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National Weather Service |
Integrate all relevant information and apply situational awareness to make appropriate warning decisions.
Forecasters must make warning decisions which protect life and property and elicit appropriate public response.
1. Be familiar with and consequently apply the methodology of issuing warnings.
2. Using all available observational data, identify the severe weather threats (hail, wind, tornadoes, flash flooding) and the locations where the threat is imminent.
3. Be able to acquire spotter reports, determine their value, and assimilate them into the decision making process.
4. Provide the appropriate interaction with emergency managers as well as law enforcement officials to determine or convey the severe weather threat.
5. Identify decision making styles and their impact on proper decision making.
6. Identify the characteristics of team decision making and coordination, and the impacts of associated breakdowns.
7. Identify the characteristics of situation awareness and their impact on the warning decision. Be able to incorporate sound situation awareness into the decision on whether or not to warn.8. Be able to configure workstation to aid in providing and maintaining a good situation awareness.
Instructional Component 6.1 Review material from the WDM III Workshops.
Instructional Component 6.2 Review material from the Severe Weather/Flash Flood Warning Decision Making Workshops.
Instructional Component 6.3 Complete at least two appropriate Weather Event Simulator (WES) simulations prior to the start of the convective weather searson (in accordance with NWS Instruction 20-201).
Instructional Component 6.4 Review the Warning Methodologies presentation (including instructor notes and an exercise) of the four components of an effective convective warning methodology: 1) severe weather staffing strategies, 2) environmental threat assessment, 3) storm interrogation process, and 4) continual reassessment. Expanded training modules on specific severe weather hazard methodologies will be developed in FY04 as a part of WDTB's Advanced Weather Operations Course (AWOC).
Decision Making and Situational Awareness
Andra, D. L., Jr., E. Quoetone and W. F. Bunting, 2001: Warning decision making: The relative roles of conceptual models, technology, strategy, and forecaster expertise on 3 May 1999. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 559-566.
Fine, Gary Alan, 2002: Authors of the Storm: Some things a sociologist has learned about meteorologists and the weather. NWS Focus, August 19, 2002
Klein, Gary 1998: Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press 1998)
Klein Associates Inc., 2002: Cognitive task analysis of the warning forecaster task: Final report
Russo, J. Edward and Paul J. H. Schoemaker, 1989: Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them (New York, Simon & Schuster 1989)
Shappell, Scott, and D. Wiegmann, 200: Impact of meteorological situation awareness on convective warning decision making. SOO Science and Training Resource Center (SOO/STRC)
Tornado
Tornado Warning Guidance, 2002:
Rasmussen, Eric and collaborators, 2002 (update): Severe Storms Research.
Stumpf, Greg and collaborators, 2002 (update): SWAT's WSR-88D Mesocyclone and Tornado Signature Case Study Page.
Hail
Gerard, A., 1998: Operational observations of Extreme Reflectivity values in Convective Cells. Natl. Wea. Digest, 22, 3-8.
Lemon, Leslie R. 1998: The Radar �Three-Body Scatter Spike�: An Operational Large Hail Signature. Wea Forecasting, 13, 327-340.
Witt, A., and S.P. Nelson, 1991: The use of single-Doppler radar for estimating maximum hailstone size. J. Appl. Meteor., 30, 425-431.
Witt, A., 1996: The Relationship Between Low-Elevation WSR-88D Reflectivity and Hail at the Ground Using Precipitation Observations from the VORTEX Project. Preprints, 18th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Francisco, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 183-185.
High Wind
Caracena, Fernando, R. L. Holle,, and C.A.Doswell III, 2001 (update): Microbursts: A Handbook for Visual Identification
Schmocker, Gary and Ron Przybylinski, 2001 (update): Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence (MARC) Velocity Signature (Preliminary Findings). Preprints, 16th Conf. On Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, AB, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc. 306-311
Flash Flood
Doswell III, Charles A., Harold E. Brooks, and Robert A. Maddox, 1995: Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology. NSSL Web Module
Kelsch, Matthew, 2001 (updated) FLOAT Flash Flood Observing and Awareness Teletraining , COMET Web Module
Weaver, John and Matthew Kelsch, 2001: Urban Flooding: It Can Happen in a Flash!, COMET Web Module
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