000
FXAK69 PAFG 150149
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
449 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP SUB-TROPICAL WARM AIR NORTH ACROSS ALASKA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.
A COLD TROUGH POSITIONED OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA AND THE BERING SEA
WILL REMAIN WEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL MOVE NORTH
TO THE ARCTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT A
SMORGASBORD OF WINTER WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE FAR EAST INTERIOR. HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE. ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT HAS PRODUCED SOME
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING.

SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE IS RESULTING IN A STRONG
CHINOOK THROUGH THE PASSES WITH WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT. SOME VARIATION OF SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AK RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY SO THE CHINOOK WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS FARTHER NORTH ARE ALSO CREATING LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP WITH
READINGS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. IN FACT EIELSON AFB IS BASKING IN THE LOWER 40S
ABOVE ZERO...WHEREAS LESS THAN A WEEK AGO THEY COULDN`T EVEN GET
WARMER THAN 45 BELOW ZERO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL ROLL NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW/FREEZING RAIN/STRONG WINDS MUCH OF THE SAME AREA. COOLER
WEATHER IS ON TAP AFTER THIS LOW MOVES NORTH AS THE BERING SEA
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STATE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-
AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ226.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ225.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ245.
&&

$$

EWP JAN 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 150130
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE NEAR STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAD MAINTAINED A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE...A 966 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NORTH OF THE LOW
ACROSS EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WARM MOIST
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FRONT HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE COLD AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST HAS CREATED SOME BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OVER THE BERING
SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAS CREATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MOST OF BRISTOL BAY, ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK
ISLAND. AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA HAD WARMED
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. RAIN ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA SPREAD NORTH INTO THE REST
OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPED OVER THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND SUSITNA VALLEY IN THE MORNING. AREAS OF STRONG
WIND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN IN THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING. THE UPPER RIDGE
ALONG SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL MOVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE WARMER THAN NORMAL
AND WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LOCAL STRONG
EAST WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. WINDS ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM, THE HILLSIDE AND NEAR CORDOVA WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL
SPREAD WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING LATE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE DELTA COAST WILL END TONIGHT AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA FRIDAY AND STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY AND A POSSIBILITY OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG
THE BERING SEA COAST FRIDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE BERING WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAY. THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
PRIBILOFS WILL END EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. COOLER AIR OFF THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONE 101, 125, 135.
         BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE PRIBILOFS.
MARINE...STORM...120.
         GALE...125, 129, 130, 132, 138, 140, 141, 150, 170, 172, 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 142154 CCA
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1252 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS NW ALONG THE B.C.
COAST AND THE COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE. THIS RIDGE IS STRONG.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL REPEAT
THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF THE PRIOR 24 HRS, ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES
AND HEIGHT OF CLOUD COVER. NOTE THAT LOCATIONS THAT BURN OFF THE
LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP RADIATIVE FOG BEFORE SUNSET, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.

THE POLAR FRONT ZONE IS MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF. THE FRONTAL WAVES AND THE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY TURN TO THE NE AND TRACK TOWARD THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE
JET STREAM FEATURES AND THERMAL STRUCTURE BECOMING WEAK AND
DIFFUSE. BARRIER FLOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS IMPORTANT WITH
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS AT THE NWRN END OF OUR FCST DOMAIN. NOTE THE
HIGH WIND CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST DOMAIN, INCLUDING
CORDOVA, SHOULD NOT EXTEND TO THE YAKUTAT ZONE. THE LARGE SCALE
WARM ADVECTION CAN BE TRACED TO A SOURCE REGION WITHIN A SYNOPTIC
SCALE DISTANCE FROM HAWAII. THIS LOW LATITUDE OCEANIC SOURCE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGH WATER VAPOR AMOUNTS TO OUR
FORECAST DOMAIN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS AND A LACK OF
VENTILATION GIVING US A DEEPER AND WARMER THAN USUAL MARINE LAYER.

&&

.LONG TERM...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAKE ITS
FINAL DESTINATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
KEEPS ITS SOUTH TRACK ACROSS THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES INTO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN DIVERT IN
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING MID TO UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GULF AND DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY SENDS A
PRIMARY ENERGY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY AGREED WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY IN THIS SOUTHERN TRACK IS IN
QUESTION AS THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED
TROUGH INTO A STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY THEN
CONTINUES MARCHING SOUTHEAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS
INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL WEAKNESS OF THE TROUGH BUT NONE OF THE
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTS A SET UP OF THIS SOUTH TRACK AS STRONG AS
THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

PREFERRED TO LEAN OVER 50/50 WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS NEW GRIDS THEN THE 00Z ECMWF INTO THE
INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. THIS YIELDS AN
OVERALL AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIODS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH AN EXCEPTION TO THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHEN
THE RIDGE BREAKS ALLOWING THE COLD AIR SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY TOUCH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKING WEEK.

A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF...FAR WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WILL KEEP ITS TRACK TO NORTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EMBEDDED WEAK LOW EAST OF THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH
A FRONT TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTSIDE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...INCLUDING CROSS SOUND. COASTAL ZONES WILL
EXPERIENCE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AS WELL. ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. SNOW AMOUNT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS A BIG QUESTION DUE TO CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS. IF THE AIR IN
YUKON MAINTAINS COLD ENOUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
HAINES AND SKAGWAY SHOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY
A WARNING LEVEL FOR HAINES. STILL EXPECT MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR
THAT PERIODS. ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS TO THE EAST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
INTO YUKON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING OF
HIGH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN SIDE NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL POSE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HYDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-033-041-042.

$$

JBT/SJA

000
FXAK67 PAJK 142131
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1231 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS NW ALONG THE B.C.
COAST AND THE COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE. THIS RIDGE IS STRONG.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WILL REPEAT
THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF THE PRIOR 24 HRS, ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURES
AND HEIGHT OF CLOUD COVER. NOTE THAT LOCATIONS THAT BURN OFF THE
LOWER CIGS WILL DEVELOP RADIATIVE FOG BEFORE SUNSET, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.

THE POLAR FRONT ZONE IS MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF. THE FRONTAL WAVES AND THE FRONTS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY TURN TO THE NE AND TRACK TOWARD THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE
JET STREAM FEATURES AND THERMAL STRUCTURE BECOMING WEAK AND
DIFFUSE. BARRIER FLOW ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST IS IMPORTANT WITH
THE HIGHEST SPEEDS AT THE NWRN END OF OUR FCST DOMAIN. NOTE THE
HIGH WIND CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST DOMAIN, INCLUDING
CORDOVA, SHOULD NOT EXTEND TO THE YAKUTAT ZONE. THE LARGE SCALE
WARM ADVECTION CAN BE TRACED TO A SOURCE REGION WITHIN A SYNOPTIC
SCALE DISTANCE FROM HAWAII. THIS LOW LATITUDE OCEANIC SOURCE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGH WATER VAPOR AMOUNTS TO OUR
FORECAST DOMAIN WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS AND A LACK OF
VENTILATION GIVING US A DEEPER AND WARMER THAN USUAL MARINE LAYER.

&&

.LONG TERM...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WILL MAKE ITS
FINAL DESTINATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
KEEPS ITS SOUTH TRACK ACROSS THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES INTO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN DIVERT IN
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE INCOMING MID TO UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GULF AND DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY SENDS A
PRIMARY ENERGY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
SCENARIO IS GENERALLY AGREED WITH THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY IN THIS SOUTHERN TRACK IS IN
QUESTION AS THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF THE BASE OF THE ELONGATED
TROUGH INTO A STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY THEN
CONTINUES MARCHING SOUTHEAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS
INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL WEAKNESS OF THE TROUGH BUT NONE OF THE
OTHER MODELS SUGGESTS A SET UP OF THIS SOUTH TRACK AS STRONG AS
THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME.

PREFERRED TO LEAN OVER 50/50 WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS NEW GRIDS THEN THE 00Z ECMWF INTO THE
INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. THIS YIELDS AN
OVERALL AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIODS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTING MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH AN EXCEPTION TO THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHEN
THE RIDGE BREAKS ALLOWING THE COLD AIR SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND
SLIGHTLY TOUCH THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKING WEEK.

A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF...FAR WEST OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...WILL KEEP ITS TRACK TO NORTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AN EMBEDDED WEAK LOW EAST OF THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH
A FRONT TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WILL GENERATE GALE FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTSIDE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...INCLUDING CROSS SOUND. ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. SNOW AMOUNT WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS A BIG QUESTION DUE TO CONTINUED MILD CONDITIONS. IF THE AIR IN
YUKON MAINTAINS COLD ENOUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
HAINES AND SKAGWAY SHOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...POSSIBLY
A WARNING LEVEL FOR HAINES. STILL EXPECT MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR
THAT PERIODS. ANOTHER LOW FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS TO THE EAST. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
INTO YUKON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING OF
HIGH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN SIDE NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL POSE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HYDER AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-033-041-042.

$$

JBT/SJA

000
FXAK69 PAFG 141435
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
535 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MASSIVE UPR RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND DEEP LOW 400 NM
SW OF DUTCH HARBOR COMBINING TO PRODUCE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
MOST ALL OF THE CWA.

ELONGATED TROUGH DUTCH HARBOR TO KOTZEBUE WITH CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AND THEN MOVING NORTH
TO BE A 976 MB CENTER OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND BY 12Z THU AND TO
NEAR BARROW BY 12Z FRI. WARM FRONT...LARGELY ALOFT...MOVING FROM
CENTRAL INTERIOR PRESENTLY TO NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE BY THIS
EVENING.

THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFS...MOST NOTABLY IN HANDLING THE LOW AS
IT MOVES NORTH OF NORTON SOUND. GFS MOVES THIS FEATURE EWD MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE NAM OR ECMF. WE OPTED FOR THE FARTHER WEST
SOLUTION.

SHORT TERM THREATS CENTER ON VERY STRONG CHINOOK WINDS TO THE LEE
OF THE ALASKA RANGE CREST AND COPIOUS PRECIP...INCLUDING SOME
LIQUID...OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN INTERIOR.

IN THE MID RANGE...GENERAL AGREEMENT ON FALLING HEIGHTS AND COLDER
AIR RETURNING...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...OVER THE WEEKEND...THO THE
DETAILS DIFFER.

FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL HIGHEST IN ZONES 215 AND SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF ZONE 216. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING FREEZING RAIN EAST OF
ZONE 214...AND QPFS ARE NOT THAT SO...SO WE HAVE CNCLD THE WSW FOR
THIS ZONE. WATCHES FOR SOUTH SLOPES BROOKS RANGE ZONES UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS.

ZONES 221 AND SOUTHERN 219...ANY ABOVE FREEZING LAYERS FORECAST
TO BE WELL ELEVATED...ABOVE 3000 FEET. HENCE...FREEZING RAIN NOT
FELT TO BE A THREAT..THO SOME SLEET IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLEET
POSSIBLE ZONE 216 TOO.

HAVE ISSUE WWA FOR ISABEL PASS AS SOME PRECIP LIKELY BLOWING
ACROSS THE CREST...AND TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN.
THIS SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.

HIGH WIND WATCHES CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ALASKA
RANGE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF.

NORTH SLOPE REMAINS THE QUIET REGION...FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-
AKZ218-AKZ219.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

RT JAN 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 141434
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTH. A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE PANHANDLE KEEPING THE
DEVELOPING WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF FROM ADVECTING
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY LOW PRECIP RATES
TODAY...EXCEPT NEAR YAKUTAT WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE RAINFALL ALL DAY.
UNFORTUNATELY THE PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN QUITE CLOUDY TODAY EVEN
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE INCREASING IN STRENGTH AS THE WARM MOIST
AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE RELATIVELY
COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WARM OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS SEEN IN THE 12Z RAOBS FROM
PAYA AND PANT THIS MORNING. USED THE 12Z NAM/UKMET IN TODAYS
PACKAGE AS THEY HANDLED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BARRIER JET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT BETTER IN THE SLP FIELD THAN THE GFS.
ALSO THE 00Z/06Z GFS INITIALIZED TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS MID LEVEL
VORTICITY FIELD THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.

 FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ALL
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE
AND THERE IS NO REAL DRYING MECHANISM. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MIX AWAY THE LOW CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO ACT AS A CAP TO THE
ATMOSPHERE NOT ALLOWING ANY MOISTURE TO BE MOVED AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLE. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TODAY AS THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE WILL INDUCE A STRONG
SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE. THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT GALE FORCE WINDS THERE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE COASTAL BARRIER JET. LLJ AND SLP FIELD FROM
THE 00Z/06Z MODEL RUNS DONT SUPPORT STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. KEPT THE WIND ADVY FOR
AKZ017, BUT BELIEVE MAJORITY OF THE WIND ADVY GUSTS WILL BE WEST
OF YAKUTAT AS THE BARRIER JET DOES NOT BUILD EAST OF ICY BAY.
DROPPED WIND ADVY FOR AKZ022 AS LLJ HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN
STRENGTH IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS, BUT CROSS SOUND WILL
REMAIN LOCALLY WINDY THROUGH TONIGHT.

 FOR TONIGHT ANOTHER DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT A WEATHER FRONT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUITE
STRONG AND THIS WILL ACT TO SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THE WEATHER
FRONT. BUT WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND THE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE VERTICAL, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER MAY
RETREAT A LITTLE IN THE EARLY EVENING, HOWEVER IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK INTO THE INNER CHANNELS BY TONIGHT INDUCING AREAS OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS THE WEATHER FRONT
FALLS APART WITH GALES IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ADVECT ACROSS YAKUTAT LATE TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL HELP TO INDUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR YAKUTAT. WITH THE
WEAK WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT...COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE PRECIP RATES NEAR SITKA
AND PELICAN. WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT, THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FEET. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TODAYS SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONGTERM...IMPRESSIVE 500MB BLOCKING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE AS WELL AS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. YAKUTAT ZONE BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED TROF IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS WILL THE
WINDS WITH A THE APPROACH OF A 990MB LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA.

ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST. ECMWF DEVELOPS A 985MB LOW AND TRACKS IT
NORTH TOWARDS KODIAK WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A 99MB LOW ON A
SIMILAR TRACK BUT IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. GRIDS WHICH AT THIS
PERIOD WHERE AN ECMWF AND HPC BLEND HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN ZONES 23 AND 27 FOR SUNDAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE THE GFS BREAKS DOWN THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RATHER ABRUPTLY STARTING TUESDAY AND
DEVELOPS A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WOULD
BRING A RETURN TO COLD CONDITIONS IN THE PANHANDLE. USED A BLEND
OF NAM12 AND ECMWF FROM HAND OFF THROUGH DAY 3 AND A BLEND OF ECMWF
AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 8. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 BUT THEN DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR BREAKING
DOWN THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN BLOCKING RIDGE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN DECREASES INTO NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-033-036-041-042.

&&

$$

PSS/CCC

000
FXAK68 PAFC 141306 AAA
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE LOW COMPLEX CENTERED AROUND 50N
170W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE
SENDING MULTIPLE WAVES ACROSS SW ALASKA. A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICS CONTINUES TO POUR OVER THE
STATE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. WE WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS
FOR SPECIFICS DUE TO BETTER CONSISTENCY. SEVERAL LOWS SPIN UP ALONG A
170 KT JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW COMPLEX. THESE FEATURES
ROUND THE MAIN LOW AND END UP CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH
TIMING IS STILL THE BIGGEST QUESTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED FROM THE MAIN
LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH DUTCH HARBOR TO SOUTH OF
BETHEL. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AS THE NEXT LOW
APPROACHES THE AKPENN. THIS SECONDARY LOW CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY NEAR 38N 166W. PERIODS OF RAIN (OR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS) WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH. SUBTLE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION (FROM SE
TO S OR EVEN SW) WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
FALLS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. THIS
NEXT LOW COMING UP THIS EVENING HAS A 130 KT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE AN ALREADY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARNING LEVEL WINDS (WITH GUSTS UP TO
100 MPH) ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS).

LET THE WARM UP COMMENCE! LOCATIONS THAT ARE YET TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING WILL DO SO BY LATER TODAY. THE TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE FLOW
IS BRINGING VERY WARM AIR NORTHWARD...MAKING PEOPLE FORGET ABOUT THE
COLD SNAP THAT HELD SUCH A TIGHT GRIP ON US FOR SO LONG.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW FROM
NUNIVAK ISLAND TO THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH TONIGHT. STEADY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THIS LINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...MORE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE STRONG
GAP WINDS. THE SECOND STRONG LOW TAKES A VERY SIMILAR TO ITS
PREDECESSOR...APPROACHING THE AKPENN THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER JET STREAK SCREAMS OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WARM, WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS PERSISTS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
WEST AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE BERING SEA.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125 135.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120.
         GALE WARNING 125 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 170 172 175 179
                      351 352 412 413 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 179 185 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA

000
FXAK68 PAFC 140030
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THERE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF CANADA AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA CONTINUES TO STEER STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

A 964 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH A WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
HAD MOVED SNOW INTO BRISTOL BAY, EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF
BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL TURN
NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE NEAR DUTCH HARBOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER 970 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY. THE AREA OF
WARM AIR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN BERING
THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTHERN WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BERING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG 170W LONGITUDE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA....STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF SNOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SPREAD INTO REST OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH A
FEW AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TONIGHT AND OVER
MOST OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WEDNESDAY. NORTH WINDS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

SOUTHCENTRAL AK...
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER, MOISTER AIR
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO RAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND NORTHERN COPPER RIVER BASIN IS EXPECTED TO
GET THE MOST SNOW DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. ISOLATED AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS THE THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
RAIN. LOCAL GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE KENAI AND CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN AND DIG A
TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MOVE
THE CORE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL GULF INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONES 101 AND 125 ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM.
MARINE...STORM...120
         GALE...125, 130, 132, 150, 170, 172, 175, 176,179, 180, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 09

000
FXAK69 PAFG 132323
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
223 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...STILL ON TRACK WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FAST AND HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING OVER PACIFIC NW AND WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN HOLDING INTO WEEKEND. LONGWAVE TROUGH GENERALLY POSITIIONED
OVER DATELINE AND NOT CHANGING MUCH. STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVING
NORTH OVER THE STATE BRINGING SLUGS OF WARM AIR NORTH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WHILE CHINOOK FLOW OVER ALASKA RANGE HELPS TO WARM UP THE
EASTERN PORTION EVEN MORE...STILL EXPECT RECORD HIGH TEMPS
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS WED THRU FRI.

SURFACE...STRONG WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA 00Z WED
MOVING TO KUSKOKWIM RANGE CREST AND ALASKA RANGE CREST ABOUT 12Z
WED...THEN TO KOTZEBUE AND ACROSS BROOKS RANGE CREST 12Z
THU...WITH FRONT OCCLUDING WEST OF ANAKTUVUK BY THAT TIME. 979 LOW
FORMING ON FRONT OVER NE NORTON SOUND AND ELONGATING ALONG FRONT
TOWARD BROOKS RANGE. OCCLUSION PUSHING NORTHEAST THEREAFTER SO
FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM 120 MILES WEST OF BETHEL TO 60 EAST
OF NOME TO 80 EAST OF KOTZEBUE TO 100 EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY BY 00Z
FRI...LAYING IN AN EXTENDED TROUGH OVER INNER COASTAL AREAS.

MODELS...AGREE FAIRLY WELL DESPITE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SITUATION. SOME
DIFFERENCE THU BETWEEN GFS AND NAM EGARDING POSITION OF INCOMING
SHORT WAVE TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT A MINOR ISSUE AT THIS POINT.
PROBABLY OF MORE CONCERN IS THE GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR FAIRBANKS
APPEAR TOO LOW FOR WEDNESDAY SO WILL FAVOR NAM NUMBERS THOUGH
MAYBE A TAD COOLER.

NORTH SLOPE SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP ENOUGH WED EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING
SNOW...AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES WILL BE A CONCERN OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS THU OR THU NIGHT WHERE FRESH SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR.

HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ZONES 212 214 215 AND 216
WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR SNOW THEN FREEZING
RAIN...ESPECIALLY THROUGH WED. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FARTHER
NORTH SO HAVE POSTED WATCHES FOR ZONES 217 219 AND 218 (EAST OF
CHANDALAR LAKE). ZONES FARTHER WEST MAY NOT HAVE AS SEROUS
WEATHER...FAR WESTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN IN COLDER AIR AND WILL
HAVE SOME NORTH WINDS BUT NOT AS MUCH SNOW POTENTIAL...WHILE
ZONES 208 209 210 211 MAY GET ENOUGH SNOW BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
IN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS.

HAVE CONTINUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 225 AND 226 THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON...AND ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THEM WED NIGHT AND FRI.
ZONE 223 HAVE EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WED NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JL JAN 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 132128
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1228 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SHORT TERM... TWO HUGE FEATURES DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR SE
ALASKA 1)MAJOR UPR LOW CENTERED NEAR 48N 170W AND 2)THE U.S. WEST
COAST RIDGE WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 590 HPA HIGH CENTER JUST
OFF KSFO. A MONDO JET AT 250 MB IS CONTINUOUS FROM THE MIDDLE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN TO AN EXIT NEAR 30N 150W. IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT THE PLANETARY LOW IS IN THE UPR LEFT QUAD OF THIS
JET OVR A 964 MB STORM. ALL THIS MEANS IS HIGH HEIGHTS FOR WARM
TEMPS OVR US IN THE UPR RIDGE BUT ENOUGH FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO GET US WET AT TIMES. NO WARNINGS OUT NOW BUT GOT ALL
THE IMPACTS OF WATER ON SNOWPACK COVERED IN A WELL WRITTEN SPS
FROM YESTERDAY. MOIST CONDITIONS OVR SNOW GOT US THINKING ABOUT
FOG TONIGHT AFTER THE RAIN FROM THE WARM FRONT. BY TRANSITION
TIME THU AFTERNOON SFC RIDGE AXIS OVR INSIDE WATERS TO YAKUTAT
WITH A HECK OF A LOW LEVEL FETCH AIMED AT THE EASTERN GULF COAST
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES AND SHOULD BE A MONDO SWELL. WAS ABLE
TO ACCEPT THE AK-GFS-40 TODAY AND CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST SET.


.LONG TERM...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE PACKAGE.
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,

LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATN OVR HAS SET UP WITH 500 MB CENTRAL
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST FM THE STATE OF CA TO ALG THE
PNHDL.  LOWS TO EAST AND WEST DO NOT QUITE FORM THE CLASSIC
"OMEGA" SHAPE, BUT THIS PATN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE.  THE RIDGE
WILL TAKE FOUR DAYS TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BORDER OF B.C.,
BUT DURING THIS DRIFT EASTWARD WILL CHANGE THE PANHANDLE FROM
A CLOUDY WITH LOW QPF OR CHC POPS TO PRECIP LIKELY WITH RAIN
AT LEAST INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THE POLAR FRONT ZONE IS MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF THRU AT LEAST THU, WITH THE WAVES ON THIS
FRONTAL ZONE GENERALLY TRACKING NNW.  BY 00Z SAT THE WAVES
ON THE POLAR FRONT WILL BE TRACKING N TO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.

MODELS: FRONTAL WAVE TIMING SOLUTIONS FALL OUT OF SYNC AFTER
WED NIGHT, BUT ON THE LARGER SCALE THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
HAVE A GOOD CONSENSUS FOR SATURDAY ONWARD AS PER THE HPC
DISCUSSION FOR AK.  THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE
IS GOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 12 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ017-022.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-041-042.

$$

JCC/JBT

000
FXAK67 PAJK 131504
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE GULF
ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE ATTM AND THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH TODAY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF NOAM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PUMP UP WARM MOIST
AIR OVER THE AREA WITH RAIN AMOUNTS RANGING FROM .50 TO 1 INCH
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WARM AIR WILL ALSO RISE FREEZING LEVELS TO
BE ABOVE 3000 FT OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS...5000 FT OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND 1400FT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MELT SNOW AND MAY CAUSE MINOR DRAINAGE AND
FLOODING ISSUES. HAVE CANCELED THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ZONE
27/28 AS RAIN RATES HAVE DECREASED ALONG WITH FALLING SMALL
STREAM LEVELS...BUT WITH THE MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING SOME
MINOR HYDRO ISSUES MAY PERSIST.

 AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THE MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
FALLOW AND THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA. AS THE
RAIN DIMINISHES AREAS OF FOG WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE INNER CHANNELS. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
IS NOT MOVING THAT FAST. RAIN WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES NEAR PAYA
AS THERE WILL STRONG SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW.

 WIND WISE...AS THE SURFACE TROF LIFTS OVER THE GULF IT WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT WITH AN AREA OF GALES
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. THE COASTAL AREAS
WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE INNER CHANNELS WILL BE 15 TO 25 KT FROM
THE SOUTHER FROM CAPE SPENCER TO JUNEAU SOUTH BUT AS THE TROF
APPROACHES THE WINDS NORTH OF THAT LINE WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROF LIFTS OVER THE SE AK A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THIS WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS TO SMALL CRAFT FROM THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR PAGY AND PAHN.


.LONGTERM...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS THROUGH
DAY 6 WITH LATEST ECMWF. THE SE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE MOIST SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN ON
THURSDAY AS A TROF ROTATES INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH DAY 6
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AFTER DAY 6. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH DAY 6 AND LOWER IN LATER PERIODS.

ECMWF TAKES A 981MB LOW THROUGH THE ALASKAN INTERIOR OVER THE TOP
OF THE NORTH AMERICA BLOCKING RIDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY STARTS
BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND INDICATES A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE OMEGA BLOCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THE CPC 500 HPA BLOCKING INDEX AND 7 TO 10 DAY
PERSISTENCE OF SIMILAR BLOCKS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
I LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR DAY 6 THROUGH DAY 8. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A MUCH A 959MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AND HAS
A STRONGER RIDGE AXIS ON DAY 6 THAN DOES THE ECMWF AND HPC MODELS.
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AND STRONG BAROCLINICITY THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR A STRONG LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-033-034-036-041>043-051.

&&

$$

ABJ/CCC

000
FXAK69 PAFG 131440
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
540 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY FAST AND HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE A MESSY
FORECAST SITUATION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING MASSIVE...MID-SUMMER LIKE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH CONSENSUS ON NEAR 590 DM 500 MB HIGH
OVER THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST SAT AFTERNOON...WITH LONG WAVE
TROF ALONG ABOUT THE DATELINE. IN BETWEEN...ROARING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ORIGINATING SOUTH OF 40N. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW
WILL PRODUCE A SERIES OF FAST MOVING STORMS FOR THE WEST
COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE MAJOR CHINOOK...WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS WED THRU FRI.

966 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF AKTA MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT FROM BRISTOL BAY NEWD INTO THE INTERIOR. LOW DEVELOPING
ON THE FRONT WILL BE 978 CENTER OVER NORTON SOUND BY 12Z THU.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY THU AFTERNOON.

HAVE CONTINUED THE WW WATCHES FOR ZONES 212-216. WITH MODELS
TRACKING SFC LOW TOWARD NORTON SOUND...ZONES TO THE WEST MAY REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS WED/WED NIGHT...AND ZONE 213 LIKELY NOT WARMING UP
MUCH AT ALL.

WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALASKA RANGE ZONES. STRONG FLOW ALOFT
MAY SUPPORT HIGH WIND WARNING BY WED NIGHT OR THU. ARCTIC AIRMASS
TO BE RAPIDLY ERODED...THO SOME POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM. EASTERN ZONES...AT
LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS...VERY MILD WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS
LIKELY BY THU.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RT JAN 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 131343 AAA
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009


.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
BROAD PATTERN. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NEXT TWO FRONTS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
TODAY ARE AMOUNTS OF SNOW..TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO RAIN..AND THE MIX
OF PRECIP IN BETWEEN.


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A 960S LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS HAS AN EXTENDED..RAGGEDY FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AK
PENN AND THE SW GULF. ITS ASSOCIATED SNOW IS IMPACTING EVERYWHERE
FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
PWS. THE MOST INTENSE SWATH OF PRECIP IS IN LINE WITH A FEW 500 MB
VORT MAXES IN BRISTOL BAY..AND THE CENTRAL GULF.

BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SW AK TODAY AND TONIGHT IS A LOT OF WAA AT 850 MB. THE WARMING AND
THE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE RIDGING OVER SE AK AND THE WESTERN
US THROUGH WED. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON WED AS A
BROAD TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND STRETCHES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
COLDER AIR LOCKED INTO THE NW MAINLAND DOWN THE COAST TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND ANYWHERE WEST OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA.


.SHORT TERM FORECAST...


FOR SW AK AND THE ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND WED WITH MORE WIND AND PRECIP AS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX DEVELOPS FROM NW AK TO THE AK PENN AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRIBILOFS LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS STAY DOWN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FLOW OFF THE ICE EDGE WHILE MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

ACROSS THE MAINLAND WEST THERE IS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN AT 850 MB.
KING SALMON SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY SEE RAIN AND
SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER UNDER NORTH SURFACE
WINDS DILLINGHAM MAY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF FZRA THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF FZRA ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WED. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ISOLATED AREAS AND STAY AWAY FROM
THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO. ACROSS 155 LOOKS LIKE
MOSTLY SNOW WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER, WINDIER
AREAS FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND NORTH ALONG THE COAST.



SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH AND ALASKA RANGE. DO
NOT EXPECT HIGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW EXCEPT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA AND NORTH OF GLENNALLEN. WILL NEED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 141 AND 145. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND WED FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA ALL THE WAY UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY
IN COLD POCKETS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE SOLDOTNA. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
BY WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COOLER..MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE WET AND WINDY.



.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155 195
MARINE...STORMS 120
         GALES 125 130 132 138 140 150 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JAN 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 131316
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2009


.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
BROAD PATTERN. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NEXT TWO FRONTS. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
TODAY ARE AMOUNTS OF SNOW..TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO RAIN..AND THE MIX
OF PRECIP IN BETWEEN.


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A 960S LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS HAS AN EXTENDED..RAGGEDY FRONTAL BAND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE AK
PENN AND THE SW GULF. ITS ASSOCIATED SNOW IS IMPACTING EVERYWHERE
FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
PWS. THE MOST INTENSE SWATH OF PRECIP IS IN LINE WITH A FEW 500 MB
VORT MAXES IN BRISTOL BAY..AND THE CENTRAL GULF.

BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SW AK TODAY AND TONIGHT IS A LOT OF WAA AT 850 MB. THE WARMING AND
THE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE RIDGING OVER SE AK AND THE WESTERN
US THROUGH WED. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON WED AS A
BROAD TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND STRETCHES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
COLDER AIR LOCKED INTO THE NW MAINLAND DOWN THE COAST TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND ANYWHERE WEST OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA.


.SHORT TERM FORECAST...


FOR SW AK AND THE ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA TODAY AND WED WITH MORE WIND AND PRECIP AS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX DEVELOPS FROM NW AK TO THE AK PENN AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
PRIBILOFS LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPS STAY DOWN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FLOW OFF THE ICE EDGE WHILE MOISTURE
ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

ACROSS THE MAINLAND WEST THERE IS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN AT 850 MB.
KING SALMON SOUTH SHOULD WARM UP QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY SEE RAIN AND
SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER UNDER NORTH SURFACE
WINDS DILLINGHAM MAY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF FZRA THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE INDICATING ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF FZRA ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WED. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ISOLATED AREAS AND STAY AWAY FROM
THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO. ACROSS 155 LOOKS LIKE
MOSTLY SNOW WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER, WINDIER
AREAS FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND NORTH ALONG THE COAST.



SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHUGACH AND ALASKA RANGE. DO
NOT EXPECT HIGH AMOUNTS OF SNOW EXCEPT IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA AND NORTH OF GLENNALLEN. WILL NEED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 141 AND 145. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND WED FROM
THE KENAI PENINSULA ALL THE WAY UP TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY
IN COLD POCKETS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE SOLDOTNA. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
BY WED. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED IN TURNAGAIN ARM..BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE TO
MIXED PRECIP AND EVENTUALLY TO RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...COOLER..MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE WET AND WINDY.



.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155 195
         BLIZZARD WARNING 125
MARINE...STORMS 120
         GALES 125 130 132 138 140 150 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JAN 09