Tropical Storm DOLLY

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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
0900 UTC MON JUL 21 2008
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO.  THIS TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  87.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE   0SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  87.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  86.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N  89.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.6N  92.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  50SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.4N  94.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N  95.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  40SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N  98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  40SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  87.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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