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000
FXUS61 KCAR 151010
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
510 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE
COAST TO THE MARITIMES COULD THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS IS BUILDING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE STATE TODAY. FOR SKY AND POPS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12
AND GFS40. LATEST MODEL RUN COMBINATION HAS CLOUDS AND POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST COASTAL ZONES. EXPECT MID DECK CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA
TO SCATTER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. PRIMARY FOCUS
WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SO
VERY COLD NUMBERS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN AREAS LATE. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NORTHERN AREAS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
ACROSS BOTH THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS AND DOWNEAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT MUCH BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER SUNDAY THEN
INTENSIFYING WHILE LIFTING ACROSS THE MARITIMES MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS AND
HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCES
OF SNOW APPEAR TO BE ACROSS EASTERN AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW. SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATER MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT COULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS AND
DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO LOWER IN
DEVELOPING SNOW SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION
OF A COASTAL LOW. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD THEN BE REDUCED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH ANY SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN IMPROVE LATER MONDAY...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR WIND WILL INITIALIZE WITH MODEL BLEND THEN INCREASE
SPEEDS AROUND 3 KNOTS WITH VERY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS 42
DEGREE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOR WAVES: WILL INITIALIZE WITH
NAM/SWAN BUT HAVE MADE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. WAVE WATCH
SPECTRAL INDICATES LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE FIELD. SPECTRAL DATA
FROM 44027 CONFIRMS THIS AND INDICATES MOST OF WAVE ENERGY
ATTRIBUTED TO THIS WAVE GROUP. SO WILL KEEP SCA UNTIL 20Z.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002-
005-006-010.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORCROSS
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 150830
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
330 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TODAY THEN EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...CRESTING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
A MID CLOUD DECK HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED 1015 MILLIBAR
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA AT 07Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LATEST GFS RUN. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
THAT EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH PA AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO REMAIN TO OUT WEST AND SOUTH NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR THE
EARLY MORNING COMMUTE OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SYSTEM PASSES BY QUICKLY TO OUR SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON IN IT`S WAKE. SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE
POPS ARE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE WE
MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCE A QUICK
DUSTING. OTHERWISE...WE`RE DEEP IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH HIGHS
TODAY STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS...WITH SINGLE
NUMBERS AND LOWER TEENS FOR THE REMAINDER. NORTHWEST WINDS WHILE
UNDER 10 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH VALUES IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR AND BITTERLY COLD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SNOW PACK PRODUCING MINS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 BELOW
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. INITIALIZED WITH A MET/MAV BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THEN
ADJUSTED VALUES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAIRLY QUITE PERIOD FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER
THIS...THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE AREA WILL DETERMINE IF PLOWABLE SNOW OCCURS
HERE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. WIND IN THE MORNING MAY
CAUSE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TAKE
ANY ACTION FOR THAT. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE MOS
BLEND...AS LONG AS CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE TOO QUICKLY.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TO CLEAR...AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF IN
THE EVENING. BASED ON THIS...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER GFS MOS
NUMBERS FOR LOWS...AND WENT BELOW THIS FOR THE PROTECTED
LOCATIONS.
THE MOUNTAINS MAY HANG ONTO CLOUDS AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
NI THE MID LEVELS STARTS TO BACK. HIGH CLOUDS COULD GET INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
IT FOR CLOUDS. A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR HIGHS OWING TO
THE VERY COLD START.
MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
FLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE SURFACE FEATURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IF
THIS IS THE CASE...A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE IN THE
CARDS AS THE BEST BAROCLINIC ZONE (IN THE LOW LEVELS) WOULD BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL TOO EARLY TO COUNT THIS
SYSTEM AS A MISS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE BROAD AND UNFOCUSED
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE AIRMASS STARTS DRY...AND IT WILL PROBABLY
TAKE ALL NIGHT FOR THE COLUMN TO MOISTEN. MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND DRY ELSEWHERE. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION PEAKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS WHEN MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AHEAD OF ANY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT.
AFTER THIS...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TOO FAR EAST
FOR US. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THEN CROSSES THE AREA...AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VFR EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPWM AND KPSM. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT (IF ANY) LOW PRESSURE WILL
HAVE ON THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT AT
NORTHERN CMAN BUOYS UNTIL DAWN...OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT VALUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS ON AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD SHOT. THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER AND THE TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT SEEM
TO MAKE GALE FORCE WINDS UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT (IF ANY) LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOULD DEVELOPMENT
TAKE PLACE CLOSER TO THE WATERS...GALE ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 150312
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY CRESTING THE
STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO PUSH BACK CLOUDS A BIT USING THE NAM12 TO
START AND THEN BLENDED IN THE GMOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS.
COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT UNDER
A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP. HOWEVER, LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW -20F ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NEGATIVE VALUES OVER
DOWNEAST. EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL PROBLEMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL WARNINGS (<-35F) FOR NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND
WINDS CHILL ADVISORY (<-20F) FOR NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND MOST OF
THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE, NORTHERN EXTENT
OF SNOW WILL REACH INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND EVEN IF LIGHT SNOW FALLS THERE ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS, EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS THIS PD WILL BE WIND CHILLS AND LATE NGT
BITTER COLD TEMPS. MODELS CONT TO SHOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL THU NGT AS A SFC RIDGE BRIDGES ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE
FA. ONLY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL OF CLDS ARRIVING LATE AT NGT OR BY
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NW. BUT PAST HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT HI MODEL
RH...SPCLY IN THE LOW LLVLS DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUATE WITH CLD
CVR IN DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASSES AS IT OTHERWISE IMPLIES WITH OTHER
AIR MASSES...MEANING ANY CLDS THAT DO ARRIVE MAY HOLD OFF TIL FRI
MORN. WITH A MAX FORECAST SFC TO 925 MB INVERSION OF 12 DEG C FROM
THE FRI PREDICTED 06Z 925 MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30 OVR THE FAR NW...
THE COLDEST FCST LOWS OF -35 TO -40 DEG F IS PREDICTED IN THIS
AREA WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS S AND E.
WE THEN BRING CLD CVR TO PTLY TO MSLY CLDY ACROSS THE NW...AND CLR
TO PTCLDY ELSEWHERE BY FRI AFT AS THE S/WV DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CAN VORTEX APCHS THE FA. GIVEN THE TOTAL COLDNESS OF THE AIR
MASS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO FLURRIES (OR PERHAPS ICE
CRYSTALS) AT MOST. WENT OPTIMISTIC FOR HI TEMPS FRI...SINCE CLD
CVR COULD RESULT IN LOWER HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N.
CLD CVR...OR THE LACK THEREOF...AGAIN BECOMES THE ISSUE FOR FRI
NGT. LOOKING AT A VARIETY OF MODELS...I PREFER A CAN/ECMWF/GFS
BLEND...WHICH BRIDGES A BUILDING SFC HI WEST OF THE MID LVL
VORTEX INTO THE FA...AND DRIES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OUT BY LATE
FRI NGT. I HAD TO PLAY A MIDDLE GROUND WITH LOW TEMPS GIVEN CLD
UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER IF SKIES END UP BEING CLR EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE FCST LOWS THIS PD WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY TO
WARM...WITH THE COLD NW LOW LYING SITES EASILY ECLIPSING -40 DEG F
AS THE COLDEST...DEEPEST PROFILE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVR THE FA
LATE FRI NGT. AFT ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY SAT...WHICH SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS...MOST MODELS INDICATE
THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SFC HI TO MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA SAT NGT WITH MCLR SKIES...ALLOWING FOR INTENSE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A DEEPER SFC ARCTIC INVERSION...DESPITE RECOVERING 925
MB TEMPS TO -20 TO -25 ACROSS THE N BY LATE SAT NGT. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE SFC HI AND ADVANCE OF HI/MID CLD
CVR WITH A DEVELOPING S/WV APCHG FROM THE MIDWEST ATTM...WE
LIMITED THE COLDEST TEMPS TO -35 ACROSS FAR NW ME...BUT AGAIN
IF CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL THIS PD...HISTORICALLY...15 TO 20 DEG SFC
INVERSIONS HAVE FORMED UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME OF OUR COLDEST SITES ECLIPSING -40 DEG F EARLY SUN MORN AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FIND THE ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FA AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE MODEL HOWEVER DISAGREE ON
THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH TOWARD THE
GULF OF MAINE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N TO THE SW COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY SUN EVENING...THE GFS EARLY MON MORNING. BY MON
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE LOW. BY TUES MORNING ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF NJ...THIS LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WED MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVR ERN ME.
FOR TUE AND EARLY WED. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE HIGH TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE
EXCEPTION NOTED ABOVE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MINOR DEPICTION DIFFERENCES. LOADED THE
GMOS AND ADJUSTED SKY AND POPS GRIDS TO BETTER SUPPORT ONE
ANOTHER.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE SUN NGT AND MON IN SN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED SCA TO 4 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE OVER
THE WATERS. EXTENDED FREEZING SPRAY SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THU NGT THRU SAT NGT. USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND GFS-SWAN
FOR WVS AND NAM80 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-
010.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MWALKER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...HEWITT/MWALKER
MARINE...HEWITT/MWALKER/VJN
000
FXUS61 KGYX 150151
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
851 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY MAINE. MORE VERY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND ONE OR TWO OF THEM MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
840PM UPDATE...MID-HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA
ATTM...AND LOOKS LIKE BKN HIGH DECK OVER NRN ZONES /SFC TEMPS
APPROACHING CLOUD HGT TEMPS MAKING IR AND LOW CLOUD SAT PRODUCTS
LESS USEFUL/...BUT SHOULD DEE THE MID-DECK ROLL IN SOON OVER THE
MTNS. GIVEN CURRENT TEMP TREND...HAVE BUMPED UP MINS BY 3-5F OVER
ENTIRE CWA. STILL...A VERY COLD NIGHT AHEAD.
PREV DISC...ALL TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF
THE WIND CHILL ADVY IN THE NRN ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AT ALL OF THE ASOS/MESONET SITES IN THIS AREA.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADVY LVL WIND CHILLS ON SOME OF THE TERRAIN THIS
EVE...BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO WELL BLO 10 KTS OR EVERYWHERE
BUT THE PEAKS AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE NOT UPDATED
MIN TEMPS YET...BUT AGAIN THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS...GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUDS...WILL MINS GET AS LOW AS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH? 18Z MAV IS WARMER THAN 12Z RUN...SO WILL GIVE IT
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND SEE HOW THE EARLY EVE COOLING PR0GRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH CLEARING FROM MID TO
LATE AFTN. CHC OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND OVER THE WATER. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF SUN. AGAIN USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR
HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY BUT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS EVENT AND REALLY
DON`T SEE MUCH MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...CRESTING OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO DEPOSIT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS. SNOW COMES TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
KEEPING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY WITH ANY CIGS MAINLY 5K FT
OR HIGHER. ONLY ISSUE MAY BE -SN DEVELOPING AT KPSM FOR A FEW
HOURS THU MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND A PROB30 FITS THIS
NICELY.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR/IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS
A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LET THE GALES EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AS WINDS DROPPED OFF
QUICKLY...AS THEY FELL RIGHT THRU THE SMALL CRAFT LVLS IN AN HOUR
SO...AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN SCA...BUT COULD SEE STILL A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER ERN WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT
BAY. WILL STILL SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...WHICH GIVEN THE FALLING
TEMPS COULD PRODUCE SOME FZ SPRAY AT TIMES UNTIL ABOUT MID
NIGHT...WHEN GUSTS WILL DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KGYX 142350
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
650 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT TO SEA...BUT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER
SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY MAINE. MORE VERY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN MARITIMES. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND ONE OR TWO OF THEM MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ALL TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND
CHILL ADVY IN THE NRN ZONES...AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO LESS
THAN 10 KTS AT ALL OF THE ASOS/MESONET SITES IN THIS AREA. MIGHT
SEE SOME ADVY LVL WIND CHILLS ON SOME OF THE TERRAIN THIS
EVE...BUT WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO WELL BLO 10 KTS OR EVERYWHERE
BUT THE PEAKS AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE NOT UPDATED
MIN TEMPS YET...BUT AGAIN THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS...GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUDS...WILL MINS GET AS LOW AS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH? 18Z MAV IS WARMER THAN 12Z RUN...SO WILL GIVE IT
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND SEE HOW THE EARLY EVE COOLING PR0GRESSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FOR TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH CLEARING FROM MID TO
LATE AFTN. CHC OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND OVER THE WATER. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF SUN. AGAIN USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR
HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY BUT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS EVENT AND REALLY
DON`T SEE MUCH MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...CRESTING OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO DEPOSIT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS. SNOW COMES TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
KEEPING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR/IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS
DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...LET THE GALES EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AS WINDS DROPPED OFF
QUICKLY...AS THEY FELL RIGHT THRU THE SMALL CRAFT LVLS IN AN HOUR
SO...AND WILL NOT ISSUE AN SCA...BUT COULD SEE STILL A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER ERN WATERS S OF PENOBSCOT
BAY. WILL STILL SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...WHICH GIVEN THE FALLING
TEMPS COULD PRODUCE SOME FZ SPRAY AT TIMES UNTIL ABOUT MID
NIGHT...WHEN GUSTS WILL DIMINISH.
LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...CEMPA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 142315
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
615 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
CRESTING THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO PUSH BACK CLOUDS A BIT USING THE NAM12 TO
START AND THEN BLENDED IN THE GMOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS.
COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.
HOWEVER, LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW -20F ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NEGATIVE VALUES OVER
DOWNEAST. EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL PROBLEMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL WARNINGS (<-35F) FOR NORTHWEST SECTIONS
AND WINDS CHILL ADVISORY (<-20F) FOR NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND MOST
OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE, NORTHERN EXTENT
OF SNOW WILL REACH INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND EVEN IF LIGHT SNOW FALLS THERE ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS, EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS THIS PD WILL BE WIND CHILLS AND LATE NGT
BITTER COLD TEMPS. MODELS CONT TO SHOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL THU NGT AS A SFC RIDGE BRIDGES ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE
FA. ONLY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL OF CLDS ARRIVING LATE AT NGT OR BY
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NW. BUT PAST HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT HI MODEL
RH...SPCLY IN THE LOW LLVLS DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUATE WITH CLD
CVR IN DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASSES AS IT OTHERWISE IMPLIES WITH OTHER
AIR MASSES...MEANING ANY CLDS THAT DO ARRIVE MAY HOLD OFF TIL FRI
MORN. WITH A MAX FORECAST SFC TO 925 MB INVERSION OF 12 DEG C FROM
THE FRI PREDICTED 06Z 925 MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30 OVR THE FAR NW...
THE COLDEST FCST LOWS OF -35 TO -40 DEG F IS PREDICTED IN THIS
AREA WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS S AND E.
WE THEN BRING CLD CVR TO PTLY TO MSLY CLDY ACROSS THE NW...AND CLR
TO PTCLDY ELSEWHERE BY FRI AFT AS THE S/WV DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CAN VORTEX APCHS THE FA. GIVEN THE TOTAL COLDNESS OF THE AIR
MASS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO FLURRIES (OR PERHAPS ICE
CRYSTALS) AT MOST. WENT OPTIMISTIC FOR HI TEMPS FRI...SINCE CLD
CVR COULD RESULT IN LOWER HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N.
CLD CVR...OR THE LACK THEREOF...AGAIN BECOMES THE ISSUE FOR FRI
NGT. LOOKING AT A VARIETY OF MODELS...I PREFER A CAN/ECMWF/GFS
BLEND...WHICH BRIDGES A BUILDING SFC HI WEST OF THE MID LVL
VORTEX INTO THE FA...AND DRIES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OUT BY LATE
FRIN NGT. I HAD TO PLAY A MIDDLE GROUND WITH LOW TEMPS GIVEN CLD
UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER IF SKIES END UP BEING CLR EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE FCST LOWS THIS PD WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY TO
WARM...WITH THE COLD NW LOW LYING SITES EASILY ECLIPSING -40 DEG F
AS THE COLDEST...DEEPEST PROFILE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVR THE FA
LATE FRI NGT. AFT ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY SAT...WHICH SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS...MOST MODELS INDICATE
THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING SFC HI TO MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA SAT NGT WITH MCLR SKIES...ALLOWING FOR INTENSE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A DEEPER SFC ARCTIC INVERSION...DESPITE RECOVERING 925
MB TEMPS TO -20 TO -25 ACROSS THE N BY LATE SAT NGT. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE SFC HI AND ADVANCE OF HI/MID CLD
CVR WITH A DEVELOPING S/WV APCHG FROM THE MIDWEST ATTM...WE
LIMITED THE COLDEST TEMPS TO -35 ACROSS FAR NW ME...BUT AGAIN
IF CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL THIS PD...HISTORICALLY...15 TO 20 DEG SFC
INVERSIONS HAVE FORMED UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME OF OUR COLDEST SITES ECLIPSING -40 DEG F EARLY SUN MORN AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FIND THE ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FA AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE MODEL HOWEVER DISAGREE ON
THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH TOWARD THE
GULF OF MAINE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N TO THE SW COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY SUN EVENING...THE GFS EARLY MON MORNING. BY MON
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE LOW. BY TUES MORNING ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF NJ...THIS LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WED MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVR ERN ME.
FOR TUE AND EARLY WED. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE HIGH TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE
EXCEPTION NOTED ABOVE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MINOR DEPICTION DIFFERENCES. LOADED THE
GMOS AND ADJUSTED SKY AND POPS GRIDS TO BETTER SUPPORT ONE
ANOTHER.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE SUN NGT AND MON IN SN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS COMING DOWN TO SCA EVERYWHERE ATTM.
THEREFORE...GLW HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
SCA FOR INTRA-COASTAL ZONE HAS BE EXTENDED TO 1 AM.
NCEP VESSEL ICING FORECAST INDICATES MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. USED THE GFS FOR WINDS AND
BLEND OF THE WNAWAVE AND SWAN FOR SEAS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THU NGT THRU SAT NGT. USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND GFS-SWAN
FOR WVS AND NAM80 AND GFF40 FOR WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-
010.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOSTER/HEWITT
MARINE...FOSTER/HEWITT/VJN
000
FXUS61 KCAR 142106
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
406 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
CRESTING THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP.
HOWEVER, LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON THURSDAY. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW -20F ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NEGATIVE VALUES OVER
DOWNEAST. EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL PROBLEMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL WARNINGS (<-35F) FOR NORTHWEST SECTIONS
AND WINDS CHILL ADVISORY (<-20F) FOR NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND MOST
OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE, NORTHERN EXTENT
OF SNOW WILL REACH INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW POPS
ALONG THE COAST AND EVEN IF LIGHT SNOW FALLS THERE ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING ABOVE ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS, EXPECT ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP WIND CHILL
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE BIGGEST CONCERNS THIS PD WILL BE WIND CHILLS AND LATE NGT
BITTER COLD TEMPS. MODELS CONT TO SHOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL THU NGT AS A SFC RIDGE BRIDGES ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE
FA. ONLY CONCERN IS POTENTIAL OF CLDS ARRIVING LATE AT NGT OR BY
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE NW. BUT PAST HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT HI MODEL
RH...SPCLY IN THE LOW LLVLS DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUATE WITH CLD
CVR IN DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASSES AS IT OTHERWISE IMPLIES WITH OTHER
AIR MASSES...MEANING ANY CLDS THAT DO ARRIVE MAY HOLD OFF TIL FRI
MORN. WITH A MAX FORECAST SFC TO 925 MB INVERSION OF 12 DEG C FROM
THE FRI PREDICTED 06Z 925 MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30 OVR THE FAR NW...
THE COLDEST FCST LOWS OF -35 TO -40 DEG F IS PREDICTED IN THIS
AREA WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS S AND E.
WE THEN BRING CLD CVR TO PTLY TO MSLY CLDY ACROSS THE NW...AND CLR
TO PTCLDY ELSEWHERE BY FRI AFT AS THE S/WV DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CAN VORTEX APCHS THE FA. GIVEN THE TOTAL COLDNESS OF THE AIR
MASS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO FLURRIES (OR PERHAPS ICE
CRYSTALS) AT MOST. WENT OPTIMISTIC FOR HI TEMPS FRI...SINCE CLD
CVR COULD RESULT IN LOWER HI TEMPS ACROSS THE N.
CLD CVR...OR THE LACK THEREOF...AGAIN BECOMES THE ISSUE FOR FRI
NGT. LOOKING AT A VARIETY OF MODELS...I PREFER A CAN/ECMWF/GFS
BLEND...WHICH BRIDGES A BUILDING SFC HI WEST OF THE MID LVL
VORTEX INTO THE FA...AND DRIES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OUT BY LATE
FRIN NGT. I HAD TO PLAY A MIDDLE GROUND WITH LOW TEMPS GIVEN CLD
UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER IF SKIES END UP BEING CLR EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED...THE FCST LOWS THIS PD WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY TO
WARM...WITH THE COLD NW LOW LYING SITES EASILY ECLIPSING -40 DEG F
AS THE COLDEST...DEEPEST PROFILE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVR THE FA
LATE FRI NGT. AFT ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY SAT...WHICH SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS...MOST MODELS INDICATE
THE CENTER OF A STREGTHENING SFC HI TO MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS
OF THE FA SAT NGT WITH MCLR SKIES...ALLOWING FOR INTENSE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A DEEPER SFC ARCTIC INVERSION...DESPITE RECOVERING 925
MB TEMPS TO -20 TO -25 ACROSS THE N BY LATE SAT NGT. GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THE SFC HI AND ADVANCE OF HI/MID CLD
CVR WITH A DEVELOPING S/WV APCHG FROM THE MIDWEST ATTM...WE
LIMITED THE COLDEST TEMPS TO -35 ACROSS FAR NW ME...BUT AGAIN
IF CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL THIS PD...HISTORICALLY...15 TO 20 DEG SFC
INVERSIONS HAVE FORMED UNDER THESE CONDTIONS...WHICH COULD RESULT
IN SOME OF OUR COLDEST SITES ECLIPSING -40 DEG F ERLY SUN MORN AS
WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FIND THE ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THED FA AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE MODEL HOWEVER DISAGREE ON
THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH TOWARD THE
GULF OF MAINE. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N TO THE SW COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA BY SUN EVENING...THE GFS EARLY MON MORNING. BY MON
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE LOW. BY TUES MORNING ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF NJ...THIS LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WED MORNING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIANT OVR ERN ME.
FOR TUE AND EARLY WED. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE HIGH TO
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE
EXCEPTION NOTED ABOVE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MINOR DEPICTION DIFFERENCES. LOADED THE
GMOS AND ADJUSTED SKY AND POPS GRIDS TO BETTER SUPPORT ONE
ANOTHER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE SUN NGT AND MON IN SN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE UNTIL 0600PM TONIGHT. AT THAT TIME, WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCA LEVELS. NCEP VESSEL ICING FORECAST
INDICATES MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. USED THE GFS FOR WINDS AND BLEND OF THE WNAWAVE AND SWAN
FOR SEAS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THU NGT THRU SAT NGT. USED A BLEND OF WW3 AND GFS-SWAN
FOR WVS AND NAM80 AND GFF40 FOR WINDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-010.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR MEZ001-003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/VJN
000
FXUS61 KGYX 142003
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT
TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DISSIPATING OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE MINIMUM TEMPS. CLOUD COVER IS
BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE NE FROM WEAK SYSTEM OVER INDIANA. WILL
SEE A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD CVR WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A BIT
HIGHER. STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY COLD NIGHT THOUGH. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT. POPS WILL INCREASE OVER SRN AREAS
TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SRN NH AND SW MAINE
BY DAWN. WILL LET THE WIND CHILL ADVISROY EXPIRE AT 6 PM. WINDS
WILL BE DROPPING OFF TO UNDER 10 MPH. WILL ALSO LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
FOR TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH CLEARING FROM MID TO
LATE AFTN. CHC OF SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND OVER THE WATER. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF SUN. AGAIN USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR
HIGH TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY BUT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST
ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. POPS VERY LOW FOR THIS EVENT AND REALLY
DON`T SEE MUCH MORE THAN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...CRESTING OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO DEPOSIT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY IN SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL AREAS. SNOW COMES TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
KEEPING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MVFR/IFR VSBY AND CEILINGS
DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT SO THE
GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM. MAY NEED SCA THURSDAY AFTN AS
SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...SCA LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONDITIONS
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154-170.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 141514
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1014 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW AND TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AND THIS AFTN FOR NHZ1-3 AND MEZ7-9. WIND CHILLS IN THE
MTNS ARE DOWN TO -25 AT BOTH HIE AND BML AND -21 AT GNR. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISC...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS OF 07Z. SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
LINGERING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH DAWN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP IN STRONG DOWNSLOPE FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING MORNING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COLD AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE.
WINDS DIMINISH BY DUSK WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT READINGS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE
COAST...AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE... WITH
DRY AIR AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO KEEP
THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH DAWN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MOST INTERESTING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE AT THE BEGINNING
AND TOWARD THE END. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
THE 0000 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS (SUPPORTED BY THE 2100 SREF) SUGGEST
THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THURSDAY TO KEEP
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITIVELY
TILTED...THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE SOUTHEAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE COAST OF MAINE ON THE NORTHERNMOST FRINGE OF
THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION.
BASED ON THE ABOVE PREMISE...KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THESE
AREAS...AND DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE PASSING SHORT WAVE COULD RESULT
IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS
SO DRY DID NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE (AND A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF ARCTIC
AIRMASSES)...SINCE WITH THE SLIGHTLY COLDER GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.
DRIER AND COLDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE WINDS STAY UP LONG
ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES. FOR THE MOST
PART...BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE WINDS STAY UP
IN THE EVENING...THE GFS MOS NUMBERS COULD BE OUT OF REACH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS COLD. DRY AND
COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS...THE 0000 UTC MODEL SUITE OFFERS AN ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
CLOSED SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS IS TURN AFFECTS THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE 0000 ECMWF POSITION SEEMS THE
BEST FOR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A
TRACK THAT FAR WEST (INTO A SNOWPACK FOLLOWING ARCTIC AIR) WOULD
OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NW
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING AFTER 19Z.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...KPSM
AND KPWM WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 1300 UTC AND 2000
UTC THURSDAY. AFTER THIS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...GALES ON THE WATERS UNTIL EARLY EVENING
IN WAKE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD...FOR THE MOST PART...REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL CROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 KNOTS (MAINLY IN GUSTS).
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY
GUST TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT SHOULD
PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO KEEP GALES OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT IOSN3 AND MISM1 COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS...MAINLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009.
NH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154-170.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KCAR 141013
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
513 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS AND IMPORT COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES AWAY...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE MARITIMES
TODAY WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPORTING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY...SO WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FROM 12
TO 22Z FOR NORTHWEST AREAS. A WIND CHILL WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
TONIGHT. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
MODEL TEMPERATURES SO HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FOR POP...SKY AND QPF
GRIDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. FOR EARLY MORNING
WILL MONITOR APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TO NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
COULD CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT MUCH BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS AT TIMES
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THEN MOVE TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS REGARDING THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH COULD BE LIFTING ALONG THE COAST
LATER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MORE EASTERLY TRACK WOULD
DIMINISH THE SNOW THREAT...WHILE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT MUCH BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SUNDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THURSDAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AGAIN
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN BEGIN TO LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS LATER SUNDAY WITH DEVELOPING SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL INCREASE WIND SPEED 3 KNOTS ABOVE MODEL
BLEND TO ADJUST FOR COLD TEMPERATURE OVER 42 DEGREE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING TODAY BASED ON WIND
GUSTS...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
WILL ALSO ADD FREEZING SPRAY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FOR
WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE FIELD WIND GENERATED WITH SECONDARY SOUTHERLY
LONG PERIOD WAVE FIELD BASED ON WNA SPECTRAL. HAVE INITIALIZED
WAVE GRIDS WITH 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM SWAN MODELS. WILL
INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS TO ADJUST FOR STRONGER FORECAST WIND SPEED.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS COULD
THEN INCREASE BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY...WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN DEVELOPING SNOW AGAIN LATER SUNDAY.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL PERSIST EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-003-004-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/NORCROSS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 140837
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
337 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW AND TUMBLING TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS OF 07Z. SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A FEW
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LINGERING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH DAWN. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
BREAK UP IN STRONG DOWNSLOPE FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING MORNING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE SUNNY AND COLD AS ARCTIC AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
GIVEN STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE.
WINDS DIMINISH BY DUSK WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT READINGS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO NEAR THE
COAST...AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE... WITH
DRY AIR AND A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO KEEP
THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH DAWN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MOST INTERESTING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE AT THE BEGINNING
AND TOWARD THE END. IN BETWEEN...MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
THE 0000 UTC MODEL CONSENSUS (SUPPORTED BY THE 2100 SREF) SUGGEST
THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THURSDAY TO KEEP
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL KEEP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITIVELY
TILTED...THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE SOUTHEAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE COAST OF MAINE ON THE NORTHERNMOST FRINGE OF
THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION.
BASED ON THE ABOVE PREMISE...KEPT A MENTION OF SNOW FOR THESE
AREAS...AND DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE PASSING SHORT WAVE COULD RESULT
IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH THE AIRMASS
SO DRY DID NOT MENTION ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE (AND A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF ARCTIC
AIRMASSES)...SINCE WITH THE SLIGHTLY COLDER GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS.
DRIER AND COLDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE WINDS STAY UP LONG
ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES. FOR THE MOST
PART...BLENDED MOS FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE WINDS STAY UP
IN THE EVENING...THE GFS MOS NUMBERS COULD BE OUT OF REACH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THE AIR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS COLD. DRY AND
COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS...THE 0000 UTC MODEL SUITE OFFERS AN ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
CLOSED SYSTEM...THERE SHOULD BE GOOD SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONCERNING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS IS TURN AFFECTS THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE 0000 ECMWF POSITION SEEMS THE
BEST FOR MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A
TRACK THAT FAR WEST (INTO A SNOWPACK FOLLOWING ARCTIC AIR) WOULD
OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NW
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DIMINISHING AFTER 19Z.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...KPSM
AND KPWM WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 1300 UTC AND 2000
UTC THURSDAY. AFTER THIS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...GALES ON THE WATERS UNTIL EARLY EVENING
IN WAKE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS SHOULD...FOR THE MOST PART...REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WHILE SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL CROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO SUPPORT ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 30 KNOTS (MAINLY IN GUSTS).
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY
GUST TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH ON THE OCEAN WATERS. IT SHOULD
PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO KEEP GALES OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY THAT IOSN3 AND MISM1 COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS...MAINLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154-170.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 140156
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
856 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
MORE BITTERLY COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC THIS
EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND PUSH ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL FORCING ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW MARINE
INFLUENCE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER COASTAL
REGIONS WHERE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL FALL. USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR QPF WITH STILL AROUND 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IN THE NORTH AND DECREASING AMOUNTS SOUTH. WITH SNOW RATIOS
UP TO 15-20 TO 1, THIS WILL PROVIDE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NORTHERN
AROOSTOCK COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTH. ARCTIC BOUNDARY QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS AND WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
MPH. EXPECT DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH ROUTES EXPOSED TO
THE NORTHWEST WINDS. HAVE LEFT BLOWING SNOW OUT ACROSS AREAS THAT
WILL RECEIVE RAIN TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON THE
SNOW. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THIS PTN OF THE GRIDS.
WHATS INTERESTING HERE IS THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SHALLOW ARCTIC SURFACE INVERSIONS...SPCLY OVR
PROTECTED LOW LYING AREAS OF THE NRN RVR VLYS BEGINNING AS ERLY AS
LATE WED NGT AND RE-OCCURRING AGAIN THU NGT AND PERHAPS FRI NGT
AND SAT NGT DEPENDING ON CLD CVR. THE COLDEST POTENTIAL NGT ATTM
APPEARS TO BE THU NGT WHERE IT THE HIGHEST CERTAINTY OF CLR SKIES
IS XPCTD FA WIDE. THE SFC TO 925 MB DELTA TEMP METHOD WAS UTILIZED
FOR BOTH WED NGT AND THU NGT WITH NEGATIVE 5 DEG C AND 10 DEG C
SPREADS RESPECTIVELY FROM PREDICTED 925 MB TEMPS OF 25 TO 30 DEG C
BELOW RANGE BOTH NGTS...AND WITH THIN CLD CVR AND BL TO 950 MB
WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KT LIMITING INVERSION STRENGTH WED NGT AND
ONLY BL TO 950 MB WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KT THU NGT. THE DELTA TEMP
INVERSION OF ONLY -10 DEG C EMPLOYED FOR THU NGT LOWS IS
CONSERVATIVE BASED ON SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET-UPS LAST JAN...AND IT
CONCEIVABLY CAN REACH -15 DEG C ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND WRN ST JOHN
VLYS...RESULTING IN SUB -40 DEG READINGS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THERE...BUT ITS A LITTLE TO ERLY TO COMMIT TO THIS INVERSION
STRENGTH YET CONSIDERING CLD/WIND UNCERTAINTIES FROM THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE...CLDS AND SN POPS WILL OCCUR OVR SRN PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU AS A FLAT S/WV MOVES S OF THE GULF OF ME. ONLY THE OPNL 12Z GFS
IS AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC PRES GRAD ON THE
W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE WEAKER...FLATTER AND FURTHER S WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEAVING A
WEAKER PRES GRAD IN ITS WAKE. IN ANY EVENT...WED DID GO WITH CHC
POPS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND LIKELY POPS ALG THE COAST THU WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. IN MY OPINION...THE THE LLVL COLD
ADVCN OF DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS AND SNFL FURTHER S
THAN WE SHOW.
CLDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME FRI...WITH PERHAPS FLURRIES AND LGT
SN SHWRS...WITH THE BITTER COLD LLVL AIR LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATION
LITTLE OR NONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEPENDING ON CLD CVR...MOST MODELS INDICATE OTHER POTENTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LLVL NOCTURNAL ARCTIC INVERSION SET-UPS...
SPCLY SAT NGT. SLOWLY MODERATING 925 MB TEMPS INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEG
C BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE N AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN -20 DEG C
SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARMER DAYTIME HI TEMPS...BUT DEEPER
NGT TIME INVERSIONS UNDER MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD
RESULT IN CONTD -30 DEG F OR LESS LOWS INTO ERLY SUN MORN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE COULD REMAIN
BELOW ZERO FROM WED EVE INTO SUN MORN. THE NEXT CHC OF SNFL...
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WILL BE SUN NGT INTO MON AS STRONG WARM ADVCN
OCCURS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. GIVEN DISTANCE OUT IN
THE LONGER TERM...KEPT POPS IN THE HI CHC CAT FOR NOW. LESS COLDER
AIR APPEARS TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE...SO THE OVERALL TREND
IN TEMPS WILL BE FOR MODERATION SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW TONIGHT AND THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 09-12Z AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE STATE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY VFR
XCPT PERHAPS MVFR IN SN AT KBGR AND KBHB THU AND BRIEFLY IN ANY BKN
SC ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INTRA COASTAL
ZONE WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS SO WILL KEEP SCA
GOING THERE FOR WEDNESDAY. NCEP VESSEL ICING INDICATES MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY FOR OUR OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR WINDS AND A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND WNAWAVE
FOR SEAS.
SHORT TERM: INITIALLY SCA. CANNOT RULE OUT MOD FZSPY INTO WED
EVE...BUT FOR NOW HELD OFF. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW SCA THU...APCH SCA AGAIN THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WELL SE OF THE WATERS...THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU
SUN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MWALKER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/
000
FXUS61 KGYX 140041
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...SETTING
OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. IT
WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE AND VERY COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LARGE AND
BITTERLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATER ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
STARTED SEEING SPOTTY PRECIP IN THE MTNS AND FAR WRN ZONES DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT IS CONTINUING THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH RADAR ECHOES ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN OBS...AS
ANY SN TO THE N STILL HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND.
ALONG THE COAST...ONSHORE S FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...AND SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT SHSN/SHRA RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND JUST INLAND. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PRECIP GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY REAL ACCUMULATING
SHSN...MAINLY IN THE MTS/FOOTHILLS...WHERE 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
AS FOR THE TIMING OF FROPA...IT/LL CROSS INTO NWRN ZONES
~04Z...AND EXIT THE FAR ERN ZONES 8-9Z. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
NW WIND GUSTS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL LKLY HAVE TO WAIT
FOR DAYTIME MIXING FOR A MORE PERSISTENT NW GUSTS. TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET RIGHT AFTER FROPA...AND SKIES LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA, VERY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...MAYBE A FEW EARLY MRNG FLURRIES IN THE MTNS THO.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSUNNY...VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD DAY TO BE OUTDOORS. BLENDED FWC/MAV
TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BITTER COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. I USED A BLEND OF
THE MET/MAV FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT. THE
FORECAST PROBLEM ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPS IS HOW MUCH WIND AND HOW
MANY CLOUDS. WED NIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON A
NW WIND WITH CLOUDS AROUND FROM THE SYSTEM THAT NOW LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT PRECIP. THIS COLD AIR MASS MEANS BUSINESS AND EVEN WITH
SOME WIND AND CLOUDS LOW TEMPS THURS MORNING WILL BE BITTER.
EXPECT BELOW ZERO READINGS RIGHT THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ZERO IN THE MTNS FOR HIGHS ON THURS AFTN WITH SINGLE NUMBER
TO LOW TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECT TO SEE A MINUS 30 OR LOWER READING AT AT LEAST
ONE LOCATION FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTN TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO
IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE.
SAT MORNING COULD BE ANOTHER EXTREMELY COLD MORNING AS THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS
SO I HAVE TEMPERED THE LOWS FOR SAT MORNING A BIT. IN THE ABSENCE
OF CLOUDS SAT MORN WILL BE AS COLD IF NOT COLDER THAN FRI MORN.
SAT AFTN CORE OF COLD AIR MOVES EAST SO TEMPS A BIT HIGHER. CLOUDS
AND SOME OVERUNNING PRECIP PSBL SUN AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST.
ECMWF IS INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...ANY SNOW SHWRS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FROPA WILL LKLY ONLY REDUCE VIS CONDS TO MVFR BRIEFLY WITH CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...XCPT AT KLEB/KAUG...WHERE
WILL LKLY HAVE TO WAIT FOR SUNRISE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WILL CONTINUE THE GLW FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND THRU WED DUE TO STG PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STG
CAA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAY NEED SCA OR MINIMAL
GALE FOR LATE THURS/EARLY FRI AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154-
170.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KCAR 132123
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
423 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY UNDER A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
MORE BITTERLY COLD AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND PUSH
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. FRONTAL FORCING ALONG
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
MARINE INFLUENCE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER MUCH
OF DOWNEAST WHERE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL FALL. HAVE SOME CONCERNS
FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
ALL LEVELS SO ENTIRE BOUNDARY LEVEL WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT FREEZING SCENARIO FROM SETTING UP. USED A BLEND OF
THE MODELS FOR QPF WITH STILL AROUND 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12 TO 1, THIS WILL
PROVIDE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST WHERE
RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW. ARCTIC BOUNDARY QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BE REACH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30
MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH ROUTES EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST WINDS. HAVE
LEFT BLOWING SNOW OUT ACROSS AREAS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAIN TONIGHT
AS RAIN SHOULD PROVIDE A CAP ON THE SNOW. USED A BLEND OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THIS PTN OF THE GRIDS.
WHATS INTERESTING HERE IS THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SHALLOW ARCTIC SURFACE INVERSIONS...SPCLY OVR
PROTECTED LOW LYING AREAS OF THE NRN RVR VLYS BEGINNING AS ERLY AS
LATE WED NGT AND RE-OCCURRING AGAIN THU NGT AND PERHAPS FRI NGT
AND SAT NGT DEPENDING ON CLD CVR. THE COLDEST POTENTIAL NGT ATTM
APPEARS TO BE THU NGT WHERE IT THE HIGHEST CERTAINTY OF CLR SKIES
IS XPCTD FA WIDE. THE SFC TO 925 MB DELTA TEMP METHOD WAS UTILIZED
FOR BOTH WED NGT AND THU NGT WITH NEGATIVE 5 DEG C AND 10 DEG C
SPREADS RESPECTIVELY FROM PREDICTED 925 MB TEMPS OF 25 TO 30 DEG C
BELOW RANGE BOTH NGTS...AND WITH THIN CLD CVR AND BL TO 950 MB
WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KT LIMITING INVERSION STRENGTH WED NGT AND
ONLY BL TO 950 MB WINDS GREATER THAN 10 KT THU NGT. THE DELTA TEMP
INVERSION OF ONLY -10 DEG C EMPLOYED FOR THU NGT LOWS IS
CONSERVATIVE BASED ON SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET-UPS LAST JAN...AND IT
CONCEIVABLY CAN REACH -15 DEG C ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND WRN ST JOH
VLYS...RESULTING IN SUB -40 DEG READINGS AT SOME LOCATIONS
THERE...BUT ITS A LITTLE TO ERLY TO COMMIT TO THIS INVERSION
STRENGTH YET CONSIDERING CLD/WIND UNCERTAINTIES FROM THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE...CLDS AND SN POPS WILL OCCUR OVR SRN PTNS OF THE FA ON
THU AS A FLAT S/WV MOVES S OF THE GULF OF ME. ONLY THE OPNL 12Z GFS
IS AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC PRES GRAD ON THE
W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE WEAKER...FLATTER AND FURTHER S WITH THIS SYSTEM...LEAVING A
WEAKER PRES GRAD IN ITS WAKE. IN ANY EVENT...WED DID GO WITH CHC
POPS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND LIKELY POPS ALG THE COAST THU WITH
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS. IN MY OPINION...THE THE LLVL COLD
ADVCN OF DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY SUPRESS AND SNFL FURTHER S
THAN WE SHOW.
CLDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME FRI...WITH PERHAPS FLURRIES AND LGT
SN SHWRS...WITH THE BITTER COLD LLVL AIR LIKELY KEEP ACCUMULATION
LITTLE OR NONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEPENDING ON CLD CVR...MOST MODELS INDICATE OTHER POTENTIAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LLVL NOCTURNAL ARCTIC INVERSION SET-UPS...
SPCLY SAT NGT. SLOWLY MODERATING 925 MB TEMPS INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEG
C BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE N AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN -20 DEG C
SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARMER DAYTIME HI TEMPS...BUT DEEPER
NGT TIME INVERSIONS UNDER MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD
RESULT IN CONTD -30 DEG F OR LESS LOWS INTO ERLY SUN MORN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE COULD REMAIN
BELOW ZERO FROM WED EVE INTO SUN MORN. THE NEXT CHC OF SNFL...
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WILL BE SUN NGT INTO MON AS STRONG WARM ADVCN
OCCURS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. GIVEN DISTANCE OUT IN
THE LONGER TERM...KEPT POPS IN THE HI CHC CAT FOR NOW. LESS COLDER
AIR APPEARS TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR TUE...SO THE OVERALL TREND
IN TEMPS WILL BE FOR MODERATION SUN INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW TONIGHT AND THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 09-12Z AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE STATE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY VFR
XCPT PERHAPS MVFR IN SN AT KBGR AND KBHB THU AND BRIFLY IN ANY BKN
SC ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WED INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. INTRA COASTAL
ZONE WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS SO WILL KEEP SCA
GOING THERE FOR WEDNESDAY. NCEP VESSEL ICING INDICATES MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY FOR OUR OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR WINDS AND A BLEND OF THE SWAN AND WNAWAVE
FOR SEAS.
SHORT TERM: INTIALLY SCA. CANNOT RULE OUT MOD FZSPY INTO WED
EVE...BUT FOR NOW HELD OFF. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW SCA THU...APCH SCA AGAIN THU NGT INTO ERLY FRI BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WELL SE OF THE WATERS...THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU
SUN.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/VJN
000
FXUS61 KGYX 132022
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. A
LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. LOWS PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK WAA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO BE WRUNG OUT SINCE LOWER LEVELS
ARE STILL VERY DRY. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. LESS THAN AN INCH IN ALL
AREAS EXPECTED SO OPTED NOT TO PUT UP ANY ADVISORIES...IN THE MTNS
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE. WILL BE EXPECTING RAPID
CLEARING AFT ABOUT 08Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ESP WITH THE HELP
OF STG DOWNLOPING KICKING IN. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL HARD TIL BEHIND
THE FROPA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REFLECTED IT AS SUCH. STAYED
CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR LOWS BY MRNG. WINDS WILL PICK UP
CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FROPA LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA, VERY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...MAYBE A FEW ERLY MRNG FLURRIES IN THE MTNS THO.
ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSUNNY...VERY COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD DAY TO BE OUTDOORS. BLENDED FWC/MAV
TEMPS FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BITTER COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. I USED A BLEND OF
THE MET/MAV FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS WED NIGHT THRU THURS NIGHT. THE
FORECAST PROBLEM ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPS IS HOW MUCH WIND AND HOW
MANY CLOUDS. WED NIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING ON A
NW WIND WITH CLOUDS AROUND FROM THE SYSTEM THAT NOW LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT WILL SLIDE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO GIVE US ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT PRECIP. THIS COLD AIR MASS MEANS BUSINESS AND EVEN WITH
SOME WIND AND CLOUDS LOW TEMPS THURS MORNING WILL BE BITTER.
EXPECT BELOW ZERO READINGS RIGHT THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ZERO IN THE MTNS FOR HIGHS ON THURS AFTN WITH SINGLE NUMBER
TO LOW TEENS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECT TO SEE A MINUS 30 OR LOWER READING AT AT LEAST
ONE LOCATION FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTN TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO
IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AND IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ELSEWHERE.
SAT MORNING COULD BE ANOTHER EXTREMELY COLD MORNING AS THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR WILL BE OVERHEAD HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS
SO I HAVE TEMPERED THE LOWS FOR SAT MORNING A BIT. IN THE ABSENCE
OF CLOUDS SAT MORN WILL BE AS COLD IF NOT COLDER THAN FRI MORN.
SAT AFTN CORE OF COLD AIR MOVES EAST SO TEMPS A BIT HIGHER. CLOUDS
AND SOME OVERUNNING PRECIP PSBL SUN AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST.
ECMWF IS INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SOME MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHWRS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FROPA THEN BECOMING VFR AFT 08Z FOLLOWED BY SKC CONDS
BY 12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME STG AND GSTY FROM THE NW AFT 09Z.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WILL CONTINUE THE GLW FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND THRU WED DUE TO STG PRES GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STG
CAA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAY NEED SCA OR MINIMAL
GALE FOR LATE THURS/EARLY FRI AS SFC LOW INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154-
170.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 131512
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. A SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE BITTER COLD FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PROVIDE
THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH BEST OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA. HAVE INITIALIZED THE QPF GRIDS WITH BLEND OF NAM AND
GFS. WILL MANUALLY MAKE SLIGHT INCREASE QPF OVER THE NORTHWEST IN
AREA OF GREATEST OMEGA. HAVE USE A 12:1 RATIO TO GENERATE SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM QPF GRIDS. WILL ALSO USE A MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND
SKY COVER. HAVE USED THE GMOS FOR WIND. HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING STORM OVER THE
MARITIMES USHERING IN A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DURING WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES MIDDAY ON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE WIND SHOULD
QUICKLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TEMPORARILY LESSENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING
BY SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS DO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SREF IS FURTHEST NORTH WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TAKING THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH. TEND TO THINK THE SREF IS TOO FAR
NORTH. AS A RESULT ANY SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE THESE AREAS MAY MISS OUT TOO.
FOR NOW WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. BEHIND THIS LOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA LATER THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE FOR THE START OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE DRIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN A NW FLOW OF BITTER AIR INTO SATURDAY. DAY TIME HIGHS
SHOULD STAY BELOW ZERO OVER MANY NORTH AREAS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE SOME ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THIS AFTERNOON THEN IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ON THURSDAY BGR & BHB MAY SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. ALL
AREAS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH BLEND OF THE NAM12
AND GFS40. WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES:
HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE SWAN NAM/GFS FOR WAVES WHICH
APPEARED TO HANDLE WAVE FIELD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY BETTER.
SHORT TERM...AS WINDS STRENGTHEN BEHIND A MARITIME STORM ON WEDNESDAY
WILL ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR OFFSHORE ZONES AND SCA FOR INTRA
COASTAL ZONE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE WATERS FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO
BECOME AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...LULOFS
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...FOSTER/MIGNONE/LULOFS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 131503
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1003 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND LOW FORMS OFF THE EAST
COAST. THE COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK OUT TO SEA TONIGHT AS THE GREAT
LAKES LOW MOVES DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT...USHERING IN VERY COLD AIR ON VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MARITIMES WILL PROVIDE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW ARRIVES FROM THE MID WEST ON THURSDAY THEN EXITS THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR THIS
AFTN...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPS LOOK GOOD TOO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION;
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING AS THE UPR LVL RIDGE
ALSO PUSHES TO OUR E. LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED CD FNT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY
LOW FORMS OFF THE E COAST. DRY WX THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
SCT -SHSN OVER SRN AREAS WITH -SHSN LIKELY OVER MORE NRN SECTIONS
OF THE FA. ALONG THE COAST AN ONSHORE WIND MAY CAUSE A MIX OF
-SHRASN AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THE NEAR TERM FCST.
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA AND EXTRAPOLATE TO THE
FCST FOR TDA. NO REAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA TNGT WITH NO REAL IMPACT ON OUR
WX. THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY,
ALSO WITH LIMITED IMPACT ON THE FA. HOWEVER, THE TRAILING CD FNT
INTENSIFIES AS ARCTIC AIR CATCHES UP TO IT AND CLASHES WITH THE
RELATIVELY MILDER AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE FNT ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
THE ARCTIC CD FNT SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TNGT. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH WINDS QUICKLY PICKING UP
AND BECOMING VERY GUSTY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCT TO OCCASIONAL -SHSN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY
OVER UPSLOPE REGIONS. ALSO SNOW SQUALLS ARE PSBL AS THE ARCTIC AIR
INVADES THE FA LATE TNGT. THIS COULD CAUSE A QUICK BURST OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW. BETWEEN THE -SHSN AND SNOW SQUALLS EXPECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THRU TNGT TO TOTAL AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG THE COAST...AROUND AN INCH OVER ADJACENT SRN ZONES...AN
INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TO SOUTHWEST NH AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE N AND MT ZONES. WITH SQUALLS THERE ALWAYS COULD BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT PUT UP ANY
ADVISORIES THOUGH MAY OPT TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE DRASTIC CHANGE IN WX WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS THOUGH DID HAVE TO ADJUST THE
POP UP QUITE A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VERY ACTIVE CD FNT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD WITH NUMERICALS ADVERTISING A
CONTINUATION OF WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH. LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO EMERGE. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS THE EASTERN TROUGH LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR FREQUENT
REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR. SEVERAL IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH
THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OFFER THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST
UVM AND QPF EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR EAST OFFSHORE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OFFERS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...TREND THE
PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN FOR A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH LEAVING ONLY
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST COASTAL MAINE AT THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD. YET A THIRD SYSTEM APPEARS IN
THE OFFING FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SIGNS WE MAY REMAIN LOCKED DEEP INTO THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CIG THIS AFTERNOON THEN IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR
TNGT AS A CD FNT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS STRONG CD FNT WILL
USER IN STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT WITH -SHSN
AND SCT SNOW SQUALLS WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LWR CONDITIONS TO LIFR
WITH A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NW WIND WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT LIKELY WEDNESDAY. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW ON THU PRIMARILY AT
/KCON/ AND /KPSM/.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS AT THIS
TIME BUT WIND GUSTS AND SEAS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS LATER TDA INTO
EARLY TNGT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CD FNT. AS THIS FNT INTENSIFIES
AND MOVES THRU LATE TNGT A VERY STRONG NW FLOW WILL SET UP AS VERY
COLD AIR QUICKLY OVERTAKES THE REGION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TNGT. WILL PUT UP A GLW BEGINNING AT
4 AM.
WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA AND EXTRAPOLATE TO THE
FCST FOR TDA. NO REAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE TWO DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEMS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154-
170.
&&
$$
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