEEING LIGHT SNOW REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT SATELLITE
SHOWS THE CLOUD MASS STARTING TO DIMINISH...AND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT ONLY
BRIEF FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. EXPECT WINDS TO
WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S. WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
TOMORROW...EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TO OUR WEST. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS...TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
AREAWIDE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND A WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...EXPECT THE AIRMASS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SLOWLY MODIFY AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY
AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO 50S AND MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
14
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY. WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP AGAIN
MID-MORNING TOMORROW AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG FLOW
ALOFT PERSIST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL SITES.
JD/81
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 24 36 20 45 30 / 10 10 0 0 0
ANNISTON 27 36 21 47 29 / 10 10 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 26 38 22 48 32 / 10 10 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 30 40 24 50 34 / 10 10 0 0 0
CALERA 28 37 25 48 32 / 10 10 0 0 0
AUBURN 24 43 22 47 31 / 10 10 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 30 43 22 51 32 / 10 10 0 0 0
TROY 29 44 20 49 31 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
14/81
000
FXUS64 KBMX 191802
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BLASTING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT A FAIRLY
GOOD CLIP...RUNNING FROM NEAR ANNISTON TO JUST WEST OF MONTGOMERY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT...AS THE COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD.
TEMPTED TO REMOVE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN AGAIN...THEY ARE ONLY SPRINKLES...AND IN THE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IT EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME DROPS COULD FALL. DO NOT
BELIEVE THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TIME TO SWITCH THINGS OVER TO
SNOW IN OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT.
OTHERWISE...HOURLY TEMPS...WINDS...AND SKY COVER NEEDED SOME
TWEAKING. QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH WAVE EFFECTING SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH
WAVE AFFECTING THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
BUMPED US UP INTO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. UPDATES ALREADY SENT.
JD/81
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAIN CONCERN NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY. WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP AGAIN
MID-MORNING TOMORROW AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG FLOW
ALOFT PERSIST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL SITES.
JD/81
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES/COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190855
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
250 AM CST MON JAN 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY
AROUND NOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
SWINGING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. NOT VERY MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TODAY AND THEN MAINLY
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN HALF. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 40S
NORTH AND 50S SOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S. MUCH
COLDER ON TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS 35 TO
45. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN IN THE 20S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN MORE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY SOME MIDDLE
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT WILL BRING LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN-OVERCAST CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
/61/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 45 26 35 20 47 / 10 10 10 0 0
ANNISTON 48 25 35 23 47 / 10 10 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 48 26 37 21 49 / 10 10 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 49 30 39 23 52 / 10 10 10 0 0
CALERA 49 28 38 23 49 / 10 10 10 0 0
AUBURN 52 26 37 23 49 / 10 10 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 56 31 43 21 52 / 10 10 10 0 0
TROY 55 30 40 21 51 / 10 10 10 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190542
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1142 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
JUST SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER TO MATCH WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS. MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE FLURRY AREA TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA DUE TO DRIER MODEL TRENDS...LACK OF FALLING PRECIP
UPSTREAM...AND THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST
CHANCE WILL COME LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE TROF
AXIS SWINGS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY SOME MIDDLE
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT WILL BRING LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF BROKEN-OVERCAST CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190312
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
900 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
JUST SOME SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE OVERNIGHT WEATHER TO MATCH WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS. MID CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT....ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. HAVE REDUCED THE FLURRY AREA TO THE EXTREME NORTHERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA DUE TO DRIER MODEL TRENDS...LACK OF FALLING PRECIP
UPSTREAM...AND THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. BEST
CHANCE WILL COME LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE TROF
AXIS SWINGS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
THIS ONE SHOULD BE DRY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGHOUT.
EXPECTING JUST A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. AS NORTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP ON MONDAY...COLD AIR STRATO-CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH COVERAGE AROUND
60 OT 70 PERCENT.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 190003
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
603 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS CLEARED THE
AREA...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES....TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. NOT MUCH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
A COUPLE CHANCES FOR FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...AND DO NOT SEE ANY REAL CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL COME TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 30S AND LOW 40S. SPEAKING OF TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BRING THE
THE SECOND CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MEEK PWS OF AROUND 0.20 INCHES...BUT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...CREATING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAKENING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS FAR AS TIMING...WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL MORE
CONTINUITY IS SEEN WITHIN MODEL RUNS.
14
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECETD DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT
THIS ONE SHOULD BE DRY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGHOUT.
EXPECTING JUST A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. AS NORTHWEST
WINDS PICK UP ON MONDAY...COLD AIR STRATO-CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH COVERAGE AROUND
60 OT 70 PERCENT.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 182104
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
304 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS CLEARED THE
AREA...WITH BREEZY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES....TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. NOT MUCH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
A COUPLE CHANCES FOR FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...AND DO NOT SEE ANY REAL CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL COME TOMORROW
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 30S AND LOW 40S. SPEAKING OF TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BRING THE
THE SECOND CHANCE FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...INCLUDING THE I-20 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MEEK PWS OF AROUND 0.20 INCHES...BUT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME FLURRIES.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS
SHIFTS EASTWARD...CREATING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAKENING
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS FAR AS TIMING...WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL MORE
CONTINUITY IS SEEN WITHIN MODEL RUNS.
14
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH ONLY LINGERING
MVFR CLOUDS FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR AT TOI BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND
CLEAR THERE AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE AT ALL SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BACKING DOWN A BIT ON CLOUDINESS IN PREVIOUS
SET OF TAFS...DUE TO LARGE DRY SLOT UPSTREAM...AND STINGIER MOISTURE
COMING IN WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS WILL KEEP WINDS VARYING A BIT GENERALLY FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...A TAD GUSTY TODAY...THEN DECREASING AT
SUNSET TONIGHT.
JD/81
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 32 43 26 35 21 / 10 10 10 10 0
ANNISTON 36 43 25 38 24 / 10 10 10 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 38 45 26 36 22 / 10 10 10 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 36 48 30 40 24 / 10 10 10 10 0
CALERA 36 46 28 37 24 / 10 10 10 10 0
AUBURN 37 46 26 38 24 / 10 10 10 10 0
MONTGOMERY 37 51 31 42 22 / 10 10 10 10 0
TROY 38 50 30 42 22 / 10 10 10 10 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
14/81
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181753
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1152 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...AFTERNOON WEATHER AND 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ABRUPT END TO THE CLOUD COVER ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS
BRINGING SUNNY SKIES TO THE BULK OF THE AREA...WHICH NICELY TEMPERS
THE COOL NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES. MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TWEAKS
TO EVERYTHING...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO BEGAN SCALING BACK A
ON CLOUDS A BIT TONIGHT...BEGINNING TO HAVE DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT WE WILL SEE FLURRIES TONIGHT...AS GFS IS COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH THE NAM ON THE SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. WON`T STEAL ANY MORE
THUNDER FROM THE LONG TERM DESK...STAY TUNED FOR FULL AFTERNOON AFD
FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT AND GRIDS IN THE PROCESS.
JD/81
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH ONLY LINGERING
MVFR CLOUDS FOR ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR AT TOI BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT AND
CLEAR THERE AS WELL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE AT ALL SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BACKING DOWN A BIT ON CLOUDINESS IN PREVIOUS
SET OF TAFS...DUE TO LARGE DRY SLOT UPSTREAM...AND STINGIER MOISTURE
COMING IN WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTS WILL KEEP WINDS VARYING A BIT GENERALLY FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...A TAD GUSTY TODAY...THEN DECREASING AT
SUNSET TONIGHT.
JD/81
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 181201
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH STEADY TO
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABRUPT END TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
INDIVIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST...BUT THE
OVERALL CLOUD MASS IT MAKING MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS. AS A
RESULT...WARMING TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY ATTRIBUTED TO WARM ADVECTION.
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD. TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT SIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS IS
INDICATING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM
ARE LESS WINTRY...BUT STILL COLD. LIKE ALWAYS...MOISTURE AND SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARE THE MAJOR ISSUES. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK QUESTIONABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AT ALL LEVELS FOR SNOW. THE GFS HAS A MUCH DEEPER
SATURATED COLUMN BY TUESDAY MORNING...NEARLY 15 THOUSAND FEET DEEP
...WHILE THE NAM IS AROUND HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LESS
THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH FLURRIES FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ANNISTON TO MILLPORT. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN IN THE 20S ANY
SNOW SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM STICKING...BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD CURTAIL TOTALS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK CLEAR AND DRY. HIGHS BY THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S. GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON BRINGING ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...NOW
INDICATING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
12/SIRMON
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AS
EXPECTED...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MGM/TOI WILL EXPERIENCE THE
LONGEST DURATION OF RAIN BEFORE RAPIDLY DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL MENTION AT LEAST SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR BHM/EET/ANB
GENERALLY UNTIL FRONT PASSES AROUND 15Z...OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS
AND VFR AFTER 15Z. MGM/TOI KEPT MENTION IFR/MVFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z
THEN VFR. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL INVADE CENTRAL ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. DID KEEP CEILINGS JUST ABOVE 3K FT AT
THIS TIME. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 10
KTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AFTER 00Z.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 47 29 43 26 36 / 40 10 10 10 20
ANNISTON 48 29 43 25 36 / 50 10 10 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 48 29 45 26 37 / 40 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 54 33 48 30 43 / 30 10 10 10 10
CALERA 51 31 46 28 39 / 50 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 50 28 46 26 40 / 70 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 57 35 51 31 45 / 60 0 10 10 10
TROY 57 33 50 30 44 / 70 0 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 180924
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH STEADY TO
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S. UPSTREAM IN
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ABRUPT END TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE TO EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
INDIVIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TOWARD THE EAST...BUT THE
OVERALL CLOUD MASS IT MAKING MUCH SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESS. AS A
RESULT...WARMING TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY ATTRIBUTED TO WARM ADVECTION.
DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST...READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY BUT WIDESPREAD. TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT SIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS IS
INDICATING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LITHE SNOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM
ARE LESS WINTRY...BUT STILL COLD. LIKE ALWAYS...MOISTURE AND SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ARE THE MAJOR ISSUES. THE COLD AIR DOES NOT
LOOK QUESTIONABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AT ALL LEVELS FOR SNOW. THE GFS HAS A MUCH DEEPER
SATURATED COLUMN BY TUESDAY MORNING...NEARLY 15 THOUSAND FEET DEEP
...WHILE THE NAM IS AROUND HALF THAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LESS
THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH FLURRIES FOR THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ANNISTON TO MILLPORT. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN IN THE 20S ANY
SNOW SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM STICKING...BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD CURTAIL TOTALS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK CLEAR AND DRY. HIGHS BY THURSDAY SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S. GUIDANCE HAS PULLED BACK ON BRINGING ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...NOW
INDICATING A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
12/SIRMON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLOUDS REMAIN THICK...ALTHOUGH LOWERING PROCESS HAS PAUSED FOR A
BIT. RADAR LOOPS (AS OF 0530Z) BEGINNING TO SHOW RAIN INCREASING IN
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO ALABAMA. THIS WAS
FORECAST NICELY BY THE MODELS...AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS IT SHIFTS EAST. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME LOWER CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH I HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOWERING BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WHERE CEILINGS DO GET BELOW 1000
FEET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPICT RAPID DRYING AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS (TO SCATTERED CLOUDS) IN THE TAFS.
/61/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 47 29 43 26 36 / 40 10 10 10 20
ANNISTON 48 29 43 25 36 / 50 10 10 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 48 29 45 26 37 / 40 10 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 54 33 48 30 43 / 30 10 10 10 10
CALERA 51 31 46 28 39 / 50 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 50 28 46 26 40 / 70 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 57 35 51 31 45 / 60 0 10 10 10
TROY 57 33 50 30 44 / 70 0 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 180535
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY STEADY AS WAA TRIES TO COUNTER DIURNAL COOLING
EFFECTS. CHANGED WORDING OF THE WEATHER TO INDICATE THAT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO MAKE SURE WE GET AND STAY
ABOVE FREEZING TO AVOID ANY ICY PRECIP ISSUES.
17/KLAWS
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLOUDS REMAIN THICK...ALTHOUGH LOWERING PROCESS HAS PAUSED FOR A
BIT. RADAR LOOPS (AS OF 0530Z) BEGINNING TO SHOW RAIN INCREASING IN
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO ALABAMA. THIS WAS
FORECAST NICELY BY THE MODELS...AND HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS IT SHIFTS EAST. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME LOWER CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH I HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
LOWERING BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
NEAR/JUST AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WHERE CEILINGS DO GET BELOW 1000
FEET...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.
MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPICT RAPID DRYING AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS (TO SCATTERED CLOUDS) IN THE TAFS.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 180353
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY STEADY AS WAA TRIES TO COUNTER DIURNAL COOLING
EFFECTS. CHANGED WORDING OF THE WEATHER TO INDICATE THAT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TO MAKE SURE WE GET AND STAY
ABOVE FREEZING TO AVOID ANY ICY PRECIP ISSUES.
17/KLAWS
&&
AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ONE BATCH OF PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT 00Z...MOST OF IT WAS LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF
BHM AND ANB. MOST OF THE PRECIP WAS IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET HERE AND THERE...AND
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WELL NORTH OF ANB.
IT APPEARS THIS BATCH OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER GOOD SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS
SHOULD IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CEILINGS DOWN BELOW 1000 FEET. SINCE THE
NEAR GROUND AIRMASS IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY...AND THE RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO HEAVY...VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE 6
MILES.
THE NEXT SURGE OF DRY AIR COMES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I WENT WITH THE
MORE OPTIMISTIC NAM MODEL FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH INDICATES
PARTIAL (AT LEAST) CLEARING.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 172356
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
556 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND SEEING WEAK MOISTURE RECOVERY. ALTHOUGH...DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AN 8-10 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS
PRODUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THIS DECK HAS ALSO PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO SPREAD
INTO. TEMPERATURES THERE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE ORGANIZED LIGHT RAIN AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
MAIN AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR AFTER 7 AM...AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE. SATURATED LAYER WARMS QUICKLY TO ABOVE
FREEZING...AND EVEN WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING...PROFILES REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FROZEN PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...AND MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED WITH EACH IMPULSE...BUT WILL CARRY FLURRIES ACROSS
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY.
14
&&
AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ONE BATCH OF PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. AT 00Z...MOST OF IT WAS LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF
BHM AND ANB. MOST OF THE PRECIP WAS IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SLEET HERE AND THERE...AND
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WELL NORTH OF ANB.
IT APPEARS THIS BATCH OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER GOOD SWATH OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS
SHOULD IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CEILINGS DOWN BELOW 1000 FEET. SINCE THE
NEAR GROUND AIRMASS IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY...AND THE RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO HEAVY...VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY AT OR ABOVE 6
MILES.
THE NEXT SURGE OF DRY AIR COMES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I WENT WITH THE
MORE OPTIMISTIC NAM MODEL FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH INDICATES
PATIAL (AT LEAST) CLEARING.
/61/
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 172109
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
309 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS HAVE TURNED SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND SEEING WEAK MOISTURE RECOVERY. ALTHOUGH...DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AN 8-10 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS
PRODUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THIS DECK HAS ALSO PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WERE SLOWER TO SPREAD
INTO. TEMPERATURES THERE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST
TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY
TO MORE ORGANIZED LIGHT RAIN AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
MAIN AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR AFTER 7 AM...AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AT THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...A SMALL CHANCE OF A LIGHT
RAIN/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE. SATURATED LAYER WARMS QUICKLY TO ABOVE
FREEZING...AND EVEN WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING...PROFILES REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FROZEN PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE STEADY OR
SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE MID 50S...AND MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL
BE QUITE LIMITED WITH EACH IMPULSE...BUT WILL CARRY FLURRIES ACROSS
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. A SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY.
14
&&
AVIATION...18Z TERMINAL DISCUSSION.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z AT ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AT 12Z OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AROUND 9 KTS BY 18Z.
CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH MVFR BECOMING LIKELY GENERALLY
BETWEEN 04-06Z FOR TCL/BHM/EET/ANB. IT WILL TAKE A BIT MORE TIME FOR
THE CLOUDS TO LOWER AT MGM/TOI AND THINK IT WILL BE AROUND 09Z FOR
MVFR. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CLOUDS EVEN LOWER FOR THE NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AND IFR CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 07-09Z. DID MENTION RAIN
IN THESE IFR CEILINGS...BUT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT AND ONLY DROPPED VIS TO 6SM AT THIS TIME.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER
06Z AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASE.
JD/81
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 36 46 27 41 25 / 60 40 10 10 10
ANNISTON 37 47 27 41 25 / 60 50 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 39 47 27 43 27 / 60 40 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 40 51 31 46 27 / 60 40 10 10 10
CALERA 40 49 28 44 29 / 60 50 10 10 10
AUBURN 37 49 27 44 27 / 30 60 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 40 55 32 49 28 / 30 60 10 10 10
TROY 38 55 30 47 26 / 20 60 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
14/81
| 
