Hurricane KYLE

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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA
DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A
GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS.  THE BUOY ALSO
REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE
ANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  THE
BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31
KT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB.  THESE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO. 
CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22.  IN SPITE OF THE RECENT
ACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 42.7N  66.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 45.1N  64.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 47.7N  63.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 50.5N  63.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 72HR VT     01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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