Tropical Storm DOLLY

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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REFORMED TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA CAST DOUBT ON
THE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.  SINCE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS...AND IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL SOON REAPPEAR...IT IS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE ISSUING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ON DOLLY.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ANALYSES FROM TAFB.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SEEMS TO BE INCREASING ITS SEPARATION DISTANCE
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ALSO DIMINISHING ITS SHEARING
INFLUENCE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF DOLLY AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...PRESAGES INTENSIFICATION.  THE CURRENT NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO SIMILAR
TO THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE CENTER AND THE REFORMATION...INITIAL
MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  MY BEST GUESS...305/13...IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A SLOWING OF
FORWARD SPEED BY 48 HOURS...THEREAFTER...THE KEY PLAYER IN THE
STEERING PATTERN FOR DOLLY IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STRENGTHS AND
CONFIGURATIONS OF THIS RIDGE AROUND 72 HOURS AND DIFFERENT
LATITUDES OF LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. 
ALTHOUGH ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN 2 TO 3
DAYS TIME...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.

ANOTHER NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER
THIS MORNING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 21.3N  87.4W    45 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 22.6N  89.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 23.6N  92.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 24.4N  94.2W    65 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.0N  95.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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