[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 152354
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES USHERING IN THE ARCTIC AIR. THE CENTER OF
THIS AIR MASS...THE ARCTIC HIGH...BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY. THE NEXT
CLIPPER IS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP IN THE COLD
ADVECTION THAT STILL CONTINUES THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS...BY THE
START OF THE PERIOD...ONLY LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE WEST THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF THE MEAGER HEATING...AND A DECREASE IN
CLOUDS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EVEN
THERE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CANCEL THE SNOW ADVISORY WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ONLY EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BREAK A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SLOW EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL END
EARLY.
NOW FOR THE BIG DEAL...TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON CLEARING...WIND...AND SNOW COVER...AND CHANGES IN THE
TEMPS ALOFT. SNOW COVER RATHER MEAGER. CLOUDS...WINDS AND TEMPS
ALOFT WILL BE THE BIG FACTOR. LOOKS LIKE THE WEST WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY...THEN CENTRAL...AND FINALLY THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STAY BASICALLY CLOUDY.
WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WILL AGAIN GO A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE...AND WITH WINDS STAYING FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUES IN THOSE
COUNTIES ALREADY UNDER ONE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE REMAINING KENTUCKY
COUNTIES AND CALHOUN COUNTY IN WV. THUS...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO OR
BELOW. FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MB DO NOT CHANGE MUCH AT
ALL THU FRIDAY...BUT MEAGER SURFACE HEATING UNDER LOTS OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP RECOVER TEMPS INTO THE TEENS. STILL...BELOW MOST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE. MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
INVADE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. H850 TEMPS WILL BE RISING...BUT NOT IN A
STRONG WAY AS FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK AND TURNS SW VERY LATE.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED COLDER MAV IN THE EAST...AND WENT AT OR A TOUCH
ABOVE MOS IN THE WEST WITH BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER CLOUDS.
HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SW FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST...ALLOWING
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NEXT IN SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
CLIPPERS DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
WARM FRONT SETS UP OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND WHAT LITTLE LIFT/MOISTURE
THERE IS REMAINS WITH IT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE THICKENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS. KEPT VERY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A
TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER 18Z...AS I CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP
STREAKING IN ON FASTER FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE FALLING
FROM A MID DECK. WENT WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER END OF
MOS...FIGURING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ONLY GIVE GROUND GRUDGINGLY.
H500 SHORT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. SLOWER/STRONGER
TREND SEEN ON MODELS...GFS LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE/STRONGER LIFT REMAINS NORTH AS SURFACE LOW
CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN NO
MOISTURE HELP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS NORTHERN STREAM RULES.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIRMASS GETS REINFORCED BRIEFLY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE LEVEL OF
OUR CURRENT AIRMASS. COULD BE A SHORT ROUND OF UPSLOPE ON THE BACK
SIDE AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
THE AREA IN A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES EVERY
ONE OR TWO DAYS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY MONDAY WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
IN CONTROL FRIDAY. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS...LOCALLY IFR VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER
00Z...BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT STILL MAINLY MVFR WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER
12Z MOSTLY VFR.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
IFR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT THE AREA...IRONICALLY MUCH LIKE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DESPITE THIS BEING THE COLDEST AFTERNOON OF
THE YEAR SO FAR...WILL QUICKLY BECOME FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN
FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST. OTHERWISE ANY PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU
OUGHT TO MIX OUT FRI MORNING AT THE LATEST. W FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE W.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ007>011-017>020-028>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JKF/CL/JMV/TRM
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JKF
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 152049
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...ONLY A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIP IN THE COLD
ADVECTION THAT STILL CONTINUES THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THUS...BY THE
START OF THE PERIOD...ONLY LINGERING FLURRIES ACROSS THE WEST THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF THE MEAGER HEATING...AND A DECREASE IN
CLOUDS AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...EVEN
THERE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CANCEL THE SNOW ADVISORY WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. ONLY EXPECT ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BREAK A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
SLOW EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WEAK COLD
ADVECTION. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL END
EARLY.
NOW FOR THE BIG DEAL...TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DEPEND ON CLEARING...WIND...AND SNOW COVER...AND CHANGES IN THE
TEMPS ALOFT. SNOW COVER RATHER MEAGER. CLOUDS...WINDS AND TEMPS
ALOFT WILL BE THE BIG FACTOR. LOOKS LIKE THE WEST WILL BE CLEARING
EARLY...THEN CENTRAL...AND FINALLY THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STAY BASICALLY CLOUDY.
WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...WILL AGAIN GO A BIT
BELOW GUIDANCE...AND WITH WINDS STAYING FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUES IN THOSE
COUNTIES ALREADY UNDER ONE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE REMAINING KENTUCKY
COUNTIES AND CALHOUN COUNTY IN WV. THUS...TEMPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO OR
BELOW. FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MB DO NOT CHANGE MUCH AT
ALL THU FRIDAY...BUT MEAGER SURFACE HEATING UNDER LOTS OF SUNSHINE
WILL HELP RECOVER TEMPS INTO THE TEENS. STILL...BELOW MOST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE. MIDLEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE ZONAL WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
INVADE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. H850 TEMPS WILL BE RISING...BUT NOT IN A
STRONG WAY AS FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK AND TURNS SW VERY LATE.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED COLDER MAV IN THE EAST...AND WENT AT OR A TOUCH
ABOVE MOS IN THE WEST WITH BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER CLOUDS.
HIGH MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND SW FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST...ALLOWING
FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NEXT IN SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF
CLIPPERS DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
WARM FRONT SETS UP OFF TO OUR NORTH...AND WHAT LITTLE LIFT/MOISTURE
THERE IS REMAINS WITH IT. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE THICKENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS. KEPT VERY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR A
TOUCH OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER 18Z...AS I CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIP
STREAKING IN ON FASTER FLOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE FALLING
FROM A MID DECK. WENT WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER END OF
MOS...FIGURING ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ONLY GIVE GROUND GRUDGINGLY.
H500 SHORT DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. SLOWER/STRONGER
TREND SEEN ON MODELS...GFS LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT.
BULK OF THE MOISTURE/STRONGER LIFT REMAINS NORTH AS SURFACE LOW
CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONCE AGAIN NO
MOISTURE HELP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS NORTHERN STREAM RULES.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIRMASS GETS RENIFORCED BRIEFLY...BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE LEVEL OF
OUR CURRENT AIRMASS. COULD BE A SHORT ROUND OF UPSLOPE ON THE BACK
SIDE AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
THE AREA IN A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES EVERY
ONE OR TWO DAYS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY MONDAY WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
IN CONTROL FRIDAY. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS...LOCALLY IFR VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER
00Z...BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT STILL MAINLY MVFR WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER
12Z MOSTLY VFR.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR WVZ007>011-017>020-028>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JKF/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JKF
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 151947
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
247 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE...HAVE TWEAKED HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DOWNWARD. IN ADDITION...STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE
A FETCH OFF THE LAKES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLACE WHERE FETCH SETS UP
IN UNCLEAR. HAVE WIDENED THE AREA TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE KICKING IN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN. RIGHT
NOW THOSE BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE REALLY BLOWING IT
AROUND.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...IMPACTING CENTRAL WV AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO. IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY JUST
STABILIZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR...FOR MOST AREAS
SAVE THE MOUNTAINS IN NRN WV. WITH THE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. HAVE GENERALLY RUN TOWARD THE LOWEST
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DID TEMPER THE NRN MOUNTAINS A LITTLE SINCE THE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND. BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND
HANGING AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE AREA SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
OHIO...EASTERN KY...NRN WV AND THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS START TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER SO WILL DISREGARD IT. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...SO WILL RUN TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING
THE AREA IN A FAST WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES EVERY
ONE OR TWO DAYS.
DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY MONDAY WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NEXT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL RIDGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS DURING THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
IN CONTROL FRIDAY. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS...LOCALLY IFR VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER
00Z...BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT STILL MAINLY MVFR WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER
12Z MOSTLY VFR.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020-028>040-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR KYZ101-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JKF
AVIATION...JKF/JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 151815
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
105 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE...HAVE TWEAKED HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DOWNWARD. IN ADDITION...STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE
A FETCH OFF THE LAKES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLACE WHERE FETCH SETS UP
IN UNCLEAR. HAVE WIDENED THE AREA TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE KICKING IN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN. RIGHT
NOW THOSE BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE REALLY BLOWING IT
AROUND.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...IMPACTING CENTRAL WV AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO. IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY JUST
STABILIZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR...FOR MOST AREAS
SAVE THE MOUNTAINS IN NRN WV. WITH THE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. HAVE GENERALLY RUN TOWARD THE LOWEST
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DID TEMPER THE NRN MOUNTAINS A LITTLE SINCE THE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND. BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND
HANGING AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE AREA SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
OHIO...EASTERN KY...NRN WV AND THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS START TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER SO WILL DISREGARD IT. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...SO WILL RUN TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL BE
IN CONTROL FRIDAY. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS...LOCALLY IFR VSBY IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER
00Z...BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT STILL MAINLY MVFR WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER
12Z MOSTLY VFR.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020-028>040-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR KYZ101-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 151527
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1027 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE...HAVE TWEAKED HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON DOWNWARD. IN ADDITION...STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE
A FETCH OFF THE LAKES. HOWEVER...EXPECT PLACE WHERE FETCH SETS UP
IN UNCLEAR. HAVE WIDENED THE AREA TO COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE KICKING IN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN. RIGHT
NOW THOSE BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE REALLY BLOWING IT
AROUND.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...IMPACTING CENTRAL WV AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO. IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY JUST
STABILIZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR...FOR MOST AREAS
SAVE THE MOUNTAINS IN NRN WV. WITH THE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. HAVE GENERALLY RUN TOWARD THE LOWEST
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DID TEMPER THE NRN MOUNTAINS A LITTLE SINCE THE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND. BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND
HANGING AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE AREA SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
OHIO...EASTERN KY...NRN WV AND THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS START TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER SO WILL DISREGARD IT. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...SO WILL RUN TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO TH REGION AND THE MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND IS BEING SQUEEZED OUT BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...WHEN THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH
THAT THE CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE BRIEFLY TO VFR...WHILE STILL SEEING
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AROUND 16Z...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND SOME AND THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN NEWD...MOVING OUT OF NERN
KY BACK ACROSS WV. WITH THAT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE COLD
ADVECTION STILL ON GOING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS THE MOISTURE AGAIN SHALLOWS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NERN MOUNTAINS BY 6Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER 06Z
AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN AND DISSIPATE.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020-028>040-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR KYZ101-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 151112
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
612 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE KICKING IN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN. RIGHT
NOW THOSE BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE REALLY BLOWING IT
AROUND.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...IMPACTING CENTRAL WV AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO. IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY JUST
STABILIZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR...FOR MOST AREAS
SAVE THE MOUNTAINS IN NRN WV. WITH THE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. HAVE GENERALLY RUN TOWARD THE LOWEST
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DID TEMPER THE NRN MOUNTAINS A LITTLE SINCE THE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND. BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND
HANGING AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE AREA SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
OHIO...EASTERN KY...NRN WV AND THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS START TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER SO WILL DISREGARD IT. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...SO WILL RUN TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO TH REGION AND THE MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND IS BEING SQUEEZED OUT BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z...WHEN THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE BRIEFLY TO VFR...WHILE STILL SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AROUND 16Z...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND SOME AND THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN NEWD...MOVING OUT OF NERN
KY BACK ACROSS WV. WITH THAT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE COLD
ADVECTION STILL ON GOING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS THE MOISTURE AGAIN SHALLOWS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NERN MOUNTAINS BY 6Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER 06Z
AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN AND DISSIPATE.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020-028>040-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR KYZ101-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 151112
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
612 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE KICKING IN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN. RIGHT
NOW THOSE BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE REALLY BLOWING IT
AROUND.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...IMPACTING CENTRAL WV AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO. IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY JUST
STABILIZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR...FOR MOST AREAS
SAVE THE MOUNTAINS IN NRN WV. WITH THE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. HAVE GENERALLY RUN TOWARD THE LOWEST
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DID TEMPER THE NRN MOUNTAINS A LITTLE SINCE THE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND. BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND
HANGING AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE AREA SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
OHIO...EASTERN KY...NRN WV AND THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS START TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER SO WILL DISREGARD IT. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...SO WILL RUN TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO TH REGION AND THE MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND IS BEING SQUEEZED OUT BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z...WHEN THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE BRIEFLY TO VFR...WHILE STILL SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AROUND 16Z...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND SOME AND THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN NEWD...MOVING OUT OF NERN
KY BACK ACROSS WV. WITH THAT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE COLD
ADVECTION STILL ON GOING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS THE MOISTURE AGAIN SHALLOWS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NERN MOUNTAINS BY 6Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER 06Z
AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN AND DISSIPATE.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020-028>040-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR KYZ101-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 151015
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
515 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE KICKING IN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN. RIGHT
NOW THOSE BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE REALLY BLOWING IT
AROUND.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...IMPACTING CENTRAL WV AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO. IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY JUST
STABILIZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR...FOR MOST AREAS
SAVE THE MOUNTAINS IN NRN WV. WITH THE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO. HAVE GENERALLY RUN TOWARD THE LOWEST
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DID TEMPER THE NRN MOUNTAINS A LITTLE SINCE THE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND. BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND
HANGING AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE AREA SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
OHIO...EASTERN KY...NRN WV AND THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH NOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS START TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER SO WILL DISREGARD IT. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...SO WILL RUN TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA NOW...HAVING MOVE PASSED CRW
IN THE LAST HOUR AND SHOULD CROSS CKB BY 630Z AND BKW AND EKN
BETWEEN 730Z AND 8Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A GOOD BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS LOOKING AT RADAR THAT THERE
WILL BE A SHORT BREAK BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN SO TRIED TO SHOW A BRIEF BREAK WITH VFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. THEN SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...WHEN THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE BRIEFLY TO VFR...WHILE STILL SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AROUND 16Z...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND SOME AND THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN NEWD...MOVING OUT OF NERN
KY BACK ACROSS WV. WITH THAT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE COLD
ADVECTION STILL ON GOING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS THE MOISTURE AGAIN SHALLOWS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NERN MOUNTAINS BY 6Z FRIDAY.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020-028>040-046-047.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR KYZ101-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 150634
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE...HELD TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH 03Z WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.
REST SAME...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A STRONG LOW CENTER EASTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE THIS EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO EAST BAND OF
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TRACK.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE GOING ON IN THE WARM SECTOR. NICE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
OVERRUNNING BAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES
FROM SNOW BAND LIFTING UP AND AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW...HIGH END
SNOW ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST
THRU THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INITIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...OR
POSSIBLY TWO IN SOME AREAS...IN THE LOWLANDS. LATER TONIGHT..WE
BEGIN TO LOSE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SNOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE GOOD UPSLOPE KICKS IN BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.
HIGH PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY BUILDS IN THURSDAY FROM THE WEST...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART WITH A TRAJECTORY STILL
SOMEWHAT OFF THE LAKES. THUS...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE LOWLANDS...CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER DECREASES.
FOR TEMPERATURES...AS SHOWN LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
ARCTIC AIR WELL. GIVEN THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MB...WILL
GO BELOW ALL THE GUIDANCE. STILL...NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORESEEN AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH EXCEPT ON RIDGETOPS FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES DO NOT MOVE MUCH AS TEMPS
ALOFT EVEN GET A BIT COLDER..WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST H850 AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. UNUSUAL FACTOR FOR
OUR AREA...THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY COLDER THAN THE TEMPERATURES
REQUIRED FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THUS...ALTHOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTIFUL AT THE START...THE SNOW WILL BECOME QUITE
DRY AND FINE...RESULTING IN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS DUE TO UPSLOPE...BUT EXPECT LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL START TO
WANE AFTER 06Z WITH PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MOS
VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD. DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
PLUMMETING DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...AT LEAST EARLY...AND 5-10KT
WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO MINS FROM AROUND
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ON THE
RIDGES. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH A
SIZABLE AREA WITH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. STILL A BIT EARLY TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIRD
PERIOD...BUT CURRENT HWO HANDLES THINGS WELL.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING UP AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY IN
THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. WITH -20C H850 TEMPS LINGERING...COLDEST
MAX T VALUES IN SEVERAL YEARS WILL BE SEEN...MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND
20 DEGREES. LIKED THE MAV HERE...AND COULD EVEN SEE VALUES A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER.
CLEAR START FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CONUNDRUM IS HOW QUICKLY MID/HI
CLOUDS BUILD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER...AND THE
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS...PARTICULARLY GFS...SEEM
APPROPRIATELY QUICK ADVANCING NEXT CLIPPER LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY 00Z SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO SPILL IN BY 06Z IN SWIFT FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME THICKER MID CLOUD
ARRIVING BY 12Z. ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...DO NOT
FORESEE A BIG OVERNIGHT PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES. PROTECTED VALLEYS
LIKE EKN SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN...AND A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. TO THE
WEST...VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER.
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED CLOUD INCREASE.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO STREAK IN DURING THE DAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS LOW FOR
NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP ON THIS FRONT EDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA NOW...HAVING MOVE PASSED CRW
IN THE LAST HOUR AND SHOULD CROSS CKB BY 630Z AND BKW AND EKN
BETWEEN 730Z AND 8Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A GOOD BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS LOOKING AT RADAR THAT THERE
WILL BE A SHORT BREAK BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN SO TRIED TO SHOW A BRIEF BREAK WITH VFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. THEN SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...WHEN THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE BRIEFLY TO VFR...WHILE STILL SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AROUND 16Z...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND SOME AND THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN NEWD...MOVING OUT OF NERN
KY BACK ACROSS WV. WITH THAT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE COLD
ADVECTION STILL ON GOING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS THE MOISTURE AGAIN SHALLOWS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NERN MOUNTAINS BY 6Z FRIDAY.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 150003
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
704 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE...HELD TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH 03Z WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.
REST SAME...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A STRONG LOW CENTER EASTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE THIS EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO EAST BAND OF
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TRACK.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE GOING ON IN THE WARM SECTOR. NICE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
OVERRUNNING BAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES
FROM SNOW BAND LIFTING UP AND AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW...HIGH END
SNOW ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST
THRU THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INITIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...OR
POSSIBLY TWO IN SOME AREAS...IN THE LOWLANDS. LATER TONIGHT..WE
BEGIN TO LOSE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SNOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE GOOD UPSLOPE KICKS IN BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.
HIGH PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY BUILDS IN THURSDAY FROM THE WEST...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART WITH A TRAJECTORY STILL
SOMEWHAT OFF THE LAKES. THUS...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE LOWLANDS...CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER DECREASES.
FOR TEMPERATURES...AS SHOWN LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
ARCTIC AIR WELL. GIVEN THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MB...WILL
GO BELOW ALL THE GUIDANCE. STILL...NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORESEEN AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH EXCEPT ON RIDGETOPS FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES DO NOT MOVE MUCH AS TEMPS
ALOFT EVEN GET A BIT COLDER..WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST H850 AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. UNUSUAL FACTOR FOR
OUR AREA...THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY COLDER THAN THE TEMPERATURES
REQUIRED FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THUS...ALTHOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTIFUL AT THE START...THE SNOW WILL BECOME QUITE
DRY AND FINE...RESULTING IN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS DUE TO UPSLOPE...BUT EXPECT LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL START TO
WANE AFTER 06Z WITH PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MOS
VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD. DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
PLUMMETING DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...AT LEAST EARLY...AND 5-10KT
WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO MINS FROM AROUND
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ON THE
RIDGES. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH A
SIZABLE AREA WITH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. STILL A BIT EARLY TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIRD
PERIOD...BUT CURRENT HWO HANDLES THINGS WELL.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING UP AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY IN
THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. WITH -20C H850 TEMPS LINGERING...COLDEST
MAX T VALUES IN SEVERAL YEARS WILL BE SEEN...MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND
20 DEGREES. LIKED THE MAV HERE...AND COULD EVEN SEE VALUES A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER.
CLEAR START FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CONUNDRUM IS HOW QUICKLY MID/HI
CLOUDS BUILD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER...AND THE
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS...PARTICULARLY GFS...SEEM
APPROPRIATELY QUICK ADVANCING NEXT CLIPPER LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY 00Z SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO SPILL IN BY 06Z IN SWIFT FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME THICKER MID CLOUD
ARRIVING BY 12Z. ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...DO NOT
FORESEE A BIG OVERNIGHT PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES. PROTECTED VALLEYS
LIKE EKN SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN...AND A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. TO THE
WEST...VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER.
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED CLOUD INCREASE.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO STREAK IN DURING THE DAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS LOW FOR
NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP ON THIS FRONT EDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING FROM NORTHERN OHIO MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND THEN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING VFR WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS DOWN TOMVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES. SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND BECOME GUSTY WHERE
THEY ARE NOT ALREADY GUSTY.
THE FRONT IS TIMED TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER AND PKB AND HTS AT
02Z...CRW AND CKB NEAR 03Z AND THEN FINALLY EKN AND BKW AROUND 05Z
TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THU...WITH MVFR VSBY IN SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK THU ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND BY
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES ALTHOUGH LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRATOCU DECK WILL LIFT ABOVE MVFR AROUND NOON
LOWLANDS AND NOT UNTIL VERY LATE THU OR THU NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THU...PERHAPS SLACKING OFF
JUST A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-
046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 142033
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A STRONG LOW CENTER EASTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE THIS EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO EAST BAND OF
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TRACK.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE GOING ON IN THE WARM SECTOR. NICE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
OVERRUNNING BAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES
FROM SNOW BAND LIFTING UP AND AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW...HIGH END
SNOW ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST
THRU THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INITIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...OR
POSSIBLY TWO IN SOME AREAS...IN THE LOWLANDS. LATER TONIGHT..WE
BEGIN TO LOSE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SNOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE GOOD UPSLOPE KICKS IN BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.
HIGH PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY BUILDS IN THURSDAY FROM THE WEST...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART WITH A TRAJECTORY STILL
SOMEWHAT OFF THE LAKES. THUS...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE LOWLANDS...CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER DECREASES.
FOR TEMPERATURES...AS SHOWN LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
ARCTIC AIR WELL. GIVEN THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MB...WILL
GO BELOW ALL THE GUIDANCE. STILL...NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORESEEN AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH EXCEPT ON RIDGETOPS FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES DO NOT MOVE MUCH AS TEMPS
ALOFT EVEN GET A BIT COLDER..WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST H850 AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. UNUSUAL FACTOR FOR
OUR AREA...THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY COLDER THAN THE TEMPERATURES
REQUIRED FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THUS...ALTHOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTIFUL AT THE START...THE SNOW WILL BECOME QUITE
DRY AND FINE...RESULTING IN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS DUE TO UPSLOPE...BUT EXPECT LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL START TO
WANE AFTER 06Z WITH PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MOS
VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD. DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
PLUMMETING DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...AT LEAST EARLY...AND 5-10KT
WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO MINS FROM AROUND
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ON THE
RIDGES. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH A
SIZABLE AREA WITH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. STILL A BIT EARLY TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIRD
PERIOD...BUT CURRENT HWO HANDLES THINGS WELL.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING UP AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY IN
THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS. WITH -20C H850 TEMPS LINGERING...COLDEST
MAX T VALUES IN SEVERAL YEARS WILL BE SEEN...MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND
20 DEGREES. LIKED THE MAV HERE...AND COULD EVEN SEE VALUES A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER.
CLEAR START FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CONUNDRUM IS HOW QUICKLY MID/HI
CLOUDS BUILD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER...AND THE
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. MODELS...PARTICULARLY GFS...SEEM
APPROPRIATELY QUICK ADVANCING NEXT CLIPPER LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY 00Z SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO SPILL IN BY 06Z IN SWIFT FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME THICKER MID CLOUD
ARRIVING BY 12Z. ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...DO NOT
FORESEE A BIG OVERNIGHT PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES. PROTECTED VALLEYS
LIKE EKN SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN...AND A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. TO THE
WEST...VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER.
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED CLOUD INCREASE.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO STREAK IN DURING THE DAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. KEPT POPS LOW FOR
NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP ON THIS FRONT EDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA. THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA EARLY
TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ALL OUR AREA BY 05Z.
NORTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ...GENERALLY
MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IFR/LIFR IN MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
AFTER 12Z...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER BY 18Z.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-
046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141854
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...SPED UP ADVANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS. ALSO PUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN APPENDAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. KEPT ADVISORIES AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS. BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES. IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD. AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC. THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.
SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR. BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST. ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW. BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC. FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.
ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA. THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA EARLY
TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ALL OUR AREA BY 05Z.
NORTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ...GENERALLY
MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IFR/LIFR IN MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
AFTER 12Z...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER BY 18Z.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141820
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
109 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...SPED UP ADVANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS. ALSO PUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN APPENDAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. KEPT ADVISORIES AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS. BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES. IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD. AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC. THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.
SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR. BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST. ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW. BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC. FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.
ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA. THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA EARLY
TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ALL OUR AREA BY 05Z.
NORTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ...GENERALLY
MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IFR/LIFR IN MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
AFTER 12Z...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER BY 18Z.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141606
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1006 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WITH ARCTIC COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...SPED UP ADVANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS. ALSO PUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN APPENDAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. KEPT ADVISORIES AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS. BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES. IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD. AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC. THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.
SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR. BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST. ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW. BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC. FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.
ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA...AND THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NORTH OF A HTS-CRW-48I LINE...EXPECT VFR TO DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAY QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. AFTER 00Z...ARCTIC FRONT DROPS
ACROSS WITH SNOW SHOWERS SETTING UP OVER THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT OCCASIONALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A CLIPPER BRINGS
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 141118
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...THANKS TO A PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT BAND HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
LIFTING NE A THE FLOW ALOFT IS BACKING AROUND TO THE SW IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHALLOW
UP...EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD
BE OVER BY 12Z. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS. BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES. IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD. AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC. THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.
SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR. BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST. ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW. BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC. FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.
ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES STILL LINGERING THANKS TO LINGERING
COLD ADVECTION...BUT AS FLOW TURNS WSW IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW OVER IOWA...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW
SUBSIDE TEMPORARILY. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS STILL FLOATING
AROUND...BUT BY 14Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO ALL HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
LEVELS AS MID DECK AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW MOVES IN.
THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL THE BIG QUESTION AS AREAS NORTH OF
THE LOW WILL SEE THE WIDE SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. SOUTH OF THE TRACK...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...AT WHICH TIME A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED. AT THIS
TIME...PKB/CKB ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOW
TRACK ALONG WITH EKN. WHILE HTS/CRW AND BKW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE.
ONCE THE LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT PASS...THE FLOW TURNS NWRLY AND WITH
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GOING...EXPECT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A CLIPPER BRINGS
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 140936
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
435 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...THANKS TO A PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT BAND HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
LIFTING NE A THE FLOW ALOFT IS BACKING AROUND TO THE SW IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHALLOW
UP...EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD
BE OVER BY 12Z. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS. BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES. IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD. AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC. THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB. BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.
SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR. BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE. TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST. ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW. BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.
FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC. FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.
ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND RADAR INDICATES THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE BACK EDGE ON
RADAR IS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT NW TO SE
BANDS...ONE THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING HTS AND A SECOND ONE THAT IS
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF 48I. OUTSIDE OF THOSE BANDS...JUST A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL FLOATING BY. SO INSIDE OF THE
BANDS...WHICH COULD IMPACT HTS AND BKW AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE...THE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL.
THE CLOUDS WITH THE UPSLOPE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT GONE BY 12Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ARRIVE. CURRENTLY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING
OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCH SE IN EASTERN
MISSOURI. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SRN INDIANA BY
18Z AND TO NEAR 3I2 BY 00Z. BY 15Z AT PKB/HTS...THE MID DECK
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THE CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT ALL SITES BY 18Z WITH A GRADUALLY LOWER OF
THE CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW...EXPECT SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PKB/CKB/EKN AFTER
21Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THE LOW
TRACK...HTS/CRW/BKW WILL STILL SEE SOME SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ALONG
THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AT HTS AND 3Z
AT BKW...AND SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A CLIPPER BRINGS
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ESS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 140623
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ARRIVES
THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RAPID CHANGES CONTINUE IN A FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXITING SYSTEM THIS EVENING...AND
WITH A VIGOROUS CLIPPER APPROACHING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRST...STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BIG STORY IS THE
FIRST PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN. BELIEVE THIS IS A TYPICAL CASE
OF THE MODELS NOT HANDLING THE ARCTIC AIR WELL...BEING TOO HIGH
TONIGHT ON TEMPS CONSIDERING THE VERY COLD TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. GOING LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT STILL NOT WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY DUE TO WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATER. ALSO...CLEARING THINGS OUT FASTER THAN THE MODELS LATER
TONIGHT AS IS TYPICAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR. EVEN THE PLUMES OFF THE
LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS GREATLY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THUS...DO HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING IN THE WEST...BUT STILL KEPT FLURRIES FOR A WHILE. MOST
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES END IN LOWLANDS BY 06Z...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
BY 10Z.
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS...ITS TRACK COMING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN EAST TO WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF PKB-CKB LINE. THUS...MODELS HAVE MOST
OF THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...SOUTHERN AREA WILL GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE
SUNSHINE WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. THUS...WENT FOR A BIGGER TEMP
RANGE...MILDER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND COLDER IN THE NORTH.
ANY SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCE OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM...AND THEN A QUESTION OF HOW LOW WILL THE TEMPERATURES GO IN
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.
MODELS HAVE FIRMED UP A BIT ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW...NOW TAKING THE
CENTER FROM JUST EAST OF CVG AT 00Z THU TO JUST EAST OF EKN BY 06Z
FRIDAY. BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL FALL ALONG OR NORTH OF THIS
TRACK...AHEAD OF WARM FRONT IN SW WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHERE UVV
IS MAXIMIZED. THUS HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS...LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL...NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY
SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE EVENING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLD ADVECTION GETS GOING. LIKELY/CAT POPS THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPS IN MOIST LAYER...WITH
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-15Z NOTED ON EKN BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.
GOING WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
1-3 INCHES IN THE USUAL TRIO OF RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...AND
WEBSTER. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS IN THE
FAVORED COUNTIES...AND WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THINK MOS MAY BE UNDERDOING COLD AIR A BIT. WENT AT
OR BELOW THE COLDER MAV.
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
H850 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -22C THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF COURSE. AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD DOWN WITH TIME AS AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH. GENERALLY
KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. COVERAGE STARTS TO WANE GREATLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH AND RETURN OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AGAIN KEPT VALUES AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MAV.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RISE FOR THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SLOW COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. IF SOME WESTERN COUNTIES ARE ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IF SUCH AN AREA HAS SNOW ON THE GROUND...COULD EVEN SEE
SOME ISOLATED BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA. WITH
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WIND CHILL LEVELS.
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN MIXED...WITH 5-10KT
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN HWO AS WELL.
SUNSHINE RETURNS FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN...BUT -20C H850
TEMPS REMAIN. KEPT PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID WHICH WAS ALREADY
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW MEX/MEN NUMBERS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE LUCKY
TO SEE 15 DEGREES FOR A DAILY HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND RADAR INDICATES THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE BACK EDGE ON
RADAR IS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT NW TO SE
BANDS...ONE THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING HTS AND A SECOND ONE THAT IS
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF 48I. OUTSIDE OF THOSE BANDS...JUST A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL FLOATING BY. SO INSIDE OF THE
BANDS...WHICH COULD IMPACT HTS AND BKW AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE...THE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL.
THE CLOUDS WITH THE UPSLOPE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT GONE BY 12Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ARRIVE. CURRENTLY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING
OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCH SE IN EASTERN
MISSOURI. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SRN INDIANA BY
18Z AND TO NEAR 3I2 BY 00Z. BY 15Z AT PKB/HTS...THE MID DECK
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THE CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT ALL SITES BY 18Z WITH A GRADUALLY LOWER OF
THE CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SFC LOW...EXPECT SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PKB/CKB/EKN AFTER
21Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THE LOW
TRACK...HTS/CRW/BKW WILL STILL SEE SOME SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE
ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AT HTS
AND 3Z AT BKW...AND SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY/... IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ESS
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