Tropical Storm KYLE

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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE BETWEEN
992 AND 995 MB AND A SPOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KNOTS NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR
CURRENTLY AFFECTING KYLE WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE COLD
WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS
KYLE CROSSES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
 
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS
MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD
SPEED TO 14 KNOTS. KYLE IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
HIGH TO THE EAST AND A STRONG DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN FAVORS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER NOVA
SCOTIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
 
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS KYLE WELL EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND...INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.  THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD DEFINITELY BE
MORE ON GUARD.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 29.4N  68.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 31.5N  69.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 34.8N  69.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 38.5N  68.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 42.5N  66.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 49.0N  63.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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