Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES
...545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.  SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.  COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
 
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...90.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG
 
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