000
FXUS61 KALY 152140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
440 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BITTER COLD WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD...AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS...WE EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO PLUMMET DOWN TO 0 TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...-5 TO -10 WITHIN THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND -10 TO -25 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO POTENTIALLY LIMIT SUCH LOW
TEMPS WOULD BE IF ANY CLOUDS MIGRATE E FROM THE LAKES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THIS POSSIBILITY MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS NOT UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD STILL
LEAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE FREE FALL OF TEMPS...AND THEREFORE WE HAVE
GONE WELL BELOW THE COLDEST OF MOS.

SINCE WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...TO UNDER 5
MPH...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE WIND CHILL HEADLINES...SINCE THE WIND
CHILLS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR EQUAL TO THE AIR TEMPS. DESPITE THE LACK
OF HEADLINES...IT CAN NOT BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH THE SUCH LOW TEMPS OF
-10 TO -20F WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD...AND CAN STILL EASILY
LEAD TO FROSTBITE QUICKLY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM THE
REMAINING CLOUDS THAT PERSIST...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SW DACKS...SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRI...AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LATER IN THE
DAY...WE EXPECT ANY MORNING SUNSHINE TO QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RAPID
FORMATION OF CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE
FURTHER...DROPPING WIND CHILLS INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 9 AM EST...BUT IF THEY INCREASE SOONER...WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND INTO THE SW DACKS BY
LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR MAY ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT DRY ENTRAINMENT INTO ANY BANDS...AND THUS LIMIT HOW FAR
E THEY EXTEND. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS NW AREAS...ALONG WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACCUM. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY/WARNING LEVELS. FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN POTENTIALLY DEEP
MIXING...WE HAVE INDICATED TEMPS REACHING 10 TO 15 ABOVE ACROSS MANY
VALLEY REGIONS...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALLOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA TO HOLD IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...OR EVEN REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN.

FRI NT...AGAIN...BITTER COLD...AND IN FACT...COULD BE EVEN COLDER IN
SOME AREAS THAN THU NT/FRI AM...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND WIND.
FOR NOW...HAVE ONCE AGAIN INDICATED MINS WELL BELOW ALL MOS...WITH
ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE VALLEYS...AND TEN TO AT LEAST TWENTY
BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BECOME
LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...SO WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN ACTUAL TEMPS. SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW HAMILTON
COS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMS.

SAT-SAT NT...SUNNY TO START SAT...THEN HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT TEMP RISES...AND IN MANY AREAS...SAT MAY ACTUALLY BE
COLDER THAN FRI. SO...FOR MAXES...EXPECT ONLY 10-15 ACROSS MOST
VALLEY REGIONS...AND 0 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
SAT NT...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE. FOR
MINS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALBERTA CLIPPER APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH A REGION OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 280-285K SURFACE WITH 2-3 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
AVAILABLE.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE
FEATURES...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY ENHANCE QPF SOMEWHAT /ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES/.  INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SEEMS TO BE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED.  BY THE END OF THIS EVENT...ANTICIPATION IS FOR 3
TO 6 INCHES WITH PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND FOR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE HWO WITH EXPECTATIONS OF ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA BEING MET.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS CLIPPER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC ANNOYANCE
SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY.  THIS COULD ENHANCE
THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY AND INCREASE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BUILDING EASTWARD FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SUNSHINE.  AS THIS HIGH SLIDES EAST...WARM ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED AND WE MIGHT SEE TEMPS APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...INDICATIONS OF YET ANOTHER ARCTIC
BLAST AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-10KTS...SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL SLGT CHC FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB/KPOU NO
SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SAT NT-MON...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SN.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WOULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED FRAZIL/FREEZE UP RIVER ICE JAMS. THE ALBANY NWS CRITERIA
FOR POSSIBLE RIVER ICE FREEZE UP JAMS IS THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF ZERO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR LESS. THIS
COLD IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS NORTH ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHER ELEVATION BASINS IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS MAY
ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE A RANDOM RIVER FREEZE UP JAM.

COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING AS SNOW. RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN.
SOME RIVER STAGES AND FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LARGE FLUCTUATIONS
OR RISES DUE TO ICE EFFECTS.  THE SNOWPACK...WHICH COVERS OUR ENTIRE
HSA...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN WATER CONTENT.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...DIRIENZO/RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 152024
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR NEGATIVE 30 IN THE ISOLATED AREAS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO AROUND NEGATIVE 10 IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE
FORESEEN...BUT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS STILL
DEPICTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES
REGION...HEADED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE CWA OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DEEPEST COLD AIR WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND 850 TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE NEGATIVE UPPER 20S.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
THE NORTHERN NEW YORK ZONES. BUT...STILL FORECASTING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT TO BE A GOOD 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEFINITELY
NOT EXPECTING A SOLID CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...SNOWPACK...AND VERY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD STILL
PROVIDE THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL HAVE LOWS AROUND NEGATIVE 10 WITH LOWS IN
THE NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS DROP EVEN FURTHER IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EST THURSDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY COLD
DAY...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST. AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA THE DEEPEST COLDEST ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NY
CREATING SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER`S THINKING FOR 60 POPS IN
THIS AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. USED A VERY HIGH SNOW RATIO BECAUSE OF SUPER COLD TEMPS.
HAVE ALSO INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WITH BARELY ANY
ACCUMULATION...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RESULTING FROM
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION AND INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY GETTING CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT ONLY FOR A VERY SHORT TIME. CONTINUING TO MENTION
WIND CHILL WORDING IN ZONES...BUT DOES NOT WARRANT A WATCH AT
THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES CLOSER
TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. 850 TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...AND WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW WITH OVERNIGHT MINS. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THESE TEMPS AND WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
THIS IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND 850 TEMPS
RAISE INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS. WILL NOT BE A VAST OR SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP BECAUSE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR WILL BE HARD TO GET OUT OF
THE AREA. SO HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. THIS LOW
WILL END UP STALLING OUT OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...AS
BLOCKING RIDGE OFF THE COAST WILL WEAKEN SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
SOME WAA SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...THE MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE EXTENDED
WILL BE SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MAINE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO BRING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO VERMONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY. A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

AFTER MONDAY...A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK WILL BE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR
500 DAM WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS DURING THIS STRETCH WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH LOWS 5 ABOVE TO
5 BELOW ZERO. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SINK SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO THURSDAY...SPREADING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS. CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY
00Z. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SCATTERED
LOW DECK MOVING IN AS WELL. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ANY SNOW TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SLK AREA THROUGH 18Z.

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...VFR WITH MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR EXPECTED
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMSS.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS/NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...MB
CLIMATE...BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 151740
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1240 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION. THE FRIGID AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...CONTINUING OUR VERY COLD WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SPOTTER NETWORK...RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS QUICKLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST...WE WILL DROP THE ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HIGHEST TOTAL OF SNOW THUS FAR HAS BEEN 1 INCH
ACROSS NW CT AND WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED. THIS HAS
BEEN COLLABORATED WITH OKX AND BOX WFOS.
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SHORT ON ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS...4 INCHES.
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING VERY LIGHT SNOW. ALSO MODEL QPF
HAS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE TO GET
STARTED. THE 00Z/THU KALY SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITH KOKX EVEN DRIER. BUFKIT DOES INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE THIS MORNING. NOT GETTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW.
BASICALLY...THE SYSTEM FINALLY TAPS INTO SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
SO WILL DROP ADVISORIES FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD. WILL KEEP ADVISORY POSTED FOR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WFOS BOX AND OKX. SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECTED WIND CHILL
VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. IT WILL BE
COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. ALOFT...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE ARCTIC AIR GETS REINFORCED IN WAKE OF LOW
TONIGHT. 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -18C TO -24C BY 12Z/FRIDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID -20SC. TONIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT...BITTER. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING SO NO
WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED. LOWS FORECAST TO GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
FORECAST AREA WITH 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS NEAR HUDSON BAY AND DROPS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FAVORABLE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ALONG WITH THE FRIGID AIR SHOULD PROMOTE A SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. INLAND EXTENT OF BAND WILL BE
A VERY TOUGH FORECAST...AS AS DRY MID LEVELS AND DEEP MIXING COULD
LIMIT BANDS STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL GET DISRUPTED ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN A FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.  ARCTIC HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AT NIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED. DID GO BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A TOUGH TIME WITH AIRMASS THAT
GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN JUMP TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND LIFT OUT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ORIGINAL LOW DISSIPATES. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH
AS 6 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PICTURE BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES WITH WEST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH TEND
TO FAVOR FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE UPPER TROF. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH
MORE THAN CLOUDS AND SOME SPITS OF SNOW TO OUR REGION BEFORE
IT EXITS OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT LONG LAST...AS THE PESTY UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST MAKING WAY FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO APPROACH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES BEGIN A LONG SLOW RISE FROM MINUS 15 TUESDAY
MORNING TO MINUS 5 BY THURSDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED THE
USE OF GMOS TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD. MIDDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE ALBANY AREA GO FROM THE LOW TWENTIES ON
SUNDAY TO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY WHILE EARLY MORNING LOWS
RISE FROM THE HIGH SINGLES SUNDAY TO THE MID TEENS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT
5-10KTS...SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT/05Z. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL SLGT CHC FOR LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB/KPOU NO
SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SAT NT-MON...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SN.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151735
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1235 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND
NEW YORK...AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 20
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE
FORESEEN...BUT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1121 AM EST THURSDAY...HAVE DONE A QUICK ZONE UPDATE JUST
TO GET RID OF MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FRESHEN UP
SKY...T...AND TD GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING IS
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION...AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AS SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
RAPIDLY IN SOME AREAS...WITH TEMPS STARTING AROUND 20 BELOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AND PORTIONS OF NERN VT JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
AS SFC LOW OVER N-CENTRAL VA AT 08Z TRACKS ENEWD SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BECOMING LIGHT
NLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN COLDER AIR ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC TO FILTER SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...OFFSETTING INSOLATIONAL HEATING WITH CLEARING SKIES. ACROSS
NRN AREAS...1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO THE HIGH 480DMS
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -27C. LOCAL MOS NUMBERS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY POOR UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FAILING TO FULLY ACCOUNT
FOR THE NEAR- SFC ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT PROPAGATES SWD LIKE A
DENSITY CURRENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. THUS...THERE WILL BE NO SO-CALLED "MOS-
HUGGING" OR TAKING OF THE MOS CONSENSUS ON THIS FRIGID MID-
JANUARY DAY. WHEREAS 00Z MAV-MOS GIVES A HIGH OF 7F AT KBTV...AND
MET-MOS HAS 5F...WE/LL FORECAST A MAX OF ZERO AT BTV...AND
LIKEWISE ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD AROUND 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE NRN VLY LOCATIONS. THE LAST TIME THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KBTV WAS ZERO OR BELOW WAS NEARLY FOUR YEARS
AGO...21 JANUARY 2005...WHEN THE HIGH WAS -3F. WE PROBABLY WON/T
BE QUITE THAT LOW...BUT FORESEE BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCES TO
REMAIN AOB ZERO THIS AFTN AT KBTV. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT WIND CHILL
READINGS TODAY...AS WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH THE
LIGHT NLY DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH MID-LVL POLAR VORTEX POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AND SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TONIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. ONLY POTENTIAL "BRAKE" ON FALLING TEMPERATURES IS
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS APPARENT ON EARLY AM IR IMAGERY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR NWD
ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WHEN VIEWING 00Z NAM RH WITH
RESPECT TO ICE IN TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS...REGION OF 80-90
PERCENT RH BETWEEN 15-20 KFT SHIFTS ACROSS KBTV BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-09Z. THIS MAY HAVE SOME MITIGATING IMPACT ON HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES CAN GET...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE NIGHT...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME
QUITE COLD. WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...MODERATE SNOWPACK...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...HAVE GONE WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT. ACROSS
NRN NY...LOOKING AT GENERALLY 20 TO 25 BELOW...EXCEPT 25 TO 30
BELOW AT SARANAC LAKE/LAKE CLEAR AIRPORT. LIKEWISE...HAVE FORECAST
25 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

CONTINUED COLD ON FRIDAY WITH POLAR VORTEX ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS NRN NY TO ALLOW
LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND TO PIVOT NWD INTO SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND
PORTIONS OF SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY. HAVE INCLUDED 60 POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTION OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AIDED BY VERY LOW SNOW
DENSITY...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT. ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
AREA TO BE VERY LIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 MPH BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME WIND CHILL WORDING
IN THE ZONE FORECAST AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED ON FRIDAY IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD.

MORE PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED SFC RIDGE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 1000-500MB RH IS RELATIVELY HIGH /60-80
PERCENT/...SO PERHAPS NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
PROSPECT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE GONE WITH LOWS
AROUND -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 10 TO 20 BELOW ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT MID 20S BELOW ZERO FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A
CHANCE IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS. THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND REFINE FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

SFC RIDGE SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FINALLY BEGIN TO
MODERATE...UP TO 504-507 DM DURING THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS SHILL
EXPECTED AROUND -22C AT 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS NRN CWA. WILL NOT BE TOO
HASTY TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR SO FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. VALLEY HIGHS ANTICIPATED IN THE MID TO UPR SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
SATURDAY NGT WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING WK LOW
EXPECTED TO MV ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY STALL OVER EASTERN GREAT LKS.
W/ STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE...SFC SYSTEM DOES BEGIN TO FALL APART AS
IT WORKS EAST INTO THE NEW ENG REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SOME WAA/QPF TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MV EAST THRU THE NORTH COUNTRY
STARTING LATE SAT NGT...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP OPS FOR SUNDAY TO
LIKELY AS MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR REGION SEEING SOME LGT -SW.
-SW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH E OUT OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING AS SFC
RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER AREA BEHIND SFC
LOW...SO WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR SOME --SW...BUT WILL BE LIMITED
DO TO SFC RIDGE DRYING AREA OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. WEAK RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WORKING SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MVMNT IS HAMPERED BY
BLOCKING RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS EVENT...SO WILL
NOT KEEP POPS HIGH FOR AREA. EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY NEAR MDL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS. CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BY
00Z. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SCATTERED
LOW DECK MOVING IN AS WELL. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ANY SNOW TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SLK AREA THROUGH 18Z.

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...VFR WITH MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR EXPECTED
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT KSLK AND KMSS.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...MB
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151623
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1123 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND
NEW YORK...AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 20
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE
FORESEEN...BUT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1121 AM EST THURSDAY...HAVE DONE A QUICK ZONE UPDATE JUST
TO GET RID OF MORNING WORDING IN THE ZONES AND FRESHEN UP
SKY...T...AND TD GRIDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING IS
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION...AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AS SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
RAPIDLY IN SOME AREAS...WITH TEMPS STARTING AROUND 20 BELOW
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AND PORTIONS OF NERN VT JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
AS SFC LOW OVER N-CENTRAL VA AT 08Z TRACKS ENEWD SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BECOMING LIGHT
NLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN COLDER AIR ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC TO FILTER SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS...OFFSETTING INSOLATIONAL HEATING WITH CLEARING SKIES. ACROSS
NRN AREAS...1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO THE HIGH 480DMS
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -27C. LOCAL MOS NUMBERS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY POOR UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FAILING TO FULLY ACCOUNT
FOR THE NEAR- SFC ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT PROPAGATES SWD LIKE A
DENSITY CURRENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. THUS...THERE WILL BE NO SO-CALLED "MOS-
HUGGING" OR TAKING OF THE MOS CONSENSUS ON THIS FRIGID MID-
JANUARY DAY. WHEREAS 00Z MAV-MOS GIVES A HIGH OF 7F AT KBTV...AND
MET-MOS HAS 5F...WE/LL FORECAST A MAX OF ZERO AT BTV...AND
LIKEWISE ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD AROUND 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE NRN VLY LOCATIONS. THE LAST TIME THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KBTV WAS ZERO OR BELOW WAS NEARLY FOUR YEARS
AGO...21 JANUARY 2005...WHEN THE HIGH WAS -3F. WE PROBABLY WON/T
BE QUITE THAT LOW...BUT FORESEE BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCES TO
REMAIN AOB ZERO THIS AFTN AT KBTV. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT WIND CHILL
READINGS TODAY...AS WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH THE
LIGHT NLY DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH MID-LVL POLAR VORTEX POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AND SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TONIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. ONLY POTENTIAL "BRAKE" ON FALLING TEMPERATURES IS
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS APPARENT ON EARLY AM IR IMAGERY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR NWD
ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WHEN VIEWING 00Z NAM RH WITH
RESPECT TO ICE IN TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS...REGION OF 80-90
PERCENT RH BETWEEN 15-20 KFT SHIFTS ACROSS KBTV BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-09Z. THIS MAY HAVE SOME MITIGATING IMPACT ON HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES CAN GET...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE NIGHT...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME
QUITE COLD. WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...MODERATE SNOWPACK...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...HAVE GONE WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT. ACROSS
NRN NY...LOOKING AT GENERALLY 20 TO 25 BELOW...EXCEPT 25 TO 30
BELOW AT SARANAC LAKE/LAKE CLEAR AIRPORT. LIKEWISE...HAVE FORECAST
25 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

CONTINUED COLD ON FRIDAY WITH POLAR VORTEX ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS NRN NY TO ALLOW
LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND TO PIVOT NWD INTO SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND
PORTIONS OF SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY. HAVE INCLUDED 60 POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTION OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AIDED BY VERY LOW SNOW
DENSITY...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT. ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
AREA TO BE VERY LIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 MPH BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME WIND CHILL WORDING
IN THE ZONE FORECAST AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED ON FRIDAY IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD.

MORE PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED SFC RIDGE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 1000-500MB RH IS RELATIVELY HIGH /60-80
PERCENT/...SO PERHAPS NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
PROSPECT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE GONE WITH LOWS
AROUND -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 10 TO 20 BELOW ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT MID 20S BELOW ZERO FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A
CHANCE IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS. THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND REFINE FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

SFC RIDGE SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FINALLY BEGIN TO
MODERATE...UP TO 504-507 DM DURING THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS SHILL
EXPECTED AROUND -22C AT 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS NRN CWA. WILL NOT BE TOO
HASTY TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR SO FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. VALLEY HIGHS ANTICIPATED IN THE MID TO UPR SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
SATURDAY NGT WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING WK LOW
EXPECTED TO MV ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY STALL OVER EASTERN GREAT LKS.
W/ STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE...SFC SYSTEM DOES BEGIN TO FALL APART AS
IT WORKS EAST INTO THE NEW ENG REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SOME WAA/QPF TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MV EAST THRU THE NORTH COUNTRY
STARTING LATE SAT NGT...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP OPS FOR SUNDAY TO
LIKELY AS MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR REGION SEEING SOME LGT -SW.
-SW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH E OUT OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING AS SFC
RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER AREA BEHIND SFC
LOW...SO WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR SOME --SW...BUT WILL BE LIMITED
DO TO SFC RIDGE DRYING AREA OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. WEAK RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WORKING SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MVMNT IS HAMPERED BY
BLOCKING RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS EVENT...SO WILL
NOT KEEP POPS HIGH FOR AREA. EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY NEAR MDL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST SITES
W/ FEW-SCT100-150 FOR MOST OF PERIOD...OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS WNW
LESS THAN 10KTS FOR AFTNOON HRS...OTHERWISE LGT/VAR THRU 15Z TODAY
AND AFT 22Z-23Z.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 151308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
808 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION. THE FRIGID AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...CONTINUING OUR VERY COLD WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SPOTTER NETWORK...RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS QUICKLY
DEPARTING TO THE EAST...WE WILL DROP THE ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HIGHEST TOTAL OF SNOW THUS FAR HAS BEEN 1 INCH
ACROSS NW CT AND WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW EXPECTED. THIS HAS
BEEN COLLABORATED WITH OKX AND BOX WFOS.
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SHORT ON ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS...4 INCHES.
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING VERY LIGHT SNOW. ALSO MODEL QPF
HAS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE TO GET
STARTED. THE 00Z/THU KALY SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITH KOKX EVEN DRIER. BUFKIT DOES INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE THIS MORNING. NOT GETTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW.
BASICALLY...THE SYSTEM FINALLY TAPS INTO SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
SO WILL DROP ADVISORIES FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD. WILL KEEP ADVISORY POSTED FOR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WFOS BOX AND OKX. SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECTED WIND CHILL
VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. IT WILL BE
COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. ALOFT...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE ARCTIC AIR GETS REINFORCED IN WAKE OF LOW
TONIGHT. 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -18C TO -24C BY 12Z/FRIDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID -20SC. TONIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT...BITTER. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING SO NO
WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED. LOWS FORECAST TO GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
FORECAST AREA WITH 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS NEAR HUDSON BAY AND DROPS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FAVORABLE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ALONG WITH THE FRIGID AIR SHOULD PROMOTE A SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. INLAND EXTENT OF BAND WILL BE
A VERY TOUGH FORECAST...AS AS DRY MID LEVELS AND DEEP MIXING COULD
LIMIT BANDS STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL GET DISRUPTED ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN A FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.  ARCTIC HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AT NIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED. DID GO BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A TOUGH TIME WITH AIRMASS THAT
GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN JUMP TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND LIFT OUT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ORIGINAL LOW DISSIPATES. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH
AS 6 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PICTURE BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES WITH WEST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH TEND
TO FAVOR FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE UPPER TROF. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH
MORE THAN CLOUDS AND SOME SPITS OF SNOW TO OUR REGION BEFORE
IT EXITS OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT LONG LAST...AS THE PESTY UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST MAKING WAY FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO APPROACH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES BEGIN A LONG SLOW RISE FROM MINUS 15 TUESDAY
MORNING TO MINUS 5 BY THURSDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED THE
USE OF GMOS TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD. MIDDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE ALBANY AREA GO FROM THE LOW TWENTIES ON
SUNDAY TO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY WHILE EARLY MORNING LOWS
RISE FROM THE HIGH SINGLES SUNDAY TO THE MID TEENS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARIED FROM IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
INCLUDING KALB...KGFL...AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR.
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKSHIRES...AND
AREAS SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW AND CEILINGS BELOW VFR MINS MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER SOUTH...MVFR WITH PERIODS
OF IFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
REGION OF NEW YORK INCLUDING KPOU...THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...
AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB BY LATE
MORNING AND FARTHER SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTH BACKING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6 AND
15 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...
AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB AND KPOU NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN NT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 151150
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION. THE FRIGID AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...CONTINUING OUR VERY COLD WEATHER.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SHORT ON ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS...4 INCHES.
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING VERY LIGHT SNOW. ALSO MODEL QPF
HAS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE TO GET
STARTED. THE 00Z/THU KALY SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITH KOKX EVEN DRIER. BUFKIT DOES INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE THIS MORNING. NOT GETTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW.
BASICALLY...THE SYSTEM FINALLY TAPS INTO SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
SO WILL DROP ADVISORIES FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD. WILL KEEP ADVISORY POSTED FOR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WFOS BOX AND OKX. SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECTED WIND CHILL
VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. IT WILL BE
COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. ALOFT...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE ARCTIC AIR GETS REINFORCED IN WAKE OF LOW
TONIGHT. 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -18C TO -24C BY 12Z/FRIDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID -20SC. TONIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT...BITTER. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING SO NO
WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED. LOWS FORECAST TO GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
FORECAST AREA WITH 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS NEAR HUDSON BAY AND DROPS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FAVORABLE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ALONG WITH THE FRIGID AIR SHOULD PROMOTE A SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. INLAND EXTENT OF BAND WILL BE
A VERY TOUGH FORECAST...AS AS DRY MID LEVELS AND DEEP MIXING COULD
LIMIT BANDS STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL GET DISRUPTED ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN A FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.  ARCTIC HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AT NIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED. DID GO BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A TOUGH TIME WITH AIRMASS THAT
GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN JUMP TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND LIFT OUT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ORIGINAL LOW DISSIPATES. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH
AS 6 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PICTURE BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES WITH WEST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH TEND
TO FAVOR FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE UPPER TROF. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH
MORE THAN CLOUDS AND SOME SPITS OF SNOW TO OUR REGION BEFORE
IT EXITS OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT LONG LAST...AS THE PESTY UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST MAKING WAY FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO APPROACH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES BEGIN A LONG SLOW RISE FROM MINUS 15 TUESDAY
MORNING TO MINUS 5 BY THURSDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED THE
USE OF GMOS TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD. MIDDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE ALBANY AREA GO FROM THE LOW TWENTIES ON
SUNDAY TO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY WHILE EARLY MORNING LOWS
RISE FROM THE HIGH SINGLES SUNDAY TO THE MID TEENS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARIED FROM IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS
INCLUDING KALB...KGFL...AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR.
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...BERKSHIRES...AND
AREAS SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW AND CEILINGS BELOW VFR MINS MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER SOUTH...MVFR WITH PERIODS
OF IFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
REGION OF NEW YORK INCLUDING KPOU...THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS...
AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB BY LATE
MORNING AND FARTHER SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTH BACKING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO BETWEEN 6 AND
15 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...
AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB AND KPOU NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN NT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW
YORK...AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE
FORESEEN...BUT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING IS BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AS SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
RAPIDLY IN SOME AREAS...WITH TEMPS STARTING AROUND 20 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN NY AND PORTIONS OF NERN VT JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC
LOW OVER N-CENTRAL VA AT 08Z TRACKS ENEWD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING...WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BECOMING LIGHT NLY AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN COLDER AIR ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TO FILTER
SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...OFFSETTING
INSOLATIONAL HEATING WITH CLEARING SKIES. ACROSS NRN
AREAS...1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO THE HIGH 480DMS WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -27C. LOCAL MOS NUMBERS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
POOR UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FAILING TO FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE NEAR-
SFC ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT PROPAGATES SWD LIKE A DENSITY
CURRENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. THUS...THERE WILL BE NO SO-CALLED "MOS-HUGGING" OR
TAKING OF THE MOS CONSENSUS ON THIS FRIGID MID-JANUARY DAY. WHEREAS
00Z MAV-MOS GIVES A HIGH OF 7F AT KBTV...AND MET-MOS HAS
5F...WE/LL FORECAST A MAX OF ZERO AT BTV...AND LIKEWISE ADJUST MAX
TEMPS DOWNWARD AROUND 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...SLIGHTLY MORE IN
THE NRN VLY LOCATIONS. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KBTV
WAS ZERO OR BELOW WAS NEARLY FOUR YEARS AGO...21 JANUARY
2005...WHEN THE HIGH WAS -3F. WE PROBABLY WON/T BE QUITE THAT
LOW...BUT FORESEE BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCES TO REMAIN AOB ZERO THIS
AFTN AT KBTV. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT WIND CHILL READINGS TODAY...AS
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH THE LIGHT NLY DRAINAGE
FLOW INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH MID-LVL POLAR VORTEX POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AND SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TONIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. ONLY POTENTIAL "BRAKE" ON FALLING TEMPERATURES IS
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS APPARENT ON EARLY AM IR IMAGERY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR NWD
ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WHEN VIEWING 00Z NAM RH WITH
RESPECT TO ICE IN TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS...REGION OF 80-90
PERCENT RH BETWEEN 15-20 KFT SHIFTS ACROSS KBTV BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-09Z. THIS MAY HAVE SOME MITIGATING IMPACT ON HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES CAN GET...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE NIGHT...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME
QUITE COLD. WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...MODERATE SNOWPACK...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...HAVE GONE WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT. ACROSS
NRN NY...LOOKING AT GENERALLY 20 TO 25 BELOW...EXCEPT 25 TO 30
BELOW AT SARANAC LAKE/LAKE CLEAR AIRPORT. LIKEWISE...HAVE FORECAST
25 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

CONTINUED COLD ON FRIDAY WITH POLAR VORTEX ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS NRN NY TO ALLOW
LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND TO PIVOT NWD INTO SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND
PORTIONS OF SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY. HAVE INCLUDED 60 POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTION OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AIDED BY VERY LOW SNOW
DENSITY...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT. ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
AREA TO BE VERY LIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 MPH BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME WIND CHILL WORDING
IN THE ZONE FORECAST AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED ON FRIDAY IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD.

MORE PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED SFC RIDGE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 1000-500MB RH IS RELATIVELY HIGH /60-80
PERCENT/...SO PERHAPS NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
PROSPECT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE GONE WITH LOWS
AROUND -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 10 TO 20 BELOW ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT MID 20S BELOW ZERO FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A
CHANCE IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS. THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND REFINE FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

SFC RIDGE SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FINALLY BEGIN TO
MODERATE...UP TO 504-507 DM DURING THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS SHILL
EXPECTED AROUND -22C AT 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS NRN CWA. WILL NOT BE TOO
HASTY TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR SO FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. VALLEY HIGHS ANTICIPATED IN THE MID TO UPR SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
SATURDAY NGT WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING WK LOW
EXPECTED TO MV ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY STALL OVER EASTERN GREAT LKS.
W/ STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE...SFC SYSTEM DOES BEGIN TO FALL APART AS
IT WORKS EAST INTO THE NEW ENG REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SOME WAA/QPF TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MV EAST THRU THE NORTH COUNTRY
STARTING LATE SAT NGT...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP OPS FOR SUNDAY TO
LIKELY AS MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR REGION SEEING SOME LGT -SW.
-SW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH E OUT OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING AS SFC
RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER AREA BEHIND SFC
LOW...SO WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR SOME --SW...BUT WILL BE LIMITED
DO TO SFC RIDGE DRYING AREA OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. WEAK RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WORKING SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MVMNT IS HAMPERED BY
BLOCKING RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS EVENT...SO WILL
NOT KEEP POPS HIGH FOR AREA. EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY NEAR MDL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST SITES
W/ FEW-SCT100-150 FOR MOST OF PERIOD...OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS WNW
LESS THAN 10KTS FOR AFTNOON HRS...OTHERWISE LGT/VAR THRU 15Z TODAY
AND AFT 22Z-23Z.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 151127
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW
YORK...AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE
FORESEEN...BUT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING IS BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AS SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
RAPIDLY IN SOME AREAS...WITH TEMPS STARTING AROUND 20 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN NY AND PORTIONS OF NERN VT JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC
LOW OVER N-CENTRAL VA AT 08Z TRACKS ENEWD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING...WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BECOMING LIGHT NLY AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN COLDER AIR ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TO FILTER
SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...OFFSETTING
INSOLATIONAL HEATING WITH CLEARING SKIES. ACROSS NRN
AREAS...1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO THE HIGH 480DMS WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -27C. LOCAL MOS NUMBERS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
POOR UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FAILING TO FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE NEAR-
SFC ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT PROPAGATES SWD LIKE A DENSITY
CURRENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. THUS...THERE WILL BE NO SO-CALLED "MOS-HUGGING" OR
TAKING OF THE MOS CONSENSUS ON THIS FRIGID MID-JANUARY DAY. WHEREAS
00Z MAV-MOS GIVES A HIGH OF 7F AT KBTV...AND MET-MOS HAS
5F...WE/LL FORECAST A MAX OF ZERO AT BTV...AND LIKEWISE ADJUST MAX
TEMPS DOWNWARD AROUND 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...SLIGHTLY MORE IN
THE NRN VLY LOCATIONS. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KBTV
WAS ZERO OR BELOW WAS NEARLY FOUR YEARS AGO...21 JANUARY
2005...WHEN THE HIGH WAS -3F. WE PROBABLY WON/T BE QUITE THAT
LOW...BUT FORESEE BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCES TO REMAIN AOB ZERO THIS
AFTN AT KBTV. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT WIND CHILL READINGS TODAY...AS
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH THE LIGHT NLY DRAINAGE
FLOW INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH MID-LVL POLAR VORTEX POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AND SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TONIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. ONLY POTENTIAL "BRAKE" ON FALLING TEMPERATURES IS
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS APPARENT ON EARLY AM IR IMAGERY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR NWD
ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WHEN VIEWING 00Z NAM RH WITH
RESPECT TO ICE IN TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS...REGION OF 80-90
PERCENT RH BETWEEN 15-20 KFT SHIFTS ACROSS KBTV BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-09Z. THIS MAY HAVE SOME MITIGATING IMPACT ON HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES CAN GET...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE NIGHT...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME
QUITE COLD. WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...MODERATE SNOWPACK...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...HAVE GONE WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT. ACROSS
NRN NY...LOOKING AT GENERALLY 20 TO 25 BELOW...EXCEPT 25 TO 30
BELOW AT SARANAC LAKE/LAKE CLEAR AIRPORT. LIKEWISE...HAVE FORECAST
25 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

CONTINUED COLD ON FRIDAY WITH POLAR VORTEX ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS NRN NY TO ALLOW
LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND TO PIVOT NWD INTO SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND
PORTIONS OF SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY. HAVE INCLUDED 60 POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTION OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AIDED BY VERY LOW SNOW
DENSITY...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT. ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
AREA TO BE VERY LIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 MPH BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME WIND CHILL WORDING
IN THE ZONE FORECAST AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED ON FRIDAY IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD.

MORE PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED SFC RIDGE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 1000-500MB RH IS RELATIVELY HIGH /60-80
PERCENT/...SO PERHAPS NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
PROSPECT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE GONE WITH LOWS
AROUND -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 10 TO 20 BELOW ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT MID 20S BELOW ZERO FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A
CHANCE IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS. THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND REFINE FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

SFC RIDGE SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FINALLY BEGIN TO
MODERATE...UP TO 504-507 DM DURING THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS SHILL
EXPECTED AROUND -22C AT 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS NRN CWA. WILL NOT BE TOO
HASTY TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR SO FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. VALLEY HIGHS ANTICIPATED IN THE MID TO UPR SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
SATURDAY NGT WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING WK LOW
EXPECTED TO MV ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY STALL OVER EASTERN GREAT LKS.
W/ STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE...SFC SYSTEM DOES BEGIN TO FALL APART AS
IT WORKS EAST INTO THE NEW ENG REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SOME WAA/QPF TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MV EAST THRU THE NORTH COUNTRY
STARTING LATE SAT NGT...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP OPS FOR SUNDAY TO
LIKELY AS MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR REGION SEEING SOME LGT -SW.
-SW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH E OUT OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING AS SFC
RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER AREA BEHIND SFC
LOW...SO WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR SOME --SW...BUT WILL BE LIMITED
DO TO SFC RIDGE DRYING AREA OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. WEAK RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WORKING SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MVMNT IS HAMPERED BY
BLOCKING RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS EVENT...SO WILL
NOT KEEP POPS HIGH FOR AREA. EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY NEAR MDL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST SITES
W/ FEW-SCT100-150 FOR MOST OF PERIOD...OTHERWISE SKC. WINDS WNW
LESS THAN 10KTS FOR AFTNOON HRS...OTHERWISE LGT/VAR THRU 15Z TODAY
AND AFT 22Z-23Z.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 150944
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
444 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE
REGION. THE FRIGID AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...CONTINUING OUR VERY COLD WEATHER.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SHORT ON ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS...4 INCHES.
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING VERY LIGHT SNOW. ALSO MODEL QPF
HAS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE TO GET
STARTED. THE 00Z/THU KALY SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITH KOKX EVEN DRIER. BUFKIT DOES INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL BE THIS MORNING. NOT GETTING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW.
BASICALLY...THE SYSTEM FINALLY TAPS INTO SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
SO WILL DROP ADVISORIES FOR ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD. WILL KEEP ADVISORY POSTED FOR SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD AFTER
COORDINATION WITH WFOS BOX AND OKX. SNOW WILL END THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER EXPECTED WIND CHILL
VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. IT WILL BE
COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. ALOFT...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A
LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE ARCTIC AIR GETS REINFORCED IN WAKE OF LOW
TONIGHT. 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -18C TO -24C BY 12Z/FRIDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID -20SC. TONIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT...BITTER. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING SO NO
WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED. LOWS FORECAST TO GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
FORECAST AREA WITH 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS NEAR HUDSON BAY AND DROPS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FAVORABLE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ALONG WITH THE FRIGID AIR SHOULD PROMOTE A SINGLE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND WITH MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OF
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. INLAND EXTENT OF BAND WILL BE
A VERY TOUGH FORECAST...AS AS DRY MID LEVELS AND DEEP MIXING COULD
LIMIT BANDS STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THE LAKE EFFECT WILL GET DISRUPTED ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN A FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.  ARCTIC HIGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS REGION SATURDAY AND SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AGAIN WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AT NIGHT 5 MPH OR LESS
SO WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED. DID GO BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A TOUGH TIME WITH AIRMASS THAT
GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN JUMP TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND LIFT OUT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE
ORIGINAL LOW DISSIPATES. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A RATHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS AS MUCH
AS 6 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT
AND THE BERKSHIRES IN MASSACHUSETTS. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE GENERAL WEATHER
PICTURE BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES WITH WEST NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH TEND
TO FAVOR FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
THE UPPER TROF. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH
MORE THAN CLOUDS AND SOME SPITS OF SNOW TO OUR REGION BEFORE
IT EXITS OUT TO SEA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT LONG LAST...AS THE PESTY UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST MAKING WAY FOR THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY TO APPROACH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES BEGIN A LONG SLOW RISE FROM MINUS 15 TUESDAY
MORNING TO MINUS 5 BY THURSDAY MORNING.  HAVE CONTINUED THE
USE OF GMOS TO INITIALIZE THE GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD. MIDDAY
TEMPERATURES IN THE ALBANY AREA GO FROM THE LOW TWENTIES ON
SUNDAY TO THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY WHILE EARLY MORNING LOWS
RISE FROM THE HIGH SINGLES SUNDAY TO THE MID TEENS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE STILL VFR ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE REGION A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SNOW
CAUSING IFR VISIBILITY AT KPOU AND KMGJ. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE MORNING OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS
MORNING AT KALB AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND THEN BECOME NORTH
WESTERLY AND PICK UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...
AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB AND KPOU NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN NT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR BELOW ZERO TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT AND NEW
YORK...AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE
FORESEEN...BUT A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING IS BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY ACCUMULATION...AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE AS SYSTEM SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
DECREASING CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
RAPIDLY IN SOME AREAS...WITH TEMPS STARTING AROUND 20 BELOW ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN NY AND PORTIONS OF NERN VT JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC
LOW OVER N-CENTRAL VA AT 08Z TRACKS ENEWD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING...WINDS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BECOMING LIGHT NLY AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN COLDER AIR ACROSS SRN QUEBEC TO FILTER
SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...OFFSETTING
INSOLATIONAL HEATING WITH CLEARING SKIES. ACROSS NRN
AREAS...1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP TO THE HIGH 480DMS WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -27C. LOCAL MOS NUMBERS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
POOR UNDER THIS SCENARIO...FAILING TO FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE NEAR-
SFC ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT PROPAGATES SWD LIKE A DENSITY
CURRENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. THUS...THERE WILL BE NO SO-CALLED "MOS-HUGGING" OR
TAKING OF THE MOS CONSENSUS ON THIS FRIGID MID-JANUARY DAY. WHEREAS
00Z MAV-MOS GIVES A HIGH OF 7F AT KBTV...AND MET-MOS HAS
5F...WE/LL FORECAST A MAX OF ZERO AT BTV...AND LIKEWISE ADJUST MAX
TEMPS DOWNWARD AROUND 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...SLIGHTLY MORE IN
THE NRN VLY LOCATIONS. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KBTV
WAS ZERO OR BELOW WAS NEARLY FOUR YEARS AGO...21 JANUARY
2005...WHEN THE HIGH WAS -3F. WE PROBABLY WON/T BE QUITE THAT
LOW...BUT FORESEE BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCES TO REMAIN AOB ZERO THIS
AFTN AT KBTV. WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT WIND CHILL READINGS TODAY...AS
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH THE LIGHT NLY DRAINAGE
FLOW INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EST THURSDAY...WITH MID-LVL POLAR VORTEX POSITIONED
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC AND SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TONIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. ONLY POTENTIAL "BRAKE" ON FALLING TEMPERATURES IS
THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPR LEVEL
CLOUDS APPARENT ON EARLY AM IR IMAGERY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR NWD
ACROSS NWRN ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WHEN VIEWING 00Z NAM RH WITH
RESPECT TO ICE IN TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS...REGION OF 80-90
PERCENT RH BETWEEN 15-20 KFT SHIFTS ACROSS KBTV BETWEEN ROUGHLY
03-09Z. THIS MAY HAVE SOME MITIGATING IMPACT ON HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES CAN GET...BUT WITHOUT A SOLID CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE NIGHT...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME
QUITE COLD. WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...MODERATE SNOWPACK...AND
NEARLY CALM WINDS...HAVE GONE WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND MOST OF CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VT. ACROSS
NRN NY...LOOKING AT GENERALLY 20 TO 25 BELOW...EXCEPT 25 TO 30
BELOW AT SARANAC LAKE/LAKE CLEAR AIRPORT. LIKEWISE...HAVE FORECAST
25 TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

CONTINUED COLD ON FRIDAY WITH POLAR VORTEX ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS NRN NY TO ALLOW
LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND TO PIVOT NWD INTO SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND
PORTIONS OF SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY NY. HAVE INCLUDED 60 POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTION OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AIDED BY VERY LOW SNOW
DENSITY...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT. ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
AREA TO BE VERY LIGHT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 MPH BY THE
LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SOME WIND CHILL WORDING
IN THE ZONE FORECAST AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED ON FRIDAY IF CURRENT INDICATIONS HOLD.

MORE PRONOUNCED N-S ORIENTED SFC RIDGE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 1000-500MB RH IS RELATIVELY HIGH /60-80
PERCENT/...SO PERHAPS NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE
PROSPECT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN. HAVE GONE WITH LOWS
AROUND -10F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 10 TO 20 BELOW ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT MID 20S BELOW ZERO FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A
CHANCE IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER DEPENDING ON TIMING AND AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS. THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME RANGE...BUT WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND REFINE FRIDAY NIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.

SFC RIDGE SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FINALLY BEGIN TO
MODERATE...UP TO 504-507 DM DURING THE AFTN. 850MB TEMPS SHILL
EXPECTED AROUND -22C AT 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS NRN CWA. WILL NOT BE TOO
HASTY TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR SO FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. VALLEY HIGHS ANTICIPATED IN THE MID TO UPR SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 341 AM EST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FOR
SATURDAY NGT WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING WK LOW
EXPECTED TO MV ACROSS AND EVENTUALLY STALL OVER EASTERN GREAT LKS.
W/ STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE...SFC SYSTEM DOES BEGIN TO FALL APART AS
IT WORKS EAST INTO THE NEW ENG REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SOME WAA/QPF TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MV EAST THRU THE NORTH COUNTRY
STARTING LATE SAT NGT...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED UP OPS FOR SUNDAY TO
LIKELY AS MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR REGION SEEING SOME LGT -SW.
-SW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH E OUT OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING AS SFC
RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER AREA BEHIND SFC
LOW...SO WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR SOME --SW...BUT WILL BE LIMITED
DO TO SFC RIDGE DRYING AREA OUT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. WEAK RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WORKING SLOWLY SE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MVMNT IS HAMPERED BY
BLOCKING RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THIS EVENT...SO WILL
NOT KEEP POPS HIGH FOR AREA. EXPECTING TEMPS TO STAY NEAR MDL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST SITES
W/ CEILINGS BKN MID/HIGH CLDS. THEY WILL VARY SOMEWHAT FROM S TO N
THRU 15Z TODAY DO TO PROXIMITY OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO
OUR SOUTH. SOME BKN035 AT RUT POSSBLE FOR A FEW HRS W/ SOME SCT
FLURRIES THRU 15Z...OTHER ALL SITES SCT OUT BY MIDDAY WITH ONLY
MID/HIGH CLDS THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS NNW 5-10KTS WILL
BECM LGT/VAR 00Z FRI.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...BANACOS/CL

000
FXUS61 KALY 150555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA
TO THE JERSEY COAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS FORECAST TO BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY
SOUTH. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CONTINUING OUR VERY COLD BUT DRY PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL INTENSIFY TO THE N AND NE OF THIS LOW...ALLOWING
LIGHT SNOW TO EXPAND NE INTO OUR REGION. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY
INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW FLURRIES
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING PORTIONS OF
THE HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION. THEN...AFTER MIDNIGHT...
GREATER 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TRANSLATE ENE
ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING A STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE GREATEST FORCING WILL OCCUR ACROSS
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS...WHICH SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA...RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1. THUS...WE HAVE PLACED
ADVISORIES FOR THIS SOUTHERN REGION...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 3-6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST FURTHER S. CLOSER TO THE
CAPITAL REGION...1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY
INTO THE BERKS...WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
GENERALLY RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH. FOR AREAS TO THE N...WE EXPECT
ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OT FALL...WITH A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE.

FOR MINS...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WE DO NOT
EXPECT MINS TO FALL MUCH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME WET BULBING ONCE SNOW
BEGINS...WE STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE
RANGE ACROSS MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH KGFL POSSIBLY FALLING TO
BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN BELOW ZERO...AND MANY ADIRONDACK AREAS FALLING
TO -10 TO -15. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT...LESS THAN 5
MPH LATER TONIGHT...THUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL
TEMPS...AND NO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THU...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ACCUMS.
THEN...SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES COULD
LINGER...ESP CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. AS FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO COLDER MAV MOS...WITH HIGHS REACHING
AROUND 10-15 ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY RISE
A FEW DEGREES...TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20 ACROSS THE DACKS
AND NORTH COUNTRY...AND -5 TO -15 CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

THU NT...CLEAR AND POTENTIALLY VERY COLD...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
WINDS DIMINISH. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
READINGS...WITH -10 TO -15 ACROSS MANY VALLEY REGIONS NEAR THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND -15 TO -25 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ZERO TO -5 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME LINGERING WIND COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THIS
PERIOD...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS/DACKS/SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.

FRI-FRI NT...UPPER LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...LEADING TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HOWEVER...ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AND WESTERN
HAMILTON COS...A FAVORABLE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...COMBINING WITH THE COLD MID LEVELS MAY PROMOTE A SINGLE
BAND LE SNOW EVENT...WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS HOW FAR E SUCH A BAND MAY EXTEND...AS DRY MID LEVELS AND
DEEP MIXING COULD LIMIT BAND STRENGTH ACROSS THE DACKS. THUS...FOR
NOW...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY WATCHES...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS REGION FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAXES TO AGAIN REMAIN VERY COLD...GENERALLY 5-10 ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...AND -5 TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS
FRI NT/SAT AM FALLING CLOSE TO...OR JUST A SHADE ABOVE THOSE ON FRI
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. 850 HPA TEMPS OF -18
TO -22 C WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. ALONG WITH A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE /AROUND 1035 HPA/...SATURDAY WILL BE A
DRY DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DACKS/UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH...THIS SHOULD BE SQUELCHED BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
ALSO...THE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WIND...SO THE WIND CHILL WON/T BE TOO MUCH
LOWER THAN THE SFC TEMPS /MAXES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS./

THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER LOW. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN OPEN 500 HPA WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON SUN.
THE SURFACE FEATURE MAY STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ONCE IT REACHES THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT BY THAT POINT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...WOULD ONLY EXPECT VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CWA.

BEHIND THE CLIPPER...THERE ISN/T ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF ADDITIONAL
BRUTAL ARCTIC AIR...HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS IN A TROUGH. THIS WILL AT LEAST
MAINTAIN THE COLD CONDITIONS /850 HPA TEMPS GENERALLY -10 TO -16 C/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD /MON THROUGH WED/ SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME MULTI BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NY /SCHOHARIE AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEYS/.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH VISIBILITY LIKELY BECOMING MVFR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NY
INCLUDING KPOU...AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT...WITH VISIBLITY LIKELY
TO BE IFR IN SNOW AND MIST BETWEEN 0800 AND 1400 GMT. NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AND A CLOUD DECK AROUND 5000
FT ASL. THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND KALB...WILL BE IN BETWEEN AND
IS LIKELY TO BECOME MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE BETWEEN 0800
AND 1000 GMT IN SNOW AND MIST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
LATE THIS MORNING AT KALB AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT KPOU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND THEN BECOME NORTH
WESTERLY AND PICK UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 15 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH. THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...
AND LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB AND KPOU NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN NT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RK
NEAR TERM...RK/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150548
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1248 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. READINGS WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EST WEDNESDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST
THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SPREADING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF BKN-OVC MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. DESPITE THE CLOUDINESS...COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND INTO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
SOME LOCATIONS IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VERMONT ALREADY IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO (CANAAN -17F) THOUGH REST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FELT THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
TREND WAS JUST A TAD SLOW AND UNDERDONE SO HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY AND LOWERED TEMPS EVER SO SLIGHTY. SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
PRIMARILY OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH A NORTHERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH EVEN COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS ALL INDICATES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 10 TO 20 BELOW EVERYWHERE WITH 20 TO 30
BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...FEELING THERE WILL NOT BE A WIND
CHILL ISSUE AS WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND FLOW WILL BE BACKING OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM
THIS WEEKEND ONWARD AS MEDIUM RANGE AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE SOLNS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING COLD CONDS ON SATURDAY SLOWLY
MODERATING THROUGH TIME ALONG WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR SHSN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A PC AND
GENERALLY DRY DAY...THOUGH WITH MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS STILL HOVERING IN
THE -23 TO -27C RANGE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW...ANOTHER
COLD DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

ADDL BUNDLES OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A REORIENTATION OF MEAN ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
SLIGHTLY WEST BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO
BACK AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS/CHCS OF LIGHT SNOWS BY SUNDAY AS
PARENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. SOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AMONG THIS
MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS/EURO RUNS...THOUGH WITH MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES DEPICTING SOLN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MEAN UPPER TROUGHING THEN PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH AN ADDL WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHCS FOR SHSN. MEAN ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT
A SLOW WARMING IN SFC TO MID LVL TEMPS FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS CORE
OF ARCTIC AIR MODERATES/LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...LATEST EURO RUN WOULD
OFFER AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF ARCTIC AIR RELOADING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND MAKING A RUN AT NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME RANGE...WILL OPT TO KEEP TUE/WED SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL FORECAST SITES
W/ CEILINGS BKN MID/HIGH CLDS. THEY WILL VARY SOMEWHAT FROM S TO N
THRU 15Z TODAY DO TO PROXIMITY OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO
OUR SOUTH. SOME BKN035 AT RUT POSSBLE FOR A FEW HRS W/ SOME SCT
FLURRIES THRU 15Z...OTHER ALL SITES SCT OUT BY MIDDAY WITH ONLY
MID/HIGH CLDS THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS NNW 5-10KTS WILL
BECM LGT/VAR 00Z FRI.

06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150200
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
900 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. READINGS WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM EST WEDNESDAY...VERY MINOR UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST
THIS EVENING MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SPREADING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF BKN-OVC MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. DESPITE THE CLOUDINESS...COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT HAS BEEN STRONG
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND INTO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
SOME LOCATIONS IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VERMONT ALREADY IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO (CANAAN -17F) THOUGH REST OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. FELT THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
TREND WAS JUST A TAD SLOW AND UNDERDONE SO HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY AND LOWERED TEMPS EVER SO SLIGHTY. SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...MORE ON THIS
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
PRIMARILY OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH A NORTHERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH EVEN COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS ALL INDICATES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 10 TO 20 BELOW EVERYWHERE WITH 20 TO 30
BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...FEELING THERE WILL NOT BE A WIND
CHILL ISSUE AS WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND FLOW WILL BE BACKING OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM
THIS WEEKEND ONWARD AS MEDIUM RANGE AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE SOLNS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING COLD CONDS ON SATURDAY SLOWLY
MODERATING THROUGH TIME ALONG WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR SHSN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A PC AND
GENERALLY DRY DAY...THOUGH WITH MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS STILL HOVERING IN
THE -23 TO -27C RANGE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW...ANOTHER
COLD DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

ADDL BUNDLES OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A REORIENTATION OF MEAN ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
SLIGHTLY WEST BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO
BACK AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS/CHCS OF LIGHT SNOWS BY SUNDAY AS
PARENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. SOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AMONG THIS
MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS/EURO RUNS...THOUGH WITH MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES DEPICTING SOLN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MEAN UPPER TROUGHING THEN PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH AN ADDL WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHCS FOR SHSN. MEAN ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT
A SLOW WARMING IN SFC TO MID LVL TEMPS FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS CORE
OF ARCTIC AIR MODERATES/LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...LATEST EURO RUN WOULD
OFFER AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF ARCTIC AIR RELOADING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND MAKING A RUN AT NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME RANGE...WILL OPT TO KEEP TUE/WED SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AT 01Z THURSDAY MOVES EAST. THIS
LOW WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT TO SEA. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR
IN ICE CRYSTALS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JMG
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 150100
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. READINGS WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...BACKING FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES AS
READINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS COLD IF THE CLOUDS WERE NOT
THERE. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY 5 TO 15 BELOW WITH SOME LOCALIZED
READINGS DOWN TO 20 BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
PRIMARILY OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH A NORTHERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH EVEN COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS ALL INDICATES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 10 TO 20 BELOW EVERYWHERE WITH 20 TO 30
BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...FEELING THERE WILL NOT BE A WIND
CHILL ISSUE AS WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND FLOW WILL BE BACKING OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM
THIS WEEKEND ONWARD AS MEDIUM RANGE AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE SOLNS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING COLD CONDS ON SATURDAY SLOWLY
MODERATING THROUGH TIME ALONG WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR SHSN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A PC AND
GENERALLY DRY DAY...THOUGH WITH MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS STILL HOVERING IN
THE -23 TO -27C RANGE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW...ANOTHER
COLD DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

ADDL BUNDLES OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A REORIENTATION OF MEAN ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
SLIGHTLY WEST BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO
BACK AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS/CHCS OF LIGHT SNOWS BY SUNDAY AS
PARENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. SOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AMONG THIS
MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS/EURO RUNS...THOUGH WITH MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES DEPICTING SOLN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MEAN UPPER TROUGHING THEN PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH AN ADDL WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHCS FOR SHSN. MEAN ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT
A SLOW WARMING IN SFC TO MID LVL TEMPS FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS CORE
OF ARCTIC AIR MODERATES/LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...LATEST EURO RUN WOULD
OFFER AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF ARCTIC AIR RELOADING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND MAKING A RUN AT NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME RANGE...WILL OPT TO KEEP TUE/WED SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AT 01Z THURSDAY MOVES EAST. THIS
LOW WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT TO SEA. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR
IN ICE CRYSTALS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK.

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JMG
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KALY 142337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO
THE REGION. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
STORM SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...CONTINUING OUR VERY COLD BUT DRY PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITHIN MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER. TEMPS HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 15-20 ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE DACKS AND NORTH
COUNTRY STRUGGLED TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WINDS
ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION...WHERE THEY HAVE PERSISTED AT 10-20 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
INTENSIFY TO THE N AND NE OF THIS LOW...ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO
EXPAND NE INTO OUR REGION. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION. THEN...AROUND AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GREATER 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TRANSLATE
ENE ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING A STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE GREATEST FORCING WILL OCCUR ACROSS
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS...WHICH SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA...RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1. THUS...WE HAVE PLACED
ADVISORIES FOR THIS SOUTHERN REGION...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 3-6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST FURTHER S. CLOSER TO THE
CAPITAL REGION...1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY
INTO THE BERKS...WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
GENERALLY RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH. FOR AREAS TO THE N...WE EXPECT
ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OT FALL...WITH A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE.

FOR MINS...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WE DO NOT
EXPECT MINS TO FALL MUCH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME WET BULBING ONCE SNOW
BEGINS...WE STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE
RANGE ACROSS MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH KGFL POSSIBLY FALLING TO
BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN BELOW ZERO...AND MANY ADIRONDACK AREAS FALLING
TO -10 TO -15. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT...LESS THAN 5
MPH LATER TONIGHT...THUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL
TEMPS...AND NO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THU...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ACCUMS.
THEN...SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES COULD
LINGER...ESP CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. AS FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO COLDER MAV MOS...WITH HIGHS REACHING
AROUND 10-15 ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY RISE
A FEW DEGREES...TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20 ACROSS THE DACKS
AND NORTH COUNTRY...AND -5 TO -15 CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

THU NT...CLEAR AND POTENTIALLY VERY COLD...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
WINDS DIMINISH. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
READINGS...WITH -10 TO -15 ACROSS MANY VALLEY REGIONS NEAR THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND -15 TO -25 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ZERO TO -5 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME LINGERING WIND COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THIS
PERIOD...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS/DACKS/SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.

FRI-FRI NT...UPPER LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...LEADING TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HOWEVER...ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AND WESTERN
HAMILTON COS...A FAVORABLE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...COMBINING WITH THE COLD MID LEVELS MAY PROMOTE A SINGLE
BAND LE SNOW EVENT...WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS HOW FAR E SUCH A BAND MAY EXTEND...AS DRY MID LEVELS AND
DEEP MIXING COULD LIMIT BAND STRENGTH ACROSS THE DACKS. THUS...FOR
NOW...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY WATCHES...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS REGION FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAXES TO AGAIN REMAIN VERY COLD...GENERALLY 5-10 ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...AND -5 TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS
FRI NT/SAT AM FALLING CLOSE TO...OR JUST A SHADE ABOVE THOSE ON FRI
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. 850 HPA TEMPS OF -18
TO -22 C WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. ALONG WITH A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE /AROUND 1035 HPA/...SATURDAY WILL BE A
DRY DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DACKS/UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH...THIS SHOULD BE SQUELCHED BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
ALSO...THE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WIND...SO THE WIND CHILL WON/T BE TOO MUCH
LOWER THAN THE SFC TEMPS /MAXES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS./

THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER LOW. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN OPEN 500 HPA WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON SUN.
THE SURFACE FEATURE MAY STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ONCE IT REACHES THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT BY THAT POINT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...WOULD ONLY EXPECT VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CWA.

BEHIND THE CLIPPER...THERE ISN/T ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF ADDITIONAL
BRUTAL ARCTIC AIR...HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS IN A TROUGH. THIS WILL AT LEAST
MAINTAIN THE COLD CONDITIONS /850 HPA TEMPS GENERALLY -10 TO -16 C/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD /MON THROUGH WED/ SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME MULTI BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NY /SCHOHARIE AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEYS/.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DETERIORATING WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT AT KALB
AND KPOU AS A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. THE
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM NOT LIKELY TO REACH KGFL AND HAVE ONLY
FORECAST A PERIOD OF VCSH THERE BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. BETWEEN 06Z AND
14Z HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KALB DUE TO LIGHT SNOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM...AND AT KPOU HAVE FORECAST IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
06Z AND 17Z. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (00Z FRIDAY).

GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AT ALL THREE SITES. THEN AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS OUT TO
SEA...NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT KALB THESE WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND
20 KTS.

OUTLOOK....
THU NITE-FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB AND KPOU NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN NT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 142235
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO
THE REGION. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
STORM SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...CONTINUING OUR VERY COLD BUT DRY PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITHIN MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER. TEMPS HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 15-20 ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE DACKS AND NORTH
COUNTRY STRUGGLED TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WINDS
ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION...WHERE THEY HAVE PERSISTED AT 10-20 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
INTENSIFY TO THE N AND NE OF THIS LOW...ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO
EXPAND NE INTO OUR REGION. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION. THEN...AROUND AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GREATER 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TRANSLATE
ENE ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING A STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE GREATEST FORCING WILL OCCUR ACROSS
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS...WHICH SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA...RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1. THUS...WE HAVE PLACED
ADVISORIES FOR THIS SOUTHERN REGION...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 3-6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST FURTHER S. CLOSER TO THE
CAPITAL REGION...1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY
INTO THE BERKS...WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
GENERALLY RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH. FOR AREAS TO THE N...WE EXPECT
ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OT FALL...WITH A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE.

FOR MINS...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WE DO NOT
EXPECT MINS TO FALL MUCH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME WET BULBING ONCE SNOW
BEGINS...WE STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE
RANGE ACROSS MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH KGFL POSSIBLY FALLING TO
BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN BELOW ZERO...AND MANY ADIRONDACK AREAS FALLING
TO -10 TO -15. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT...LESS THAN 5
MPH LATER TONIGHT...THUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL
TEMPS...AND NO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THU...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ACCUMS.
THEN...SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES COULD
LINGER...ESP CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. AS FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO COLDER MAV MOS...WITH HIGHS REACHING
AROUND 10-15 ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY RISE
A FEW DEGREES...TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20 ACROSS THE DACKS
AND NORTH COUNTRY...AND -5 TO -15 CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

THU NT...CLEAR AND POTENTIALLY VERY COLD...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
WINDS DIMINISH. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
READINGS...WITH -10 TO -15 ACROSS MANY VALLEY REGIONS NEAR THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND -15 TO -25 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ZERO TO -5 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME LINGERING WIND COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THIS
PERIOD...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS/DACKS/SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.

FRI-FRI NT...UPPER LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...LEADING TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HOWEVER...ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AND WESTERN
HAMILTON COS...A FAVORABLE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...COMBINING WITH THE COLD MID LEVELS MAY PROMOTE A SINGLE
BAND LE SNOW EVENT...WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS HOW FAR E SUCH A BAND MAY EXTEND...AS DRY MID LEVELS AND
DEEP MIXING COULD LIMIT BAND STRENGTH ACROSS THE DACKS. THUS...FOR
NOW...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY WATCHES...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS REGION FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAXES TO AGAIN REMAIN VERY COLD...GENERALLY 5-10 ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...AND -5 TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS
FRI NT/SAT AM FALLING CLOSE TO...OR JUST A SHADE ABOVE THOSE ON FRI
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. 850 HPA TEMPS OF -18
TO -22 C WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. ALONG WITH A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE /AROUND 1035 HPA/...SATURDAY WILL BE A
DRY DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DACKS/UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH...THIS SHOULD BE SQUELCHED BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
ALSO...THE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WIND...SO THE WIND CHILL WON/T BE TOO MUCH
LOWER THAN THE SFC TEMPS /MAXES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS./

THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER LOW. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN OPEN 500 HPA WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON SUN.
THE SURFACE FEATURE MAY STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ONCE IT REACHES THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT BY THAT POINT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...WOULD ONLY EXPECT VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CWA.

BEHIND THE CLIPPER...THERE ISN/T ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF ADDITIONAL
BRUTAL ARCTIC AIR...HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS IN A TROUGH. THIS WILL AT LEAST
MAINTAIN THE COLD CONDITIONS /850 HPA TEMPS GENERALLY -10 TO -16 C/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD /MON THROUGH WED/ SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME MULTI BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NY /SCHOHARIE AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEYS/.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DETERIORATING WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW SHOWERS. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS PA...PRODUCING A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 00Z. SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH...AFFECTING
KPOU BY 08Z...KALB BY 09Z AND KGFL BY 12Z. KPOU WILL RECEIVE THE
BRUNT OF THIS CLIPPER IN OUR CWA...RESULTING IN IFR VSBYS WITH THE
ONSET OF -SN. KALB WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SNOW. -SN EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING.

KALB WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CHANNELING
DOWN THE MOHAWK...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT
ALL TERMINALS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING NORTHERLY AFTER 07Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB AND KPOU NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN NT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 142129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO
THE REGION. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
STORM SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...CONTINUING OUR VERY COLD BUT DRY PATTERN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITHIN MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER. TEMPS HAVE BRIEFLY RISEN TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES NEAR THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 15-20 ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE DACKS AND NORTH
COUNTRY STRUGGLED TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WINDS
ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION...WHERE THEY HAVE PERSISTED AT 10-20 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
INTENSIFY TO THE N AND NE OF THIS LOW...ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO
EXPAND NE INTO OUR REGION. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...MAINLY FROM THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION. THEN...AROUND AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...GREATER 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL TRANSLATE
ENE ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING A STEADIER SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE GREATEST FORCING WILL OCCUR ACROSS
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COS...WHICH SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH AREA...RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST
SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS IN EXCESS OF 20:1. THUS...WE HAVE PLACED
ADVISORIES FOR THIS SOUTHERN REGION...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 3-6
INCHES OF SNOWFALL...WITH THE HIGHEST FURTHER S. CLOSER TO THE
CAPITAL REGION...1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY
INTO THE BERKS...WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
GENERALLY RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH. FOR AREAS TO THE N...WE EXPECT
ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OT FALL...WITH A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE.

FOR MINS...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WE DO NOT
EXPECT MINS TO FALL MUCH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME WET BULBING ONCE SNOW
BEGINS...WE STILL EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE
RANGE ACROSS MANY VALLEY AREAS...WITH KGFL POSSIBLY FALLING TO
BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN BELOW ZERO...AND MANY ADIRONDACK AREAS FALLING
TO -10 TO -15. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT...LESS THAN 5
MPH LATER TONIGHT...THUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL
TEMPS...AND NO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THU...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ACCUMS.
THEN...SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES COULD
LINGER...ESP CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. AS FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT CLOSE TO COLDER MAV MOS...WITH HIGHS REACHING
AROUND 10-15 ACROSS THE VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ONLY RISE
A FEW DEGREES...TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING WIND CHILLS OF -10 TO -20 ACROSS THE DACKS
AND NORTH COUNTRY...AND -5 TO -15 CLOSE TO THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE WINDS INCREASE TO
15-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

THU NT...CLEAR AND POTENTIALLY VERY COLD...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
WINDS DIMINISH. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
READINGS...WITH -10 TO -15 ACROSS MANY VALLEY REGIONS NEAR THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND -15 TO -25 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SOUTHERN VT...WITH ZERO TO -5 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME LINGERING WIND COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THIS
PERIOD...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS/DACKS/SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA.

FRI-FRI NT...UPPER LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...LEADING TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY...AND POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. HOWEVER...ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AND WESTERN
HAMILTON COS...A FAVORABLE WSW FLOW ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...COMBINING WITH THE COLD MID LEVELS MAY PROMOTE A SINGLE
BAND LE SNOW EVENT...WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS HOW FAR E SUCH A BAND MAY EXTEND...AS DRY MID LEVELS AND
DEEP MIXING COULD LIMIT BAND STRENGTH ACROSS THE DACKS. THUS...FOR
NOW...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY WATCHES...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS REGION FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAXES TO AGAIN REMAIN VERY COLD...GENERALLY 5-10 ACROSS THE
VALLEYS...AND -5 TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH MIN TEMPS
FRI NT/SAT AM FALLING CLOSE TO...OR JUST A SHADE ABOVE THOSE ON FRI
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE SCALE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND. 850 HPA TEMPS OF -18
TO -22 C WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. ALONG WITH A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE /AROUND 1035 HPA/...SATURDAY WILL BE A
DRY DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY COLD TEMPS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DACKS/UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...BUT WITH THE APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH...THIS SHOULD BE SQUELCHED BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
ALSO...THE LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WIND...SO THE WIND CHILL WON/T BE TOO MUCH
LOWER THAN THE SFC TEMPS /MAXES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS./

THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE YET ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER LOW. THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN OPEN 500 HPA WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ON SUN.
THE SURFACE FEATURE MAY STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT ONCE IT REACHES THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT BY THAT POINT IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR
EAST TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA. AS A RESULT...CAN EXPECT
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING...WOULD ONLY EXPECT VERY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE CWA.

BEHIND THE CLIPPER...THERE ISN/T ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF ADDITIONAL
BRUTAL ARCTIC AIR...HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS IN A TROUGH. THIS WILL AT LEAST
MAINTAIN THE COLD CONDITIONS /850 HPA TEMPS GENERALLY -10 TO -16 C/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PERIOD /MON THROUGH WED/ SHOULD BE FAIRLY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME MULTI BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR AREAS CLOSER TO CENTRAL NY /SCHOHARIE AND UPPER MOHAWK
VALLEYS/.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DETERIORATING WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW SHOWERS. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS PA...PRODUCING A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 00Z. SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH...AFFECTING
KPOU BY 08Z...KALB BY 09Z AND KGFL BY 12Z. KPOU WILL RECEIVE THE
BRUNT OF THIS CLIPPER IN OUR CWA...RESULTING IN IFR VSBYS WITH THE
ONSET OF -SN. KALB WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SNOW. -SN EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING.

KALB WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CHANNELING
DOWN THE MOHAWK...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT
ALL TERMINALS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING NORTHERLY AFTER 07Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB AND KPOU NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN NT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 142002
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY RIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. READINGS WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...BACKING FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES AS
READINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS COLD IF THE CLOUDS WERE NOT
THERE. THUS LOOKING AT MAINLY 5 TO 15 BELOW WITH SOME LOCALIZED
READINGS DOWN TO 20 BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
PRIMARILY OVER RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE WITH A NORTHERLY GRADIENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH EVEN COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA...WOULD EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. CLEARING
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AND THIS ALL INDICATES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEK. EXPECT 10 TO 20 BELOW EVERYWHERE WITH 20 TO 30
BELOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...FEELING THERE WILL NOT BE A WIND
CHILL ISSUE AS WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND FLOW WILL BE BACKING OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IDEA IS ALREADY
IN THE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS IDEA WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST FROM
THIS WEEKEND ONWARD AS MEDIUM RANGE AND SUPPORTING ENSEMBLE SOLNS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING COLD CONDS ON SATURDAY SLOWLY
MODERATING THROUGH TIME ALONG WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW
AND/OR SHSN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A PC AND
GENERALLY DRY DAY...THOUGH WITH MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS STILL HOVERING IN
THE -23 TO -27C RANGE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW...ANOTHER
COLD DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

ADDL BUNDLES OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO GREAT LAKES STATES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A REORIENTATION OF MEAN ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH
SLIGHTLY WEST BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO
BACK AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS/CHCS OF LIGHT SNOWS BY SUNDAY AS
PARENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. SOME
TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AMONG THIS
MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GFS/EURO RUNS...THOUGH WITH MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES DEPICTING SOLN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MEAN UPPER TROUGHING THEN PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD WITH AN ADDL WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHCS FOR SHSN. MEAN ENSEMBLES WOULD SUPPORT
A SLOW WARMING IN SFC TO MID LVL TEMPS FROM MONDAY ONWARD AS CORE
OF ARCTIC AIR MODERATES/LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...LATEST EURO RUN WOULD
OFFER AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF ARCTIC AIR RELOADING ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND MAKING A RUN AT NEW ENGLAND ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME RANGE...WILL OPT TO KEEP TUE/WED SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...NO PCPN AND PREDOMINANT VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY
FLOW SLOWLY ABATES BY THIS EVENING AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE KSLK TERMINAL
IN BR/IC OVERNIGHT...OTW NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY MID
TO HIGH LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN THROUGH TIME AS WEAK SFC LOW PASSES
WELL SOUTH OF REGION UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/JN
CLIMATE...BANACOS/CL

000
FXUS61 KALY 141748
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND DROP THE
HEADLINE FOR THE DACKS. DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH. THIS SEEMS TO
BE CAPTURED BY THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH...THESE SEEM A
COUPLE DEGREES TOO HIGH. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER FROM NEXT CLIPPER
WAS FAST APPROACHING AND WILL BE ON TOP OF OUR NY CWA BY THIS
EVENING.

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ARCTIC AIRMASS POURING IN EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE A VERY
COLD DAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. MODEL 850
MB AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR RANGING FROM ABOUT -16C
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO AROUND -23C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
POSTED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN FULTON
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS REGION...SPINNING
UP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR
A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING DELMARVA BY
12Z/THURSDAY...THEN PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THIS SOUTHERLY
SHIFT IN TRACK MEANS LIGHTER QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL HAVE ONLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...NO NEED FOR A HEADLINE. THE STEADY
SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH
BELOW ZERO LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS -20 TO -30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALOFT THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW
WILL FORM NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN
HEAD SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS QUEBEC.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A
TOUGH TIME WITH AIR MASSES THAT GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...NEED 5+ MPH FOR ANY TYPE OF WIND
CHILL HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SO NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED...BUT BITTERLY COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOWS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FIRST CLIPPER DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND CLIPPER WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST MONDAY...AS A THIRD CLIPPER
TAKES A NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO PUT DOWN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW... PERHAPS EVEN MORE
CONSIDERING THE FLUFF FACTOR...OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO OR WHERE SNOWFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. THE OTHER TWO WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE...IF
ANY...SNOWFALL ASIDE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WESTERN
STATES AS A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE START... NEARLY 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND GRADUALLY MODERATE TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALBANY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. WE MOSTLY WENT WITH GMOS GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE GRIDS
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
DETERIORATING WITH THE ONSET OF SNOW SHOWERS. A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS PA...PRODUCING A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS AT
ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z. SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH...AFFECTING KPOU BY 08Z...KALB BY 09Z AND KGFL BY 12Z. KPOU
WILL RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS CLIPPER IN OUR CWA...RESULTING IN
IFR VSBYS WITH THE ONSET OF -SN. KALB WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH SNOW. -SN
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.

KALB WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CHANNELING
DOWN THE MOHAWK...WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT
ALL TERMINALS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TO
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING NORTHERLY AFTER 07Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK....
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRI NT...MVFR/KGFL LAKE EFFECT -SHSN...VFR/KALB AND KPOU NO SIG WX.
SAT-SUN NT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHSN.
MON...VFR/MVFR...SLGT CHC -SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY NY:

FOR TODAY 1/14...
RECORD LOW: -24 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: ZERO DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -7.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1914

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
RECORD LOW: -20 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: -7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -13.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
RECORD LOW: -16 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 2 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -6 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994

FOR SATURDAY 1/17...
RECORD LOW: -23 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1982
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -4.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971

THE LAST TIME...

     THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY NY WAS LESS THAN -10 DEGREES...WAS
BACK ON JANUARY 28 2005 WHEN THE LOW REACHED -16 DEGREES.

     THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS ONLY ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 14 2004.

     THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4 1981 WHEN THE HIGH ONLY REACHED -2 DEGREES.

     THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 28 2005...WITH A MEAN OF -2 DEGREES (HIGH 12 AND LOW -16).

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...RCK
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 141711
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1210 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE HOLD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF GRADUALLY
DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WEAKENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EVER SO SLOWLY SUGGEST
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WILL CHILL ISSUES WILL COME TO AN END. THUS
HAVE ENDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20
BELOW RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY AND THUS HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT.
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ABUNDANT MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 BELOW
FOR THE NE KINGDOM AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FEW READINGS TO 20
BELOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS.

AS SFC LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...SFC WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ON THURSDAY
FALL INTO THE UPR 480DMS...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -28 TO -30C. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
BY 3-5F...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. NLY DRAINAGE FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR THRU THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY KEEP KBTV TO A HIGH OF 0F FOR
THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES COULD SEE SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
BURLINGTON SHORE SWD THRU SHELBURNE/CHARLOTTE AREAS. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SERN SHORE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT. SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WE MAY
NEED ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THURSDAY TO COVER
READINGS 15 TO 25 BELOW. DEFINITELY A FRIGID DAY ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY...BUT WITH
AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN NWLY FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE CRITICAL. IF THEY HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
A BIT COLDER THAN FORECAST. RIGHT NOW THINKING 20 TO 30 BELOW FOR
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT...AND GENERALLY 10 TO 20 BELOW
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA MAY BACK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY TO
GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO NWD INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES. ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM WAA
SNOWFALL WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN NY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND N-CENTRAL VT ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AFTN. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
AND POSSIBLY NEAR 10F FOR THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE CT RIVER VALLEY IN WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE
LONG-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF
FOR MONDAY...TRACKING DUE NORTH FROM SOUTH OF CAPE COD INTO
S-CENTRAL MAINE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING
MODERATE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WE HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THAT TREND YET...AS OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS
NO SUCH SYSTEM. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE SE OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WITH A TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THAT WOULDN/T SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW WITH LARGE SPREAD
IN AVAILABLE SOLNS.

THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXCEPTING THE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF...THINKING IS FOR 30-40
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN GENERAL WEAK-MODERATE WAA REGIME IN SOUTH
TO SW FLOW...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 20F ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 20S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THESE READINGS ARE STILL AT TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT THE RELATIVE RISE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WED-FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...NO PCPN AND PREDOMINANT VFR CONDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY
FLOW SLOWLY ABATES BY THIS EVENING AND MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SOME MVFR VSBYS POSSBL AT THE KSLK TERMINAL
IN BR/IC OVERNIGHT...OTW NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY MID
TO HIGH LVL CLOUDS SLOWLY THIN THROUGH TIME AS WEAK SFC LOW PASSES
WELL SOUTH OF REGION UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS.

18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THU NIGHT...VFR

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO AS SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG EXPECTED.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN  LIGHT SNOWS
AND/OR SHSN.

MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

ALSO OF INTEREST...THE LAST TIME BURLINGTON HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
ZERO OR LESS WAS NEARLY 4 YEARS AGO ON 21 JANUARY 2005...WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY -3F. WE PROBABLY HAVE BETTER THAN EVEN
CHANCES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ZERO OR LESS ON THURSDAY AT THE
BURLINGTON INTL AIRPORT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...JMG
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 141605
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1105 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE HOLD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1105 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF GRADUALLY
DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WEAKENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EVER SO SLOWLY SUGGEST
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WILL CHILL ISSUES WILL COME TO AN END. THUS
HAVE ENDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20
BELOW RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...COLD AIR
ADVECTION TODAY WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY AND THUS HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT.
ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ABUNDANT MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 BELOW
FOR THE NE KINGDOM AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FEW READINGS TO 20
BELOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS.

AS SFC LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...SFC WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ON THURSDAY
FALL INTO THE UPR 480DMS...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -28 TO -30C. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
BY 3-5F...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. NLY DRAINAGE FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR THRU THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY KEEP KBTV TO A HIGH OF 0F FOR
THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES COULD SEE SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
BURLINGTON SHORE SWD THRU SHELBURNE/CHARLOTTE AREAS. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SERN SHORE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT. SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WE MAY
NEED ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THURSDAY TO COVER
READINGS 15 TO 25 BELOW. DEFINITELY A FRIGID DAY ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY...BUT WITH
AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN NWLY FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE CRITICAL. IF THEY HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
A BIT COLDER THAN FORECAST. RIGHT NOW THINKING 20 TO 30 BELOW FOR
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT...AND GENERALLY 10 TO 20 BELOW
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA MAY BACK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY TO
GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO NWD INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES. ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM WAA
SNOWFALL WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN NY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND N-CENTRAL VT ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AFTN. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
AND POSSIBLY NEAR 10F FOR THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE CT RIVER VALLEY IN WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE
LONG-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF
FOR MONDAY...TRACKING DUE NORTH FROM SOUTH OF CAPE COD INTO
S-CENTRAL MAINE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING
MODERATE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WE HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THAT TREND YET...AS OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS
NO SUCH SYSTEM. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE SE OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WITH A TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THAT WOULDN/T SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW WITH LARGE SPREAD
IN AVAILABLE SOLNS.

THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXCEPTING THE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF...THINKING IS FOR 30-40
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN GENERAL WEAK-MODERATE WAA REGIME IN SOUTH
TO SW FLOW...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 20F ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 20S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THESE READINGS ARE STILL AT TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT THE RELATIVE RISE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WED-FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL SEE VFR COND WITH MAINLY
MID/HIGH CLD EXPECTED...AND WNW WINDS 10-20KTS DECR DURING THE
DAY AND EVENTUALLY BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURS FOR ALL FORECAST
SITES.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOWS WED
NIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...OCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

ALSO OF INTEREST...THE LAST TIME BURLINGTON HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
ZERO OR LESS WAS NEARLY 4 YEARS AGO ON 21 JANUARY 2005...WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY -3F. WE PROBABLY HAVE BETTER THAN EVEN
CHANCES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ZERO OR LESS ON THURSDAY AT THE
BURLINGTON INTL AIRPORT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 141552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND DROP THE
HEADLINE FOR THE DACKS. DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH. THIS SEEMS TO
BE CAPTURED BY THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH...THESE SEEM A
COUPLE DEGREES TOO HIGH. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER FROM NEXT CLIPPER
WAS FAST APPROACHING AND WILL BE ON TOP OF OUR NY CWA BY THIS
EVENING.

REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ARCTIC AIRMASS POURING IN EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE A VERY
COLD DAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. MODEL 850
MB AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR RANGING FROM ABOUT -16C
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO AROUND -23C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
POSTED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN FULTON
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS REGION...SPINNING
UP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR
A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING DELMARVA BY
12Z/THURSDAY...THEN PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THIS SOUTHERLY
SHIFT IN TRACK MEANS LIGHTER QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL HAVE ONLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...NO NEED FOR A HEADLINE. THE STEADY
SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH
BELOW ZERO LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS -20 TO -30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALOFT THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW
WILL FORM NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN
HEAD SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS QUEBEC.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A
TOUGH TIME WITH AIR MASSES THAT GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...NEED 5+ MPH FOR ANY TYPE OF WIND
CHILL HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SO NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED...BUT BITTERLY COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOWS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FIRST CLIPPER DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND CLIPPER WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST MONDAY...AS A THIRD CLIPPER
TAKES A NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO PUT DOWN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW... PERHAPS EVEN MORE
CONSIDERING THE FLUFF FACTOR...OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO OR WHERE SNOWFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. THE OTHER TWO WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE...IF
ANY...SNOWFALL ASIDE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WESTERN
STATES AS A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE START... NEARLY 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND GRADUALLY MODERATE TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALBANY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. WE MOSTLY WENT WITH GMOS GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE GRIDS
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD DAY IS ON TAP WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. LAKE AND TERRAIN EFFECT CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS WITH SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED CLOUDS AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRE HILLS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES SHOULD ENJOY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT ALBANY BUT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE LOW IN THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10000 FT BY
EVENING AND TO AROUND 5000 FT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR SOUTH OF
ALBANY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY MAKE ITS WAY
AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY BY DAYBREAK AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND THEN HEADS OUT TO SEA.

OUTLOOK....
THU...MVFR/IFR...CIG -SN...MAINLY S OF KALB.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY NY:

FOR TODAY 1/14...
RECORD LOW: -24 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: ZERO DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -7.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1914

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
RECORD LOW: -20 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: -7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -13.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
RECORD LOW: -16 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 2 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -6 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994

FOR SATURDAY 1/17...
RECORD LOW: -23 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1982
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -4.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971

THE LAST TIME...

     THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY NY WAS LESS THAN -10 DEGREES...WAS
BACK ON JANUARY 28 2005 WHEN THE LOW REACHED -16 DEGREES.

     THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS ONLY ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 14 2004.

     THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4 1981 WHEN THE HIGH ONLY REACHED -2 DEGREES.

     THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 28 2005...WITH A MEAN OF -2 DEGREES (HIGH 12 AND LOW -16).

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 141152
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING
ON MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL YIELD LOW WIND
CHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
SLOWLY MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE RAPIDLY
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS VT REQUIRES ISSUANCE OF A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF CWA EXCEPT RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED WSW STATEMENT...AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURE AND
WIND CHILL GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING VERY RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-
LEVEL DRYING HAS BROUGHT THE EXPECTED RAPID END TO SNOW
SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY AND HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 3 AM. OTHERWISE...WE COULD HAVE SOME
BLACK ICE FORMATION ON AREA ROADWAYS OWING TO THE NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY FOLLOWED BY THE RAPID DROP UNDERWAY. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF ICY
ROADS POSSIBLE THRU THE MORNING COMMUTE.

HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAV TEMPERATURES TODAY. MET-MOS NUMBERS
LOOK CLOSER...BUT HIGHS IN VERMONT WILL LARGELY OCCUR AT 12Z AND
HAVE TRIED TO TIME WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THAT HOUR. COLD
ADVECTION DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO FORESEE
TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE ZERO AT KMSS OR KSLK. THINKING MID
SINGLE DIGITS FOR BTV/PBG. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 26 BELOW
ACROSS VT BUT DOWN TO 20 TO 29 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE COLDER AIR IS IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WITH INSOLATION LARGELY INEFFECTIVE AS
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FALL TO AROUND 500DM ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ABUNDANT MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 BELOW
FOR THE NE KINGDOM AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FEW READINGS TO 20
BELOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS.

AS SFC LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...SFC WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ON THURSDAY
FALL INTO THE UPR 480DMS...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -28 TO -30C. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
BY 3-5F...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. NLY DRAINAGE FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR THRU THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY KEEP KBTV TO A HIGH OF 0F FOR
THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES COULD SEE SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
BURLINGTON SHORE SWD THRU SHELBURNE/CHARLOTTE AREAS. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SERN SHORE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT. SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WE MAY
NEED ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THURSDAY TO COVER
READINGS 15 TO 25 BELOW. DEFINITELY A FRIGID DAY ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY...BUT WITH
AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN NWLY FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE CRITICAL. IF THEY HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
A BIT COLDER THAN FORECAST. RIGHT NOW THINKING 20 TO 30 BELOW FOR
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT...AND GENERALLY 10 TO 20 BELOW
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA MAY BACK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY TO
GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO NWD INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES. ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM WAA
SNOWFALL WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN NY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND N-CENTRAL VT ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AFTN. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
AND POSSIBLY NEAR 10F FOR THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE CT RIVER VALLEY IN WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE
LONG-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF
FOR MONDAY...TRACKING DUE NORTH FROM SOUTH OF CAPE COD INTO
S-CENTRAL MAINE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING
MODERATE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WE HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THAT TREND YET...AS OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS
NO SUCH SYSTEM. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE SE OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WITH A TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THAT WOULDN/T SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW WITH LARGE SPREAD
IN AVAILABLE SOLNS.

THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXCEPTING THE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF...THINKING IS FOR 30-40
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN GENERAL WEAK-MODERATE WAA REGIME IN SOUTH
TO SW FLOW...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 20F ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 20S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THESE READINGS ARE STILL AT TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT THE RELATIVE RISE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WED-FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...ALL SITES WILL SEE VFR COND WITH MAINLY
MID/HIGH CLD EXPECTED...AND WNW WINDS 10-20KTS DECR DURING THE
DAY AND EVENTUALLY BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURS FOR ALL FORECAST
SITES.

12Z THURSDAY HROUGH SUNDAY...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOWS WED
NIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...OCCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

ALSO OF INTEREST...THE LAST TIME BURLINGTON HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
ZERO OR LESS WAS NEARLY 4 YEARS AGO ON 21 JANUARY 2005...WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY -3F. WE PROBABLY HAVE BETTER THAN EVEN
CHANCES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ZERO OR LESS ON THURSDAY AT THE
BURLINGTON INTL AIRPORT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ001>010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 141135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING
ON MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL YIELD LOW WIND
CHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
SLOWLY MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 632 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE RAPIDLY
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS VT REQUIRES ISSUANCE OF A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF CWA EXCEPT RUTLAND/WINDSOR
COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED WSW STATEMENT...AND MODIFIED TEMPERATURE AND
WIND CHILL GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED.

PREV DISC...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING VERY RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-
LEVEL DRYING HAS BROUGHT THE EXPECTED RAPID END TO SNOW
SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY AND HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 3 AM. OTHERWISE...WE COULD HAVE SOME
BLACK ICE FORMATION ON AREA ROADWAYS OWING TO THE NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY FOLLOWED BY THE RAPID DROP UNDERWAY. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF ICY
ROADS POSSIBLE THRU THE MORNING COMMUTE.

HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAV TEMPERATURES TODAY. MET-MOS NUMBERS
LOOK CLOSER...BUT HIGHS IN VERMONT WILL LARGELY OCCUR AT 12Z AND
HAVE TRIED TO TIME WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THAT HOUR. COLD
ADVECTION DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO FORESEE
TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE ZERO AT KMSS OR KSLK. THINKING MID
SINGLE DIGITS FOR BTV/PBG. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 26 BELOW
ACROSS VT BUT DOWN TO 20 TO 29 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE COLDER AIR IS IN PLACE. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WITH INSOLATION LARGELY INEFFECTIVE AS
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FALL TO AROUND 500DM ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ABUNDANT MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 BELOW
FOR THE NE KINGDOM AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FEW READINGS TO 20
BELOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS.

AS SFC LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...SFC WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ON THURSDAY
FALL INTO THE UPR 480DMS...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -28 TO -30C. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
BY 3-5F...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. NLY DRAINAGE FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR THRU THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY KEEP KBTV TO A HIGH OF 0F FOR
THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES COULD SEE SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
BURLINGTON SHORE SWD THRU SHELBURNE/CHARLOTTE AREAS. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SERN SHORE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT. SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WE MAY
NEED ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THURSDAY TO COVER
READINGS 15 TO 25 BELOW. DEFINITELY A FRIGID DAY ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY...BUT WITH
AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN NWLY FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE CRITICAL. IF THEY HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
A BIT COLDER THAN FORECAST. RIGHT NOW THINKING 20 TO 30 BELOW FOR
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT...AND GENERALLY 10 TO 20 BELOW
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA MAY BACK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY TO
GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO NWD INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES. ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM WAA
SNOWFALL WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN NY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND N-CENTRAL VT ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AFTN. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
AND POSSIBLY NEAR 10F FOR THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE CT RIVER VALLEY IN WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE
LONG-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF
FOR MONDAY...TRACKING DUE NORTH FROM SOUTH OF CAPE COD INTO
S-CENTRAL MAINE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING
MODERATE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WE HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THAT TREND YET...AS OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS
NO SUCH SYSTEM. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE SE OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WITH A TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THAT WOULDN/T SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW WITH LARGE SPREAD
IN AVAILABLE SOLNS.

THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXCEPTING THE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF...THINKING IS FOR 30-40
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN GENERAL WEAK-MODERATE WAA REGIME IN SOUTH
TO SW FLOW...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 20F ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 20S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THESE READINGS ARE STILL AT TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT THE RELATIVE RISE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WED-FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...THRU 09Z THIS MORNING...ALL SITES WILL SEE
MVFR/IFR COND DO TO EITHER -SW FALLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH CD
FROPA OR VSBY REDUCTION DO TO STRONG NW WINDS CREATING BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UP TO 15-25KTS. OTHERWISE AFT
09Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLD
EXPECTED...AND WNW WINDS DECR DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY BECM
LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURS FOR ALL FORECAST SITES.

06Z THURSDAY HROUGH SUNDAY...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOWS WED
NIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...OCCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

ALSO OF INTEREST...THE LAST TIME BURLINGTON HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
ZERO OR LESS WAS NEARLY 4 YEARS AGO ON 21 JANUARY 2005...WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY -3F. WE PROBABLY HAVE BETTER THAN EVEN
CHANCES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ZERO OR LESS ON THURSDAY AT THE
BURLINGTON INTL AIRPORT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ001>010-016>018.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...BANACOS/CL

000
FXUS61 KALY 141133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ARCTIC AIRMASS POURING IN EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD
DAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. MODEL 850 MB AND
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR RANGING FROM ABOUT -16C ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO AROUND -23C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS REGION...SPINNING
UP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR
A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING DELMARVA BY
12Z/THURSDAY...THEN PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THIS SOUTHERLY
SHIFT IN TRACK MEANS LIGHTER QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL HAVE ONLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...NO NEED FOR A HEADLINE. THE STEADY
SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH
BELOW ZERO LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS -20 TO -30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALOFT THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW
WILL FORM NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN
HEAD SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS QUEBEC.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A
TOUGH TIME WITH AIR MASSES THAT GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...NEED 5+ MPH FOR ANY TYPE OF WIND
CHILL HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SO NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED...BUT BITTERLY COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOWS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FIRST CLIPPER DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND CLIPPER WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST MONDAY...AS A THIRD CLIPPER
TAKES A NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO PUT DOWN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW... PERHAPS EVEN MORE
CONSIDERING THE FLUFF FACTOR...OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO OR WHERE SNOWFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. THE OTHER TWO WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE...IF
ANY...SNOWFALL ASIDE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WESTERN
STATES AS A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE START... NEARLY 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND GRADUALLY MODERATE TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALBANY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. WE MOSTLY WENT WITH GMOS GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE GRIDS
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A VERY COLD DAY IS ON TAP WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. LAKE AND TERRAIN EFFECT CLOUDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS WITH SOME TERRAIN
ENHANCED CLOUDS AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRE HILLS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES SHOULD ENJOY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT ALBANY BUT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE LOW IN THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10000 FT BY
EVENING AND TO AROUND 5000 FT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR SOUTH OF
ALBANY WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY MAKE ITS WAY
AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY BY DAYBREAK AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND THEN HEADS OUT TO SEA.

OUTLOOK....
THU...MVFR/IFR...CIG -SN...MAINLY S OF KALB.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY NY:

FOR TODAY 1/14...
RECORD LOW: -24 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: ZERO DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -7.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1914

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
RECORD LOW: -20 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: -7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -13.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
RECORD LOW: -16 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 2 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -6 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994

FOR SATURDAY 1/17...
RECORD LOW: -23 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1982
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -4.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971

THE LAST TIME...

...THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY NY WAS LESS THAN -10 DEGREES...WAS
BACK ON JANUARY 28 2005 WHEN THE LOW REACHED -16 DEGREES.

...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS ONLY ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 14 2004.

...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4 1981 WHEN THE HIGH ONLY REACHED -2 DEGREES.

...THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 28 2005...WITH A MEAN OF -2 DEGREES (HIGH 12 AND LOW -16).

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     033-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 140949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ARCTIC AIRMASS POURING IN EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD
DAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. MODEL 850 MB AND
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR RANGING FROM ABOUT -16C ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO AROUND -23C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS REGION...SPINNING
UP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR
A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING DELMARVA BY
12Z/THURSDAY...THEN PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THIS SOUTHERLY
SHIFT IN TRACK MEANS LIGHTER QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL HAVE ONLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...NO NEED FOR A HEADLINE. THE STEADY
SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH
BELOW ZERO LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS -20 TO -30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALOFT THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW
WILL FORM NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN
HEAD SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS QUEBEC.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A
TOUGH TIME WITH AIR MASSES THAT GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...NEED 5+ MPH FOR ANY TYPE OF WIND
CHILL HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SO NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED...BUT BITTERLY COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOWS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FIRST CLIPPER DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND CLIPPER WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST MONDAY...AS A THIRD CLIPPER
TAKES A NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO PUT DOWN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW... PERHAPS EVEN MORE
CONSIDERING THE FLUFF FACTOR...OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO OR WHERE SNOWFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. THE OTHER TWO WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE...IF
ANY...SNOWFALL ASIDE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WESTERN
STATES AS A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE START... NEARLY 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND GRADUALLY MODERATE TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALBANY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. WE MOSTLY WENT WITH GMOS GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE GRIDS
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS EXCEPT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE A FUNNELING EFFECT...RESULTING
IN GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALBANY. THERE WILL BE LOTS OF
LOW STRATOCU DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VISBYS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENCOUNTERED DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WEST OF THE SPINE OF
THE TACONICS...GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND BERKSHIRES EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...UNDER A DECK OF HIGH AND MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE NORTH OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK....
TONITE/THU...MVFR/IFR...CIG -SN...MAINLY AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY NY:

FOR TODAY 1/14...
RECORD LOW: -24 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: ZERO DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -7.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1914

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
RECORD LOW: -20 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: -7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -13.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
RECORD LOW: -16 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 2 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -6 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994

FOR SATURDAY 1/17...
RECORD LOW: -23 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1982
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -4.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971

THE LAST TIME...

...THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY NY WAS LESS THAN -10 DEGREES...WAS
BACK ON JANUARY 28 2005 WHEN THE LOW REACHED -16 DEGREES.

...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS ONLY ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 14 2004.

...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4 1981 WHEN THE HIGH ONLY REACHED -2 DEGREES.

...THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 28 2005...WITH A MEAN OF -2 DEGREES (HIGH 12 AND LOW -16).

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     033-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KALY 140949
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
449 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD DAY ON TAP AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN TODAY. THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ARCTIC AIRMASS POURING IN EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD
DAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. MODEL 850 MB AND
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR RANGING FROM ABOUT -16C ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY TO AROUND -23C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS REGION...SPINNING
UP ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR
A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING DELMARVA BY
12Z/THURSDAY...THEN PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THIS SOUTHERLY
SHIFT IN TRACK MEANS LIGHTER QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED LIKELY POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WILL HAVE ONLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY...NO NEED FOR A HEADLINE. THE STEADY
SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH
BELOW ZERO LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS -20 TO -30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED.

AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALOFT THE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LOW
WILL FORM NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN
HEAD SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS QUEBEC.

HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THE GUIDANCE HAS A
TOUGH TIME WITH AIR MASSES THAT GREATLY DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL.

AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES...NEED 5+ MPH FOR ANY TYPE OF WIND
CHILL HEADLINES. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SO NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED...BUT BITTERLY COLD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR VORTEX WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOWS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION FOLLOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FIRST CLIPPER DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY
EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND CLIPPER WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE FLORIDA GULF COAST MONDAY...AS A THIRD CLIPPER
TAKES A NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO PUT DOWN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW... PERHAPS EVEN MORE
CONSIDERING THE FLUFF FACTOR...OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO OR WHERE SNOWFALL IS ENHANCED BY
THE TERRAIN. THE OTHER TWO WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE...IF
ANY...SNOWFALL ASIDE FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WESTERN
STATES AS A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE START... NEARLY 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND GRADUALLY MODERATE TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALBANY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE YESTERDAY
EVENING. WE MOSTLY WENT WITH GMOS GUIDANCE TO POPULATE THE GRIDS
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS EXCEPT DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL HAVE A FUNNELING EFFECT...RESULTING
IN GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT ALBANY. THERE WILL BE LOTS OF
LOW STRATOCU DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS AND VISBYS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENCOUNTERED DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ONTARIO...ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WEST OF THE SPINE OF
THE TACONICS...GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND BERKSHIRES EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...UNDER A DECK OF HIGH AND MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE NORTH OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH OF THE REGION. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
LATER TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK....
TONITE/THU...MVFR/IFR...CIG -SN...MAINLY AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY NY:

FOR TODAY 1/14...
RECORD LOW: -24 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: ZERO DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -7.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1914

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
RECORD LOW: -20 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: -7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -13.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1957

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
RECORD LOW: -16 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 2 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -6 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1994

FOR SATURDAY 1/17...
RECORD LOW: -23 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971
RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM: 7 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1982
RECORD LOW-MEAN TEMPERATURE: -4.5 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971

THE LAST TIME...

...THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY NY WAS LESS THAN -10 DEGREES...WAS
BACK ON JANUARY 28 2005 WHEN THE LOW REACHED -16 DEGREES.

...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS ONLY ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 14 2004.

...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 4 1981 WHEN THE HIGH ONLY REACHED -2 DEGREES.

...THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT ALBANY WAS BELOW ZERO DEGREES...WAS BACK
ON JANUARY 28 2005...WITH A MEAN OF -2 DEGREES (HIGH 12 AND LOW -16).

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-
     033-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK
CLIMATE...IAA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 140848
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS ARRIVED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING
ON MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL YIELD LOW WIND
CHILLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
SLOWLY MODERATING OVER THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY THRU 11 AM FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING VERY RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-
LEVEL DRYING HAS BROUGHT THE EXPECTED RAPID END TO SNOW
SHOWER/SQUALL ACTIVITY AND HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 3 AM. OTHERWISE...WE COULD HAVE SOME
BLACK ICE FORMATION ON AREA ROADWAYS OWING TO THE NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY FOLLOWED BY THE RAPID DROP UNDERWAY. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF ICY
ROADS POSSIBLE THRU THE MORNING COMMUTE.

HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAV TEMPERATURES TODAY. MET-MOS NUMBERS
LOOK CLOSER...BUT HIGHS IN VERMONT WILL LARGELY OCCUR AT 12Z AND
HAVE TRIED TO TIME WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THAT HOUR. COLD
ADVECTION DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO FORESEE
TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE ZERO AT KMSS OR KSLK. THINKING MID
SINGLE DIGITS FOR BTV/PBG. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 19
BELOW ACROSS VT /NOT QUITE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA/ BUT
DOWN TO 20 TO 29 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WHERE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WITH INSOLATION LARGELY INEFFECTIVE AS
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES FALL TO AROUND 500DM ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES BY 00Z THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR FOR AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT
WILL BE ABUNDANT MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH. KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 BELOW
FOR THE NE KINGDOM AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FEW READINGS TO 20
BELOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES RANGING 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS.

AS SFC LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...SFC WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ON THURSDAY
FALL INTO THE UPR 480DMS...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -28 TO -30C. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
BY 3-5F...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AREAS. NLY DRAINAGE FLOW OF ARCTIC
AIR THRU THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY KEEP KBTV TO A HIGH OF 0F FOR
THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES COULD SEE SOME LAKE CHAMPLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE
BURLINGTON SHORE SWD THRU SHELBURNE/CHARLOTTE AREAS. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SERN SHORE OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DUE TO THE LAKE EFFECT. SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WE MAY
NEED ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THURSDAY TO COVER
READINGS 15 TO 25 BELOW. DEFINITELY A FRIGID DAY ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL EARLY...BUT WITH
AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS TOWARD MORNING WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN NWLY FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
BE CRITICAL. IF THEY HOLD OFF A FEW HOURS...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
A BIT COLDER THAN FORECAST. RIGHT NOW THINKING 20 TO 30 BELOW FOR
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND NERN VT...AND GENERALLY 10 TO 20 BELOW
ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA MAY BACK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUFFICIENTLY TO
GET LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO NWD INTO ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES. ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM WAA
SNOWFALL WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM NRN NY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND N-CENTRAL VT ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AFTN. WE/LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
AND POSSIBLY NEAR 10F FOR THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...WRN RUTLAND
COUNTY...AND THE IMMEDIATE CT RIVER VALLEY IN WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE
LONG-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER DEPICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF
FOR MONDAY...TRACKING DUE NORTH FROM SOUTH OF CAPE COD INTO
S-CENTRAL MAINE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING
MODERATE SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WE HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THAT TREND YET...AS OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS
NO SUCH SYSTEM. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE SE OF THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WITH A TRACK
SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THAT WOULDN/T SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THE SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR NOW WITH LARGE SPREAD
IN AVAILABLE SOLNS.

THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE ONE OF SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXCEPTING THE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF...THINKING IS FOR 30-40
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN GENERAL WEAK-MODERATE WAA REGIME IN SOUTH
TO SW FLOW...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOWER TEENS
SATURDAY...THEN AROUND 20F ON SUNDAY...AND LOW/MID 20S FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THESE READINGS ARE STILL AT TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...BUT THE RELATIVE RISE IN TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS WED-FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...THRU 09Z THIS MORNING...ALL SITES WILL SEE
MVFR/IFR COND DO TO EITHER -SW FALLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH CD
FROPA OR VSBY REDUCTION DO TO STRONG NW WINDS CREATING BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UP TO 15-25KTS. OTHERWISE AFT
09Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLD
EXPECTED...AND WNW WINDS DECR DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY BECM
LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURS FOR ALL FORECAST SITES.

06Z THURSDAY HROUGH SUNDAY...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOWS WED
NIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...OCCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SHSN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW AND RECORD LOW-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THE CLIMATE STATIONS AROUND THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THURSDAY 1/15
AND FRIDAY 1/16:

FOR THURSDAY 1/15...
BURLINGTON......-30F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MONTPELIER......-33F (1957)....-11F (2004)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-32F (1957)....-7F  (2004)
MASSENA.........-44F (1957)....-18F (1957)
MT. MANSFIELD...-39F (1965)....-24F (2004)

FOR FRIDAY 1/16...
BURLINGTON......-20F (1920)....-6F  (1965)
MONTPELIER......-21F (1994)....-9F  (1994)
ST. JOHNSBURY...-28F (1957)....-1F  (1996)
MASSENA.........-31F (1984)....-9F  (1994)
MT. MANSFIELD...-32F (2004)....-19F (1994)

ALSO OF INTEREST...THE LAST TIME BURLINGTON HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF
ZERO OR LESS WAS NEARLY 4 YEARS AGO ON 21 JANUARY 2005...WHEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY -3F. WE PROBABLY HAVE BETTER THAN EVEN
CHANCES OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ZERO OR LESS ON THURSDAY AT THE
BURLINGTON INTL AIRPORT BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...WGH/JN
CLIMATE...BANACOS/CL

000
FXUS61 KALY 140558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WITHBRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD IN TODAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
FRIGID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TODAY/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THAT AREA AS WELL BY 1230 AM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT A POST FRONTAL SCENARIO OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPS. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL BE BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 10 ABOVE
ZERO...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 1100 AM WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED A LITTLE EARLY (WAS ORIGINALLY SET TO EXPIRE AT
MODNIGHT) SINCE ALL THE SYNOPTIC/COLD FRONT INDUCED WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE ADVISORY AREA.

UPSLOPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
LONGER...BUT VERY DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT AND DECREASE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A 310
TO 320 DEGREE ORIENTATION BEFORE FINALLY DISIPATING BY AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL UNDER -20C ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH IF AT ALL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND REMAINING NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO MOST OTHER
PLACES. WITH A STRONG ANTICYLONIC FLOW...WE EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH BONE DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...CLOUDS FROM A WEAK CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AND MIGHT PREVENT COMPLETE FREE FALL OF TEMPERATURES. EVEN
SO...VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WILL DIP BELOW
ZERO. IF THE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO ARRIVE...THEY WOULD FALL EVEN
MORE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS WEAK CLIPPER WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH
SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...FLUFF FACTOR COULD BE 25:1! STILL BELIEVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW COULD ACCUMULATE...LESSER OR NO AMOUNTS NORTH OF
ALBANY.

BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...WILL COME EVEN COLDER AIR...THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. 850 TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET TO -25C AT KALB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WENT THE COLDER MAV NOS FOR
FRIDAY. THEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER THUS FAR. OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW ZERO READINGS...WITH
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO OUR NORTH...SLATED TO DROP UNDER -20F!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHEAST...
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
PROVIDES LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.  ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DIPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THREATENING MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.  THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY HANGS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUES
ON TUE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT...EFFECTING
MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH TRENDS COLDER.  ALSO POP`D WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR REMAINING PARAMETERS FOR CONSISTENCY.  GMOS FILLED IN
WHERE HPC NUMBERS WERE UNAVAILABLE.  THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS
AS THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ONLY
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.  HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE MODERATE THE HIGHS INTO THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S RANGE BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW.  MONDAY`S SYSTEM
DRAGS DOWN MORE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
FOR WESTERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK. BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE
MOVING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. THE
ONLY TAF SITE THAT WILL BE AFFECTED WILL BE KALB WHICH HAS VCSH
AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30 KNOTS AT ALBANY DUE TO THE FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. ELSEWHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG.
ASIDE FROM THE SNOW SHOWERS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE
WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. A DECK OF HIGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 18Z TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK....
TONITE/THU...MVFR/IFR...CIG -SN...MAINLY AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3AM TO 11AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 140555
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1128 PM EST TUESDAY...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO DROP WWA FOR
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD AS ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW
SQUALLS ARE QUICKLY PUSHING EAST. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW...

QUICK UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT.
WIDELY ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME AND IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN
THE FEATURE IS THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION. FRONT
WEAKENED TREMENDOUSLY WHILE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
BUT HAS BLOSSOMED AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 4AM AND THEN SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE CREATE BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED BY MIDNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ANY SNOWMELT THAT DOES OCCUR COULD FREEZE QUICKLY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES AND COLDER AIR STREAMS IN. THUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS SURGE OF COLDEST AIR
LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND GIVEN SOME
GUSTY WINDS...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE 21 TO 29 BELOW RANGE
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
BETWEEN 4AM AND 10AM. WIND CHILLS OVER VERMONT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY. FLOW ALOFT TURNS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TRENDS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO NOW IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
EXPECTING ONLY CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
LOOKING AT HIGH ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLD NIGHT AS
-28C TO -30C AIR AT 850 MB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE LOTS
OF 10 TO 20 BELOW WITH 20 TO 30 BELOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
IN THE EVENT THERE ARE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE RUNNING 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC
EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES/SHSN WILL BE THE RULE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST AS PREDOMINANT AND DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT SHOWING A GENERAL RELOADING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SC CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
POLAR VORTEX SKIRTING NORTHERN AREAS DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG
WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG. LOW SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF BNDRY SHOULD
ALLOW ROBUST LK ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF LK
ONTARIO. WITH 850 HPA WSW OF 30-35 KT ADEQUATE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR ENE INTO DACKS/NERN NY/NRN VT...AND ALLOW
SCT/NUMEROUS SHSN/POSSIBLE SQUALLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN FAIRLY
ROBUST LL CONVERGENCE ALONG BNDRY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS BRIEFLY BY SATURDAY WITH COLD
AND MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL ADDL SHORTWAVES
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO BASE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING ADDL CHCS OF SHSN/LIGHT SNOWS BY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAVE BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS ENSEMBLE
RUNS SHOWING CORE OF ARCTIC AIR LIFTING OUT AND MODERATING THROUGH
THESE LATTER PERIODS...SO THAT DESPITE SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...
VALUES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS LOW AS THOSE EXPECTED DURING THE
WED-SAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...THRU 09Z THIS MORNING...ALL SITES WILL SEE
MVFR/IFR COND DO TO EITHER -SW FALLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH CD
FROPA OR VSBY REDUCTION DO TO STRONG NW WINDS CREATING BLOWING
SNOW CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UP TO 15-25KTS. OTHERWISE AFT
09Z...VFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY HIGH CLD
EXPECTED...AND WNW WINDS DECR DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY BECM
LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURS FOR ALL FORECAST SITES.

06Z THURSDAY HROUGH SUNDAY...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOWS WED
NIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...OCCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JN

000
FXUS61 KALY 140453
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1155 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT ON
BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT
OF FRIGID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THAT AREA AS WELL BY 1230 AM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT A POST FRONTAL SCENARIO OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPS. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL BE BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 10 ABOVE
ZERO...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 1100 AM WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED A LITTLE EARLY (WAS ORIGINALLY SET TO EXPIRE AT
MODNIGHT) SINCE ALL THE SYNOPTIC/COLD FRONT INDUCED WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE ADVISORY AREA.

UPSLOPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
LONGER...BUT VERY DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT AND DECREASE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A 310
TO 320 DEGREE ORIENTATION BEFORE FINALLY DISIPATING BY AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL UNDER -20C ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH IF AT ALL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND REMAINING NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO MOST OTHER
PLACES. WITH A STRONG ANTICYLONIC FLOW...WE EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH BONE DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...CLOUDS FROM A WEAK CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AND MIGHT PREVENT COMPLETE FREE FALL OF TEMPERATURES. EVEN
SO...VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WILL DIP BELOW
ZERO. IF THE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO ARRIVE...THEY WOULD FALL EVEN
MORE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS WEAK CLIPPER WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH
SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...FLUFF FACTOR COULD BE 25:1! STILL BELIEVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW COULD ACCUMULATE...LESSER OR NO AMOUNTS NORTH OF
ALBANY.

BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...WILL COME EVEN COLDER AIR...THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. 850 TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET TO -25C AT KALB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WENT THE COLDER MAV NOS FOR
FRIDAY. THEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER THUS FAR. OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW ZERO READINGS...WITH
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO OUR NORTH...SLATED TO DROP UNDER -20F!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHEAST...
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
PROVIDES LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.  ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DIPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THREATENING MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.  THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY HANGS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUES
ON TUE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT...EFFECTING
MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH TRENDS COLDER.  ALSO POP`D WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR REMAINING PARAMETERS FOR CONSISTENCY.  GMOS FILLED IN
WHERE HPC NUMBERS WERE UNAVAILABLE.  THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS
AS THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ONLY
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.  HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE MODERATE THE HIGHS INTO THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S RANGE BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW.  MONDAY`S SYSTEM
DRAGS DOWN MORE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING KSYR AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH KSYR
AROUND 700 PM. TIMING OF BOUNDARY WOULD HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH KGFL
AND KALB BY AROUND 04Z...AND KPOU AROUND 05Z. GOOD CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KALB AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KALB BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. PREFRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING KGFL...SO HAVE INCLUDED A FOUR HOUR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY 04Z. SNOW BAND NOT AS
INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST A TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH KPOU. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS.
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KALB.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15KTS...WITH GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KALB. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPOU
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (14/0000Z)...BUT THE STRONGER
WINDS AT KALB WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH BLOWING SNOW NO LONGER A PROBLEM. MID/HI CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK....
WED NITE/THU...MVFR/IFR...CIG -SN...MAINLY AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3AM TO 11AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 140453
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1155 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT ON
BRISK AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN
FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT
OF FRIGID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1130 PM...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THAT AREA AS WELL BY 1230 AM. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT A POST FRONTAL SCENARIO OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SHARPLY
FALLING TEMPS. LOWS BY SUNRISE WILL BE BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 10 ABOVE
ZERO...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CONTINUING FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH 1100 AM WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS CANCELLED A LITTLE EARLY (WAS ORIGINALLY SET TO EXPIRE AT
MODNIGHT) SINCE ALL THE SYNOPTIC/COLD FRONT INDUCED WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE ADVISORY AREA.

UPSLOPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE
LONGER...BUT VERY DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT AND DECREASE THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO A 310
TO 320 DEGREE ORIENTATION BEFORE FINALLY DISIPATING BY AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL UNDER -20C ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH IF AT ALL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND REMAINING NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO MOST OTHER
PLACES. WITH A STRONG ANTICYLONIC FLOW...WE EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH BONE DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...CLOUDS FROM A WEAK CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AND MIGHT PREVENT COMPLETE FREE FALL OF TEMPERATURES. EVEN
SO...VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WILL DIP BELOW
ZERO. IF THE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO ARRIVE...THEY WOULD FALL EVEN
MORE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS WEAK CLIPPER WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH
SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...FLUFF FACTOR COULD BE 25:1! STILL BELIEVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW COULD ACCUMULATE...LESSER OR NO AMOUNTS NORTH OF
ALBANY.

BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...WILL COME EVEN COLDER AIR...THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. 850 TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET TO -25C AT KALB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WENT THE COLDER MAV NOS FOR
FRIDAY. THEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER THUS FAR. OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW ZERO READINGS...WITH
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO OUR NORTH...SLATED TO DROP UNDER -20F!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHEAST...
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
PROVIDES LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.  ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DIPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THREATENING MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.  THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY HANGS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUES
ON TUE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT...EFFECTING
MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH TRENDS COLDER.  ALSO POP`D WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR REMAINING PARAMETERS FOR CONSISTENCY.  GMOS FILLED IN
WHERE HPC NUMBERS WERE UNAVAILABLE.  THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS
AS THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ONLY
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.  HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE MODERATE THE HIGHS INTO THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S RANGE BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW.  MONDAY`S SYSTEM
DRAGS DOWN MORE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING KSYR AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH KSYR
AROUND 700 PM. TIMING OF BOUNDARY WOULD HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH KGFL
AND KALB BY AROUND 04Z...AND KPOU AROUND 05Z. GOOD CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KALB AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KALB BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. PREFRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING KGFL...SO HAVE INCLUDED A FOUR HOUR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY 04Z. SNOW BAND NOT AS
INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST A TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH KPOU. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS.
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KALB.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15KTS...WITH GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KALB. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPOU
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (14/0000Z)...BUT THE STRONGER
WINDS AT KALB WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH BLOWING SNOW NO LONGER A PROBLEM. MID/HI CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK....
WED NITE/THU...MVFR/IFR...CIG -SN...MAINLY AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3AM TO 11AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ032-033-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK/HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 140429
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1129 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1128 PM EST TUESDAY...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO DROP WWA FOR
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD AS ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SNOW
SQUALLS ARE QUICKLY PUSHING EAST. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW...

QUICK UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT.
WIDELY ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME AND IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN
THE FEATURE IS THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION. FRONT
WEAKENED TREMENDOUSLY WHILE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
BUT HAS BLOSSOMED AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 4AM AND THEN SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE CREATE BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED BY MIDNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ANY SNOWMELT THAT DOES OCCUR COULD FREEZE QUICKLY ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES AND COLDER AIR STREAMS IN. THUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS SURGE OF COLDEST AIR
LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND GIVEN SOME
GUSTY WINDS...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE 21 TO 29 BELOW RANGE
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK
BETWEEN 4AM AND 10AM. WIND CHILLS OVER VERMONT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY. FLOW ALOFT TURNS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TRENDS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO NOW IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
EXPECTING ONLY CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
LOOKING AT HIGH ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLD NIGHT AS
-28C TO -30C AIR AT 850 MB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE LOTS
OF 10 TO 20 BELOW WITH 20 TO 30 BELOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
IN THE EVENT THERE ARE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE RUNNING 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC
EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES/SHSN WILL BE THE RULE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST AS PREDOMINANT AND DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT SHOWING A GENERAL RELOADING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SC CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
POLAR VORTEX SKIRTING NORTHERN AREAS DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG
WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG. LOW SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF BNDRY SHOULD
ALLOW ROBUST LK ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF LK
ONTARIO. WITH 850 HPA WSW OF 30-35 KT ADEQUATE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR ENE INTO DACKS/NERN NY/NRN VT...AND ALLOW
SCT/NUMEROUS SHSN/POSSIBLE SQUALLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN FAIRLY
ROBUST LL CONVERGENCE ALONG BNDRY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS BRIEFLY BY SATURDAY WITH COLD
AND MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL ADDL SHORTWAVES
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO BASE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING ADDL CHCS OF SHSN/LIGHT SNOWS BY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAVE BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS ENSEMBLE
RUNS SHOWING CORE OF ARCTIC AIR LIFTING OUT AND MODERATING THROUGH
THESE LATTER PERIODS...SO THAT DESPITE SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...
VALUES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS LOW AS THOSE EXPECTED DURING THE
WED-SAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THIS FRONT THAT WILL BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 05Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

00Z THURSDAY HROUGH SUNDAY...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOWS WED
NIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...OCCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003-
     004-006>008-010-012.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 140325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1025 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1019 PM EST TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO GOING FORECAST TO
ADJUST TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT. WIDELY ADVERTISED ARCTIC FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND IS AHEAD OF
SCHEDULE. MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE FEATURE IS THE LACK OF ANY
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION. FRONT WEAKENED TREMENDOUSLY WHILE
PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT HAS BLOSSOMED AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS TO CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
EASTWARD THROUGH ABOUT 4AM AND THEN SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT. SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL CONTINUE CREATE BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED BY
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY...ANY
SNOWMELT THAT DOES OCCUR COULD FREEZE QUICKLY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
AND COLDER AIR STREAMS IN. THUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BE VERY
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS SURGE OF COLDEST AIR LATER TONIGHT
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND GIVEN SOME GUSTY
WINDS...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE 21 TO 29 BELOW RANGE AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK BETWEEN
4AM AND 10AM. WIND CHILLS OVER VERMONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5
TO 15 BELOW RANGE BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY. FLOW ALOFT TURNS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TRENDS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO NOW IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
EXPECTING ONLY CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
LOOKING AT HIGH ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLD NIGHT AS
-28C TO -30C AIR AT 850 MB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE LOTS
OF 10 TO 20 BELOW WITH 20 TO 30 BELOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
IN THE EVENT THERE ARE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE RUNNING 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC
EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES/SHSN WILL BE THE RULE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST AS PREDOMINANT AND DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT SHOWING A GENERAL RELOADING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SC CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
POLAR VORTEX SKIRTING NORTHERN AREAS DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG
WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG. LOW SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF BNDRY SHOULD
ALLOW ROBUST LK ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF LK
ONTARIO. WITH 850 HPA WSW OF 30-35 KT ADEQUATE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR ENE INTO DACKS/NERN NY/NRN VT...AND ALLOW
SCT/NUMEROUS SHSN/POSSIBLE SQUALLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN FAIRLY
ROBUST LL CONVERGENCE ALONG BNDRY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS BRIEFLY BY SATURDAY WITH COLD
AND MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL ADDL SHORTWAVES
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO BASE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING ADDL CHCS OF SHSN/LIGHT SNOWS BY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAVE BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS ENSEMBLE
RUNS SHOWING CORE OF ARCTIC AIR LIFTING OUT AND MODERATING THROUGH
THESE LATTER PERIODS...SO THAT DESPITE SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...
VALUES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS LOW AS THOSE EXPECTED DURING THE
WED-SAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THIS FRONT THAT WILL BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 05Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

00Z THURSDAY HROUGH SUNDAY...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOWS WED
NIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...OCCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 140053
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...INITIAL AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SPREAD
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. MAIN ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO PROVINCE...BUT WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SNOW
RATES AND ANTICIPATE A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BETWEEN 10PM AND 2AM IN VERMONT. THIS
WILL HELP CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A GENERAL 1-3 INCH OR 2-4 INCH
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE
BLOWING SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SUGGESTS GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE AREA LOOKS REAL
GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...ANY SNOWMELT THAT DID OCCUR COULD FREEZE
QUICKLY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND COLDER AIR STREAMS IN. THUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS
SURGE OF COLDEST AIR LATER TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND GIVEN SOME GUSTY WINDS...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE 21
TO 29 BELOW RANGE AND WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA BETWEEN 4AM AND 10AM. WIND CHILLS OVER VERMONT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE BY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY. FLOW ALOFT TURNS QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TRENDS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA SO NOW IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY.
EXPECTING ONLY CLOUDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
LOOKING AT HIGH ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLD NIGHT AS
-28C TO -30C AIR AT 850 MB MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE LOTS
OF 10 TO 20 BELOW WITH 20 TO 30 BELOW IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
IN THE EVENT THERE ARE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL BE RUNNING 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST TUESDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC
EPISODES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES/SHSN WILL BE THE RULE DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST AS PREDOMINANT AND DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION.

MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT SHOWING A GENERAL RELOADING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SC CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
POLAR VORTEX SKIRTING NORTHERN AREAS DURING FRI/FRI NIGHT ALONG
WITH SECONDARY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSG. LOW SHEAR AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE WSW FLOW AHEAD OF BNDRY SHOULD
ALLOW ROBUST LK ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF LK
ONTARIO. WITH 850 HPA WSW OF 30-35 KT ADEQUATE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR ENE INTO DACKS/NERN NY/NRN VT...AND ALLOW
SCT/NUMEROUS SHSN/POSSIBLE SQUALLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD BY EARLY EVENING. THIS SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN FAIRLY
ROBUST LL CONVERGENCE ALONG BNDRY.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS BRIEFLY BY SATURDAY WITH COLD
AND MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL ADDL SHORTWAVES
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO BASE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING ADDL CHCS OF SHSN/LIGHT SNOWS BY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAVE BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS ENSEMBLE
RUNS SHOWING CORE OF ARCTIC AIR LIFTING OUT AND MODERATING THROUGH
THESE LATTER PERIODS...SO THAT DESPITE SEASONABLY COLD READINGS...
VALUES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS LOW AS THOSE EXPECTED DURING THE
WED-SAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS ALONG THIS FRONT THAT WILL BRIEFLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION BY 05Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

00Z THURSDAY HROUGH SUNDAY...WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...PREDOMINANT
VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH IN LIGHT SNOWS WED
NIGHT.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH OCCNL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN SCT SHSN...ESP MTNS
AND IN LEE OF LK ONTARIO.

SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR.

SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...OCCNL MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH/JMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 132346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.  THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
SNOW SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WHERE AT LEAST
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. BEHIND THIS FRONT...
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED IN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS OUR DACKS IS THE RESULT
OF VERY STEEP LEVEL LAPSE RATES...TRIGGERED BY AN IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT...AS WELL AS UPSLOPE. THIS
IS EVEN BEFORE LAKE ENHANCEMENT COMES INTO PLAY!

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...LOOKING TO REACH
THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AT OR A LITTLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND
SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWBURST WITH THIS FEATURE...EVEN
INTO THE VALLEY REGIONS. ANY ENHANCED SNOW WOULD ONLY LAST A FEW
MINUTES TO SAY HALF AN HOUR IN MOST PLACES...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. IN
FACT...EARLIER...THERE WAS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR
BUFFALO!

ANY LAKE EFFECT HOWEVER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE FLOW GOES TOO
ANTICYLONIC AND NORTHERLY AND WILL LIKELY BE SHUT OFF BY 12Z WED.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME MOISTURE MIGHT BRIEFLY GET TAPPED FROM LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...DOWN INTO THE GREENS...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT OUR
DACKS...WHERE AROUND HALF A FOOT COULD PILE UP AND BE BLOWN AROUND
QUITE A BIT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALREADY HOISTED TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO.

NEXT COMES THE COLD...THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS
FAR. UNTIL NOW...OUR AREA HAS GENERALLY BEEN SUBJECTED ONLY TO
GLANCING BLOWS OF ARCTIC AIR...AND THE WIND ALOFT REMAINED WSW.
HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
(+PNA)...OUR FLOW HAS BECOME STRONGLY NORTHWEST...TAPPING SOME OF
THE COLDEST AIR IN CANADA...AND HURLING IT RIGHT INTO THE "LOWER 48"
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUITE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...PLUNGING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXCEPT BELOW ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
THEN...WHEN YOU COMBINED THESE TEMPERATURES WITH THE WIND...WIND
CHILLS VALUES WILL DIP BELOW ZERO MOST PLACES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA...AND DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE ADIRONDACKS. WENT BELOW
ALL MACHINE GUIDANCE (AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES) WHICH LIKELY DOES
NOT HAVE COMPLETE HANDLE ON THE COLD SNAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL UNDER -20C ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH IF AT ALL ACROSS THE
REGION...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND REMAINING NEAR OR EVEN BELOW ZERO MOST OTHER
PLACES. WITH A STRONG ANTICYLONIC FLOW...WE EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
FLURRIES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH BONE DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT...CLOUDS FROM A WEAK CLIPPER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AND MIGHT PREVENT COMPLETE FREE FALL OF TEMPERATURES. EVEN
SO...VIRTUALLY ALL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...WILL DIP BELOW
ZERO. IF THE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO ARRIVE...THEY WOULD FALL EVEN
MORE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS WEAK CLIPPER WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY AND WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH
SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...FLUFF FACTOR COULD BE 25:1! STILL BELIEVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF NEW COULD ACCUMULATE...LESSER OR NO AMOUNTS NORTH OF
ALBANY.

BEHIND THIS CLIPPER...WILL COME EVEN COLDER AIR...THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. 850 TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET TO -25C AT KALB BY 12Z FRIDAY. WENT THE COLDER MAV NOS FOR
FRIDAY. THEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER THUS FAR. OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE BELOW ZERO READINGS...WITH
SHELTERED VALLEYS TO OUR NORTH...SLATED TO DROP UNDER -20F!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHEAST...
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ON SUNDAY.  THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
PROVIDES LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.  ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DIPS SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THREATENING MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.  THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY HANGS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUES
ON TUE...RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT...EFFECTING
MAINLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH TRENDS COLDER.  ALSO POP`D WITH HPC
GUIDANCE FOR REMAINING PARAMETERS FOR CONSISTENCY.  GMOS FILLED IN
WHERE HPC NUMBERS WERE UNAVAILABLE.  THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEGINS
AS THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ONLY
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.  HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE
COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE MODERATE THE HIGHS INTO THE MID TEENS TO
MID 20S RANGE BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL...THOUGH STILL WELL BELOW.  MONDAY`S SYSTEM
DRAGS DOWN MORE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING KSYR AND WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH KSYR
AROUND 700 PM. TIMING OF BOUNDARY WOULD HAVE IT MOVING THROUGH KGFL
AND KALB BY AROUND 04Z...AND KPOU AROUND 05Z. GOOD CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KALB AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS AT
KALB BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. PREFRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING KGFL...SO HAVE INCLUDED A FOUR HOUR TEMPO PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY 04Z. SNOW BAND NOT AS
INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST A TEMPO PERIOD FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH KPOU. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS.
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
KALB.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15KTS...WITH GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KALB. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPOU
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (14/0000Z)...BUT THE STRONGER
WINDS AT KALB WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH BLOWING SNOW NO LONGER A PROBLEM. MID/HI CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK....
WED NITE/THU...MVFR/IFR...CIG -SN...MAINLY AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR/MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY HYDROLOGY PROBLEMS THAT MAY OCCUR THIS WEEK WOULD BE
FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS WHERE FLOWING WATER WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE VERY
COLD AIR ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHERE
RIVERS AND LAKES HAVE FROZEN...THERE IS A GOOD LAYER OF RELATIVELY
FRESH SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE...WHICH WILL SERVE TO INSULATE FROM THE
COLD...AND SLOW THE THICKENING PROCESS. FREEZE-UP ACCUMULATION AND
JAMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS TO THE NORTH...WHERE
TEMPERATURE ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDEST. WATER LEVELS AT MANY GAGE
SITES ARE HIGHER DUE TO ICE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT COMES WILL COME
AS SNOW AND WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS...BUT WILL
INCREASE THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW PACK.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-
     033-042.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3AM TO 11AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NY032-033-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK/HWJIV