Hurricane GUSTAV

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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST
NORTH OF LAFAYETTE.  WSR-88D DATA FROM SLIDELL AND LAKE CHARLES
SHOW THAT THE EYE SEEN AT LANDFALL HAS FILLED AND BEEN REPLACED BY
A SOLID RAIN MASS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT DOPPLER WINDS OF 90-100 KT ALOFT SUGGESTS
THERE SURFACE WINDS ARE PROBABLY NEAR 70 KT.  GUSTAV IS NOW FAR
ENOUGH INLAND THAT IT SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN...AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/14.  GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH 36 HR...WITH MORE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOWN THEREAFTER AS THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THEIR PREVIOUS
RUNS.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS GUSTAV KEEPS A VIABLE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 30.4N  92.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 31.2N  93.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 32.1N  94.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 32.6N  94.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 33.0N  95.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  95.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  95.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  94.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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