[top]
000
FXUS63 KLSX 160018
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
618 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/230 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
1048MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT EVERYONE WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. WIND WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NOT BE
EXTENDED PAST 01Z. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY STUNT THE TEMPERATURE DROP TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH THIS
SAID...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS THIS
EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THE MERCURY TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY ON FRIDAY THOUGH...GIVEN THE VERY COLD
START...INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING
TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. I WOULD THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO
BREAK 20 DEGREES.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A REINFORCING TROF/COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
REINFORCEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -10C ONCE AGAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE EXTENDED WITH COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE TUESDAY
FRONT DOES NOT LOOK EXTREMELY COLD...BUT THURSDAYS FRONT APPEARS TO
PACK MORE OF A PUNCH BY NEXT WEEKS END. FORECAST REMAINS DRY THRU
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/546 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE BI-STATE REGION THRU EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD...THEN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FRIDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STREAMS OVERHEAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT CIGS
COULD FALL TO BETWEEN 1500-2000FT IN CENTRAL MO ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SNOW...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED CIGS THIS LOW IN IN THE
TERMINALS JUST YET. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS
FOR CONSISTENCY BEFORE I JUMP ON THAT.
CARNEY
&&
.CLIMATE...
QUINCY AND COLUMBIA HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING.
ST. LOUIS STILL HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW ZERO...WITH A MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING. HERE ARE THE LAST TIME
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO THIS MORNING...WITH
THE LAST TIME STILL IN EFFECT FOR ST. LOUIS.
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-
BROWN IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
[top]
000
FXUS63 KEAX 152340
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
540 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
/344 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
ARCTIC SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER MISSOURI TONIGHT WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST OVER NE MISSOURI
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 15 BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY STILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NERN GRIDS IF TEMPS END UP COLDER THAN CURRENTLY
PROJECTED.
OTHERWISE...ALL MODELS CONSISTENT IN GENERATING MDT-STG ISENTROPIC
LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN A REGION OF MDT H8-H7
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. LIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NNW UPPER FLOW. AS PER THE MODELS...THE
FORCING IS RESTRICTED TO A NARROW ZONE ACROSS EXTREME ERN KS AND XTRM
WRN MO. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT SATURATING THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...DURATION NEEDED TO
SATURATE WILL BE RATHER QUICK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS...BUT GIVEN HIGH RATIOS...AN INCH OF FLUFFY POWDER
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA
BY EARLY AFTN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO DIMINISHING. MAY SEE A
FEW FLURRIES FOR THE ERN GRIDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. BY THE AFTN HOURS...SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES
WILL AID IN RAPID WARMUP DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SWRN CWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ONLY A SMALL DROP IN TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ANOTHER CASE WHERE TEMPERATURES RISE AFT MIDNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WK FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACR THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR THE XTRM WRN CWA ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE ERN CWA WILL LIKELY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF COOL TEMPS
DUE TO SFC TRAJECTORIES OVER THE SNOW FIELDS IN XTRM ERN NEB AND
IOWA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE...BUT GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST.
DB
MEDIUM RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE
AREA. SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN WITH THE
INFLUENCE FROM EACH DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONAL WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SIGNALS A SHIFT INTO A
WARMER PATTERN AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO CWA ALONG WITH RETURN FLOW
AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD PUSH WELL ABOVE SEASON NORMALS BEFORE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS NO OR LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME.
DNB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN
EXPECT MID CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT AGL TO SHIFT EAST FROM KS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM SD/NE. COMBINATION OF
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
WILL LIKELY GENERATE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ARRIVING SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z. HAVE PUSHED UP THE START TIME BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS TEND TO BE SLOW
WITH ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE PRECIPITATION. SOME CONCERN
THAT VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN VIRGA BUT MODEL
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS INDICATE THE TOP-DOWN SATURATION
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH. THINK
THE INITIALLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CUT INTO THE SNOW PRODUCTION
TIME-WISE BUT THAT WILL BE BALANCED BY THE VERY HIGH LIQUID/SNOW
RATIO. SO HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LOOKS REASONABLE WITH TOP END
AROUND AN INCH.
THE SNOW BAND SHOULD EXIT ALL 3 TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GET GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VFR CEILINGS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
MJ
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KSGF 152312
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS NOSING INTO NW MO. ALL
DAY CAA HAS RESULTED IN ONLY A VERY MODEST REBOUND IN TEMPS AFTER
MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN CENTRAL
MO AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BARELY MADE IT INTO THE TEENS WITH FULL SUN OVER
CENTRAL MO AND THE EASTERN OZARKS AND A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
AREA. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND ON ITS WAY TO DEPARTING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. NORMALLY...AT LEAST 95 PERCENT OF THE TIME LOOKING
BACK ON CLIMO...ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND TO
HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES GOING BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...THIS
AIRMASS IS FAR FROM THE NORM WITH LOWS LAST NIGHT IN NORTHERN MO
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOWER TEENS AT THIS HOUR...AND WITH THE HEART OF THIS AIRMASS
MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE AT OR
BELOW ZERO. RARELY DO ARCTIC AIRMASSES LEND THEMSELVES TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO CLOUD COVER WILL NOT DO MUCH TO HELP
MITIGATE OUR COOLING TONIGHT...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
WESTERN ZONES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER VORT LOBE WILL RIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT MOISTURE IN THE 700-300MB LAYER WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT
EXPECTING ALL THAT MUCH...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME FLAKES FLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THIS FORCING WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NW OF THE
PLATEAU. LINGERING CLOUDS AND LAGGING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A COOLER DAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ANCHOR OUR
WARM UP INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BEHIND THIS NEXT CLIPPER...THE
INCOMING AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST...THUS WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT
WEEK. WITH BOUTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
IN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAIN NEXT TO NIL WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED. THOUGH WE WILL EXPERIENCE A WELCOMED WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH WELL INTO THE
40S AND EVEN 50S POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 152144
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER MISSOURI TONIGHT WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST OVER NE MISSOURI
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 15 BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AS A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY STILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NERN GRIDS IF TEMPS END UP COLDER THAN CURRENTLY
PROJECTED.
OTHERWISE...ALL MODELS CONSISTENT IN GENERATING MDT-STG ISENTROPIC
LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITHIN A REGION OF MDT H8-H7
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. LIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN NNW UPPER FLOW. AS PER THE MODELS...THE
FORCING IS RESTRICTED TO A NARROW ZONE ACROSS EXTREME ERN KS AND XTRM
WRN MO. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT SATURATING THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS...BUT GIVEN SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...DURATION NEEDED TO
SATURATE WILL BE RATHER QUICK. QPF AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OR LESS...BUT GIVEN HIGH RATIOS...AN INCH OF FLUFFY POWDER
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CWA
BY EARLY AFTN WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO DIMINISHING. MAY SEE A
FEW FLURRIES FOR THE ERN GRIDS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. BY THE AFTN HOURS...SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES
WILL AID IN RAPID WARMUP DURING THE AFTN HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SWRN CWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH ONLY A SMALL DROP IN TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ANOTHER CASE WHERE TEMPERATURES RISE AFT MIDNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WK FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACR THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS EXPECTED FOR THE XTRM WRN CWA ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE ERN CWA WILL LIKELY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF COOL TEMPS
DUE TO SFC TRAJECTORIES OVER THE SNOW FIELDS IN XTRM ERN NEB AND IOWA.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE...BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE
KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST.
DB
MEDIUM RANGE /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE
AREA. SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN WITH THE
INFLUENCE FROM EACH DIMINISHING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONAL WITH NO
PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SIGNALS A SHIFT INTO A
WARMER PATTERN AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO CWA ALONG WITH RETURN FLOW
AROUND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD PUSH WELL ABOVE SEASON NORMALS BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS NO OR LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME.
DNB
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MO. MAIN CONCERN IS AFT 12Z AS BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW A STRONG...BUT BRIEF PERIOD...OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. DUE TO THE STG
LIFT...SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER QUICK. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS CAN SATURATE GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS. PREFER TO HEDGE TOWARD THE MODELS AS VERY LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE SFC WILL BE QUICK TO SATURATE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE NARROW BAND IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...WILL TREND THE TAFS TOWARD A MVFR MINOR SNOW EVENT. IN
ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.
DB
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 152037
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS NOSING INTO NW MO. ALL
DAY CAA HAS RESULTED IN ONLY A VERY MODEST REBOUND IN TEMPS AFTER
MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN CENTRAL
MO AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EVERYWHERE ELSE. TEMPS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BARELY MADE IT INTO THE TEENS WITH FULL SUN OVER
CENTRAL MO AND THE EASTERN OZARKS AND A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE
AREA. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND ON ITS WAY TO DEPARTING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. NORMALLY...AT LEAST 95 PERCENT OF THE TIME LOOKING
BACK ON CLIMO...ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND TO
HELP SUPPORT TEMPERATURES GOING BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER...THIS
AIRMASS IS FAR FROM THE NORM WITH LOWS LAST NIGHT IN NORTHERN MO
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE LOWER TEENS AT THIS HOUR...AND WITH THE HEART OF THIS AIRMASS
MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE AT OR
BELOW ZERO. RARELY DO ARCTIC AIRMASSES LEND THEMSELVES TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING SO CLOUD COVER WILL NOT DO MUCH TO HELP
MITIGATE OUR COOLING TONIGHT...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
WESTERN ZONES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ANOTHER VORT LOBE WILL RIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT MOISTURE IN THE 700-300MB LAYER WILL HELP
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. NOT
EXPECTING ALL THAT MUCH...BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME FLAKES FLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THIS FORCING WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NW OF THE
PLATEAU. LINGERING CLOUDS AND LAGGING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN A COOLER DAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ANCHOR OUR
WARM UP INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. BEHIND THIS NEXT CLIPPER...THE
INCOMING AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST...THUS WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT
WEEK. WITH BOUTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
IN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION
REMAIN NEXT TO NIL WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED. THOUGH WE WILL EXPERIENCE A WELCOMED WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH WELL INTO THE
40S AND EVEN 50S POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NARROW AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER SE KS WILL TRY AND APPROACH THE
JLN AERODROME...BUT DRY AIR IMPINGING FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY
PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. NEVERTHELESS...SCT SNOW
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JLN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VARIABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT AND THICKEN A BIT FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LEADING TO SLACKENING WINDS. AS THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INTENSIFY.
GAGAN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 152032
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
232 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/230 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
1048MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT EVERYONE WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. WIND WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL NOT BE
EXTENDED PAST 01Z. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY STUNT THE TEMPERATURE DROP TOWARD
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH THIS
SAID...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS THIS
EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THE MERCURY TO DROP BELOW ZERO.
CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE A SLOW RECOVERY ON FRIDAY THOUGH...GIVEN THE VERY COLD
START...INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING
TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z. I WOULD THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO
BREAK 20 DEGREES.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND A REINFORCING TROF/COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
REINFORCEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -10C ONCE AGAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE EXTENDED WITH COLD FROPA EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE TUESDAY
FRONT DOES NOT LOOK EXTREMELY COLD...BUT THURSDAYS FRONT APPEARS TO
PACK MORE OF A PUNCH BY NEXT WEEKS END. FORECAST REMAINS DRY THRU
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION...
/1140 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE
THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NWLY SFC WNDS BECOMING LGT/VRBL...AND
THEN LATER BECOMING SE-S BY EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR AFTER SR FRIDAY
MORNING.
TES
&&
.CLIMATE...
QUINCY AND COLUMBIA HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING.
ST. LOUIS STILL HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW ZERO...WITH A MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING. HERE ARE THE LAST TIME
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO THIS MORNING...WITH
THE LAST TIME STILL IN EFFECT FOR ST. LOUIS.
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-
BROWN IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 151745
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1145 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.UPDATE...
/1145 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
WILL RE-ORGANIZE HEADLINES FOR TODAY...RETREATING THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO THE FAR NRN/NERN FA WHERE AOB -15F WIND CHILLS WILL BE
MAINTAINED INTO THIS EVENING. BEYOND EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
CHILL HEADLINES MORE IN DOUBT...NOT DUE TO LACK OF COLD AIR...BUT
DUE TO WINDS DIMINISHING ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT WIND CHILL
HEADLINES. WILL BE RE-EVALUATED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR NEED TO
EXTEND.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR
TODAY.
TES
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/347 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HAVE SEEN SOME WIND CHILLS IN
THE WARNING CRITERIA RANGE FAR NORTH. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE THEY
MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF VERY COLD WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
MINUS 7 AT QUINCY TO 7 ABOVE ZERO AT FARMINGTON AND SPARTA AS OF 3
AM. WILL SEE TEMPS DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN RISE
VERY SLOWLY...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH MID TEENS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR WIND
CHILL INDICES...THEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING THE INDICES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NOON...SO WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY/WARNING AS IS WITH THEM EXPIRING AT 18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
CHILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...SO DO
NOT PLAN ON EXTENDING ANY HEADLINES THERE.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE TEMPS AND WIND
CHILLS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
DOWN BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR NORTH...SO DAY CREW MAY
NEED TO ADD A HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AS STRONG
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE MAIN LOW
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF AREA...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. COULD SEE MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOW...SO KEPT DIURNAL TREND FOR NOW.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE CAA IS RATHER WEAK...SO DO NOT EXPECT A
MAJOR COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH.
BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK GOOD AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
/1140 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE
THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NWLY SFC WNDS BECOMING LGT/VRBL...AND
THEN LATER BECOMING SE-S BY EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR AFTER SR FRIDAY
MORNING.
TES
&&
.CLIMATE...
QUINCY AND COLUMBIA HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING.
ST. LOUIS STILL HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW ZERO...WITH A MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING. HERE ARE THE LAST TIME
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO THIS MORNING...WITH
THE LAST TIME STILL IN EFFECT FOR ST. LOUIS.
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-
BROWN IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 151740
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/347 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HAVE SEEN SOME WIND CHILLS IN
THE WARNING CRITERIA RANGE FAR NORTH. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE THEY
MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF VERY COLD WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
MINUS 7 AT QUINCY TO 7 ABOVE ZERO AT FARMINGTON AND SPARTA AS OF 3
AM. WILL SEE TEMPS DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN RISE
VERY SLOWLY...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH MID TEENS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR WIND
CHILL INDICES...THEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING THE INDICES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NOON...SO WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY/WARNING AS IS WITH THEM EXPIRING AT 18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
CHILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...SO DO
NOT PLAN ON EXTENDING ANY HEADLINES THERE.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE TEMPS AND WIND
CHILLS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
DOWN BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR NORTH...SO DAY CREW MAY
NEED TO ADD A HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AS STRONG
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE MAIN LOW
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF AREA...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY BE
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. COULD SEE MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LOW...SO KEPT DIURNAL TREND FOR NOW.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE CAA IS RATHER WEAK...SO DO NOT EXPECT A
MAJOR COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH.
BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK GOOD AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
/1140 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE
THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NWLY SFC WNDS BECOMING LGT/VRBL...AND
THEN LATER BECOMING SE-S BY EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR AFTER SR FRIDAY
MORNING.
TES
&&
.CLIMATE...
QUINCY AND COLUMBIA HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING.
ST. LOUIS STILL HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW ZERO...WITH A MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF ZERO DEGREES THIS MORNING. HERE ARE THE LAST TIME
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO PRIOR TO THIS MORNING...WITH
THE LAST TIME STILL IN EFFECT FOR ST. LOUIS.
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-
BROWN IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 151740
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1140 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING ON TRACK AND WILL LET EXPIRE
LATER THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL BY 18Z FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINING COLD TO NEUTRAL
AND LOW SUN ANGLE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...TO
AROUND 15 ABOVE IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
WITH SUCH A COLD START...LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
NEAR ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO NEAR 10
BELOW IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI. HOWEVER READINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS DOME OF COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT BEING SAID...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI
MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERION.
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FLOW...CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
AREA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AT A RELATIVELY LOW LEVEL
FROM AROUND 800 TO 900 MB.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BRING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP AS BEST FORCING LIKELY TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NRR
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MO. MAIN CONCERN IS AFT 12Z AS BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW A STRONG...BUT BRIEF PERIOD...OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 13Z-16Z. DUE TO THE STG
LIFT...SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER QUICK. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE LOWER LEVELS CAN SATURATE GIVEN THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS. PREFER TO HEDGE TOWARD THE MODELS AS VERY LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE SFC WILL BE QUICK TO SATURATE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE NARROW BAND IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...WILL TREND THE TAFS TOWARD A MVFR MINOR SNOW EVENT. IN
ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.
DB
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-
MOZ008-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ024-MOZ025.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-
MOZ004.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 151733
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
NARROW FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA OF FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS
IS CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
CURRENT RADAR ECHOES HAVE YIELDED LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE
SFC...BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ISO/SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SE KS AND FAR SW MO. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS AREA OF FORCING INTERACTS WITH AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS.
COMBO OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL REALLY LIMIT WARMING TODAY AND HAVE
CUT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
GAGAN
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC INTRUSION HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 5 IN CENTRAL MO TO THE
MID TEENS NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
ANOTHER 4 TO 8 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS HAVE
NOT GOT OUT OF HAND BUT HAVE REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TBN AND
ARE APPROACHING CRITERIA AT BOTH AIZ/VIH. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MO/SE KS HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ALONG THE MO/AR
BORDER WHERE LOW 20S MAY BE REALIZED. AS RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING. WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR WITH LOWS PROJECTED
TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF A SOUTH
WIND. SOME CLOUD COVER AND A SLOWER RETURN OF THE WARMER AIR WILL
KEEP HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. (MAV NUMBERS ARE SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
WHAT IS WAS PROJECTING ON FRIDAY FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z NUMBERS).
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
SEE A MORE MINIMAL TEMPERATURE DROP FROM FRIDAYS HIGHS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE AROUND A 5 TO 7 DEGREE DROP ACROSS THE CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY MAKE
IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO...WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NARROW AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER SE KS WILL TRY AND APPROACH THE
JLN AERODROME...BUT DRY AIR IMPINGING FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY
PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL. NEVERTHELESS...SCT SNOW
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JLN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VARIABLE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT AND THICKEN A BIT FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LEADING TO SLACKENING WINDS. AS THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INTENSIFY.
GAGAN
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 151154
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
554 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/347 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HAVE SEEN SOME WIND CHILLS IN
THE WARNING CRITERIA RANGE FAR NORTH. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE THEY
MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF VERY COLD WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
MINUS 7 AT QUINCY TO 7 ABOVE ZERO AT FARMINGTON AND SPARTA AS OF 3
AM. WILL SEE TEMPS DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN RISE
VERY SLOWLY...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH MID TEENS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR WIND
CHILL INDICES...THEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING THE INDICES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NOON...SO WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY/WARNING AS IS WITH THEM EXPIRING AT 18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
CHILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...SO DO
NOT PLAN ON EXTENDING ANY HEADLINES THERE.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE TEMPS AND WIND
CHILLS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
DOWN BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR NORTH...SO DAY CREW MAY
NEED TO ADD A HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AS STRONG
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE MAIN LOW
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF AREA...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE
...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. COULD SEE MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
...WITH FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS LOW...SO KEPT DIURNAL TREND FOR NOW.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE CAA IS RATHER WEAK...SO DO NOT EXPECT A
MAJOR COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH.
BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK GOOD AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
/548 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED FROM CNTRL ND TO MID MORVR
VLY WL SLIDE SE...AND SHUD BE CNTRD OVR MO BOOTHEEL BY 12Z
FRIDAY. WINDS SHUD MUCH RMN AS THEY ARE FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TDA...AND THEN TAPER OFF LT THIS AFTN OR ERY THIS EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT MORE. BITTERLY COLD AMS IS ALSO VRY DRY...SO ONLY
CLDS WL BE HI LVL VARIETY...AND THAT WL PRIMARILY BE LT IN THIS PD
AS WAA BGNS DVLPG OVR W MO.
TRUETT
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-MADISON-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-
REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-
SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 151138
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING ON TRACK AND WILL LET EXPIRE
LATER THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL BY 18Z FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINING COLD TO NEUTRAL
AND LOW SUN ANGLE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...TO
AROUND 15 ABOVE IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
WITH SUCH A COLD START...LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
NEAR ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO NEAR 10
BELOW IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI. HOWEVER READINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS DOME OF COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT BEING SAID...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI
MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERION.
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FLOW...CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
AREA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AT A RELATIVELY LOW LEVEL
FROM AROUND 800 TO 900 MB.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BRING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP AS BEST FORCING LIKELY TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NRR
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
STREAMING JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AND MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY INCH INTO THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS THROUGH
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD...THEN WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE
HIGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
DEROCHE
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-
MOZ008-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ024-MOZ025.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-
MOZ004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR MOZ011-MOZ012-
MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-MOZ028-MOZ029-
MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-
MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-
KSZ060-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 151132
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
532 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC INTRUSION HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 5 IN CENTRAL MO TO THE
MID TEENS NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
ANOTHER 4 TO 8 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS HAVE
NOT GOT OUT OF HAND BUT HAVE REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TBN AND
ARE APPROACHING CRITERIA AT BOTH AIZ/VIH. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MO/SE KS HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ALONG THE MO/AR
BORDER WHERE LOW 20S MAY BE REALIZED. AS RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING. WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR WITH LOWS PROJECTED
TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF A SOUTH
WIND. SOME CLOUD COVER AND A SLOWER RETURN OF THE WARMER AIR WILL
KEEP HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. (MAV NUMBERS ARE SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
WHAT IS WAS PROJECTING ON FRIDAY FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z NUMBERS).
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
SEE A MORE MINIMAL TEMPERATURE DROP FROM FRIDAYS HIGHS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE AROUND A 5 TO 7 DEGREE DROP ACROSS THE CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY MAKE
IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO...WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. NO LOW CEILINGS...AND NO
OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
CRAMER
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 150948
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
348 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/347 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/
ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HAVE SEEN SOME WIND CHILLS IN
THE WARNING CRITERIA RANGE FAR NORTH. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE THEY
MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF VERY COLD WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
MINUS 7 AT QUINCY TO 7 ABOVE ZERO AT FARMINGTON AND SPARTA AS OF 3
AM. WILL SEE TEMPS DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN RISE
VERY SLOWLY...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH MID TEENS FURTHER SOUTH. AS FOR WIND
CHILL INDICES...THEY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE TODAY WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING THE INDICES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NOON...SO WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY/WARNING AS IS WITH THEM EXPIRING AT 18Z. SOME CONCERN THAT
FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
CHILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WILL BE VERY MARGINAL...SO DO
NOT PLAN ON EXTENDING ANY HEADLINES THERE.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE TEMPS AND WIND
CHILLS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
DOWN BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE FAR NORTH...SO DAY CREW MAY
NEED TO ADD A HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AS STRONG
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TO SLIDE THROUGH AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE MAIN LOW
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF AREA...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE
...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. COULD SEE MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
...WITH FALLING TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS LOW...SO KEPT DIURNAL TREND FOR NOW.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THE CAA IS RATHER WEAK...SO DO NOT EXPECT A
MAJOR COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH.
BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK GOOD AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
/1046 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONT THIS FCST PD AS STG
ARCTIC RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS BLDS SEWD THRU MO IL. THE WND SPEED
SHOULD CONT TO GRADUALLY WKN THRU THE LT NGT HRS AND LOSE ITS
GUSTINESS. STILL SOME SCT-BKN LOW LVL CLOUDINESS IN THE STL METRO
AREA ARND 2000-3000 FT BUT THIS SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER SEWD AS THE
MDLS ARE DEPICTING DRYING OF THE BNDRY LYR THRU THE LT NGT AND
INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS. UIN ALSO BRIEFLY WENT BKN011 THE PAST HR
BUT THIS WAS SHORT LIVED. COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF BKN LOW
LVL CLOUINESS DURING THE LT NGT HRS DUE TO ISOLATED PATCHES OF
STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN ON THE SATELLITE LOOPS. MAY INCLUDE SCT020-030 CLOUDS
IN STL AND SUS AND POSSIBLY ALSO UIN AND COU DURING THE NEXT TWO
OR THREE HRS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTG TO STREAM
E-SEWD THRU THE SRN HALF OF MO LT TGT.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-MADISON-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-
REYNOLDS-ST. CHARLES-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-
STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-
SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-
RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 150944
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
344 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING ON TRACK AND WILL LET EXPIRE
LATER THIS MORNING AS ADVERTISED.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL BY 18Z FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINING COLD TO NEUTRAL
AND LOW SUN ANGLE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...TO
AROUND 15 ABOVE IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI.
WITH SUCH A COLD START...LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
NEAR ZERO IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO NEAR 10
BELOW IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI. HOWEVER READINGS BY FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS DOME OF COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT BEING SAID...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI
MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING ADVISORY
CRITERION.
LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE FLOW...CROSSING EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
AREA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION AT A RELATIVELY LOW LEVEL
FROM AROUND 800 TO 900 MB.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OR
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WILL BRING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP AS BEST FORCING LIKELY TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NRR
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE DAY
THEN SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE BY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-
MOZ008-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ024-MOZ025.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-
MOZ003-MOZ004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033- MOZ037-MOZ038-
MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 150829
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC INTRUSION HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 5 IN CENTRAL MO TO THE
MID TEENS NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
ANOTHER 4 TO 8 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS HAVE
NOT GOT OUT OF HAND BUT HAVE REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TBN AND
ARE APPROACHING CRITERIA AT BOTH AIZ/VIH. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MO/SE KS HOWEVER LIGHT SNOW REMAINS
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ALONG THE MO/AR
BORDER WHERE LOW 20S MAY BE REALIZED. AS RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE
EVENING. WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR WITH LOWS PROJECTED
TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF A SOUTH
WIND. SOME CLOUD COVER AND A SLOWER RETURN OF THE WARMER AIR WILL
KEEP HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. (MAV NUMBERS ARE SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
WHAT IS WAS PROJECTING ON FRIDAY FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z NUMBERS).
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
SEE A MORE MINIMAL TEMEPERATURE DROP FROM FRIDAYS HIGHS. HAVE
GENERALLY GONE AROUND A 5 TO 7 DEGREE DROP ACROSS THE CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL LIKELY MAKE
IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO...WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
OZARKS. A NORTH SURFACE WIND WILL DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 150545
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
...UPDATED DISCUSSION AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS REMAINING STRONGER IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND MACON AND LINNEUS
ALREADY DOWN TO 2 BELOW ZERO AT THIS POINT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
MACON AND LINN COUNTY TO THE WIND CHILL WARNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/337 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
MAIN CONCERN IS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT
RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE SOUTHERN CWA TO 5 TO 15 BELOW NEAR
THE IOWA ORDER. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE WIND CHILLS FROM 25 TO 30 BELOW ACR XTRM
NCNTRL MO. ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILLS READINGS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST 15
BELOW. HAVE ADJUSTED ADVISORY AND WARNINGS TO ADJUST TO THE LATEST
TRENDS OF OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST
TOWARD MO. POOR JANUARY INSOLATION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE DECREASING WINDS...WILL ALLOW
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS TO EXPIRE ON OR BEFORE NOON.
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST OF MO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WARMER SW LLVL
FLOW TO RETURN. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ACR THE
WRN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ERN GRIDS STILL REMAINING QUITE COLD.
HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HAVING TO REISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...HAVE CONCERN THAT THE WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET
CRITERIA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER IN NW UPPER FLOW ONCE AGAIN INITIATES LEE TROUGHING.
DESPITE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS
IS QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY CALL FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER.
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CALL FOR
RISING TEMPS AFT MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
DB
MEDIUM RANGE /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO OUR EAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH EACH SYSTEM HAVING LESS OF A WX IMPACT. WITH THE MORE EAST
TRAJECTORY OF THE SFC WAVES...CAA BEHIND EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY TO AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...WILL ALLOW FOR
A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS FOR MID WEEK...BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY WIND THROUGH THE DAY
THEN SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE BY EVENING AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-
MOZ008-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ024-MOZ025.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-
MOZ003-MOZ004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033- MOZ037-MOZ038-
MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 150516
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.
GAGAN
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS WELL UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE IN A
NEAR FREE FALL AT THIS HOUR. AFTER AN EARLY DAY HIGH IN THE LOW
40S...TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 20S AND DROPPING ON THE
ORDER OR 5F TO 7F PER HOUR. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND WITH THE CENTER OF THIS
ARCTIC HIGH IS JUST NOW NOSING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIGID. NO MINCING WORDS HERE AS
THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO IN NEB/IA I HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST MOS
GUIDANCE (MET/FWC) THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH A LACK OF SNOW
COVER WE WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. CAA WILL BE MAINTAINED THURSDAY AND RELINQUISH A BIT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH NOT MUCH RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 15F TO 20F RANGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY DECENT DIURNAL SWING ON FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. SHOULD OBSERVE A PRETTY DECENT
GRADIENT WIND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOLING AND HAVE WARMED LOWS ACCORDINGLY. THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AFTER OBSERVING THE WARM
UP AHEAD OF TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCREASED HIGH TO WELL INTO THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS. ONCE AGAIN A
DEARTH OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN A
BIT WITH RIDGING OUT WEST FLATTENING AND SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NATION. HOW THIS HAPPENS REMAINS UP TO SOME DEBATE...BUT
ANY WAY ONE SLICES IT THE MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A
WARMING TREND IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE MIDWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S POSSIBLE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT CONTINUES
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...AS A RESULT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
OZARKS. A NORTH SURFACE WIND WILL DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE REGION.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 150502
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1102 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.UPDATE...
/916 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
GOING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK GOOD. HAVE BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS.
STEMPERATURES ARE FALLING AS EXPECTED AND RESULTING WIND CHILLS
STILL WILL BE COLD ENOUGH OVER NERN MO/W CNTRL IL TO REACH WARNING
CRITERIA WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
BRITT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/438 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE REMAINS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1045MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHEAST IOWA BY AROUND 21Z THURSDAY. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS THIS HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ARE PREVAILING AT THIS TIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS HIGH. WHILE SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY...SNOW
FIELDS TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA SHOULD KEEP THIS
AIRMASS VERY...VERY...VERY COLD. GENERALLY WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE WE`RE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS HIGH.
ADDING INSULT TO INJURY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL BE UPGRADING NORTHERN TIER OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO A WARNING...AND EXTENDING THE TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE REMAINING ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ADVISORY WILL START
AT 03Z FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
BEGINNING AT 06Z TONIGHT. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 18Z THURSDAY...THO SOME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAY NEED AN
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 12-14KT RANGE WHICH
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS VERY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE.
WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR MORE
HEADLINES TOMORROW AFTERNOON RATHER THAN EXTENDING AT THIS TIME.
THANKFULLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTIONS OF THESE SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BRING IN QUICK SHOTS OF
COLD AIR...BUT THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN 1/4
OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLDEST AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EACH SHORTWAVE HAS SOME
WEAK SIGNALS FOR PRECIP AND VERY LIGHT QPF BEING SPAT OUT BY THE
MODELS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
GINORMOUS ARCTIC HIGH THAT I`M RELUCTANT TO INTRO PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/1046 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...NWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONT THIS FCST PD AS STG
ARCTIC RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS BLDS SEWD THRU MO IL. THE WND SPEED
SHOULD CONT TO GRADUALLY WKN THRU THE LT NGT HRS AND LOSE ITS
GUSTINESS. STILL SOME SCT-BKN LOW LVL CLOUDINESS IN THE STL METRO
AREA ARND 2000-3000 FT BUT THIS SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER SEWD AS THE
MDLS ARE DEPICTING DRYING OF THE BNDRY LYR THRU THE LT NGT AND
INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS. UIN ALSO BRIEFLY WENT BKN011 THE PAST HR
BUT THIS WAS SHORT LIVED. COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PD OF BKN LOW
LVL CLOUINESS DURING THE LT NGT HRS DUE TO ISOLATED PATCHES OF
STRATUS OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO DISCERN ON THE SATELLITE LOOPS. MAY INCLUDE SCT020-030 CLOUDS
IN STL AND SUS AND POSSIBLY ALSO UIN AND COU DURING THE NEXT TWO
OR THREE HRS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTG TO STREAM
E-SEWD THRU THE SRN HALF OF MO LT TGT.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-
MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR RANDOLPH IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN
IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST.
CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 150323
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
923 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.UPDATE...
/916 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
GOING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK GOOD. HAVE BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY ON THE WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS.
STEMPERATURES ARE FALLING AS EXPECTED AND RESULTING WIND CHILLS
STILL WILL BE COLD ENOUGH OVER NERN MO/W CNTRL IL TO REACH WARNING
CRITERIA WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
BRITT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/438 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE REMAINS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1045MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHEAST IOWA BY AROUND 21Z THURSDAY. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS THIS HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ARE PREVAILING AT THIS TIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS HIGH. WHILE SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY...SNOW
FIELDS TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA SHOULD KEEP THIS
AIRMASS VERY...VERY...VERY COLD. GENERALLY WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE WE`RE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS HIGH.
ADDING INSULT TO INJURY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL BE UPGRADING NORTHERN TIER OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO A WARNING...AND EXTENDING THE TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE REMAINING ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ADVISORY WILL START
AT 03Z FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
BEGINNING AT 06Z TONIGHT. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 18Z THURSDAY...THO SOME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAY NEED AN
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 12-14KT RANGE WHICH
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS VERY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE.
WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR MORE
HEADLINES TOMORROW AFTERNOON RATHER THAN EXTENDING AT THIS TIME.
THANKFULLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTIONS OF THESE SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BRING IN QUICK SHOTS OF
COLD AIR...BUT THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN 1/4
OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLDEST AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EACH SHORTWAVE HAS SOME
WEAK SIGNALS FOR PRECIP AND VERY LIGHT QPF BEING SPAT OUT BY THE
MODELS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
GINORMOUS ARCTIC HIGH THAT I`M RELUCTANT TO INTRO PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/542 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...NWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONT THIS FCST PD AS STG
ARCTIC RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS BLDS SEWD THRU MO IL. THE WND SPEED
SHOULD GRADUALLY WKN THRU THE NGT AND LOSE ITS GUSTINESS. DO NOT
SEE MUCH CLOUDINESS EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTG TO STREAM
SEWD THRU CNTRL MO TGT.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-
MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR RANDOLPH IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN
IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST.
CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 142352
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
552 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/438 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE REMAINS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1045MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHEAST IOWA BY AROUND 21Z THURSDAY. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS THIS HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ARE PREVAILING AT THIS TIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS HIGH. WHILE SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY...SNOW
FIELDS TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA SHOULD KEEP THIS
AIRMASS VERY...VERY...VERY COLD. GENERALLY WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE WE`RE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS HIGH.
ADDING INSULT TO INJURY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL BE UPGRADING NORTHERN TIER OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO A WARNING...AND EXTENDING THE TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE REMAINING ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ADVISORY WILL START
AT 03Z FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
BEGINNING AT 06Z TONIGHT. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 18Z THURSDAY...THO SOME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAY NEED AN
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 12-14KT RANGE WHICH
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS VERY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE.
WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR MORE
HEADLINES TOMORROW AFTERNOON RATHER THAN EXTENDING AT THIS TIME.
THANKFULLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTIONS OF THESE SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BRING IN QUICK SHOTS OF
COLD AIR...BUT THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN 1/4
OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLDEST AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EACH SHORTWAVE HAS SOME
WEAK SIGNALS FOR PRECIP AND VERY LIGHT QPF BEING SPAT OUT BY THE
MODELS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
GINORMOUS ARCTIC HIGH THAT I`M RELUCTANT TO INTRO PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/542 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...NWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONT THIS FCST PD AS STG
ARCTIC RDG OVER THE NRN PLAINS BLDS SEWD THRU MO IL. THE WND SPEED
SHOULD GRADUALLY WKN THRU THE NGT AND LOSE ITS GUSTINESS. DO NOT
SEE MUCH CLOUDINESS EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTG TO STREAM
SEWD THRU CNTRL MO TGT.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE.
GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-
RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR RANDOLPH IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 142335
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
535 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.
GAGAN
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS WELL UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE IN A
NEAR FREE FALL AT THIS HOUR. AFTER AN EARLY DAY HIGH IN THE LOW
40S...TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 20S AND DROPPING ON THE
ORDER OR 5F TO 7F PER HOUR. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND WITH THE CENTER OF THIS
ARCTIC HIGH IS JUST NOW NOSING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIGID. NO MINCING WORDS HERE AS
THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO IN NEB/IA I HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST MOS
GUIDANCE (MET/FWC) THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH A LACK OF SNOW
COVER WE WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. CAA WILL BE MAINTAINED THURSDAY AND RELINQUISH A BIT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH NOT MUCH RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 15F TO 20F RANGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY DECENT DIURNAL SWING ON FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. SHOULD OBSERVE A PRETTY DECENT
GRADIENT WIND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOLING AND HAVE WARMED LOWS ACCORDINGLY. THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AFTER OBSERVING THE WARM
UP AHEAD OF TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCREASED HIGH TO WELL INTO THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS. ONCE AGAIN A
DEARTH OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN A
BIT WITH RIDGING OUT WEST FLATTENING AND SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NATION. HOW THIS HAPPENS REMAINS UP TO SOME DEBATE...BUT
ANY WAY ONE SLICES IT THE MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A
WARMING TREND IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE MIDWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S POSSIBLE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT CONTINUES
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...AS A RESULT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE OOZ TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SWEEP THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO
THE REGION. NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND GRADUALLY WEAKENING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
ANGLE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 142320
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
/337 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
MAIN CONCERN IS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT
RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE SOUTHERN CWA TO 5 TO 15 BELOW NEAR
THE IOWA ORDER. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE WIND CHILLS FROM 25 TO 30 BELOW ACR XTRM
NCNTRL MO. ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILLS READINGS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST 15
BELOW. HAVE ADJUSTED ADVISORY AND WARNINGS TO ADJUST TO THE LATEST
TRENDS OF OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST
TOWARD MO. POOR JANUARY INSOLATION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE DECREASING WINDS...WILL ALLOW
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS TO EXPIRE ON OR BEFORE NOON.
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST OF MO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WARMER SW LLVL
FLOW TO RETURN. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ACR THE
WRN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ERN GRIDS STILL REMAINING QUITE COLD.
HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HAVING TO REISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...HAVE CONCERN THAT THE WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET
CRITERIA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER IN NW UPPER FLOW ONCE AGAIN INITIATES LEE TROUGHING.
DESPITE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS
IS QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY CALL FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER.
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CALL FOR
RISING TEMPS AFT MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
DB
MEDIUM RANGE /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO OUR EAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH EACH SYSTEM HAVING LESS OF A WX IMPACT. WITH THE MORE EAST
TRAJECTORY OF THE SFC WAVES...CAA BEHIND EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY TO AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...WILL ALLOW FOR
A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS FOR MID WEEK...BUT
IT IS LIKELY THAT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS IS EBBING...SO WILL
START OFF WITH NO GUSTS IN THE TAFS...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE SOME
MINOR GUSTS THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...AS CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA.
PC
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-
MOZ008-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-
MOZ003-MOZ004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-
MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
MOZ053-MOZ054.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 142239
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
439 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/438 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE REMAINS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
DRIVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
1045MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHEAST IOWA BY AROUND 21Z THURSDAY. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS THIS HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ARE PREVAILING AT THIS TIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THIS HIGH. WHILE SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY...SNOW
FIELDS TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA SHOULD KEEP THIS
AIRMASS VERY...VERY...VERY COLD. GENERALLY WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
ALL AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHILE WE`RE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS HIGH.
ADDING INSULT TO INJURY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM -15 TO -30 ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL BE UPGRADING NORTHERN TIER OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO A WARNING...AND EXTENDING THE TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE REMAINING ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ADVISORY WILL START
AT 03Z FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS
BEGINNING AT 06Z TONIGHT. ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 18Z THURSDAY...THO SOME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA MAY NEED AN
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP IN THE 12-14KT RANGE WHICH
WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS VERY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE.
WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR MORE
HEADLINES TOMORROW AFTERNOON RATHER THAN EXTENDING AT THIS TIME.
THANKFULLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTIONS OF THESE SHORTWAVES WHICH WILL BRING IN QUICK SHOTS OF
COLD AIR...BUT THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN 1/4
OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLDEST AIR BOTTLED UP OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EACH SHORTWAVE HAS SOME
WEAK SIGNALS FOR PRECIP AND VERY LIGHT QPF BEING SPAT OUT BY THE
MODELS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
GINORMOUS ARCTIC HIGH THAT I`M RELUCTANT TO INTRO PRECIP AT THIS
TIME. WILL KEEP THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
CARNEY
&&
.AVIATION...
/1143 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
SURFACE LOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. SMALL BAND OF STRATO CU ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
30-35 KFT COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH IOWA
BEHIND THE FRONT AND DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FLOW. WILL WATCH CLOSELY IF
THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST CONSIDERING OF AMDENDING THE STL TAF FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
REACH 25 TO 35 KTS. WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY
FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL RELAX THE WINDS A
LITTLE QUICKER AT COU LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WE WILL RELAX THE
WINDS AFTER 0600 UTC FOR THE REMAINING SITES. STILL DON`T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. LATEST WX
DEPICTION SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MN IA AREA DUE TO THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH AND SUBIDENCE FLOW
OVER THIS REGION.
RP
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE.
GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-
RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-
MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR RANDOLPH IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 142137
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
337 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH TONIGHT
RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS OVR THE SOUTHERN CWA TO 5 TO 15 BELOW NEAR
THE IOWA ORDER. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE WIND CHILLS FROM 25 TO 30 BELOW ACR XTRM
NCNTRL MO. ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILLS READINGS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST 15
BELOW. HAVE ADJUSTED ADVISORY AND WARNINGS TO ADJUST TO THE LATEST
TRENDS OF OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST
TOWARD MO. POOR JANUARY INSOLATION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLOW RISE IN
TEMPS ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE DECREASING WINDS...WILL ALLOW
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS TO EXPIRE ON OR BEFORE NOON.
SFC RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST OF MO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WARMER SW LLVL
FLOW TO RETURN. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ACR THE
WRN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ERN GRIDS STILL REMAINING QUITE COLD.
HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT HAVING TO REISSUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NRN PARTS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...HAVE CONCERN THAT THE WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET
CRITERIA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER IN NW UPPER FLOW ONCE AGAIN INITIATES LEE TROUGHING.
DESPITE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AIR MASS
IS QUITE DRY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY CALL FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER.
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A SMALL DROP IN
TEMPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CALL FOR
RISING TEMPS AFT MIDNIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
DB
MEDIUM RANGE /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS TO OUR EAST THIS WEEKEND
WITH EACH SYSTEM HAVING LESS OF A WX IMPACT. WITH THE MORE EAST
TRAJECTORY OF THE SFC WAVES...CAA BEHIND EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE RATHER WEAK. THEREFORE...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY TO AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS...WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT RISE
IN TEMPS. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS FOR MID- WEEK...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
DB
&&
.AVIATION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN
13KTS.
DB
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-
MOZ008-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-
MOZ004.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-
MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
MOZ053-MOZ054.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 142015
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IN THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW.
GAGAN
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS WELL UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE IN A
NEAR FREE FALL AT THIS HOUR. AFTER AN EARLY DAY HIGH IN THE LOW
40S...TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 20S AND DROPPING ON THE
ORDER OR 5F TO 7F PER HOUR. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND WITH THE CENTER OF THIS
ARCTIC HIGH IS JUST NOW NOSING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIGID. NO MINCING WORDS HERE AS
THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO IN NEB/IA I HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST MOS
GUIDANCE (MET/FWC) THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH A LACK OF SNOW
COVER WE WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. CAA WILL BE MAINTAINED THURSDAY AND RELINQUISH A BIT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH NOT MUCH RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 15F TO 20F RANGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY DECENT DIURNAL SWING ON FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. SHOULD OBSERVE A PRETTY DECENT
GRADIENT WIND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOLING AND HAVE WARMED LOWS ACCORDINGLY. THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AFTER OBSERVING THE WARM
UP AHEAD OF TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCREASED HIGH TO WELL INTO THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS. ONCE AGAIN A
DEARTH OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN A
BIT WITH RIDGING OUT WEST FLATTENING AND SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NATION. HOW THIS HAPPENS REMAINS UP TO SOME DEBATE...BUT
ANY WAY ONE SLICES IT THE MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A
WARMING TREND IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE MIDWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S POSSIBLE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT CONTINUES
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...AS A RESULT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...AS IT
IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF ST. LOUIS MISSOURI TO
JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
PUSH SOUTH TODAY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
WISE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 141948
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
148 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS THROUGH THE AREA AND THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS WELL UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE IN A
NEAR FREE FALL AT THIS HOUR. AFTER AN EARLY DAY HIGH IN THE LOW
40S...TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE LOWER 20S AND DROPPING ON THE
ORDER OR 5F TO 7F PER HOUR. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY...AND WITH THE CENTER OF THIS
ARCTIC HIGH IS JUST NOW NOSING IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF TOMORROW.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIGID. NO MINCING WORDS HERE AS
THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ALREADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO IN NEB/IA I HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST MOS
GUIDANCE (MET/FWC) THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH A LACK OF SNOW
COVER WE WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT. CAA WILL BE MAINTAINED THURSDAY AND RELINQUISH A BIT BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH NOT MUCH RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 15F TO 20F RANGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SHOULD SEE A PRETTY DECENT DIURNAL SWING ON FRIDAY AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. SHOULD OBSERVE A PRETTY DECENT
GRADIENT WIND FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COOLING AND HAVE WARMED LOWS ACCORDINGLY. THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AFTER OBSERVING THE WARM
UP AHEAD OF TODAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCREASED HIGH TO WELL INTO THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS. ONCE AGAIN A
DEARTH OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THEREAFTER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN A
BIT WITH RIDGING OUT WEST FLATTENING AND SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NATION. HOW THIS HAPPENS REMAINS UP TO SOME DEBATE...BUT
ANY WAY ONE SLICES IT THE MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT A
WARMING TREND IS IN THE OFFING FOR THE MIDWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S POSSIBLE BY TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. AGREEMENT CONTINUES
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...AS A RESULT
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...AS IT
IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF ST. LOUIS MISSOURI TO
JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
PUSH SOUTH TODAY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
WISE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-080-081-083.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 141758
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1158 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/259 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
NEXT SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THIS MORNING...IS
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW AND TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE MOTHER LODE OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASSES SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CLIPPER...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OCCURRING TONIGHT...THURSDAY....AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS BY MID MORNING...THEN INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO
AREA AROUND NOON AND REST OF CWA BY 21Z. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING EARLY...WITH STEADY OR
FALLING TEMPS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS FOR THE LIGHT SNOW
...LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS
CREATING BONE CHILLING CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 0 TO MINUS 7
RANGE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE. SO WILL SEE WIND CHILL INDICES IN
THE ADVISORY CATEGORY...MINUS 15 TO MINUS 24 RANGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
03Z/06Z THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA.
FOR THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FAR
NORTH TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH AND SUB ZERO TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIND CHILL
INDICES IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 DEGREE RANGE OVER NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AS STRONG
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK GOOD AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
/1143 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
SURFACE LOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. SMALL BAND OF STRATO CU ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
30-35 KFT COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH IOWA
BEHIND THE FRONT AND DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FLOW. WILL WATCH CLOSELY IF
THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST CONSIDERING OF AMDENDING THE STL TAF FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDS. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
REACH 25 TO 35 KTS. WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY
FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL RELAX THE WINDS A
LITTLE QUICKER AT COU LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER WE WILL RELAX THE
WINDS AFTER 0600 UTC FOR THE REMAINING SITES. STILL DON`T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. LATEST WX
DEPICTION SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MN IA AREA DUE TO THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE NORTH AND SUBIDENCE FLOW
OVER THIS REGION.
RP
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-
RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 141719
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1119 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS BITTERLY COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS
SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS JUST ENTERED FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WITH
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO DEW POINTS IS NOT FAR
BEHIND...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY AROUND 7
AM. EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL FALL THROUGH THE
TEENS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL IOWA ALREADY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS FELL FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SUSTAINED
NEAR 30 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS THIS HIGH TO CONTINUE FOR MORE THAN
AN HOUR SO WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WINDS WILL DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND TO MEET OR EXCEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
ADVISORY SEGMENT IN FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI STARTING AROUND 03Z WITH
NEXT SEGMENT SOUTH STARTING AT 06Z. ADVISORIES WILL END THURSDAY
MORNING...16Z FOR THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT AND NOON FOR THE NORTHERN
SEGMENT.
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WITH AN ALREADY
VERY COLD START...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BEING REPLACED BY RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGGED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
NRR
&&
.AVIATION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS WITH STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN
13KTS.
DB
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-
MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ023-
MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-
MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ102-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 141717
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OCCURRED MUCH EARLIER WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVING SET UP BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SO FAR
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH TODAY AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL MO BY EARLY
MIDDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR WARMING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WARMER POCKET OF AIR WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CWA UNTIL THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. SO
AM GOING MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND FRONT.
ARCTIC AIR REALLY MOVES IN TONIGHT AND SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST LOCATIONS. GUSTY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MY
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO WILL BE GOING WITH A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM 06Z-18Z THU.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20 IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HAVE
DROPPED LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND 0 TO 5
DEGREES FOR THE WEST.
WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY THOUGH AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEGINS. HAVE STILL UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY WARM MAV) FOR FRIDAY AS IT SEEMS A BIT
UNREASONABLE TO GO FROM LOW SINGLE DIGIT LOWS TO THE MID 40S.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...AS IT
IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF ST. LOUIS MISSOURI TO
JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
PUSH SOUTH TODAY AS IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DROP BEHIND THE
FRONT. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
WISE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-080-081-083.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 141155
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
555 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/259 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
NEXT SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THIS MORNING...IS
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW AND TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE MOTHER LODE OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASSES SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CLIPPER...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OCCURRING TONIGHT...THURSDAY....AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS BY MID MORNING...THEN INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO
AREA AROUND NOON AND REST OF CWA BY 21Z. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING EARLY...WITH STEADY OR
FALLING TEMPS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS FOR THE LIGHT SNOW
...LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS
CREATING BONE CHILLING CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 0 TO MINUS 7
RANGE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE. SO WILL SEE WIND CHILL INDICES IN
THE ADVISORY CATEGORY...MINUS 15 TO MINUS 24 RANGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
03Z/06Z THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA.
FOR THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FAR
NORTH TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH AND SUB ZERO TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIND CHILL
INDICES IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 DEGREE RANGE OVER NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AS STRONG
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK GOOD AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
/541 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...APRS THAT SFC CNTR OF THIS MRNGS CLIPPER WL BE
MOVING JUST N OF UIN NXT HOUR OR TWO AND THEN INTO S IN BY MIDDAY...WITH
ARCTIC FNT ROARING S IN THE WAKE OF THE SYS. LEADING EDGE OF THE
TRUE ARCTIC AMS HAS BEEN LAGGING SFC TROF OVRNGT BUT THINK THAT IT
WL CATCH UP WITH THE TROF AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES. WENT WITH A
COMBO OF EXTRAPOLATION AND LCL WRF FOR TIMING OF FROPA ACR AREA.
VFR CONDS SHUD PREVAIL ALG AND AHD OF FRONT...BUT JUDGING FROM
CONDITIONS ACR NE AND IA ERY TDA EXPECTING A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF POST-
FNTL CLDS WITH LO VFR/MVFR CIGS. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SM LGT
SNOW/SNW FLURRIES...SCPLY IN UIN...WHICH SHUD TAKE VSBYS TO MVFR
AND BRFLY IFR. BEGAN TO BRK UP THE CLDS LT THIS AFTN AND ERY THIS
EVE...WITH A GRDL DCR IN WINDS DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.
TRUETT
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-
RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KEAX 141136
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS BITTERLY COLD TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS
SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS JUST ENTERED FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THE TRUE ARCTIC FRONT WITH
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB ZERO DEW POINTS IS NOT FAR
BEHIND...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY AROUND 7
AM. EARLY MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL FALL THROUGH THE
TEENS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL IOWA ALREADY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPS FELL FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SUSTAINED
NEAR 30 MPH. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS THIS HIGH TO CONTINUE FOR MORE THAN
AN HOUR SO WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND ADVISORY. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL PRECLUDE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WINDS WILL DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH AXIS PUSHES SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH WIND TO MEET OR EXCEED WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
ADVISORY SEGMENT IN FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI STARTING AROUND 03Z WITH
NEXT SEGMENT SOUTH STARTING AT 06Z. ADVISORIES WILL END THURSDAY
MORNING...16Z FOR THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT AND NOON FOR THE NORTHERN
SEGMENT.
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI...TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WITH AN ALREADY
VERY COLD START...EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF NORTHERN MISSOURI.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...BEING REPLACED BY RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
IS PROGGED FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
NRR
&&
.AVIATION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING THROUGH THE KSTJ TERMINAL AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME WITH STRONG WINDS LAGGING SLIGHTLY. WITH FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BARREL SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE TERMINALS
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NOTED UPSTREAM AND SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK SLIDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND EXPECT THIS DECK TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. OBS
UPSTREAM INDICATING AROUND 3KFT BASE TO THE STRATUS DECK AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THIS THINKING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BREAKS
BEGINNING TO APPEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND BUFR SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS SPREADING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.
HAVE INDICATED MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BEFORE FILLING IN AGAIN TOWARDS EVENING. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH SFC WINDS SLACKENING TO
AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
DEROCHE
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ006-MOZ007-MOZ008-
MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ017-MOZ023-
MOZ024-MOZ025.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ039-
MOZ040-MOZ046.
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR
KSZ025-KSZ102.
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 141128
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OCCURRED MUCH EARLIER WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVING SET UP BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SO FAR
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH TODAY AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL MO BY EARLY
MIDDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR WARMING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WARMER POCKET OF AIR WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CWA UNTIL THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. SO
AM GOING MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND FRONT.
ARCTIC AIR REALLY MOVES IN TONIGHT AND SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST LOCATIONS. GUSTY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MY
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO WILL BE GOING WITH A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM 06Z-18Z THU.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20 IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HAVE
DROPPED LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND 0 TO 5
DEGREES FOR THE WEST.
WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY THOUGH AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEGINS. HAVE STILL UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY WARM MAV) FOR FRIDAY AS IT SEEMS A BIT
UNREASONABLE TO GO FROM LOW SINGLE DIGIT LOWS TO THE MID 40S.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
STRONG WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH BOTH JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD SOMETIME AROUND
MID DAY...16-19Z. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY SWINGING TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING.
STRONG AND GUSTY SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PILOTS WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH MID
MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT...UPPER AIR RAOB THIS MORNING MEASURED
49 KNOTS AT 1600 FT.
REGARDING CLOUD COVER...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN WELL
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY. NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
CRAMER
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-080-081-083.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 140902
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
302 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/259 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009/
NEXT SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA THIS MORNING...IS
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW AND TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE MOTHER LODE OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASSES SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
CLIPPER...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OCCURRING TONIGHT...THURSDAY....AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS BY MID MORNING...THEN INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO
AREA AROUND NOON AND REST OF CWA BY 21Z. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGH TEMPS OCCURRING EARLY...WITH STEADY OR
FALLING TEMPS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS FOR THE LIGHT SNOW
...LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS
CREATING BONE CHILLING CONDITIONS. WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 0 TO MINUS 7
RANGE FAR NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF THIS AREA. WINDS WILL BE
BRISK FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT
TIMES...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE. SO WILL SEE WIND CHILL INDICES IN
THE ADVISORY CATEGORY...MINUS 15 TO MINUS 24 RANGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
03Z/06Z THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA.
FOR THURSDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FAR
NORTH TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH AND SUB ZERO TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIND CHILL
INDICES IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 DEGREE RANGE OVER NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AS STRONG
RIDGE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
BEYOND THAT...EXTENDED GRIDS LOOK GOOD AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
/1103 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...S-SELY SFC WNDS WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE SFC RDG CURRENTLY EXTDG FM ERN IL SW
THRU ERN TX MOVES SEWD AND THE SFC LOW OVER SERN NEBRASKA DROPS
SEWD THRU NERN MO ARND 12Z WED. WITH LOW-MID LVL WAA INCRSG ACRS
THE AREA LT TGT AHD OF THE APPROACHING NW FLOW SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MID LVL CLOUDS WILL CONT TO SPREAD SEWD THRU
THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL LWRG OF THE CLOUD CEILING. MAY FCST SOME
LGT SNOW IN UIN LT TGT ALTHOUGH IT APRS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
FALL N AND E OF UIN. THE SFC WND WILL SHIFT ARND TO A NWLY
DIRECTION BY LT WED MRNG BHND THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
THE SFC WND WILL BCM STG AND GUSTY LT WED MRNG AND AFTN AS THE STG
ARCTIC SFC RDG BLDS SEWD THRU THE CWA WED AFTN. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO ARND
2000 FT IN UIN...STL AND SUS WED AFTN WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE
WND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DCRS WED NGT ALONG WITH THE LOW LVL
CLOUD CEILING SCATTERING OUT.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-
RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR KNOX-LEWIS-MARION-SHELBY.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KSGF 140819
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
219 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OCCURRED MUCH EARLIER WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAVING SET UP BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SO FAR
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ARCTIC FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ARCTIC BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH TODAY AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL MO BY EARLY
MIDDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR WARMING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WARMER POCKET OF AIR WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CWA UNTIL THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. SO
AM GOING MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND FRONT.
ARCTIC AIR REALLY MOVES IN TONIGHT AND SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST LOCATIONS. GUSTY NORTHWEST-NORTH WINDS
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MY
NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. SO WILL BE GOING WITH A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM 06Z-18Z THU.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE 20 IN MOST AREAS. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HAVE
DROPPED LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND 0 TO 5
DEGREES FOR THE WEST.
WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY THOUGH AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEGINS. HAVE STILL UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY WARM MAV) FOR FRIDAY AS IT SEEMS A BIT
UNREASONABLE TO GO FROM LOW SINGLE DIGIT LOWS TO THE MID 40S.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER/MID MS
VLY REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING 1500-1800 UTC.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
EVENING/15 JAN 0000 UTC. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-080-081-083.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KSGF 140550
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING BOTTOMED
OUT IN THE LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS. THIS IS A
TASTE OF WHAT WILL BE COMING INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE TOMORROW.
AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS RESULTED IN SOME REBOUND OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH
READINGS IN THE 20S AREA WIDE AT THIS HOUR.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. BROAD AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS IS
BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME. SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND WASTE NO TIME SURGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY...VERY TRICKY BOTH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP. IN SPITE OF LOW DEW POINTS...STEADY
WINDS OF 10KT OR GREATER WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN TEMPS.
AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH STEADY/SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL ON
LOWS...BUT CAN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TEENS OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS
AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER IN THAT AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
DAYBREAK AND THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND LIMITED MIXING FURTHER
COMPLICATE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT
MOST AREAS SHOULD REACH THEIR HIGHS BY MIDDAY...RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 30S IN CENTRAL MO TO THE LOWER 40S IN SOUTHERN MO.
READINGS SHOULD DROP STEADILY IN CENTRAL MO DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER DROP ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL
RESULT IN WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
CONSISTENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY AND
BELOW ZERO AT NIGHT. FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES...TEMPERATURES IN MN
WERE IN THE -20F TO -40F RANGE AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SPREADING WELL INTO MO. THE AIRMASS
MOVING IN LOOKS TO BE COLDER. AS A RESULT...IT LOOKS LIKE AIR
TEMPERATURE LOWS WILL FLIRT WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. YOU LIKE TO SEE
SNOW ON THE GROUND TO ENSURE BELOW ZERO TEMPS...BUT THIS IS A
REALLY GOOD AIRMASS FULLY CAPABLE OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS WITH JUST
BARE GROUND. ALL TOLD...IT LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 48 HOURS OF FRIGID
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TOMORROW
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT MAINTAINS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GFS FIVE WAVE CHARTS SUGGEST THAT A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...
THOUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT INLAND A BIT.
AS SUCH...WE WILL REMAIN PRONE TO MORE FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE BRUNT
OF ANY COLD AIRMASSES WILL TARGET AREAS TO OUR EAST...THOUGH WE
WILL BE PRONE TO ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF COLD AIR. OVERALL...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP EXPECTED.
GAGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MO RIVER/MID MS
VLY REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING 1500-1800 UTC.
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
EVENING/15 JAN 0000 UTC. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DSA
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KEAX 140533
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES...RISING TONIGHT AND
FALLING ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH 48
HOURS...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AT
00Z TO EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF MISSOURI BY 12Z. STILL A
POTENTIAL OF SNOW ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW...WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE IOWA BORDER.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED TO THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY 12Z WED. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WE WILL BE WAA
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE ALL NIGHT LONG. TOUGH CALL ON
LOWS...WHICH WILL BE OCCURRING EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STRONGER
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. ALREADY SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE THE WINDS HAVE
INCREASED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH LLJ INCREASING AND
LACK OF A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH THE WAA.
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...AND EXPECTED
SC DECK WITH THE INITIAL COLD SURGE...MAY STILL HAVE SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOWS A
LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING UP TO AROUND 800 MB THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS. VERY DRY AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEART OF THE COLD
SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO REACH AT LEAST ADVISORY
CRITERIA. GIVEN THIS IS STILL OVER 24 HOURS AWAY...WILL LET MIDNIGHT
SHIFT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.
DESPITE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AS CAA
CONTINUES...AND WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY. ALSO WILL GO BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS FEEL WITH RETURN FLOW NOT SETTING
UP UNTIL TOWARD 12Z...THERE WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY AND SOME MINOR WAA MAY CAUSE A
SLIGHT RISE IN THOSE AREAS TOWARD MORNING.
PC
MEDIUM RANGE /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SEMI-PERMANENT
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH
LACK OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SERN CONUS AND NORTH
PACIFIC LIMIT THE NUMERICAL REFLECTION OF A STRONGER POSITIVE PNA
MEASURE...DESPITE SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES GREATER THAN
3 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATION EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
THROUGH NWRN CANADA. AS IS TYPICAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...SUITE OF
MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE TIMING AND WWD POSITIONING OF
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND CLIPPER-TYPE FRONTS DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS THIS MODEL HAS PERFORMED MUCH
BETTER THROUGH THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...AND NOW HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS (THOUGH DIFFERENCES ARE MINOR FOR MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE). REGARDLESS...THIS FLOW PATTERN OVERWHELMINGLY
INDICATES BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS...WITH
RAPID SWINGS BETWEEN BELOW AVERAGE AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER THE SERN
CONUS...FEEL THE ARRAY OF SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
QUICKLY AND MORE PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE
VORTEX ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ERN CANADA...PLACING THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN A POSITION OF VERY STEEP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS...WITH DOWNSLOPING WARMING CHINOOK TYPE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS (LOCATED ON THE ANTI-CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET
AXIS)...AND COLD CORE CYCLONIC FLOW SITUATED OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES.
GIVEN THE INITIAL COLD AIRMASS AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH SETTLED
INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...FEEL ANY AMOUNT OF RETURN
FLOW WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY DISLODGING THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR.
THEREFORE...HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS THE COLDEST SIDE OF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT SOME
PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY MIDLEVEL WAA FRIDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY HYDROMETEORS FROM
REACHING THE SFC...THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY WEATHER HERE. PARADE
OF SHORTWAVES AND WEAK CLIPPER FRONTS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REGION AT A RATE OF ABOUT ONE PER DAY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANY
SINGLE FROPA COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW FLURRIES IN A POST
FRONTAL REGIME (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NERN CWA)...THOUGH PINNING
DOWN ANY EXACT TIMING APPEARS FRUITLESS AT THIS POINT...AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY FLURRY MENTION...VERSUS A RELENTLESS WEATHER MENTION
FOR A FAR TOO LONG A PERIOD IN A NON-MEASURABLE EVENT.
HOWEVER...EACH SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ACT TO SLOWLY
NUDGE THE JET AXIS AND ERN VORTEX TOWARDS THE COAST. THUS...EACH
AIRMASS DIVING SOUTH WILL BE LESS COLD THAN THE LAST...AND EACH
SUBSEQUENT DOWNSLOPING EVENT WILL BRING MORE WARMTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS. THUS...GRADUALLY TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD...AND TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF
GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
INEVITABLE BREAKDOWN OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WILL OCCUR JUST
AFTER THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...AS AN ENERGIZED CNTRL PACIFIC JET
STREAM AND EQUATORWARD PROPAGATION OF LOWER HEIGHTS HELPS UNDERCUT
THE POLEWARD AND WWD RETROGRADING WRN CONUS RIDGE. SERN CANADIAN
VORTEX WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE...FORCING MORE ZONAL FLOW
(AND HENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES) ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS.
QUITE INTERESTING TO NOTE THE RECENT FLARE-UP OF MORE PERSISTENT
WEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CONVECTION...MANIFESTED IN A MORE NOTABLE MJO
MEASURE OF LATE (ORGANIZED MJO ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NEARLY ABSENT FOR
THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF). HEMISPHERIC IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
DENOTES FAIRLY ROBUST DISPERSION OF ENERGY INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC (WHICH WILL PARTIALLY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE POSITIVE PNA BREAKDOWN). SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE
FURTHER ORGANIZATION TO THE MJO CLUSTER (WITH MORE INFLUENCE FROM H2
VELOCITY POTENTIAL AND H8 WIND ANOMALIES)...PROPAGATING EWD INTO THE
PACIFIC. THIS WOULD FURTHER PERTURB THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE PACIFIC BASIN...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A LA NINA BASE STATE
AND NEGATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM MEASURES (WITH AAM
TENDENCIES RECENTLY TURNING MORE NEGATIVE - POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED ELY ANOMALIES IN THE TROPICS)...WOULD SUPPORT THE
ADJUSTMENT OF RIDGING TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND GULF OF
ALASKA...AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE BREAKING INTO THE WRN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEGIN TO PICK UP ON THIS
TREND...THOUGH UNDERSTANDABLY CARRY LARGE SPREADS IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE DEPTH AND POSITIONING OF BREAKING WRN CONUS WAVES.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AROUND 09Z. MEANWHILE...WINDS
RIGHT OFF THE DECK ARE ALREADY SCREAMING AT 50 KNOTS PER LATHROP
PROFILER...AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FULLY MIXING WITH THE POST-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER 12Z.
WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTED STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS TO OCCUR WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. POCKETS OF MOISTURE CHANNELED BEHIND THE LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS BY MID MORNING (ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VFR
CEILINGS PERIODICALLY). FOR NOW HAVE KEPT CEILINGS ABOVE 2KFT
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE TO AVOID THE FUEL ALTERATE AS ONLY ONE SUITE
OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL RH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PERMIT
CLOUDS IN THE 1500 TO 2000 FT LAYER.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z.
BOOKBINDER
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KLSX 140514
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009
.UPDATE...
/923 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/ GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
PLAN NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUNS OF RUC/NAM INDICATES
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOW WILL STAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF CWA
TONIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF MID LEVEL VORT CENTER/FRONTOGENESIS/QPF.
WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUINCY TO VANDALIA
LINE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO RISE OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY SPREADING
EASTWARD AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE INCREASING AS HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD.
BRITT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/315 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/
THE FORECAST WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING OF THE BIG ARCTIC BLAST
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK. OVERALL JUST SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST GRIDDS. A DEEP LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHRTWVS AND ATTENDANT FRONTS MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT AND ONE OF MAJOR INTEREST IS FCST
TO COMING SURGING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE PERHAPS THE MOST DIFFICULT PERIODS...NAMELY THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR
THE MS RVR AT 00Z TONIGHT SHIFTING EWD DURING THE EVENING WITH SLY
WINDS INCREASING AND WAA ENSUING. WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT/LOW ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO MISSOURI AND THE
CLOUDS IN TANDEM WITH THE SLY WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS
AFTER AN EARLY EVENING FALL. THERE IS A NICE AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO WAA AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV TROF. ALL OF THE EXPLICIT WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS
HAVE THIS CLIPPING THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. THE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON WED MORNING ARE THE
TRICKY PART TO THE HIGHS ON WED. I THINK THE MOS IS A LITTLE COLD
ACROSS THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...BUT REGARDLESS THE TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT BLASTS THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG CAA AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET ON WED NIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. I HAVE LEANED FAIRLY
HEAVILY TOWARDS THE COLDER MAV GUIDANCE. THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE
FROM YESTERDAY VERIFYING THIS MORNING WAS TOO WARM WITH THIS
FIRST ARCTIC SURGE. THESE VERY COLD TEMPS AND THE WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THURS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. ATTM HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THE HWO
AND FCST CONTS TO HIT THE COLD HARD. COLDEST MORNING STILL LOOKS
TO BE FRI AS THE 1045+ MB HIGHS SETTLES SOUTH THRU THE MID MS VLY.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
/1103 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...S-SELY SFC WNDS WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE SFC RDG CURRENTLY EXTDG FM ERN IL SW
THRU ERN TX MOVES SEWD AND THE SFC LOW OVER SERN NEBRASKA DROPS
SEWD THRU NERN MO ARND 12Z WED. WITH LOW-MID LVL WAA INCRSG ACRS
THE AREA LT TGT AHD OF THE APPROACHING NW FLOW SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MID LVL CLOUDS WILL CONT TO SPREAD SEWD THRU
THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL LWRG OF THE CLOUD CEILING. MAY FCST SOME
LGT SNOW IN UIN LT TGT ALTHOUGH IT APRS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
FALL N AND E OF UIN. THE SFC WND WILL SHIFT ARND TO A NWLY
DIRECTION BY LT WED MRNG BHND THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
THE SFC WND WILL BCM STG AND GUSTY LT WED MRNG AND AFTN AS THE STG
ARCTIC SFC RDG BLDS SEWD THRU THE CWA WED AFTN. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO ARND
2000 FT IN UIN...STL AND SUS WED AFTN WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE
WND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DCRS WED NGT ALONG WITH THE LOW LVL
CLOUD CEILING SCATTERING OUT.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 140514
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009
.UPDATE...
/923 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/ GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
PLAN NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUNS OF RUC/NAM INDICATES
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOW WILL STAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF CWA
TONIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF MID LEVEL VORT CENTER/FRONTOGENESIS/QPF.
WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUINCY TO VANDALIA
LINE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO RISE OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY SPREADING
EASTWARD AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE INCREASING AS HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD.
BRITT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/315 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/
THE FORECAST WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING OF THE BIG ARCTIC BLAST
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK. OVERALL JUST SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST GRIDDS. A DEEP LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHRTWVS AND ATTENDANT FRONTS MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT AND ONE OF MAJOR INTEREST IS FCST
TO COMING SURGING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE PERHAPS THE MOST DIFFICULT PERIODS...NAMELY THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR
THE MS RVR AT 00Z TONIGHT SHIFTING EWD DURING THE EVENING WITH SLY
WINDS INCREASING AND WAA ENSUING. WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT/LOW ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO MISSOURI AND THE
CLOUDS IN TANDEM WITH THE SLY WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS
AFTER AN EARLY EVENING FALL. THERE IS A NICE AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO WAA AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV TROF. ALL OF THE EXPLICIT WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS
HAVE THIS CLIPPING THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. THE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON WED MORNING ARE THE
TRICKY PART TO THE HIGHS ON WED. I THINK THE MOS IS A LITTLE COLD
ACROSS THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...BUT REGARDLESS THE TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT BLASTS THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG CAA AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET ON WED NIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. I HAVE LEANED FAIRLY
HEAVILY TOWARDS THE COLDER MAV GUIDANCE. THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE
FROM YESTERDAY VERIFYING THIS MORNING WAS TOO WARM WITH THIS
FIRST ARCTIC SURGE. THESE VERY COLD TEMPS AND THE WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THURS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. ATTM HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THE HWO
AND FCST CONTS TO HIT THE COLD HARD. COLDEST MORNING STILL LOOKS
TO BE FRI AS THE 1045+ MB HIGHS SETTLES SOUTH THRU THE MID MS VLY.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
/1103 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...S-SELY SFC WNDS WILL CONT TO STRENGTHEN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE SFC RDG CURRENTLY EXTDG FM ERN IL SW
THRU ERN TX MOVES SEWD AND THE SFC LOW OVER SERN NEBRASKA DROPS
SEWD THRU NERN MO ARND 12Z WED. WITH LOW-MID LVL WAA INCRSG ACRS
THE AREA LT TGT AHD OF THE APPROACHING NW FLOW SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MID LVL CLOUDS WILL CONT TO SPREAD SEWD THRU
THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL LWRG OF THE CLOUD CEILING. MAY FCST SOME
LGT SNOW IN UIN LT TGT ALTHOUGH IT APRS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
FALL N AND E OF UIN. THE SFC WND WILL SHIFT ARND TO A NWLY
DIRECTION BY LT WED MRNG BHND THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
THE SFC WND WILL BCM STG AND GUSTY LT WED MRNG AND AFTN AS THE STG
ARCTIC SFC RDG BLDS SEWD THRU THE CWA WED AFTN. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO ARND
2000 FT IN UIN...STL AND SUS WED AFTN WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE
WND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DCRS WED NGT ALONG WITH THE LOW LVL
CLOUD CEILING SCATTERING OUT.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
000
FXUS63 KLSX 140323
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
923 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009
.UPDATE...
/923 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/ GOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
PLAN NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUNS OF RUC/NAM INDICATES
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOW WILL STAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF CWA
TONIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF MID LEVEL VORT CENTER/FRONTOGENESIS/QPF.
WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUINCY TO VANDALIA
LINE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY STARTED
TO RISE OVER MOST OF THE CWA AS CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY SPREADING
EASTWARD AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE INCREASING AS HIGH
RETREATS EASTWARD.
BRITT
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/315 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/
THE FORECAST WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING OF THE BIG ARCTIC BLAST
REMAINS PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON TRACK. OVERALL JUST SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST GRIDDS. A DEEP LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHRTWVS AND ATTENDANT FRONTS MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT AND ONE OF MAJOR INTEREST IS FCST
TO COMING SURGING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE PERHAPS THE MOST DIFFICULT PERIODS...NAMELY THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE SFC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR
THE MS RVR AT 00Z TONIGHT SHIFTING EWD DURING THE EVENING WITH SLY
WINDS INCREASING AND WAA ENSUING. WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT/LOW ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO MISSOURI AND THE
CLOUDS IN TANDEM WITH THE SLY WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO RISING TEMPS
AFTER AN EARLY EVENING FALL. THERE IS A NICE AREA OF SNOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO WAA AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHRTWV TROF. ALL OF THE EXPLICIT WRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFS
HAVE THIS CLIPPING THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. THE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WAA AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ON WED MORNING ARE THE
TRICKY PART TO THE HIGHS ON WED. I THINK THE MOS IS A LITTLE COLD
ACROSS THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...BUT REGARDLESS THE TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT BLASTS THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG CAA AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 35 MPH.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET ON WED NIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. I HAVE LEANED FAIRLY
HEAVILY TOWARDS THE COLDER MAV GUIDANCE. THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE
FROM YESTERDAY VERIFYING THIS MORNING WAS TOO WARM WITH THIS
FIRST ARCTIC SURGE. THESE VERY COLD TEMPS AND THE WINDS WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THURS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. ATTM HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT THESE WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THE HWO
AND FCST CONTS TO HIT THE COLD HARD. COLDEST MORNING STILL LOOKS
TO BE FRI AS THE 1045+ MB HIGHS SETTLES SOUTH THRU THE MID MS VLY.
GLASS
&&
.AVIATION...
/546 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LGT SFC WNDS WILL BCM S-SELY LTR THIS EVNG AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE SFC RDG CURRENTLY EXTDG
FM IL SW THRU ERN TX MOVES SEWD AND THE SFC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
DROPS SEWD THRU SWRN IA ARND 06Z WED AND THRU NERN MO ARND 12Z WED.
WITH LOW-MID LVL WAA INCRSG ACRS THE AREA AHD OF THE APPROACHING
NW FLOW SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MID LVL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
SEWD THRU THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL LWRG OF THE CLOUD CEILING. MAY BE
SOME LGT SNOW IN UIN LT TGT ALTHOUGH LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW AS IT APRS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL N AND E OF UIN. THE
SFC WND WILL SHIFT ARND TO A NWLY DIRECTION BY LT WED MRNG BHND
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE SFC WND WILL BCM STG AND
GUSTY LT WED MRNG AND AFTN AS THE STG ARCTIC SFC RDG BLDS SEWD
THRU THE CWA WED AFTN. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POST FRONTAL
STRATUS CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO ARND 2000 FT IN
UIN...STL AND SUS WED AFTN WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
GKS
&&
.CLIMATE...
LAST TIME LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW ZERO
STL...JAN 5 1999 -5
COU...FEB 16 2007 -1
UIN...DEC 22 2008 -2
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
| 
