[top]
000
FXUS66 KEKA 151840 AAA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1040 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MENDOCINO COUNTY. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY`S VALUES IN INLAND MENDO COUNTY...WITH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST DUE TO PATCHES OF
STRATUS. KL
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINS
AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS AND COLD VALLEY NIGHTTIME TEMPS.
AREA OF STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN SITTING OFFSHORE CAPE MENDOCINO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED TOWARDS THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THE 02Z
QUICKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED NW FLOW AT AROUND 5KT
SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH CALM WINDS TO LIGHT NE TO THE NORTH. WITH
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST SHOWING WINDS EITHER CALM
OR NORTHERLY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO AT
LEAST THE IMMEDIATE MENDO COAST SOMETIME TODAY. WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...OR RECEDE JUST OFFSHORE. WHEN STRATUS
WILL REACH NORTH OF THE CAPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE TRICKY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO VEER MORE SE THAN E BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE STRATUS NORTH OF THE CAPE SOMETIME
ON FRIDAY. AN EARLIER WEAKENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW OR WIND SHIFT
WILL MEAN AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE
CAPE...POSSIBLY EVEN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALM
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST
AS CONFIDENCE IS GROWING OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
SHUNTED SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST THAT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
INTERMODEL AND RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY REMAIN HIGH SO DETAILS
REGARDING POSSIBLE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS ARE AMBIGUOUS AT
BEST...BUT WILL NUDGE POPS UP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY BY WEDNESDAY.
BURGER
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FOR THE UPCOMING TAFS BECAUSE IF THE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST BECOME CALM OR ONSHORE...THEN THE STRATUS WILL MOVE
OVER THE COAST AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES STAY OFFSHORE...MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HAZE ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MS
&&
.MARINE...THE RIDGE THAT HAS SAT OVER THE WEST COAST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR ONE MORE DAY. IN
FACT...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2-3 FT TODAY...WHICH IS
INCREDIBLY LOW FOR JANUARY. SOME OF THE BUOYS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MIXED SWELL. BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT MISLEADING BECAUSE THE PRIMARY
SWELL IS A LONG PERIOD FROM THE WEST NEAR 3 FT AND THE SECONDARY
SWELL IS A SHORT PERIOD FROM THE NORTH NEAR 1-2 FT. BOTH SWELLS ARE
SUBSIDING. THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HAS GENERATED A WEST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL START OFF NEAR 2 FT AT 20
SECONDS AND BUILD TO NEAR 10 FT AT 16 SECONDS FRIDAY EVENING. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT HEIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE PERIOD WILL
DECREASE BY 2-3 SECONDS BY MONDAY. MS
&&
.CLIMATE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SELECTED RECORD AND FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY ARE BELOW.
SITE JAN 15 JAN 16
FORECAST/RECORD FORECAST/RECORD
CRESCENT CITY........66/66 64/73
ORICK................62/64 59/64
KLAMATH..............62/68 58/72
EUREKA...............64/64 62/70
WEAVERVILLE..........58/61 56/63
HOOPA ...............59/66 56/67
WILLITS..............64/65 68/67
UKIAH................71/75 74/75
FORT BRAGG...........62/63 62/68
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
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000
FXUS65 KREV 151835
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1035 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.UPDATE...
LET DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FOG HAS BEEN DISSIPATING THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 FROM LOVELOCK TO WINNEMUCCA
CAN EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TO AS LOW AS 1 MILE THROUGH NOON. AREAS FROM PYRAMID LAKE...NORTH
TO GERLACH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE PATCHY FOG THROUGH NOON.
OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN
WESTERN NV AND UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009/
UPDATE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE SINKS THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY. OBSERVATIONS AT FALLON AND LOVELOCK ARE REPORTING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. FOG HAS LIKELY DEVELOPED IN THE BLACK ROCK
AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS NEAR GERLACH...BASED ON HUMIDITY OF 100%
IN THE AREA. VISIBLE IMAGES AND WEB CAMS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
ALSO SHOWED LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THIS AREA.
THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR I-80
EAST OF FERNLEY...US-95 FROM FALLON NORTHWARD AND ALONG HIGHWAY
447 FROM I-80 NORTH TO GERLACH UNTIL 10AM.
ALSO PUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME NORTHEAST WIND AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THAT MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AS THIS MORNING.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT BY 515 AM. BRONG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG NEAR
LOVELOVK AND FALLON. CONDITIONS AT TRUCKEE HAVE DRIED TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 151759
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
955 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
UPDATED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY IN CLIMO...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PST THURSDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR DISTRICT THIS
MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS...
AND AN AREA OF SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE AIR MASS ALOFT CONTINUES REMARKABLY
WARM...WITH THE 12Z OAK SOUNDING INDICATING AN 850 MB TEMP OF 19C
(THE SAME AS YESTERDAY MORNING) AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF 13.1K FT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO BE OFFSHORE...WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SFO TO WMC GRADIENT HAVING ACTUALLY INCREASED A
COUPLE OF MB OVER THE PAST 24 HR. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH SOME
RECORDS ONCE AGAIN IN JEOPARDY. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO
MAKE SOME GENERALLY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
FOR TODAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IN THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING MARTIN LUTHER KING JR HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. IT WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM CONTINUING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE INDICATING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL LOOK AT THIS IN GREATER DETAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST THURSDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SPEED SHEAR FOR
AIRCRAFT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE OVER THE HILLS.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 15TH...
CITY: FORECAST RECORD YEAR OF
HIGH HIGH RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 68 70 1966
OAKLAND CITY 70 66 2000
OAKLAND AIRPORT 65 69 1966
SFO AIRPORT 69 69 1974
SF CITY 69 68 1966
SAN JOSE 73 70 2000
SAN RAFAEL 66 73 1966
SANTA ROSA 71 68 1967
GILROY 72 69 1967
KING CITY 82 89 1915
MONTEREY 73 74 1972
SALINAS 80 77 1972
SANTA CRUZ 74 75 1976
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: BLIER
CLIMO: MHS/BLIER
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 151752
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
950 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PST THURSDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR DISTRICT THIS
MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS...
AND AN AREA OF SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE AIR MASS ALOFT CONTINUES REMARKABLY
WARM...WITH THE 12Z OAK SOUNDING INDICATING AN 850 MB TEMP OF 19C
(THE SAME AS YESTERDAY MORNING) AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF 13.1K FT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO BE OFFSHORE...WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SFO TO WMC GRADIENT HAVING ACTUALLY INCREASED A
COUPLE OF MB OVER THE PAST 24 HR. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH SOME
RECORDS ONCE AGAIN IN JEOPARDY. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO
MAKE SOME GENERALLY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
FOR TODAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IN THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING MARTIN LUTHER KING JR HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. IT WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM CONTINUING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE INDICATING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL LOOK AT THIS IN GREATER DETAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST THURSDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SPEED SHEAR FOR
AIRCRAFT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE OVER THE HILLS.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 15TH...
CITY: FORECAST RECORD YEAR OF
HIGH HIGH RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 66 70 1966
OAKLAND CITY 69 66 2000
OAKLAND AIRPORT 69 1966
SFO AIRPORT 63 69 1974
SF CITY 67 68 1966
SAN JOSE 70 70 2000
SAN RAFAEL 62 73 1966
SANTA ROSA 69 68 1967
GILROY 69 1967
KING CITY 79 89 1915
MONTEREY 70 74 1972
SALINAS 76 77 1972
SANTA CRUZ 72 75 1976
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: BLIER
CLIMO: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 151734
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
920 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION (UPDATE)...
NEARLY 12 MB GRADIENT IN PLACE FROM SACRAMENTO TO RENO AND 8 MB FROM
MEDFORD TO REDDING AS 1038MB SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM KLAMATH
FALLS TO FALLON, NV. IT`S 12 DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING AT REDDING
THAN THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY...AND TEMPERATURES MAY REACH CLOSE TO
80 DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY. FOG IS HANGING TOUGH AT
STOCKTON AND MODESTO BUT MOST OTHER AREAS ARE CLEARING OUT. 60KT JET
BETWEEN THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND A TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. MINOR UPDATES TO THE
MORNING PACKAGE OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. SG
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUES AT 3:30 AM THURSDAY)...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPS OVER INTERIOR NORCAL AND
POSSIBLE RECORD/NEAR RECORD MAXES...MAINLY THE NRN SAC VLY AND
SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS OF THE INTERIOR VLY. AREA EVENING SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WITH VERY STEEP/STRONG
TEMP INVERSIONS FROM 2500-5000 FT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS...THE
CONTINUATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WX. FOG PRODUCT BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF FORMING STRATUS FROM MOD-SCK-SAC-MYV-TO NEAR OVE AT
1130Z. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...TYPICAL OF A WEAK NORTH
WIND FLOW OR SPLIT NORTH WIND FLOW PATTERN IN THE INTERIOR VLY. THIS
NORTH/DOWNSLOPE OR KATABATIC WIND WILL ALSO HAVE AN AMELIORATING
EFFECT ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY...HELPING TO PUSH SOME AREAS TOWARD
THEIR RECORD MAX TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION SEEMS TO BE IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF ERN SHASTA AND PLUMAS COS. CAA ELY WINDS BEGAN THERE
YESTERDAY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRI DUE
TO SYNOPTIC COOLING AND THE COLDER/DRY FLOW FROM NV.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE
TODAY...AND THEN INTO AND ACROSS THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH
IS FORECAST AS IT MOVES INLAND WHICH WILL LEAD TO SYNOPTIC COOLING
ON FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE STEEP/STRONG INVERSION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE STRONG THERMAL BELTS IN THE FOOTHILLS/MTN ELEVATIONS THRU
FRI AND INTO SAT...WITH THE THERMAL BELTS WEAKENING BY SUN AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR SINKING INTO THE
MTN VALLEYS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COLD MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS/VLYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN HEALTHY N
AND E GRADIENTS AND A DOWNSLOPE/KATABATIC WIND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG PRODUCTION TO MAINLY THOSE LOWER LYING
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE INTERIOR VLY. NAM 925 MBS WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND RH PROGS FORECAST THE WINDS TO VEER TO
THE S/SE FROM THE SAC AREA SWD INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VLY BY FRI
MORNING. THIS WOULD BE A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ADVECTING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITIES NWD AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG THEN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER MAX TEMPS
OVER THE SRN SAC/NRN SAN JOAQUIN VLY/DELTA AREAS ON FRI.
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE W COAST IS FORECAST TO CHANGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. THE
FORECAST PATTERN CHANGE WOULD RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPS...BUT WE
ARE RELUCTANT TO BITE DOWN HARD ON THE CHANCE OF PCPN. THE GENERAL
PATTERN IS FOR THE LONGER WAVE TROF TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE W
COAST AND RUNS INTO THE W SIDE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. THIS SPLITTING
ENERGY RESULTS IN A WIDE VARIETY OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT GET
QUITE MUDDLED BY DAY 7. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PCPN OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHAT WE ARE REASONABLY CERTAIN OF IS THE
TRANSITION FROM NELY FLOW TO S/SELY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN/MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE FOG AND STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP FURTHER NWD IN THE INTERIOR
VLY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN DRY THO...UNTIL THE LONGER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE W BY MID WEEK. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOCAL NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS TO 25-35KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF MVFR EXTENDS ALONG THE CENTRAL
FROM KOVE THROUGH KSAC TO KMOD AND SOUTHWARD WITH LOCAL LIFR/IFR IN
FOG. THE FOG WILL CLEAR BY 18-19Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HAZE
FROM KOVE SOUTHWARD. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY CLEAR OF FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 151718
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
915 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PST THURSDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS OUR DISTRICT THIS
MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS...
AND AN AREA OF SHALLOW MARINE STRATUS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE AIR MASS ALOFT CONTINUES REMARKABLY
WARM...WITH THE 12Z OAK SOUNDING INDICATING AN 850 MB TEMP OF 19C
(THE SAME AS YESTERDAY MORNING) AND A FREEZING LEVEL OF 13.1K FT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO BE OFFSHORE...WITH THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SFO TO WMC GRADIENT HAVING ACTUALLY INCREASED A
COUPLE OF MB OVER THE PAST 24 HR. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE YESTERDAY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH SOME
RECORDS ONCE AGAIN IN JEOPARDY. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO
MAKE SOME GENERALLY UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
FOR TODAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IN THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING MARTIN LUTHER KING JR HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. IT WILL
REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM CONTINUING
AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS.
IN THE LONGER RANGE...LATEST AVAILABLE RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE INDICATING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL LOOK AT THIS IN GREATER DETAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
DOMINATES THE WEST COAST WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS 12MB HIGHER THAN THAT ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THUS PROVIDING CONTINUED DRYING DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THIS MORNING AND CLEARING BY 17Z...OTHERWISE CAVU
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10KT THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY TO 25KT NEAR
PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY LOCALES. AERODROMES
HAVE VARIABLE WINDS FAVORING NE TO SE IN DIRECTION AT TIME. FOR KSFO
AND ENVIRONS...SE WINDS 3-8KTS FOR THE DAY AND TURNING NORTH
BRIEFLY AROUND 00Z. AGAIN...CAVU AT KSFO.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 15TH...
CITY: FORECAST RECORD YEAR OF
HIGH HIGH RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 66 70 1966
OAKLAND CITY 69 66 2000
OAKLAND AIRPORT 69 1966
SFO AIRPORT 63 69 1974
SF CITY 67 68 1966
SAN JOSE 70 70 2000
SAN RAFAEL 62 73 1966
SANTA ROSA 69 68 1967
GILROY 69 1967
KING CITY 79 89 1915
MONTEREY 70 74 1972
SALINAS 76 77 1972
SANTA CRUZ 72 75 1976
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: BLIER
CLIMO: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: C WALBRUN
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
[top]
000
FXUS66 KHNX 151714
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
914 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED DOWN THE CENTER OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...EXTENDING IN A NARROW
STRIP FROM MERCED SOUTH TO ABOUT HANFORD. AREAS MOST AFFECTED ARE
ALONG HIGHWAY 41 SOUTH OF FRESNO...HIGHWAY 43 AND HIGHWAY 198
FROM HANFORD TO VISALIA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 10
AM WITH MOST OF THE FOG CLEARING BY AROUND 11 AM.
THE STRONG RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE COAST NEAR EUREKA AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL PUSH WESTWARD FRIDAY TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD FORM A REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FALLING BELOW
5820 METERS BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR PERSISTENCE
TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW DEGREES COOLING FRIDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE MOVES INLAND. BY MONDAY...AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN DEEPENING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES ON HOW
THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND KEEP THE VALLEY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL 19Z THURSDAY WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG.
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF IFR IN FOG REDEVELOPING AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 15 2009... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND MERCED COUNTIES.
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...MV
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
[top]
000
FXUS66 KLOX 151709
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
915 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS
ARE A BIT STRONGER IN SOME AREAS THAN EXPECTED...WHICH KEPT THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP. WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR
TONIGHT AND FRI...AND WILL LIKELY ADD VALLEYS AND COASTS OF LA/VTU
CO TO THE CURRENT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MAY ALSO
NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF THE ADVISORIES INTO
SAT MORNING.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COMBO OF CONTINUED RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO APPEAR TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWERING THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT A DEGREE OR
TWO OF COOLING EACH DAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THE CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE WINDS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VTU/LAX
COUNTIES TODAY AND LIKELY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES STILL LOOK GOOD.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...MOVING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW. SO...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPS
ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE NOTICEABLY WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES IT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS UPPER LOW AND MOVES IT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD GIVE THE SAME FORECAST
TRENDS...RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN FACT...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE RETURN OF SOME COASTAL STRATUS/FOG
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...15/0945Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AT
KBUR...KVNY AND KOXR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KLAX...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
KBUR...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE
AFTER 10Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE/SURF...A LONG PERIOD WNW GROUND-SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SECONDARY WNW
SWELL AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. A PERSISTENT STORM
TRACK NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 30
FOOT SEAS THROUGH TODAY. THE SWELLS GENERATED TODAY WILL DECAY IN
ROUTE AND THE SMALLER AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 20 SECONDS
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND SURF ON WEST FACING BEACHES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH SETS TO 13 FEET
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...SURF WILL INCREASE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES LIKELY
RECEIVING SURF 4 TO 7 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 8 TO 10 FT IN VENTURA
THROUGH MONDAY. IF MODELS PERSIST WITH THIS PATTERN...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LARGE SURF AS WELL. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/KITTELL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
000
FXUS66 KSGX 151646
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
845 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS. HOWEVER...VERY DRY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN SUNNY...MILD DAYS...AND CLEAR
COOL NIGHTS. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. NEXT WEEK WILL TURN COOLER
WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN BY
MIDWEEK.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHARP RIDGE HOLDING ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE UNDERCUTTING IT OVER SOCAL. SKIES ARE CLEAR
AND MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO THE NE. REMOTE
GAGES IN THE WINDIEST SPOTS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME E WIND GUSTS IN
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE...OTHERWISE WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHT COOLING IN THE LOWER 5K FT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND A DROP OFF IN NE WINDS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM. SLIGHT DROPS IN 500 MB
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND CORRESPONDING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD
KEEP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY. BUT CONTINUED VERY DRY AND
MILD INTO THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES UNABATED. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD
OVER SOCAL AS THE ANOMALOUS UPPER HIGH BUILDS N INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY WARMING CONTRIBUTION FROM SUBSIDENCE
IN CHECK. STILL WITH THE VERY LOW RH AND A CLEAR SKY...LARGE TEMP
RANGES WITH MILD DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS SHOULD BE THE RULE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILDFIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS DUE TO THE VERY LOW RH...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THRESHOLD LEVELS FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS SOME JET ENERGY FINALLY UNDERCUTTING THE
UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO RAIN
POSSIBILITIES AS EARLY AS NEXT WED. ONCE 12Z MODEL DATA IS FULLY
ANALYZED...EXPECT LATER FORECASTS TO REFLECT SOME CHANCE OF RAIN BY
MIDWEEK.
***************************************************************
THURSDAY MORNING THE NWS IN SAN DIEGO WILL DEBUT THE "DAILY WEATHER
STORY". IT IS VIEWABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO) BY
CLICKING ON THE "DAILY WEATHER STORY" ICON NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.
***************************************************************
&&
.AVIATION...
15/1615 UTC...NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW FL130 HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-25
KT AND EXPECTED TO DROP TO 10-20 KT BY 2100 UTC AND VEER TO MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THESE WINDS IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BY LATEST MODELS. WITH THE DROP IN WIND
SPEEDS...TURBULENCE ACROSS AND IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE
LESS...ONLY OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. THE DROP IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
COUPLED WITH THE VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINING OVER THE INLAND AREAS
WILL ALLOW MUCH STRONGER NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP...EVIDENCE
OF SUCH SHOWN IN THIS MORNINGS LOW LEVEL SOUNDING OUT OF
THERMAL...31 DEGREES BETWEEN SURFACE AND FL010. SO SUDDEN JOLTS ON
THE SURFACE LIKELY FOR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
DEPARTURES/ARRIVALS. ALSO THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...MOSTLY BELOW
FL002...WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING INROADS DURING THE AFTERNOONS ONLY TO
BE PUSHED BACK TO SEA OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS...SHOULD LINGER NEAR THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN...ABOUT 200 FEET EVERY 24 HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
CEILINGS FROM STRATUS OR LOW VISIBILITY FROM FOG DURING NEXT 72
HOURS BUT SLANT VISIBILITY IN HAZE IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE IS LIKELY
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING TO 2-3 MILES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD 22 SECOND WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY BUT THE SWELL WILL BE IN THE 1-2 FEET RANGE THEN. THE
SWELL SHOULD BUILD RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING TO 5 FEET
AND CONTINUE TO BUILD AND FILL IN THROUGH SUNDAY TO AROUND 7 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 16 SECONDS...TEMPORARILY DIMINISH TO AROUND 6 FEET
MONDAY. LATEST WAMIII MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A REINFORCING SWELL
AROUND 8 FEET ARRIVING ON TUESDAY BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME 1 TO 2
FOOT VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. WILL FURTHER EVALUATE WHEN THE
15/1200 UTC RUN ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING. EITHER WAY SURF HEIGHTS
ON EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES LIKELY TO BE RUNNING +8 FEET BY
SATURDAY. PLAN TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TO BE IN
EFFECT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR
[top]
000
FXUS65 KPSR 151631
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
930 AM MST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY...AS WELL AS CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...
MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND
BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG AND RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS PARKED ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...KEEPING THE
AIRMASS OVER ARIZONA DRY AND STABLE. PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY
LOW...GENLY AOB A TENTH OF AN INCH PER THE MORNING TUS/FLG RAOBS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 8 AM MOSTLY RANGED FROM THE MID 20 TO MID 30S
OVER THE LOWER DESERTS...DOWN TO THE UPPER TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS
CHANGED MORE TO A WESTERLY FLOW...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS
DROPPED DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVED INTO SRN UT/NRN
AZ. IT IS A VERY DRY AND RATHER WEAK WLY FLOW...AS THE UPPER LOW IS
A VERY WEAK FEATURE...NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO
THE STATE ANYTIME SOON IF AT ALL. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY LOOKS GOOD...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE. NO UPDATES NEEDED. REST OF DISCUSSION IS FROM THE PREVIOUS
MID SHIFT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND 2 TO
5 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING YUMA AND THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY NORTH NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO
WASHINGTON STATE THIS WEEKEND...SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER IDAHO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AND A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 KTS AT KBLH
AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
MORE PERSISTENT TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF WESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z IN THE FOOTHILLS
EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB/ELLIS
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KREV 151252
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
452 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.UPDATE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE SINKS THIS MORNING
THAN YESTERDAY. OBSERVATIONS AT FALLON AND LOVELOCK ARE REPORTING
1/4 MILE VISIBILITY. FOG HAS LIKELY DEVELOPED IN THE BLACK ROCK
AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS NEAR GERLACH...BASED ON HUMIDITY OF 100%
IN THE AREA. VISIBLE IMAGES AND WEB CAMS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
ALSO SHOWED LOW CLOUDS/FOG IN THIS AREA.
THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR I-80
EAST OF FERNLEY...US-95 FROM FALLON NORTHWARD AND ALONG HIGHWAY
447 FROM I-80 NORTH TO GERLACH UNTIL 10AM.
ALSO PUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DO SHOW SOME NORTHEAST WIND AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THAT MAY PREVENT THE FOG FROM BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AS THIS MORNING.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT BY 515 AM. BRONG
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG NEAR
LOVELOVK AND FALLON. CONDITIONS AT TRUCKEE HAVE DRIED TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NVZ004-005 UNTIL 10AM.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 151240
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SAME OLD STORY IN THE SHORT
TERM AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.
CURRENTLY...WINDIEST SPOTS ARE IN THE VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS. WITH SOME
STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED THIS MORNING BY THE MODELS...WILL
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
JUSTIFYING THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE STRONGEST
OFFSHORE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS AND COASTS OF VTU/LAX COUNTIES.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE COMBO OF CONTINUED RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS DO APPEAR TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...
WILL EXPECT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING EACH DAY...BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THE CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE WINDS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VTU/LAX
COUNTIES TODAY AND LIKELY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES STILL LOOK GOOD.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...MOVING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW. SO...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPS
ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE NOTICEABLY WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES IT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS UPPER LOW AND MOVES IT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD GIVE THE SAME FORECAST
TRENDS...RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN FACT...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE RETURN OF SOME COASTAL STRATUS/FOG
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...15/0945Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AT
KBUR...KVNY AND KOXR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KLAX...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
KBUR...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE
AFTER 10Z FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE/SURF...A LONG PERIOD WNW GROUND-SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SECONDARY WNW
SWELL AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. A PERSISTENT STORM
TRACK NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 30
FOOT SEAS THROUGH TODAY. THE SWELLS GENERATED TODAY WILL DECAY IN
ROUTE AND THE SMALLER AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 20 SECONDS
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND SURF ON WEST FACING BEACHES SHOULD RANGE
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH SETS TO 13 FEET
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...SURF WILL INCREASE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES LIKELY
RECEIVING SURF 4 TO 7 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 8 TO 10 FT IN VENTURA
THROUGH MONDAY. IF MODELS PERSIST WITH THIS PATTERN...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LARGE SURF AS WELL. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 151217
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
405 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPS OVER INTERIOR NORCAL AND
POSSIBLE RECORD/NEAR RECORD MAXES...MAINLY THE NRN SAC VLY AND
SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS OF THE INTERIOR VLY. AREA EVENING SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS WITH VERY STEEP/STRONG
TEMP INVERSIONS FROM 2500-5000 FT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THUS...THE
CONTINUATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WX. FOG PRODUCT BEGINNING TO
SHOW SIGNS OF FORMING STRATUS FROM MOD-SCK-SAC-MYV-TO NEAR OVE AT
1130Z. THIS IS IN THE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...TYPICAL OF A WEAK NORTH
WIND FLOW OR SPLIT NORTH WIND FLOW PATTERN IN THE INTERIOR VLY. THIS
NORTH/DOWNSLOPE OR KATABATIC WIND WILL ALSO HAVE AN AMELIORATING
EFFECT ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY...HELPING TO PUSH SOME AREAS TOWARD
THEIR RECORD MAX TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION SEEMS TO BE IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF ERN SHASTA AND PLUMAS COS. CAA ELY WINDS BEGAN THERE
YESTERDAY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRI DUE
TO SYNOPTIC COOLING AND THE COLDER/DRY FLOW FROM NV.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE
TODAY...AND THEN INTO AND ACROSS THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH
IS FORECAST AS IT MOVES INLAND WHICH WILL LEAD TO SYNOPTIC COOLING
ON FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE STEEP/STRONG INVERSION WILL ALSO
CONTINUE STRONG THERMAL BELTS IN THE FOOTHILLS/MTN ELEVATIONS THRU
FRI AND INTO SAT...WITH THE THERMAL BELTS WEAKENING BY SUN AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR SINKING INTO THE
MTN VALLEYS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COLD MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS/VLYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN HEALTHY N
AND E GRADIENTS AND A DOWNSLOPE/KATABATIC WIND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG PRODUCTION TO MAINLY THOSE LOWER LYING
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS IN THE INTERIOR VLY. NAM 925 MBS WINDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND RH PROGS FORECAST THE WINDS TO VEER TO
THE S/SE FROM THE SAC AREA SWD INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VLY BY FRI
MORNING. THIS WOULD BE A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR ADVECTING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITIES NWD AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG THEN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER MAX TEMPS
OVER THE SRN SAC/NRN SAN JOAQUIN VLY/DELTA AREAS ON FRI.
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE W COAST IS FORECAST TO CHANGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. THE
FORECAST PATTERN CHANGE WOULD RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPS...BUT WE
ARE RELUCTANT TO BITE DOWN HARD ON THE CHANCE OF PCPN. THE GENERAL
PATTERN IS FOR THE LONGER WAVE TROF TO SPLIT AS IT APPROACHES THE W
COAST AND RUNS INTO THE W SIDE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. THIS SPLITTING
ENERGY RESULTS IN A WIDE VARIETY OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT GET
QUITE MUDDLED BY DAY 7. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF PCPN OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHAT WE ARE REASONABLY CERTAIN OF IS THE
TRANSITION FROM NELY FLOW TO S/SELY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN/MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE FOG AND STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP FURTHER NWD IN THE INTERIOR
VLY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN DRY THO...UNTIL THE LONGER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE W BY MID WEEK. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. VFR CONDS DOMINATE VALLEY
FROM KCIC VCNTY NORTHWARD NEXT 24HRS. SOUTH OF KCIC...LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDS ALONG I-5 TO HWY 99 THRU 18Z...BCMG MORE WDSPRD 12-17Z BASED
ON CLIMO DATA. IFR/LIFR CONDS RETURN AGAIN AFT 16/09Z. GRADUAL INCRG
NE WIND VERTICALLY THRU ATMOSPHERE. NNE-ENE SFC WINDS OVER MTNS WITH
G25-35KT...STRONGEST OVER SIERNEV EVENING THRU EARLY MORN. JMC
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 151202
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
402 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE COAST WHICH IS CLEARLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY.
TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH FOG IN
THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY IS INDC AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NW CA COAST...WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS
WILL HAVE TO BE UPDATED. THE GRADIENT PICTURE IS INDC A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT OF 2.4 MB BETWEEN ARCATA-SFO AND AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT OF
12.4 MB BETWEEN WMC-SFO.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE AIRMASS ALOFT COOLING A LITTLE.
EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE INDC A LITTLE COOLING AT 850 MB THEY DO
NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE AREA OF STRATUS OFF THE COAST. HAVE
BASICALLY COOLED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY...NEVERTHELESS THE
TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW RECORDS ONCE AGAIN IN
JEOPARDY. NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY VALLEYS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
OVER THE MARTIN LUTHER KING JR WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST AS THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. THE NORTH AND EAST BAY NIGHT/MORNING FOG WILL
CONTINUE.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A SPLITTING TROF
TO THE WEST COAST. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH BAY
WITH THE ENTIRE DISTRICT EXPERIENCING COOLER TEMPS...BASICALLY
COOLING TO SEASONABLE NORMS. THERE IS LITTLE CONTINUITY IN THE
DETAILS SO HAVE NOT COMPLETELY BOUGHT OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD
DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
DOMINATES THE WEST COAST WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS 12MB HIGHER THAN THAT ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THUS PROVIDING CONTINUED DRYING DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO BAY THIS MORNING AND CLEARING BY 17Z...OTHERWISE CAVU
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10KT THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY TO 25KT NEAR
PASSES AND CANYONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY LOCALES. AERODROMES
HAVE VARIABLE WINDS FAVORING NE TO SE IN DIRECTION AT TIME. FOR KSFO
AND ENVIRONS...SE WINDS 3-8KTS FOR THE DAY AND TURNING NORTH
BRIEFLY AROUND 00Z. AGAIN...CAVU AT KSFO.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 15TH...
CITY: FORECAST RECORD YEAR OF
HIGH HIGH RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 66 70 1966
OAKLAND CITY 69 66 2000
OAKLAND AIRPORT 69 1966
SFO AIRPORT 63 69 1974
SF CITY 67 68 1966
SAN JOSE 70 70 2000
SAN RAFAEL 62 73 1966
SANTA ROSA 69 68 1967
GILROY 69 1967
KING CITY 79 89 1915
MONTEREY 70 74 1972
SALINAS 76 77 1972
SANTA CRUZ 72 75 1976
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: MHS
CLIMO: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 151114 CCA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 AM MST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY...AS WELL AS CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...
MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND
BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND 2 TO
5 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING YUMA AND THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY NORTH NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO
WASHINGTON STATE THIS WEEKEND...SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER IDAHO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AND A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 KTS AT KBLH
AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
MORE PERSISTENT TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF WESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z IN THE FOOTHILLS
EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 151114 CCA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 AM MST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY...AS WELL AS CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...
MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND
BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND 2 TO
5 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING YUMA AND THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY NORTH NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO
WASHINGTON STATE THIS WEEKEND...SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER IDAHO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AND A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 KTS AT KBLH
AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
MORE PERSISTENT TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF WESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z IN THE FOOTHILLS
EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 151113
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 AM MST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY...AS WELL AS CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...
MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND
BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND 2 TO
5 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING YUMA AND THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY NORTH NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO
WASHINGTON STATE THIS WEEKEND...SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER IDAHO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AND A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 KTS AT KBLH
AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
MORE PERSISTENT TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF WESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z IN THE FOOTHILLS
EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 151113
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 AM MST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY...AS WELL AS CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...
MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND
BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND 2 TO
5 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING YUMA AND THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY
EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY NORTH NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO
WASHINGTON STATE THIS WEEKEND...SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER IDAHO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AND TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
BREEZINESS FRIDAY...AND BREEZY WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AND A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WEST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-15 KTS AT KBLH
AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT
MORE PERSISTENT TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF WESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX. LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z IN THE FOOTHILLS
EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EACH MORNING...AND ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KEKA 151105
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
305 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINS
AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS AND COLD VALLEY NIGHTTIME TEMPS.
AREA OF STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN SITTING OFFSHORE CAPE MENDOCINO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED TOWARDS THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THE 02Z
QUICKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED NW FLOW AT AROUND 5KT
SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH CALM WINDS TO LIGHT NE TO THE NORTH. WITH
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST SHOWING WINDS EITHER CALM
OR NORTHERLY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO AT
LEAST THE IMMEDIATE MENDO COAST SOMETIME TODAY. WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...OR RECEDE JUST OFFSHORE. WHEN STRATUS
WILL REACH NORTH OF THE CAPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE TRICKY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO VEER MORE SE THAN E BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE STRATUS NORTH OF THE CAPE SOMETIME
ON FRIDAY. AN EARLIER WEAKENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW OR WIND SHIFT
WILL MEAN AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE
CAPE...POSSIBLY EVEN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALM
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST
AS CONFIDENCE IS GROWING OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
SHUNTED SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST THAT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
INTERMODEL AND RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY REMAIN HIGH SO DETAILS
REGARDING POSSIBLE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS ARE AMBIGUOUS AT
BEST...BUT WILL NUDGE POPS UP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY BY WEDNESDAY.
BURGER
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FOR THE UPCOMING TAFS BECAUSE IF THE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST BECOME CALM OR ONSHORE...THEN THE STRATUS WILL MOVE
OVER THE COAST AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES STAY OFFSHORE...MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HAZE ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MS
&&
.MARINE...THE RIDGE THAT HAS SAT OVER THE WEST COAST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR ONE MORE DAY. IN
FACT...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2-3 FT TODAY...WHICH IS
INCREDIBLY LOW FOR JANUARY. SOME OF THE BUOYS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MIXED SWELL. BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT MISLEADING BECAUSE THE PRIMARY
SWELL IS A LONG PERIOD FROM THE WEST NEAR 3 FT AND THE SECONDARY
SWELL IS A SHORT PERIOD FROM THE NORTH NEAR 1-2 FT. BOTH SWELLS ARE
SUBSIDING. THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HAS GENERATED A WEST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL START OFF NEAR 2 FT AT 20
SECONDS AND BUILD TO NEAR 10 FT AT 16 SECONDS FRIDAY EVENING. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT HEIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE PERIOD WILL
DECREASE BY 2-3 SECONDS BY MONDAY. MS
&&
.CLIMATE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SELECTED RECORD AND FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY ARE BELOW.
SITE JAN 15 JAN 16
FORECAST/RECORD FORECAST/RECORD
CRESCENT CITY........66/66 64/73
ORICK................62/64 59/64
KLAMATH..............62/68 58/72
EUREKA...............64/64 62/70
WEAVERVILLE..........58/61 56/63
HOOPA ...............59/66 56/67
WILLITS..............72/65 68/67
UKIAH................77/75 74/75
FORT BRAGG...........66/63 62/68
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 151105
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
305 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF STRATUS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK REMAINS
AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS AND COLD VALLEY NIGHTTIME TEMPS.
AREA OF STRATUS THAT HAD BEEN SITTING OFFSHORE CAPE MENDOCINO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED TOWARDS THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THE 02Z
QUICKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED NW FLOW AT AROUND 5KT
SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH CALM WINDS TO LIGHT NE TO THE NORTH. WITH
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST SHOWING WINDS EITHER CALM
OR NORTHERLY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO AT
LEAST THE IMMEDIATE MENDO COAST SOMETIME TODAY. WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRATUS CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...OR RECEDE JUST OFFSHORE. WHEN STRATUS
WILL REACH NORTH OF THE CAPE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE TRICKY AS
OFFSHORE FLOW IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THROUGH
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO VEER MORE SE THAN E BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE STRATUS NORTH OF THE CAPE SOMETIME
ON FRIDAY. AN EARLIER WEAKENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW OR WIND SHIFT
WILL MEAN AN EARLIER RETURN OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE
CAPE...POSSIBLY EVEN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ALM
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST
AS CONFIDENCE IS GROWING OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
SHUNTED SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST THAT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
INTERMODEL AND RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY REMAIN HIGH SO DETAILS
REGARDING POSSIBLE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS ARE AMBIGUOUS AT
BEST...BUT WILL NUDGE POPS UP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY BY WEDNESDAY.
BURGER
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BE
WATCHED VERY CLOSELY FOR THE UPCOMING TAFS BECAUSE IF THE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST BECOME CALM OR ONSHORE...THEN THE STRATUS WILL MOVE
OVER THE COAST AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES STAY OFFSHORE...MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO HAZE ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MS
&&
.MARINE...THE RIDGE THAT HAS SAT OVER THE WEST COAST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE CALM FOR ONE MORE DAY. IN
FACT...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2-3 FT TODAY...WHICH IS
INCREDIBLY LOW FOR JANUARY. SOME OF THE BUOYS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MIXED SWELL. BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT MISLEADING BECAUSE THE PRIMARY
SWELL IS A LONG PERIOD FROM THE WEST NEAR 3 FT AND THE SECONDARY
SWELL IS A SHORT PERIOD FROM THE NORTH NEAR 1-2 FT. BOTH SWELLS ARE
SUBSIDING. THINGS WILL START TO CHANGE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HAS GENERATED A WEST SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. THE SWELL WILL START OFF NEAR 2 FT AT 20
SECONDS AND BUILD TO NEAR 10 FT AT 16 SECONDS FRIDAY EVENING. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT HEIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE PERIOD WILL
DECREASE BY 2-3 SECONDS BY MONDAY. MS
&&
.CLIMATE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SELECTED RECORD AND FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY ARE BELOW.
SITE JAN 15 JAN 16
FORECAST/RECORD FORECAST/RECORD
CRESCENT CITY........66/66 64/73
ORICK................62/64 59/64
KLAMATH..............62/68 58/72
EUREKA...............64/64 62/70
WEAVERVILLE..........58/61 56/63
HOOPA ...............59/66 56/67
WILLITS..............72/65 68/67
UKIAH................77/75 74/75
FORT BRAGG...........66/63 62/68
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS65 KREV 151058 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG NEAR
LOVELOVK AND FALLON. CONDITIONS AT TRUCKEE HAVE DRIED TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 151058 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
CORRECTED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR MORNING FOG NEAR
LOVELOVK AND FALLON. CONDITIONS AT TRUCKEE HAVE DRIED TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 17Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 151014
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
214 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THE BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES WITH STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE ALOFT AS H7 TEMPS
MAXED OUT ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE COOLING IS VERY MINIMAL. THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ONLY BE FELT OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES
WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
MAINLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS PACIFIC ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND THE
BLOCKING UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
BY TUESDAY THE 00Z MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THEIR OVERALL
PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY DIFFERENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS
IS TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
HAS IT...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLAT RIDGE. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MOST SPREAD. BEYOND THE TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...THE GFS IS LARGELY THE SAME AS THE ECMWF WEST OF 140W.
GFS HAS A BIAS OF TRYING TO DRIVE ENERGY INTO STRONG RIDGES...AND
THINKING THE GFS IS TRYING TO DO THIS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ALLOWING ENERGY TO UNDERCUT A
DEVELOPING GULF OF ALASKA RIDGE BETWEEN 140-150W AND REACH THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE A DEEP
LOW MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BETWEEN
30-40N...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE SIERRA TO CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT 00Z ECMWF FAVORS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF. THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOWED MUCH LESS QPF...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING FOG
NEAR TRUCKEE. CONDITIONS AT LOVELOCK HAVE DRIED SLIGHTLY TO PREVENT
FOG...BUT STILL A CHANCE FOG COULD FORM. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 16Z.
PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 151010
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
210 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BRINGING SOME COOLING BY THIS WEEKEND. WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
NEXT WEEK WILL TURN COOLER WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
580 NE FLOW ALOFT AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WARM TEMPS
AND LOCAL GUSTY CANYON WINDS TO 40 MPH TODAY. UPPER AIR SUPPORT DOES
INCREASE BY MIDDAY...BUT GRADIENTS RELAX A BIT...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR AREA. STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR NW OF OUR
AREA. PRESSURE OVER THE PLATEAU REMAINS AROUND 1030 MB TODAY...BUT A
FRESH 1040 MB HIGH DEVELOPS TONIGHT...INCREASING OFFSHORE PGRADS TO
15 MB...AND A WAD MAY BE NEEDED FOR MTS-VALS-ORANGEC0 PN FRI.
FORTUNATELY 700 MB EAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS SO GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE LOCALIZED ON FRI. DRY N WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN WITH WEAK IMPULSES BRINGING BURSTS OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A WEAK 575 UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER
SOCAL ON MON. THE MOIST SE FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL BRING IN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING ON MON.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON TUE...AND A WEAK 564 UPPER LOW
APPROACHES SOCAL FROM THE WEST...BRINGING COOLING ONSHORE FLOW AND A
SLIM CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BY WED. TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY COOL TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
***************************************************************
THURSDAY MORNING THE NWS IN SAN DIEGO WILL DEBUT THE "DAILY WEATHER
STORY". IT IS VIEWABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO) BY
CLICKING ON THE "DAILY WEATHER STORY" ICON NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.
***************************************************************
&&
.AVIATION...
150900Z...CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND
25 TO 30 KT IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS...DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
150900Z...LONG PERIOD 20 SECOND WEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY BUT THE SWELL WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET THEN.
IT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ABOUT 4 TO 7 FEET WITH A
PERIOD AROUND 16 SECONDS SUNDAY WITH THE SURF PEAKING AT ABOUT 10
FEET LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MACKECHNIE
AVIATION/MARINE...WHITLOW
000
FXUS66 KLOX 151000
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...SAME OLD STORY IN THE SHORT
TERM AS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY.
CURRENTLY...WINDIEST SPOTS ARE IN THE VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS. WITH SOME
STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED THIS MORNING BY THE MODELS...WILL
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...
JUSTIFYING THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...00Z MODELS INDICATE STRONGEST
OFFSHORE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS AND COASTS OF VTU/LAX COUNTIES.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE COMBO OF CONTINUED RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS DO APPEAR TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...
WILL EXPECT A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING EACH DAY...BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH THE CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE WINDS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS VTU/LAX
COUNTIES TODAY AND LIKELY ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES STILL LOOK GOOD.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...MODELS
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...MOVING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW. SO...WILL EXPECT CONTINUED CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPS
ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE NOTICEABLY WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND MOVES IT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THIS UPPER LOW AND MOVES IT EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD GIVE THE SAME FORECAST
TRENDS...RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS. IN FACT...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE RETURN OF SOME COASTAL STRATUS/FOG
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...15/0945Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE AT
KBUR...KVNY AND KOXR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KLAX...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
KBUR...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE
AFTER 10Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KHNX 150951
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
151 AM PST THU JAN 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. FRESNO/S HIGH WEDNESDAY OF 66 DEGREES
WAS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHORT OF THE RECORD HIGH FOR JANUARY 14TH OF 68
DEGREES...SET IN 1948.
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED...MAINLY FROM HANFORD EAST TO VISALIA
AND SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN FRESNO COUNTY. VISIBILITIES AT
BOTH THE HANFORD AND VISALIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORTS HAVE FALLEN TO LESS
THAN A QUARTER MILE. FURTHER NORTH...THE VISIBILITY AT MADERA
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT HAS VARIED BETWEEN ONE MILE AND A HALF MILE...AND
COULD FALL FURTHER BY DAYBREAK. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT /SFOSPSHNX OR WWUS86 KHNX/ DUE TO THE LIMITED EXTENT AND
PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT ON SHORE SATURDAY AND INLAND SUNDAY. THE MODELS
BEGIN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE TODAY AS A SHORT-WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES...THEN PUSHES WESTWARD FRIDAY TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WOULD FORM A SEMI-REX-BLOCK OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA
FALLING BELOW 5820 METERS BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
NEAR-PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES TODAY FOLLOWED BY A FEW DEGREES
COOLING FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION...BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND.
BY MONDAY...AN UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEEPENING IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE
GFS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH AND BRINGS IT TO
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION. THE ECMWF...IN CONTRAST...ACTUALLY WEAKENS THE TROUGH A
BIT...AND DEVELOPS A LOW OFF CAPE MENDOCINO BY 00Z THURSDAY.
HAVE GONE WITH CLIMO POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT NUDGED 50
PERCENT TO THE GFS. USED AN ELEVATION ADJUSTMENT TO INCREASE POPS A
BIT MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TO ACCOUNT FOR OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. IF THE MODELS ARE RIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
PRECIPITATION EVENT TO REACH CALIFORNIA IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...IFR VISIBILITIES WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL 19Z THURSDAY WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG.
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AREAS OF IFR IN FOG REDEVELOPING AFTER 04Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 15 2009...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO...KERN...KINGS...MADERA AND MERCED COUNTIES.
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS PROHIBITED IN FRESNO...KERN...
KINGS...MADERA...MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION
IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 150530
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
930 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:46 PM PST WEDNESDAY...IT WAS ANOTHER RECORD-
BREAKING WARM DAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW KEPT THE AIRMASS WARM. HIGHS TODAY RANGED
FROM THE 60S AND 70S MOST PLACES TO THE MID 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTIES. OVERALL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON TUESDAY...
HOWEVER...NINE LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO`S 69
DEGREES...SAW RECORD-BREAKING READINGS TODAY WHILE ONE LOCATION...
SALINAS AIRPORT...TIED THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 79 DEGREES. BE
SURE TO CHECK OUT THE RECORD EVENT REPORT SFORERMTR -SXUS76 KMTR FOR
ALL THE DETAILS ON RECORDS BROKEN TODAY.
GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...OFFSHORE FLOW
REVERSES AND STRATUS RETURNS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. ALSO NEXT WEEK COMES THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN
AGAIN ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE LESS
BULLISH WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z GFS IN FACT
SPLITS THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TRACKS SOUTH OFF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY LEAVING OUR
DISTRICT DRY IN BETWEEN. BUT SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP SO IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 PM PST WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. VFR IS FORECAST
THURSDAY.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14TH...INCLUDING NEW NUMBERS
CITY: FORECAST OBSERVED RECORD YEAR
HIGH HIGH HIGH(OLD) OF RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 67 68 72 1924
OAKLAND CITY 69 70* 67 1975
OAKLAND AIRPORT 66 65* 64 1948
SFO AIRPORT 67 64 67 1948
SF CITY 67 69* 66 1967
SAN JOSE 72 73* 68 1988
SAN RAFAEL 67 63 68 1967
SANTA ROSA 68 71* 70 1924
GILROY 72* 71 1981
KING CITY 79 82 88 1915
MONTEREY 75 76* 75 1975
SALINAS 79 80* 76 1967
SANTA CRUZ 74 74 81 1975
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: SSA
CLIMO: RWW/SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 150515
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BRINGING GRADUAL COOLING TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK
TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND BELOW
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES. NEXT WEEK WILL TURN COOLER WITH THE RETURN OF
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
ONCE AGAIN...THE NATIONS HIGH TEMPERATURES WAS IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH WAS 91 AT LAKE FOREST AND ALSO AT THE SANTA ANA
FIRE STATION...BOTH IN ORANGE COUNTY.
THE DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST THE PAST WEEK WILL SLOWLY
BREAKDOWN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IT WILL DRIFT NORTH FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION OFF THE NORCAL COAST TO WESTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY.
DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CAL
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK IMPULSES BRINGING BURSTS OF GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PASSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE GFS AND ECWMF FOR A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN
REMAINS IN DOUBT. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES ARE PROJECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK BUT THEIR STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST.
***************************************************************
THURSDAY MORNING THE NWS IN SAN DIEGO WILL DEBUT THE "DAILY WEATHER
STORY". IT IS VIEWABLE ON OUR WEB PAGE (WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO) BY
CLICKING ON THE "DAILY WEATHER STORY" ICON NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.
***************************************************************
&&
.AVIATION...150430Z
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. THIS DECREASE
IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING AGAIN TO
20-25 KT FRIDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED UP AND DOWNDRAFTS OVER AND
IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...150430Z
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERN IS THE BUILDING NORTHWEST
SWELL...PEAKING AROUND 7 FEET ON MON AND TUE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS...WITH A VERY LONG PERIOD...16-20 SECONDS. THIS SWELL IS
PROPAGATING OUT OF A SUBSTANTIAL FETCH ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN BETWEEN 30N AND 40N LATITUDE FROM ABOUT 160E LONGITUDE
TO ABOUT 155W LONGITUDE. SWELL AND SURF ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BUILDING ON SAT. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF SURF HEIGHTS ARE 7 TO 10
FEET ON EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES WITH MAXIMUM SETS TO 14 FEET
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
000
FXUS66 KSTO 150505
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF NEAR TO RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SEE RERSTO. WEAK VORT MAX ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING
THROUGH NORCAL WITH SOME ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS. MSAS DATA SHOWING
1035 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NE CAL WITH SECONDARY 1038 MB CENTER OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA AND 1022 MB THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. 24-HR CHANGE CHARTS SHOWING SURFACE CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT ATTM BUT KSAC-KRNO SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY
LOWER AND NORTHERLY WIND ALOFT LIGHTER. AS A RESULT SEEING LESS AND
MORE ISOLATED GUSTY NORTH TO EAST SURFACE WIND OVER RIDGES AND
THROUGH FAVORABLY ORIENTED GAPS AND CANYONS IN THE COASTAL RANGE AND
WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA TONIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY OFF THE NORCAL COAST. THUS WE EXPECT TO SEE
MORE NEAR TO RECORD MAX TEMPS TOMORROW. CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOCAL FRIDAY AS UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND OVER PAC NW.
THIS RESULTS IN SOME HEIGHT AND THICKNESS DECREASES AND ABOUT A 2-5
DEG DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS OVER NORCAL FRIDAY. DOWNSLOPING/OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND KEEP NIGHT AND MORNING
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT PATCHY. INCREASING AREAS OF GUSTY NORTH TO
EAST WIND IN PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS E-W SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER INTERIOR
NORCAL AND PHASES WITH NELY FLOW ALOFT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
OMEGA BLOCK WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONES
TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST.
PCH
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO AVN FCST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. LT NLY SFC
WINDS PERSIST WITH LT TO MDT NELY WINDS ALF. VFR CONDS DOMINATE FROM
KCIC VCNTY NORTHWARD THRU TOMORROW. FOR THE REGION SOUTH OF
KCIC...MVFR VSBYS ARE DEVELOPING AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT LOCAL IFR/LIFR
CONDS FROM VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP AFT 10Z...PRIMARILY AFFECTING SOUTH
SAC AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TERMINALS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA NEAR 18Z...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
20Z-03Z WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LINGERING HZ. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KHNX 150504
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
904 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WAS SEEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR COURTESY OF THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT A NEAR CARBON COPY DAY TOMORROW AS LITTLE
CHANGE IS PROJECTED IN THE RIDGE PATTERN. SURFACE VISIBILITIES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE TRENDING LOWER AND AM EXPECTING FOG TO
REDEVELOP DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH A BAND OF FOG
JUST WEST OF AND PARALLEL TO HIGHWAY 99 FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH
THROUGH MERCED COUNTY. SOME LOCAL DENSE PATCHES ARE LIKELY AS WELL
ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGHWAYS 41 AND 43 DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF
EUREKA. NO LARGE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT A REX BLOCK
PATTERN AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND RETROGRADES
SOUTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION THUS THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL
OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AGAIN TONIGHT...PRIMARILY IN A
STRIP DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE EACH NIGHT IN THE VALLEY AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE UPPER
LOW INTO THE PACNW WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF DROPS THE LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR
YOSEMITE. ALSO HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
UNTIL 19Z THURSDAY WITH LOCAL LIFR IN DENSE FOG PATCHES UNTIL 18Z
THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF IFR REDEVELOPING IN FOG AFTER 03Z
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 15 2009... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND MERCED COUNTIES.
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DCH/BEAN
AVN/FW...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KHNX 150504
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
904 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WAS SEEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR COURTESY OF THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT A NEAR CARBON COPY DAY TOMORROW AS LITTLE
CHANGE IS PROJECTED IN THE RIDGE PATTERN. SURFACE VISIBILITIES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE TRENDING LOWER AND AM EXPECTING FOG TO
REDEVELOP DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE A
SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH A BAND OF FOG
JUST WEST OF AND PARALLEL TO HIGHWAY 99 FROM KINGS COUNTY NORTH
THROUGH MERCED COUNTY. SOME LOCAL DENSE PATCHES ARE LIKELY AS WELL
ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGHWAYS 41 AND 43 DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF
EUREKA. NO LARGE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT A REX BLOCK
PATTERN AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND RETROGRADES
SOUTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION THUS THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL
OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AGAIN TONIGHT...PRIMARILY IN A
STRIP DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE EACH NIGHT IN THE VALLEY AT LEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE UPPER
LOW INTO THE PACNW WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF DROPS THE LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR
YOSEMITE. ALSO HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
UNTIL 19Z THURSDAY WITH LOCAL LIFR IN DENSE FOG PATCHES UNTIL 18Z
THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF IFR REDEVELOPING IN FOG AFTER 03Z
FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 15 2009... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA AND MERCED COUNTIES.
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DCH/BEAN
AVN/FW...DURFEE
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 150446
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
846 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:46 PM PST WEDNESDAY...IT WAS ANOTHER RECORD-
BREAKING WARM DAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW KEPT THE AIRMASS WARM. HIGHS TODAY RANGED
FROM THE 60S AND 70S MOST PLACES TO THE MID 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SAN BENITO AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTIES. OVERALL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON TUESDAY...
HOWEVER...NINE LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO`S 69
DEGREES...SAW RECORD-BREAKING READINGS TODAY WHILE ONE LOCATION...
SALINAS AIRPORT...TIED THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 79 DEGREES. BE
SURE TO CHECK OUT THE RECORD EVENT REPORT SFORERMTR -SXUS76 KMTR FOR
ALL THE DETAILS ON RECORDS BROKEN TODAY.
GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...OFFSHORE FLOW
REVERSES AND STRATUS RETURNS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. ALSO NEXT WEEK COMES THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN
AGAIN ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE LESS
BULLISH WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 00Z GFS IN FACT
SPLITS THE INCOMING SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TRACKS SOUTH OFF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY LEAVING OUR
DISTRICT DRY IN BETWEEN. BUT SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP SO IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL IN FACT MATERIALIZE.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 PM PST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FOLLOW PERSISTENCE. VFR IS FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14TH...INCLUDING NEW NUMBERS
CITY: FORECAST OBSERVED RECORD YEAR
HIGH HIGH HIGH(OLD) OF RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 67 68 72 1924
OAKLAND CITY 69 70* 67 1975
OAKLAND AIRPORT 66 65* 64 1948
SFO AIRPORT 67 64 67 1948
SF CITY 67 69* 66 1967
SAN JOSE 72 73* 68 1988
SAN RAFAEL 67 63 68 1967
SANTA ROSA 68 71* 70 1924
GILROY 72* 71 1981
KING CITY 79 82 88 1915
MONTEREY 75 76* 75 1975
SALINAS 79 80* 76 1967
SANTA CRUZ 74 74 81 1975
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: SSA
CLIMO: RWW/SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 150441
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
940 PM MST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
WILL RESULT IN CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...AND MOST OF
THE WESTERN STATES. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE GRAPHICAL
FORECASTS INCLUDING THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
THE PROGS SHOW A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE RIDGE AXIS EVER
SO SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...SOME SHORTWAVES ARE
ADVERTISED TO SLIDE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE GET PULLED
EASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG...RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING A VERY DRY NNWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OUR CWA. IR IMAGERY AT 2 PM
SHOWED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS GENLY RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...WITH
SOME VALUES INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST. ONE SMALL
WRINKLE INVOLVES SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO DROP DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE HIGH AND FORM
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FAR SRN CA/NRN BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE A DRY FEATURE AND DO LITTLE TO CHANGE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE AS CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH AND EAST OF AZ WILL
PERSIST AND KEEP A N-S GRADIENT GOING OVER THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER...AS WELL
AS SOME LOCAL EAST/NORTHEAST BREEZE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND
INLAND...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND CENTERED WEST OF PHOENIX. THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH GENLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS ON TAP. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW
LEVEL TEMPS EACH DAY...AND MEX MOS NUMBERS ARE NEARLY FLAT LINED.
THUS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY...WITH MOST OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROGS INDICATE THE WEAK UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF
PHOENIX WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS IT DOES IT
WILL SPREAD INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
BY TUESDAY. LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE DRY SO NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. THICKNESS VALUES CHANGE LITTLE...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO...DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
GFS AND EUROPEAN START TO DIFFER BY DAY 7...NEXT WEDNESDAY. GFS
BRINGS AN UPPER TROF INLAND OVER THE WESTERN STATES...SPREADING
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INTO ERN AZ...AND BREAKING OUT QPF ACROSS OUR
ERN ZONES. EUROPEAN KEEPS THE UPPER TROF OFF THE CA COAST DURING
THIS TIME. TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF BASED ON SUPERIOR TRACK RECORD PAST
SEVERAL MONTHS...BUT WILL HAVE CLIMO POPS CAPPED AT 9 PERCENT OVER
OUR CWA IN A NOD TO THE GFS AND A POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENT DEVELOPING.
ALSO IN A NOD TO THE GFS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AZ WEDNESDAY...AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL NORTH WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...MAINLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE PHOENIX AREA...SOME
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WILL SEE 10-15 KNOTS EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z. EXPECT SIMILAR WIND PATTERNS AT KPHX DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS WERE EXPERIENCED TODAY...THOUGH THE EAST WINDS WILL HANG
ON LONGER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ/CB
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KLOX 150432
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
832 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.UPDATE...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BLOCKING RIDGE
FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RIDGE PROVIDED
ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH OXNARD
SETTING A SECOND ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY...AND
CAMARILLO TYING ONE.
LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTION INITIALIZED 950 MB TEMPERATURES REASONABLY
WELL...MAYBE WITHIN A FRACTION OF A DEGREE CELSIUS. NAM-WRF
INDICATES OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 850 AND
950 MB WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED
RESPONSE AT 850 MB. MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY WAS LEFT IN TACT WITH
FLOW ALOFT INCREASING. MIXING SHOULD IMPROVE FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMEPRATURES. NAM-WRF
INDICATES 950 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY WITH
A SLIGHT ONSHORE TREND. BASED UPON THIS REASONING...TEMPERATURES
IN THE CURRENT PACAKGE SEEM AGREEABLE WITH THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE THERMAL TROUGH...LOCATED CURRENTLY OVER
THE SANTA MONICA BAY AND VENTURA COUNTY BEACHES WILL HAVE TO
MONITORED CLOSELY. IF THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...TEMEPRATURES MAY NEED TO BE WARMED.
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. NAM-
WRF INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER...950 MB...AND 850 MB WINDS ALL
INCREASING OVER THE AREA. SURFACE GRADIENTS ALSO TREND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM-WRF 850 MB THERMAL
GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN FROM A MARGINAL 4 TO 5 DEGREES CELSIUS...TO
NEAR 8 DEGREES CELSIUS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS LOOK MOST LIKELY BASED UPON THE EVIDENCE AT HAND. GFS
SEEMS TO AGREE WITH NAM-WRF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SEEING
AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS...BUT THE MODEL SOLUTION IS MUCH
COARSER...AND THEREFORE...MUCH WEAKER WITH THE INGREDIENTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. FRI SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE 590DM
HIGH OFF THE NRN CA COAST MOVES TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH LAX-DAG
AND SMX-BFL GRADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...80S
WILL BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN SOME SPOTS
ON FRI...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAKER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
EARLIER.
THE NEXT SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS IS NOW EXPECTED FOR THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AS COLD AIR STREAMS OVER UTAH AND PRODUCES A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES OVER
LA/VTU CO ONCE AGAIN. WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT AS LIKELY THIS
TIME HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE INTO OREGON BY THEN...AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD SEVERELY DAMPEN ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. TEMPS INLAND OF THE COAST SHOULD DROP A BIT AS WELL WITH
THE INFLUX OF NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT IT WILL STAY MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL. WHATEVER SMALL RELIEF IS REALIZED ON FRI WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPS BUMP UP ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN. MIN
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT TO FIGURE
OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE
WINDS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THANKFULLY THE
WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND AS THEY WERE EARLIER
THIS WEEK.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
SUN AND MON WILL REMAIN WARM...AS MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AS WELL AS CONTINUED FIRE WX CONCERNS. CURRENT MODELS
AGREE WITH SHIFTING THE RIDGE ALOFT TO THE EAST LATER ON
MON...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A MUCH BELATED PATTERN
CHANGE. THIS SHIFT WILL WARM THE INTERIOR WESTERN US...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY WEAKEN OFFSHORE GRADS OVER CA. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP
NOTICEABLY ON TUE AND WED AS A RESULT...THOUGH IT STILL WILL LIKELY
NOT FEEL QUITE LIKE WINTER TIME JUST YET. WE MIGHT EVEN BE REMINDED
OF WHAT A CLOUD LOOKS LIKE AFTER MON...AS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PULLED UP FROM DOWN SOUTH DUE TO AN ALMOST SUMMERTIME
MONSOONAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH A TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE PAC TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. DEPENDING ON THE WHICH MODELS HOLDS TRUE...SOME
PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH THE PATTERN IT PRODUCES IS ODD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A DONT-HOLD-YOU-BREATH ATTITUDE FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...THIS WARM AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE READY TO JETTISON ITS WAY OUT OF TOWN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...14/2337Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE AT KBUR AND KVNY.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH NO WIND ISSUES.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH A 30 PERCENT OF OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE.
&&
.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 30 TO 35 FOOT SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE SWELLS GENERATED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL DECAY IN
ROUTE AND THE SMALLER AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 20 SECONDS
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. THE SWELLS HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION TO 4 TO 6 SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE WNW SWELL WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECEASING PERIOD.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
&&
$$
HALL/KITTELL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 142338
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPS OVER INTERIOR NORCAL AND
SEVERAL RECORD/NEAR RECORD MAXES...AT RDD/RBL/SCK/PARADISE/BLU/
SAC/GRASS VLY...TO NAME A FEW. AREA MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE
VERY DRY/STABLE WITH VERY STRONG TEMP INVERSIONS FROM 2500-4000 FT.
THE VERY STEEP TEMP INVERSION ALLOWED THE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO EASILY
MIX DOWN AND PRODUCE THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE ON
THU...THEN INTO AND ACROSS THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH IS
FORECAST AS IT MOVES INLAND WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME SYNOPTIC
COOLING. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
MODEL INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THE STEEP/STRONG TEMP INVERSION AND
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS THU/FRI...THEN FINALLY SOME SLIGHT
COOLING ON SAT. THE STEEP/STRONG INVERSION WILL ALSO CONTINUE STRONG
THERMAL BELTS IN THE FOOTHILLS/MTN ELEVATIONS...WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD AIR SINKING INTO THE MTN VALLEYS. WE
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND OUR MAX TEMP FORECASTS IN THAT DIRECTION.
SAT MORNING LOOKS VERY COLD IN THE NRN MTN AND SIERNEV MTN VALLEYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THAT AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURES WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN HEALTHY N AND E GRADIENTS
AND A DOWNSLOPE/KATABATIC WIND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WILL PRECLUDE FOG PRODUCTION OVER MUCH OF THE SAC VLY...AND LIMIT IT
TO MAINLY THE NRN SAN JOAQUIN VLY AND DELTA AREAS. THE NAM 925 MBS
WIND PROGS FORECAST THE WINDS TO BACK TO THE S/SE FROM THE SAC AREA
SWD INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VLY BY FRI MORNING. THIS WOULD BE A MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITION FOR ADVECTING HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITIES NWD
AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL AND AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG THEN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER MAX TEMPS OVER THE SRN SAC/NRN SAN JOAQUIN
VLY/DELTA AREAS ON FRI.
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE W COAST FORECAST TO CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. THE FORECAST
PATTERN CHANGE WOULD RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPS...BUT WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO BITE DOWN HARD ON THE CHANCE OF PCPN. JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER DAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN. THE GFS INDICATES A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
US AND THE ECMWF INDICATES A CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND CHICO
AND SOUTH INCLUDING THE DELTA DUE TO FOG IN THE MORNINGS WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 142337 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
337 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
TEMPS RUNNING WARM ONCE AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY.
SOME OF THE TRADITIONALLY WINDIER SPOTS ARE A BIT WARMER
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS WE ARE EXPERIENCING TODAY. SOME
RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL IF THEY HAVE NOT YET. BORDERLINE WIND
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LA/VTU MTNS AS WELL AS THE SANTA
MONICAS...THOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL BE ONLY BREEZY AT BEST. WEAKER
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL LOWS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION.
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FRI SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE 590DM HIGH OFF THE NRN CA COAST MOVES TO
THE NORTH...BUT WITH LAX-DAG AND SMX-BFL GRADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...80S WILL BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY IN SOME SPOTS ON FRI...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAKER
THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED EARLIER.
THE NEXT SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS IS NOW EXPECTED FOR THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AS COLD AIR STREAMS OVER UTAH AND PRODUCES A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES OVER
LA/VTU CO ONCE AGAIN. WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT AS LIKELY THIS
TIME HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE INTO OREGON BY THEN...AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD SEVERELY DAMPEN ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. TEMPS INLAND OF THE COAST SHOULD DROP A BIT AS WELL WITH
THE INFLUX OF NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT IT WILL STAY MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL. WHATEVER SMALL RELIEF IS REALIZED ON FRI WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPS BUMP UP ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN. MIN
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT TO FIGURE
OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE
WINDS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THANKFULLY THE
WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND AS THEY WERE EARLIER
THIS WEEK.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
SUN AND MON WILL REMAIN WARM...AS MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AS WELL AS CONTINUED FIRE WX CONCERNS. CURRENT MODELS
AGREE WITH SHIFTING THE RIDGE ALOFT TO THE EAST LATER ON
MON...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A MUCH BELATED PATTERN
CHANGE. THIS SHIFT WILL WARM THE INTERIOR WESTERN US...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY WEAKEN OFFSHORE GRADS OVER CA. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP
NOTICEABLY ON TUE AND WED AS A RESULT...THOUGH IT STILL WILL LIKELY
NOT FEEL QUITE LIKE WINTER TIME JUST YET. WE MIGHT EVEN BE REMINDED
OF WHAT A CLOUD LOOKS LIKE AFTER MON...AS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PULLED UP FROM DOWN SOUTH DUE TO AN ALMOST SUMMERTIME
MONSOONAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH A TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE PAC TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. DEPENDING ON THE WHICH MODELS HOLDS TRUE...SOME
PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH THE PATTERN IT PRODUCES IS ODD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A DONT-HOLD-YOU-BREATH ATTITUDE FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...THIS WARM AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE READY TO JETTISON ITS WAY OUT OF TOWN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...14/2337Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND
TURBULENCE AT KBUR AND KVNY.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH NO WIND ISSUES.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH A 30 PERCENT OF OCCASIONAL WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE.
&&
.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 30 TO 35 FOOT SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE SWELLS GENERATED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL DECAY IN
ROUTE AND THE SMALLER AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 20 SECONDS
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. THE SWELLS HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION TO 4 TO 6 SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE WNW SWELL WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECEASING PERIOD.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 142330
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
330 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...GRADUAL COOLING AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. RAIN POSSIBLY RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAY`S VALUE WHICH HAS HELPED TO KEEP ANY RECORDS FROM FALLING
AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF HEATING TO GO SO
PLACES SUCH AS SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND WHICH HAVE RELATIVELY LOW
RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE COULD STILL SEE A NEW RECORD SET. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY EASTERLY/OFFSHORE WITH
AROUND 1 MB SFO-SAC CONTINUING. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP OUR STREAK
OF SUNNY WARM DAYS IN TACT ALONG WITH GENERALLY FOG-FREE EVENING.
GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY THE FORECAST
HEAVILY WEIGHED ON WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. THAT MEANS...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAYS. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE A BIT
MORE THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING. THE BAY ITSELF AND COMMUNITIES
RIGHT AT THE BAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE FOG. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 40S FOR URBAN LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE
30S WILL BE COMMON.
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT START
TO COOL. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS EACH DAY ALTHOUGH WE
SHOULD STILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH FOG OVER THE
CENTRAL VALLEY FORECAST TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT...MORE AND MORE OF
THAT SHOULD START TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO
KEEP THE OFFSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHICH
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA
CLARA VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH.
RAIN LOOKS TO MAKE ITS LONG-AWAITED RETURN AS EARLY AS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SYSTEM TO THE WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE
TRAJECTORY OF IT AND IF IT WILL BE A ONE TIME SHOT OR ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL COME IN A DAY OR TWO AFTER IT. FAR TOO EARLY TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
ONE FINAL NOTE...AS WAS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE DROPPED TO VERY LOW LEVELS PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS OVER
2000 FEET WITH ONLY LIMITED RECOVERIES WHICH MAKES FOR SOME DICEY
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS SITUATION WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 PM PST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FOLLOW PERSISTENCE. VFR IS FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14TH.
CITY: FORECAST RECORD YEAR
HIGH HIGH OF RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 67 72 1924
OAKLAND CITY 69 67 1975
OAKLAND AIRPORT 66 64 1948
SFO AIRPORT 67 67 1948
SF CITY 67 66 1967
SAN JOSE 72 68 1988
SAN RAFAEL 67 68 1967
SANTA ROSA 68 70 1924
KING CITY 79 88 1915
MONTEREY 75 75 1975
SALINAS 79 76 1967
SANTA CRUZ 74 81 1975
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: BELL
CLIMO: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: MEHLE/CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KEKA 142258
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
300 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WEST
COAST...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
COUPLED WITH WEAK AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
MAX TEMPS AND COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE RETURN OF STRATUS TO COASTAL AREAS IS GOING TO BE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS AFTERNOONS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPING WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. IT HAS PROGRESSIVELY INCREASED COVERAGE TOWARD THE COAST
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATING THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
INDEED WEAKENED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN. THIS
WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS SUBSTANTIATED BY A SHIP REPORT AT
17Z 60NM OFF THE COAST OF CAPE MENDOCINO REPORTING A WESTERLY WIND
AT 10 KTS. WITH NO STRENGTHENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW INDICATED IN THE
MODELS TO DISRUPT THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING TREND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED STRATUS COVERAGE OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COASTAL AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO MAY
VERY WELL SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
NIGHTTIME TREND TOWARD WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
STRATUS MAKING IT TO THE COAST THIS EARLY. BK
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE MADE
TO THE EXISTING FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS GROWING OF A PATTERN
CHANGE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST THAT BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FOR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. INTERMODEL AND RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY REMAIN HIGH
SO DETAILS REGARDING POSSIBLE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS ARE
AMBIGUOUS AT BEST...BUT WILL NUDGE POPS UP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY BY
WEDNESDAY. BURGER
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO HAZE IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING. TH
&&
.MARINE...CALM SEAS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL GENERATE A WEST
SWELL WITH 20 SECOND PERIODS THROUGH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WATERS
FRIDAY. THE W SWELL WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 FEET THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 13 SECONDS ON SATURDAY. TH
&&
.CLIMATE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SELECTED RECORD AND FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE BELOW.
SITE JAN 15 JAN 16
FORECAST/RECORD FORECAST/RECORD
CRESCENT CITY........69/66 69/73
ORICK................67/64 67/64
KLAMATH..............66/68 66/72
EUREKA...............65/64 65/70
WEAVERVILLE..........60/61 58/63
HOOPA ...............60/66 60/67
WILLITS..............65/65 63/67
UKIAH................75/75 72/75
FORT BRAGG...........76/63 77/68
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KEKA 142258
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
300 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WEST
COAST...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
COUPLED WITH WEAK AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
MAX TEMPS AND COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE RETURN OF STRATUS TO COASTAL AREAS IS GOING TO BE QUITE THE
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS AFTERNOONS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATUS DEVELOPING WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. IT HAS PROGRESSIVELY INCREASED COVERAGE TOWARD THE COAST
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATING THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW HAS
INDEED WEAKENED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN. THIS
WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS SUBSTANTIATED BY A SHIP REPORT AT
17Z 60NM OFF THE COAST OF CAPE MENDOCINO REPORTING A WESTERLY WIND
AT 10 KTS. WITH NO STRENGTHENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW INDICATED IN THE
MODELS TO DISRUPT THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING TREND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INCREASED STRATUS COVERAGE OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COASTAL AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO MAY
VERY WELL SEE A RETURN OF STRATUS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
NIGHTTIME TREND TOWARD WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
STRATUS MAKING IT TO THE COAST THIS EARLY. BK
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE MADE
TO THE EXISTING FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS GROWING OF A PATTERN
CHANGE FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SHUNTED SUFFICIENTLY FAR EAST THAT BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FOR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. INTERMODEL AND RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY REMAIN HIGH
SO DETAILS REGARDING POSSIBLE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW LEVELS ARE
AMBIGUOUS AT BEST...BUT WILL NUDGE POPS UP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY BY
WEDNESDAY. BURGER
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO HAZE IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING. TH
&&
.MARINE...CALM SEAS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE PAC WILL GENERATE A WEST
SWELL WITH 20 SECOND PERIODS THROUGH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WATERS
FRIDAY. THE W SWELL WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 FEET THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THE PERIOD WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 13 SECONDS ON SATURDAY. TH
&&
.CLIMATE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SELECTED RECORD AND FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY ARE BELOW.
SITE JAN 15 JAN 16
FORECAST/RECORD FORECAST/RECORD
CRESCENT CITY........69/66 69/73
ORICK................67/64 67/64
KLAMATH..............66/68 66/72
EUREKA...............65/64 65/70
WEAVERVILLE..........60/61 58/63
HOOPA ...............60/66 60/67
WILLITS..............65/65 63/67
UKIAH................75/75 72/75
FORT BRAGG...........76/63 77/68
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS65 KREV 142242
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
242 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. CIRRUS HAS INCREASED A BIT TODAY
AND OPTED TO BUMP UP SKY COVER A FEW PERCENT. MOST OF THIS WILL
APPEAR THIN OVERNIGHT SO STAYED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS LOWERED A
FEW DEGREES TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG VICINITY OF
FALLON AND LOVELOCK OVERNIGHT. PRESENCE OF SFC WATER THERE HAS
BEEN ENHANCING FOG DEVELOPMENT LAST FEW MORNINGS AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND COOL TEMPS...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FOLD OVER BY
LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MORE OF A PATTERN SHIFT BEYOND THE
EXTENDED. AS THE HIGH FOLDS OVER AND DRIFTS INLAND WILL LIKELY SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NE THEN EASTERLY FLOW AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT. SFC E TO NE FLOW SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH WRN
NV VALLEYS AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN SOME SIERRA
SITES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS STATED TEMPS ARE MORE SEASONAL
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH DAY STILL AROUND AVERAGE
WITH LACK OF SIG CLOUD COVER.
WITH TRANSITION TO MORE NE THEN E FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SEE STRONGER
RIDGE GUSTS FROM THE NE AND E THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN SIERRA
BY THURSDAY AFTN. HAVE BUMPED THESE UP SLIGHTLY TO THE 35 TO 45
MPH RANGE. EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CARSON COULD TRANSLATE
TO THE SFC NEAR LAKE TAHOE WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER EASTERLIES AS
WELL. SO MAY SEE WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 1 TO 2 FOOT RANGE ALONG THE
WEST SHORE THURSDAY AFTN. RIDGES IN WRN NV NOT AS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
GUSTS AS STRONG AS THE SIERRA WITH 20 TO 25 MPH TYPICAL OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. MLF
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS.
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER IDAHO TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN/DE-AMPLIFYING
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND ON INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND (JANUARY 24-25) AS
THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.
AS IS TYPICAL WITH A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE...MODEL PROGS GO
HAYWIRE WITH VARIOUS PLACEMENT OF ENERGY BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF PINCHES OFF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW AND ALLOWS ENERGY
TO SLIP UNDER IT INTO CALIFORNIA WITH LIGHT PRECIP NEXT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE SIERRA. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z GFS PUNTS THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ENERGY DIVING DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS 500 MB STANDARD DEVIATIONS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY ARE OVER 100 METERS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
INDICATING THE MASSIVE VARIATIONS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...I LEFT THE IDEA OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH THE 12Z GFS INDICATING
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WEDNESDAY AND THE ECMWF SHOWING 40S AND 50S
(BASED ON THE MODEL 850 MB TEMPS)! SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
FOR THE LATE NIGHT TO MID MORNING HOURS WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR THE
CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINKS (AROUND KLOL AND KNFL). KTRK HAS BEEN SCOURED
OF THE MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR FOG TONIGHT BUT IT COULD RETURN IN A
COUPLE DAYS.
WIND-WISE...PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 142213
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
210 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
TEMPS RUNNING WARM ONCE AGAIN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY.
SOME OF THE TRADITIONALLY WINDIER SPOTS ARE A BIT WARMER
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS WE ARE EXPERIENCING TODAY. SOME
RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL IF THEY HAVE NOT YET. BORDERLINE WIND
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LA/VTU MTNS AS WELL AS THE SANTA
MONICAS...THOUGH MOST SPOTS WILL BE ONLY BREEZY AT BEST. WEAKER
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL LOWS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION.
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FRI SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE 590DM HIGH OFF THE NRN CA COAST MOVES TO
THE NORTH...BUT WITH LAX-DAG AND SMX-BFL GRADS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...80S WILL BE COMMON ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY IN SOME SPOTS ON FRI...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAKER
THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED EARLIER.
THE NEXT SURGE OF OFFSHORE WINDS IS NOW EXPECTED FOR THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AS COLD AIR STREAMS OVER UTAH AND PRODUCES A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORIES OVER
LA/VTU CO ONCE AGAIN. WARNING LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT AS LIKELY THIS
TIME HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE INTO OREGON BY THEN...AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD SEVERELY DAMPEN ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. TEMPS INLAND OF THE COAST SHOULD DROP A BIT AS WELL WITH
THE INFLUX OF NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT IT WILL STAY MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL. WHATEVER SMALL RELIEF IS REALIZED ON FRI WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS TEMPS BUMP UP ONCE AGAIN ON SAT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN. MIN
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT TO FIGURE
OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF THE
WINDS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THANKFULLY THE
WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG THIS TIME AROUND AS THEY WERE EARLIER
THIS WEEK.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
SUN AND MON WILL REMAIN WARM...AS MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE. WIND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AS WELL AS CONTINUED FIRE WX CONCERNS. CURRENT MODELS
AGREE WITH SHIFTING THE RIDGE ALOFT TO THE EAST LATER ON
MON...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A MUCH BELATED PATTERN
CHANGE. THIS SHIFT WILL WARM THE INTERIOR WESTERN US...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY WEAKEN OFFSHORE GRADS OVER CA. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP
NOTICEABLY ON TUE AND WED AS A RESULT...THOUGH IT STILL WILL LIKELY
NOT FEEL QUITE LIKE WINTER TIME JUST YET. WE MIGHT EVEN BE REMINDED
OF WHAT A CLOUD LOOKS LIKE AFTER MON...AS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY GET PULLED UP FROM DOWN SOUTH DUE TO AN ALMOST SUMMERTIME
MONSOONAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH A TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE PAC TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. DEPENDING ON THE WHICH MODELS HOLDS TRUE...SOME
PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH THE PATTERN IT PRODUCES IS ODD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A DONT-HOLD-YOU-BREATH ATTITUDE FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...THIS WARM AND
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE READY TO JETTISON ITS WAY OUT OF TOWN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...14/1800Z.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 130W WILL PERSIST WHILE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA SHIFTS SOUTH WITHIN
MODERATE NORTH FLOW. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST.
KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 30 TO 35 FOOT SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE SWELLS GENERATED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL DECAY IN
ROUTE AND THE SMALLER AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 20 SECONDS
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. THE SWELLS HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION TO 4 TO 6 SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE WNW SWELL WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECEASING PERIOD.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION/MARINE...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 142200
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
200 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PST WEDNESDAY...GRADUAL COOLING AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES. RAIN POSSIBLY RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 3 AND 6 DEGREES BELOW
YESTERDAY`S VALUE WHICH HAS HELPED TO KEEP ANY RECORDS FROM FALLING
AT THIS TIME. STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF HEATING TO GO SO
PLACES SUCH AS SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND WHICH HAVE RELATIVELY LOW
RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE COULD STILL SEE A NEW RECORD SET. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY EASTERLY/OFFSHORE WITH
AROUND 1 MB SFO-SAC CONTINUING. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP OUR STREAK
OF SUNNY WARM DAYS IN TACT ALONG WITH GENERALLY FOG-FREE EVENING.
GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY THE FORECAST
HEAVILY WEIGHED ON WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. THAT MEANS...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAYS. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE A BIT
MORE THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING. THE BAY ITSELF AND COMMUNITIES
RIGHT AT THE BAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE FOG. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 40S FOR URBAN LOCATIONS EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE
30S WILL BE COMMON.
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT START
TO COOL. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS EACH DAY ALTHOUGH WE
SHOULD STILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH FOG OVER THE
CENTRAL VALLEY FORECAST TO INCREASE EACH NIGHT...MORE AND MORE OF
THAT SHOULD START TO ADVECT INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DO
KEEP THE OFFSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHICH
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE EXTENT OF ANY FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SANTA
CLARA VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH.
RAIN LOOKS TO MAKE ITS LONG-AWAITED RETURN AS EARLY AS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SYSTEM TO THE WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE
TRAJECTORY OF IT AND IF IT WILL BE A ONE TIME SHOT OR ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL COME IN A DAY OR TWO AFTER IT. FAR TOO EARLY TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
ONE FINAL NOTE...AS WAS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE DROPPED TO VERY LOW LEVELS PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS OVER
2000 FEET WITH ONLY LIMITED RECOVERIES WHICH MAKES FOR SOME DICEY
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS SITUATION WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
EACH DAY THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. KSTS MAY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14TH.
CITY: FORECAST RECORD YEAR
HIGH HIGH OF RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 67 72 1924
OAKLAND CITY 69 67 1975
OAKLAND AIRPORT 66 64 1948
SFO AIRPORT 67 67 1948
SF CITY 67 66 1967
SAN JOSE 72 68 1988
SAN RAFAEL 67 68 1967
SANTA ROSA 68 70 1924
KING CITY 79 88 1915
MONTEREY 75 75 1975
SALINAS 79 76 1967
SANTA CRUZ 74 81 1975
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: BELL
CLIMO: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: MEHLE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 142148
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
148 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...A STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AS VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF EUREKA.
NO LARGE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT A REX BLOCK PATTERN
AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION THUS THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL OCCUR IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AGAIN TONIGHT...PRIMARILY IN A STRIP DOWN THE
CENTER OF THE VALLEY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
CONTINUE EACH NIGHT IN THE VALLEY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER
IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE UPPER
LOW INTO THE PACNW WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF DROPS THE LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN LIFTING IT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE TRENDED MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR YOSEMITE. ALSO HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG MAINLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN AND KINGS RIVER LATE AT NIGHT AND
MORNING FROM 09Z TO 20Z EACH DAY. ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE FLOW PROVIDING
CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THRU 00Z FRIDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14 2009... UNHEALTHY IN KERN COUNTY.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...MV
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 142132
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BRINGING A GRADUAL COOLING TREND FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES. COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
TODAY IS A LITTLE WARMER INLAND THAN YESTERDAY WHILE IT IS A LOT
COOLER AT THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE QUITE LOCALIZED AND NOT VERY
STRONG. DESPITE THE WARM...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...THE FIRE
POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE CRITICALLY HIGH BECAUSE FUEL MOISTURES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO SUPPRESS EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT REMAINS FIRM ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
THIS HIGH WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL
OVER OUR REGION. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LOWER OVERALL BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE.
OFFSHORE WINDS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES AND EVEN REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR MINDS ON WHICH DAYS THAT
COULD HAPPEN. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS FRIDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY WE COULD
GET A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THOSE
DETAILS AS THE MODELS TRY TO GET A HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
OFFSHORE WIND EPISODE. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH PATTERN
AND ONSHORE FLOW SEEM TO TAKE OVER. THAT SHOULD BRING OUR WEATHER
BACK TO SEASONAL ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. STILL NO
RAIN IN SIGHT...BUT IF WE COULD FIND ANY MOISTURE AND A TIMELY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WE COULD GET SOME. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF THAT HAPPENING LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
142030Z...NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY 0300 UTC AND TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER 15/1800 UTC THURSDAY. THIS DECREASE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BACK TO 20-25 KT
FRIDAY MORNING. SHALLOW HAZE LAYER...GENERALLY BELOW FL002 OVER
ADJACENT WATERS/IMMEDIATE COAST MAY PUSH INLAND UP TO 10 MILES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SLANT VISIBILITY 2-3 MILES...BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW PUSHES IT BACK OUT TO SEA FRIDAY MORNING....OTHERWISE
NO RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY.
&&
.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WIND FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT REESTABLISH
BEFORE THEN SO ASIDE FROM HAZE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECT BEACH ATTENDANCE/PARTICIPATION IN MARINE RECREATIONAL
ACTIVITIES WILL BE VERY HIGH THIS WEEKEND. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
CONCERN IS THE BUILDING WEST SWELL...PEAKING AROUND 8 FEET...WITH A
VERY LONG PERIOD...16-20 SECONDS. THIS SWELL IS PROPAGATING OUT OF
THE EXTREMELY LONG AND STRONG FETCH ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 30N AND 35N LATITUDE FROM JAPAN TO ABOUT 155W
LONGITUDE. WAVE CALCULATOR GENERATES SURF HEIGHTS AVERAGING BETWEEN
10 AND 13 FEET FOR EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES WITH MAXIMUM SETS TO
16 FEET. THE SURF IS LIKELY TO BUILD RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...ACTING ALMOST LIKE A WAVE FRONT. MARINE
SAFETY AGENCIES MIGHT WANT TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL STAFFING/RESOURCES
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR
000
FXUS66 KLOX 142130
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
122 PM PST WED JAN 14 2009
UPDATED MARINE SECTION
.SHORT TERM...
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ABOUT 4.5 MB FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE BIG CHANGE IS THE WEST TO EAST ONSHORE TREND OF 2 MB. WITHOUT
MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND NO THERMAL SUPPORT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LOW GRADE WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA MONICAS AND ALSO SOME 15
TO 25 MPH EAST WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS.
THICKNESSES FALL A LITTLE SO LOOK FOR SOME INTERIOR COOLING. VLY
TEMPS WILL BE WARM WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW A LITTLE LESS
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLING. THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL BE THE TRICKIEST FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE
SEABREEZES TODAY. SOME AREAS RIGHT AT THE COAST WILL SEE 10 TO 15
DEGREE DROPS IN TEMPS WHILE OTHER PLACES MAY SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS
ARRIVE BEFORE NOON. STILL IT WILL BE WARM AND ONE OR TWO RECORDS MAY
FALL.
THE VERY STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THERE REALLY SHOULD
BE NO CHANGE. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA MONICAS
WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER AT NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAYS WITH AGAIN THE GREATEST VARIABILITY OVER THE
COASTS WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE FIGHTING THE SEABREEZE.
ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST SETTING UP A
FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A FEW COAST AND VLY ZONES MAY NEED
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES WHEN THIS UPPER SUPPORT KICKS IN.
OVERALL HGTS AND THKNS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH
AND TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF THE
COASTAL SITES WHERE THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD WARM A FEW
LOCATIONS.
LOW HUMIDITIES AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER HIGH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH AGREE THAT THE PATTERN
WILL ACTUALLY AMPLIFY FURTHER. SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH CRAWLS INTO
THE PAC NW WHILE A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOCAL (CUTTING OFF
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WIND). BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH WITH 588 HGTS
IS ACTUALLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE AN EQUALLY SHARP TROF WILL
PLAGUE THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE
SKIES CLEAR BUT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WINDS SIMPLY IS NOT THERE
AND THERE SHOULD ONLY BE LOCAL CANYON WINDS. TEMPS WILL COOL BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
FINALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE FALL OVER TO THE EAST AND
ONSHORE FLOW SLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. THE EC IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS. BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...14/1800Z.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 130W WILL PERSIST WHILE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA SHIFTS SOUTH WITHIN
MODERATE NORTH FLOW. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST.
KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE...A LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PERSISTENT STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE 30 TO 35 FOOT SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE SWELLS GENERATED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL DECAY IN
ROUTE AND THE SMALLER AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS AROUND 20 SECONDS
WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FRIDAY. THE SWELLS HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION TO 4 TO 6 SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE WNW SWELL WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL DECEASING PERIOD.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 142111
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
WILL RESULT IN CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG...RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING A VERY DRY NNWLY FLOW ALOFT TO OUR CWA. IR IMAGERY AT 2 PM
SHOWED SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SRN CA AND AZ...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER
THE LOWER DESERTS GENLY RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...WITH
SOME VALUES INTO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST. ONE SMALL
WRINKLE INVOLVES SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO DROP DOWN THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE...THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE HIGH AND FORM
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FAR SRN CA/NRN BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE A DRY FEATURE AND DO LITTLE TO CHANGE THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE AS CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH AND EAST OF AZ WILL
PERSIST AND KEEP A N-S GRADIENT GOING OVER THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER...AS WELL
AS SOME LOCAL EAST/NORTHEAST BREEZE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD AND
INLAND...WHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND CENTERED WEST OF PHOENIX. THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH GENLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR
NIGHTS ON TAP. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW
LEVEL TEMPS EACH DAY...AND MEX MOS NUMBERS ARE NEARLY FLAT LINED.
THUS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH
DAY...WITH MOST OF THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 70S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PROGS INDICATE THE WEAK UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF
PHOENIX WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND AS IT DOES IT
WILL SPREAD INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
BY TUESDAY. LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE DRY SO NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. THICKNESS VALUES CHANGE LITTLE...SO HIGH TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO...DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
GFS AND EUROPEAN START TO DIFFER BY DAY 7...NEXT WEDNESDAY. GFS
BRINGS AN UPPER TROF INLAND OVER THE WESTERN STATES...SPREADING
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE INTO ERN AZ...AND BREAKING OUT QPF ACROSS OUR
ERN ZONES. EUROPEAN KEEPS THE UPPER TROF OFF THE CA COAST DURING
THIS TIME. TEND TO FAVOR ECMWF BASED ON SUPERIOR TRACK RECORD PAST
SEVERAL MONTHS...BUT WILL HAVE CLIMO POPS CAPPED AT 9 PERCENT OVER
OUR CWA IN A NOD TO THE GFS AND A POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENT DEVELOPING.
ALSO IN A NOD TO THE GFS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUDINESS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AZ WEDNESDAY...AND DROPPED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION...AS MENTIONED EARLIER
TODAY...IS KBLH WHERE NORTH BREEZES 12-15 KTS LIKELY TO LAST TIL
AROUND 23Z.
SKY HARBOR AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS SHOULD EXPECT MORE LIGHT
BREEZES OR CALM CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 142038
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
137 PM MST WED JAN 14 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THE REST
OF THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY
FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THEN...BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST...WITH AZ UNDER A DRY SUBSIDENT NWLY/NLY FLOW ALOFT.
AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.10 INCH PER 12Z RAOBS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 8 AM RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE. PROGS
INDICATE NO CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR TODAY...AS DRY NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. H5 HEIGHTS DOWN ABOUT 20M...BUT 12Z FLG/TUS
RAOBS INDICATE TEMPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES BELOW 700MB. ALL IN
ALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES TO RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FINE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM. REST OF DISCUSSION
IS FROM THE PREVIOUS MID SHIFT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT AREAS
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. IT WAS GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO LESS WIND COMPARED WITH EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EAST NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO WASHINGTON STATE THIS
WEEKEND...EAST TO IDAHO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY LATE MONDAY...AND THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BRING SOME BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS HIGH
IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION...AS MENTIONED EARLIER
TODAY...IS KBLH WHERE NORTH BREEZES 12-15 KTS LIKELY TO LAST TIL
AROUND 23Z.
SKY HARBOR AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS SHOULD EXPECT MORE LIGHT
BREEZES OR CALM CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST 12Z THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB/ELLIS
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KSTO 141852
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1050 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL ALONG THE WEST
COAST...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPS OVER INTERIOR NORCAL AND
POSSIBLE RECORD MAXES. AREA MORNING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
DRY/STABLE WITH VERY STRONG TEMP INVERSIONS FROM 2500-4000 FT.
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNITE RESULTED IN GREATER COOLING IN THE INTERIOR
VLY...AND A LITTLE MORE FOG COVERAGE FROM THE NRN SAN JOAQUIN
VLY...AND INTO THE DELTA...SRN SAC VLY. 16Z 24 HR TEMP CHANGES SHOW
ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEG OF COOLING...AND A WHOPPING MINUS 24 DEG CHANGE AT
RDD. GENERALLY THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MAXES TODAY WILL FOLLOW THE
CURRENT TREND. THIS MAY BE TRUE FOR THE VLY LOCATIONS...BUT THE WARM
AIR IN THE UPPER PART OF THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND RECORD POTENTIAL FOR THE FOOTHILLS. BIG JUMP
IN TEMP AT RDD AT 17Z INDICATES THE WARMER AIR IS BEGINNING TO MIX
DOWN THERE...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE RECORD MAX TEMP THERE
TODAY. RECORD AT RDD FOR TODAY IS 76.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE ON THU...THEN
INTO AND ACROSS THE PAC NW OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST AS
IT MOVES INLAND WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME SYNOPTIC COOLING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURES WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN HEALTHY N AND E
GRADIENTS AND A DOWNSLOPE/KATABATIC WIND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE FOG PRODUCTION OVER MUCH OF THE SAC
VLY...AND LIMIT IT TO MAINLY THE NRN SAN JOAQUIN VLY AND DELTA
AREAS. THE NAM 925 MBS WIND PROGS FORECAST THE WINDS TO BACK TO THE
S/SE FROM THE SAC AREA SWD INTO THE SAN JOAQUIN VLY BY FRI MORNING
WHICH WOULD BE A MORE FAVORABLE CONDITION FOR ADVECTING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITIES NWD AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG THEN.
LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE W COAST FORECAST TO CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS. THE FORECAST
PATTERN CHANGE WOULD RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPS...BUT WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO BITE DOWN HARD ON THE CHANCE OF PCPN. JHM
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN
THE WEATHER PATTERN. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND MARYSVILLE
AND SOUTH INCLUDING THE DELTA DUE TO FOG IN THE MORNINGS WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 141755
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
956 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ABOUT 4.5 MB FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE BIG CHANGE IS THE WEST TO EAST ONSHORE TREND OF 2 MB. WITHOUT
MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND NO THERMAL SUPPORT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LOW GRADE WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA MONICAS AND ALSO SOME 15
TO 25 MPH EAST WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS.
THICKNESSES FALL A LITTLE SO LOOK FOR SOME INTERIOR COOLING. VLY
TEMPS WILL BE WARM WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW A LITTLE LESS
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLING. THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL BE THE TRICKIEST FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE
SEABREEZES TODAY. SOME AREAS RIGHT AT THE COAST WILL SEE 10 TO 15
DEGREE DROPS IN TEMPS WHILE OTHER PLACES MAY SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS
ARRIVE BEFORE NOON. STILL IT WILL BE WARM AND ONE OR TWO RECORDS MAY
FALL.
THE VERY STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THERE REALLY SHOULD
BE NO CHANGE. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA MONICAS
WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER AT NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAYS WITH AGAIN THE GREATEST VARIABILITY OVER THE
COASTS WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE FIGHTING THE SEABREEZE.
ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST SETTING UP A
FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A FEW COAST AND VLY ZONES MAY NEED
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES WHEN THIS UPPER SUPPORT KICKS IN.
OVERALL HGTS AND THKNS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH
AND TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF THE
COASTAL SITES WHERE THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD WARM A FEW
LOCATIONS.
LOW HUMIDITIES AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER HIGH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH AGREE THAT THE PATTERN
WILL ACTUALLY AMPLIFY FURTHER. SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH CRAWLS INTO
THE PAC NW WHILE A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOCAL (CUTTING OFF
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WIND). BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH WITH 588 HGTS
IS ACTUALLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE AN EQUALLY SHARP TROF WILL
PLAGUE THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE
SKIES CLEAR BUT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WINDS SIMPLY IS NOT THERE
AND THERE SHOULD ONLY BE LOCAL CANYON WINDS. TEMPS WILL COOL BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
FINALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE FALL OVER TO THE EAST AND
ONSHORE FLOW SLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. THE EC IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS. BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...14/1800Z.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG 130W WILL PERSIST WHILE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN NEVADA SHIFTS SOUTH WITHIN
MODERATE NORTH FLOW. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA
WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE AREA WILL PERSIST.
KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST.
KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN SKIES BELOW 12KFT WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS.
&&
.MARINE/SURF...A LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY...AND THEN REACH THE SO CAL BIGHT BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SWELL SHOULD CREATE SURF 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE FAVORED
WEST FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH LARGEST SETS TO
8-10 FEET LIKELY PEAKING AT VENTURA BY SATURDAY. AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL ALSO SEE A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SURF BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SETS 8 TO 12 FEET LIKELY WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER SETS
ON SATURDAY. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY. IF MODELS
PERSIST WITH THIS PATTERN...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...30
MARINE/SURF...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 141743
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
943 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:45 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
REMAINS POSSIBILITY OF RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
A LITTLE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY THIS MORNING WITH
SANTA ROSA AND CONCORD BOTH REPORTING SOME OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE OF THAT...LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR WEATHER TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WHILE A WEAK
EASTERLY/OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WERE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY
MORNING AND STARTED OUT MOSTLY IN THE 40S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS. ALTHOUGH WE
USUALLY DO NOT ASSOCIATE JANUARY WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT RH VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES OVER 2000 FEET...HAVE
BEEN DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
FOR HIGHS TODAY THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL
BREAK ANY RECORDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 18
AND 20 C WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. THE TWO MAIN
DIFFERENCES ARE THE COOLER START TO TODAY AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT
IS HALF OF THE VALUE FROM YESTERDAY AND BASED OFF THE NAM SHOULD
DECREASE CLOSE TO NEUTRAL BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING
SOME COOLER AIR IN FOR PLACES RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS HIGHS 2 TO 4 DEGREES LESS FOR MOST PLACES WHICH SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. TONIGHT SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FOG COVERAGE WITH THE GRADIENT FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE
LESS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AROUND 4C
BY SATURDAY WHILE THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS DROPPING FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE
CENTRAL VALLEY SO MORE OF THAT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA.
AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR IF IT WILL ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA OR IF IT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
NO SIGN OF ANY RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. KSTS MAY SEE FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14TH.
CITY: FORECAST RECORD YEAR
HIGH HIGH OF RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 67 72 1924
OAKLAND CITY 69 67 1975
OAKLAND AIRPORT 66 64 1948
SFO AIRPORT 67 67 1948
SF CITY 67 66 1967
SAN JOSE 72 68 1988
SAN RAFAEL 67 68 1967
SANTA ROSA 68 70 1924
KING CITY 79 88 1915
MONTEREY 75 75 1975
SALINAS 79 76 1967
SANTA CRUZ 74 81 1975
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: BELL
CLIMO: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: MEHLE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 141722
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SLOW COOLING FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES. COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
SKIES ARE CRYSTAL CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING PROMISING ANOTHER SUNNY
WARM DAY. WINDS ARE WAY DOWN FROM WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AND EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE FOLLOWED THEM DOWN. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WINDS WERE FOLLOWING THE SANTA ANA RIVER DRAINAGE QUITE
CLOSELY...AND TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE 70 IN SPOTS ALONG THAT
CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES IN CALM COLD POCKETS WERE IN THE
30S. FOR EXAMPLE...IN RIVERSIDE AT 6 AM IT WAS A BREEZY 70 AT THE
AIRPORT AND 35 AT MARCH ARB. DESPITE THE WARM...VERY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS...THE FIRE POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE CRITICALLY HIGH BECAUSE
FUEL MOISTURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO SUPPRESS EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD ALMOST REACH THOSE OF
YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRM ALONG THE WEST COAST.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THIS HIGH WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO OREGON
AND HEIGHTS WILL FALL OVER OUR REGION. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER OVERALL. OFFSHORE WINDS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES AND EVEN REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR MINDS ON WHICH DAYS THAT COULD HAPPEN.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS FRIDAY WE COULD GET STRONGER WINDS. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A WEAK TROUGH PATTERN AND ONSHORE FLOW SEEM TO
TAKE OVER. THAT SHOULD BRING OUR WEATHER BACK TO SEASONAL. STILL NO
RAIN IN SIGHT...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A TIMELY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
141715Z...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH IN THE FL130-FL010 LAYER
WILL PRODUCE TURBULENCE OVER AND IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER ELEVATIONS LOWER VALLEYS/COASTAL
FOOTHILLS. WIND SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT AFTER 0300 UTC AND TO 10
KT OR LESS AFTER 15/1800 UTC THURSDAY. PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH
ANOTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT COMING FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD KEEP
MARINE LAYER FROM RE-ESTABLISHING COMPLETELY...BUT THE TEMPORARY
DROP OFF IN THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALLOW A DEEPER HAZE LAYER WITH
SLANT VISIBILITY 3SM THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN FL002-FL003...TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND...ABOUT 10
MILES...INSTEAD ON BEING HELD AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR
000
FXUS66 KHNX 141645
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
845 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES THIS MORNING. FOG CONTINUE IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
STRIP DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY WEST OF HIGHWAY 99 FROM MERCED
COUNTY SOUTH TO KINGS COUNTY AND IMPACTING HIGHWAYS 41 AND 43.
THE FOG WILL CLEAR MOST AREAS BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM...GIVING WAY TO
SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT...ONCE
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY.
A STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS THE VERY
STRONG CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF EUREKA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW PERSISTENCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH ANCHORED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST AND
THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUE TO PROJECT A REX BLOCK
PATTERN AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND RETROGRADES
SOUTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION THUS THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG MAINLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN AND KINGS RIVER LATE AT NIGHT AND
MORNING FROM 09Z TO 20Z EACH DAY. ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE FLOW PROVIDING
CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THRU 18Z THURSDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14 2009... UNHEALTHY IN KERN COUNTY.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...MV
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KPSR 141552
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
850 AM MST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THE REST
OF THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY
FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THEN...BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE
WEST COAST...WITH AZ UNDER A DRY SUBSIDENT NWLY/NLY FLOW ALOFT.
AIRMASS VERY DRY WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.10 INCH PER 12Z RAOBS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 8 AM RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE. PROGS
INDICATE NO CHANGES IN THE PATTERN FOR TODAY...AS DRY NWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. H5 HEIGHTS DOWN ABOUT 20M...BUT 12Z FLG/TUS
RAOBS INDICATE TEMPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES BELOW 700MB. ALL IN
ALL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...WITH VALUES TO RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. CURRENT
FORECASTS ARE FINE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM. REST OF DISCUSSION
IS FROM THE PREVIOUS MID SHIFT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT AREAS
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. IT WAS GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO LESS WIND COMPARED WITH EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EAST NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO WASHINGTON STATE THIS
WEEKEND...EAST TO IDAHO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY LATE MONDAY...AND THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BRING SOME BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS HIGH
IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AS STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB/ELLIS
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KSTO 141227
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
430 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CONTROL ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT A SECOND DAY OF RECORD WARMTH
YESTERDAY FROM REDDING SOUTH TO SACRAMENTO. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
BE SLOW TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE COASTLINE.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT BROUGHT GUSTY
WINDS TO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARDS TOWARDS UTAH...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THESE TWO PUT
TOGETHER...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON TO BE A BIT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. RECORD HIGHS WILL STILL A POSSIBILITY HOWEVER.
EXPECTING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN BACK UP THURSDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND WEST SAC VALLEY AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS AND CANYONS. 850 MB
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. EVEN STILL...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO RULE
OUT MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND UNDERCUTS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE...FORCING IT NORTHWARD. WHILE THIS WILL STILL
KEEP NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DRY...THE END RESULT WILL BE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WHERE THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY GETS PUSHED EASTWARD.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT SOME FORM OF TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE AREA IN THE WED TO THURS TIMEFRAME. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY COOLING HIGH TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG TO
CONTINUE. DANG
&&
.AVIATION...
LTL CHG IN OVERALL PATTERN FM 24 HOURS AGO...AND LTL CHG XPCTD THE
NXT 24 HRS AS STG HI PRES REMAINS OFF THE N CST OF NORCAL. GENL VFR
CONDS XPCTD XCP FOR MVFR VSBYS IN BR/HZ IN THE CNTL VLY S OF KSAC
AND LCL IFR VSBYS/CIGS S OF KMYV THRU ABT 17Z. LCL ELY WIND GUSTS
20-30 KTS ACRS THE HYR ELEVS OF THE NRN SIERNEV THIS MORNING.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSGX 141224
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
420 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SLOW COOLING
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES.
COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO A POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A SLOW COOLING
TREND TO THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW FOR LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT ADVISORY
STRENGTH WINDS IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS.
WITH WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...
OVERNIGHT MIXING HAS BEEN REDUCED WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES IN MORE LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ORANGE
COUNTY...THE SOUTHERN INLAND EMPIRE...AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS HAVE SEEN THE GREATEST COOLING FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MINOR DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GENERALLY
SEASONAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...ADVISORY
STRENGTH OFFSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A PATTERN TRANSITION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST BREAKS
DOWN. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TREMENDOUS RUN TO
RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS OFTEN SEEN DURING
SUCH TRANSITIONS. REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO COOLER ONSHORE FLOW WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
141000Z...LOCAL GUSTY NE WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL PRODUCE TURBULENCE
NEAR THE MTNS AND WIND SHEAR VCNTY KONT AND KSNA TODAY THROUGH THU.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE...MACKECHNIE
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 141206
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
400 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST ITEM OF
THE DAY IS WILL WE SEE MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES?
NEARLY ALL REPORTING STATIONS ARE RUNNING MUCH COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO WITH LIGHTER WINDS THIS MORNING. THINGS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
TYPICAL WITH SANTA ROSA CURRENTLY 35 WITH FOG BEING REPORTED. SKIES
ARE CLEAR ALTHOUGH REDUCED VSBYS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. LARGE SCALE GRADIENTS FEATURE A FLAT GRADIENT FROM ACV-SFO
WITH 4 MB FROM SFO-SBA. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT FROM WMC-SFO IS 9 MB
AFTER BEING 11-12 MB YESTERDAY. THE AIR ALOFT IS STILL VERY WARM
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S STILL BEING REPORTED IN THE HILLS AT
AROUND 2000 FEET WITH VALLEY READINGS IN THE 30S...JUST YOUR USUAL
30 DEGREE GRADIENT IN THE VERTICAL AROUND HERE.
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOCAL DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL TODAY FROM THE VERY WARM WEATHER OF THE LAST TWO DAYS.
HOWEVER SINCE RECORDS WERE BROKEN BY SUCH A LARGE DEGREE...EVEN
FORECASTING A COOLING TREND MAY KEEP SOME SITES IN RECORD
TERRITORY. RELATIVELY SPEAKING THE RECORDS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE NOT
THAT WARM. FOR MOST OF THE SITES AROUND THE BAY AREA JUST WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PUTS YOU INTO RECORD TERRITORY. SO
BELIEVE THAT MANY OF THE TEMPS TODAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF RECORD HIGHS.
TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF RECORD POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH THE
PATTERN JUST DOESN`T CHANGE TOO MUCH EVEN INTO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT 850 MB BUT TEMPS WILL STILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH A 588 DM HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER CRESCENT CITY.
THE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WONT REALLY BE REPLACED UNTIL SUNDAY SO
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THEN WITH ONLY A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS
WITH EACH PASSING NIGHT.
THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE LARGE SCALE WEST COAST
RIDGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF A PATTERN
CHANGE BEING SEEN YET.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
AREA TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO
THE COAST CONTINUE TO RUN IN EXCESS OF 10MB PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE
DRYING/WARMING ALONG WITH EASTERLY COMPONENTS OF WIND THROUGH PASSES
AND CANYONS AND SOME TURBULENCE WITH SUCH FLOW. LOCALIZED VSBYS
RESTRICTED BY FOG TO LESS THAN 2SM AND OCNL LIFR 1/2SM TIL 16Z
VICINITY OF KSTS AND EAST BAY VALLEYS LOCALES...OTHERWISE CAVU.
AERODROME WIND FORECASTS IN THE AREA GENERALLY LIGHT WITH NE TO SE
WINDS OCNL TO 10 KTS. FOR KSFO AND IMMEDIATE ENVIRONS CAVU CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS VARIABLE TO SOUTHEAST AT OR BELOW 8 KTS.
&&
.CLIMO...RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 14TH.
CITY: FORECAST RECORD YEAR
HIGH HIGH OF RECORD
-------------------------------------------------
NAPA 67 72 1924
OAKLAND CITY 69 67 1975
OAKLAND AIRPORT 66 64 1948
SFO AIRPORT 67 67 1948
SF CITY 67 66 1967
SAN JOSE 72 68 1988
SAN RAFAEL 67 68 1967
SANTA ROSA 68 70 1924
KING CITY 79 88 1915
MONTEREY 75 75 1975
SALINAS 79 76 1967
SANTA CRUZ 74 81 1975
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/CLIMO: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: GUDGEL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 141125 CCB
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 AM MST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THE REST
OF THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY
FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THEN...BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST IS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT AREAS
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. IT WAS GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO LESS WIND COMPARED WITH EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EAST NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO WASHINGTON STATE THIS
WEEKEND...EAST TO IDAHO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY LATE MONDAY...AND THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BRING SOME BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS HIGH
IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AS STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 141121 CCA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 AM MST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THE REST
OF THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY
FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...
MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT AREAS
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. IT WAS GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO LESS WIND COMPARED WITH EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EAST NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO WASHINGTON STATE THIS
WEEKEND...EAST TO IDAHO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY LATE MONDAY...AND THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AS STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE
NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...MAINLY TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25
MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ROGERS
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 141111
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 AM MST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE WEST COAST THE REST
OF THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY
FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WILL RESULT IN CLEAR NIGHTS AND
SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WEATHER FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...
MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT AREAS
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. IT WAS GENERALLY
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO LESS WIND COMPARED WITH EARLY
YESTERDAY MORNING. WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT DOWNSLOPE OR CALM WELL
BEFORE SUNRISE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED WEST OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND WAS MOVING ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EAST NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 7 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO WASHINGTON STATE THIS
WEEKEND...EAST TO IDAHO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY LATE MONDAY...AND THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY TUESDAY.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES NORTH...A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...THE POSITION BECOMES QUESTIONABLE...BUT IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
LOW WILL BE SO WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO NOTICEABLE EFFECT AS CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...SUNDAY...AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR SOUTHEAST CA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AREAS...
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KBLH...AND KIPL AIRFIELDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 12 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z THU.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL GENERATE WINDS
FAVORING THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH LOCAL BREEZINESS FROM TIME
TO TIME...MAINLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...CB/ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KLOX 141111
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
312 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ABOUT 4.5 MB FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE BIG CHANGE IS THE WEST TO EAST ONSHORE TREND OF 2 MB. WITHOUT
MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND NO THERMAL SUPPORT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LOW GRADE WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA MONICAS AND ALSO SOME 15
TO 25 MPH EAST WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS.
THICKNESSES FALL A LITTLE SO LOOK FOR SOME INTERIOR COOLING. VLY
TEMPS WILL BE WARM WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW A LITTLE LESS
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLING. THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL BE THE TRICKIEST FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE
SEABREEZES TODAY. SOME AREAS RIGHT AT THE COAST WILL SEE 10 TO 15
DEGREE DROPS IN TEMPS WHILE OTHER PLACES MAY SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS
ARRIVE BEFORE NOON. STILL IT WILL BE WARM AND ONE OR TWO RECORDS MAY
FALL.
THE VERY STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THERE REALLY SHOULD
BE NO CHANGE. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA MONICAS
WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER AT NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAYS WITH AGAIN THE GREATEST VARIABILITY OVER THE
COASTS WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE FIGHTING THE SEABREEZE.
ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST SETTING UP A
FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A FEW COAST AND VLY ZONES MAY NEED
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES WHEN THIS UPPER SUPPORT KICKS IN.
OVERALL HGTS AND THKNS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH
AND TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF THE
COASTAL SITES WHERE THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD WARM A FEW
LOCATIONS.
LOW HUMIDITIES AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER HIGH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH AGREE THAT THE PATTERN
WILL ACTUALLY AMPLIFY FURTHER. SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH CRAWLS INTO
THE PAC NW WHILE A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOCAL (CUTTING OFF
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WIND). BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH WITH 588 HGTS
IS ACTUALLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE AN EQUALLY SHARP TROF WILL
PLAGUE THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE
SKIES CLEAR BUT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WINDS SIMPLY IS NOT THERE
AND THERE SHOULD ONLY BE LOCAL CANYON WINDS. TEMPS WILL COOL BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
FINALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE FALL OVER TO THE EAST AND
ONSHORE FLOW SLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. THE EC IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS. BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
14/1100Z.
EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 20Z FOR KBUR...KVNY AND POSSIBLY KOXR.
KLAX...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
KBUR...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH
20Z.
&&
.MARINE/SURF...A LONG PERIOD WNW SWELL WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL COAST FRIDAY...AND THEN REACH THE SO CAL BIGHT BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS SWELL SHOULD CREATE SURF 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE FAVORED
WEST FACING BEACHES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH LARGEST SETS TO
8-10 FEET LIKELY PEAKING AT VENTURA BY SATURDAY. AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION WILL ALSO SEE A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SURF BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SETS 8 TO 12 FEET LIKELY WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER SETS
ON SATURDAY. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY. IF MODELS
PERSIST WITH THIS PATTERN...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KREV 141057
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG RIDGE OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS
OF ERN CA WHERE SOME SITES MAY REACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY. SEE
LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT /PNSREV/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST BY
FRIDAY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW TRENDS MORE TOWARD THE EAST...THE
EXACT DIRECTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION AND
ORIENTATION OF RIDGE AXIS WITH RESPECT TO AREA OF RELATIVELY LOWER
500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS SRN CA. THIS SLIGHT CHANGE IN FLOW PATTERN MAY
BRING SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME INCREASE IN
CIRRUS WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE...OTHERWISE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS IN VALLEYS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA WITH HUMIDITY AT
MOST RIDGE SITES REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOWER TEENS
THRU FRIDAY. MJD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO NO
MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
STABLE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN BY
MONDAY...BUT THE OVERALL FEATURES OF RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BEYOND TUESDAY THE 20TH...NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE HORIZON
IN TERMS OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. MODELS PUSH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHICH MAKES THE OVERALL PATTERN
MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE MODELS REDEVELOP THE RIDGE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST AND 140W AND FORCE PACIFIC MOISTURE/ENERGY TO RIDE UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OR TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON SOME DETAILS...BUT BRING A WEAK SYSTEM DOWN FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG. PERIODS OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SIERRA WITH STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND UTAH.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KLOL AND SHOULD DEVELOP AT KTRK EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 16-17Z. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KEKA 141053
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
253 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BEAUTIFUL JANUARY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR TODAY...WITH ALL
BUT THE COOLEST LOCATIONS IN THE TRINITY RIVER VALLEY REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE IN INLAND
VALLEYS IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS. WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY FACILITATE A RETURN OF NIGHT AND
MORNING STRATUS TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALLEY FOG CONTINUING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKENING FRONT TO APPROACH THE PAC NW LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
INTO THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE ON TUESDAY...AND HAVE INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. ALM
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZE
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MS
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BUOYS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MIXED SWELL...A SHORT PERIOD FROM THE NORTH
AND A LONG PERIOD FROM THE WEST. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SWELL IS
SUBSIDING...HAVE NOT MENTIONED IT IN TODAYS FORECAST. THE LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SWELL THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THOUGH IT WILL BE LOW...SUBSIDING TO NEAR 2 FT ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY A NEW LONG PERIOD WAVE TRAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS. IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 10 FEET FRIDAY EVENING AND
MAINTAIN THAT HEIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MS
&&
.CLIMATE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. SELECTED RECORD AND FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE BELOW.
SITE JAN 14 JAN 15
RECORD/FORECAST RECORD/FORECAST
CRESCENT CITY........65/66 66/64
ORICK................62/66 64/65
KLAMATH..............65/65 68/64
EUREKA...............65/65 67/62
WEAVERVILLE..........60/60 64/61
WILLOW CREEK.........64/60 64/61
WILLITS..............66/65 65/64
UKIAH................75/75 75/75
FORT BRAGG...........65/72 65/69
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KLOX 141032
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.SHORT TERM...
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ARE ABOUT 4.5 MB FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE BIG CHANGE IS THE WEST TO EAST ONSHORE TREND OF 2 MB. WITHOUT
MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND NO THERMAL SUPPORT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LOW GRADE WIND
ADVISORY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA MONICAS AND ALSO SOME 15
TO 25 MPH EAST WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS.
THICKNESSES FALL A LITTLE SO LOOK FOR SOME INTERIOR COOLING. VLY
TEMPS WILL BE WARM WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW A LITTLE LESS
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLING. THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL BE THE TRICKIEST FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE
SEABREEZES TODAY. SOME AREAS RIGHT AT THE COAST WILL SEE 10 TO 15
DEGREE DROPS IN TEMPS WHILE OTHER PLACES MAY SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS
ARRIVE BEFORE NOON. STILL IT WILL BE WARM AND ONE OR TWO RECORDS MAY
FALL.
THE VERY STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY AND THERE REALLY SHOULD
BE NO CHANGE. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SANTA MONICAS
WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER AT NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAYS WITH AGAIN THE GREATEST VARIABILITY OVER THE
COASTS WHERE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE FIGHTING THE SEABREEZE.
ON FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST SETTING UP A
FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. A FEW COAST AND VLY ZONES MAY NEED
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES WHEN THIS UPPER SUPPORT KICKS IN.
OVERALL HGTS AND THKNS AND OFFSHORE FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH
AND TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF THE
COASTAL SITES WHERE THE INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD WARM A FEW
LOCATIONS.
LOW HUMIDITIES AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE FIRE DANGER HIGH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH AGREE THAT THE PATTERN
WILL ACTUALLY AMPLIFY FURTHER. SATURDAY THE UPPER HIGH CRAWLS INTO
THE PAC NW WHILE A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES OVER SOCAL (CUTTING OFF
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WIND). BY SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH WITH 588 HGTS
IS ACTUALLY IN BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE AN EQUALLY SHARP TROF WILL
PLAGUE THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE
SKIES CLEAR BUT THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE WINDS SIMPLY IS NOT THERE
AND THERE SHOULD ONLY BE LOCAL CANYON WINDS. TEMPS WILL COOL BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
FINALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE FALL OVER TO THE EAST AND
ONSHORE FLOW SLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. THE EC IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS. BUT FOR NOW WILL
JUST BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
14/1100Z.
EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 20Z FOR KBUR...KVNY AND POSSIBLY KOXR.
KLAX...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
KBUR...EXPECT CAVU CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH
20Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...KAPLAN
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KHNX 140958
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
158 AM PST WED JAN 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...STAGNANT PATTERN CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AS THE VERY STRONG CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF EUREKA.
MEANWHILE OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THE USUAL NIGHTLY FOG
FORMATION HAS BEGUN THIS TIME OVER NORTHERN KINGS COUNTY. WIND
PROFILERS AT CHOWCHILLA AND LOST HILLS INDICATE LIMITED TO NO
INVERSION AT THIS HOUR THUS THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN IN PATCHES OR AN
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW
PERSISTANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH
ANCHORED OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST AND THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
CONTINUE TO PROJECT A REX BLOCK PATTERN AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION THUS THE "BIG DRY"
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG BETWEEN UNTIL 20Z.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THRU 12Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14 2009... UNHEALTHY IN KERN COUNTY.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 140658
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1055 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE RECORD
BREAKING DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MERCURY ROSE INTO THE MID
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY AREA WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA REPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70 TO MID
80S. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AS A WHOLE WERE RUNNING COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH NORTH BAY LOCATIONS FINISHING OFF THE DAY AS MUCH AS
12 DEGREES COOLER AND HIGHS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA SOUTH JUST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER RECORDS FELL EVERYWHERE. IN ALL 14 NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WERE SET AND 3 ALL TIME NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WERE ESTABLISHED FOR JANUARY. OAKLAND DOWNTOWN AS WELL
AS OAKLAND AND SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS SET NEW ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY. OAKLAND DOWNTOWN FINISHED THE
DAY OFF 12 DEGREES WARMER THEN THE PREVIOUSLY HELD HIGH FOR TODAY
OBLITERATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET BACK IN 2006.
(SEE SFORERMTR SXUS76 KMTR FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF RECORDS).
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAINTAINING
CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUING THE WARM/DRY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 11.1 MB FROM WMC-SFO...
4 MB WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS A CLEAR SIGN OF THE GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW. MODELS ALL POINT TO THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPS. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE WEEK PROGRESS WHILE MANAGING TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:55 PM PST TUESDAY...INCREASED HUMIDITIES ARE
LEADING TO A PATCH OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT KSTS. RECENTLY AMENDED THE
TAF FOR IFR INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 140530
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR INTERIOR NORCAL AS EVIDENT BY THE LONG
LIST OF RECORD MAX TEMPS MENTIONED IN THE RERSTO. MSAS DATA SHOWING
1038 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NE CAL WITH SECONDARY 1040 MB CENTER OVER
WESTERN NEVADA AND 1024 MB THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTH TO EAST SURFACE WIND OVER RIDGES AND THROUGH FAVORABLY
ORIENTED GAPS AND CANYONS IN THE COASTAL RANGE AND WEST SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS EVENING RUNNING COOLER AND HUMIDITIES HIGHER
THAN 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL SAC VALLEY SO
MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM
ABOUT MARYSVILLE SOUTHWARD.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER HIGH REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY OFF THE NORCAL COAST. CLOSED
UPPER LOW PROGGED OFF BAJA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK TURNING FLOW
ALOFT OVER NORCAL MORE OFFSHORE. EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL RECORDS
MAX TEMPS SET IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH TO EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND PHASES WITH FLOW
ALOFT.
PCH
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE FORMING A REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
NATION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEFLECT SYSTEMS NORTHWARD
FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES AND NORTHEAST ORIENTED CANYONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
MODELS SHOW APPROACHING TROUGH IN TUESDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. THIS WOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OR MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. VALLEY FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOST TERMINALS EXPERIENCING VFR CONDS THIS HOUR...LOCAL MVFR AND IFR
VSBYS IN PARTS OF THE VALLEY DUE TO HZ/BR FROM THE CENTRAL SAC
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN SAC AND NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEYS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COULD CAUSE LOCALLY
DENSE VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
FROM 12-18Z. FOG SHOULD IMPROVE NEAR 18Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDS
LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
MAINTAINS VFR CONDS FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN CWA. JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 140530
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
930 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE RECORD
BREAKING DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MERCURY ROSE INTO THE MID
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY AREA WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA REPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70 TO MID
80S. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AS A WHOLE WERE RUNNING COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH NORTH BAY LOCATIONS FINISHING OFF THE DAY AS MUCH AS
12 DEGREES COOLER AND HIGHS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA SOUTH JUST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER RECORDS FELL EVERYWHERE. IN ALL 14 NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WERE SET AND 3 ALL TIME NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WERE ESTABLISHED FOR JANUARY. OAKLAND DOWNTOWN AS WELL
AS OAKLAND AND SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS SET NEW ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY. OAKLAND DOWNTOWN FINISHED THE
DAY OFF 12 DEGREES WARMER THEN THE PREVIOUSLY HELD HIGH FOR TODAY
OBLITERATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET BACK IN 2006.
(SEE SFORERMTR SXUS76 KMTR FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF RECORDS).
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAINTAINING
CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUING THE WARM/DRY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 11.1 MB FROM WMC-SFO...
4 MB WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS A CLEAR SIGN OF THE GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW. MODELS ALL POINT TO THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPS. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE WEEK PROGRESS WHILE MANAGING TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:30 PM PST TUESDAY...VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 140516
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
916 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR. HIGHS IN THE VALLEY GENERALLY TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 60S
TODAY WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THE STABLE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME AND A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN LOW LYING AREAS
DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MORNING TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAYS 41...43...99 AND 198 FROM
FROM AROUND FRESNO TO LEMOORE TO VISALIA. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
.FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE US BY
SATURDAY. REX BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP FOR MORE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EAST TO NE FLOW MAY
PROVIDE SOME WIND ACROSS THE SIERRA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN UPPER RIDGE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES HZ/BR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF IFR FG BETWEEN 08Z-20Z. ELSEWHERE VFR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THRU 06Z THURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14 2009... UNHEALTHY IN KERN COUNTY.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DCH/JDB
AVN/FW...BINGHAM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KHNX 140516
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
916 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR. HIGHS IN THE VALLEY GENERALLY TOPPED OUT IN THE MID 60S
TODAY WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THE STABLE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME AND A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN LOW LYING AREAS
DOWN THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY
AFFECT MORNING TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAYS 41...43...99 AND 198 FROM
FROM AROUND FRESNO TO LEMOORE TO VISALIA. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
.FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE WITH A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE US BY
SATURDAY. REX BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP FOR MORE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EAST TO NE FLOW MAY
PROVIDE SOME WIND ACROSS THE SIERRA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN UPPER RIDGE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES HZ/BR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF IFR FG BETWEEN 08Z-20Z. ELSEWHERE VFR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THRU 06Z THURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JANUARY 14 2009... UNHEALTHY IN KERN COUNTY.
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KINGS... MADERA...
MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS
PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DCH/JDB
AVN/FW...BINGHAM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 140458
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE NOT UNCOMMON...IN AUGUST. BUT THIS
IS JANUARY! FIVE STATIONS HAD LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 70 IN
ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THE SANTA ANA WINDS KEPT TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
IN THE WINDY AREAS. THE SANTA ANA FIRE STATION SET ITS ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY WITH A LOW
OF 73. THE WARM START TO THE DAY LED TO FIVE NEW RECORD HIGHS. ALL
THE DETAILS OF THIS RECORD BREAKING DAY ARE HEADLINED ON OUR WEB
PAGE IN THE "RECORD EVENT REPORT".
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM. ALREADY AT 8 PM
ONLY RIVERSIDE WAS ABOVE 70. TOMORROW HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS. THEN IT WILL START TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS. WHILE BARELY
NOTICEABLE AT FIRST...THIS COOLING TREND WILL GAIN MOMENTUM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BE MORE NOTICEABLE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
HIGH BUCKLES AND MOVES EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE
RETURNED AND OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO JANUARY LEVELS THAN
AUGUST LEVELS.
DRY NOTE: AFTER THE DECEMBER STORMS THE SEASONAL RAIN TOTAL WAS 3.16
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AT LINDBERGH FIELD. THE DRY WEATHER SINCE THEN
HAS CUT THAT SURPLUS DOWN TO 2.07 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...140330Z
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE AS MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 20-30 KT BELOW FL130 LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED...PRODUCING UP
AND DOWNDRAFTS OVER AND IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 140458
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE NOT UNCOMMON...IN AUGUST. BUT THIS
IS JANUARY! FIVE STATIONS HAD LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 70 IN
ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THE SANTA ANA WINDS KEPT TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
IN THE WINDY AREAS. THE SANTA ANA FIRE STATION SET ITS ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY WITH A LOW
OF 73. THE WARM START TO THE DAY LED TO FIVE NEW RECORD HIGHS. ALL
THE DETAILS OF THIS RECORD BREAKING DAY ARE HEADLINED ON OUR WEB
PAGE IN THE "RECORD EVENT REPORT".
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM. ALREADY AT 8 PM
ONLY RIVERSIDE WAS ABOVE 70. TOMORROW HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS. THEN IT WILL START TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS. WHILE BARELY
NOTICEABLE AT FIRST...THIS COOLING TREND WILL GAIN MOMENTUM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BE MORE NOTICEABLE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
HIGH BUCKLES AND MOVES EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE
RETURNED AND OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO JANUARY LEVELS THAN
AUGUST LEVELS.
DRY NOTE: AFTER THE DECEMBER STORMS THE SEASONAL RAIN TOTAL WAS 3.16
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AT LINDBERGH FIELD. THE DRY WEATHER SINCE THEN
HAS CUT THAT SURPLUS DOWN TO 2.07 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...140330Z
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE AS MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 20-30 KT BELOW FL130 LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED...PRODUCING UP
AND DOWNDRAFTS OVER AND IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 140457
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE NOT UNCOMMON...IN AUGUST. BUT THIS
IS JANUARY! FIVE STATIONS HAD LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 70 IN
ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THE SANTA ANA WINDS KEPT TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
IN THE WINDY AREAS. THE SANTA ANA FIRE STATION SET IS ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY WITH A LOW
OF 73. THE WARM START TO THE DAY LED TO FIVE NEW RECORD HIGHS. ALL
THE DETAILS OF THIS RECORD BREAKING DAY ARE HEADLINED ON OUR WEB
PAGE IN THE "RECORD EVENT REPORT".
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM. ALREADY AT 8 PM
ONLY RIVERSIDE WAS ABOVE 70. TOMORROW HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS. THEN IT WILL START TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS. WHILE BARELY
NOTICEABLE AT FIRST...THIS COOLING TREND WILL GAIN MOMENTUM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BE MORE NOTICEABLE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
HIGH BUCKLES AND MOVES EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE
RETURNED AND OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO JANUARY LEVELS THAN
AUGUST LEVELS.
DRY NOTE: AFTER THE DECEMBER STORMS THE SEASONAL RAIN TOTAL WAS 3.16
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AT LINDBERGH FIELD. THE DRY WEATHER SINCE THEN
HAS CUT THAT SURPLUS DOWN TO 2.07 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...140330Z
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE AS MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 20-30 KT BELOW FL130 LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED...PRODUCING UP
AND DOWNDRAFTS OVER AND IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 140457
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
850 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH WEAKENS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE NOT UNCOMMON...IN AUGUST. BUT THIS
IS JANUARY! FIVE STATIONS HAD LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 70 IN
ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THE SANTA ANA WINDS KEPT TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
IN THE WINDY AREAS. THE SANTA ANA FIRE STATION SET IS ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY WITH A LOW
OF 73. THE WARM START TO THE DAY LED TO FIVE NEW RECORD HIGHS. ALL
THE DETAILS OF THIS RECORD BREAKING DAY ARE HEADLINED ON OUR WEB
PAGE IN THE "RECORD EVENT REPORT".
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM. ALREADY AT 8 PM
ONLY RIVERSIDE WAS ABOVE 70. TOMORROW HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW SPOTS. THEN IT WILL START TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS. WHILE BARELY
NOTICEABLE AT FIRST...THIS COOLING TREND WILL GAIN MOMENTUM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BE MORE NOTICEABLE NEXT WEEK WHEN THE
HIGH BUCKLES AND MOVES EAST. BY WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL HAVE
RETURNED AND OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO JANUARY LEVELS THAN
AUGUST LEVELS.
DRY NOTE: AFTER THE DECEMBER STORMS THE SEASONAL RAIN TOTAL WAS 3.16
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL AT LINDBERGH FIELD. THE DRY WEATHER SINCE THEN
HAS CUT THAT SURPLUS DOWN TO 2.07 INCHES.
&&
.AVIATION...140330Z
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE AS MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS.
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 20-30 KT BELOW FL130 LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WED...PRODUCING UP
AND DOWNDRAFTS OVER AND IN THE LEE OF THE MTNS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 140440
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
840 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:40 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE RECORD
BREAKING DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MERCURY ROSE INTO THE MID
60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY AREA WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE MONTEREY BAY AREA REPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70 TO MID
80S. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AS A WHOLE WERE RUNNING COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH NORTH BAY LOCATIONS FINISHING OFF THE DAY AS MUCH AS
12 DEGREES COOLER AND HIGHS SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA SOUTH JUST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER RECORDS FELL EVERYWHERE. IN ALL 14 NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WERE SET AND 3 ALL TIME NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE WERE ESTABLISHED FOR JANUARY. OAKLAND DOWNTOWN AS WELL
AS OAKLAND AND SAN FRANCISCO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS SET NEW ALL TIME
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY. OAKLAND DOWNTOWN FINISHED THE
DAY OFF 12 DEGREES WARMER THEN THE PREVIOUSLY HELD HIGH FOR TODAY
OBLITERATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD SET BACK IN 2006.
(SEE SFORERMTR SXUS76 KMTR FOR A COMPLETE LIST OF RECORDS).
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MAINTAINING
CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUING THE WARM/DRY OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY 11.1 MB FROM WMC-SFO...
4 MB WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS A CLEAR SIGN OF THE GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED
OFFSHORE FLOW. MODELS ALL POINT TO THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT
AND LOWER 850 MB TEMPS. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY COOL AS
THE WEEK PROGRESS WHILE MANAGING TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
MODELS REMAIN DRY WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR IS
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: CW
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL/CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 140435
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
835 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING
FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED
ADVISORY LEVEL REPORTS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE ADVISORY SEEMS
TO WORKING OUT FINE THIS EVENING. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS BOTH NAM-WRF AND 13-KM RUC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE WINDS ABOUT THIS TIME...BUT 13-KM
RUC DOES STRENGTHEN WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM-WRF BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY STAY ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS BETWEEN
KLAX-KDAG AT -5.2 MB AND FORECAST BY THE NAM-WRF AND GFS TO
TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND ADVISORY WILL LEFT IN
EFFECT FOR THE CURRENT TIME. WINDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.
MORE RECORD TEMPERATURE MARKS WERE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY...BUT AIR
MASS DID STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
MONDAYS LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW ALLOWED THE AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TO WARM.
SANTA MARIA SET A MONTHLY RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT 88
DEGREES...AND PASO ROBLES BLEW OUT THE OLD RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR
DAY BY 8 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE LATEST NAM-WRF 950 MB TEMPERATURES
INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 TO 1 DEGREE CELSIUS TOO WARM FOR THE LATEST
RUN AND THIS COULD PLAY INTO AN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT PACKAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM GOOD FOR COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WITH THIS CORRECTION FOR INITIALIZATION TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT...KEEPING PERSISTENCE AS THE BEST GUESS. AREAS INLAND
AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL BE THE PROBLEM AREAS. FOR THE
VALLEYS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE
AREA SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE AIR MASS STAGNATES. HOWEVER...THE
NAM-WRF INDICATES THAT 950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...MOST VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT 950 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...BY ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GFS ALSO
SEEMS TO BE HEDGING THE WAY OF THE NAM-WRF AS WELL. CURRENT
SURFACE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KSMX-KLAS AND KSMX-KBFL ARE TRENDING
ONSHORE CURRENTLY ADDING SOME CONFUSION INTO THE MIX. AN UPDATE
WILL BE PERFORMED FOR TEMPERATURES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT TWO TO THREE
DEGREES...BUT THE NEXT SHIFT WILL BE BRIEFED ABOUT INLAND
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS STRENGTHENING...WITH THE BEST
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY STRONG
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. MODEL DO NOT SEEMS
EXCITED ABOUT THE SURFACE GRADIENTS CURRENTLY...AND 850 MB THERMAL
GRADIENTS SEEMS A BIT WEAKER THAN PAST SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PLENTY
OF TIME EXISTS FOR MODELS TO SEPARATE THIS ISSUE OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. GRADIENTS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WITH
WINDS STILL BLOWING AT NOON TODAY I EXTENDED THE VALLEY AND COAST
ADVISORIES UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW GRADE ADVISORIES AGAIN
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FOR THE MOUNTAINS I EXPECT WINDS
WILL AT LEAST REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST OF THIS WEEK AND FOR
THAT REASON I`VE EXTENDED THOSE ADVISORIES THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WED, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE A
LITTLE DROP DUE TO THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE, MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 80S AGAIN. ON THU AND FRI,
ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES, AIRMASS ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY SO
I DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH,
ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE LA/VTU MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICAS, THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS, VERY LOW RH`S, AND CRITICALLY LOW FUEL MOISTURES (AS
MEASURED BY THE LOCAL FIRE AGENCIES) WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS IF
WINDS PICK UP AS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...STILL PRETTY STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AIRMASS ALSO COOLS SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY,
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FINALLY SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
ALLOWING A TROF TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH NEITHER
MODEL INDICATES ANY RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A COOLER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...14/0107Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE
AT KVNY AND KBUR.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT OF OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
&&
$$
HALL/WOFFORD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KLOX 140435
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
835 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING
FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED
ADVISORY LEVEL REPORTS. AS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE ADVISORY SEEMS
TO WORKING OUT FINE THIS EVENING. SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS BOTH NAM-WRF AND 13-KM RUC BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE WINDS ABOUT THIS TIME...BUT 13-KM
RUC DOES STRENGTHEN WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NAM-WRF BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY STAY ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE GRADIENTS BETWEEN
KLAX-KDAG AT -5.2 MB AND FORECAST BY THE NAM-WRF AND GFS TO
TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND ADVISORY WILL LEFT IN
EFFECT FOR THE CURRENT TIME. WINDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.
MORE RECORD TEMPERATURE MARKS WERE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY...BUT AIR
MASS DID STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
MONDAYS LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...AND
OFFSHORE FLOW ALLOWED THE AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TO WARM.
SANTA MARIA SET A MONTHLY RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY AT 88
DEGREES...AND PASO ROBLES BLEW OUT THE OLD RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR
DAY BY 8 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE LATEST NAM-WRF 950 MB TEMPERATURES
INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 TO 1 DEGREE CELSIUS TOO WARM FOR THE LATEST
RUN AND THIS COULD PLAY INTO AN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT PACKAGE TEMPERATURES SEEM GOOD FOR COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION WITH THIS CORRECTION FOR INITIALIZATION TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT...KEEPING PERSISTENCE AS THE BEST GUESS. AREAS INLAND
AND NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL BE THE PROBLEM AREAS. FOR THE
VALLEYS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT THE
AREA SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY AS THE AIR MASS STAGNATES. HOWEVER...THE
NAM-WRF INDICATES THAT 950 MB TEMPERATURES COOL ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY...MOST VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING THAT 950 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER...BY ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GFS ALSO
SEEMS TO BE HEDGING THE WAY OF THE NAM-WRF AS WELL. CURRENT
SURFACE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KSMX-KLAS AND KSMX-KBFL ARE TRENDING
ONSHORE CURRENTLY ADDING SOME CONFUSION INTO THE MIX. AN UPDATE
WILL BE PERFORMED FOR TEMPERATURES NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAYS TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT TWO TO THREE
DEGREES...BUT THE NEXT SHIFT WILL BE BRIEFED ABOUT INLAND
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS STRENGTHENING...WITH THE BEST
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY STRONG
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. MODEL DO NOT SEEMS
EXCITED ABOUT THE SURFACE GRADIENTS CURRENTLY...AND 850 MB THERMAL
GRADIENTS SEEMS A BIT WEAKER THAN PAST SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...PLENTY
OF TIME EXISTS FOR MODELS TO SEPARATE THIS ISSUE OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. GRADIENTS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WITH
WINDS STILL BLOWING AT NOON TODAY I EXTENDED THE VALLEY AND COAST
ADVISORIES UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW GRADE ADVISORIES AGAIN
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FOR THE MOUNTAINS I EXPECT WINDS
WILL AT LEAST REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST OF THIS WEEK AND FOR
THAT REASON I`VE EXTENDED THOSE ADVISORIES THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WED, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE A
LITTLE DROP DUE TO THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE, MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 80S AGAIN. ON THU AND FRI,
ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES, AIRMASS ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY SO
I DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH,
ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE LA/VTU MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICAS, THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS, VERY LOW RH`S, AND CRITICALLY LOW FUEL MOISTURES (AS
MEASURED BY THE LOCAL FIRE AGENCIES) WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS IF
WINDS PICK UP AS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...STILL PRETTY STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AIRMASS ALSO COOLS SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY,
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FINALLY SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
ALLOWING A TROF TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH NEITHER
MODEL INDICATES ANY RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A COOLER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...14/0107Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE
AT KVNY AND KBUR.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT OF OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
&&
$$
HALL/WOFFORD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 140323
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
825 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND UTAH WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT TIMES MAINLY DOWN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMEPRATURES. IN FACT VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES THIS WEEKEND...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP A VERY
WEAK CUTOFF LOW BY FRIDAY EVENING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA. BOTH
MODELS AGAIN DEVELOP ANOTHER SIMILAR SHORT WAVE SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES
ARE SO WEAK AND BENIGN THAT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED...JUST AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR SOUTHEAST CA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AREAS...
INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KBLH...AND KIPL AIRFIELDS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 12 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z THU.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL GENERATE WINDS
FAVORING THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH LOCAL BREEZINESS FROM TIME
TO TIME...MAINLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...CB/ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KLOX 140107 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
507 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. GRADIENTS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WITH
WINDS STILL BLOWING AT NOON TODAY I EXTENDED THE VALLEY AND COAST
ADVISORIES UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW GRADE ADVISORIES AGAIN
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FOR THE MOUNTAINS I EXPECT WINDS
WILL AT LEAST REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA MOST OF THIS WEEK AND FOR
THAT REASON I`VE EXTENDED THOSE ADVISORIES THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WED, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE A
LITTLE DROP DUE TO THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE, MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 80S AGAIN. ON THU AND FRI,
ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES, AIRMASS ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY SO
I DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH,
ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE LA/VTU MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICAS, THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS, VERY LOW RH`S, AND CRITICALLY LOW FUEL MOISTURES (AS
MEASURED BY THE LOCAL FIRE AGENCIES) WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS IF
WINDS PICK UP AS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...STILL PRETTY STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AIRMASS ALSO COOLS SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY,
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FINALLY SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
ALLOWING A TROF TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH NEITHER
MODEL INDICATES ANY RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A COOLER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...14/0107Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE
AT KVNY AND KBUR.
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO
WIND ISSUES.
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
20 PERCENT OF OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
TURBULENCE.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...HALL
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 132347
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM WINTER DAY WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST. AS OF 3 PM REDDING BROKE THE
RECORD OF 76 WITH A HIGH OF 77 AND RED BLUFF BROKE THE RECORD OF 72
WITH A HIGH OF 78 AND DOWNTOWN SACRAMENTO BROKE THE RECORD OF 65
WITH A HIGH OF 66 AND SACRAMENTO EXECUTIVE BROKE THE RECORD OF 64
WITH A HIGH OF 66 AND MODESTO HAS TIED THEIR RECORD OF 67. BLUE
CANYON WAS JUST SHY OF 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH OF 69.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TOMORROW WITH NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WERE LIGHTER TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY. VACAVILLE...FAIRFIELD...MARYSVILLE....SACRAMENTO
INTERNATIONAL WERE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE MORNINGS WITH LIGHT
WINDS FROM AROUND MARYSVILLE AND SOUTH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE AIRMASS BUT STRONGER
WINDS. THE AIRMASS COOLS MORE ON FRIDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EDGE OF THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MARYSVILLE AND SOUTH
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE FORMING A REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
NATION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEFLECT SYSTEMS NORTHWARD
FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES AND NORTHEAST ORIENTED CANYONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
MODELS SHOW APPROACHING TROUGH IN TUESDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. THIS WOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND ENERGY DIVING
SOUTH OR MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. VALLEY FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE.
&&
.AVIATION...
RETURNING FOG IS MAIN AVIATION ISSUE FOR TONIGHT. HZ/BR ARE BRINGING
LOCAL MVFR VISBYS IN THE VALLEY FROM KOVE SOUTHWARD. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...WITH THICKEST FOG OVER THE NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THAT AREA FREE OF FOG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FOG WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY AROUND 18Z WITH MVFR BR LINGERING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 132335
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
330 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS
THE DISTRICT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. EVEN THOUGH THE
TEMPS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY IN THE NORTH BAY (DUE TO
THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS) THEY ARE STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RECORDS WERE BROKEN EARLIER THIS MORNING IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO...DOWNTOWN OAKLAND...AND OAKLAND AIRPORT.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER RECORD REPORT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
RECORD TEMPS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW STILL CONTINUE...BUT IT IS WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE ARCATA-SFO GRADIENT IS DOWN TO 1.6 MB COMPARED
TO 5.3 MB YESTERDAY AND THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT IS 10.0 MB COMPARED TO
12.7 MB YESTERDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE STRONG RIDGE OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH
THE DRY BL HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS. LATER
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS NORTH
ALLOWING SOME FOG TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS THROUGH
THE DELTA. ALSO...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED IN
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 12Z EURO BRINGS A WEAK TROF TO
THE COAST...WHICH SPLITS AS IT APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER TROF LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE 18Z GFS ALSO SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT SHOWS A TROF DIVING OUT OF CANADA SW TO THE CA COAST.
SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL AS LITTLE PRIOR
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT WILL WAIT FOR MORE RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE FCST.
BOTTOM LINE IS WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME
MODEST COOLING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 PM PST TUESDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR IS
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL/CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KEKA 132325
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
331 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED DRY WX AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NW CA. THIS
WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TO
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS IN THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY
MORNINGS. BC
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AXIS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOW SHIFT
EASTWARDS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL WORK TO WEAKEN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND FACILITATE A RETURN OF STRATUS TO THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
IN INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER INTERIOR AREAS. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
A WEAKENING FRONT TO APPROACH THE PAC NW ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
FOG IN INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. KL
&&
.MARINE...BUOYS ARE INDICATING A LIGHT MIXED SWELL IN THE WATERS
TODAY WITH A LONGER-PERIOD WNW SWELL AND A SHORT-PERIOD N SWELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG-PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 10 FEET ON FRIDAY. KL
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 132304
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
304 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PST TUESDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS
THE DISTRICT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. EVEN THOUGH THE
TEMPS ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY IN THE NORTH BAY (DUE TO
THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS) THEY ARE STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
RECORDS WERE BROKEN EARLIER THIS MORNING IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...
DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO...DOWNTOWN OAKLAND...AND OAKLAND AIRPORT.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER RECORD REPORT EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
RECORD TEMPS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW STILL CONTINUE...BUT IT IS WEAKER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE ARCATA-SFO GRADIENT IS DOWN TO 1.6 MB COMPARED
TO 5.3 MB YESTERDAY AND THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT IS 10.0 MB COMPARED TO
12.7 MB YESTERDAY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE STRONG RIDGE OFF THE NORTHERN
CA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENING. WITH
THE DRY BL HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS. LATER
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS NORTH
ALLOWING SOME FOG TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS THROUGH
THE DELTA. ALSO...TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED IN
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE 12Z EURO BRINGS A WEAK TROF TO
THE COAST...WHICH SPLITS AS IT APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER TROF LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE 18Z GFS ALSO SHIFTS THE RIDGE EAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT SHOWS A TROF DIVING OUT OF CANADA SW TO THE CA COAST.
SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL AS LITTLE PRIOR
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT WILL WAIT FOR MORE RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY
CHANGES TO THE FCST.
BOTTOM LINE IS WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME
MODEST COOLING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 AM PST TUESDAY...SFO-SAC GRADIENT REMAINS
OVER 1 MB THIS MORNING WHICH IS HELPING TO KEEP MOST WINDS EASTERLY
THIS MORNING. THE NAM SHOWS THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH BY 20Z WHILE
THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS THAT IT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 MB.
INCLINATION IS TO GO WITH THE NAM WHICH TENDS TO DO A BETTER JOB WITH
LOCAL PRESSURE PATTERNS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
MORE VARIABLE AROUND 20Z AND EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO A WEST TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 02Z WITH SPEEDS OF 8KT OR LESS. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY WHEN WINDS TO 45 KT WERE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...
CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOW MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WHICH HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT
GUSTS TODAY AND LIMIT LLWS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AROUND KSTS SO A TEMPO GROUP WAS
ADDED THERE. BOTTOM LINE IS VERY GOOD AVIATION WEATHER FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z EXPECTED.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC: MHS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KREV 132232
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SHORT TERM...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH RECORD HIGHS WITH 700 MB TEMPS 4 TO 6
DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL ALLOW MIDSLOPES AND VALLEYS IN THE SIERRA
THAT DO MIX OUT TO GET INTO THE MID 50S WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN
GETTING INTO THE 60S...ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGH
TEMPS NOT AS LIKELY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE SIERRA DUE TO
COLD AIR INVERSIONS NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX OUT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD IN LEESIDE VALLEYS AND TOP OUT IN THE MID
50S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF THERE WERE A MECHANISM TO
MIX THESE LEESIDE VALLEYS...SUCH AS WINDS...WE COULD POTENTIALLY
REACH RECORD HIGHS. HOWEVER...WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO DO SO.
CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING
IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR THE SIERRA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MIDSLOPES TO RIDGES WITH VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE. OVERALL...MILD TEMPS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. MILNE
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BIG BUBBLE...NO TROUBLE. MILD DAYS AND LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES BELOW RIDGETOPS (GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT) CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT A SLOW COOL DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WEAKENS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW HINT AT A WEAK SPLITTING SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO
THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE
HIGH CLOUDS A BIT AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE READY TO
GIVE UP ITS GRIP ON THE WEST BY THAT TIME.
TO MUSE WELL BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE
PATTERN MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT CIRCA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN
WESTERN RIDGE TRIES TO RETROGRADE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA/SW ALASKA.
TELECONNECTIONS INDICATE THAT EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE MEAN RIDGE
RETROGRADES (LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME) WILL MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN ANY CASE...TELECONNECTIONS
INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR ALL BUT A VERY SMALL PORTION OF THE REGION...VFR WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THE VFR/CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FZFG FOR KTRK
(90%+ CHANCE) AND PERHAPS KLOL (~40-50% CHANCE) FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 132213
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
215 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...DRY OFFSHORE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. GRADIENTS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WITH
WINDS STILL BLOWING AT NOON TODAY I EXTENDED THE VALLEY AND COAST
ADVISORIES UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW GRADE ADVISORIES AGAIN
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. FOR THE MOUNTAINS I EXPECT WINDS
WILL AT LEAST REACH ADVISORY CRITIERIA MOST OF THIS WEEK AND FOR
THAT REASON I`VE EXTENDED THOSE ADVISORIES THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WED, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE A
LITTLE DROP DUE TO THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE, MOST LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 80S AGAIN. ON THU AND FRI,
ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES, AIRMASS ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY SO
I DROPPED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES. STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH,
ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE LA/VTU MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICAS, THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS, VERY LOW RH`S, AND CRITICALLY LOW FUEL MOISTURES (AS
MEASURED BY THE LOCAL FIRE AGENCIES) WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER.
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE LA/VTU COAST AND VALLEYS IF
WINDS PICK UP AS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...STILL PRETTY STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AIRMASS ALSO COOLS SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY,
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FINALLY SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND
ALLOWING A TROF TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH NEITHER
MODEL INDICATES ANY RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
WILL BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A COOLER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...13/1800Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VALLEY TAFS OF KBUR AND KVNY WILL BE SUBJECT TO PERIODS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL 20Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AT KOXR THROUGH 23Z.
KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 20Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 132131 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
230 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND UTAH WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT TIMES MAINLY DOWN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENLY OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPRATURES. IN FACT VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE GREAT BASIN SURFACE
HIGH WILL KEEP A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY ORIENTED GRADIENT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AS WELL FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE
LESS WIND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THOUGH THE RIDGE
ADVANCES EASTWARD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A VERY WEAK
CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN BAJA. THIS IS INITIATED BY A
PORTION OF A SHORT WAVE BREAKING OFF AND GETTING PULLED INTO THE
ANTICYLONIC FLOW. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DOING THE
SAME KIND OF THING BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE GFS DEPICTS IT BEING
ABSORBED INTO THE EXISTING UPPER LOW...BECOMING CENTERED NEAR SAN
DIEGO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEW UPPER LOW LOCATION CENTERED OVER
NEVADA. BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE SUCH A WEAK LOW THAT PRECIP IS NOT ON
THE TABLE...PERHAPS JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KBLH...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z BUT
CONTINUE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH DAY. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL GENERATE WINDS
FAVORING THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH LOCAL BREEZINESS FROM TIME
TO TIME...MAINLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/ROGERS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 132118
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MID JANUARY. A DRY FLOW OF AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND UTAH WILL RESULT IN SOME
BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT TIMES MAINLY DOWN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENLY OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPRATURES. IN FACT VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE GREAT BASIN SURFACE
HIGH WILL KEEP A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY ORIENTED GRADIENT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA AS WELL FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE
LESS WIND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THOUGH THE RIDGE
ADVANCES EASTWARD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A VERY WEAK
CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ANTICYCLONE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...CENTERED OVER FAR NORTHERN BAJA. THIS IS INITIATED BY A
PORTION OF A SHORT WAVE BREAKING OFF AND GETTING PULLED INTO THE
ANTICYLONIC FLOW. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DOING THE
SAME KIND OF THING BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE GFS DEPICTS IT BEING
ABSORBED INTO THE EXISTING UPPER LOW...BECOMING CENTERED NEAR SAN
DIEGO. THE ECMWF SHOWS A NEW UPPER LOW LOCATION CENTERED OVER
NEVADA. BOTH SOLUTIONS HAVE SUCH A WEAK LOW THAT PRECIP IS NOT ON
THE TABLE...PERHAPS JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING NORTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST AT TIMES...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KBLH...BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z BUT
CONTINUE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. A PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA WILL GENERATE
WINDS FAVORING THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH LOCAL BREEZINESS FROM
TIME TO TIME...MAINLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 25 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...ROGERS
000
FXUS66 KHNX 132114
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
114 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL
VALLEY FOG WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENCE
FORECASTING SERVES BEST IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MADE TO THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST.
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WITH A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE US BY SATURDAY. REX BLOCK PATTERN
SETS UP FOR MORE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EAST TO NE FLOW MAY PROVIDE SOME WIND ACROSS
THE SIERRA EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOG AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND MORNING RESULTING IN LOCAL
LIFR VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THE VALLEY FROM
08Z THROUGH 19Z EACH DAY. AFTERWARD...MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THRU 00Z THURSDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JANUARY 13 2009... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING IS PROHIBITED IN FRESNO... KERN...
KINGS... MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...MV
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 132112
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE COME DOWN.
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY IS GOING ON WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME
AS YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN A FEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL
FALL. MOST LIKELY WE WILL HAVE THE WARMEST SPOT IN THE NATION AGAIN.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLY A TEMPORARY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. FIRE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MITIGATED BY
THE MOIST LIVE FUELS. THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS QUITE STRONG FOR ONE
MORE DAY WEDNESDAY SO TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO CONTINUE AS IS...EXCEPT
AT THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A BETTER INFLUENCE. ON
THURSDAY A WEAK INTERIOR SHORTWAVE PUTS A DENT IN THE UPPER HIGH.
THAT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE OFFSHORE WINDS BUT ALSO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. OVER THE WEEKEND A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FORMING A REX BLOCK ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THAT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER AND BY MONDAY IT APPEARS AN
END TO OUR DOMINATING OFFSHORE FLOW. EXTENDED MODELS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEK...BUT SOME WEAK TROUGH
PATTERN WITH COOLER WEATHER LOOK LIKE THE BEST FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
132130Z...TURBULENCE/LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE AS MAIN AVIATION
WEATHER CONCERNS. NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED TO
15-20 KTS BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 14/1000 UTC TO 20-30 KT
BELOW FL130 AND CONTINUE AT SIMILAR STRENGTH THROUGH 15/1800 UTC
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO EAST 15 KT OR LESS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR
| 
