000
FLUS42 KJAX 080848
HWOJAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
448 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-090900-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
448 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

JDS

000
FXUS62 KJAX 081353
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
953 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...HOT WEEKEND COMING UP...

.PUBLIC UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING VERIFIES TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND
UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND THESE FEATURES WILL CAP ACTIVITY TODAY FOR ALL BUT POSSIBLY OUR
NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGE
HOLDING FIRM SOUTH OF AREA. WINDS SHIFT TO NE AFTER COLD FRONT
MOVES THRU MON AND MAY REQUIRE CAUTION HEADLINES OFFSHORE.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY HEIGHTS WILL RISE TODAY AS
MEAN LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ENSUANT
SUBSIDENCE WILL EFFECTIVELY WARM UP AND DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. AMPLE
SUNSHINE EACH DAY PROMISES WIDESPREAD MAXES IN THE LOW 90S...WITH
SOME MID 90 READINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS DRY SUBSTANTIALLY BY TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL FACE
QUITE AN UPHILL BATTLE...CANNOT ALTOGETHER RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES/INTERACTIONS...LESS
THAN 15 PERCENT CHANCE ("SILENT POPS"). A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
(20%) WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY RESULTING
IN A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ENOUGH MOMENTUM FOR THE FRONT TO CLEAR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...OPENING THE DOOR FOR COOLER/DRIER
AIR. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS SLOWER AND ACTUALLY STALLS
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. GRIDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A GFS SOLUTION.

&&

$$

ECZ

000
NWUS52 KJAX 052031
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
431 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE AMBROSE            31.55N 82.97W 
05/05/2009                   COFFEE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            TREE REPORTED DOWN NEAR BIRDSONG ROAD AND SOUTH OF 
            HIGHWAY 32. TIME OF EVENT BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.


&&

$$

ARS

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010358
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2008

CORRECTED SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADER TO READ MIADSAAT

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS THE 2008 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON APPROACHES ITS CONCLUSION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2009.  SHOULD ANY
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DEVELOP DURING THE OFF-SEASON...SPECIAL
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WOULD BE ISSUED...AS NEEDED.
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WONT41 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

000
WTUS82 KJAX 060248
HLSJAX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM HANNA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...HANNA MOVES AWAY FROM COASTAL WATERS...

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-060400-
/O.CAN.KJAX.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1048 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...
WITH HANNA MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN REPLACED
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR MARINE
INTERESTS IN THE FOLLOWING COASTAL WATERS...OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OFFSHORE FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...AWAY FROM THE AREA.

WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE 
BEYOND 20NM OFFSHORE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS OF 7 TO 12 FEET
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE REGARDING TROPICAL STORM HANNA. PLEASE
REFER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON MARINE HAZARDS.

$$

WOLF

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081051
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 32W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-22W AND FROM THE EQUATOR 
TO 3N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY N-NW FLOW 
ALOFT AND DRY STABLE AIR ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...S TO SE WINDS ARE 
FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE N GULF COAST. WINDS ARE 
STRONGEST...15-20 KT...OVER THE WRN WATERS ACCORDING TO BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE 
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT SLIDES SWD 
ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST 
BY SUNDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND NEARBY WATERS N OF 17N 
BETWEEN 63W-77W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS BEING FUELED BY 
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO THE E 
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. STRONG 
ELY TRADES AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN 
THIS AREA ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OVER HISPANIOLA AS 
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS 
E-NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS ARE 
GENERALLY TRANQUIL THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE 
SHALLOW MOISTURE FETCH IS OBSERVED STREAMING IN FROM THE ATLC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ATLC 
DISCUSSION AREA. ONE OF THESE IS OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL 
CUBA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 78W AND UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE E OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THE LOW-LEVEL 
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W 
ATLC WATERS. THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS S OF 23N BETWEEN 
57W-70W...N OF THE ERN GREATER ANTILLES ISLANDS. INSTABILITY AND 
DIFFLUENCE ALONG AND TO THE E OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO... 
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NEARBY WATERS TO THE N. REFER TO 
THE CARIBBEAN SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ATLC IS VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP LAYERED CLOUDINESS SUPPRESSED BY 
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUBTROPICAL E ATLC 
WHERE THE FLOW IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT. OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC... 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE ITCZ E OF 
22W AND OVER AFRICA ENHANCED BY BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND 
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 16N5W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF 
SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD TO ABOUT 50W...ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS 
SAL PRODUCT.

$$
HUFFMAN

000
ACUS01 KWNS 081646
SWODY1
SPC AC 081642

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WRN KY AND NRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH
THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE IA AREA...

...TN/LOWER OH VALLEY...
LONG LIVED BOW ECHO...MOVING EWD AT 60 KT...WAS APPROACHING THE MS
RIVER AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MOSTLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING WITH
TIME...GIVEN THE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR NEAR 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE..SOMETIMES EXTREME. WIND AND HAIL IS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM
UNTIL IT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ROTATING BOW
HEADS.

...NRN TX/SERN OK/AR/NRN LA...
COLD FRONT AT MID MORNING EXTENDED FROM SERN KS SWWD INTO WRN TX
NEAR LBB. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TO NEAR A SGF-ADM-MAF LINE
BY 23Z. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED STRONG CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700
MB...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. DESPITE NO REAL DISCERNABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODELS
DEPICT A SPEED MAX MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT... ESPECIALLY IN AND WEST OF THE
ARKLATEX. ALL OPERATIONAL/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN OK/NRN TX AFTER 22Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
LIKELY TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 C/KM INDICATE VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...CAROLINAS.....
REMNANT MCS FROM WRN NC INTO NERN GA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD KY
INTO OVER KY/TN WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING
A MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...2000 J/KG MLCAPE AS  WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS AT 20
TO 30 KT THROUGH THE LOWER 6 KM MAY SUPPORT A LINEAR SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...IA/NWRN IL AND SWRN WI...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NEB/SD WILL TRACK EWD TO NEAR
THE NEB/IA BORDER BY 00Z. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...500 MB
TEMPERATURES FROM -18 TO -22C...MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...40-50
KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET
MAX SHOULD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

..IMY/GRAMS.. 05/08/2009

000
ACUS02 KWNS 080542
SWODY2
SPC AC 080540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NRN NC...

...NC AND MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NERN STATES SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A WELL-DEVELOPED
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SW ONTARIO AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD EXIST WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. BY 21Z SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
MARYLAND SWD ACROSS VA INTO NRN NC SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME
STEEP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
BE IN AREAS WITH MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
LINE-SEGMENTS. 

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
TN...AR...SE OK AND CNTRL TX. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM...NEW CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT AND ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AT 21Z SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT
30 TO 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
OVER THE ARKLATEX SWWD INTO CNTRL TX WHERE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THREAT COULD EXIST.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT
DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN OK EWD ACROSS AR
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ELEVATED BUT MAY CONTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL DUE TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 05/08/2009

000
ACUS03 KWNS 080709
SWODY3
SPC AC 080707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY...GULF COAST STATES AND WRN SC...

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE
LOCATED FROM NCNTRL TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
BECOMING NUMEROUS IN SOME AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN MOST AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 F...MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. A FEW SUPERCELLS
MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST.

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH AS SFC TEMPS WARM OVER WRN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES AND 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -24 TO -27C. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT AROUND PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON..

..BROYLES.. 05/08/2009

000
ACUS11 KWNS 081609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081608 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-081715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AR AND S CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266...

VALID 081608Z - 081715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266
CONTINUES.

PRIMARY AND MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT HAS SHIFTED INTO TORNADO
WATCH 267. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR MOSTLY HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST IN REMAINING PARTS WW 266...MAINLY
ACROSS NCNTRL AND NW AR NEXT HOUR. WW 266 WILL EXPIRE AT 17Z. UNLESS
STORMS ALONG TRAILING END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION...ANOTHER WW FARTHER SOUTH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

DAMAGING BOW ECHO HAS SHIFTED EAST OF WW 266 AND IS LOCATED FROM
SERN MO SWWD THROUGH NWRN AR. TRAILING END OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS WWD INTO NCNTRL AND NWRN AR AND IS MOVING SWD. MESOSCALE
LIFT PRODUCED BY A STRONG 45-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING
THE TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE SWLY
850-750 MB FLOW IS RESULTING IN NEWD TRANSPORT OF WARM AIR ALOFT
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 23C AT THE BASE OF THE EML. THIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM
SECTOR...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWD.

..DIAL.. 05/08/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36129445 36549359 36689340 37019316 37399272 37329147
            36259164 35249420 35669482 36129445 

000
FNUS52 KJAX 080817
FWFJAX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S WITH SCARCELY A CHANCE OF RAIN. DISPERSIONS WILL
BE HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT NEXT WEEK AS MAX TEMPERATURES
FALL 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND ANY DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY
LOW RH VALUES WILL BE BRIEF. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


GAZ153-154-165-166-082330-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     20           0            0            
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        NONE         NONE         
TEMP                  92           67           93           
RH (%)                38           93           36           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     SW  5                     SW  6        
20FT WND MPH (PM)     S 10         S  8         S 10 G15     
PRECIP DURATION       1                                      
PRECIP BEGIN          2 PM                                   
PRECIP END            8 PM                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.01         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   2            1            1            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6100         400          6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 15        SW 13        W 17         
DISPERSION INDEX      63           5            67           
MAX LVORI                          5                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. EAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND
80. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

FLZ024-025-032-033-082330-
NASSAU-DUVAL-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            
WEATHER TYPE          NONE         NONE         NONE         
TEMP                  92           66           93           
RH (%)                35           91           36           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     SW  5                     SW  6        
20FT WND MPH (PM)     S  9         S  7         S 10         
PRECIP DURATION                                              
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 
PRECIP END                                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6600         300          6400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 15        SW 10        SW 15        
DISPERSION INDEX      62           3            58           
MAX LVORI                          5                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. 

$$

FLZ038-082330-
FLAGLER-
417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR       
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            
WEATHER TYPE          NONE         NONE         NONE         
TEMP                  93           68           93           
RH (%)                35           89           37           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     S  4                      SW  5        
20FT WND MPH (PM)     SE  8        S  6         SE  9        
PRECIP DURATION                                              
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 
PRECIP END                                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6700         300          6600         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 10        S  9         SW  9        
DISPERSION INDEX      60           3            41           
MAX LVORI                          4                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 90.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

FLZ036-037-040-082330-
ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-
417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            
WEATHER TYPE          NONE         NONE         NONE         
TEMP                  93           64           94           
RH (%)                31           95           33           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     SW  4                     SW  4        
20FT WND MPH (PM)     SW  8        S  4         SW  9        
PRECIP DURATION                                              
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 
PRECIP END                                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6900         200          6700         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 15        SW  5        SW 13        
DISPERSION INDEX      61           1            56           
MAX LVORI                          6                         

REMARKS...RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR UP TO FOUR HOURS.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 90. WEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-082330-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-
417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            
WEATHER TYPE          NONE         NONE         NONE         
TEMP                  92           63           93           
RH (%)                34           98           35           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     SW  4                     SW  4        
20FT WND MPH (PM)     SW 10        SW  5        SW  9        
PRECIP DURATION                                              
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 
PRECIP END                                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   1            1            1            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6300         200          6200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 17        SW  5        W 15         
DISPERSION INDEX      68           2            61           
MAX LVORI                          6                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

$$

GAZ132>136-149>152-162>164-082330-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
417 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      SAT          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR       
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0            
WEATHER TYPE          NONE         NONE         NONE         
TEMP                  91           65           92           
RH (%)                36           95           34           
20FT WND MPH (AM)     SW  5                     W  5 G16     
20FT WND MPH (PM)     SW  9 G16    SW  6        SW  9 G18    
PRECIP DURATION                                              
PRECIP BEGIN                                                 
PRECIP END                                                   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         
LAL                   2            1            1            
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 6300         200          6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 18        SW  7        W 18         
DISPERSION INDEX      68           3            68           
MAX LVORI                          6                         

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 

$$

MKT

000
WWUS82 KJAX 251855 AAA
RFWJAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2009

FLZ020>022-035-036-040-252300-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0053.000000T0000Z-090425T2300Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-MARION-
255 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2009

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR DURATIONS
OF 4 TO 5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. DISPERSION VALUES WILL ALSO BE
IN THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

ARS

000
FNUS72 KJAX 081612
SMFJAX

NORTHEAST FLORIDA DISPERSION FORECAST UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

FLZ024-025-032-033-082000-
NASSAU-DUVAL-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR
20FT WND MPH (PM)     S  7
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 10
DISPERSION INDEX      3
MAX LVORI             5

$$

FLZ038-082000-
FLAGLER-
1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR
20FT WND MPH (PM)     S  6
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S  9
DISPERSION INDEX      3
MAX LVORI             4

$$

FLZ036-037-040-082000-
ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-
1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR
20FT WND MPH (PM)     S  4
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW  5
DISPERSION INDEX      1
MAX LVORI             6

$$

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-082000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-
1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR
20FT WND MPH (PM)     SW  5
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW  5
DISPERSION INDEX      2
MAX LVORI             6

$$

000
FZUS52 KJAX 081412
CWFJAX

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1012 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL
OUT TO 60 NM

AMZ400-082030-
SYNOPSIS FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM-
1012 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY.  

$$

AMZ450-452-454-082030-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
1012 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.REST OF TODAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.
.TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND
WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. 
.SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH 10
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A
LIGHT CHOP. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A
LIGHT CHOP. 
.SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND
WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. 
.MONDAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. INLAND
WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.

$$

AMZ470-472-474-082030-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1012 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.REST OF TODAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. 
.TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
.SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. 
.SUNDAY...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO
6 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

ECZ

000
FZUS52 KJAX 080830
SRFJAX

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-082300-
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...
ST AUGUSTINE...PALM COAST...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS
430 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2009

RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: LOW. RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ARE
LIKELY TO BE WEAK BUT MAY POSE A DANGER TO POOR SWIMMERS.
HOWEVER...THEY ARE STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT IN THE VICINITY
OF JETTIES...INLETS...AND PIERS. KNOW HOW TO SWIM AND HEED THE
ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

WIND: SOUTHWEST 1O MPH BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SURF: BREAKERS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 FEET.

WATER TEMPERATURE: MID TO UPPER 70S.

UV INDEX: 11...IN THE EXTREME RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

$$

MKT

000
FZUS72 KJAX 070136
MWSJAX

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

AMZ450-452-470-070230-
936 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...

AT 934 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...10 NM EAST OF FERNANDINA 
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. 

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER 
WAVES...AND A FEW CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY RAINFALL 
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES. YOUR BEST COURSE OF 
ACTION IS TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR...BUT IF YOU ARE CAUGHT ON THE OPEN 
WATER...STAY BELOW DECK AND AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

LAT...LON 3115 8113 3091 8090 3055 8128 3070 8139

$$

SHASHY

000
WHUS52 KJAX 070026
SMWJAX
AMZ450-470-070130-
/O.NEW.KJAX.MA.W.0045.090507T0026Z-090507T0130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
826 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
  NM OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
  OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER 5 NM
  NORTHWEST OF JEKYLL ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...
UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 8096 3121 8092 3098 8145 3108 8154
      3111 8151 3115 8156 3119 8155 3120 8153
      3116 8152 3112 8145 3118 8147 3123 8142
      3114 8139 3121 8132 3125 8133 3123 8130
      3129 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 243DEG 20KT 3112 8147

$$

SHASHY

000
WHUS42 KJAX 190824
CFWJAX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
424 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009


FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-200000-
/O.NEW.KJAX.CF.S.0006.090419T1000Z-090420T0000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
424 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2009

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEACHES...

LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 MPH TO CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
TODAY. A LOW TIDE LATE IN THE MORNING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
RISK.

RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF.
SWIM ONLY AT BEACHES WHERE LIFEGUARDS ARE PRESENT.

A HIGHER THAN NORMAL RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS FOR ANY UPDATES OR WARNINGS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

MKT

000
FGUS52 KALR 081450
RVFJAX
RIVER FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA GA
FORECASTS INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL IN 6 HOUR INCREMENTS
1049 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2009
:

:    FORECAST ISSUED BY FL- SUWANNEE FORECASTER
:
:*************************************************************************
:THREE RIVER ESTATES - Santa Fe River
:FLOOD STAGE  19.0     ACTION STAGE  16.0
:
:LATEST STAGE    16.91 FT AT 800 AM EDT ON 0508
.ER TREF1    0508 E DC200905081049/DH14/HGIFF/DIH6
:24HR QPF APPLIED    8AM        2PM        8PM        2AM
.E1 :0508:              /      16.8/      16.6/      16.5
.E2 :0509:   /      16.3/      16.2/      16.0/      15.8
.E3 :0510:   /      15.7/      15.5/      15.3/      15.2
.E4 :0511:   /      15.0/      14.9/      14.7/      14.6
.E5 :0512:   /      14.5/      14.4/      14.3/      14.2
.E6 :0513:   /      14.0
:6HR QPF VALUES  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:***********************************************************************
:COMMENT
:
:
:
.AR ALR 0508 E Dt200905081049/YIDRZ   10: tw
:
:...END OF MESSAGE...

$$

000
FGUS72 KJAX 131757 CCA
ESFJAX
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125-
GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-061000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
157 PM EST FRI MAR 13 2009

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST 
FLORIDA...

THERE IS A BELOW NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING. 

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

MILD LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW 
NORMAL RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THE 
PAST 6 MONTHS. AS A RESULT...DEEP SOIL MOISTURE HAS NOT RECHARGED 
SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE UP FOR ONGOING DEFICITS. RIVER AND STREAM 
LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING LOW TO VERY LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST 
FLORIDA. STREAMFLOWS HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...A RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM. IN 
FACT...THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT BAXLEY IS IN MINOR FLOOD. HOWEVER...IN 
THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS...STREAMFLOWS WILL 
QUICKLY GO BACK TO A BELOW NORMAL BASEFLOW.   

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES NEAR MODERATE TO MODERATE 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PORTIONS OF MARION COUNTY 
ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. 

...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK 
INDICATES AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH JUNE. A CONTINUATION OF BELOW 
NORMAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF MORE 
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS.  

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARIZATION...

WITH THE END OF THE MAIN FLOOD SEASON WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 
MONTH...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ANY 
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. BASED ON HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN 
LA NINA CYCLES...THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAPPEN. 

THEREFORE...THE FORECAST INDICATES A BELOW NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF 
RIVER FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING FLOOD SEASON ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. 

&&

INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS 
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE 
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL 
SURVEY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE 
SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT. 

FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE 
FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAX
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC

$$

JDS