Summary

More people are applying for and being awarded Social Security disability benefits than ever before, and these beneficiaries are remaining on the disability rolls for longer periods of time. As a result, disability payments have burgeoned. Changes in beneficiary characteristics have accompanied this growth: the average age of new beneficiaries is now below 50, mental impairment awards to younger workers have risen substantially, and more and more new beneficiaries receive such low disability insurance benefits that they get additional income from the Supplemental Security Income program. These low benefit levels suggest that the new beneficiaries had limited work histories. Higher unemployment probably contributes to increasing applications, and policy changes have produced changes in the numbers and types of beneficiaries. Quantitative data on the impact of these factors are lacking, however, and important questions remain. The upshot is that the Social Security Administration's (SSA) ability to predict future growth and change in the rolls is limited. Better information would also help SSA to determine whether improvements in program management are needed.

GAO found that: (1) the Social Security Administration (SSA) has forecasted that DI rolls will increase to over 6 million disabled workers in the next 10 years; (2) DI applications increased by one-third between 1989 and 1992; (3) almost half the applicants in 1992 succeeded in obtaining benefits; (4) the proportion of beneficiaries enrolled in the DI program for 15 years or more has significantly increased since 1985; (5) the average age of new beneficiaries is below 50; (6) mental impairment awards to younger workers have increased by more than 500 percent; (7) the reasons for DI enrollment increases include higher unemployment rates and policy changes on the numbers and types of beneficiaries; (8) SSA lacks quantitative data on the number of people in the general population that qualify for DI benefits which limits its ability to predict future DI program growth, trends, and changes; and (9) although the Department of Health and Human Services and other agencies are developing research programs, it is too early to assess whether these efforts will provide adequate information on current trends, since initial results will not be available until mid-1994.