Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...SIZE...AND STRUCTURE
THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT
REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL...BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE.
INSTEAD...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI.  SFMR RETRIEVED WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND
BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT.  ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS...PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND.  THE SLOWLY-CHANGING
STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND NONE OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE
GUIDANCE.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL
ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE
COASTLINE...BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL
LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA
REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND
DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE
TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE
THE LAST CYCLE...AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON
THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE...AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES
IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 26.3N  90.4W    85 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 27.1N  92.1W    90 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 28.5N  94.1W    95 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 32.9N  95.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 39.0N  88.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
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FORECASTER KNABB
 
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