- What is Water Modeling? Why Does ATSDR Need It?
- What are TCE and PCE? / What are VOCs?
- How will the models work? What will they show?
- Have such models ever been used before?
- What else does ATSDR need to develop a water model?
- How will ATSDR make sure that the modeling is scientifically sound?
- How can I follow the progress?
1. What is Water Modeling? Why Does ATSDR Need It?
Water modeling is a scientific method that will help ATSDR estimate past water-system conditions that no longer exist today.
The Camp Lejeune study requires ATSDR to learn how chemicals may have affected the base's water before 1985. To do so, ASTDR needs certain information about the trichloroethylene (TCE) and tetrachloroethylene (PCE) in Camp Lejeune's groundwater and drinking water. A study of the water's effects in the past would be much less useful without this information. Unfortunately, little of this data currently exists.That is why ATSDR is conducting its water modeling project at Camp Lejeune. This project began in July 2003. The agency is creating two models of the base's water. Specifically, these models will tell ATSDR what the agency needs to know about
1. The movement of groundwater water contaminated with TCE and PCE; and
2. The affected water's distribution through the Camp Lejeune water system.
Using the water modeling method will help ATSDR scientists to "fill in" this missing data. It will also help researchers predict possible past exposures more accurately.
2. What are TCE and PCE? / What are VOCs?
TCE and PCE are known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs). VOCs are a group of chemicals that generally include solvents and fuels. For more information, please view the links below:
TCE (trichloroethylene), which is used primarily to degrease metal parts; and
PCE (tetrachloroethylene, perchloroethylene, or "perc"), a dry-cleaning solvent.
3. How will the models work? What will they show?
The water models will first show the system as it works today. ATSDR will then use that information to recreate how the system worked in the past.
These models will help ATSDR find the potential sources of the past contamination. Knowing the sources will help determine when the water became contaminated. The water model will also show which housing units got contaminated water and which did not. This data will, in turn, help ATSDR identify more clearly which expectant mothers may have been exposed to the contaminated water. The modeling will also help ATSDR estimate the amount of VOCs that may have been in the drinking water.
4. Have such models ever been used before?
Yes. ATSDR and the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services used a similar modeling method for a study of the water in Dover Township, New Jersey. In that study, the agencies investigated the water in connection with childhood leukemias and nervous system cancers that occurred in Dover Township between 1962 and 1996.
Two ATSDR reports describe the Dover study's use of water modeling in detail. These reports can be found on the Internet:
www.atsdr.cdc.gov/HS/dover/dov_t.html and www.atsdr.cdc.gov/HS/dover2/doverhtml
Printed copies of the report are also available from the ATSDR Information Center (1-888-422-8737).
5. What else does ATSDR need to develop a water model?
Successful water modeling projects need information about water-distribution systems, drinking water consumption, and other data. ATSDR is now reviewing some of this data from Camp Lejeune and is working to get the rest.
A March 2004 visit to Camp Lejeune helped identify what specific pieces of information ATSDR still needs. During this visit, ATSDR presented a draft plan to base environmental staff and officers. Agency and USMC personnel also discussed details for conducting field tests.
These tests will use 15 to 25 fire hydrants to obtain data on how quickly contaminants probably moved in the water system.
6. How will ATSDR make sure that the modeling is scientifically sound?
Throughout the project, ATSDR will ask for input and review from technical experts to ensure that the final product is scientifically sound.
In addition, ATSDR will consider the modeling complete only after it undergoes internal review and external peer review.
7. How can I follow the progress?
Updates will be available to the public. They will be posted on ATSDR's Web site on Camp Lejeune.
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