000
FXUS63 KBIS 152108
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DRIFTS EAST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
WESTERN BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. FURTHER EAST CLEAR SKIES AND TRAPPED COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR WILL COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. I EXPECT
SOME RELAPSE IN THE COLD DIRECTION...THEN SOME WARMING LATE
TONIGHT. THIS IS HOW I PAINTED MY GRIDS.

THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY WITH LITTLE OR
NO ACCUMULATION. THEN INTO THE WEEKEND THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE INTERMITTENT FLURRIES ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF
A SURFACE LOW DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM MANITOBA.

AS THE WARM WESTERN UPPER RIDGE PROGRESS EAST WE WILL ALSO ENJOY MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY OVERLY OPTIMISTIC AS WE
HAVE A DEEPER THAN NORMAL SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO
40S SOUTHWEST AND LOWS MAINLY 10 TO 20 ABOVE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF) BOTH INDICATE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PLUNGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS IMPULSE
WILL GO AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY AND THE GREAT
LAKES. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY OR MENTIONED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE LOW WITH PRECIP
CHANCES AND RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY BIG SNOW STORM EVENT
TO WORRY ABOUT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THEN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO HOVER AROUND THE
ZERO MARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RECOVERING TO 10 TO 20 ABOVE
THURSDAY...AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WAS OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AXIS OF THE
HIGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
CLEAR SKIES OVER/ALONG THIS AXIS. CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA TO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTH. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW. EXPECTING THESE WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND MILDER
PACIFIC AIR PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION. THE WESTERLY WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WERE CREATING MAINLY MVFR CLOUDS.
EXPECT AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT THEY WILL LOWER AND MAY
REACH IFR HEIGHTS BELOW 1000 FEET...BUT AS YET HAVE NOT MENTIONED
CEILINGS THAT LOW IN TAF FORECASTS.

THUS MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AND LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

RSL/JV

000
FXUS63 KFGF 152041
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
241 PM CST THU JAN 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...
OTHER THAN ONE MINOR SHORT WAVE TARGETING THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPS.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY SO WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

TONIGHT...TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER TODAY FROM THEIR MORNING
LOWS AROUND -35F. WITH LITTLE MIXING THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TO AID
IN THE RECOVERY. DUE TO THIS FACT WILL HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH LOOKS TO DRIFT DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BY 12Z FRI...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS FROM OUR WESTERN TO
OUR EASTERN FA BY FRI MORNING. THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS OVER WESTERN
ND NOW...BUT THEY MAY ONLY REACH THE WESTERN FA BY MORNING. SO WITH
LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS AGAIN...THE -30F OR LOWER TEMPS
COULD SETTLE OVER THE EAST TONIGHT. FOR THE VALLEY AND WEST...
TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...BUT THERE COULD
AGAIN BE SOME WIDE LOCAL VARIATIONS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PICKS
UP A BIT TOWARD FRI MORNING...BUT UPON COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES HAVE ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE AT
THIS POINT.

FRI-SAT...ON FRI THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE KDVL AREA IN THE
MORNING...WITH EITHER FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW BY AFTERNOON
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER
THE AREA IN THE WARM ADVECTION...BUT THIS TYPICALLY IS NOT IDEAL
FOR WINDS TO GET TOO HIGH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW COME ON FRI
NIGHT AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...AND THEN
MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST MN. AS THIS WEAK SFC LOW SWINGS THRU WINDS
WOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AGAIN. NOT LOOKING
FOR A LOT OF SNOW WITH THIS SHORT WAVE PASSAGE...BUT JUST A
DUSTING MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW LATE FRI NIGHT
AND EARLY SAT.

SUN...DID NOT LINGER ANY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES INTO SUNDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE WEAK PIECES OF
VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND IN THE SHARPER NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT
WILL SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

.LONG TERM [MON-THU]...
ECMWF/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN IN SHOWING
500 MB TROUGH MOVING EAST JUST A BIT TO ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO
MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  STEEP NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN SENDING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THRU ONTARIO AND INTO
PARTS OF MN/WI ALONG TIGHT 850 MB BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.  MOST OF ANY
PCPN POTENTIAL WILL STAY JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE FORECAST AREA
RESTS BETWEEN MILDER TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST.  WILL
MAINTAIN IDEA OF HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20S WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 30 OR 32 EAST OR WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE BETTER MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL OCCUR.
NEXT COLD FRONT AND SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES THRU WED NIGHT/THU.  HPC
TEMPS FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO CNTRL ND NR 12Z AND INTO THE VALLEY NR 18Z.  MVFR CIGS ASSOC
WITH THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT DVL REGION AFTER 15Z AND
VALLEY SITES LIKE GFK-FAR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z FRI.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY GENERALLY 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON/RIDDLE

000
FXUS63 KFGF 151750 AAB
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THE WIND CHILL HEADLINE TO EXPIRE AT NOON.
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH...THERE WILL NO DOUBT BE SOME
FLUCTUATION IN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE LOW ENOUGH WIND
SPEEDS TO ALLOW THE WIND CHILL HEADLINE TO END.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKC TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. NW
WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN SW THROUGH THE DAY AND REMAIN FROM 5
TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY QUIET
BUT COLD WEATHER OVER THE FA. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT
EITHER LIGHT WINDS OR WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 MPH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW
PACK OVER THE AREA THESE WEAK WINDS WILL MAKE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY TODAY THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. WILL WATCH HOW TEMPS
WARM THRU ABOUT THE NOON HOUR AND THEN ISSUE THE FORECAST UPDATE.
WIND CHILL WARNING IS SET TO EXPIRE AT THIS TIME AND WILL ALSO
DECIDE THEN ON WHAT TO DO WIND CHILL HEADLINE WISE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE AND THE CURRENT
COLD TEMPS...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FA AT THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH
CENTRAL ND INTO E SD. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE N PLAINS...BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF WAA
FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRETTY SIMILAR AND
THEREFORE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS REMAINING UP AS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH TEMPS FROM 20 TO 35 BELOW...WIND CHILLS ARE
WELL INTO WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING HAS
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 MPH WITH TEMPS RISING ENOUGH THAT WIND
CHILLS DROP OUT OF WARNING CRITERIA AT NOON. THUS...KEPT WIND CHILL
WARNING GOING UNTIL NOON. HOWEVER...THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WINDS TO SEE IF THEY DROP FAST ENOUGH AND ALSO IF
TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH SO THAT THE WIND CHILL WARNING CAN EXPIRE
ON TIME.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE WAA IS EXPECTED TO START
WARMING TEMPS ON THU NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA ON FRI.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE ZERO FOR HIGHS IN THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA ON FRI AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO NW MN BY 06Z SAT...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE N PLAINS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 151558 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE THIS MORNING...WITH VERY QUIET
BUT COLD WEATHER OVER THE FA. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT
EITHER LIGHT WINDS OR WIND SPEEDS BELOW 10 MPH. WITH THE DEEP SNOW
PACK OVER THE AREA THESE WEAK WINDS WILL MAKE THE DEGREE OF TEMP
RECOVERY TODAY THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. WILL WATCH HOW TEMPS
WARM THRU ABOUT THE NOON HOUR AND THEN ISSUE THE FORECAST UPDATE.
WIND CHILL WARNING IS SET TO EXPIRE AT THIS TIME AND WILL ALSO
DECIDE THEN ON WHAT TO DO WIND CHILL HEADLINE WISE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE AND THE CURRENT
COLD TEMPS...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FA AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKC TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. NW
WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN SW THROUGH THE DAY AND REMAIN FROM 5
TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH
CENTRAL ND INTO E SD. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE N PLAINS...BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF WAA
FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRETTY SIMILAR AND
THEREFORE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS REMAINING UP AS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH TEMPS FROM 20 TO 35 BELOW...WIND CHILLS ARE
WELL INTO WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING HAS
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 MPH WITH TEMPS RISING ENOUGH THAT WIND
CHILLS DROP OUT OF WARNING CRITERIA AT NOON. THUS...KEPT WIND CHILL
WARNING GOING UNTIL NOON. HOWEVER...THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WINDS TO SEE IF THEY DROP FAST ENOUGH AND ALSO IF
TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH SO THAT THE WIND CHILL WARNING CAN EXPIRE
ON TIME.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE WAA IS EXPECTED TO START
WARMING TEMPS ON THU NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA ON FRI.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE ZERO FOR HIGHS IN THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA ON FRI AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO NW MN BY 06Z SAT...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE N PLAINS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

GODON

000
FXUS63 KBIS 151040
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
440 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR NEAR RECORD COLD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE HIGH PLOWS SOUTHEASTWARD. ALOFT...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN AS THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WELCOME WARM UP FOR THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL 18Z (NOON) TODAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
BUT CONSISTENTLY AROUND 10 MPH WHICH WHEN MATCHED WITH
TEMPERATURES 25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ARE CAUSING WARNING CRITERIA
WIND CHILLS OF 50 BELOW TO 65 BELOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
NOON THE TEMPERATURES WARM AND THE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT MAKING THIS THE LAST OF A LONG STRING
OF VERY COLD DAYS. THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM
FRONT MOVES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURE PROBLEMS TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT AS WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST. THIS PUTS THE
TEMPERATURE TREND AND FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN QUESTION AND FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND CENTRAL...BUT MODIFIED WARMING TREND
WEST. THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
SHOW A LOW LEVEL LAYER ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
CONSEQUENTLY...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEST EARLY
TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL TREND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR FREEZING
PRECIP...BUT KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST...BUT WELL ABOVE THOSE OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST WHERE THERE IS THE
LEAST SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THAN AVERAGE BY LATE TUESDAY
AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SORTED OUT BY
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00
UTC GFS SOLUTION IN TERMS OF SLIGHTLY MORE PHASING BETWEEN NORTH AND
SOUTH BRANCHES OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...00 UTC GEFS MEMBERS
SUPPORT BOTH PHASED AND SPLIT SOLUTIONS. THE UNCERTAINTY AFFECTS THE
NORTH DAKOTA FORECAST BECAUSE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. WITH
SUCH LOW PREDICTABILITY...WILL USE A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
RELY HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY UNTIL ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
SHRINKS AND MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH
PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOGGY AREAS LIKE
WILLISTON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DO FORM...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013.

&&

$$

TSW/SCHECK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 151027
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
427 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH
CENTRAL ND INTO E SD. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE N PLAINS...BUT CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF WAA
FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRETTY SIMILAR AND
THEREFORE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS REMAINING UP AS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH TEMPS FROM 20 TO 35 BELOW...WIND CHILLS ARE
WELL INTO WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECAST THINKING HAS
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 MPH WITH TEMPS RISING ENOUGH THAT WIND
CHILLS DROP OUT OF WARNING CRITERIA AT NOON. THUS...KEPT WIND CHILL
WARNING GOING UNTIL NOON. HOWEVER...THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE WINDS TO SEE IF THEY DROP FAST ENOUGH AND ALSO IF
TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH SO THAT THE WIND CHILL WARNING CAN EXPIRE
ON TIME.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE WAA IS EXPECTED TO START
WARMING TEMPS ON THU NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA ON FRI.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE ZERO FOR HIGHS IN THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA ON FRI AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO NW MN BY 06Z SAT...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE N PLAINS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKC TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. NW
WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN SW THROUGH THE DAY AND REMAIN FROM 5
TO 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$
NG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 150920
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
254 AM CST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A VERY STRONG ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR NEAR RECORD COLD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE HIGH PLOWS SOUTHEASTWARD. ALOFT...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN FLOW PATTERN AS THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WELCOME WARMUP FOR THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT MAKING THIS THE LAST OF A LONG STRING
OF VERY COLD DAYS. THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURE PROBLEMS TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS THAT
AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE
WEST. THIS PUTS THE TEMPERATURE TREND AND FRIDAY MORNING LOWS IN
QUESTION AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND CENTRAL...BUT
MODIFIED WARMING TREND WEST. THE GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
WILLISTON AND DICKINSON SHOW A LOW LEVEL LAYER ABOVE FREEZING BY
12Z FRIDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW WEST EARLY TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL TREND THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THE TROUGH TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...ENDING ANY
CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP...BUT KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST...BUT WELL
ABOVE THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST
WHERE THERE IS THE LEAST SNOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THAN AVERAGE BY LATE TUESDAY
AS UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS SORTED OUT BY
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WHILE THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00
UTC GFS SOLUTION IN TERMS OF SLIGHTLY MORE PHASING BETWEEN NORTH AND
SOUTH BRANCHES OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH...00 UTC GEFS MEMBERS
SUPPORT BOTH PHASED AND SPLIT SOLUTIONS. THE UNCERTAINTY AFFECTS THE
NORTH DAKOTA FORECAST BECAUSE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES THAT MAY OR MAY
NOT EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. WITH
SUCH LOW PREDICTABILITY...WILL USE A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND
RELY HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY UNTIL ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
SHRINKS AND MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH
PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN ITS WAKE. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES IN FOGGY AREAS LIKE
WILLISTON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT DO FORM...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

TSW/SCHECK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 150215 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
815 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT
TEMPS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED DIURNAL TREND AND INCOMING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING -30S FOR MIN TEMPS. WINDS REMAINING AOA 5 MPH
WILL CONTINUE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...PRETTY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT. WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING DOWN AND MOST OF
THE FA KEEPING A SLIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT TO
KEEP WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS
COULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THU MORNING NEAR KDVL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. QUESTION IS JUST HOW COLD CAN IT
GET. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND AIRMASS VERY DRY BUT WITH HIGH TO OUR
WEST THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOME WIND THRU THURSDAY MORNING
ENOUGH THAT IT COULD PREVENT A COMPLETE FALL OFF IN TEMPS. BUT FOR
NOW CONSIDERING UPSTREAM LOWS IN SASK WHERE IN THE -30S UNDER HIGH
WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF -30S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BUT VARIATION COULD
BE A BIT MORE THAN USUAL FROM SHELTERED NO WIND SPOTS TO MORE
EXPOSED SITES. WITH NEW 5 MPH RULE FOR WIND CHILLS THIS WILL
FORCE ME TO CONTINUE TO CARRY WIND CHILL WARNINGS THRU 18Z THU.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LIMITED
MIXING BUT AIRMASS BY THEN BECOMING MORE STALE SO THINK MOST SITES
CAN REACH -10F OR A BIT HIGHER THURS AFTN. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DROPPING INTO
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM 500 MB SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE VALLEY FRI NIGHT WITH UPR
TROUGH HOLDING OVER NE MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THRU SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PCPN PSBL IN WARM ADV FRIDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN WITH UPPER TROUGH FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY..WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVER NRN MN. JUST HOW WARM TEMPS CAN GET IN THIS
PATTERN IS SUSPECT SO WILL NOT BUY INTO WARMER MAV MOS FOR FRI-SAT
PERIODS.

LONG TERM [SUN-WED]...
LARGE SCALE 500MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OVERALL THERE IS
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THIS
WARMING PATTERN. LOOKING AT 850MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE...ECMWF HAS +12C
AND THE 12Z GFS SHOWS +10C OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. NO DOUBT THIS
WILL BE A MUCH WARMER PATTERN...BUT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS
WARMTH WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. IN THESE SCENARIOS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TYPICALLY WARM
MORE. NEED TO GET A STRONGER WEST OR SW WIND TO MIX WARMER AIR DOWN
INTO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS ATTM.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS AROUND OR BELOW 32F. NO
MENTION OF PCPN THROUGHOUT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$
TG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 142224
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
424 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ARCTIC HIGH EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE 20 TO 30 BELOW FROM
STANLEY/MINOT/GARRISON TO RUGBY AND JAMESTOWN. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TO
THE JAMESTOWN AREA...AND WINDS WERE STILL AROUND 10 MPH. WILL KEEP
THE WIND CHILL WARNING GOING IN THIS AREA UNTIL 6 PM CST WHEN WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT. OTHERWISE HAVE DROPPED OTHER WIND CHILL WARNING
AND ADVISORY FARTHER WEST.

ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE HIGH AXIS THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 30 BELOW FOR
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST.

THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES THE STRONG H500 RIDGE FROM ALASKA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND PLUNGES INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW SYSTEM APPROACHES THE US
BORDER ON THURSDAY...OUR WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE ZERO IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND BY FRIDAY STRONGER
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO
THE AREA. THE PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR...HOW
STRONG THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE TO SCOUR OUT SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR -
ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH SNOW COVER OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH WARM
AIR RIDING OVER THE ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN WITH SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND FRIDAY IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MAY EVEN SEE RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES 35 TO 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...
MEDIUM/LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...TRANSITIONING FROM OUR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO A
MORE QUIET ONE. THE CULPRIT BEHIND THIS CHANGE IS THE WESTERN CONUS
UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING THE UPPER JET
STREAM/PRIMARY STORM TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THUS A PROLONGED
DRY PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOW LONG THIS
LASTS IS UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AND IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
ITS PREVIOUS VERSIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOWEVER.

IN ADDITION TO DRY CONDITIONS...A NICE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED...WELL ABOVE SEASONAL BY 10-15 DEGREES. AS USUAL THE
WARMEST AIR WILL RESIDE WEST WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AS YOU PROGRESS
EASTWARD. MORE SEASONAL AIR MAY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK APART.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ003>005-
011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

JV/NH

000
FXUS63 KFGF 142052
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
252 PM CST WED JAN 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM CENTRAL SASKETCHEWAN INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. QUESTION IS JUST HOW COLD CAN IT
GET. SKIES ARE CLEAR AND AIRMASS VERY DRY BUT WITH HIGH TO OUR
WEST THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOME WIND THRU THURSDAY MORNING
ENOUGH THAT IT COULD PREVENT A COMPLETE FALL OFF IN TEMPS. BUT FOR
NOW CONSIDERING UPSTREAM LOWS IN SASK WHERE IN THE -30S UNDER HIGH
WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF -30S FOR LOWS TONIGHT...BUT VARIATION COULD
BE A BIT MORE THAN USUAL FROM SHELTERED NO WIND SPOTS TO MORE
EXPOSTED SITES. WITH NEW 5 MPH RULE FOR WIND CHILLS THIS WILL
FORCE ME TO CONTINUE TO CARRY WIND CHILL WARNINGS THRU 18Z THU.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LIMITED
MIXING BUT AIRMASS BY THEN BECOMING MORE STALE SO THINK MOST SITES
CAN REACH -10F OR A BIT HIGHER THURS AFTN. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DROPPING INTO
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM 500 MB SHORT WAVE/SFC LOW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE VALLEY FRI NIGHT WITH UPR
TROUGH HOLDING OVER NE MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THRU SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PCPN PSBL IN WARM ADV FRIDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AND THEN WITH UPPER TROUGH FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY..WITH
BETTER CHANCES OVER NRN MN. JUST HOW WARM TEMPS CAN GET IN THIS
PATTERN IS SUSPECT SO WILL NOT BUY INTO WARMER MAV MOS FOR FRI-SAT
PERIODS.

.LONG TERM [SUN-WED]...
LARGE SCALE 500MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. OVERALL THERE IS
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THIS
WARMING PATTERN. LOOKING AT 850MB TEMPS BY 00Z TUE...ECMWF HAS +12C
AND THE 12Z GFS SHOWS +10C OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. NO DOUBT THIS
WILL BE A MUCH WARMER PATTERN...BUT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS
WARMTH WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SFC. IN THESE SCENARIOS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TYPICALLY WARM
MORE. NEED TO GET A STRONGER WEST OR SW WIND TO MIX WARMER AIR DOWN
INTO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AND THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS ATTM.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD MAX TEMPS AROUND OR BELOW 32F. NO
MENTION OF PCPN THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT. WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING DOWN AND MOST OF THE FA KEEPING A
SLIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WOULD EXPECT TO KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS COULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY THU
MORNING NEAR KDVL.




.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$
RIDDLE/GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 141713
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1113 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SASKETCHEWAN WILL DROP INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE SFC HIGH
THRU THE DAY KEEPING TEMP RISES MINIMAL...BUT ENOUGH SUN TO WARM
UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS.
THIS WAS A BIT COOLER THAN PREV FCST AND WITH WINDS TODAY 10-15
MPH THRU LATE AFTN LOWEST WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW
40 BELOW ZERO IN THE FCST AREA THRU 00Z. MAY WELL HAVE TO CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING THRU THE NIGHT AS WELL AS WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT
GO CALM AS HIGH TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE SKIES SUNNY AND WENT ZERO SKY IN GRIDDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH
CENTRAL ND INTO CENTRAL SD. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THROUGH THE N PLAINS...BUT DO START TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
WAA FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRETTY SIMILAR
AND THEREFORE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY TO COLDER THAN 20 BELOW TONIGHT AS
CLOUD COVER HAS ERODED FROM N TO S. WITH MINIMAL MIXING AND CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TODAY...ANTICIPATE INSOLATION TO ONLY BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE AT BEST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING TO THE W OF THE AREA TODAY INTO THU...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS
50 BELOW AT TIMES. THUS...WILL NEED TO KEEP WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH TODAY...WITH EXTENSIONS EXPECTED BY LATER
SHIFTS FOR TONIGHT INTO THU.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING S AND E OF THE AREA BY FRI
MORNING...AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH HOW
QUICKLY THE WAA WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA IS
UNCERTAIN...THE WAA STRENGTH WILL START TEMP WARMING ON THU NIGHT
AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON FRI.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE ZERO FOR HIGHS IN THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA ON FRI AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES. CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH SAT. THE N PLAINS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

AVIATION...
SKC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NW-N
AROUND 10 KTS. NO VSBY REDUCTIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$
RIDDLE/NG

000
FXUS63 KFGF 141038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
438 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH
CENTRAL ND INTO CENTRAL SD. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THROUGH THE N PLAINS...BUT DO START TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
WAA FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRETTY SIMILAR
AND THEREFORE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY TO COLDER THAN 20 BELOW TONIGHT AS
CLOUD COVER HAS ERODED FROM N TO S. WITH MINIMAL MIXING AND CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TODAY...ANTICIPATE INSOLATION TO ONLY BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE AT BEST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING TO THE W OF THE AREA TODAY INTO THU...THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS
50 BELOW AT TIMES. THUS...WILL NEED TO KEEP WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH TODAY...WITH EXTENSIONS EXPECTED BY LATER
SHIFTS FOR TONIGHT INTO THU.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS SHIFTING S AND E OF THE AREA BY FRI
MORNING...AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. ALTHOUGH HOW
QUICKLY THE WAA WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA IS
UNCERTAIN...THE WAA STRENGTH WILL START TEMP WARMING ON THU NIGHT
AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON FRI.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE ZERO FOR HIGHS IN THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA ON FRI AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES. CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH SAT. THE N PLAINS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NW-N
AROUND 10 KTS. NO VSBY REDUCTIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ038-039-
     049-052-053.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-054.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ003-024-
     027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-
     013>017-022-023.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023.

&&

$$
NG

000
FXUS63 KBIS 140927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

MODELS/ENSEMBLES NOW AGREE THAT THE STRONG POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICAN PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN AS THE WEST COAST MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE MEANS A WARMER AND MORE QUIESCENT FLOW
REGIME FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS DESCRIBED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WIND CHILL ADVISORY WEST THROUGH NOON...AND CENTRAL THROUGH 6 PM
CST TODAY. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS 10 MPH AND HIGHER WILL
KEEP THE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 BELOW IN THE WEST THIS
MORNING AND CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MEETING WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY PAST 6 PM CST AS
THE WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 MPH MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE
CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AND THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLURRIES
FROM WILLISTON AND BISMARCK. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN
OVER THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE MUCH
IF ANY RECOVERY TODAY...WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH MID MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL LIMIT EFFECT OF DAYTIME HEATING. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE THU MORNING LOWS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A TROUGH/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. APPEARS TO BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY MEASURABLE PRECIP...BUT WILL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TO FORECAST DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE COLD SURFACE AIR. CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD BRING RISING TEMPS TO THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING...SPREADING
TO CENTRAL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL RUN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS NOW IMPROVED AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS/ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE
SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE ALOFT.
BY TUESDAY...THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND 00 UTC GEFS MEMBERS PUSH THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE SNOW COVER...EXPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEGINNING
SUNDAY FOR PLACES ALONG A LINE FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT AND WEST.

THERE ARE TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES WITH A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT GUIDANCE PUSHES TOWARD THE WEST COAST FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC ON TUESDAY. THIS IS RELEVANT TO THE DAKOTAS BECAUSE OF
DOWNSTREAM MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT MAY OR MAY NOT EJECT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH
SHORTWAVES IS ALWAYS LOW AT LONG TIME RANGES...SO WILL RELY ON A
MEAN OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY TO SMOOTH OUT LIKELY
ERRORS WITH EACH SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COUPLE OF LINGERING SNOW BANDS ORIENTED NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST HAVE FORMED FROM WILLISTON TO DICKINSON THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTH DAKOTA TODAY HAS PUSHED INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM SASKATCHEWAN...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

TSW/SCHECK

000
FXUS63 KFGF 140221 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
821 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGE WILL BE HEADLINES. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
HAS COME TO AN END...AND REPORTS FROM WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA
INDICATE 1-3 INCHES FELL. WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE FOR
BLOWING SNOW...THUS WILL CANCEL WINTER WX ADVISORY. REMOVED POPS
AND MENTIONED INTERMITTENT FLURRIES ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR FROM THE NE TO SW
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS IN THIS CLEAR AIRMASS ARE AROUND
-20F. ANTICIPATE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE N FA BY
MORNING...WITH MIN TEMPS -20F TO-25F. ANTICIPATE CLEARING TO REACH
THE S FA LAST...AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A RESULT
(-10F TO -20F). THESE VALUES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...A FEW
DEGREES LOWER ACROSS THE N FA CONSIDERING CURRENT VALUES UPSTREAM.
SFC-925MB WINDS WILL TURN N AFTER MIDNIGHT...IN THE 7-12 MPH
RANGE. THIS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW -40F ACROSS
THE N FA (AFTER LOWERING MIN TEMPS A BIT) AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE N HALF OF THE FA...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ISSUE WIND CHILL WARNING THROUGH
NOON...AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED. FOR
THE S HALF OF THE FA...WILL GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED BEYOND WED AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO LOOK
AT THAT SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY REDUCED VSBY DUE TO
SNOW (ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KGFK TO KPKD) WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT THRU 12Z AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. FOR ALL AREAS
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS LATE AFTN/EVE WILL TURN NORTHERLY LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2009/

SHORT TERM... /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS FOR REMAINDER
OF SHORT TERM.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING BAND OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ND AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. UP TO THREE AND ONE HALF INCHES
HAD BEEN REPORTED BY NOON TODAY...FOR THE BISMARCK AREA. THE BAND
OF HEAVIER SNOW CONTINUES TO BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER
IT IS TAPPING INTO SW SARGENT COUNTY. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF
AROUND 30 TO 1 WERE REPORTED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND VALLEY CITY AREA. ALSO WINDS ARE STARTING TO EXCEED 10
MPH IN THE VALLEY AND PARTS OF MY SOUTHEAST.

DUE TO INCREASING WINDS IN THE VALLEY...WILL MOVE START TIME FOR
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO 4 PM FOR THE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. NO CHANGES FOR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...HOWEVER
DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN 3 OR 4 INCHES MAX OF NEW SNOW IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS WAS USING A 20 TO 1 RATIO...A BIT LESS THAN
WHAT BIS AREA OBSERVED IN THE AREA OF GREATER FORCING AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.

18Z NAM SHOWS BAND OF WEAK H850 TO H700 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
EAST OF THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH. THIS LINES UP WITH
AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF SNOW...AND SNOW CONTINUES BACK TOWARD THE
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY
00Z. THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH
EAST AS WELL...JUST CLIPPING MY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THUS ADVISORY
REMAINS GOOD HOWEVER I FURTHER CUT POPS EAST OF THE ADVISED AREA.
EXPECT FLURRIES UP TO ONE...POSSIBLY TWO...INCHES OF SNOW OUTSIDE
OF ADVISORY AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY TONIGHT...AND SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH...OR 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...UPPED START TIME FOR VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.
WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA OF NEG 40 COULD BE REACHED BY 3 AM IN
PARTS OF THE NORTH. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR WINDS AND
TEMPS TONIGHT AND ISSUE IF NECESSARY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW...BUT AGAIN
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR AND MAKE THE CALL ON AM PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH AN EXTREMELY...DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
THEN DOMINATES WED THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS
MOSTLY LIKELY NOT GETTING ABOVE ZERO UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD...INTO THE MID NEG 30S
AGAIN TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL TRAVELERS SHOULD
BE ADVISED TO TAKE A WINTER WEATHER KIT AS THESE CONDS CAN BE LIFE
THREATENING IF NOT PROPERLY DRESSED.

LONG TERM... /SAT THROUGH TUE/
BIG ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE DEGREE OF WARMUP.  ALL MODELS
SIMILAR IN PATTERN IN TAKING POLAR LOW AND VERY COLD AIRMASS
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES. WARMING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND ALBERTA
ESP IN CHINOOK AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE IS BETTER.  HOWEVER...HOW FAR
EAST THIS WARMER AIR MAKES IT REMAINS IN DOUBT AS SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH IN
NW ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA KEEPING MAIN WARM AIR JUST WEST OF THE AREA
WITH RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.  TEMPS WILL MODERATE AND WILL
STILL PLAY WITH IDEA OF SOME 20S SUN-TUE PERIODS FOR HIGHS. NOW LOWS
WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH MILDER AS CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT AS A UPPER WAVE DROPS SOUTH INTO MN SPREADING
SOME FLURRIES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-
     052-053.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-054.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ003-024-
     027>032-040.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022-023.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001-
     002-004>009-013>017-022-023.

&&

$$
TG