Hurricane KYLE

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HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
 
KYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A
HURRICANE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES
DECREASED A LITTLE...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND KYLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
SAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.
 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE HURRICANE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
SSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS...SO THE NEW FORECAST
NOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST.  THIS
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE
FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.
KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE
INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
DECELERATION DURING THAT TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL
BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 36.2N  69.5W    65 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.8W    65 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 43.7N  67.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  65.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 49.2N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.0N  63.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
 96HR VT     02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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