[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 152325
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF THE NORTH CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL
BE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS OF CHURCHILL AND PERSHING
COUNTIES...AND VALLEYS FROM PYRAMID LAKE TO NORTH OF GERLACH. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
SOUTHERN NV TONIGHT INCREASING THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MAY LIMIT HOW
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE. NOT EXPECTING TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW ONE MILE BY TOMORROW MORNING. SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN
REACH INTO THE MID 50S OVER WESTERN NV AND UPPER 50S IN HIGH
SIERRA LOCATIONS.
FOG IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS NV.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO AND
ACROSS NORTHERN NV AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO OFF THE
CA COAST BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR GRID TWEAKS IN THE EXTENDED.
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGING CENTERED
OVER EASTERN IDAHO OR WESTERN MONTANA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BREAK
DOWN AND THEN RE-DEVELOP OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AS THE RIDGE RE-DEVELOPS TO THE WEST...CUTOFF ENERGY IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SNEAK UNDER THE RIDGE INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WHILE THERE IS AGREEMENT TO THE GENERAL PATTERN
OF ENERGY SNEAKING UNDER THE RIDGE...EXACT TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS GET A BIT SKETCHY (AS IS EXPECTED WITH CUTOFF LOWS AT DAYS
6-7). THEREFORE...IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE BASIN. IN ANY CASE...THE SYSTEM IS NO
BLOCKBUSTER WITH ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP PROGGED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF.
FOR THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF LOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN
NEVADA AND UTAH BUT THE ECMWF HANGS IT BACK OVER OUR CWA. WITH
UNCERTAINTY...I LEFT THE BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE.
SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WHERE
LATE NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS...WHICH FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE FOR THE VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A
PYRAMID LAKE TO FALLON LINE. ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
18Z...WITH STRATUS BREAKING UP BY 21Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST
NEVADA AND UTAH. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 151835
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1035 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.UPDATE...
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG HAS BEEN DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM LOVELOCK TO WINNEMUCCA
CAN EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS 1 MILE THROUGH NOON. AREAS FROM PYRAMID LAKE...NORTH
TO GERLACH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY FOG THROUGH NOON.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN
WESTERN NV AND UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009/
UPDATE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE SINKS THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY. OBSERVATIONS AT FALLON AND LOVELOCK ARE REPORTING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. FOG HAS LIKELY DEVELOPED IN THE BLACK ROCK
AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS NEAR GERLACH...BASED ON HUMIDITY OF 100%
IN THE AREA. VISIBLE IMAGES AND WEB CAMS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
ALSO SHOWED LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THIS AREA.
THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR I-80
EAST OF FERNLEY...US-95 FROM FALLON NORTHWARD AND ALONG HIGHWAY
447 FROM I-80 NORTH TO GERLACH UNTIL 10AM.
ALSO PUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME NORTHEAST WIND AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THAT MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AS THIS MORNING.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT BY 515 AM. BRONG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG NEAR
LOVELOVK AND FALLON. CONDITIONS AT TRUCKEE HAVE DRIED TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
[top]
000
FXUS65 KLKN 151829
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1029 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND
LANDER COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
&&
.UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS ENOUGH OF THE AREA TO
ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. EVEN SO...THE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND DRIVERS SHOULD BE
AWARE THAT A RAPID REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY CAN HAPPEN THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 208 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
RIDGE WILL GET UNDERCUT BY A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CA
ON FRI BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.
BASED ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGHS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN CWA TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE E TO NE ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHERN NV INCREASING STRENGTH OF INVERSION AND LIMITING HOW
WARM IT WILL GET. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL FLOW MOVING INTO
AREA AS WELL SO THIS WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT. DENSE FOG STILL BEING REPORTED AT KWMC THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
MONDAY...KEEPING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV DRY. MODELS SHOW SOME
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND DGEX BRING A FAIRLY COLD AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A WARMER STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BY THE SAME TIME. SINCE MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WAIT TO
ADD IN HIGHER POPS WHEN DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. TEMPS TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL PLAGUE KWMC THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING...
CREATING LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL THEN. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FREEZING
FOG IN THE VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NV
THROUGH MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS65 KVEF 151809
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1008 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME MINOR
CHANGES ALOFT OCCUR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A SLIGHT DISTURBANCE COMING
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WRAP UNDERNEATH AND
DEVELOP INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY.
ANY INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY LOWER A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY AS SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL CONTINUE DOWN PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
.LONG TERM...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS
THE PAC NW. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CUTS-OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT AND
RETROGRADES WEST UNDER THE UPPER HIGH...BUT OUTSIDE OF MAYBE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. DESPITE
MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY...ENOUGH OF A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL EXISTS TO SUPPORT LOCALLY ON AND OFF BREEZY
NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOW INDICATING INVERSIONS
SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON...SO ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.
THE RELENTLESS RIDGE LOOKS TO FINALLY BE ON THE WAY OUT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC TRIES
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. MODELS THIS FAR OUT TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH
HANDLING PATTERN CHANGES AND OFTEN BREAK DOWN STRONG RIDGES LIKE THE
ONE OVER THE WEST NOW TOO QUICK. WHILE THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE IN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP OF ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MJO
IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND HAS SHIFTED TO A POSITION
IN THE WHEELER DIAGRAM IT HAS NOT BEEN AT IN A WHILE. WITH ALL THIS
SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SW U.S. THAT WE WOULD STAY DRY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...THEN
DIURNAL SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS STARTING AROUND 02Z FRIDAY. A
CLEAR SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LESSENING SOME
FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. KVGT
COULD SEE WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ANYTIME
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 330 AND 010 DEGREES AND KDRA COULD SEE WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AT TIMES AS WELL OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THESE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CLEAR SKY PREVAILING.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
JACQUES/ADAIR/STACHELSKI
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 151252
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
452 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.UPDATE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE SINKS THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY. OBSERVATIONS AT FALLON AND LOVELOCK ARE REPORTING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. FOG HAS LIKELY DEVELOPED IN THE BLACK ROCK
AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS NEAR GERLACH...BASED ON HUMIDITY OF 100%
IN THE AREA. VISIBLE IMAGES AND WEB CAMS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
ALSO SHOWED LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THIS AREA.
THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR I-80
EAST OF FERNLEY...US-95 FROM FALLON NORTHWARD AND ALONG HIGHWAY
447 FROM I-80 NORTH TO GERLACH UNTIL 10AM.
ALSO PUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME NORTHEAST WIND AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THAT MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AS THIS MORNING.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT BY 515 AM. BRONG
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG NEAR
LOVELOVK AND FALLON. CONDITIONS AT TRUCKEE HAVE DRIED TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NVZ004-005 UNTIL 10AM.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 151106
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME MINOR CHANGES ALOFT OCCUR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WRAP UNDERNEATH AND DEVELOP INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ANY INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE MINOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY AS SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE DOWN
PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
.LONG TERM...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS
THE PAC NW. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CUTS-OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT AND
RETROGRADES WEST UNDER THE UPPER HIGH...BUT OUTSIDE OF MAYBE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. DESPITE
MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY...ENOUGH OF A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL EXISTS TO SUPPORT LOCALLY ON AND OFF BREEZY
NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOW INDICATING INVERSIONS
SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON...SO ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.
THE RELENTLESS RIDGE LOOKS TO FINALLY BE ON THE WAY OUT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC TRIES
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. MODELS THIS FAR OUT TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH
HANDLING PATTERN CHANGES AND OFTEN BREAK DOWN STRONG RIDGES LIKE THE
ONE OVER THE WEST NOW TOO QUICK. WHILE THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE IN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP OF ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MJO
IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND HAS SHIFTED TO A POSITION
IN THE WHEELER DIAGRAM IT HAS NOT BEEN AT IN A WHILE. WITH ALL THIS
SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SW U.S. THAT WE WOULD STAY DRY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...THEN
DIURNAL SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS STARTING AROUND 02Z FRIDAY. A
CLEAR SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LESSENING SOME
FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. KVGT
COULD SEE WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ANYTIME
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 330 AND 010 DEGREES AND KDRA COULD SEE WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AT TIMES AS WELL OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THESE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CLEAR SKY PREVAILING.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
ADAIR/STACHELSKI
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 151106
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE STRONG RIDGE HOLDS ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME MINOR CHANGES ALOFT OCCUR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WRAP UNDERNEATH AND DEVELOP INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. ANY INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
WILL BE MINOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY LOWER A DEGREE OR TWO
EACH DAY AS SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE...NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE DOWN
PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
.LONG TERM...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS
THE PAC NW. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CUTS-OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT AND
RETROGRADES WEST UNDER THE UPPER HIGH...BUT OUTSIDE OF MAYBE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. DESPITE
MID-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY...ENOUGH OF A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL EXISTS TO SUPPORT LOCALLY ON AND OFF BREEZY
NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOW INDICATING INVERSIONS
SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON...SO ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.
THE RELENTLESS RIDGE LOOKS TO FINALLY BE ON THE WAY OUT BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC TRIES
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. MODELS THIS FAR OUT TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH
HANDLING PATTERN CHANGES AND OFTEN BREAK DOWN STRONG RIDGES LIKE THE
ONE OVER THE WEST NOW TOO QUICK. WHILE THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE IN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP OF ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/OPERATIONAL GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MJO
IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AND HAS SHIFTED TO A POSITION
IN THE WHEELER DIAGRAM IT HAS NOT BEEN AT IN A WHILE. WITH ALL THIS
SAID...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SW U.S. THAT WE WOULD STAY DRY THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...THEN
DIURNAL SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS STARTING AROUND 02Z FRIDAY. A
CLEAR SKY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LESSENING SOME
FOR TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. KVGT
COULD SEE WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ANYTIME
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 330 AND 010 DEGREES AND KDRA COULD SEE WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AT TIMES AS WELL OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THESE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CLEAR SKY PREVAILING.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
ADAIR/STACHELSKI
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 151058 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG NEAR
LOVELOVK AND FALLON. CONDITIONS AT TRUCKEE HAVE DRIED TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 151058 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG NEAR
LOVELOVK AND FALLON. CONDITIONS AT TRUCKEE HAVE DRIED TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 151014
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG
NEAR TRUCKEE. CONDITIONS AT LOVELOCK HAVE DRIED SLIGHTLY TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 16Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KLKN 151008
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
208 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. UPPER
RIDGE WILL GET UNDERCUT BY A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CA
ON FRI BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.
BASED ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY...DECIDED TO LOWER HIGHS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN CWA TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE E TO NE ACROSS ALL
OF NORTHERN NV INCREASING STRENGTH OF INVERSION AND LIMITING HOW
WARM IT WILL GET. FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL FLOW MOVING INTO
AREA AS WELL SO THIS WILL LIMIT AMOUNT OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT. DENSE FOG STILL BEING REPORTED AT KWMC THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
MONDAY...KEEPING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV DRY. MODELS SHOW SOME
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND DGEX BRING A FAIRLY COLD AND
POTENT STORM SYSTEM DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A WARMER STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BY THE SAME TIME. SINCE MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. CONTINUED WITH IDEA OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL WAIT TO
ADD IN HIGHER POPS WHEN DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. TEMPS TO REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL PLAGUE KWMC THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING...
CREATING LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL THEN. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FREEZING
FOG IN THE VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN NV
THROUGH MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR NVZ030-036.
&&
$$
86/99/99
000
FXUS65 KLKN 150559
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
959 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AND NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING THIS DENSE FOG TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...SO THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL
10AM. NO OTHER UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL PLAGUE KWMC THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
MORNING...CREATING VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL THEN. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY
FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 221 PM /
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WEST COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WITH RIDGE FURTHER EAST SINCE YESTERDAY...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING SURFACE INVERSIONS ALONG WITH AREAS
OF VALLEY MORNING FOG. FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER THEN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SILVER STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY ARE DISAGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE PUT SOME
INDICATION OF THIS IN THE POPS...BUT MAY GO EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE IFR AND MAYBE SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT DEVELOP MORNING FREEZING FOG.
EXPECTING THESE AREAS BO BE FOUND IN MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A
FEW AREAS ALSO IN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR NVZ030-036.
&&
$$
99
000
FXUS65 KVEF 150438 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
838 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THEN AS WELL.
&&
.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK THIS EVENING. STRONG RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY
CHANGE INCLUDED AN UPDATE TO THE OWENS VALLEY WHERE RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM PST WED JAN 14...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
DESPITE SOME PATTERN CHANGES STARTING THIS WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE ON
MOVING HIGH INLAND STARTING FRIDAY AND FOR A LOW TO FORM UNDERNEATH
IT SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND BRIEFLY LOOKS TO BE A REX BLOCK THIS
SATURDAY. LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AS UPPER HIGH SETS UP NORTH OF NEVADA.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR OUR CWA. ONE ISSUE CONSIDERED
WAS THE MUCH DRYER AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE
MORNING LOW TO BE LOWER AND FOR TODAYS MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO SHOW THE BIGGER DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO THE
LOWER HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH MINIMAL DAY TO DAY CHANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONSENSUS AS TO WHAT THAT
CHANGE WILL BE. IF A REX BLOCK DOES SET UP LATE THIS WEEKEND...THERE
MAY END UP BEING VERY LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA...AND OPEN UP
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LOW PRESSURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...
DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
LINDAMAN/PIERCE/JACQUES/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 142307 CCA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THEN AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DESPITE SOME PATTERN CHANGES STARTING
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING HIGH INLAND STARTING FRIDAY AND
FOR A LOW TO FORM UNDERNEATH IT SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND BRIEFLY LOOKS
TO BE A REX BLOCK THIS SATURDAY. LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AS UPPER HIGH
SETS UP NORTH OF NEVADA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR OUR
CWA. ONE ISSUE CONSIDERED WAS THE MUCH DRYER AIR OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE MORNING LOW TO BE LOWER AND FOR TODAYS
MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED LOW
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO SHOW THE
BIGGER DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO THE LOWER HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH MINIMAL DAY TO DAY CHANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONSENSUS AS TO WHAT THAT
CHANGE WILL BE. IF A REX BLOCK DOES SET UP LATE THIS WEEKEND...THERE
MAY END UP BEING VERY LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA...AND OPEN UP
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LOW PRESSURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...
DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
JACQUES/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 142306
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THEN AA WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT
FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DESPITE SOME PATTERN CHANGES STARTING
THIS WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE ON MOVING HIGH INLAND STARTING FRIDAY AND
FOR A LOW TO FORM UNDERNEATH IT SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND BRIEFLY LOOKS
TO BE A REX BLOCK THIS SATURDAY. LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AS UPPER HIGH
SETS UP NORTH OF NEVADA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER FOR OUR
CWA. ONE ISSUE CONSIDERED WAS THE MUCH DRYER AIR OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE MORNING LOW TO BE LOWER AND FOR TODAYS
MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED LOW
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO SHOW THE
BIGGER DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO THE LOWER HUMIDITY.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH MINIMAL DAY TO DAY CHANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONSENSUS AS TO WHAT THAT
CHANGE WILL BE. IF A REX BLOCK DOES SET UP LATE THIS WEEKEND...THERE
MAY END UP BEING VERY LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA...AND OPEN UP
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LOW PRESSURE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS EXPECTED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...
DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
JACQUES/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 142242
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
242 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. CIRRUS HAS INCREASED A BIT TODAY
AND OPTED TO BUMP UP SKY COVER A FEW PERCENT. MOST OF THIS WILL
APPEAR THIN OVERNIGHT SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS LOWERED A
FEW DEGREES TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG VICINITY OF
FALLON AND LOVELOCK OVERNIGHT. PRESENCE OF SFC WATER THERE HAS
BEEN ENHANCING FOG DEVELOPMENT LAST FEW MORNINGS AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND COOL TEMPS...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FOLD OVER BY
LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MORE OF A PATTERN SHIFT BEYOND THE
EXTENDED. AS THE HIGH FOLDS OVER AND DRIFTS INLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NE THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT. SFC E TO NE FLOW SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH WRN
NV VALLEYS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN SOME SIERRA
SITES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS STATED TEMPS ARE MORE SEASONAL
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH DAY STILL AROUND AVERAGE
WITH LACK OF SIG CLOUD COVER.
WITH TRANSITION TO MORE NE THEN E FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SEE STRONGER
RIDGE GUSTS FROM THE NE AND E THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN SIERRA
BY THURSDAY AFTN. HAVE BUMPED THESE UP SLIGHTLY TO THE 35 TO 45
MPH RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CARSON COULD TRANSLATE
TO THE SFC NEAR LAKE TAHOE WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTERLIES AS
WELL. SO MAY SEE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE ALONG THE
WEST SHORE THURSDAY AFTN. RIDGES IN WRN NV NOT AS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
GUSTS AS STRONG AS THE SIERRA WITH 20 TO 25 MPH TYPICAL OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. MLF
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS.
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN/DE-AMPLIFYING
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (JANUARY 24-25) AS
THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.
AS IS TYPICAL WITH A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE...MODEL PROGS GO
HAYWIRE WITH VARIOUS PLACEMENT OF ENERGY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF PINCHES OFF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW AND ALLOWS ENERGY
TO SLIP UNDER IT INTO CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP NEXT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE SIERRA. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS PUNTS THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ENERGY DIVING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS 500 MB STANDARD DEVIATIONS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY ARE OVER 100 METERS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
INDICATING THE MASSIVE VARIATIONS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...I LEFT THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH THE 12Z GFS INDICATING
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WEDNESDAY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING 40S AND 50S
(BASED ON THE MODEL 850 MB TEMPS)! SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
FOR THE LATE NIGHT TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR THE
CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINKS (AROUND KLOL AND KNFL). KTRK HAS BEEN SCOURED
OF THE MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR FOG TONIGHT BUT IT COULD RETURN IN A
COUPLE DAYS.
WIND-WISE...PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KLKN 142221
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
221 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WITH RIDGE FURTHER EAST SINCE YESTERDAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ALLOWING SURFACE INVERSIONS ALONG WITH AREAS OF VALLEY MORNING
FOG. FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER THEN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SILVER STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEY ARE DISAGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS...SO HAVE PUT SOME
INDICATION OF THIS IN THE POPS...BUT MAY GO EITHER HIGHER OR LOWER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE IFR AND MAYBE SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT DEVELOP MORNING FREEZING FOG.
EXPECTING THESE AREAS BO BE FOUND IN MAINLY NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A
FEW AREAS ALSO IN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
87/97/97
000
FXUS65 KVEF 141748
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A SMALL WRINKLE. TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TODAY AND FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE
A LOW BY A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY. OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT WINDS
WILL STILL BE STRONGEST IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS. NO UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009...THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL YIELD
LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIXED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT
INFLUENCE SURFACE CONDITIONS MUCH...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE BY
FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT...ABOVE 700 MB...WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BUT
STILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...A REX BLOCK SETS UP THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE PAC
NW AND A PIECE OF ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER UTAH AND
RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARDS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNTIL THIS RIPPLE OF ENERGY GETS CLOSER TO US SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS WITH FORECASTED NUMBERS EVEN TAKING A RUN AT THE RECORD AT
BISHOP ON SATURDAY. LOCAL NORTH BREEZES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
TIGHT...THOUGH THE LACK OF ALIGNMENT OF MID-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING ABOVE BREEZY LEVELS. AS THIS
RIPPLE OF ENERGY FINALLY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IT
WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...THUS DROPPING
TEMPS A LITTLE FOR MONDAY. IN ADDITION IT WILL ALLOW SURFACE
GRADIENTS TO FINALLY WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND THUS
ALLOWING FOR THE INVERSION TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
ALSO SUPPORT A LITTLE COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS RIPPLE OF ENERGY WILL ALSO BRING US SOME CIRRUS.
LOOKING BEYOND...THIS PIECE OF ENERGY FINALLY GETS PUSHED EAST ON
TUESDAY AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES SHAPE
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIVES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE RIDGE EASTWARD. MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY GIVES WAY TO A SYSTEM WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING SIGNS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND THE GEM NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...GHOST POPS WERE INTRODUCED STARTING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER WAS TRENDED UP.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...A FEW SPURTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 6-12 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 02Z THU...LIGHT DIURNAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...IN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS...NORTH WINDS OF 6-12
KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXCEPT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANYTIME WINDS ARE BETWEEN 330
AND 010 DEGREES AT KVGT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. A CLEAR SKY IN ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THESE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
JACQUES/ADAIR/STACHELSKI
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 141622
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
822 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE VALLEY MORNING FOG IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY AS SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE INDICATE AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE OVER THIS AREA. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BY 11 AM. OTHERWISE
PLAN ON NO OTHER CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 218 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A REX BLOCK
STARTING TO SET UP ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. EXPECT TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTH STILL HAVING A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN CO WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN
INVERSION AND LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING QUITE AS
WARM AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO START
COOLING DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS AS DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...AND FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WITH LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AROUND KEKO...SOME LOW
CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN
12Z-17Z.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
87/99
000
FXUS65 KVEF 141106
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST WILL YIELD LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIXED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT INFLUENCE SURFACE CONDITIONS MUCH...
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE BY FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT...ABOVE
700 MB...WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY.
.LONG TERM...A REX BLOCK SETS UP THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE PAC
NW AND A PIECE OF ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER UTAH AND
RETROGRADES WESTWARD TOWARDS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNTIL THIS RIPPLE OF ENERGY GETS CLOSER TO US SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS WITH FORECASTED NUMBERS EVEN TAKING A RUN AT THE RECORD AT
BISHOP ON SATURDAY. LOCAL NORTH BREEZES WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
TIGHT...THOUGH THE LACK OF ALIGNMENT OF MID-LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING ABOVE BREEZY LEVELS. AS THIS
RIPPLE OF ENERGY FINALLY MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IT
WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...THUS DROPPING
TEMPS A LITTLE FOR MONDAY. IN ADDITION IT WILL ALLOW SURFACE
GRADIENTS TO FINALLY WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS AND THUS
ALLOWING FOR THE INVERSION TO LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
ALSO SUPPORT A LITTLE COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS RIPPLE OF ENERGY WILL ALSO BRING US SOME CIRRUS.
LOOKING BEYOND...THIS PIECE OF ENERGY FINALLY GETS PUSHED EAST ON
TUESDAY AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES SHAPE
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIVES SOUTH AND PUSHES THE RIDGE EASTWARD. MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY GIVES WAY TO A SYSTEM WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING SIGNS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND THE GEM NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY. FOR NOW...GHOST POPS WERE INTRODUCED STARTING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER WAS TRENDED UP.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...A FEW SPURTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 6-12 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 02Z THU...LIGHT DIURNAL SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. A CLEAR SKY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...IN NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS...NORTH WINDS OF 6-12
KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXCEPT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL WINDS UNDER 10
KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANYTIME WINDS ARE BETWEEN 330
AND 010 DEGREES AT KVGT...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. A CLEAR SKY IN ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THESE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
ADAIR/STACHELSKI
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 141057
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG RIDGE OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS
OF ERN CA WHERE SOME SITES MAY REACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY. SEE
LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /PNSREV/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST BY
FRIDAY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE EAST...THE
EXACT DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION AND
ORIENTATION OF RIDGE AXIS WITH RESPECT TO AREA OF RELATIVELY LOWER
500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS SRN CA. THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN MAY
BRING SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME INCREASE IN
CIRRUS WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE...OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS IN VALLEYS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA WITH HUMIDITY AT
MOST RIDGE SITES REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS
THRU FRIDAY. MJD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO NO
MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN BY
MONDAY...BUT THE OVERALL FEATURES OF RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BEYOND TUESDAY THE 20TH...NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE HORIZON
IN TERMS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. MODELS PUSH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHICH MAKES THE OVERALL PATTERN
MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE MODELS REDEVELOP THE RIDGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST AND 140W AND FORCE PACIFIC MOISTURE/ENERGY TO RIDE UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OR TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS...BUT BRING A WEAK SYSTEM DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG. PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLOL AND SHOULD DEVELOP AT KTRK EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 16-17Z. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KLKN 141018
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
218 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A REX BLOCK
STARTING TO SET UP ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. EXPECT TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NORTH STILL HAVING A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN ID INTO WESTERN CO WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN
INVERSION AND LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING QUITE AS
WARM AS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO START
COOLING DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS AS DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR MOVES IN.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THIS PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE FEW CLOUDS...LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS...AND FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES WITH LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AROUND KEKO...SOME LOW
CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN
12Z-17Z.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
86/99/99
000
FXUS65 KVEF 140449 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
849 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST. LOCAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
BE SEEN DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.UPDATE...LOWER 48 BEING DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND
DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY. MODELS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
FOR CONTINUED NORTH WINDS...GUSTY AT TIME DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM PST TUE JAN 13...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM AS STRONG RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST SLOWLY NUDGES INTO THE
PACNW BY 12Z THURSDAY. A VERY WEAK LOW THEN FORMS UNDER THE HIGH BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH LOW CENTER FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO NEAR 30N/130W.
OVERALL CHANGE DUE TO THIS WEAK LOW FORMATION IS THAT FLOW ALOFT TO
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND WEAKEN.
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED OVER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT FLOW ALOFT AND GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH/SOUTH FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AND THEN FORM ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS 850/700MB FLOW SHIFTS
TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE OWENS VALLEY BEING CLOSE TO RECORD READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
SKIES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS BEGIN TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TRANSITIONS
EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...SO CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS PREDOMINANTLY
BELOW 10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A PERSISTENT NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS FAVORING NORTH-SOUTH WINDS SUCH AS
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AT NIGHT...EXCEPT AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS DAY/NIGHT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
PIERCE/JENSEN/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 140449 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
849 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE WEST COAST. LOCAL GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
BE SEEN DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.UPDATE...LOWER 48 BEING DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND
DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY. MODELS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
FOR CONTINUED NORTH WINDS...GUSTY AT TIME DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. NO UPDATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM PST TUE JAN 13...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SHORT TERM AS STRONG RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST SLOWLY NUDGES INTO THE
PACNW BY 12Z THURSDAY. A VERY WEAK LOW THEN FORMS UNDER THE HIGH BY
12Z FRIDAY WITH LOW CENTER FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO NEAR 30N/130W.
OVERALL CHANGE DUE TO THIS WEAK LOW FORMATION IS THAT FLOW ALOFT TO
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND WEAKEN.
NORTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE WEAKENED OVER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT FLOW ALOFT AND GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH/SOUTH FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AND THEN FORM ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ON THURSDAY AS 850/700MB FLOW SHIFTS
TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE OWENS VALLEY BEING CLOSE TO RECORD READINGS ON
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR
SKIES. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS BEGIN TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE TRANSITIONS
EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...SO CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS PREDOMINANTLY
BELOW 10KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A PERSISTENT NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS FAVORING NORTH-SOUTH WINDS SUCH AS
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AT NIGHT...EXCEPT AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS DAY/NIGHT PATTERN WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE
AZ...NONE
CA...NONE
&&
$$
PIERCE/JENSEN/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
| 
