000
FXUS61 KRLX 151112
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
612 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE KICKING IN.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN.  RIGHT
NOW THOSE BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE REALLY BLOWING IT
AROUND.

THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...IMPACTING CENTRAL WV AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO.  IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE.  WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY JUST
STABILIZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.  THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR...FOR MOST AREAS
SAVE THE MOUNTAINS IN NRN WV.  WITH THE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO.  HAVE GENERALLY RUN TOWARD THE LOWEST
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DID TEMPER THE NRN MOUNTAINS A LITTLE SINCE THE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND.  BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND
HANGING AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE AREA SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
OHIO...EASTERN KY...NRN WV AND THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS START TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER SO WILL DISREGARD IT. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...SO WILL RUN TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.  HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE.  AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD.  EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO TH REGION AND THE MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND IS BEING SQUEEZED OUT BY THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z...WHEN THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE BRIEFLY TO VFR...WHILE STILL SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AROUND 16Z...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND SOME AND THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN NEWD...MOVING OUT OF NERN
KY BACK ACROSS WV.  WITH THAT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE COLD
ADVECTION STILL ON GOING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS THE MOISTURE AGAIN SHALLOWS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NERN MOUNTAINS BY 6Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME
CLEARING TO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER 06Z
AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN AND DISSIPATE.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020-028>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR KYZ101-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 151015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
515 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH ARCTIC AIR PUSHING
IN. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND YET ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED THE REGION WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW
MACHINE KICKING IN.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
BANDS OF MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE MICHIGAN.  RIGHT
NOW THOSE BANDS ARE AFFECTING THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV AND THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AS THE SNOW IS LIGHT AND THE WINDS ARE REALLY BLOWING IT
AROUND.

THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY SO EXPECT TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS TO ALSO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...IMPACTING CENTRAL WV AROUND
MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLAND SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR SO.  IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN
THE 1 TO 4 INCH RANGE.  WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING AND SOME AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON...PROBABLY JUST
STABILIZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TONIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION.  THE SKY SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR...FOR MOST AREAS
SAVE THE MOUNTAINS IN NRN WV.  WITH THE CLEARING CONDITIONS AND THE
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DOWN TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO.  HAVE GENERALLY RUN TOWARD THE LOWEST
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DID TEMPER THE NRN MOUNTAINS A LITTLE SINCE THE
CLOUDS ARE HANGING AROUND.  BUT WITH THOSE TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND
HANGING AROUND 10 MPH...SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE AREA SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
OHIO...EASTERN KY...NRN WV AND THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH NOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOW ARCTIC AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SOME SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS START TO DEVELOP
WITH SOME PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. NAM IS THE
OUTLIER SO WILL DISREGARD IT. CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP FAIRLY
WELL WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...SO WILL RUN TOWARD THAT
SOLUTION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.  HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE.  AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD.  EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA NOW...HAVING MOVE PASSED CRW
IN THE LAST HOUR AND SHOULD CROSS CKB BY 630Z AND BKW AND EKN
BETWEEN 730Z AND 8Z.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A GOOD BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS.  IT APPEARS LOOKING AT RADAR THAT THERE
WILL BE A SHORT BREAK BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN SO TRIED TO SHOW A BRIEF BREAK WITH VFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS.  THEN SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...WHEN THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE BRIEFLY TO VFR...WHILE STILL SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AROUND 16Z...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND SOME AND THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN NEWD...MOVING OUT OF NERN
KY BACK ACROSS WV.  WITH THAT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE COLD
ADVECTION STILL ON GOING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS THE MOISTURE AGAIN SHALLOWS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NERN MOUNTAINS BY 6Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-020-028>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR KYZ101-102.
VA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KILN 150844
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN TODAY AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SATURDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL DEVELOP/LINGER
TODAY...MAINLY IN NORTHERN/NE OHIO WITH A TRAILING UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND LE.  WIND CHILLS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SUBZERO...IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS IN NW OHIO...WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE MIGHTILY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS...WITH
TEENS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS AGAIN TONIGHT AS LOWS PLUNGE BELOW ZERO FOR ALL OR NEARLY
ALL OF THE FCST AREA...NEAR -10 IN NORTHWEST OHIO. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE -25 F OR LOWER IN THE NORTH/NW FCST AREA. THEREFORE...
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR MOST OF THE NW THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA 1 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TODAY. ANOTHER WIND CHILL PRODUCT MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE WINDS PICK UP LATE IN ADVANCE OF
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SE.

SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AGAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 20S WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH
ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OH
I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE
PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY.  A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER HIGH-RATIO SNOW PRODUCER...WITH A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS USUAL...EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ASSTD WITH THE CLIPPER WILL
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHERE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS.  AT THIS
TIME...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SOLN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
TAKES THE LOW ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...BRINGING MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHERN OHIO.

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES
THROUGH.  THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE GIVING THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK THIS
WEEK...THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WILL ACTUALLY BE
`TAPPED OUT` BY THIS TIME...SO THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT HAVE
NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIRMASS TO BRING IN HERE.  WEAK WAVES IN THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
TERMINALS MAY GO SCATTERED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. BUT STILL THINK
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. THEY SHOULD SCATTERED OUT FOR GOOD
DURING THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLUMBUS AREA WHICH MAY
NOT DO SO UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>053-060-061.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>053-060-061.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>053-060-061.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ054>056-
     062>065-070>074-077>080.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>097.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-
     058-059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-
     058-059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-
     080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KCLE 150839
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
339 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SERIOUSLY CONSIDERED CANCELING MUCH OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE HELD TEMPS UP MORE THAN THOUGHT AND WINDS
MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT MEETING THE MINIMUM 10 MPH REQUIREMENT.
TO AVOID CONFUSION...WILL HOWEVER LEAVE HEADLINE GO AS IS. LAKE
EFFECT WARNING WILL ALSO REMAIN UNCHANGED. ABOUT THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA HAS CLEARED OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE NEW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE HURON AND EXPECT THE CLEAR AREAS TO FILL
IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. APPEARS FROM SATELLITE...THAT MUCH OF
LAKE ERIE IS NOW FROZE. SAW OPEN WATER ONLY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE LAKE FROM CLEVELAND EAST. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LAKE EFFECT TOTALS
DOWN BUT GIVEN INCREDIBLE INSTABILITY AND VERY HIGH SNOW TO QPF
RATIOS...WARNING CRITERIA SHOULD BE EASY TO MEET. DON`T THINK
THINGS WILL BE TOO BAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...BUT WATCH OUT
TONIGHT. WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS EVEN IN THE WEST TODAY AS
SOME ACTIVITY ORIGINATING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN COULD FIND IT`S WAY TO NW
OH. TEMPS TOUGH TODAY AS EASTERN SITES REMAIN WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR TONIGHT ABOUT THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE FEWEST CLOUDS AND
THUS THE COLDEST TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS TO GET TO AROUND NEG 24
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD GET LOWS DOWN TO AROUND NEG 10. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE RIGHT AROUND 10 MPH WHICH WILL GIVE SUB NEG 25 DEGREE
WIND CHILLS. IN REALITY...IF WINDS DO STAY UP AT 10 MPH...TEMPS
MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING TO NEG 10. BUT EVEN LOWS AROUND NEG
5 WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WARNING CRITERIA AND SEE NO REASON TO WAIT
GIVEN FACT NEIGHBORS TO THE WEST ALREADY HAVE WARNINGS OUT.

LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BE GOING PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO 1 AND MORE LIKELY 40 TO
1 SO IT WON`T TAKE MUCH QPF TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. MODELS
SUGGESTING RIDGING COMES IN QUICK FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL TRY TO
END LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT IN
THE WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REALLY STRUGGLE
TO GET MUCH ABOVE ZERO ON FRIDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
KMFD FAIL TO GET ABOVE ZERO TOMORROW.

HAVE RAMPED UP SNOW MENTION ON SATURDAY AS BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW SNOW MAKING IT INTO NW OH SATURDAY MORNING. LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. QPFS WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL BUT GIVEN SNOW
RATIOS AN INCH OR TWO LIKELY MOST PLACES. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT BY
LATE SUNDAY.

HAVE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH AIRMASS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONTINUED WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH OFF AN ON
LAKE EFFECT. A BRIEF BURST OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW...LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ABOUT 13C. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST PA.
ANOTHER LOW FOR TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME LAKE ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES NOT THAT COLD. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES FROM GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA SEES MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS LITTLE CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.  AS USUAL...CONDITIONS IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
FROM VFR TO IFR.  CLE SHOULD STAY ON THE EDGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY SO AT TIMES A FEW SHSN MAY OCCUR AT CLE BUT IN GENERAL THE
SHSN SHOULD BE EAST OF CLE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT INCLUDING ERI.
LIKEWISE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THE SHSN MAY PUSH DOWN TO YNG FROM
TIME TO TIME AND POSSIBLY COULD EVEN BRIEFLY OCCUR AT CAK.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WEAK
RIDGING WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI AND FRI NITE TO
BRIEFLY END THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN.  THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION.  THIS
CLIPPER WILL BE SLOWER MOVING SO LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AND THEN THE SHSN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH INCREASING TROFINESS OVER THE LAKE THE WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WE ARE DONE WITH THE NEARSHORE FOR
THE SEASON. THE ONLY WORRY IS WHETHER WE NEED A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LAKE IS BECOMING MORE ICE
COVERED BY THE MINUTE. WILL NOT ISSUE THAT HEADLINE ATTM AND HAVE
THE DAYSHIFT INVESTIGATE THE AMOUNT OF ICE ON THE LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES EAST AHEAD
OF NEXT LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
THE WINDS NOT THAT STRONG AFTER THE LOW PASSES.

FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING THE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ012>014-
     089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ012>014-022-
     023-033-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ010-011-020-
     021-031-032-038.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150816
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
316 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...LEAVING A COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED BY WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE TWO TO FIVE INCH
RANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE NORTH AND ALONG THE RIDGES...AND
HAVE ISSUED ADVISORIES FOR THESE COUNTIES. WITH WINDS A TOUCH HIGHER
IN THE RIDGES AND THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW MAY BE A BIT
OF A CONCERN AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND AS A RESULT...HAVE PUSHED BACK THE START OF THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY TO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COUNTIES IN EASTERN OHIO AND
NW PA ARE BORDERLINE FOR WIND CHILL WARNING CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO MAKE THE FINAL
CALL ON WHAT LOCATIONS MAY NEED THE WARNING. REGARDLESS OF WIND
CHILL HEADLINES...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR...WITH ALL LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON FRIDAY...WITH ALL LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH OF
I-80...BUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE HIGH SHOULD BRING WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY
MODERATE AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE LOW WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA...ALLOWING A LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT SUNDAY NIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. A
REINFORCING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND MORE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IMPROVING CIGS AND VIS FROM WEST TO EAST. BACK EDGE OF MAIN AREA OF
SNOWFALL IS MOVING OVER SE LOCATIONS. AT TERMINAL TIME...MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND VIS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. VFR IN THE WEST.
EXPECT MOST CIGS TO GO VFR BY DAWN...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS SC WILL QUICKLY FILL BACK IN DURING THE POST DAWN MORNING
HOURS. ALL AIRPORT SHOULD GO BACK TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING EARLY
AFT. MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST RISK FOR SNOWBANDS
ACROSS NORTHERN AIRPORTS. IF SNOW BAND MOVES OVER AIRPORT...DRAMATIC
REDUCTION IN VIS CAN BE EXPECTED. SFC WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 12-15KTS. HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS AIRPORTS NEAR RIDGES.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THU NIGHT AND MOST OF FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CIGS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AGAIN OF 12 TO 15 KTS. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR RIDGES.

SFC HIGH WILL KEEP AREA VFR SAT.

NEXT CLIPPER WILL LOWER CIGS AND VIS SAT NIGHT. LOWER CIGS AND VIS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ030-032.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 150634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE...HELD TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH 03Z WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.

REST SAME...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A STRONG LOW CENTER EASTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE THIS EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO EAST BAND OF
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TRACK.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE GOING ON IN THE WARM SECTOR. NICE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
OVERRUNNING BAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES
FROM SNOW BAND LIFTING UP AND AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW...HIGH END
SNOW ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST
THRU THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INITIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...OR
POSSIBLY TWO IN SOME AREAS...IN THE LOWLANDS. LATER TONIGHT..WE
BEGIN TO LOSE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SNOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE GOOD UPSLOPE KICKS IN BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

HIGH PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY BUILDS IN THURSDAY FROM THE WEST...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART WITH A TRAJECTORY STILL
SOMEWHAT OFF THE LAKES. THUS...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE LOWLANDS...CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER DECREASES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...AS SHOWN LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
ARCTIC AIR WELL. GIVEN THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MB...WILL
GO BELOW ALL THE GUIDANCE. STILL...NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORESEEN AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH EXCEPT ON RIDGETOPS FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES DO NOT MOVE MUCH AS TEMPS
ALOFT EVEN GET A BIT COLDER..WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST H850 AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.  UNUSUAL FACTOR FOR
OUR AREA...THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY COLDER THAN THE TEMPERATURES
REQUIRED FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.  THUS...ALTHOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTIFUL AT THE START...THE SNOW WILL BECOME QUITE
DRY AND FINE...RESULTING IN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS.  CANNOT RULE OUT AN
INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS DUE TO UPSLOPE...BUT EXPECT LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ELSEWHERE.  COVERAGE WILL START TO
WANE AFTER 06Z WITH PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MOS
VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD.  DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
PLUMMETING DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...AT LEAST EARLY...AND 5-10KT
WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO MINS FROM AROUND
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ON THE
RIDGES.  ALL AREAS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH A
SIZABLE AREA WITH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS.  STILL A BIT EARLY TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIRD
PERIOD...BUT CURRENT HWO HANDLES THINGS WELL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING UP AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY IN
THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS.  WITH -20C H850 TEMPS LINGERING...COLDEST
MAX T VALUES IN SEVERAL YEARS WILL BE SEEN...MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND
20 DEGREES.  LIKED THE MAV HERE...AND COULD EVEN SEE VALUES A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER.

CLEAR START FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE CONUNDRUM IS HOW QUICKLY MID/HI
CLOUDS BUILD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER...AND THE
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.  MODELS...PARTICULARLY GFS...SEEM
APPROPRIATELY QUICK ADVANCING NEXT CLIPPER LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY 00Z SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST.  EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO SPILL IN BY 06Z IN SWIFT FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME THICKER MID CLOUD
ARRIVING BY 12Z. ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...DO NOT
FORESEE A BIG OVERNIGHT PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES.  PROTECTED VALLEYS
LIKE EKN SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN...AND A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.  TO THE
WEST...VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER.

WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED CLOUD INCREASE.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO STREAK IN DURING THE DAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.  KEPT POPS LOW FOR
NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP ON THIS FRONT EDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.  HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE.  AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD.  EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA NOW...HAVING MOVE PASSED CRW
IN THE LAST HOUR AND SHOULD CROSS CKB BY 630Z AND BKW AND EKN
BETWEEN 730Z AND 8Z.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A GOOD BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS.  IT APPEARS LOOKING AT RADAR THAT THERE
WILL BE A SHORT BREAK BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS BEGIN SO TRIED TO SHOW A BRIEF BREAK WITH VFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS.  THEN SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE THROUGH ABOUT
15Z...WHEN THE MOISTURE DEPTH BECOME SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAISE BRIEFLY TO VFR...WHILE STILL SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AROUND 16Z...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK AROUND SOME AND THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN NEWD...MOVING OUT OF NERN
KY BACK ACROSS WV.  WITH THAT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE COLD
ADVECTION STILL ON GOING...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.  THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER
00Z AS THE MOISTURE AGAIN SHALLOWS...LEAVING ONLY A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NERN MOUNTAINS BY 6Z FRIDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KILN 150544
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1244 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION. A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE ALL THAT REMAIN OF THE PRECIPITATION. THERE
ARE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
NORTHWEST ZONES AND EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BRING SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

WINTER STORM WARNING/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. BUT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY...FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MAY GET
INTO A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES GETTING SQUEEZED OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO POSSIBLY LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH FRESH
SNOW COVER AND DECREASING WINDS...EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE ONE
CAVEAT WILL BE HOW FAST THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECREASE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE BETTER GRADIENT EXISTS THE LONGEST.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WINDS DROP OFF...WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO ABOUT 30
BELOW.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED VERY COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWEST
LATE.

FOR SIMPLICITY REASONS...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE
PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY.  A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER HIGH-RATIO SNOW PRODUCER...WITH A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS USUAL...EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ASSTD WITH THE CLIPPER WILL
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHERE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS.  AT THIS
TIME...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SOLN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
TAKES THE LOW ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...BRINGING MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHERN OHIO.

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES
THROUGH.  THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE GIVING THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK THIS
WEEK...THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WILL ACTUALLY BE
`TAPPED OUT` BY THIS TIME...SO THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT HAVE
NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIRMASS TO BRING IN HERE.  WEAK WAVES IN THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS AND
TERMINALS MAY GO SCATTERED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. BUT STILL THINK
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL. THEY SHOULD SCATTERED OUT FOR GOOD
DURING THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLUMBUS AREA WHICH MAY
NOT DO SO UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>097.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KCLE 150448
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1150 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE. FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS BECOMING LIGHT SO REMOVED
THE LAST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. KEPT ALL OTHER
HEADLINES AS THEY WERE.  ALSO DROPPED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS...STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT
WITH A SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF A FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO
CANTON LINE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -10 FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A CLEVELAND TO CANTON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN OVER A DECADE SLIDE INTO OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS SO THAT WIND CHILLS DIP
TO NEAR WIND CHILL WARNING VALUES (-25).

WESTERLY WINDS FLOWING OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. STILL SOME ISSUE ON AMOUNTS WITH UNCERTAINTY TO IF THE
LAKE WILL ICE OVER ENOUGH TO DECREASE AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION
AT LEAST A FOOT FOR THE SNOW BELTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL TRACKS VARY SOME BOTH ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF DROP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
ACROSS LAKE ERIE/NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY.  IF LOW DOES INDEED TRACK
ACROSS LAKE ERIE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.  WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY MORNING BUT TREND IS FOR LOW TO
MOVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC...WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKES.  HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NUDGES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA SEES MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS LITTLE CHANGES
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.  AS USUAL...CONDITIONS IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
FROM VFR TO IFR.  CLE SHOULD STAY ON THE EDGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY SO AT TIMES A FEW SHSN MAY OCCUR AT CLE BUT IN GENERAL THE
SHSN SHOULD BE EAST OF CLE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT INCLUDING ERI.
LIKEWISE SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THE SHSN MAY PUSH DOWN TO YNG FROM
TIME TO TIME AND POSSIBLY COULD EVEN BRIEFLY OCCUR AT CAK.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THEN WEAK
RIDGING WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI AND FRI NITE TO
BRIEFLY END THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN.  THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION.  THIS
CLIPPER WILL BE SLOWER MOVING SO LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AND THEN THE SHSN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
INTO MAINLY THE SNOWBELT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP SOME
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE.  NEARSHORE FORECAST
WILL END FOR THE SEASON AFTER THE 10 PM ISSUANCE TONIGHT.  THEREFORE
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.  WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE STRONGER SIDE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND A TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE NEXT LOW TO
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES TO ERIE BY SUNDAY.  THEREFORE WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH.  FAVORED ECMWF HAS TRACK OF
LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.  HAVE FORECAST
BELOW GALES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH HAVE UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS.  LAKE ICE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE LAKE DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006>011-
     017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN

000
FXUS61 KILN 150353
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1053 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL OHIO
THIS EVENING AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES IN THIS EVENING AND SNOW TAPERS OFF TO A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. STRONG CAA WILL ALSO
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
WITH AROUND ZERO POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE AND HAVE
EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.

UPDATED ZONES TO CLEAN UP WORDING AND WIND DOWN SNOW EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY...FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MAY GET
INTO A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES GETTING SQUEEZED OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO POSSIBLY LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH FRESH
SNOW COVER AND DECREASING WINDS...EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE ONE
CAVEAT WILL BE HOW FAST THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECREASE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE BETTER GRADIENT EXISTS THE LONGEST.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WINDS DROP OFF...WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO ABOUT 30
BELOW.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED VERY COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWEST
LATE.

FOR SIMPLICITY REASONS...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE
PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY.  A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER HIGH-RATIO SNOW PRODUCER...WITH A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS USUAL...EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ASSTD WITH THE CLIPPER WILL
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHERE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS.  AT THIS
TIME...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SOLN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
TAKES THE LOW ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...BRINGING MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHERN OHIO.

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES
THROUGH.  THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE GIVING THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK THIS
WEEK...THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WILL ACTUALLY BE
`TAPPED OUT` BY THIS TIME...SO THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT HAVE
NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIRMASS TO BRING IN HERE.  WEAK WAVES IN THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING BUT LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST AT CMH
AND LCK UNTIL BAND OF MODERATE SNOW MOVES EAST BY 03Z.
VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE TO VFR AFTER 07Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT LUK DAY ILN CMH AND LCK FROM 03Z THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. CVG WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES BY 03Z...WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH 07Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>097.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     KYZ091>093.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ066-
     073>075.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KCLE 150324 AAA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1024 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE. FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS BECOMING LIGHT SO REMOVED
THE LAST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. KEPT ALL OTHER
HEADLINES AS THEY WERE.  ALSO DROPPED LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES.

PREVIOUS...STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT
WITH A SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF A FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO
CANTON LINE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -10 FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A CLEVELAND TO CANTON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN OVER A DECADE SLIDE INTO OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS SO THAT WIND CHILLS DIP
TO NEAR WIND CHILL WARNING VALUES (-25).

WESTERLY WINDS FLOWING OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. STILL SOME ISSUE ON AMOUNTS WITH UNCERTAINTY TO IF THE
LAKE WILL ICE OVER ENOUGH TO DECREASE AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION
AT LEAST A FOOT FOR THE SNOW BELTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL TRACKS VARY SOME BOTH ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF DROP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
ACROSS LAKE ERIE/NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY.  IF LOW DOES INDEED TRACK
ACROSS LAKE ERIE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.  WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY MORNING BUT TREND IS FOR LOW TO
MOVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC...WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKES.  HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NUDGES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
HOWEVER...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE TYPICAL HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...THE SHSN SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS OHIO INTO
WESTERN PA.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY SAT THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE
LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AT ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION.  THIS CLIPPER WILL
BE SLOWER MOVING SO LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY AND THEN THE SHSN WILL AGAIN SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE
SNOWBELT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP SOME
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE.  NEARSHORE FORECAST
WILL END FOR THE SEASON AFTER THE 10 PM ISSUANCE TONIGHT.  THEREFORE
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.  WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE STRONGER SIDE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND A TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE NEXT LOW TO
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES TO ERIE BY SUNDAY.  THEREFORE WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH.  FAVORED ECMWF HAS TRACK OF
LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.  HAVE FORECAST
BELOW GALES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH HAVE UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS.  LAKE ICE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE LAKE DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006>011-
     017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150245
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE COMPLETED TO REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS AND DROP THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED OVER MOST ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE AS BANDS OF SNOW WRAP AROUND THE EXITING
LOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUAD OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS...WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
DEEPENS. A COUPLE MORE INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY OVER
THE LAKE EFFECT AND RIDGE ZONES. FURTHER EVALUATION FOR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...I.E. THREE UP TO SIX INCHES WILL CONTINUE...WITH
CURRENT LIMITATIONS BEING A PROGGED BACKING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
MORE THE WEST IN LEE OF THE LAKES AND A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
INVERSION OVER THE RIDGES.

INCOMING ARCTIC AIR WILL COMBINE WITH WIND SPEED TO CREATE WIND
CHILL INDICES NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY...WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CONTINUED. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT AND HOLD STEADY OR FALL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BITTER COLD REMAINS WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS AND ENOUGH WIND FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT SOME POINT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO -25 DEGREES
WITH BEST CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW ADVISORY LOOKS BEST
WAY TO GO. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACK OFF ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO BEGIN TO RISE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO TURN FLOW WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SKIES WILL BREAK OUT FRIDAY AS FLOW GOES WESTERLY. NEXT CLIPPER
THEN BRINGS SNOW CHANCE BACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MODERATING BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP ALONG WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/ISOLD IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IN OPERATION WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS. GENERAL MVFR CEILING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU. VSBY WILL VARY FROM UNRESTRICTED
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY WILL BRING GENERAL VFR FLYING
WEATHER WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE.

ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ049-050-
     058-059-068-069.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ021-
     029>032.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150018
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EVENING UPDATE COMPLETED TO REDUCE SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXCHANGE
WEATHER FOR LIGHT SNOW. UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER MOST ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LATROBE TO ZANESVILLE...BASED ON TRACK OF LOW AND RADAR
TRENDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE TIME-
BEING AS ROAD CLEARANCE WILL BE HAMPERED BY CONTINUING LIGHT SNOW
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AS THE LOW EXITS...WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
DEEPENS. A COUPLE MORE INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY OVER
THE LAKE EFFECT AND RIDGE ZONES. FURTHER EVALUATION FOR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...I.E. THREE UP TO SIX INCHES WILL CONTINUE...WITH
CURRENT LIMITATIONS BEING A PROGGED BACKING OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
MORE THE WEST IN LEE OF THE LAKES AND A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
INVERSION OVER THE RIDGES.

INCOMING ARCTIC AIR WILL COMBINE WITH WIND SPEED TO CREATE WIND
CHILL INDICES NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY...WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CONTINUED. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT AND HOLD STEADY OR FALL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BITTER COLD REMAINS WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS AND ENOUGH WIND FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT SOME POINT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO -25 DEGREES
WITH BEST CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW ADVISORY LOOKS BEST
WAY TO GO. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACK OFF ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO BEGIN TO RISE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO TURN FLOW WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SKIES WILL BREAK OUT FRIDAY AS FLOW GOES WESTERLY. NEXT CLIPPER
THEN BRINGS SNOW CHANCE BACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MODERATING BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP ALONG WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH GENERAL MVFR/ISOLD IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MACHINE IN OPERATION WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS. GENERAL MVFR CEILING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU. VSBY WILL VARY FROM UNRESTRICTED
OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY WILL BRING GENERAL VFR FLYING
WEATHER WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE.

ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029>032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS61 KRLX 150003
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
704 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE...HELD TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH 03Z WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER.

REST SAME...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A STRONG LOW CENTER EASTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE THIS EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO EAST BAND OF
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TRACK.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE GOING ON IN THE WARM SECTOR. NICE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
OVERRUNNING BAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES
FROM SNOW BAND LIFTING UP AND AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW...HIGH END
SNOW ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST
THRU THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INITIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...OR
POSSIBLY TWO IN SOME AREAS...IN THE LOWLANDS. LATER TONIGHT..WE
BEGIN TO LOSE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SNOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE GOOD UPSLOPE KICKS IN BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

HIGH PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY BUILDS IN THURSDAY FROM THE WEST...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART WITH A TRAJECTORY STILL
SOMEWHAT OFF THE LAKES. THUS...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE LOWLANDS...CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER DECREASES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...AS SHOWN LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
ARCTIC AIR WELL. GIVEN THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MB...WILL
GO BELOW ALL THE GUIDANCE. STILL...NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORESEEN AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH EXCEPT ON RIDGETOPS FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES DO NOT MOVE MUCH AS TEMPS
ALOFT EVEN GET A BIT COLDER..WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST H850 AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.  UNUSUAL FACTOR FOR
OUR AREA...THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY COLDER THAN THE TEMPERATURES
REQUIRED FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.  THUS...ALTHOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTIFUL AT THE START...THE SNOW WILL BECOME QUITE
DRY AND FINE...RESULTING IN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS.  CANNOT RULE OUT AN
INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS DUE TO UPSLOPE...BUT EXPECT LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ELSEWHERE.  COVERAGE WILL START TO
WANE AFTER 06Z WITH PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MOS
VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD.  DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
PLUMMETING DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...AT LEAST EARLY...AND 5-10KT
WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO MINS FROM AROUND
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ON THE
RIDGES.  ALL AREAS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH A
SIZABLE AREA WITH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS.  STILL A BIT EARLY TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIRD
PERIOD...BUT CURRENT HWO HANDLES THINGS WELL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING UP AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY IN
THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS.  WITH -20C H850 TEMPS LINGERING...COLDEST
MAX T VALUES IN SEVERAL YEARS WILL BE SEEN...MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND
20 DEGREES.  LIKED THE MAV HERE...AND COULD EVEN SEE VALUES A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER.

CLEAR START FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE CONUNDRUM IS HOW QUICKLY MID/HI
CLOUDS BUILD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER...AND THE
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.  MODELS...PARTICULARLY GFS...SEEM
APPROPRIATELY QUICK ADVANCING NEXT CLIPPER LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY 00Z SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST.  EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO SPILL IN BY 06Z IN SWIFT FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME THICKER MID CLOUD
ARRIVING BY 12Z. ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...DO NOT
FORESEE A BIG OVERNIGHT PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES.  PROTECTED VALLEYS
LIKE EKN SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN...AND A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.  TO THE
WEST...VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER.

WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED CLOUD INCREASE.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO STREAK IN DURING THE DAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.  KEPT POPS LOW FOR
NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP ON THIS FRONT EDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.  HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE.  AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD.  EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING FROM NORTHERN OHIO MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND THEN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL BRING VFR WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS DOWN TOMVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES.  SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND BECOME GUSTY WHERE
THEY ARE NOT ALREADY GUSTY.

THE FRONT IS TIMED TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER AND PKB AND HTS AT
02Z...CRW AND CKB NEAR 03Z AND THEN FINALLY EKN AND BKW AROUND 05Z
TONIGHT.  THE SNOW SHOWERS CAN BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THU...WITH MVFR VSBY IN SNOW
SHOWERS ENDING AROUND DAYBREAK THU ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND BY
AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAIN SITES ALTHOUGH LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE STRATOCU DECK WILL LIFT ABOVE MVFR AROUND NOON
LOWLANDS AND NOT UNTIL VERY LATE THU OR THU NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THU...PERHAPS SLACKING OFF
JUST A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-
     046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KILN 142342
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
642 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL OHIO
THIS EVENING AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW CENTERED NEAR KIND WITH ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN INDIANA. AHEAD OF LOW...WIDESPREAD SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SINCE MID
MORNING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE SO FAR. MEANWHILE...SNOW HAS ALSO FILLED
IN FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 925-850 MB CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF OUR AREA UNTIL THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST LATER THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD BRING
SNOW TOTALS TO AROUND 4-6 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...DROPPING
DOWN TO 1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RIVER...WILL GENERALLY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS AT AN INCH OR LESS. DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

AS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SNOW TAPERS OFF
TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. STRONG CAA WILL
ALSO LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT WITH AROUND ZERO POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE
AND HAVE EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY...FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MAY GET
INTO A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES GETTING SQUEEZED OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO POSSIBLY LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH FRESH
SNOW COVER AND DECREASING WINDS...EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE ONE
CAVEAT WILL BE HOW FAST THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECREASE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE BETTER GRADIENT EXISTS THE LONGEST.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WINDS DROP OFF...WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO ABOUT 30
BELOW.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED VERY COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWEST
LATE.

FOR SIMPLICITY REASONS...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE
PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY.  A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER HIGH-RATIO SNOW PRODUCER...WITH A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS USUAL...EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ASSTD WITH THE CLIPPER WILL
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHERE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS.  AT THIS
TIME...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SOLN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
TAKES THE LOW ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...BRINGING MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHERN OHIO.

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES
THROUGH.  THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE GIVING THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK THIS
WEEK...THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WILL ACTUALLY BE
`TAPPED OUT` BY THIS TIME...SO THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT HAVE
NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIRMASS TO BRING IN HERE.  WEAK WAVES IN THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING BUT LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST AT CMH
AND LCK UNTIL BAND OF MODERATE SNOW MOVES EAST BY 03Z.
VISIBILITIES WILL INCREASE TO VFR AFTER 07Z...BUT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT LUK DAY ILN CMH AND LCK FROM 03Z THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. CVG WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT ALL SITES BY 03Z...WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH 07Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR KYZ089>097.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     KYZ091>093.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ066-
     073>075.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KCLE 142303
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
603 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE. FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT WITH A SWATH
OF HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF A FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO CANTON LINE. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10 FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF A CLEVELAND TO CANTON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN OVER A DECADE SLIDE INTO OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS SO THAT WIND CHILLS DIP
TO NEAR WIND CHILL WARNING VALUES (-25).

WESTERLY WINDS FLOWING OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. STILL SOME ISSUE ON AMOUNTS WITH UNCERTAINTY TO IF THE
LAKE WILL ICE OVER ENOUGH TO DECREASE AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION
AT LEAST A FOOT FOR THE SNOW BELTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL TRACKS VARY SOME BOTH ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF DROP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
ACROSS LAKE ERIE/NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY.  IF LOW DOES INDEED TRACK
ACROSS LAKE ERIE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.  WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY MORNING BUT TREND IS FOR LOW TO
MOVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC...WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKES.  HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NUDGES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
HOWEVER...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE TYPICAL HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AROUND THE SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...THE SHSN SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS OHIO INTO
WESTERN PA.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AND DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY SAT THEN CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE
LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AT ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION.  THIS CLIPPER WILL
BE SLOWER MOVING SO LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY AND THEN THE SHSN WILL AGAIN SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE
SNOWBELT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP SOME
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE.  NEARSHORE FORECAST
WILL END FOR THE SEASON AFTER THE 10 PM ISSUANCE TONIGHT.  THEREFORE
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.  WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE STRONGER SIDE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND A TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE NEXT LOW TO
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES TO ERIE BY SUNDAY.  THEREFORE WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH.  FAVORED ECMWF HAS TRACK OF
LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.  HAVE FORECAST
BELOW GALES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH HAVE UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS.  LAKE ICE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE LAKE DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ031-032-
     038.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...OUDEMAN

000
FXUS61 KILN 142129
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL OHIO
THIS EVENING AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS WILL THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW CENTERED NEAR KIND WITH ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN INDIANA. AHEAD OF LOW...WIDESPREAD SNOW
HAS BEEN FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SINCE MID
MORNING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE SO FAR. MEANWHILE...SNOW HAS ALSO FILLED
IN FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 925-850 MB CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF OUR AREA UNTIL THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST LATER THIS
EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD BRING
SNOW TOTALS TO AROUND 4-6 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70...DROPPING
DOWN TO 1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RIVER...WILL GENERALLY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS AT AN INCH OR LESS. DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

AS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SNOW TAPERS OFF
TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. STRONG CAA WILL
ALSO LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OVERNIGHT WITH AROUND ZERO POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN INTO THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE
AND HAVE EXTENDED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY...FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MAY GET
INTO A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL JUST ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES GETTING SQUEEZED OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO POSSIBLY LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH FRESH
SNOW COVER AND DECREASING WINDS...EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPS DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE ONE
CAVEAT WILL BE HOW FAST THE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECREASE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE BETTER GRADIENT EXISTS THE LONGEST.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WINDS DROP OFF...WE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WIND CHILL WARNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO ABOUT 30
BELOW.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED VERY COLD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWEST
LATE.

FOR SIMPLICITY REASONS...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE
PERIOD STARTING OFF WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY.  A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH
WILL BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER HIGH-RATIO SNOW PRODUCER...WITH A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS USUAL...EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW ASSTD WITH THE CLIPPER WILL
HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON WHERE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS.  AT THIS
TIME...DECIDED TO GO WITH A SOLN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
TAKES THE LOW ACROSS OUR NRN CWA...BRINGING MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHERN OHIO.

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES
THROUGH.  THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE GIVING THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK THIS
WEEK...THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WILL ACTUALLY BE
`TAPPED OUT` BY THIS TIME...SO THAT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT HAVE
NEARLY AS COLD OF AN AIRMASS TO BRING IN HERE.  WEAK WAVES IN THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER E CNTRL INDIANA TO TRACK ESE THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WL
BE FROM KDAY TO KCMH WHERE SNOW WILL CONT WITH VSBYS AND CIGS
IN IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. TO THE SOUTH KILN/KCVG EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. EXPECT A GOOD SNOW BURST AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER EXPECT PRIMARILY FLURRIES
WITH MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
     077>080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR KYZ089>097.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     KYZ091>093.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ066-
     073>075.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS61 KCLE 142118
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
418 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES
IN ITS WAKE. FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT WITH A SWATH
OF HEAVIER SNOW SOUTH OF A FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO CANTON LINE. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION
AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10 FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF A CLEVELAND TO CANTON LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN OVER A DECADE SLIDE INTO OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS SO THAT WIND CHILLS DIP
TO NEAR WIND CHILL WARNING VALUES (-25).

WESTERLY WINDS FLOWING OVER LAKE ERIE WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY. STILL SOME ISSUE ON AMOUNTS WITH UNCERTAINTY TO IF THE
LAKE WILL ICE OVER ENOUGH TO DECREASE AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION
AT LEAST A FOOT FOR THE SNOW BELTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MODEL TRACKS VARY SOME BOTH ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF DROP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO SRN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN
ACROSS LAKE ERIE/NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY.  IF LOW DOES INDEED TRACK
ACROSS LAKE ERIE HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.  WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY MORNING BUT TREND IS FOR LOW TO
MOVE OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE NE INTO QUEBEC...WITH LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKES.  HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
NUDGES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT IFR SOME LIFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE NOW ON THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING AND REACH SW PA AROUND BETWEEN 8
PM AND 10 PM LOCAL. CURRENTLY BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS WEST OF CHI. AT
CLE EXPECT 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD 8 PM
LOCAL.  THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.

THINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DO HOWEVER...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST
OF CLEVELAND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BE THIS WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP SOME
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE.  NEARSHORE FORECAST
WILL END FOR THE SEASON AFTER THE 10 PM ISSUANCE TONIGHT.  THEREFORE
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.  WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE STRONGER SIDE
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND A TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE NEXT LOW TO
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES TO ERIE BY SUNDAY.  THEREFORE WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH.  FAVORED ECMWF HAS TRACK OF
LOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.  HAVE FORECAST
BELOW GALES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH HAVE UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS.  LAKE ICE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE LAKE DURING THE
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ031-032-
     038.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN

000
FXUS61 KRLX 142033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING A STRONG LOW CENTER EASTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE THIS EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO EAST BAND OF
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TRACK.
ELSEWHERE...LITTLE GOING ON IN THE WARM SECTOR. NICE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE
OVERRUNNING BAND. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW IN PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES
FROM SNOW BAND LIFTING UP AND AROUND THE APPROACHING LOW...HIGH END
SNOW ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS IS.

AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST
THRU THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INITIALLY DEEPER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...OR
POSSIBLY TWO IN SOME AREAS...IN THE LOWLANDS. LATER TONIGHT..WE
BEGIN TO LOSE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SNOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WHEN THE GOOD UPSLOPE KICKS IN BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT...BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO.

HIGH PRESSURE ONLY SLOWLY BUILDS IN THURSDAY FROM THE WEST...BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART WITH A TRAJECTORY STILL
SOMEWHAT OFF THE LAKES. THUS...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE LOWLANDS...CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE DEPTH FURTHER DECREASES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...AS SHOWN LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
ARCTIC AIR WELL. GIVEN THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AT 925/850 MB...WILL
GO BELOW ALL THE GUIDANCE. STILL...NO RECORD LOWS ARE FORESEEN AND
WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH EXCEPT ON RIDGETOPS FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES. ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES DO NOT MOVE MUCH AS TEMPS
ALOFT EVEN GET A BIT COLDER..WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLDEST H850 AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.  UNUSUAL FACTOR FOR
OUR AREA...THE AIRMASS IS GENERALLY COLDER THAN THE TEMPERATURES
REQUIRED FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.  THUS...ALTHOUGH SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE PLENTIFUL AT THE START...THE SNOW WILL BECOME QUITE
DRY AND FINE...RESULTING IN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS.  CANNOT RULE OUT AN
INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS DUE TO UPSLOPE...BUT EXPECT LESS
THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ELSEWHERE.  COVERAGE WILL START TO
WANE AFTER 06Z WITH PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH...AND CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MOS
VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD.  DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY
PLUMMETING DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS...AT LEAST EARLY...AND 5-10KT
WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED. THIS GENERALLY LEADS TO MINS FROM AROUND
ZERO TO 5 ABOVE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ON THE
RIDGES.  ALL AREAS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO...WITH A
SIZABLE AREA WITH VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS.  STILL A BIT EARLY TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIRD
PERIOD...BUT CURRENT HWO HANDLES THINGS WELL.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING UP AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY IN
THE DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS.  WITH -20C H850 TEMPS LINGERING...COLDEST
MAX T VALUES IN SEVERAL YEARS WILL BE SEEN...MOSTLY BETWEEN 10 AND
20 DEGREES.  LIKED THE MAV HERE...AND COULD EVEN SEE VALUES A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER.

CLEAR START FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE CONUNDRUM IS HOW QUICKLY MID/HI
CLOUDS BUILD OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER...AND THE
RESULTANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.  MODELS...PARTICULARLY GFS...SEEM
APPROPRIATELY QUICK ADVANCING NEXT CLIPPER LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY 00Z SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST.  EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO SPILL IN BY 06Z IN SWIFT FLOW ALOFT...WITH SOME THICKER MID CLOUD
ARRIVING BY 12Z. ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALBEIT WEAK...DO NOT
FORESEE A BIG OVERNIGHT PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES.  PROTECTED VALLEYS
LIKE EKN SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO AGAIN...AND A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS
MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.  TO THE
WEST...VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER.

WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED CLOUD INCREASE.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO STREAK IN DURING THE DAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.  KEPT POPS LOW FOR
NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP ON THIS FRONT EDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.  HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE.  AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD.  EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA. THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA EARLY
TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ALL OUR AREA BY 05Z.

NORTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ...GENERALLY
MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IFR/LIFR IN MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

AFTER 12Z...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER BY 18Z.


AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-
     046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 142032
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
332 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED TO EXPAND ADVISORY TO NORTHERN CWA AS SNOW AMOUNTS NOW
EXPECTED TO BE IN 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF REGION AND WILL SPREAD INTO NRN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE RIDGES
BEFORE SUNSET. LOW TRACK TO SOUTH OF PA AND SNOW AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK IN LINE WITH 2-4 IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN RIDGES AND 1-3
NORTH OUTSIDE OF CURRENT ADVISORY. BEHIND LOW LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND RIDGES THAT WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT HELD OFF TO LET LATER SHIFTS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON AMOUNTS. BEHIND SYSTEM ARCTIC AIR WILL COMBINE WITH
WINDS TO CREATE WIND CHILLS NEARING -15 DEGREES THURSDAY AND
ISSUED ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND HOLD STEADY OR FALL DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BITTER COLD REMAINS WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS AND ENOUGH WIND FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT SOME POINT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO -25 DEGREES
WITH BEST CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW ADVISORY LOOKS BEST
WAY TO GO. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACK OFF ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO BEGIN TO RISE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO TURN FLOW WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SKIES WILL BREAK OUT FRIDAY AS FLOW GOES WESTERLY. NEXT CLIPPER
THEN BRINGS SNOW CHANCE BACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MODERATING BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP ALONG WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE DISTRICT INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH GENERAL IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AS THE STEADY SNOW
TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MACHINE IN OPERATION WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWERS. GENERAL MVFR CEILING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT STRATO CU. VSBY WILL VARY FROM UNRESTRICTED OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY WILL BRING GENERAL VFR FLYING
WEATHER WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE.

ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029>032.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141936
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
236 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF REGION AND WILL SPREAD INTO NRN WEST
VIRGINIA AND THE RIDGES BEFORE SUNSET. LOW TRACK TO SOUTH OF PA
AND SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK IN LINE WITH 2-4 IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHERN RIDGES AND 1-3 NORTH OUTSIDE OF CURRENT ADVISORY. BEHIND
LOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
RIDGES THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY BUT HELD OFF TO LET
LATER SHIFTS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON AMOUNTS. BEHIND SYSTEM ARCTIC
AIR WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS TO CREATE WIND CHILLS NEARING -15
DEGREES THURSDAY AND ISSUED ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT AND HOLD STEADY OR
FALL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BITTER COLD REMAINS WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS AND ENOUGH WIND FOR
WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT SOME POINT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO -25 DEGREES
WITH BEST CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING BUT FOR NOW ADVISORY LOOKS BEST
WAY TO GO. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACK OFF ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR WIND CHILL VALUES TO BEGIN TO RISE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO TURN FLOW WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
SKIES WILL BREAK OUT FRIDAY AS FLOW GOES WESTERLY. NEXT CLIPPER
THEN BRINGS SNOW CHANCE BACK FOR SATURDAY WITH MODERATING BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLIPPER MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE DISTRICT
SUNDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SET UP ALONG WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING COLDER AIR AND
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE DISTRICT INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH GENERAL IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AS THE STEADY SNOW
TAPERS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBY. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT
SNOW MACHINE IN OPERATION WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC
SNOW SHOWERS. GENERAL MVFR CEILING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT STRATO CU. VSBY WILL VARY FROM UNRESTRICTED OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY WILL BRING GENERAL VFR FLYING
WEATHER WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES NEAR LAKE ERIE.

ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND
THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ039-040-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
     029-031.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ023-030-
     032.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021-022.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 141854
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
148 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...SPED UP ADVANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS. ALSO PUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN APPENDAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. KEPT ADVISORIES AS IS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS.  THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS.  BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES.  IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.  AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD.  AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY.  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC.  THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB.  BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR.  BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE.  TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST.  ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW.  BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC.  FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.

ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DECENT CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.  HAVE POPS AT 50
PERCENT MOST LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH MODELS
BEING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD PREFER TO GO HIGHER.
BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL
SNOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED...WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE.  AS A RESULT...A FEW SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF PERIOD.  EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH
TIME...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY...ENDING THE CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA. THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA EARLY
TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ALL OUR AREA BY 05Z.

NORTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ...GENERALLY
MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IFR/LIFR IN MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

AFTER 12Z...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER BY 18Z.


AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KRLX 141820
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
109 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG FRONT USHERS IN ARCTIC COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...SPED UP ADVANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS. ALSO PUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN APPENDAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. KEPT ADVISORIES AS IS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS.  THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS.  BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES.  IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.  AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD.  AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY.  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC.  THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB.  BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR.  BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE.  TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST.  ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW.  BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC.  FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.

ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA. THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA EARLY
TONIGHT...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH ALL OUR AREA BY 05Z.

NORTH OF A PKB-CKB LINE...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS.

BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING ...GENERALLY
MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...BUT IFR/LIFR IN MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.

AFTER 12Z...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE
OHIO RIVER BY 18Z.


AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KILN 141749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PORTIONS THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST. EMBEDDED S/W
TO DROP SE THRU THE OH VLY THIS EVE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESS
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS FAR SRN OHIO
THIS EVENING. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OCCUR TODAY WITH BEST
FORCING AND MSTR TO OCCUR THRU THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BASED ON
RADAR/SATL TRENDS THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. HAVE JUST
ADJUSTED NUMBERS SLIGHTLY LOWER. FURTHER SOUTH ACRS SRN OHIO AND
NRN KY...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHUD LIMIT AMOUNT OF
SNOWFALL. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF AND ONLY EXPECT AN
INCH OR TWO IN THE ADVSY AREA AND LESS SOUTH. THEREFORE...
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN ONE TO TWO INCHES.

WITH THE CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL PLUNGE WIND CHILLS INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE...LESS THAN
-10 F...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE NW/WEST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING
UPPER DISTURBANCE/LE.  WIND CHILLS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SUBZERO WITH
THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS...WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS AGAIN...PERHAPS -20 F TO -25 F OR LOWER IN THE
NORTH/NW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF
LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL SEE A FEW S/W
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT...TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST S/W HAS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING TO
THE NE AT THE SAME TIME. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. LOSES ITS
SHARP GRADIENT BUT REMAINS NEARLY AS STRONG...COVERING A WIDER AREA
OF THE GTLKS REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BROAD TROUGH MOVES S THROUGH THE ERN GTLKS ON TUES. BEHIND
THIS...THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E...LIMITING A
CONTINUED COLD SPELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

MODELLERS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING FAVOR WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SE MOVING SFC LOW WILL CROSS NRN
CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...OVERSPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AND
CUTTING THEM OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A GFS
SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STARTED/ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER/LATER. BY THE END OF THE FCST...ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE
REGION BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SWRN EDGE TO ITS ASSOC PRECIP ON
MON/TUE.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD. FEEL THAT ANY ERROR ON TEMPS
IN THE EXTENDED WOULD BE THAT THEY COULD BE TOO WARM GIVE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER E CNTRL INDIANA TO TRACK ESE THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WL
BE FROM KDAY TO KCMH WHERE SNOW WILL CONT WITH VSBYS AND CIGS
IN IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES. TO THE SOUTH KILN/KCVG EXPECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH
PERIODS OF IFR. EXPECT A GOOD SNOW BURST AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES
THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER EXPECT PRIMARILY FLURRIES
WITH MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062-
     070>072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     KYZ091>093.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ066-
     073>075.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS61 KCLE 141738
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1238 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
OHIO TODAY AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND INTO NW PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOW LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AREA LOOKING REASONABLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WAYNE HOLMES
AND STARK COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADD THIS AREA IF THE
HEAVIER SNOWS DO NOT SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CONCERNS ARE WIND
CHILL AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT AND
LET THE NEXT SHIFTS MONITOR.

WITH REGARD TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY THE WIND WILL TRY TO
BECOME MORE WNW. WITH COLD AIR LIKE THIS THE LAKE EFFECT SOMETIMES
TAKES TIME TO GET GOING. ALSO WITH ICE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
THAT COULD LOWER THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE BUT WITH SOME MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL GO WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE SNOW
BELT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER
IT SHOULD GO LONGER BUT WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SHIFT THE WINDS
MORE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL MOVE THE SNOW OFFSHORE...WHILE THE NAM IS
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THIS. NONE THE LESS ENDING THE WATCH AT 7 PM
FRIDAY WILL GET US IN THE BALL PARK.

ELSEWHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM EITHER LAKE
MICHIGAN OR ERIE.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM THE NAM MODEL AS
THEY SEEM REASONABLE. WENT A LITTLE WARMER CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWEST. THIS TRAJECTORY
WOULD CAUSE THE SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
FORCE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THIS WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE
INFLUENCE FOR SURE.

GOOD SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WE WILL LIKELY SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SLIGHT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY BUT A RETURN TO REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW ACTIVITY. YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. EVEN SO...WILL STILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS FAIRLY GOOD PVA WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO RING OUT SOME SNOW AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL AND IN TIME THIS FEATURE MAY
SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AND  PICK UP SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS IT
MOVES EAST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THREAT INTO
TUESDAY.

FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE WARMING WAY TO FAST CONSIDERING ARCTIC AIR MASS KEEPS GETTING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.  SO WILL GO UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT IFR SOME LIFR CONDTIONS WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE NOW ON THE ILLINIOS/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING AND REACH SW PA AROUND BETWEEN 8
PM AND 10 PM LOCAL. CURRENTLY BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS WEST OF CHI. AT
CLE EXPECT 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD 8 PM
LOCAL.  THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.

THINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DO HOWEVER...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELT EAST
OF CLEVELAND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL BE THIS WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THEN PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN WINDS
REALLY START TO INCREASE. I AM EXPECTING WINDS TO APPROACH GALES ON
FRIDAY AND THEN GO TO GALES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUICK GALE EVENT AS WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FAIRLY LIGHT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KCLE 141639
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1139 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
OHIO TODAY AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND INTO NW PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOW LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AREA LOOKING REASONABLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WAYNE HOLMES
AND STARK COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADD THIS AREA IF THE
HEAVIER SNOWS DO NOT SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE SNOW
WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CONCERNS ARE WIND
CHILL AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT AND
LET THE NEXT SHIFTS MONITOR.

WITH REGARD TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY THE WIND WILL TRY TO
BECOME MORE WNW. WITH COLD AIR LIKE THIS THE LAKE EFFECT SOMETIMES
TAKES TIME TO GET GOING. ALSO WITH ICE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
THAT COULD LOWER THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE BUT WITH SOME MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL GO WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE SNOW
BELT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER
IT SHOULD GO LONGER BUT WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SHIFT THE WINDS
MORE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL MOVE THE SNOW OFFSHORE...WHILE THE NAM IS
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THIS. NONE THE LESS ENDING THE WATCH AT 7 PM
FRIDAY WILL GET US IN THE BALL PARK.

ELSEWHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM EITHER LAKE
MICHIGAN OR ERIE.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM THE NAM MODEL AS
THEY SEEM REASONABLE. WENT A LITTLE WARMER CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END
SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES WEST SOUTHWEST. THIS TRAJECTORY
WOULD CAUSE THE SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
FORCE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THIS WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE
INFLUENCE FOR SURE.

GOOD SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WE WILL LIKELY SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SLIGHT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY BUT A RETURN TO REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW ACTIVITY. YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. EVEN SO...WILL STILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS FAIRLY GOOD PVA WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO RING OUT SOME SNOW AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL AND IN TIME THIS FEATURE MAY
SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AND  PICK UP SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS IT
MOVES EAST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THREAT INTO
TUESDAY.

FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE WARMING WAY TO FAST CONSIDERING ARCTIC AIR MASS KEEPS GETTING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.  SO WILL GO UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW IS AS CLOSE AS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. I AM EXPECTING MID LEVEL DECK TO GRADUALLY LOWER
INTO MVFR AND THEN IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM
WEST TO EAST. I ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DROP AS
WELL AS SNOW SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION.

THE CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES...AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. I WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SNOW SHOWERS GOING AT THE ERIE TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECT THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EXPECT MVFR WEST AND MVFR TO IFR EAST IN A VERY
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE WEST ALTHOUGH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST MVFR KCLE AND POINTS EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. AGAIN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH IFR
LIKELY SATURDAY IN SNOW.  CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THEN PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN WINDS
REALLY START TO INCREASE. I AM EXPECTING WINDS TO APPROACH GALES ON
FRIDAY AND THEN GO TO GALES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUICK GALE EVENT AS WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FAIRLY LIGHT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 141611
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1111 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY BITTER COLD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER TONIGHT.
SNOW IS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW QPF RATIO LOOKING TO BE 15-1 OR EVEN
20-1 EXPECT ADVISORY SNOW GENERALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND
EXTENDED ADVISORY TO INDIANA COUNTY AS WELL WITH TERRAIN HELPING
THERE. AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH OUTSIDE OF ADVISORY SHOULD STAY IN THE
1-3 RANGE WITH BEST QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. EXPECT
ALL LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF WIND SPEEDS STAY
ABOVE CRITERIA OF 10 MPH.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF
I-80 AND ALONG THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST. WENT
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LES...AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
PREVENT EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW-WATER RATIOS. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE
SOME ISO LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH SOME THIN LAKE BANDS THAT CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THESE BANDS TO END AROUND 10Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH MID DECK BACK OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAWN AND THEN LOWER CIG AND VIS BY LATE MORNING. CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING TRACK OF CLIPPER TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
PUSHING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO MVFR CIGS AND VIS BY EARLY AFT. LOWER
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VIS WILL
ALSO DROP INTO IFR AS SNOW INCREASES BY LATE AFT. WITH TRACK OF
LOW...LOWEST VIS AND CIG VALUES WOULD LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

CLIPPER RUSHES EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT BUT SC WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION INTO THU NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE LES BANDS DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AIRPORTS THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS FOR THURSDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR VIS. HOWEVER...AIRPORTS WHICH EXPERIENCE A SNOW BAND
WILL SEE VIS DROP QUICKLY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THURSDAY WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES...AT LEAST BKN SC
SHOULD COVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY LES BANDS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN AIRPORTS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
QUICKLY BACK ON SAT. SC AND SCT -SW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ039-040-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ020-021-
     029-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ023-030-032.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021-022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 141606
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1006 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WITH ARCTIC COLD AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON UPDATE...SPED UP ADVANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON PER SATELLITE/RADAR/OBS. ALSO PUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN APPENDAGE OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. KEPT ADVISORIES AS IS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS.  THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS.  BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES.  IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.  AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD.  AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY.  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC.  THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB.  BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR.  BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE.  TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST.  ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW.  BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC.  FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.

ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD FROM INDIANA...AND THE LOW
CENTER WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NORTH OF A HTS-CRW-48I LINE...EXPECT VFR TO DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO
EAST TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...EXCEPT A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAY QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR BRIEFLY. AFTER 00Z...ARCTIC FRONT DROPS
ACROSS WITH SNOW SHOWERS SETTING UP OVER THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT OCCASIONALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.


AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A CLIPPER BRINGS
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KCLE 141606
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1106 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
OHIO TODAY AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND INTO NW PA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST
SNOW LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AREA LOOKING REASONABLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WAYNE HOLMES
AND STARK COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ADD THIS AREA IF THE
HEAVIER SNOWS DO NOT SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CONCERNS ARE WIND
CHILL AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT AND LET
THE NEXT SHIFTS MONITOR.

WITH REGARD TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY THE WIND WILL TRY TO
BECOME MORE WNW. WITH COLD AIR LIKE THIS THE LAKE EFFECT SOMETIMES
TAKES TIME TO GET GOING. ALSO WITH ICE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
THAT COULD LOWER THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE BUT WITH SOME MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL GO WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE SNOW
BELT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER
IT SHOULD GO LONGER BUT WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SHIFT THE WINDS
MORE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL MOVE THE SNOW OFFSHORE...WHILE THE NAM IS
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THIS. NONE THE LESS ENDING THE WATCH AT 7 PM
FRIDAY WILL GET US IN THE BALL PARK.

ELSEWHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM EITHER LAKE
MICHIGAN OR ERIE.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM THE NAM MODEL AS
THEY SEEM REASONABLE. WENT A LITTLE WARMER CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES WEST
SOUTHWEST.  THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD CAUSE THE SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL FORCE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE INFLUENCE FOR SURE.

GOOD SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WE WILL LIKELY SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SLIGHT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY BUT A RETURN TO REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW ACTIVITY. YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. EVEN SO...WILL STILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS FAIRLY GOOD PVA WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO RING OUT SOME SNOW AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL AND IN TIME THIS FEATURE MAY
SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AND  PICK UP SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS IT
MOVES EAST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THREAT INTO
TUESDAY.

FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE WARMING WAY TO FAST CONSIDERING ARCTIC AIR MASS KEEPS GETTING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.  SO WILL GO UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW IS AS CLOSE AS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. I AM EXPECTING MID LEVEL DECK TO GRADUALLY LOWER
INTO MVFR AND THEN IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM
WEST TO EAST. I ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DROP AS
WELL AS SNOW SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION.

THE CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES...AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. I WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SNOW SHOWERS GOING AT THE ERIE TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECT THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EXPECT MVFR WEST AND MVFR TO IFR EAST IN A VERY
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE WEST ALTHOUGH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST MVFR KCLE AND POINTS EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. AGAIN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH IFR
LIKELY SATURDAY IN SNOW.  CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THEN PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN WINDS
REALLY START TO INCREASE. I AM EXPECTING WINDS TO APPROACH GALES ON
FRIDAY AND THEN GO TO GALES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUICK GALE EVENT AS WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FAIRLY LIGHT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KILN 141547
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1047 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST. EMBEDDED S/W
TO DROP SE THRU THE OH VLY THIS EVE. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESS
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ACRS FAR SRN OHIO
THIS EVENING. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OCCUR TODAY WITH BEST
FORCING AND MSTR TO OCCUR THRU THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BASED ON
RADAR/SATL TRENDS THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. HAVE JUST
ADJUSTED NUMBERS SLIGHTLY LOWER. FURTHER SOUTH ACRS SRN OHIO AND
NRN KY...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHUD LIMIT AMOUNT OF
SNOWFALL. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF AND ONLY EXPECT AN
INCH OR TWO IN THE ADVSY AREA AND LESS SOUTH. THEREFORE...
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN ONE TO TWO INCHES.

WITH THE CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL PLUNGE WIND CHILLS INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE...LESS THAN
-10 F...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE NW/WEST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING
UPPER DISTURBANCE/LE.  WIND CHILLS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SUBZERO WITH
THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS...WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS AGAIN...PERHAPS -20 F TO -25 F OR LOWER IN THE
NORTH/NW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF
LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL SEE A FEW S/W
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT...TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST S/W HAS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING TO
THE NE AT THE SAME TIME. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. LOSES ITS
SHARP GRADIENT BUT REMAINS NEARLY AS STRONG...COVERING A WIDER AREA
OF THE GTLKS REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BROAD TROUGH MOVES S THROUGH THE ERN GTLKS ON TUES. BEHIND
THIS...THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E...LIMITING A
CONTINUED COLD SPELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

MODELLERS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING FAVOR WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SE MOVING SFC LOW WILL CROSS NRN
CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...OVERSPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AND
CUTTING THEM OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A GFS
SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STARTED/ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER/LATER. BY THE END OF THE FCST...ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE
REGION BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SWRN EDGE TO ITS ASSOC PRECIP ON
MON/TUE.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD. FEEL THAT ANY ERROR ON TEMPS
IN THE EXTENDED WOULD BE THAT THEY COULD BE TOO WARM GIVE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW FROM WESTERN INDIANA INTO EASTERN IOWA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. STILL APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL
BE FROM KDAY TO KCMH WHERE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TO
IFR/LIFR. HEADING SOUTH TOWARDS KCVG ONCE SNOW MOVES IN EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF IFR. SHOULD BE ONE LAST
BURST OF SNOW AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z.
THEREAFTER EXPECT PRIMARILY FLURRIES WITH MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062-
     070>072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     KYZ091>093.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ066-
     073>075.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KCLE 141146
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
OHIO TODAY AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL HAVE SOME LEFT OVER FLURRIES IN THE CLE AREA...THE THREAT
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE CONCERN FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER. AT THIS
TIME GOING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH (12-15 HOUR SNOW EVENT) AND
3 TO 5 INCHES (12-15 HOUR SNOW EVENT). USUALLY A LOW TRACKING ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER IS GOOD FOR DESCENT SNOW IN NORTHERN OHIO...BUT WITH A
WEAKER LOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THE ABOVE SEEMS REASONABLE. IN
THE NORTH A LITTLE ON THE EDGE WHETHER THESE AMOUNTS ARE TOO HIGH
BY AN INCH...BUT SINCE IT IS COLD THE SNOW WILL BE QUITE FLUFFY. SINCE
ILN IS GOING TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A PART OF THEIR
AREA NEAR MARION AND MORROW AND KNOX COUNTIES...WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HANCOCK THROUGH ASHLAND AND SOUTH FOR
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CRITERIA.

WITH REGARDS TO WIND CHILL...PART OF THE CRITERIA IS WINDS 10 MPH OR
MORE. SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE WIND CHILLS OF -10 EARLY THIS AM...BUT THAT
ARE NOT MEETING THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA AND THE WIND CHILL EVENT
NEEDS TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CONCERNS ARE WIND
CHILL AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT AND LET
THE NEXT SHIFTS MONITOR.

WITH REGARD TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY THE WIND WILL TRY TO
BECOME MORE WNW. WITH COLD AIR LIKE THIS THE LAKE EFFECT SOMETIMES
TAKES TIME TO GET GOING. ALSO WITH ICE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
THAT COULD LOWER THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE BUT WITH SOME MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL GO WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE SNOW
BELT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER
IT SHOULD GO LONGER BUT WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SHIFT THE WINDS
MORE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL MOVE THE SNOW OFFSHORE...WHILE THE NAM IS
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THIS. NONE THE LESS ENDING THE WATCH AT 7 PM
FRIDAY WILL GET US IN THE BALL PARK.

ELSEWHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM EITHER LAKE
MICHIGAN OR ERIE.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM THE NAM MODEL AS
THEY SEEM REASONABLE. WENT A LITTLE WARMER CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES WEST
SOUTHWEST.  THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD CAUSE THE SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL FORCE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE INFLUENCE FOR SURE.

GOOD SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WE WILL LIKELY SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SLIGHT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY BUT A RETURN TO REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW ACTIVITY. YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. EVEN SO...WILL STILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS FAIRLY GOOD PVA WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO RING OUT SOME SNOW AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL AND IN TIME THIS FEATURE MAY
SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AND  PICK UP SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS IT
MOVES EAST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THREAT INTO
TUESDAY.

FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE WARMING WAY TO FAST CONSIDERING ARCTIC AIR MASS KEEPS GETTING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.  SO WILL GO UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW IS AS CLOSE AS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. I AM EXPECTING MID LEVEL DECK TO GRADUALLY LOWER
INTO MVFR AND THEN IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM
WEST TO EAST. I ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY DROP AS
WELL AS SNOW SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION.

THE CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES...AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. I WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SNOW SHOWERS GOING AT THE ERIE TERMINAL THROUGH TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AFFECT THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EXPECT MVFR WEST AND MVFR TO IFR EAST IN A VERY
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE WEST ALTHOUGH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST MVFR KCLE AND POINTS EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. AGAIN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH IFR
LIKELY SATURDAY IN SNOW.  CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THEN PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN WINDS
REALLY START TO INCREASE. I AM EXPECTING WINDS TO APPROACH GALES ON
FRIDAY AND THEN GO TO GALES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUICK GALE EVENT AS WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FAIRLY LIGHT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KILN 141144
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK...BUT
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO EXPECT
A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE SNOW WILL BE POWDERY...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LIQUID
WATER TO SNOW RATIOS. FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-70 THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT...MUCH LESS ALONG AND SOUTH THE OHIO
RIVER. HOWEVER...THE COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 HAVE A
LIKELIHOOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING 8 AM TODAY THOUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE CAA BEHIND
THE LOW...WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PLUNGE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE...LESS THAN -10 F...SO WILL
FOLLOW WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NW/WEST
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING
UPPER DISTURBANCE/LE.  WIND CHILLS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SUBZERO WITH
THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS...WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS AGAIN...PERHAPS -20 F TO -25 F OR LOWER IN THE
NORTH/NW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF
LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL SEE A FEW S/W
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT...TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST S/W HAS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING TO
THE NE AT THE SAME TIME. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. LOSES ITS
SHARP GRADIENT BUT REMAINS NEARLY AS STRONG...COVERING A WIDER AREA
OF THE GTLKS REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BROAD TROUGH MOVES S THROUGH THE ERN GTLKS ON TUES. BEHIND
THIS...THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E...LIMITING A
CONTINUED COLD SPELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

MODELLERS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING FAVOR WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SE MOVING SFC LOW WILL CROSS NRN
CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...OVERSPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AND
CUTTING THEM OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A GFS
SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STARTED/ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER/LATER. BY THE END OF THE FCST...ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE
REGION BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SWRN EDGE TO ITS ASSOC PRECIP ON
MON/TUE.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD. FEEL THAT ANY ERROR ON TEMPS
IN THE EXTENDED WOULD BE THAT THEY COULD BE TOO WARM GIVE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW FROM WESTERN INDIANA INTO EASTERN IOWA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. STILL APPEARS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL
BE FROM KDAY TO KCMH WHERE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TO
IFR/LIFR. HEADING SOUTH TOWARDS KCVG ONCE SNOW MOVES IN EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF IFR. SHOULD BE ONE LAST
BURST OF SNOW AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSES AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z.
THEREAFTER EXPECT PRIMARILY FLURRIES WITH MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE ARCTIC AIR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062-
     070>072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     KYZ091>093.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
     059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ066-
     073>075.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KRLX 141118
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER CLIPPER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...THANKS TO A PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THAT BAND HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
LIFTING NE A THE FLOW ALOFT IS BACKING AROUND TO THE SW IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.  AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHALLOW
UP...EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD
BE OVER BY 12Z.  THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.

THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS.  THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS.  BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES.  IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.  AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD.  AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY.  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC.  THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB.  BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR.  BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE.  TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST.  ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW.  BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC.  FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.

ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES STILL LINGERING THANKS TO LINGERING
COLD ADVECTION...BUT AS FLOW TURNS WSW IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW OVER IOWA...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW
SUBSIDE TEMPORARILY. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS STILL FLOATING
AROUND...BUT BY 14Z EXPECT CEILINGS TO ALL HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR
LEVELS AS MID DECK AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW MOVES IN.

THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL THE BIG QUESTION AS AREAS NORTH OF
THE LOW WILL SEE THE WIDE SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. SOUTH OF THE TRACK...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES...AT WHICH TIME A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED. AT THIS
TIME...PKB/CKB ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOW
TRACK ALONG WITH EKN. WHILE HTS/CRW AND BKW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE.

ONCE THE LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT PASS...THE FLOW TURNS NWRLY AND WITH
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON GOING...EXPECT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A CLIPPER BRINGS
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 140936
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
435 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  ANOTHER CLIPPER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STILL DEALING WITH ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...THANKS TO A PLUME
OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THAT BAND HAS ACTUALLY BEEN
LIFTING NE A THE FLOW ALOFT IS BACKING AROUND TO THE SW IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.  AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHALLOW
UP...EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD
BE OVER BY 12Z.  THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES.

THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CLIPPER IN A SIMILAR FASHION...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING ITEMS TO WATCH. THE SURFACE LOW AT 9Z IS
OVER SRN IOWA AND HAS BEEN MOVING SE OF THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS.  THE
NAM AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED THE MOVEMENT WELL THROUGH THE 6Z AND 9Z
TIME STEPS.  BUT THE INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT IN THE PRESSURE
FIELDS...THE BOTH TRACK THE LOW TOWARD HTS BY 00Z...BUT THE WINDS
FIELD INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH...BY AS MUCH AS
100 MILES.  IF IT IS FURTHER NORTH...THAT PUSH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
INDUCED SNOW FURTHER NORTH...BUT IF THE LOW FOLLOWS THE PRESSURE
FIELD...IT WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH.  AT THIS
POINT...FELT THAT THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS BASED UPON THE MAV
GUIDANCE...HAVE UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH...LIKE THE TRACK
FROM THE PRESSURE FIELD.  AND WITH THAT TRACK...EXPECT TO SEE A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND NRN WV
TODAY.  THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD TRACK ALONG A LINE FROM CVG TO
LHQ TO HLG....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GUIDANCE FROM HPC.  THEREFORE
WENT WITH A TWO COUNTY...PERRY AND MORGAN...WW ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...AS 2 TO 3 INCHES IS LIKELY. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...AMOUNT
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...FROM JACKSON OHIO TO
CKB.  BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE SLOW GOES FURTHER SOUTH...COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD.

SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...NOT AS MUCH SNOW IS EXPECT...AS
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE A FACTOR...AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS
POOR.  BUT...WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE COLD FRONT...STILL ANTICIPATING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR WILL SQUEEZE OUT WHAT EVER MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE.  TYPICALLY...THESE FRONT WILL PRODUCE AND BURST OF
SNOW THAT LAST AND HOUR OR SO...THEREFORE WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AND
WENT WITH A LIKELY POPS FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD MINOR AT BEST.  ONCE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...THE FLOW
TURNS NW AND WITH THE MOISTURE DEPTHS STILL AROUND 750 MB AND THE
SOUNDING SHOWING THE CLOUDS WELL INTO THE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE...SHOULD SEE THE SNOW SHOWER MACHINE KICK IN...ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS THE WITH AIR THIS COLD ANY CLOUD WILL BE PRODUCING
SNOW.  BUT THE NRN MOUNTAINS...WHICH ARE THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREA...CAN EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW THERE AS
WELL.

FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE FWC WAS MUCH COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS FOR TODAY...AND BASED UPON THE FACT THAT MODELS DO NOT SEEM
TO BE HANDLING HOW COLD THE CURRENT AIR MASS IS AND THE FACT THAT
CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING BACK IN QUICKLY THIS MORNING...ELECTED TO GO
LOWER THE PREVIOUS FCST SOME TOWARD THE COOLER FWC.  FOR
TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ARRIVING AND THE MODELS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR NOT HANDLING THESE FEATURES WELL...SO HAVE GONE UNDER
ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS COULD HOLD TEMPS UP SO
ONLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SNOW FOR THURSDAY. WITH SUCH
A COLD AIR MASS...WILL GO WITH LOWER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MAY CLEAR AS THE
LAKE PLUMES SHIFT NORTHWARD. WILL GO WELL BELOW ALL GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS IN THESE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY REMAINING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
WARM AND CLOUDS CLEAR.

ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING MOISTURE FROM A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...SO INCREASED SKY COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND RADAR INDICATES THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE BACK EDGE ON
RADAR IS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT NW TO SE
BANDS...ONE THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING HTS AND A SECOND ONE THAT IS
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF 48I. OUTSIDE OF THOSE BANDS...JUST A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL FLOATING BY. SO INSIDE OF THE
BANDS...WHICH COULD IMPACT HTS AND BKW AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE...THE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL.

THE CLOUDS WITH THE UPSLOPE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT GONE BY 12Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ARRIVE. CURRENTLY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING
OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCH SE IN EASTERN
MISSOURI. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SRN INDIANA BY
18Z AND TO NEAR 3I2 BY 00Z. BY 15Z AT PKB/HTS...THE MID DECK
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THE CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT ALL SITES BY 18Z WITH A GRADUALLY LOWER OF
THE CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW...EXPECT SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PKB/CKB/EKN AFTER
21Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THE LOW
TRACK...HTS/CRW/BKW WILL STILL SEE SOME SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE ALONG
THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AT HTS AND 3Z
AT BKW...AND SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A CLIPPER BRINGS
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ038>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KCLE 140917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
OHIO TODAY AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL HAVE SOME LEFT OVER FLURRIES IN THE CLE AREA...THE THREAT
SHOULD END AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE CONCERN FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER. AT THIS
TIME GOING WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTH (12-15 HOUR SNOW EVENT) AND
3 TO 5 INCHES (12-15 HOUR SNOW EVENT). USUALLY A LOW TRACKING ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER IS GOOD FOR DESCENT SNOW IN NORTHERN OHIO...BUT WITH A
WEAKER LOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THE ABOVE SEEMS REASONABLE. IN
THE NORTH A LITTLE ON THE EDGE WHETHER THESE AMOUNTS ARE TOO HIGH
BY AN INCH...BUT SINCE IT IS COLD THE SNOW WILL BE QUITE FLUFFY. SINCE
ILN IS GOING TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A PART OF THEIR
AREA NEAR MARION AND MORROW AND KNOX COUNTIES...WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HANCOCK THROUGH ASHLAND AND SOUTH FOR
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CRITERIA.

WITH REGARDS TO WIND CHILL...PART OF THE CRITERIA IS WINDS 10 MPH OR
MORE. SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE WIND CHILLS OF -10 EARLY THIS AM...BUT THAT
ARE NOT MEETING THE WIND SPEED CRITERIA AND THE WIND CHILL EVENT
NEEDS TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. THE NEXT CONCERNS ARE WIND
CHILL AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT AND LET
THE NEXT SHIFTS MONITOR.

WITH REGARD TO LAKE EFFECT FOR THURSDAY THE WIND WILL TRY TO
BECOME MORE WNW. WITH COLD AIR LIKE THIS THE LAKE EFFECT SOMETIMES
TAKES TIME TO GET GOING. ALSO WITH ICE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE
THAT COULD LOWER THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE BUT WITH SOME MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL GO WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE SNOW
BELT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY. SOME QUESTION WHETHER
IT SHOULD GO LONGER BUT WITH THE GFS TRYING TO SHIFT THE WINDS
MORE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL MOVE THE SNOW OFFSHORE...WHILE THE NAM IS
A LITTLE SLOWER ON THIS. NONE THE LESS ENDING THE WATCH AT 7 PM
FRIDAY WILL GET US IN THE BALL PARK.

ELSEWHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM EITHER LAKE
MICHIGAN OR ERIE.

WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM THE NAM MODEL AS
THEY SEEM REASONABLE. WENT A LITTLE WARMER CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES WEST
SOUTHWEST.  THIS TRAJECTORY WOULD CAUSE THE SNOW ACTIVITY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL FORCE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND THIS
WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE INFLUENCE FOR SURE.

GOOD SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
WE WILL LIKELY SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SLIGHT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SATURDAY BUT A RETURN TO REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW ACTIVITY. YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. EVEN SO...WILL STILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS FAIRLY GOOD PVA WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO RING OUT SOME SNOW AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL AND IN TIME THIS FEATURE MAY
SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AND  PICK UP SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS IT
MOVES EAST. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THREAT INTO
TUESDAY.

FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH QUITE CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE WARMING WAY TO FAST CONSIDERING ARCTIC AIR MASS KEEPS GETTING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.  SO WILL GO UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WESTERN TERMINALS HAVE CLEARED ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MOISTURE
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BROUGHT CIGS BACK TO KFDY FOR A FEW HOURS.
COULD STILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER KCAK KERI AND KYNG ALTHOUGH EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THERE TOO OVERNIGHT. NEXT SURFACE LOW IS
APPROACHING QUICKLY AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AFTER 08-10Z
IN THE WEST WITH VFR CIGS. AFTER 12Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP
FURTHER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR IN THE WEST...SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE DELAWARE COAST. WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH
LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE CONDITIONS WILL WAVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EXPECT MVFR WEST AND MVFR TO IFR EAST IN A VERY
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE WEST ALTHOUGH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST MVFR KCLE AND POINTS EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. AGAIN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH IFR
LIKELY SATURDAY IN SNOW.  CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON THE LAKE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THEN PICK UP A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN WINDS
REALLY START TO INCREASE. I AM EXPECTING WINDS TO APPROACH GALES ON
FRIDAY AND THEN GO TO GALES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUICK GALE EVENT AS WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AND ALL THE WAY DOWN TO FAIRLY LIGHT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ012>014-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140848 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
348 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY BITTER COLD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH AMOUNTS KEPT DOWN BY THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTH WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT AMOUNTS APPEAR TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
RIDGES...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. EXPECT
ALL LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF WIND SPEEDS STAY
ABOVE CRITERIA OF 10 MPH.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF
I-80 AND ALONG THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST. WENT
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LES...AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
PREVENT EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW-WATER RATIOS. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE
SOME ISO LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH SOME THIN LAKE BANDS THAT CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THESE BANDS TO END AROUND 10Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH MID DECK BACK OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAWN AND THEN LOWER CIG AND VIS BY LATE MORNING. CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING TRACK OF CLIPPER TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
PUSHING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO MVFR CIGS AND VIS BY EARLY AFT. LOWER
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VIS WILL
ALSO DROP INTO IFR AS SNOW INCREASES BY LATE AFT. WITH TRACK OF
LOW...LOWEST VIS AND CIG VALUES WOULD LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

CLIPPER RUSHES EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT BUT SC WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION INTO THU NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE LES BANDS DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AIRPORTS THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS FOR THURSDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR VIS. HOWEVER...AIRPORTS WHICH EXPERIENCE A SNOW BAND
WILL SEE VIS DROP QUICKLY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THURSDAY WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES...AT LEAST BKN SC
SHOULD COVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY LES BANDS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN AIRPORTS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
QUICKLY BACK ON SAT. SC AND SCT -SW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ030-032.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KILN 140813
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
313 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK...BUT
THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO EXPECT
A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE SNOW WILL BE POWDERY...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LIQUID
WATER TO SNOW RATIOS. FOR MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-70 THIS WILL
LIKELY BE A 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT...MUCH LESS ALONG AND SOUTH THE OHIO
RIVER. HOWEVER...THE COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 HAVE A
LIKELIHOOD OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING 8 AM TODAY THOUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE CAA BEHIND
THE LOW...WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PLUNGE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE...LESS THAN -10 F...SO WILL
FOLLOW WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NW/WEST
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING
UPPER DISTURBANCE/LE.  WIND CHILLS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SUBZERO WITH
THE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS...WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS AGAIN...PERHAPS -20 F TO -25 F OR LOWER IN THE
NORTH/NW. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF
LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL SEE A FEW S/W
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT...TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST S/W HAS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING TO
THE NE AT THE SAME TIME. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. LOSES ITS
SHARP GRADIENT BUT REMAINS NEARLY AS STRONG...COVERING A WIDER AREA
OF THE GTLKS REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BROAD TROUGH MOVES S THROUGH THE ERN GTLKS ON TUES. BEHIND
THIS...THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E...LIMITING A
CONTINUED COLD SPELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

MODELLERS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING FAVOR WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SE MOVING SFC LOW WILL CROSS NRN
CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...OVERSPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AND
CUTTING THEM OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A GFS
SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STARTED/ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER/LATER. BY THE END OF THE FCST...ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE
REGION BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SWRN EDGE TO ITS ASSOC PRECIP ON
MON/TUE.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD. FEEL THAT ANY ERROR ON TEMPS
IN THE EXTENDED WOULD BE THAT THEY COULD BE TOO WARM GIVE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CLIPPER THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD IN AFTER 12Z WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. IFR/LIFR WILL OCCUR FROM KDAY
TO KCMH. FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KCVG IT APPEARS THAT
MVFR WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH PERIODS OF IFR. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z AT WHICH POINT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL COME UP BUT STILL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AFTER
THE LOW PASSES AND GUST UP TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062-
     070>072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR INZ066-073>075.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140756
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
256 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY BITTER COLD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH AMOUNTS KEPT DOWN BY THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE NORTH WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT...AND ALONG THE RIDGES DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. EVEN WITH THOSE CONSIDERATIONS...AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. EXPECT
ALL LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW ZERO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IF WIND SPEEDS STAY
ABOVE CRITERIA OF 10 MPH.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF
I-80 AND ALONG THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY...AND SHOULD COME TO AN END
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST. WENT
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LES...AS COLDER AIR SHOULD
PREVENT EXCESSIVELY HIGH SNOW-WATER RATIOS. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE WILL BE
SOME ISO LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH SOME THIN LAKE BANDS THAT CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THESE BANDS TO END AROUND 10Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH MID DECK BACK OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAWN AND THEN LOWER CIG AND VIS BY LATE MORNING. CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING TRACK OF CLIPPER TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
PUSHING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO MVFR CIGS AND VIS BY EARLY AFT. LOWER
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VIS WILL
ALSO DROP INTO IFR AS SNOW INCREASES BY LATE AFT. WITH TRACK OF
LOW...LOWEST VIS AND CIG VALUES WOULD LIKELY BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

CLIPPER RUSHES EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT BUT SC WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION INTO THU NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE LES BANDS DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AIRPORTS THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS FOR THURSDAY
WITH MAINLY VFR VIS. HOWEVER...AIRPORTS WHICH EXPERIENCE A SNOW BAND
WILL SEE VIS DROP QUICKLY INTO THE IFR RANGE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE THURSDAY WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH.

WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES...AT LEAST BKN SC
SHOULD COVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY LES BANDS SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO NORTHERN AIRPORTS.

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BRING LOWER CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
QUICKLY BACK ON SAT. SC AND SCT -SW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 140623
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY.  SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ARRIVES
THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RAPID CHANGES CONTINUE IN A FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXITING SYSTEM THIS EVENING...AND
WITH A VIGOROUS CLIPPER APPROACHING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRST...STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BIG STORY IS THE
FIRST PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN. BELIEVE THIS IS A TYPICAL CASE
OF THE MODELS NOT HANDLING THE ARCTIC AIR WELL...BEING TOO HIGH
TONIGHT ON TEMPS CONSIDERING THE VERY COLD TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. GOING LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT STILL NOT WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY DUE TO WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATER. ALSO...CLEARING THINGS OUT FASTER THAN THE MODELS LATER
TONIGHT AS IS TYPICAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR. EVEN THE PLUMES OFF THE
LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS GREATLY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THUS...DO HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING IN THE WEST...BUT STILL KEPT FLURRIES FOR A WHILE. MOST
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES END IN LOWLANDS BY 06Z...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
BY 10Z.

CLIPPER WEDNESDAY HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS...ITS TRACK COMING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN EAST TO WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF PKB-CKB LINE. THUS...MODELS HAVE MOST
OF THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...SOUTHERN AREA WILL GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE
SUNSHINE WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. THUS...WENT FOR A BIGGER TEMP
RANGE...MILDER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND COLDER IN THE NORTH.
ANY SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCE OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM...AND THEN A QUESTION OF HOW LOW WILL THE TEMPERATURES GO IN
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.

MODELS HAVE FIRMED UP A BIT ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW...NOW TAKING THE
CENTER FROM JUST EAST OF CVG AT 00Z THU TO JUST EAST OF EKN BY 06Z
FRIDAY. BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL FALL ALONG OR NORTH OF THIS
TRACK...AHEAD OF WARM FRONT IN SW WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHERE UVV
IS MAXIMIZED.  THUS HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS...LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL...NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY
SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE EVENING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLD ADVECTION GETS GOING.  LIKELY/CAT POPS THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPS IN MOIST LAYER...WITH
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-15Z NOTED ON EKN BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

GOING WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
1-3 INCHES IN THE USUAL TRIO OF RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...AND
WEBSTER.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS IN THE
FAVORED COUNTIES...AND WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THINK MOS MAY BE UNDERDOING COLD AIR A BIT.  WENT AT
OR BELOW THE COLDER MAV.

BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
H850 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -22C THURSDAY EVENING.  SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF COURSE.  AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD DOWN WITH TIME AS AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH.  GENERALLY
KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  COVERAGE STARTS TO WANE GREATLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH AND RETURN OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AGAIN KEPT VALUES AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MAV.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RISE FOR THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SLOW COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. IF SOME WESTERN COUNTIES ARE ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IF SUCH AN AREA HAS SNOW ON THE GROUND...COULD EVEN SEE
SOME ISOLATED BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA.  WITH
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WIND CHILL LEVELS.
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN MIXED...WITH 5-10KT
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN HWO AS WELL.

SUNSHINE RETURNS FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN...BUT -20C H850
TEMPS REMAIN.  KEPT PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID WHICH WAS ALREADY
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW MEX/MEN NUMBERS.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE LUCKY
TO SEE 15 DEGREES FOR A DAILY HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND RADAR INDICATES THAT
THEY WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE BACK EDGE ON
RADAR IS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT NW TO SE
BANDS...ONE THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING HTS AND A SECOND ONE THAT IS
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF 48I. OUTSIDE OF THOSE BANDS...JUST A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL FLOATING BY. SO INSIDE OF THE
BANDS...WHICH COULD IMPACT HTS AND BKW AT THIS POINT...EXPECT SOME
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE...THE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL.

THE CLOUDS WITH THE UPSLOPE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT GONE BY 12Z. THIS
WILL ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ARRIVE. CURRENTLY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ORGANIZING
OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCH SE IN EASTERN
MISSOURI. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SRN INDIANA BY
18Z AND TO NEAR 3I2 BY 00Z. BY 15Z AT PKB/HTS...THE MID DECK
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN THE
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. THE CEILINGS WILL
SPREAD EAST AND AFFECT ALL SITES BY 18Z WITH A GRADUALLY LOWER OF
THE CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
SFC LOW...EXPECT SOME SNOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PKB/CKB/EKN AFTER
21Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH OF THE LOW
TRACK...HTS/CRW/BKW WILL STILL SEE SOME SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE
ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AT HTS
AND 3Z AT BKW...AND SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z THURSDAY/... IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ESS

000
FXUS61 KILN 140608
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
108 AM EST WED JAN 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PROVIDE SNOW AS IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLURRIES/SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PORTIONS OF FA.
ALTHOUGH THIS PATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN IS NOW CUT OFF FROM THE LAKES IT
IS STILL PRODUCING. EXPECT THERE TO BE A CHANCE OF PCPN UNTIL
THESE LOWER CLOUD CLEAR THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASED
POPS IN THE E TO COVER THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO THE NW. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
RAPIDLY. THE THOUGHT AN HOUR AGO IS THAT OUR CURRENT LOWS WOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH...BECAUSE WE HAD GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...AND AS THE CLOUDS WORK BACK IN AHEAD OF LOW...THAT
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP. MIGHT HAVE TO CHANGE MY MIND AND LOWER
THEM. WILL LOOK AT THE 10 PM OBS AND DECIDE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FA WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES BEFORE
CLOUDS WORK BACK IN. TRIED TO MENTION THAT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE RIVER CAN EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THOUGH QPF IS RATHER LOW IN THE ONE TO THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH RANGE...COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A 17 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. STAYED
WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SINCE THERE IS
STILL TIME TO ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA...INCLUDING
COLUMBUS AND DAYTON...CAN EXPECT UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES AROUND CINCINNATI. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
WATCH.

AS EXPECTED...THE CLIPPER WILL EXIT QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STEADY SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY COLD
AIR CROSSING THE WARMER GREAT LAKES WILL PICK UP MOISTURE ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE LAKES WILL USHER IN A
FRIGID AIRMASS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
DEEPEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
WIND CHILLS MAY FALL TO MINUS 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF
LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL SEE A FEW S/W
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT...TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST S/W HAS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING TO
THE NE AT THE SAME TIME. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. LOSES ITS
SHARP GRADIENT BUT REMAINS NEARLY AS STRONG...COVERING A WIDER AREA
OF THE GTLKS REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BROAD TROUGH MOVES S THROUGH THE ERN GTLKS ON TUES. BEHIND
THIS...THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E...LIMITING A
CONTINUED COLD SPELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

MODELLERS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING FAVOR WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SE MOVING SFC LOW WILL CROSS NRN
CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...OVERSPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AND
CUTTING THEM OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A GFS
SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STARTED/ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER/LATER. BY THE END OF THE FCST...ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE
REGION BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SWRN EDGE TO ITS ASSOC PRECIP ON
MON/TUE.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD. FEEL THAT ANY ERROR ON TEMPS
IN THE EXTENDED WOULD BE THAT THEY COULD BE TOO WARM GIVE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO CLIPPER THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD IN AFTER 12Z WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. IFR/LIFR WILL OCCUR FROM KDAY
TO KCMH. FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KCVG IT APPEARS THAT
MVFR WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH PERIODS OF IFR. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 21Z AND 0Z AT WHICH POINT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL COME UP BUT STILL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST AFTER
THE LOW PASSES AND GUST UP TO 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KCLE 140438
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1138 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES SO FURTHER
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED.  HIGH CLOUDS FROM NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW IL.  THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE
IN NW PART OF CWA ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
THICKEN REST OF TONIGHT IN THE NW WHILE SPERADING OVER THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA.  THUS NOT SURE IF TEMPS WILL SHOW HUGE DROPS AS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON A CLEAR...LIGHT WIND AND FRESHLY SNOW COVERED
GROUND.  WESTERN AREA AROUND 10 DEG NOW. WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS
ARRIVING WILL ONLY ACT TO OPEN UP THE RANGE MORE TO ALLOW FOR SOME
FAVORED LOCATION TO GET ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF ZERO.

WINDS SEEMS TO BE DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH BEFORE TEMPS GET LOW ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS TO MINUS 10 OR LESS SO WILL ALSO
CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRACK OF LOW TOMORROW A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YDY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...EVEN
THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE SNOW
WILL START IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
NIGHT.

GOOD BET FOR LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT
SHOULD DECREASE LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

WENT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ENERGY
DIVES ACROSS OHIO AND INTO PA. A WAVE ON FRIDAY MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ON FRIDAY FOR ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO
NW PA THEN THE NEXT WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE LAST ONE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

EACH WAVE LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LAKE CAN REMAIN OPEN THEN THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOW BELT. COLD AIR WILL
BE BRIEFLY MODIFIED AHEAD OF EACH STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR IN THEIR WAKE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND MAY RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WESTERN TERMINALS HAVE CLEARED ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MOISTURE
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BROUGH CIGS BACK TO KFDY FOR A FEW HOURS.
COULD STILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER KCAK KERI AND KYNG ALTHOUGH EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THERE TOO OVERNIGHT. NEXT SURFACE LOW IS
APPROACHING QUICKLY AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA AFTER 08-10Z
IN THE WEST WITH VFR CIGS. AFTER 12Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP
FURTHER TO MVFR AND THEN IFR IN THE WEST...SPREADDING EAST THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE DELAWARE COAST. WOULD EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH
LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE CONDITIONS WILL WAVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY EXPECT MVFR WEST AND MVFR TO IFR EAST IN A VERY
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARCTIC HIGH RPESSURE WILL BUILD IN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR IN THE WEST ALTHOUGH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST MVFR KCLE AND POINTS EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW
DROPPING INTO THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. AGAIN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH IFR
LIKELY SATURDAY IN SNOW.  CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...TRADED THE GALE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST
HALF. WEST HALD MOSTLY ICE COVERED TO DID NOT ISSUE SCA THERE.

PREVIOUS...WHILE GALES WILL BE MARGINAL AND ONLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...STILL HAD TO EXTEND GALE WARNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ITS NOT LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS SO AT 4PM AS
SECONDARY BOUNDARY JUST NOW CROSSING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE. LAKE IS GETTING GALE FORCE GUSTS. DECREASE WILL BE QUICK
THIS EVENING THOUGH.

BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WILL TAKE WINDS FROM EAST
THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST.

STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH HANGS BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT UP SLIGHTLY AND
THEREFORE HAVE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
TRACK OF WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH TO CURRENT
SYSTEMS...ACROSS OHIO VALLEY.  THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE GALE FORCE
POSSIBILITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK THE SYSTEM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK/OUDEMAN

000
FXUS61 KILN 140226
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PROVIDE SNOW AS IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FLURRIES/SCT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE PORTIONS OF FA.
ALTHOUGH THIS PATCH OF CLOUDS/PCPN IS NOW CUT OFF FROM THE LAKES IT
IS STILL PRODUCING. EXPECT THERE TO BE A CHANCE OF PCPN UNTIL
THESE LOWER CLOUD CLEAR THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASED
POPS IN THE E TO COVER THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS.

CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALREADY WORKED INTO THE NW. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
RAPIDLY. THE THOUGHT AN HOUR AGO IS THAT OUR CURRENT LOWS WOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH...BECAUSE WE HAD GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE...AND AS THE CLOUDS WORK BACK IN AHEAD OF LOW...THAT
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP. MIGHT HAVE TO CHANGE MY MIND AND LOWER
THEM. WILL LOOK AT THE 10 PM OBS AND DECIDE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FA WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES BEFORE
CLOUDS WORK BACK IN. TRIED TO MENTION THAT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE RIVER CAN EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THOUGH QPF IS RATHER LOW IN THE ONE TO THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH RANGE...COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A 17 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. STAYED
WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SINCE THERE IS
STILL TIME TO ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA...INCLUDING
COLUMBUS AND DAYTON...CAN EXPECT UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES AROUND CINCINNATI. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
WATCH.

AS EXPECTED...THE CLIPPER WILL EXIT QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STEADY SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY COLD
AIR CROSSING THE WARMER GREAT LAKES WILL PICK UP MOISTURE ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE LAKES WILL USHER IN A
FRIGID AIRMASS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
DEEPEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
WIND CHILLS MAY FALL TO MINUS 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF
LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL SEE A FEW S/W
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT...TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST S/W HAS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING TO
THE NE AT THE SAME TIME. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. LOSES ITS
SHARP GRADIENT BUT REMAINS NEARLY AS STRONG...COVERING A WIDER AREA
OF THE GTLKS REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BROAD TROUGH MOVES S THROUGH THE ERN GTLKS ON TUES. BEHIND
THIS...THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E...LIMITING A
CONTINUED COLD SPELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

MODELLERS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING FAVOR WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SE MOVING SFC LOW WILL CROSS NRN
CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...OVERSPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AND
CUTTING THEM OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A GFS
SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STARTED/ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER/LATER. BY THE END OF THE FCST...ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE
REGION BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SWRN EDGE TO ITS ASSOC PRECIP ON
MON/TUE.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD. FEEL THAT ANY ERROR ON TEMPS
IN THE EXTENDED WOULD BE THAT THEY COULD BE TOO WARM GIVE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FIRST LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NW FLOW
HAS KEPT SHSN ACRS THE TAFS...BUT FETCH OFF LK MI HAS FINALLY
BROKEN. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THE BACKEDGE OF THE
CLDS/SHSN IS APPROACHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE FA. EXPECT A COUPLE OF
MORE HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS/SHSN.

CI WILL THEN SPILL OVER THE SFC HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NEXT LOW
IS FCST TO DIVE INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE LOW FROM N EVV-NR CVG. THE 18Z NAM HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SOUTH...TAKING IT THRU NRN KY TO NR HTS. THE 18Z
GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z PATH.

LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THEREFORE BROUGHT MVFR SN
IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS TAFS...AROUND 11Z IN THE W. WITH LOW
TRACKING NR OH RIVER...HEAVIEST SNOWS AND LOWEST VSBYS SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE NRN TAFS.

AS LOW GO BY 18Z-00Z WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W AND WILL INCREASE.
VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A LITTLE.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...SITES

000
FXUS61 KCLE 140221
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
920 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES SO FURTHER
ACCUMULATION TONIGHT SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS SO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED.  HIGH CLOUDS FROM NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY
MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND NW IL.  THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO ARRIVE
IN NW PART OF CWA ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
THICKEN REST OF TONIGHT IN THE NW WHILE SPERADING OVER THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA.  THUS NOT SURE IF TEMPS WILL SHOW HUGE DROPS AS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON A CLEAR...LIGHT WIND AND FRESHLY SNOW COVERED
GROUND.  WESTERN AREA AROUND 10 DEG NOW. WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS
ARRIVING WILL ONLY ACT TO OPEN UP THE RANGE MORE TO ALLOW FOR SOME
FAVORED LOCATION TO GET ON THE BOTTOM SIDE OF ZERO.

WINDS SEEMS TO BE DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH BEFORE TEMPS GET LOW ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS TO MINUS 10 OR LESS SO WILL ALSO
CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRACK OF LOW TOMORROW A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YDY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...EVEN
THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE SNOW
WILL START IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
NIGHT.

GOOD BET FOR LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT
SHOULD DECREASE LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

WENT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ENERGY
DIVES ACROSS OHIO AND INTO PA. A WAVE ON FRIDAY MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ON FRIDAY FOR ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO
NW PA THEN THE NEXT WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE LAST ONE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

EACH WAVE LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LAKE CAN REMAIN OPEN THEN THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOW BELT. COLD AIR WILL
BE BRIEFLY MODIFIED AHEAD OF EACH STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR IN THEIR WAKE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND MAY RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE BUILDING IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WESTERN TERMINALS TO COME UP TO VFR
ALTHOUGH A SNOW SHOWER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SUBSIDENCE HOWEVER SHOULD TAKE OVER AND DIMINISH THE
THREAT. THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. WITH WESTERN LAKE ERIE MOSTLY ICE
COVERED KCLE SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...FROM KCAK
TO KYNG AND KERI WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY IFR
THROUGH 08Z. WINDS WILL BACK AFTER 08Z IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
AFTER 12Z WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
EACH PASSING WAVE. ONE STORM WILL PASS ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER
ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...TRADED THE GALE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST
HALF. WEST HALD MOSTLY ICE COVERED TO DID NOT ISSUE SCA THERE.

PREVIOUS...WHILE GALES WILL BE MARGINAL AND ONLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...STILL HAD TO EXTEND GALE WARNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ITS NOT LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS SO AT 4PM AS
SECONDARY BOUNDARY JUST NOW CROSSING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE. LAKE IS GETTING GALE FORCE GUSTS. DECREASE WILL BE QUICK
THIS EVENING THOUGH.

BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WILL TAKE WINDS FROM EAST
THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST.

STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH HANGS BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT UP SLIGHTLY AND
THEREFORE HAVE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
TRACK OF WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH TO CURRENT
SYSTEMS...ACROSS OHIO VALLEY.  THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE GALE FORCE
POSSIBILITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK THE SYSTEM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN/TK

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 140044 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
744 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BRINING LIGHT ACCUMULATION. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
BITTER COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 00Z AND WILL
EXIT CWA LATER THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
EXCEPT OVER THE RIDGES WHERE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION MAY BE EXPECTED...SUB ADVISORY AMOUNTS. CLIPPER THEN
QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD REGION WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS
REGION WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. WESTERN CWA MAY SEE AN INCH
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST AWAY FORM BEST MOISTURE. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES REPRESENT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WITH
AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING TO
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH SYSTEM
BUT SNOW EQUIVALENT RATIO WILL BE HIGH. WENT WITH A GENERAL 1-3
INCHES ACROSS REGION ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH. LATER SHIFTS WILL FINE TUNE ACCUMULATIONS AND NEED FOR ANY
ADVISORY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COLDEST AIR OF YEAR SO FAR WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO AND MAX TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROFF MOVING ACROSS FRIDAY SO
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO MID ATLANTIC
STATES. GENERALLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT. THIS
WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER/DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE
TUESDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN.

ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
AND SCATTERED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. A THIRD
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOW
AND IFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15

000
FXUS61 KRLX 140022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
718 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY.  SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ARRIVES
THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAPID CHANGES CONTINUE IN A FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXITING SYSTEM THIS EVENING...AND
WITH A VIGOROUS CLIPPER APPROACHING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRST...STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BIG STORY IS THE
FIRST PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN. BELIEVE THIS IS A TYPICAL CASE
OF THE MODELS NOT HANDLING THE ARCTIC AIR WELL...BEING TOO HIGH
TONIGHT ON TEMPS CONSIDERING THE VERY COLD TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. GOING LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT STILL NOT WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY DUE TO WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATER. ALSO...CLEARING THINGS OUT FASTER THAN THE MODELS LATER
TONIGHT AS IS TYPICAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR. EVEN THE PLUMES OFF THE
LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS GREATLY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THUS...DO HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING IN THE WEST...BUT STILL KEPT FLURRIES FOR A WHILE. MOST
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES END IN LOWLANDS BY 06Z...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
BY 10Z.

CLIPPER WEDNESDAY HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS...ITS TRACK COMING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN EAST TO WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF PKB-CKB LINE. THUS...MODELS HAVE MOST
OF THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...SOUTHERN AREA WILL GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE
SUNSHINE WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. THUS...WENT FOR A BIGGER TEMP
RANGE...MILDER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND COLDER IN THE NORTH.
ANY SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCE OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM...AND THEN A QUESTION OF HOW LOW WILL THE TEMPERATURES GO IN
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.

MODELS HAVE FIRMED UP A BIT ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW...NOW TAKING THE
CENTER FROM JUST EAST OF CVG AT 00Z THU TO JUST EAST OF EKN BY 06Z
FRIDAY. BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL FALL ALONG OR NORTH OF THIS
TRACK...AHEAD OF WARM FRONT IN SW WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHERE UVV
IS MAXIMIZED.  THUS HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS...LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL...NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY
SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE EVENING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLD ADVECTION GETS GOING.  LIKELY/CAT POPS THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPS IN MOIST LAYER...WITH
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-15Z NOTED ON EKN BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

GOING WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
1-3 INCHES IN THE USUAL TRIO OF RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...AND
WEBSTER.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS IN THE
FAVORED COUNTIES...AND WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THINK MOS MAY BE UNDERDOING COLD AIR A BIT.  WENT AT
OR BELOW THE COLDER MAV.

BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
H850 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -22C THURSDAY EVENING.  SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF COURSE.  AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD DOWN WITH TIME AS AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH.  GENERALLY
KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  COVERAGE STARTS TO WANE GREATLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH AND RETURN OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AGAIN KEPT VALUES AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MAV.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RISE FOR THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SLOW COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. IF SOME WESTERN COUNTIES ARE ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IF SUCH AN AREA HAS SNOW ON THE GROUND...COULD EVEN SEE
SOME ISOLATED BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA.  WITH
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WIND CHILL LEVELS.
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN MIXED...WITH 5-10KT
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN HWO AS WELL.

SUNSHINE RETURNS FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN...BUT -20C H850
TEMPS REMAIN.  KEPT PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID WHICH WAS ALREADY
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW MEX/MEN NUMBERS.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE LUCKY
TO SEE 15 DEGREES FOR A DAILY HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROPA PASSING OVER THE EASTERN SITES THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTER
SNOW SHOWERS AND NORTHWEST GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING BEHIND IT. IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG THE FRONT COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AND THEN THEY SHOULD MOSTLY END BY
12Z. EXPECT VARYING CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS BUT SOME IFR
AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THEM.

AFTER 13Z VFR CEILINGS INCREASING...BECOMING MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH JUST AFTER 18Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...ARJ

000
FXUS61 KILN 140016
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PROVIDE SNOW AS IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DWINDLING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION EARLY TONIGHT. SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER...CURRENTLY
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...MAY BEGIN IN WESTERN COUNTIES BY 6 AM.
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE RIVER CAN EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THOUGH QPF IS RATHER LOW IN THE ONE TO THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH RANGE...COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A 17 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. STAYED
WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SINCE THERE IS
STILL TIME TO ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA...INCLUDING
COLUMBUS AND DAYTON...CAN EXPECT UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES AROUND CINCINNATI. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
WATCH.

AS EXPECTED...THE CLIPPER WILL EXIT QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STEADY SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY COLD
AIR CROSSING THE WARMER GREAT LAKES WILL PICK UP MOISTURE ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE LAKES WILL USHER IN A
FRIGID AIRMASS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
DEEPEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
WIND CHILLS MAY FALL TO MINUS 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF
LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL SEE A FEW S/W
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT...TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST S/W HAS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING TO
THE NE AT THE SAME TIME. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. LOSES ITS
SHARP GRADIENT BUT REMAINS NEARLY AS STRONG...COVERING A WIDER AREA
OF THE GTLKS REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BROAD TROUGH MOVES S THROUGH THE ERN GTLKS ON TUES. BEHIND
THIS...THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E...LIMITING A
CONTINUED COLD SPELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

MODELLERS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING FAVOR WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SE MOVING SFC LOW WILL CROSS NRN
CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...OVERSPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AND
CUTTING THEM OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A GFS
SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STARTED/ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER/LATER. BY THE END OF THE FCST...ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE
REGION BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SWRN EDGE TO ITS ASSOC PRECIP ON
MON/TUE.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD. FEEL THAT ANY ERROR ON TEMPS
IN THE EXTENDED WOULD BE THAT THEY COULD BE TOO WARM GIVE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FIRST LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NW FLOW
HAS KEPT SHSN ACRS THE TAFS...BUT FETCH OFF LK MI HAS FINALLY
BROKEN. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING THE BACKEDGE OF THE
CLDS/SHSN IS APPROACHING THE WRN EDGE OF THE FA. EXPECT A COUPLE OF
MORE HOURS OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS/SHSN.

CI WILL THEN SPILL OVER THE SFC HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NEXT LOW
IS FCST TO DIVE INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS WERE
CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE LOW FROM N EVV-NR CVG. THE 18Z NAM HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SOUTH...TAKING IT THRU NRN KY TO NR HTS. THE 18Z
GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z PATH.

LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THEREFORE BROUGHT MVFR SN
IN QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS TAFS...AROUND 11Z IN THE W. WITH LOW
TRACKING NR OH RIVER...HEAVIEST SNOWS AND LOWEST VSBYS SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE NRN TAFS.

AS LOW GO BY 18Z-00Z WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W AND WILL INCREASE.
VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A LITTLE.


OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...SITES

000
FXUS61 KCLE 132313
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
613 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6Z...AND CONTINUED THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9Z. SNOW MOVING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA HAS
VIS LESS THAN 1SM...BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRACK OF LOW TOMORROW A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YDY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...EVEN
THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE SNOW
WILL START IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
NIGHT.

GOOD BET FOR LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT
SHOULD DECREASE LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

WENT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ENERGY
DIVES ACROSS OHIO AND INTO PA. A WAVE ON FRIDAY MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ON FRIDAY FOR ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO
NW PA THEN THE NEXT WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE LAST ONE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

EACH WAVE LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LAKE CAN REMAIN OPEN THEN THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOW BELT. COLD AIR WILL
BE BRIEFLY MODIFIED AHEAD OF EACH STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR IN THEIR WAKE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND MAY RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARE BUILDING IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WESTERN TERMINALS TO COME UP TO VFR
ALTHOUGH A SNOW SHOWER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT FROM NORTHWEST WINDS OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. SUBSIDENCE HOWEVER SHOULD TAKE OVER AND DIMINISH THE
THREAT. THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. WITH WESTERN LAKE ERIE MOSTLY ICE
COVERED KCLE SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FURTHER EAST HOWEVER...FROM KCAK
TO KYNG AND KERI WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY IFR
THROUGH 08Z. WINDS WILL BACK AFTER 08Z IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA
AFTER 12Z WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
EACH PASSING WAVE. ONE STORM WILL PASS ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER
ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...TRADED THE GALE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE EAST
HALF. WEST HALD MOSTLY ICE COVERED TO DID NOT ISSUE SCA THERE.

PREVIOUS...WHILE GALES WILL BE MARGINAL AND ONLY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...STILL HAD TO EXTEND GALE WARNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. ITS NOT LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS SO AT 4PM AS
SECONDARY BOUNDARY JUST NOW CROSSING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
LAKE. LAKE IS GETTING GALE FORCE GUSTS. DECREASE WILL BE QUICK
THIS EVENING THOUGH.

BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WILL TAKE WINDS FROM EAST
THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST.

STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH HANGS BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT UP SLIGHTLY AND
THEREFORE HAVE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
TRACK OF WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH TO CURRENT
SYSTEMS...ACROSS OHIO VALLEY.  THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE GALE FORCE
POSSIBILITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK THE SYSTEM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN/TK

000
FXUS61 KILN 132150
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
450 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PROVIDE SNOW AS IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DWINDLING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION EARLY TONIGHT. SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER...CURRENTLY
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...MAY BEGIN IN WESTERN COUNTIES BY 6 AM.
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE RIVER CAN EXPECT A
CHANCE OF SNOW. THOUGH QPF IS RATHER LOW IN THE ONE TO THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH RANGE...COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
WILL RESULT IN ABOUT A 17 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. STAYED
WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SINCE THERE IS
STILL TIME TO ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON LATER MODEL
GUIDANCE. LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA...INCLUDING
COLUMBUS AND DAYTON...CAN EXPECT UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH
PERHAPS 1 TO 2 INCHES AROUND CINCINNATI. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE
WATCH.

AS EXPECTED...THE CLIPPER WILL EXIT QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STEADY SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS...AND VERY COLD
AIR CROSSING THE WARMER GREAT LAKES WILL PICK UP MOISTURE ON A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE LAKES WILL USHER IN A
FRIGID AIRMASS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR WILL BE
DEEPEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW
ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
WARNINGS A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE
WIND CHILLS MAY FALL TO MINUS 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
L/W TROUGH OVER THE EAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A CUTOFF
LOW BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE WILL SEE A FEW S/W
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT...TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST S/W HAS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH THE CUTOFF LOW DISSIPATING AND EXITING TO
THE NE AT THE SAME TIME. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. LOSES ITS
SHARP GRADIENT BUT REMAINS NEARLY AS STRONG...COVERING A WIDER AREA
OF THE GTLKS REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER S/W ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS BROAD TROUGH MOVES S THROUGH THE ERN GTLKS ON TUES. BEHIND
THIS...THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES E...LIMITING A
CONTINUED COLD SPELL OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

MODELLERS ARE STRONGLY INDICATING FAVOR WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TODAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SE MOVING SFC LOW WILL CROSS NRN
CWA SAT AND SAT NIGHT...OVERSPREADING SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT AND
CUTTING THEM OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A GFS
SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STARTED/ENDED PRECIP A LITTLE
EARLIER/LATER. BY THE END OF THE FCST...ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE
REGION BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME SWRN EDGE TO ITS ASSOC PRECIP ON
MON/TUE.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MINOR
TWEAKS WERE MADE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD. FEEL THAT ANY ERROR ON TEMPS
IN THE EXTENDED WOULD BE THAT THEY COULD BE TOO WARM GIVE NRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SNOW COVER.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST. A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
TO BRING SNOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25KTS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS WL IMPROVE THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING AS MID LEVEL S/W SHIFTS EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BACK AFTER 06Z.

SECOND SYSTEM...TO AFFECT THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. MID
LEVEL S/W OVER SRN CANADA TO DROP SE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY
TNGT AND THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED. NAM SOLN TAKES THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW ACRS SRN OHIO ON WED. GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
NAM. SREF MEAN IS SLOWER AND A LTL FURTHER NORTH...MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF TIMING AND TRACK. WL FOLLOW SOLN CLOSER TO THE SREF...WITH
WITH SNOW DEVELOPING INTO THE KDAY DURG THE MRNG AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. WL SPREAD THIS SNOW ACRS THE NRN TAF
SITES WHERE BEST LIFT AND MSTR LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE. FURTHER SOUTH
ACRS KCVG/KLUK...WL ONLY MENTION VCSH THRU 18Z AND THEN BRING MVFR
VSBYS IN AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS61 KCLE 132058
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6Z...AND CONTINUED THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9Z. SNOW MOVING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA HAS
VIS LESS THAN 1SM...BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRACK OF LOW TOMORROW A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YDY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...EVEN
THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE SNOW
WILL START IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
NIGHT.

GOOD BET FOR LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT
SHOULD DECREASE LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

WENT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ENERGY
DIVES ACROSS OHIO AND INTO PA. A WAVE ON FRIDAY MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ON FRIDAY FOR ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO
NW PA THEN THE NEXT WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE LAST ONE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

EACH WAVE LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LAKE CAN REMAIN OPEN THEN THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOW BELT. COLD AIR WILL
BE BRIEFLY MODIFIED AHEAD OF EACH STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR IN THEIR WAKE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND MAY RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A CLE TO MFD LINE WITH AN
AREA OF SNOW NEAR AND IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT TO SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
STEADY SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
BECOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AND MAY BE ABLE TO GET AS FAR EAST AS A CLE TO CAK
LINE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
EVENING BUT APPEARS THEY WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY...BY 03Z AT ALL
LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE INTO OHIO IN THE MORNING
WITH SOME SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS RETURNING. LIKELY TO SEE A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
EACH PASSING WAVE. ONE STORM WILL PASS ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER
ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE GALES WILL BE MARGINAL AND ONLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...STILL HAD TO EXTEND GALE WARNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  ITS NOT LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS SO AT 4PM AS SECONDARY
BOUNDARY JUST NOW CROSSING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE. LAKE IS
GETTING GALE FORCE GUSTS. DECREASE WILL BE QUICK THIS EVENING
THOUGH.

BRIEF STAY OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.  THIS TRACK WILL TAKE WINDS FROM EAST
THROUGH NORTH TO NORTHWEST.

STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH HANGS BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT UP SLIGHTLY AND
THEREFORE HAVE 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
TRACK OF WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH TO CURRENT
SYSTEMS...ACROSS OHIO VALLEY.  THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE GALE FORCE
POSSIBILITY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AND TOOK THE SYSTEM TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

000
FXUS61 KCLE 132054
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6Z...AND CONTINUED THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9Z. SNOW MOVING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA HAS
VIS LESS THAN 1SM...BUT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT...AND THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRACK OF LOW TOMORROW A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YDY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...EVEN
THOUGH ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE SNOW
WILL START IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND IN THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST TOMORROW
NIGHT.

GOOD BET FOR LAKE EFFECT TO SET UP IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT
SHOULD DECREASE LATE AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

WENT MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS ENERGY DIVES
ACROSS OHIO AND INTO PA. A WAVE ON FRIDAY MAY HELP TO ENHANCE THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ON FRIDAY FOR ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA THEN THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE LAST ONE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

EACH WAVE LOOKS TO BRING AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF SNOW WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE LAKE CAN REMAIN OPEN THEN THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOW BELT. COLD AIR WILL
BE BRIEFLY MODIFIED AHEAD OF EACH STORM SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR IN THEIR WAKE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND MAY RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE INTO MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A CLE TO MFD LINE WITH AN
AREA OF SNOW NEAR AND IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT TO SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
STEADY SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
BECOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AND MAY BE ABLE TO GET AS FAR EAST AS A CLE TO CAK
LINE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
EVENING BUT APPEARS THEY WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY...BY 03Z AT ALL
LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE INTO OHIO IN THE MORNING
WITH SOME SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS RETURNING. LIKELY TO SEE A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
EACH PASSING WAVE. ONE STORM WILL PASS ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER
ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE HOISTED THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE FOR
TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.  925 MB WINDS ALREADY
INCREASING IN EARNEST AS LOW LEVEL JET RACES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SINCE AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN WATER TEMPERATURES...I EXPECT WINDS TO
NOT HAVE ANY TROUBLE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  OBSERVATIONS OVER
THE LAKE ALREADY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH GALES DURING THE MORNING.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  HENCE THE SHORT DURATION OF THE GALE
WARNING.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY AS NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. AS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
OHIO...NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY THE LAKE AND
BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST THEN NORTH. I
ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 132039
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
339 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS
BRINING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE HIGHER
RIDGES SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO
FOLLOWED BY BITTER COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 20Z AND WILL
EXIT CWA BY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH ALL
BUT FAR NORTH AND RIDGES WHERE ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ADVISORY CAN BE
EXPECTED. NEXT CLIPPER THEN QUICKLY MOVES TOWARD REGION WEDNESDAY
WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS REGION WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY.
WESTERN CWA MAY SEE AN INCH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST AWAY
FORM BEST MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA BORDER WITH
AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISHING TO
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH SYSTEM
BUT SNOW EQUIVALENT RATIO WILL BE HIGH. WENT WITH A GENERAL 1-3
INCHES ACROSS REGION ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH. LATER SHIFTS WILL FINE TUNE ACCUMULATIONS AND NEED FOR ANY ADVISORY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COLDEST AIR OF YEAR SO FAR WITH MIN
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO AND MAX TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF CWA WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROFF MOVING ACROSS FRIDAY SO
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO MID ATLANTIC
STATES. GENERALLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT. THIS
WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN BODY OF SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF PIT.
STEADY SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND WILL BRING MORE NUMEROUS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL COLD POOL
INSTABILITY SO THERE CAN BE A LINGERING PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
THIRD CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
SNOW AND IFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 132029
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY.  SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ARRIVES
THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAPID CHANGES CONTINUE IN A FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXITING SYSTEM THIS EVENING...AND
WITH A VIGOROUS CLIPPER APPROACHING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FIRST...STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
THE FIRST TASTE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BIG STORY IS THE
FIRST PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN. BELIEVE THIS IS A TYPICAL CASE
OF THE MODELS NOT HANDLING THE ARCTIC AIR WELL...BEING TOO HIGH
TONIGHT ON TEMPS CONSIDERING THE VERY COLD TEMPS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. GOING LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT STILL NOT WARRANTING A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY DUE TO WINDS TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
LATER. ALSO...CLEARING THINGS OUT FASTER THAN THE MODELS LATER
TONIGHT AS IS TYPICAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR. EVEN THE PLUMES OFF THE
LAKES WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS GREATLY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN. THUS...DO HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING IN THE WEST...BUT STILL KEPT FLURRIES FOR A WHILE. MOST
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES END IN LOWLANDS BY 06Z...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
BY 10Z.

CLIPPER WEDNESDAY HANDLED SIMILARLY BY THE MODELS...ITS TRACK COMING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN EAST TO WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF PKB-CKB LINE. THUS...MODELS HAVE MOST
OF THE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...SO HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...SOUTHERN AREA WILL GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE
SUNSHINE WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP. THUS...WENT FOR A BIGGER TEMP
RANGE...MILDER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTH...AND COLDER IN THE NORTH.
ANY SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCE OF NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM...AND THEN A QUESTION OF HOW LOW WILL THE TEMPERATURES GO IN
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.

MODELS HAVE FIRMED UP A BIT ON TRACK OF CLIPPER LOW...NOW TAKING THE
CENTER FROM JUST EAST OF CVG AT 00Z THU TO JUST EAST OF EKN BY 06Z
FRIDAY. BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL FALL ALONG OR NORTH OF THIS
TRACK...AHEAD OF WARM FRONT IN SW WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WHERE UVV
IS MAXIMIZED.  THUS HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS...LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL...NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY
SWEEPS ACROSS IN THE EVENING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS AS
COLD ADVECTION GETS GOING.  LIKELY/CAT POPS THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS DEEP NW FLOW DEVELOPS IN MOIST LAYER...WITH
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH FROM ROUGHLY 06Z-15Z NOTED ON EKN BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

GOING WITH AROUND AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
1-3 INCHES IN THE USUAL TRIO OF RANDOLPH...POCAHONTAS...AND
WEBSTER.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWS IN THE
FAVORED COUNTIES...AND WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THINK MOS MAY BE UNDERDOING COLD AIR A BIT.  WENT AT
OR BELOW THE COLDER MAV.

BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
H850 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -22C THURSDAY EVENING.  SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF COURSE.  AMOUNTS WILL BE HELD DOWN WITH TIME AS AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH.  GENERALLY
KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  COVERAGE STARTS TO WANE GREATLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH
PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH AND RETURN OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AGAIN KEPT VALUES AT OR BELOW THE COLDER MAV.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RISE FOR THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SLOW COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. IF SOME WESTERN COUNTIES ARE ABLE TO
CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS A BIT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY THOUGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IF SUCH AN AREA HAS SNOW ON THE GROUND...COULD EVEN SEE
SOME ISOLATED BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA.  WITH
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR WIND CHILL LEVELS.
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN MIXED...WITH 5-10KT
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN HWO AS WELL.

SUNSHINE RETURNS FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN...BUT -20C H850
TEMPS REMAIN.  KEPT PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID WHICH WAS ALREADY
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW MEX/MEN NUMBERS.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE LUCKY
TO SEE 15 DEGREES FOR A DAILY HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED BITTERLY COLD
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...WHICH ARE BELOW THE MEN AND MEX FOR THE
MOST PART. AGREE WITH THEIR LINE OF THINKING...AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE FOR THE PERIOD. LONG TERM
MODELS...SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF...REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
DROPPED THE SKY COVER EVEN MORE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE SKY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY ENDS UP BEING
CLEAR. IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...HOWEVER...CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MAY OCCUR LATE MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THAT PLAYS OUT. WITH TWO CLIPPERS COMING THROUGH BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...SOME SNOW COVER IS POSSIBLE TO ENHANCE THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE NEXT CLIPPER
MOVES IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD REGIME IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE...WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE 30S BEFORE THE NEXT WAVES PASS
THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
THRU THIS AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 02Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TAPER OFF
LOWLANDS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 05Z. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS SUFFICIENT
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z AND THEN THEY SHOULD
MOSTLY END BY 10Z. EXPECT VARYING CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS
BUT SOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THEM.

AFTER 13Z VFR CEILINGS INCREASING...BECOMING MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH JUST AFTER 18Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KRLX 131849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
141 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CLIPPERS AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY...LATE WEDNESDAY...
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON REAL TIME OBS/RADAR.
SLOWED THE FRONT BY AN HOUR OR TWO...AND PUT IN HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
MOVEMENT OF THIS COLD FRONT FOR TODAY.  THE FRONT IS RIGHT NOW
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN KY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND WILL CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z.  THE RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS WHAT
THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD BE
ENHANCING AS THE FRONT MOVED EASTWARD.  SO WITH THAT LOOKING LIKE IT
WILL HAPPEN...HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH TO CAT LEVELS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS LIKELY...BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION.  THE NEXT
QUESTION THEN IS PCPN TYPE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EXPECT THAT THIS TYPE
OF AIR MASS WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE AREA AS WELL.  SO HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS SOME GETTING CLOSE TO THE MAV/FWC NUMBERS.
THESE TYPE OF VALUES SHOULD ALLOW THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN OR A
MIX.  IF THE PCPN IS HEAVY...IT COULD FALL AS SNOW EVEN AT THE
WARMER READINGS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS...THE COLD AIR QUICKLY COLLAPSES ON THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES HITTING -10C BY 00Z WED.  WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE DEPTH IS THROUGH ABOUT 750 MB...SHOULD
SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z IF NOT 9Z. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH ON A POTENTIAL PLUME OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE GFS.  THE NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO HANDLE THESE
FEATURES BETTER.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE...AND WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE REALLY DRYING OUT AFTER 6Z...THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY 9Z.  WITH SOME CLEARING OF THE SKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OHIO AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR HERE...COULD SEE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS
BY MORNING.  GENERALLY PLAYED ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
HUNG CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER TO HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AS THESE
CLIPPERS HAVE BEEN WARMING TEMPERATURES BETTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INDICATING.

ARCTIC AIR THEN MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCREASED POPS WITH THE INITIAL ARCTIC AIR AS MODELS SHOWING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH INITIALLY. MAV MOS IS ON COLDER SIDE OF
OTHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BASED ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...FEEL THIS COLDER GUIDANCE HAS
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HUDSON BAY VORTEX REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. ARCTIC SURGE STILL ON TRACK TO COMMENCE BEHIND THE ALBERTA
CLIPPER/COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING...FOR SOME
TIME NOW...850HPA TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C AND THICKNESS BELOW 500DKM
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WHAT IS KEY IS THE RELAXING OF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
IN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND IS NOW ON MORE OF A
COURSE FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. FIGURE THAT THE SKY HAS A
BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT NOW...WITH CALM WINDS...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY LOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEFORE SATURDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
REALISTIC.

ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

LARGELY STAYED NEAR HPC NUMBERS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRIDAY
NIGHT. STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND TOOK OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE IN
A FEW LOCALES FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS COURSE...MAY SEE
THESE NUMBERS GO DOWN A BIT MORE AS THE END OF THE WEEK APPROACHES.
MORE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A MODIFYING IMPACT ON THE EXTENT OF THE
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...
THRU THIS AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 02Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TAPER OFF
LOWLANDS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 05Z. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS SUFFICIENT
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z AND THEN THEY SHOULD
MOSTLY END BY 10Z. EXPECT VARYING CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS BUT
SOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THEM.

AFTER 13Z VFR CEILINGS INCREASING...BECOMING MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH JUST AFTER 18Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KILN 131807
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
107 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOWFALL. ARCTIC AIR WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NR SRN LAKE HURON WITH A
SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU WESTERN OHIO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF FA.  WITH UPPER TROF LAGGING
EXPECTED TO SEE CONTD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WL BE LIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS AND DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT
NIGHT FOR AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS WILL REACH THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUESTIONABLE...WITH
AT LEAST 10 MPH NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK AND TIMING...BUT THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND
THE SNOW WILL BE POWDERY. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF I-70...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT...WITH LESS
ALONG AND SOUTH THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN/NW TIER OF
COUNTIES MAY HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF 3 TO 5 INCHES SO WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH 1 PM THOUGH 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER
DISTURBANCE/LE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SUBZERO WITH THE
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS...WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY. WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE OUR COLDEST
NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND HOW MUCH
SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. BASED ON CURRENT MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN WINDS STAYING UP A BIT ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA WHERE THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE
TIGHTER. THIS WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT THE
LATEST THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE THE CASE...TEMPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER THAN ELSEWHERE. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...WILL TRY TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY AND NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL GENERALLY GO WITH LOWS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE AN ISSUE WITH THESE SO WILL JUST GO WITH BROAD BRUSHED
LOW POPS FOR THE LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST. A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
TO BRING SNOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25KTS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS WL IMPROVE THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING AS MID LEVEL S/W SHIFTS EAST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BACK AFTER 06Z.

SECOND SYSTEM...TO AFFECT THE REGION WED AND WED NIGHT. MID
LEVEL S/W OVER SRN CANADA TO DROP SE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY
TNGT AND THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED. NAM SOLN TAKES THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW ACRS SRN OHIO ON WED. GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
NAM. SREF MEAN IS SLOWER AND A LTL FURTHER NORTH...MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF TIMING AND TRACK. WL FOLLOW SOLN CLOSER TO THE SREF...WITH
WITH SNOW DEVELOPING INTO THE KDAY DURG THE MRNG AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. WL SPREAD THIS SNOW ACRS THE NRN TAF
SITES WHERE BEST LIFT AND MSTR LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE. FURTHER SOUTH
ACRS KCVG/KLUK...WL ONLY MENTION VCSH THRU 18Z AND THEN BRING MVFR
VSBYS IN AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS61 KCLE 131753
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE UP
INTO ONTARIO PULLING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DRAWING A REINFORCING PUSH OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR OVER THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT IS ABOUT ON TRACK...PASSING THROUGH TOL AND
FDY AROUND 12Z AND ERI BY 18Z. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW TODAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION IN MAY MIND. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE NORTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE NEW SNOW SO POWDERY PLUS SOME OLD SNOW TO
BLOW AROUND...NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF A CRUST IS ON IT. WITH THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE SNOW ADVISORY GOING. THE WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS.

WILL HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE
TOO HIGH WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE TEENS WEST AND AROUND 20 EXTREME
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. THE WINDS DECREASE
QUICKLY. WE COULD JUST BRIEFLY MEET CRITERIA THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME NO CHANGE TO THAT.

DRY AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP AND WITH THE DRY AIR AND SOME RIDGING
BUILDING IN...DO NOT EXPECT THAT MUCH LAKE EFFECT. WE SHOULD STAY
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DECREASING WINDS AND A SNOW COVER WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

THE SNOW FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
CONCERN ABOUT THE AMOUNTS WHETHER IN THE MANSFIELD AREA IT COULD
REACH 6 INCHES...IT WILL BE CLOSE. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES. THE
AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY WE ARE ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT.
AT THIS TIME NO WATCH FOR THAT BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

ON THURSDAY FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE LAKE EFFECT AS IT
WILL CONTINUE AND ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD DECREASE LATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
SHIFT THE WINDS TO OFFSHORE IN THE SNOW BELT. OVER WESTERN OHIO
THURSDAY SOME SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD OCCUR AND THOSE
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY.

WENT CLOSE TO GRIDDED MOS AND MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURGE OF THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
SENDING THE POLAR JET SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEVELOPING WAVES THAT
TRACK INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH NO REAL RELIEF IN SIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AGAIN KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE DEEP
FREEZE FOR YET ANOTHER WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW AND THE COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS WELL SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FAST MOVING TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  I WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING DURING THAT
PERIOD AS WELL.

LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ON AND OFF AGAIN ACCUMULATING SNOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z WAS LOCATED NEAR A CLE TO MFD LINE WITH AN
AREA OF SNOW NEAR AND IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT TO SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
STEADY SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN
BECOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AND MAY BE ABLE TO GET AS FAR EAST AS A CLE TO CAK
LINE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO THE
EVENING BUT APPEARS THEY WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY...BY 03Z AT ALL
LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE INTO OHIO IN THE MORNING
WITH SOME SNOW AND LOWER CEILINGS RETURNING. LIKELY TO SEE A
RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
EACH PASSING WAVE. ONE STORM WILL PASS ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER
ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE HOISTED THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE FOR
TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.  925 MB WINDS ALREADY
INCREASING IN EARNEST AS LOW LEVEL JET RACES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SINCE AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN WATER TEMPERATURES...I EXPECT WINDS TO
NOT HAVE ANY TROUBLE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  OBSERVATIONS OVER
THE LAKE ALREADY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH GALES DURING THE MORNING.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  HENCE THE SHORT DURATION OF THE GALE
WARNING.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY AS NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. AS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
OHIO...NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY THE LAKE AND
BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST THEN NORTH. I
ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     OHZ011>014-023-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>022-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131700
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1200 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SNOW. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WORKING ACROSS CWA WITH BACK EDGE OF HEAVIER
SNOW NEARING PITTSBURGH. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL IN LINE ALTHOUGH
DID LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS IN SW PA THIS EVENING AS DRYER AIR WORKS
IN. ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH COLUMBUS AT 17Z WILL SWEEP ACROSS REGION
THIS BY EVENING. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH
FROPA AND GUST TO 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT. A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL HELP TO
SHUTDOWN THE LES LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST AND RIDGES.

NEXT CLIPPER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS UL SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS COMING IN LINE WITH BRING SFC LOW RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. THIS TRACK SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WED THROUGH THU
MORNING.

ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN THU. EXPECT FALLING TEMPS
ALL DAY THU AS THE COLDEST AIR THIS SEASON WILL TAKE HOLD.

SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF LATE THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC TEMPS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE TN VALLEY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER THU
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SNOW PACK
WILL PUSH TEMPS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF REGION EARLY FRIDAY.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY. EXPECT
TO SEE SUNSHINE FRIDAY AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

GFS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH BLEND OF SREF MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT BAND OF SNOW WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTH AT 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KTS LATE MORNING AND THEN WEST
NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEN RECENT GEFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LOWLEVEL COLD POOL
INSTABILITY SO THERE CAN BE A LINGERING PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
THIRD CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
SNOW AND IFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131551
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1051 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT SNOW. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AT 16Z WILL SWEEP ACROSS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF FRONT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES STILL LOOKING GOOD.
WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTH TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT. A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL HELP TO
SHUTDOWN THE LES LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST AND RIDGES.

NEXT CLIPPER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS UL SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS COMING IN LINE WITH BRING SFC LOW RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. THIS TRACK SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WED THROUGH THU
MORNING.

ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN THU. EXPECT FALLING TEMPS
ALL DAY THU AS THE COLDEST AIR THIS SEASON WILL TAKE HOLD.

SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF LATE THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC TEMPS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE TN VALLEY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER THU
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SNOW PACK
WILL PUSH TEMPS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF REGION EARLY FRIDAY.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY. EXPECT
TO SEE SUNSHINE FRIDAY AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

GFS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH BLEND OF SREF MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT BAND OF SNOW WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTH AT 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KTS LATE MORNING AND THEN WEST
NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEN RECENT GEFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LOWLEVEL COLD POOL
INSTABILITY SO THERE CAN BE A LINGERING PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
THIRD CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
SNOW AND IFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 131530
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
935 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CLIPPERS AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY...LATE WEDNESDAY...
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON REAL TIME OBS/RADAR.
SLOWED THE FRONT BY AN HOUR OR TWO...AND PUT IN HIGHER WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
MOVEMENT OF THIS COLD FRONT FOR TODAY.  THE FRONT IS RIGHT NOW
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN KY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD REACHING THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z AND WILL CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z.  THE RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS WHAT
THE MODELS WERE INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WOULD BE
ENHANCING AS THE FRONT MOVED EASTWARD.  SO WITH THAT LOOKING LIKE IT
WILL HAPPEN...HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE NORTH TO CAT LEVELS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS LIKELY...BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION.  THE NEXT
QUESTION THEN IS PCPN TYPE.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EXPECT THAT THIS TYPE
OF AIR MASS WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE AREA AS WELL.  SO HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS SOME GETTING CLOSE TO THE MAV/FWC NUMBERS.
THESE TYPE OF VALUES SHOULD ALLOW THE PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN OR A
MIX.  IF THE PCPN IS HEAVY...IT COULD FALL AS SNOW EVEN AT THE
WARMER READINGS DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS...THE COLD AIR QUICKLY COLLAPSES ON THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES HITTING -10C BY 00Z WED.  WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE DEPTH IS THROUGH ABOUT 750 MB...SHOULD
SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z IF NOT 9Z. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH ON A POTENTIAL PLUME OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE GFS.  THE NAM IS
FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...BUT THE GFS SEEMS TO HANDLE THESE
FEATURES BETTER.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE...AND WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE REALLY DRYING OUT AFTER 6Z...THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY 9Z.  WITH SOME CLEARING OF THE SKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OHIO AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR HERE...COULD SEE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS
BY MORNING.  GENERALLY PLAYED ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT
HUNG CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER TO HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AS THESE
CLIPPERS HAVE BEEN WARMING TEMPERATURES BETTER THAN MOS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INDICATING.

ARCTIC AIR THEN MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HAVE
INCREASED POPS WITH THE INITIAL ARCTIC AIR AS MODELS SHOWING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH INITIALLY. MAV MOS IS ON COLDER SIDE OF
OTHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BASED ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS...FEEL THIS COLDER GUIDANCE HAS
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HUDSON BAY VORTEX REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. ARCTIC SURGE STILL ON TRACK TO COMMENCE BEHIND THE ALBERTA
CLIPPER/COLD FRONT FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING...FOR SOME
TIME NOW...850HPA TEMPERATURES BELOW -20C AND THICKNESS BELOW 500DKM
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WHAT IS KEY IS THE RELAXING OF
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
IN PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND IS NOW ON MORE OF A
COURSE FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. FIGURE THAT THE SKY HAS A
BETTER CHANCE OF CLEARING OUT NOW...WITH CALM WINDS...SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY LOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEFORE SATURDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE
REALISTIC.

ANOTHER CLIPPER BRINGS SNOW SHOWER CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

LARGELY STAYED NEAR HPC NUMBERS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH
THE LONG TERM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRIDAY
NIGHT. STAYED ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND TOOK OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE IN
A FEW LOCALES FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS COURSE...MAY SEE
THESE NUMBERS GO DOWN A BIT MORE AS THE END OF THE WEEK APPROACHES.
MORE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A MODIFYING IMPACT ON THE EXTENT OF THE
COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...
THRU THIS AFTERNOON...PREFRONTAL BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT LOCALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 00Z...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF LOWLANDS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE MOISTURE
DEPTH LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z
AND THEN THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 9Z. EXPECT VARYING CONDITIONS WITH
THE SNOW SHOWERS BUT SOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD RECOVER TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE DRY AIR FINALLY ERODES THE CLOUDS AND SOME SITES MAY
REACH VFR CONDITIONS LATE.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV

000
FXUS61 KILN 131513
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1013 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOWFALL. ARCTIC AIR WILL
SETTLE IN BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NR SRN LAKE HURON WITH A
SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU WESTERN OHIO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF FA.  WITH UPPER TROF LAGGING
EXPECTED TO SEE CONTD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WL BE LIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS AND DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT
NIGHT FOR AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS WILL REACH THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUESTIONABLE...WITH
AT LEAST 10 MPH NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK AND TIMING...BUT THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND
THE SNOW WILL BE POWDERY. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF I-70...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT...WITH LESS
ALONG AND SOUTH THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN/NW TIER OF
COUNTIES MAY HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF 3 TO 5 INCHES SO WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH 1 PM THOUGH 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER
DISTURBANCE/LE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SUBZERO WITH THE
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS...WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY. WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE OUR COLDEST
NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND HOW MUCH
SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. BASED ON CURRENT MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN WINDS STAYING UP A BIT ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA WHERE THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE
TIGHTER. THIS WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT THE
LATEST THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE THE CASE...TEMPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER THAN ELSEWHERE. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...WILL TRY TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY AND NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL GENERALLY GO WITH LOWS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE AN ISSUE WITH THESE SO WILL JUST GO WITH BROAD BRUSHED
LOW POPS FOR THE LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ABATE
AS THE BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE
SOME VISIBILITIES GET BELOW 3SM IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. GUSTINESS WILL END
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BACK AFTER
06Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KILN 131229
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
729 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES TODAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MORE SNOWFALL. ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND
THESE SYSTEMS...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE UPDATED TO CUT BACK ON POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND
TRIMMED A LITTLE MORE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BUT UNLESS THEY BECOME
ORGANIZED AND FOCUSED IN ONE AREA EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
TO BE LIGHT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL
BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT
NIGHT FOR AT LEAST WEST CENTRAL OHIO. LOWS WILL REACH THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUESTIONABLE...WITH
AT LEAST 10 MPH NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. SO...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
SWEEPS SE ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK AND TIMING...BUT THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S...AND
THE SNOW WILL BE POWDERY. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF I-70...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 1 TO 3 INCH EVENT...WITH LESS
ALONG AND SOUTH THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN/NW TIER OF
COUNTIES MAY HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF 3 TO 5 INCHES SO WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH 1 PM THOUGH 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING UPPER
DISTURBANCE/LE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SUBZERO WITH THE
GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE LOW.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS...WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY. WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE OUR COLDEST
NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND HOW MUCH
SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. BASED ON CURRENT MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN WINDS STAYING UP A BIT ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA WHERE THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE
TIGHTER. THIS WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE THE AREA TO CLEAR OUT THE
LATEST THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS WERE THE CASE...TEMPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER THAN ELSEWHERE. AT THIS
POINT THOUGH...WILL TRY TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY AND NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL GENERALLY GO WITH LOWS IN THE
ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PERSIST ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL
OBVIOUSLY BE AN ISSUE WITH THESE SO WILL JUST GO WITH BROAD BRUSHED
LOW POPS FOR THE LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL ALSO BRING SOME REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ABATE
AS THE BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. COULD STILL SEE
SOME VISIBILITIES GET BELOW 3SM IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY 18Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN WEST NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. GUSTINESS WILL END
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BACK AFTER
06Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-071-072.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KCLE 131208
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE UP
INTO ONTARIO PULLING ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DRAWING A REINFORCING PUSH OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR OVER THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT IS ABOUT ON TRACK...PASSING THROUGH TOL AND
FDY AROUND 12Z AND ERI BY 18Z. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW TODAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION IN MAY MIND. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE NORTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE NEW SNOW SO POWDERY PLUS SOME OLD SNOW TO
BLOW AROUND...NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF A CRUST IS ON IT. WITH THAT IN
MIND WILL KEEP THE SNOW ADVISORY GOING. THE WINDS ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE LAKE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS.

WILL HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE
TOO HIGH WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE TEENS WEST AND AROUND 20 EXTREME
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT. THE WINDS DECREASE
QUICKLY. WE COULD JUST BRIEFLY MEET CRITERIA THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME NO CHANGE TO THAT.

DRY AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP AND WITH THE DRY AIR AND SOME RIDGING
BUILDING IN...DO NOT EXPECT THAT MUCH LAKE EFFECT. WE SHOULD STAY
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE WITH SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DECREASING WINDS AND A SNOW COVER WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE.

THE SNOW FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
CONCERN ABOUT THE AMOUNTS WHETHER IN THE MANSFIELD AREA IT COULD
REACH 6 INCHES...IT WILL BE CLOSE. AT THIS TIME NO HEADLINES. THE
AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

ONCE THE LOW MOVES BY WE ARE ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT.
AT THIS TIME NO WATCH FOR THAT BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

ON THURSDAY FEEL A BIT MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE LAKE EFFECT AS IT
WILL CONTINUE AND ON THURSDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD DECREASE LATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND
SHIFT THE WINDS TO OFFSHORE IN THE SNOW BELT. OVER WESTERN OHIO
THURSDAY SOME SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD OCCUR AND THOSE
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY.

WENT CLOSE TO GRIDDED MOS AND MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURGE OF THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
SENDING THE POLAR JET SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEVELOPING WAVES THAT
TRACK INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH NO REAL RELIEF IN SIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AGAIN KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE DEEP
FREEZE FOR YET ANOTHER WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW AND THE COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS WELL SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A FAST MOVING TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST
INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  I WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING DURING THAT
PERIOD AS WELL.

LAKE EFFECT AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ON AND OFF AGAIN ACCUMULATING SNOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF SNOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK
AFTER THE FIRST BATCH UNTIL THE SECOND BATCH ARRIVES. ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SECOND BATCH OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF IT. I THINK
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AND SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY BLOW AROUND
WITH SOME MINOR DRIFTING EXPECTED. BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME
REDUCTION IN GROUND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON AT TERMINALS.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO AROUND A
MILE AT TIMES WITH CEILINGS BELOW A 1000 FEET AT TIMES AS WELL.

EXPECTING IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
WILL DRAG ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WOULD EXPECT MORE MVFR/IFR
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS LINGERING IFR IN SNOW
SHOWERS EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE HOISTED THIS MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE FOR
TODAY THROUGH ABOUT 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.  925 MB WINDS ALREADY
INCREASING IN EARNEST AS LOW LEVEL JET RACES NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SINCE AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE LESS THAN WATER TEMPERATURES...I EXPECT WINDS TO
NOT HAVE ANY TROUBLE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  OBSERVATIONS OVER
THE LAKE ALREADY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND THEY WILL
LIKELY REACH GALES DURING THE MORNING.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  HENCE THE SHORT DURATION OF THE GALE
WARNING.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY AS NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. AS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
OHIO...NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY THE LAKE AND
BRING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST THEN NORTH. I
ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     OHZ011>014-023-089.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
     089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-
     006>010-017>022-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ001>003.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 131125
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED STATEMENT ABOUT BLACK ICE CAUSING SLIPPERY SPOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY MIDDAY AND BRING A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT CAN CAUSE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW COVERED PAVEMENTS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
BASED ON RECENT NAM AND RUC MODEL VALUES. WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTH
TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KTS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT. A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL HELP TO
SHUTDOWN THE LES LATE TONIGHT. LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST AND RIDGES.

NEXT CLIPPER WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS UL SHORTWAVE DIGS
INTO THE MIDWEST. MODELS COMING IN LINE WITH BRING SFC LOW RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. THIS TRACK SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WED THROUGH THU
MORNING.

ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE IN THU. EXPECT FALLING TEMPS
ALL DAY THU AS THE COLDEST AIR THIS SEASON WILL TAKE HOLD.

SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF LATE THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC TEMPS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE TN VALLEY THU NIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER THU
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SNOW PACK
WILL PUSH TEMPS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF REGION EARLY FRIDAY.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY. EXPECT
TO SEE SUNSHINE FRIDAY AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO MID
ATLANTIC STATES.

GFS SHOWING ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS SAT AFT
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH BLEND OF SREF MODEL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT BAND OF SNOW WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GO FROM SOUTH AT 10 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KTS LATE MORNING AND THEN WEST
NORTHWEST 15-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ENSUING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEN RECENT GEFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT ANOTHER
CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF IFR AND
SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LOWLEVEL COLD POOL
INSTABILITY SO THERE CAN BE A LINGERING PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS AND SCATTERED IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
THIRD CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF
SNOW AND IFR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$