Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST
FLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
SAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND
SFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81
KNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75
KNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE
MANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
HURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN
FORECAST.
 
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.  MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48
HOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
THEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE
MORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 23.5N  84.9W    75 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 24.0N  86.0W    80 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 24.7N  87.7W    90 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 25.2N  89.7W   100 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.8N  92.0W   105 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N  96.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 31.5N  98.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0600Z 34.5N  97.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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