000
AGUS74 KFWR 151713
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
VALID JANUARY 15 THROUGH JANUARY 20
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A trough of low pressure is located across the Great Lakes region
southward into the southern U.S. Meanwhile, a large ridge of high
pressure is situated off the coast of northern California. The
result of these systems is a strong northwesterly upper air flow
into the WGRFC area. Little to no moisture is able to get into our
region with this type of flow pattern, thus dry weather is forecast
to continue over most of the WGRFC area. Within the northwesterly
upper air flow there will be a couple of upper air disturbances
passing through the next few days. Each disturbance will have
another cold front accompanying it which will reinforce the cold dry
air over our region. However, the strongest push of arctic air is
expected to be northeast of the WGRFC area.
A strong surface high pressure system is located north of the WGRFC
area this morning. Easterly surface winds with higher moisture
levels have developed over deep south Texas and adjacent areas of
Mexico. As this moister air continues to move inland, it will be
lifted by an advancing cold front and by higher terrain. Therefore
light rain has begun to develop over deep south Texas and northeast
Mexico. Some of the rain could spread as far west as the Texas Big
Bend region by tonight. The best chances for measurable rain will
stay south of the border. The light rain is forecast to continue
through Friday but it should be confined to Mexico. By Saturday the
next cold front will be arriving to the lower valley, thus the
chances for light rain will continue. The light rain is forecast to
continue through Sunday along and ahead of this front near the Gulf
coast before ending by Monday morning.
The trough and ridge are forecast to move slightly eastward starting
Sunday and continuing into Monday and Tuesday. This movement will
not lead to a great deal of change in our weather into early next
week, as it will remain dry. If anything, a warming trend will
begin next week over the WGRFC area as a result of the high pressure
system building over the Rocky Mountains.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over old Mexico to the south
and southeast of Falcon Reservoir. Lighter amounts of MAP are
forecast over much of northeast Mexico and adjacent areas of deep
south Texas from east of the Texas Big Bend to south of Del Rio to
north of Brownsville.
For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over old Mexico south of Falcon Reservoir.
Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over much of northeast Mexico.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over deep south Texas through the middle Texas Gulf
coast. No other rainfall is forecast over the WGRFC area.
For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast from deep south Texas through the upper Texas Gulf
coast into southern Louisiana. No other rainfall is forecast over
the WGRFC area.
The rainfall which is forecast over the next five days will be
insufficient to produce river flooding. In fact, drought conditions
continue to expand over Texas, especially from southeast of San
Angelo through the Austin/San Antonio areas southeastward to
northeast of Corpus Christi.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All rivers within the WGRFC area are currently within banks, with
most locations at or below baseflow conditions. No significant
rainfall is forecast over the next five days; therefore, baseflow
conditions will continue.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/fop/wgrfcfop.html
MPE Precipitation Estimates:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/precip/html/mpe_estimates.shtml
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/hydromet/qpf/qpfpage.html
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml
STORY
$$
000
AGUS74 KFWR 141709
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
VALID JANUARY 14 THROUGH JANUARY 19
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A trough of low pressure is located across the Great Lakes region
southward into the southeastern U.S. Meanwhile, a large ridge of
high pressure is situated off the coast of northern California. The
result of these systems is a strong northwesterly upper air flow
into the WGRFC area. Little to no moisture is able to get into our
region with this type of flow pattern, thus dry weather is forecast
to continue. The trough and ridge are forecast to move slightly
eastward starting Sunday and continuing into Monday, but this slight
movement will not lead to a great deal of change in our weather the
next 5 days.
Within the northwesterly upper air flow there will be a couple of
upper air disturbances passing through. Each disturbance will have
another cold front accompanying it which will reinforce the cold dry
air over our region. However, the strongest push of arctic air is
expected to be northeast of the WGRFC area. The cold front which
passes through Texas Sunday morning may produce a few light showers
along the Texas Gulf coast Sunday morning.
With a strong surface high pressure system located to our north by
Thursday, easterly surface winds with higher moisture levels will
develop over deep south Texas and adjacent areas of Mexico. As this
moister air is forced inland and lifted by higher terrain, light
rain is forecast to develop late Thursday over northeast Mexico,
with some of the rain possibly getting as far north as the lower Rio
Grande valley of deep south Texas. The best chances for measurable
rain will stay south of the border. The light rain is forecast to
continue through Friday, but should be confined to Mexico by
Saturday before it dissipates.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over old Mexico to the southwest of Falcon Reservoir.
Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over much of northeast Mexico
and adjacent areas of deep south Texas from west of Del Rio through
Eagle Pass to Brownsville.
For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over old Mexico just south southwest of Falcon Reservoir.
Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over much of northeast Mexico.
For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over deep south Texas through the upper Texas Gulf
coast into southern Louisiana. No other rainfall is forecast over
the WGRFC area.
The rainfall which is forecast over the next five days will be
insufficient to produce river flooding. In fact, drought conditions
continue to expand over Texas, especially from the Austin/San
Antonio areas westward to north of Del Rio.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All rivers within the WGRFC area are currently within banks, with
most locations at or below baseflow conditions. No significant
rainfall is forecast over the next five days; therefore, baseflow
conditions will prevail on area rivers.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/fop/wgrfcfop.html
MPE Precipitation Estimates:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/precip/html/mpe_estimates.shtml
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/hydromet/qpf/qpfpage.html
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml
STORY
$$
000
AGUS74 KFWR 131640
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2009
VALID JANUARY 13 THROUGH JANUARY 18
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A sharp trough of low pressure is located along the Mississippi River
this morning. Meanwhile, a large ridge of high pressure is situated
off the coast of northern California. The result of these systems
is a strong northwesterly upper air flow into the WGRFC area.
Little to no moisture is able to get into our region with this type
of flow pattern, thus dry weather is forecast to continue. The
trough and ridge are forecast to move slightly eastward by Sunday,
but this slight movement will not lead to a great deal of change in
our weather the next 5 days.
Within the northwesterly upper air flow there will be a couple of
upper air disturbances passing through. Each disturbance will have
another cold front accompanying it which will reinforce the cold dry
air over our region. However, the strongest push of arctic air is
expected to be northeast of the WGRFC area.
With a strong surface high pressure system located to our north later
this week, easterly surface winds with higher moisture levels will
develop over deep south Texas and adjacent areas of Mexico. As this
moister air is forced inland and lifted by higher terrain, light
rain is forecast to develop late Thursday over northeast Mexico,
with some of the rain possibly getting as far north as the lower Rio
Grande valley. The light rain is forecast to continue through
Friday into Saturday, but the best chances for measurable rain will
stay south of the border.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over old Mexico to the southwest of Falcon Reservoir.
Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over much of northeast Mexico
and adjacent areas of deep south Texas from Eagle Pass to
Brownsville.
For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over old Mexico just west of Falcon Reservoir. Lighter
amounts of MAP are forecast over much of northeast Mexico and
adjacent areas of deep south Texas from Eagle Pass to Brownsville.
The rainfall which is forecast over the next five days will be
insufficient to produce river flooding.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All rivers within the WGRFC area are currently within banks, with
most locations at or below baseflow conditions. No significant
rainfall is forecast over the next five days; therefore, baseflow
conditions will prevail on area rivers.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/fop/wgrfcfop.html
MPE Precipitation Estimates:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/precip/html/mpe_estimates.shtml
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/hydromet/qpf/qpfpage.html
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml
STORY
$$
|
