|
Table S–1. Budget Totals
(Dollar amounts in billions)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Budget Totals: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
2,407 |
2,540 |
2,662 |
2,798 |
2,955 |
3,104 |
3,307 |
Outlays |
2,655 |
2,784 |
2,902 |
2,985 |
3,049 |
3,157 |
3,246 |
Deficit(–)/Surplus(+) |
−248 |
−244 |
−239 |
−187 |
−94 |
−54 |
+61 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) |
13,061 |
13,761 |
14,515 |
15,306 |
16,112 |
16,938 |
17,786 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Budget Totals as a Percent of GDP: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
18.4% |
18.5% |
18.3% |
18.3% |
18.3% |
18.3% |
18.6% |
Outlays |
20.3% |
20.2% |
20.0% |
19.5% |
18.9% |
18.6% |
18.3% |
Deficit(–)/Surplus(+) |
−1.9% |
−1.8% |
−1.6% |
−1.2% |
−0.6% |
−0.3% |
+0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table S–2. Discretionary Funding by Category
(Net budget authority; dollar amounts in billions)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
Change from
2007 |
Actual |
Current Law 1 |
Request |
Dollar |
Percent |
Base Discretionary: |
|
|
|
|
|
Security Funding 2 |
474.2 |
500.4 |
553.9 |
+53.5 |
10.7% |
Non-Security Funding |
369.1 |
372.4 |
375.9 |
+3.6 |
1.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Discretionary |
843.4 |
872.8 |
929.8 |
+57.0 |
6.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Enacted Supplemental and Emergency Funding: |
|
|
|
|
|
Global War on
Terror |
120.4 |
70.0 |
|
|
|
Hurricane Response |
24.7 |
0.2 |
|
|
|
Pandemic Influenza
Preparedness |
6.1 |
— |
|
|
|
Border Security
and Other |
2.2 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Enacted |
153.3 |
72.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Requested Supplemental and Emergency Funding: |
|
|
|
|
|
Global War on
Terror |
|
99.6 |
145.2 |
|
|
Hurricane Response |
|
3.4 |
— |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Requested |
|
103.0 |
145.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discretionary
Outyears |
(Net budget authority
in billions of dollars) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
Base Discretionary: |
|
|
|
|
|
Security Funding 3 |
581.1 |
597.0 |
604.6 |
615.0 |
|
Non-Security Funding 4 |
379.7 |
383.4 |
387.3 |
391.2 |
|
Total, Discretionary |
964.7 |
980.4 |
991.9 |
1,006.2 |
|
Supplemental and Emergency Funding: |
|
|
|
|
|
Global War on Terror |
50.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 Base funding levels are equal to the amounts enacted in the 2007 Department of Defense and Homeland Security Acts with other Government operations equal to the estimated full-year funding levels provided by P.L. 109-289, Division B, as amended. These levels are adjusted to reflect the current congressional discretionary topline of $872.8 billion, with the funding difference allocated among the categories.
2 This category is comprised of funding for the Department
of Defense, homeland security activities Government-wide (see Table
S-4), and funding for international affairs (Function 150).
3 Department of Defense levels
are consistent with the Future Years Defense Plan, and the homeland
security levels are consistent with the Future Years Homeland Security
Plan.
4 These amounts exclude
the budgetary effects of the Administration's reauthorization proposal of
the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). That proposal would
transform the current tax-financing system for FAA to a cost-based
user-fee system. For more information, see the Transportation chapter
in this volume and related sections in the Appendix and Analytical Perspectives volumes of the Budget. If this proposal were enacted, the
Administration would adjust its discretionary cap proposal downward
in these years to reflect the offsetting collections that would
result from this user-based fee system.
Table S–3. Discretionary Funding by Major Agency
(Net budget authority in billions of dollars)
Agency |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
Actual |
Request |
Current Law 1 |
Request |
Agriculture |
21.1 |
19.7 |
19.6 |
20.2 |
Commerce |
6.4 |
6.1 |
5.6 |
6.6 |
Defense |
410.7 |
439.3 |
429.6 |
481.4 |
Education |
56.5 |
54.4 |
56.0 |
56.0 |
Energy |
23.6 |
23.6 |
22.8 |
24.3 |
Health and Human
Services |
69.1 |
67.6 |
69.1 |
69.3 |
Homeland Security |
30.7 |
30.9 |
32.0 |
34.3 |
Housing and Urban
Development |
34.1 |
33.6 |
34.7 |
35.2 |
Interior |
10.8 |
10.5 |
10.3 |
10.6 |
Justice |
21.1 |
19.5 |
19.4 |
20.2 |
Labor |
11.3 |
10.9 |
11.7 |
10.6 |
State and Other
International Programs |
30.2 |
33.9 |
28.7 |
35.0 |
Transportation |
14.6 |
13.2 |
10.7 |
12.1 |
Treasury |
11.4 |
11.6 |
11.4 |
12.1 |
Veterans Affairs |
32.9 |
35.7 |
33.2 |
39.4 |
Corps of Engineers |
5.3 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
Environmental
Protection Agency |
7.6 |
7.3 |
7.5 |
7.2 |
Executive Office
of the President |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
Judicial Branch |
5.3 |
5.9 |
5.3 |
6.1 |
Legislative Branch |
3.8 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
4.4 |
National Aeronautics
and Space Administration |
16.3 |
16.8 |
16.2 |
17.3 |
National Science
Foundation |
5.6 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
6.4 |
Small Business
Administration |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
Social Security
Administration |
7.4 |
7.9 |
7.6 |
7.9 |
Other Agencies |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Discretionary Spending |
843.4 |
871.0 |
852.8 |
929.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Note: Amounts exclude enacted and requested supplemental
and emergency funding.
1 Base funding levels are equal to the amounts enacted in the 2007 Department of Defense and Homeland Security Acts with other Government operations equal to the estimated full-year funding levels provided by P.L. 109-289, Division B, as amended.
Table S–4. Homeland Security Funding by Agency
(Budget authority in millions of dollars)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
|
Actual |
Supplemental/ Emergency |
Current Law 1 |
Supplemental/ Emergency 2 |
Request |
Supplemental/
Emergency 2 |
Homeland Security Funding: 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture |
598 |
— |
523 |
— |
718 |
— |
Commerce |
181 |
— |
1,193 |
— |
219 |
— |
Defense (DOD) |
16,477 |
1,031 |
16,538 |
— |
17,465 |
— |
Energy |
1,701 |
— |
1,695 |
— |
1,833 |
— |
Health and Human
Services |
4,352 |
— |
4,313 |
— |
4,424 |
— |
Homeland Security |
25,156 |
1,416 |
26,876 |
1,816 |
29,671 |
223 |
Justice |
2,996 |
30 |
3,090 |
96 |
3,331 |
85 |
State |
1,107 |
— |
1,239 |
— |
1,406 |
— |
Treasury |
114 |
1 |
109 |
3 |
117 |
— |
Transportation |
182 |
— |
179 |
— |
200 |
— |
Veterans Affairs |
299 |
— |
245 |
— |
270 |
— |
Environmental
Protection Agency |
129 |
— |
133 |
— |
153 |
— |
General Services
Administration |
99 |
— |
74 |
— |
42 |
— |
Intelligence Community
Management Account |
56 |
— |
56 |
— |
58 |
— |
National Aeronautics
and Space Administration |
213 |
— |
199 |
— |
194 |
— |
National Science
Foundation |
344 |
— |
344 |
— |
375 |
— |
Nuclear Regulatory
Commission |
79 |
— |
66 |
— |
69 |
— |
Smithsonian Institution |
83 |
— |
80 |
— |
93 |
— |
Social Security
Administration |
176 |
— |
194 |
— |
217 |
— |
Other Agencies |
296 |
— |
256 |
— |
256 |
— |
Total, Homeland Security Funding |
54,638 |
2,478 |
57,402 |
1,915 |
61,111 |
308 |
Less, Defense-Military
(DOD) |
−16,477 |
−1,031 |
−16,538 |
— |
−17,465 |
— |
Less, Mandatory
Homeland Security Funding 4 |
−2,257 |
— |
−3,489 |
— |
−2,290 |
— |
Less, Discretionary
Fee-Funded Activities |
−3,514 |
— |
−4,397 |
— |
−4,986 |
— |
Net Non-DOD Discretionary Homeland Security |
32,390 |
1,447 |
32,978 |
1,915 |
36,370 |
308 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 Funding levels are equal to the amounts enacted in the 2007 Department of Defense and Homeland Security Acts with other Government operations equal to the estimated full-year funding levels provided by P.L. 109-289, Division B, as amended.
2 Inlcudes $1.7 billion in fuding enacted in the 2007 Homeland Security and Defense Acts. 2007 and 2008 also include an additional $0.2 billion and $0.3 billion, respectively, in the Administration's pending supplemental requests for the Global War on Terror.
3 For more detail on homeland security funding, consult
the Homeland Security Funding Analysis chapter in the Analytical Perspectives volume of the Budget.
Dollar amounts in this table are rounded to the nearest million at
the account level, which accounts for any discrepancies with the Analytical Perspectives chapter.
4 Mandatory homeland
security programs include $1 billion from anticipated spectrum auction
receipts provided in the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 for the Department
of Commerce to make grants to public safety agencies for communications
interoperability purposes.
Table S–5. Mandatory Proposals
(In millions of dollars)
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
Total |
2008–2012 |
2008–2017 |
Mandatory Proposals, including Savings and Augmentations: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reauthorize Farm
Bill |
— |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
2,500 |
5,000 |
Reauthorize Food
Stamp Program: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Restrict Food
Stamp Categorical Eligibility |
— |
−63 |
−132 |
−136 |
−139 |
−141 |
−611 |
−1,360 |
Exclude retirement
accounts from Food Stamp asset test |
— |
44 |
89 |
138 |
141 |
144 |
556 |
1,323 |
Exclude special
military pay from Food Stamp income test |
— |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
10 |
Food Safety and
Inspection Service User Fees |
— |
−96 |
−98 |
−100 |
−102 |
−104 |
−500 |
−1,053 |
Grain Inspection,
Packers and Stockyards Administration User Fees |
— |
−22 |
−22 |
−23 |
−23 |
−24 |
−115 |
−242 |
Crop Insurance
User Fee |
— |
— |
−15 |
−15 |
−15 |
−15 |
−60 |
−135 |
Animal Welfare
Fee |
— |
−9 |
−13 |
−13 |
−14 |
−14 |
−63 |
−142 |
Total, Agriculture |
— |
355 |
310 |
352 |
349 |
347 |
1,712 |
3,401 |
Defense: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase National
Defense Strategic Materials Stockpile Sales |
— |
−69 |
−145 |
−198 |
−145 |
−25 |
−582 |
−583 |
Education: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reform the Federal
Student Aid Programs: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase the Pell
Grant Maximum Award to $5,400 over Five Years |
— |
532 |
2,375 |
3,256 |
4,133 |
5,039 |
15,335 |
43,058 |
Increase Academic
Competitiveness Grant awards by 50 percent |
— |
72 |
308 |
373 |
317 |
8 |
1,078 |
1,078 |
Increase Aggregate
Loan Limits and Annual Limits for Undergraduate Third-Year and Beyond
Students |
— |
68 |
151 |
187 |
205 |
259 |
870 |
2,550 |
Reduce Lender
Subsidy Payments by 50 basis points |
— |
−688 |
−2,165 |
−2,558 |
−2,792 |
−2,986 |
−11,189 |
−29,494 |
Increase Lender
Risk Sharing and Improve Program Efficiency |
— |
−776 |
−160 |
−175 |
−189 |
−202 |
−1,502 |
−2,715 |
Increase Lender
Consolidation Fee |
— |
−56 |
−159 |
−186 |
−210 |
−234 |
−845 |
−2,309 |
Recall Federal
Perkins Loan Revolving Funds |
— |
−419 |
−498 |
−713 |
−814 |
−779 |
−3,223 |
−6,358 |
Adjust Guaranty
Agency Default Retention Rates |
— |
−1,370 |
−173 |
−188 |
−205 |
−217 |
−2,153 |
−3,454 |
Adopt Unit Cost
Basis for Guaranty Agency Fees |
— |
−1,018 |
−37 |
−53 |
−58 |
−56 |
−1,222 |
−1,572 |
Other Student
Loan Reforms |
— |
2 |
3 |
−12 |
−22 |
−64 |
−93 |
−913 |
Net impact |
— |
−3,653 |
−355 |
−68 |
364 |
768 |
−2,944 |
−128 |
Energy: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Repeal Oil and
Gas Research and Development Program |
— |
−20 |
−40 |
−50 |
−50 |
−50 |
−210 |
−460 |
Health and Human
Services (HHS): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adopt Medicare
Reforms |
— |
−4,696 |
−9,113 |
−13,077 |
−17,463 |
−21,695 |
−66,044 |
−252,432 |
Medicaid/State
Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adopt Medicaid
Reforms |
— |
–1,925 |
–2,170 |
–2,385 |
–2,680 |
–2,850 |
–12,010 |
–29,090 |
Augment Medicaid |
35 |
885 |
205 |
— |
— |
— |
1,090 |
1,090 |
Reauthorize SCHIP |
— |
710 |
1,095 |
620 |
890 |
845 |
4,160 |
9,680 |
Net Impact |
35 |
−330 |
−870 |
−1,765 |
−1,790 |
−2,005 |
−6,760 |
−18,320 |
Reduce Social
Services Block Grant |
— |
— |
−425 |
−495 |
−500 |
−500 |
−1,920 |
−4,420 |
Temporary Assistance
for Needy Families (TANF) |
— |
— |
240 |
296 |
309 |
326 |
1,171 |
2,768 |
Title V Abstinence
Education Program |
5 |
25 |
44 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
218 |
468 |
Food and Drug
Administration Re-Inspection and Export Certification Fees |
— |
−27 |
−28 |
−28 |
−29 |
−30 |
−142 |
−302 |
Foster Care District
of Columbia Federal Medical Assistance Percentage Rate |
— |
5 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
27 |
62 |
Foster Care Child
Welfare Program Option |
— |
8 |
5 |
−4 |
44 |
−47 |
6 |
−1 |
Child Support
Enforcement |
— |
5 |
8 |
6 |
1 |
−1 |
19 |
4 |
Total, HHS |
40 |
−5,010 |
−10,134 |
−15,012 |
−19,373 |
−23,896 |
−73,425 |
−272,173 |
Housing and Urban
Development (HUD): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ginnie Mae Premium
Increase |
— |
−46 |
−46 |
−46 |
−46 |
−46 |
−230 |
−460 |
Government-Sponsored
Enterprises Oversight Fee |
— |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−30 |
−60 |
Total, HUD |
— |
−52 |
−52 |
−52 |
−52 |
−52 |
−260 |
−520 |
Interior: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge Lease Bonuses: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State of Alaska’s
Share: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
— |
−3,502 |
−2 |
−503 |
−3 |
−4,010 |
−4,025 |
Expenditures |
— |
— |
3,502 |
2 |
503 |
3 |
4,010 |
4,025 |
Federal Share: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
— |
−3,502 |
−2 |
−503 |
−3 |
−4,010 |
−4,025 |
Net Impact |
— |
— |
−3,502 |
−2 |
−503 |
−3 |
−4,010 |
−4,025 |
Match National
Park Centennial Challenge Fund Gift Receipts |
— |
20 |
55 |
80 |
100 |
100 |
355 |
855 |
Return to Net
Receipts Sharing |
— |
−41 |
−47 |
−46 |
−44 |
−49 |
−227 |
−447 |
Amend Bureau of
Land Management (BLM) Federal Land Sale Authority |
— |
−5 |
−28 |
−40 |
−70 |
−44 |
−186 |
−334 |
Repeal Energy
Policy Act Fee Prohibition and Mandatory Permit Funds |
— |
−36 |
−37 |
−38 |
−36 |
−37 |
−184 |
−309 |
Recover Pick-Sloan
Project Cost |
— |
−23 |
−23 |
−23 |
−23 |
−23 |
−115 |
−230 |
Implement Friant
Settlement |
— |
14 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
82 |
167 |
Eliminate BLM
Range Improvement Fund |
— |
−7 |
−10 |
−10 |
−10 |
−10 |
−47 |
−97 |
Require Upfront
Payment of Coal Bonus Bids |
— |
−2 |
−121 |
−115 |
−54 |
−134 |
−426 |
4 |
Total, Interior |
— |
−80 |
−3,696 |
−177 |
−623 |
−183 |
−4,758 |
−4,416 |
Labor: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reform Pension
Benefit Guaranty Corporation Premiums |
— |
— |
−1,390 |
−1,387 |
−1,400 |
−1,295 |
−5,472 |
−10,569 |
Unemployment Insurance
Integrity Proposal 1 |
— |
— |
−484 |
−494 |
−351 |
−355 |
−1,684 |
−3,619 |
Reform Federal
Employees’ Compensation Act |
— |
−9 |
−23 |
−29 |
−33 |
−43 |
−137 |
−493 |
Reauthorize Trade
Adjustment Assistance |
— |
— |
6 |
18 |
24 |
25 |
73 |
123 |
Total, Labor |
— |
−9 |
−1,891 |
−1,892 |
−1,760 |
−1,668 |
−7,220 |
−14,558 |
Treasury: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Payment Transaction
Integrity |
— |
−273 |
−281 |
−290 |
−298 |
−306 |
−1,448 |
−3,105 |
Extend the Rum
Carryover for Puerto Rico |
— |
76 |
26 |
— |
— |
— |
102 |
102 |
Debt Collection:
Eliminate the 10-year Statute of Limitations on Non-tax Debt owed
to Federal Agencies |
— |
−11 |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−6 |
−35 |
−65 |
Total, Treasury |
— |
−208 |
−261 |
−296 |
−304 |
−312 |
−1,381 |
−3,068 |
Veterans Affairs: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pharmacy Co-Payments |
— |
−311 |
−304 |
−306 |
−307 |
−342 |
−1,570 |
−3,352 |
Income-Based Medical
Care Enrollment Fee |
— |
— |
−138 |
−134 |
−129 |
−125 |
−526 |
−1,094 |
Third-Party Insurance
Co-Payment Offset |
— |
−44 |
−44 |
−44 |
−43 |
−43 |
−218 |
−421 |
Total, Veterans
Affairs |
— |
−355 |
−486 |
−484 |
−479 |
−510 |
−2,314 |
−4,867 |
Army Corps of
Engineers: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Additional Recreation
User Fees, Lease Receipts, and Contributions: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
−7 |
−10 |
−13 |
−16 |
−19 |
−65 |
−192 |
Spending |
— |
— |
7 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
46 |
164 |
Net effect |
— |
−7 |
−3 |
−3 |
−3 |
−3 |
−19 |
−28 |
Commodity Futures
Trading Commission: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
User Fees |
— |
−86 |
−89 |
−92 |
−95 |
−99 |
−461 |
−1,009 |
Environmental
Protection Agency: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pesticide and
Pre-Manufacturing Notification fees |
— |
−70 |
−65 |
−68 |
−74 |
−65 |
−342 |
−682 |
Federal Communications
Commission (FCC): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spectrum License
Fee Authority |
— |
−50 |
−150 |
−300 |
−300 |
−400 |
−1,200 |
−3,628 |
Auction Prospective
Ancillary Terrestrial Component Spectrum |
— |
−150 |
−150 |
−150 |
−150 |
−150 |
−750 |
−1,500 |
Extend Spectrum
Auction Authority |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−200 |
−200 |
−1,200 |
Auction Domestic
Satellite Spectrum |
−130 |
−252 |
−105 |
−100 |
−100 |
−75 |
−632 |
−690 |
Eliminate Telecommunications
Development Fund |
— |
−5 |
−6 |
−7 |
−7 |
−7 |
−32 |
−67 |
Total, FCC |
−130 |
−457 |
−411 |
−557 |
−557 |
−832 |
−2,814 |
−7,085 |
Office of Personnel
Management (OPM): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Federal Employees
Health Benefits Program Proposals |
— |
−38 |
−140 |
−240 |
−318 |
−382 |
−1,118 |
−3,595 |
Improve Equity
and Administration of the Federal Retirement System |
— |
3 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
53 |
162 |
Replace Non-Foreign
Cost of Living Adjustment with Locality Pay |
— |
−1 |
−1 |
−1 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
109 |
Total, OPM |
— |
−36 |
−133 |
−230 |
−303 |
−361 |
−1,063 |
−3,324 |
Social Security
Administration: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Temporarily Extend
Length of Time-Limited Supplemental Security Income Eligibility for
Refugees |
— |
56 |
55 |
55 |
— |
— |
166 |
166 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total, Mandatory Proposals, including Savings and
Augmentations |
−90 |
−9,700 |
−17,396 |
−18,773 |
−23,106 |
−26,940 |
−95,915 |
−309,334 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social Security Personal Accounts (Off-Budget) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
29,348 |
29,348 |
637,441 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outlay Effects of Tax Proposals: 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Improve the Health
Coverage Tax Credit |
— |
4 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
55 |
139 |
Child Tax Credit: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clarify uniform
definition of a child |
— |
−55 |
−59 |
−75 |
−71 |
−72 |
−332 |
−785 |
Reduce computational
complexity of refundable child tax credit |
— |
— |
−375 |
−388 |
−400 |
−417 |
−1,580 |
−3,773 |
Earned Income
Tax Credit (EITC): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clarify uniform
definition of a child |
— |
−127 |
−137 |
−174 |
−165 |
−169 |
−772 |
−1,824 |
Simplify EITC
eligibility requirement regarding filing status, presence of children,
and work and immigration status |
— |
−210 |
33 |
17 |
17 |
14 |
−129 |
−104 |
Provide a flat
$15,000 deduction for family coverage ($7,500 for individual coverage)
for those with and who purchase health insurance |
— |
— |
231 |
4,629 |
4,705 |
4,715 |
14,280 |
37,886 |
Total, Outlay
Effects of Tax Proposals |
— |
−388 |
−297 |
4,021 |
4,100 |
4,086 |
11,522 |
31,539 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other Mandatory Proposals and Indirect Effects: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Transfer of Royalty
Oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve |
— |
— |
— |
903 |
— |
— |
903 |
10,873 |
Disability Insurance
Impact of Increased Program Integrity Efforts |
— |
−17 |
−124 |
−360 |
−586 |
−634 |
−1,721 |
−4,536 |
Supplemental Security
Income Impact of Increased Program Integrity Efforts |
— |
−14 |
−385 |
−856 |
−1,061 |
−355 |
−2,671 |
−3,352 |
Enforce Windfall
Elimination Provision / Government Pension Offset (off-budget) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−142 |
−311 |
−453 |
−2,531 |
Require Full-time
Attendance for Child’s Social Security Benefits at Age 16 (off-budget) |
— |
−11 |
−87 |
−157 |
−163 |
−169 |
−587 |
−1,551 |
Replace Disability
Insurance/Worker’s Comp Offset with Uniform Offset (off-budget) |
— |
−4 |
−32 |
−77 |
−139 |
−218 |
−470 |
−1,085 |
Amend Federal
Employee Health Benefits Program Statute |
— |
27 |
89 |
147 |
196 |
230 |
689 |
2,163 |
Unemployment Insurance
Integrity Proposal 1 |
— |
— |
−58 |
−122 |
−126 |
−130 |
−436 |
−1,184 |
National Park
Centennial Challenge Fund (spending of gift receipts) 1 |
— |
20 |
55 |
80 |
100 |
100 |
355 |
855 |
Food Stamp Impact
of Commodity Supplemental Food Program Elimination |
— |
44 |
55 |
48 |
44 |
41 |
232 |
396 |
Impact of Replacing
Non-Foreign Cost of Living Adjustment with Locality Pay on Civil Service
Retirement and Disability Fund |
— |
−2 |
−8 |
−15 |
−23 |
−31 |
−79 |
−361 |
Cash Investment
Practices Modernization |
— |
−10 |
−10 |
−10 |
−10 |
−10 |
−50 |
−100 |
Federal Housing
Administration General and Special Risk Insurance Funds Impact of
Mark-to-Market Extension |
−9 |
−13 |
−16 |
−16 |
−15 |
−7 |
−67 |
−76 |
Morris K. Udall
Scholarship Fund |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
10 |
20 |
Forest County
Safety Net Payments |
— |
−467 |
135 |
118 |
57 |
143 |
−14 |
— |
Correct Trust
Accounting Deficiencies in Individual Indian Money Investments |
6 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
TANF Impact of
Social Services Block Grant Reduction |
— |
43 |
50 |
8 |
−43 |
−50 |
8 |
— |
Black Lung Disability
Trust Fund Refinancing: 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Black Lung Disability
Trust Fund |
— |
2,315 |
−437 |
−432 |
−424 |
−424 |
598 |
−3,089 |
Interest Payments
on Repayable Advances |
— |
−2,315 |
437 |
432 |
424 |
424 |
−598 |
3,089 |
Net Impact |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Foreign Labor
Certification Fee: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
−65 |
−65 |
−65 |
−65 |
−65 |
−325 |
−650 |
Spending |
— |
65 |
65 |
65 |
65 |
65 |
325 |
650 |
Net effect |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Total, Other Mandatory
Proposals and Indirect Effects |
−1 |
−402 |
−334 |
−307 |
−1,909 |
−1,399 |
−4,351 |
−469 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Grand Total |
−91 |
−10,490 |
−18,029 |
−15,058 |
−20,910 |
5,098 |
−59,389 |
359,191 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Memorandum: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outlay Effects
of Tax Extensions Assumed in Baseline: 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Child Tax Credit
Extension |
— |
— |
— |
— |
46 |
11,937 |
11,983 |
70,652 |
Earned Income
Tax Credit: Marriage Penalty Relief |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−366 |
1,623 |
1,257 |
8,966 |
Total |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−320 |
13,560 |
13,240 |
79,618 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 Affects both receipts and
outlays. Only the outlay effect is shown here. For receipt effects,
see Table S-6.
Table S–6. Effect of Proposals on Receipts
(In millions of dollars)
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
Total |
2008–2012 |
2008–2017 |
|
Make Permanent Certain Tax Relief Enacted in 2001 and 2003 (assumed
in baseline): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividends tax
rate structure |
344 |
683 |
695 |
−3,595 |
−13,789 |
1,491 |
−14,515 |
−89,973 |
Capital gains
tax rate structure |
— |
— |
— |
−3,405 |
−17,477 |
−7,269 |
−28,151 |
−79,059 |
Expensing for
small business |
— |
— |
— |
−3,728 |
−4,947 |
−3,376 |
−12,051 |
−20,158 |
Marginal individual
income tax rate reductions |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−71,892 |
−113,251 |
−185,143 |
−793,780 |
Child tax credit 1 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−5,265 |
−21,128 |
−26,393 |
−135,380 |
Marriage penalty
relief 1 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−5,380 |
−7,971 |
−13,351 |
−41,317 |
Education incentives |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−739 |
−1,336 |
−2,075 |
−9,673 |
Repeal of estate
and generation-skipping transfer taxes, and modification of gift taxes |
−156 |
−1,373 |
−2,290 |
−3,067 |
−26,845 |
−57,652 |
−91,227 |
−442,490 |
Other incentives
for families and children |
— |
— |
— |
6 |
−179 |
−866 |
−1,039 |
−5,341 |
Total, make permanent
certain tax relief enacted in 2001 and 2003 |
188 |
−690 |
−1,595 |
−13,789 |
−146,513 |
−211,358 |
−373,945 |
−1,617,171 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tax Incentives: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Simplify and encourage saving: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expand tax-free
savings opportunities |
— |
1,527 |
3,545 |
3,023 |
1,075 |
−1,314 |
7,856 |
−592 |
Consolidate employer-based
savings accounts |
— |
−80 |
−120 |
−132 |
−141 |
−150 |
−623 |
−1,484 |
Total, simplify
and encourage saving |
— |
1,447 |
3,425 |
2,891 |
934 |
−1,464 |
7,233 |
−2,076 |
Encourage entrepreneurship and investment: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase expensing
for small business |
— |
−1,597 |
−2,180 |
−1,541 |
−1,135 |
−847 |
−7,300 |
−10,095 |
Invest in health care: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provide a flat
$15,000 deduction for family coverage ($7,500 for individual coverage)
for those with and who purchase health insurance 1 |
— |
— |
−31,433 |
−38,892 |
−30,843 |
−20,033 |
−121,201 |
5,150 |
Expand and make
health savings accounts (HSAs) more flexible |
— |
−318 |
−593 |
−784 |
−937 |
−1,037 |
−3,669 |
−10,366 |
Improve the Health
Coverage Tax Credit 1 |
— |
−1 |
−3 |
−4 |
−5 |
−5 |
−18 |
−51 |
Allow the orphan
drug tax credit for certain pre-designation expenses |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
−1 |
Total, invest
in health care |
— |
−319 |
−32,029 |
−39,680 |
−31,785 |
−21,075 |
−124,888 |
−5,268 |
Provide incentives for charitable giving: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Permanently extend
tax-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions |
— |
−120 |
−255 |
−235 |
−171 |
−147 |
−928 |
−1,867 |
Permanently extend
enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory |
— |
−44 |
−96 |
−106 |
−116 |
−127 |
−489 |
−1,345 |
Extend permanently
the deduction for corporate donations of computer technology |
— |
−50 |
−118 |
−147 |
−154 |
−162 |
−631 |
−1,570 |
Permanently increase
limits on contributions of property interests made for conservation
purposes |
— |
−48 |
−35 |
−22 |
−18 |
−21 |
−144 |
−265 |
Permanently extend
basis adjustment to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated
property |
— |
−3 |
−15 |
−21 |
−25 |
−28 |
−92 |
−301 |
Reform excise
tax based on investment income of private foundations |
— |
−61 |
−91 |
−97 |
−103 |
−110 |
−462 |
−1,163 |
Repeal the $150
million limitation on qualified 501(c)(3) bonds |
— |
−2 |
−3 |
−9 |
−13 |
−14 |
−41 |
−104 |
Repeal certain
restrictions on the use of qualified 501(c)(3) bonds for residential
rental property |
— |
−2 |
−5 |
−10 |
−17 |
−24 |
−58 |
−286 |
Total, provide
incentives for charitable giving |
— |
−330 |
−618 |
−647 |
−617 |
−633 |
−2,845 |
−6,901 |
Strengthen education: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend permanently
the above-the-line deduction for qualified out-of-pocket classroom
expenses |
— |
−18 |
−180 |
−183 |
−185 |
−188 |
−754 |
−1,739 |
Allow the saver’s
credit for contributions to qualified tuition programs |
— |
−63 |
−163 |
−176 |
−189 |
−200 |
−791 |
−1,966 |
Total, strengthen
education |
— |
−81 |
−343 |
−359 |
−374 |
−388 |
−1,545 |
−3,705 |
Protect the environment: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend permanently
expensing of brownfields remediation costs |
61 |
−244 |
−400 |
−352 |
−342 |
−331 |
−1,669 |
−2,851 |
Eliminate the
volume cap for private activity bonds for water infrastructure |
— |
−1 |
−3 |
−5 |
−9 |
−13 |
−31 |
−184 |
Total, protect
the environment |
61 |
−245 |
−403 |
−357 |
−351 |
−344 |
−1,700 |
−3,035 |
Restructure assistance to New York City for continued recovery from
the attacks of September 11th: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provide tax incentives
for transportation infrastructure |
— |
−200 |
−200 |
−200 |
−200 |
−200 |
−1,000 |
−2,000 |
Total, tax incentives |
61 |
−1,325 |
−32,348 |
−39,893 |
−33,528 |
−24,951 |
−132,045 |
−33,080 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Simplify the Tax Laws for Families: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clarify uniform
definition of a child 1 |
17 |
64 |
48 |
31 |
40 |
15 |
198 |
350 |
Simplify EITC
eligibility requirement regarding filing status, presence of children,
and work and immigration status 1 |
— |
31 |
−25 |
−22 |
−22 |
−21 |
−59 |
−164 |
Reduce computational
complexity of refundable child tax credit 1 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Total, simplify
the tax laws for families |
17 |
95 |
23 |
9 |
18 |
−6 |
139 |
186 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Improve Tax Compliance: 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Expand information
reporting |
— |
232 |
1,075 |
1,848 |
2,488 |
2,903 |
8,546 |
28,849 |
Improve compliance
by businesses |
— |
143 |
91 |
38 |
21 |
20 |
313 |
421 |
Strengthen tax
administration |
— |
— |
— |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
17 |
Expand penalties |
— |
3 |
5 |
11 |
18 |
20 |
57 |
178 |
Total, improve
tax compliance |
— |
378 |
1,171 |
1,898 |
2,528 |
2,944 |
8,919 |
29,465 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Improve Tax Administration and Other Miscellaneous Proposals: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Implement IRS
administrative reforms and extend IRS authority to fund undercover
operations 5 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Eliminate the
special exclusion from unrelated business taxable income for gain
or loss on the sale or exchange of certain brownfields |
— |
2 |
14 |
28 |
28 |
23 |
95 |
126 |
Limit related
party interest deductions |
86 |
148 |
155 |
163 |
171 |
180 |
817 |
1,859 |
Repeal excise
tax on local telephone service 3 |
−552 |
−463 |
−148 |
−74 |
−74 |
−74 |
−833 |
−1,211 |
Modify financing
of the Airport and Airway trust fund 3 |
— |
— |
−6,407 |
−6,705 |
−7,005 |
−7,326 |
−27,443 |
−69,732 |
Anticipated receipt
of donations to the National Park Service through the National Park
Centennial Challenge Fund |
— |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
500 |
1,000 |
Transition from
the non-foreign COLA to locality pay for employees in non-foreign
areas |
— |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
15 |
50 |
Total, improve
tax administration and other miscellaneous proposals 2 |
−466 |
−212 |
−6,284 |
−6,485 |
−6,776 |
−7,092 |
−26,849 |
−67,908 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Improve Unemployment Insurance: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strengthen the
financial integrity of the unemployment insurance system by reducing
improper benefit payments and tax avoidance 3 |
— |
— |
29 |
29 |
−16 |
−64 |
−22 |
−1,469 |
Extend unemployment
insurance surtax 3 |
— |
1,073 |
1,542 |
1,580 |
1,617 |
1,633 |
7,445 |
1,526 |
Total, improve
unemployment insurance 3 |
— |
1,073 |
1,571 |
1,609 |
1,601 |
1,569 |
7,423 |
57 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Modify Energy Provisions: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Repeal reduced
recovery period for natural gas distribution lines |
— |
52 |
88 |
107 |
119 |
106 |
472 |
906 |
Modify amortization
for certain geological and geophysical expenditures |
— |
15 |
55 |
81 |
67 |
56 |
274 |
582 |
Indirect effect
of energy proposals 4 |
— |
−45 |
−93 |
−163 |
−92 |
−98 |
−491 |
−1,019 |
Total, modify
energy provisions |
— |
22 |
50 |
25 |
94 |
64 |
255 |
469 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Promote Trade: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Implement free
trade agreements and modify other trade-related provisions 3 |
— |
−241 |
−502 |
−760 |
−994 |
−1,240 |
−3,737 |
−13,072 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend Expiring Provisions: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alternative Minimum
Tax relief for individuals |
−9,123 |
−47,922 |
11,431 |
— |
— |
— |
−36,491 |
−36,491 |
Research &
Experimentation (R&E) tax credit |
— |
−3,221 |
−7,071 |
−9,145 |
−10,601 |
−11,799 |
−41,837 |
−117,309 |
Work opportunity
tax credit |
— |
−71 |
−192 |
−162 |
−80 |
−51 |
−556 |
−582 |
First-time homebuyer
credit for DC |
— |
−1 |
−19 |
— |
— |
— |
−20 |
−20 |
Authority to issue
Qualified Zone Academy Bonds |
— |
−3 |
−8 |
−13 |
−18 |
−20 |
−62 |
−162 |
Deferral of gains
from sales of electric transmission property |
−63 |
−48 |
−52 |
−65 |
−39 |
5 |
−199 |
41 |
Disclosure of
tax return information related to terrorist activity 5 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Excise tax on
coal 3 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
1,081 |
Exception for
retirement plan distributions provided individuals called to active
duty for at least 179 days |
−* |
−* |
−* |
−* |
−* |
−* |
−* |
−* |
Total, extend
expiring provisions 3 |
−9,186 |
−51,266 |
4,089 |
−9,385 |
−10,738 |
−11,865 |
−79,165 |
−153,442 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total budget proposals, including
proposals assumed in the baseline 3 |
−9,386 |
−52,166 |
−33,825 |
−66,771 |
−194,308 |
−251,935 |
−599,005 |
−1,854,496 |
Total budget proposals, excluding
proposals assumed in the baseline 3 |
−9,574 |
−51,476 |
−32,230 |
−52,982 |
−47,795 |
−40,577 |
−225,060 |
−237,325 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*$500,000 or less.
1 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect
is shown here. For the outlay effect, see Table S-5.
2 “Tax gap”-related proposals.
3 Net of
income offsets.
4 Indirect effect on receipts
of proposed alternative fuels and fuel efficiency standards. These
proposals are discussed in the Energy chapter of the Budget volume.
5 No net budgetary impact.
Table S–7. Budget Summary by Category
(In billions of dollars)
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outlays: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discretionary: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Security |
566 |
622 |
658 |
655 |
617 |
609 |
603 |
Non-security |
451 |
458 |
456 |
443 |
439 |
436 |
435 |
Total, discretionary |
1,017 |
1,080 |
1,114 |
1,099 |
1,056 |
1,045 |
1,039 |
Mandatory: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social Security: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current program |
544 |
582 |
608 |
640 |
678 |
717 |
761 |
Personal accounts |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
29 |
Medicare |
325 |
367 |
386 |
409 |
434 |
475 |
482 |
Medicaid and SCHIP |
186 |
198 |
209 |
223 |
239 |
257 |
277 |
Other |
357 |
318 |
324 |
340 |
361 |
380 |
374 |
Total, mandatory |
1,412 |
1,465 |
1,527 |
1,613 |
1,712 |
1,829 |
1,923 |
Net interest |
227 |
239 |
261 |
274 |
281 |
284 |
285 |
Total outlays |
2,655 |
2,784 |
2,902 |
2,985 |
3,049 |
3,157 |
3,246 |
Receipts |
2,407 |
2,540 |
2,662 |
2,798 |
2,955 |
3,104 |
3,307 |
Deficit(–)/surplus(+) |
−248 |
−244 |
−239 |
−187 |
−94 |
−54 |
61 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On-budget deficit |
−434 |
−427 |
−451 |
−413 |
−339 |
−318 |
−187 |
Off-budget surplus |
186 |
183 |
212 |
226 |
245 |
264 |
248 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table S–8. Receipts by Source—Summary
(In billions of dollars)
|
2006 Actual |
Estimate |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual income
taxes |
1,043.9 |
1,168.8 |
1,246.6 |
1,331.1 |
1,428.3 |
1,517.3 |
1,636.6 |
Corporation income
taxes |
353.9 |
342.1 |
314.9 |
319.8 |
325.5 |
340.6 |
366.6 |
Social insurance
and retirement receipts |
837.8 |
873.4 |
927.2 |
974.2 |
1,029.3 |
1,085.7 |
1,138.8 |
(On-budget) |
(229.4) |
(239.2) |
(253.1) |
(262.8) |
(276.0) |
(289.9) |
(303.4) |
(Off-budget) |
(608.4) |
(634.1) |
(674.1) |
(711.4) |
(753.3) |
(795.8) |
(835.3) |
Excise taxes |
74.0 |
57.1 |
68.1 |
63.1 |
63.6 |
68.6 |
71.3 |
Estate and gift
taxes |
27.9 |
25.3 |
25.7 |
27.4 |
21.7 |
1.7 |
0.5 |
Customs duties |
24.8 |
26.8 |
29.2 |
30.7 |
32.7 |
34.3 |
35.7 |
Miscellaneous
receipts |
45.0 |
46.7 |
50.7 |
52.0 |
53.6 |
55.5 |
57.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total receipts |
2,407.3 |
2,540.1 |
2,662.5 |
2,798.3 |
2,954.7 |
3,103.6 |
3,307.3 |
(On-budget) |
(1,798.9) |
(1,906.0) |
(1,988.4) |
(2,086.9) |
(2,201.4) |
(2,307.8) |
(2,472.0) |
(Off-budget) |
(608.4) |
(634.1) |
(674.1) |
(711.4) |
(753.3) |
(795.8) |
(835.3) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table S–9. Comparison of Economic Assumptions
(Calendar years)
|
Projections |
Average 2007–2012 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
GDP (billions of current dollars): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Budget |
13,946 |
14,711 |
15,507 |
16,316 |
17,148 |
18,003 |
|
CBO January |
13,805 |
14,472 |
15,196 |
15,923 |
16,647 |
17,395 |
|
Blue Chip Consensus
January |
13,843 |
14,561 |
15,323 |
16,116 |
16,937 |
17,805 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP (chain-weighted): 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Budget |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
CBO January |
2.3 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
Blue Chip Consensus
January |
2.4 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Chain-weighted GDP Price Index: 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Budget |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
CBO January |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
Blue Chip Consensus
January |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Consumer Price Index (all-urban): 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Budget |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
CBO January |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
Blue Chip Consensus
January |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unemployment rate: 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Budget |
4.6 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
CBO January |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
Blue Chip Consensus
January |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest rates: 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
91-day Treasury bills: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Budget |
4.7 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
CBO January |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
Blue Chip Consensus
January |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10-year Treasury notes: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008 Budget |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
CBO January |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.1 |
Blue Chip Consensus
January |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Blue Chip Economic
Indicators, Aspen Publishers, Inc.
January 2007 Blue Chip Consensus forecast for 2007 and
2008; Blue Chip October 2006 long-run extension for 2009-2012.
1 Year-over-year percent change.
2 Annual averages, percent.
Table S–10. Federal Government Financing and Debt
(Dollar amounts in billions)
|
Actual 2006 |
Estimate |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
Financing: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unified budget
deficit (−)/surplus(+) |
−248 |
−244 |
−239 |
−187 |
−94 |
−54 |
61 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financing other
than borrowing from the public: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net purchases
of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad Retirement Investment
Trust (−) |
−2 |
−1 |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
Changes in: 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Treasury operating
cash balance (–) |
−16 |
7 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Checks outstanding,
etc. 2 |
13 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Seigniorage on
coins |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Credit net financing
disbursements (–): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Direct loan financing
accounts |
−5 |
−11 |
−17 |
−15 |
−18 |
−19 |
−20 |
Guaranteed loan
financing accounts |
21 |
−7 |
−7 |
−7 |
−6 |
−5 |
−4 |
Total, financing
other than borrowing from the public |
11 |
−10 |
−23 |
−21 |
−23 |
−23 |
−24 |
Total, requirement
to borrow from the public |
−237 |
−254 |
−262 |
−208 |
−118 |
−77 |
37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in debt
held by the public |
237 |
254 |
262 |
208 |
118 |
77 |
−37 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Changes in Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in debt
held by the public |
237 |
254 |
262 |
208 |
118 |
77 |
−37 |
Change in debt
held by Government accounts |
309 |
302 |
306 |
355 |
382 |
400 |
410 |
Change in other
factors |
3 |
* |
1 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
Total, change
in debt subject to statutory limitation |
549 |
557 |
568 |
565 |
502 |
480 |
375 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt issued by
Treasury |
8,426 |
8,982 |
9,550 |
10,114 |
10,614 |
11,092 |
11,465 |
Adjustment for
discount, premium, and coverage 3 |
−5 |
−5 |
−5 |
−3 |
−2 |
* |
2 |
Total, debt subject
to statutory limitation 4 |
8,420 |
8,977 |
9,545 |
10,111 |
10,612 |
11,092 |
11,467 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt Outstanding, End of Year: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Federal
debt: 5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt issued by
Treasury |
8,426 |
8,982 |
9,550 |
10,114 |
10,614 |
11,092 |
11,465 |
Debt issued by
other agencies |
26 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
Total, gross Federal
debt |
8,451 |
9,008 |
9,575 |
10,138 |
10,638 |
11,115 |
11,487 |
Held by: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt held by Government
accounts |
3,622 |
3,924 |
4,230 |
4,585 |
4,966 |
5,366 |
5,776 |
Debt held by the
public 6 |
4,829 |
5,083 |
5,345 |
5,554 |
5,671 |
5,748 |
5,711 |
As a percent of
GDP |
37.0% |
36.9% |
36.8% |
36.3% |
35.2% |
33.9% |
32.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* $500 million or less.
1 A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset)
is a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign.
An increase in checks outstanding (which is a liability) is also
a means of financing a deficit and therefore also has a positive sign.
2 Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest
payable on Treasury debt, uninvested deposit fund balances, allocations
of special drawing rights, and other liability accounts; and, as an
offset, cash and monetary assets (other than the Treasury operating
cash balance), other asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold.
3 Consists mainly of Federal
Financing Bank debt (which is not subject to limit), the unamortized
discount (less premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds
(other than zero-coupon bonds), and the unrealized discount on Government
account series securities.
4 The statutory debt limit is $8,965
billion, enacted on March 20, 2006.
5 Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon
bonds held by Government accounts are almost all measured at sales
price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt
securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury securities
in the Government account series are otherwise measured at face value
less unrealized discount (if any).
6 At the end of 2006, the Federal Reserve Banks held
$768.9 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the public held
$4,060.0 billion. Debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated
for future years.
|
|